College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, August 31st, 2017

College Football Week 1

Ohio State won its last 13 games with Indiana, but last two wins here were by only 7-3 points. Hoosiers covered last six series games. OSU has senior QB with 30 starts, an experienced OL with 80 career starts; Buckeyes are 9-9 as road favorites under Meyer. Indiana has senior QB with 13 starts; its OL has only 40 returning starts. Hoosiers are 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games as a home underdog

Last two years, MAC teams are 15-5-1 vs spread when facing Big 14 squads. Since 2013, Buffalo is 5-11 vs spread as road underdogs; since ’10, they’re 13-17 vs spread in non-MAC games. Bulls have a sop QB, 8 starters back on defense- their OL has 68 career starts. Minnesota has new coach Fleck; his Western Michigan team beat Buffalo 38-0 late last year. Gophers also have a new QB; last two years, they’re 2-8 vs spread as a home favorite.

Memphis has a senior QB (13 starts), an experienced OL with 103 returning starts; they’ve got 9 starters back on offense, but also have their AAC opener with Central Florida on deck. Tigers are 8-11 vs spread in last 19 games as a home favorite. UL-Monroe has 16 starters back and a senior QB; since 2011, they’re 19-15 as a road underdog. Last four years, Sun Belt teams are 7-6 vs spread when playing an AAC squad.

Arizona State is 17-9 vs spread as a home favorite under Graham; ASU has 13 starters back, but its OL has only 41 returning starts- their junior QB has 10 career starts. New Mexico State has 16 starters back, 9 on defense, a senior QB (25 starts), an OL with 43 career starts. Since 2013, Aggies are 8-15 vs spread as a road underdog. Sun Belt teams covered four of their last five matchups with Pac-12 squads.

Central Florida pounded Florida International 53-14 LY, outgaining FIU 501-189, year after they lost 15-14 to the Panthers. UCF has an experienced OL (101 returning starts) but only four starters back on defense- since 2010, they’re 23-14 vs spread as a home favorite. Knights play AAC rival Memphis next. FIU is 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a road underdog; they’ve got a new coach, a senior QB (31 starts) and 15 starters back overall (73 starts on OL). Last four years, AAC teams are 8-6 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent.

Armadillosports.com

Indiana hosts Ohio State
By: StatFox.com

Ohio State’s championship quest begins with a Week 1 trip to Bloomington.

An 11-win season and College Football Playoff berth are little consolation for the way Ohio State’s 2016 season ended, with an embarrassing 31-0 loss to eventual national champion Clemson. Head coach Urban Meyer’s teams are never short on talent, and returning starters QB J.T. Barrett and RB Mike Weber will pace a running game that should be elite. Though the Buckeyes need to replace three starters from the nation’s best secondary a year ago, they are loaded with future pros up front and should feature an improved pass rush in 2017. After six seasons as Indiana’s head coach and back-to-back bowl game appearances, Kevin Wilson resigned amidst an investigation of how he dealt with injured players. Wilson is now the offensive coordinator for the Buckeyes. Hoosiers defensive coordinator Tom Allen was promoted to head coach after IU’s defense showed remarkable improvement in his first season with the school. He returns nine of his starters on that side of the ball. The Hoosiers will miss Wilson’s offensive acumen, and QB Richard Lagow was too mistake-prone last season. He has a solid receiving group to work with, but questions linger in the running game. Indiana hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 1988 (IU is 0-23-1 vs. OSU since), but the Hoosiers have covered the spread in each of their last six meetings. The Buckeyes failed to cover a 28-point spread at home last October, beating the Hoosiers 38-17 as Barrett ran for 137 yards but completed just 9-of-21 passes for 93 yards. Ohio State is 5-0 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in Big Ten openers under Meyer.

Ohio State scored 39.4 points per game last season (13th in the nation), and brought in former Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson as their new offensive coordinator. His backfield is set, with QB J.T. Barrett (2,555 passing yards and 25 TD, 845 rushing yards and 9 TD) capable of improving on an up-and-down year. Managing 6.8 yards per pass attempt (89th in FBS) last season, Barrett loses his top three targets from last season, and the maturation of an inexperienced WR group will be a major factor in OSU’s season. RB Mike Weber averaged 6.0 yards per carry in his 1,096-yard, nine-TD debut season, and there’s plenty of athleticism behind him. Three members of the Buckeyes secondary were first-round picks in April, but the front seven will be as good as any in the nation. The return of DLs Tyquan Lewis (8 sacks, 10.5 TFL, 3 forced fumbles), Nick Bosa (5 sacks, 7 TFL) and Sam Hubbard (3.5 sacks, 8 TFL) will improve the pass rush. LB Jerome Baker (83 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 2 INT) made several huge plays against strong competition, and Chris Worley (4.5 TFL, 5 passes defended) should thrive in his new role at middle linebacker.

Mike DeBord takes over as Indiana’s offensive coordinator after two years running Tennessee’s prolific offense. QB Richard Lagow (3,362 yards, 19 TD, 17 INT) kept the Hoosiers passing game moving in his first season out of junior college, but committed far too many costly turnovers. His top receiver from last season, WR Nick Westbrook (54 receptions, 995 yards, 6 TD) is back. So is WR Simmie Cobbs, who redshirted last year with an ankle injury after amassing 60 receptions and 1,035 yards in 2015. Bellcow RB Devine Redding, the only Hoosier with more than 250 rushing yards last season, left early for the pros, leaving RBs Mike Majette, Cole Gest and Devonte Williams (among others) to rotate in the inexperienced backfield. IU’s 2016 defense allowed 10.4 fewer points per game and 129 fewer yards per game than they did in 2015. Second Team All-Big Ten honorees LB Tegray Scales (126 total tackles, 7 sacks, 23.5 TFL) and CB Rashard Fant (3 INT, 17 pass breakups) are the top defensive players for Indiana. Returning DLs Nate Hoff (2.5 sacks, 6 TFL) and Greg Gooch (5.5 TFL) were instrumental in holding opponents to 3.8 yards per rush (28th in FBS) and 97.5 rushing yards per game (8th). Hybrid LB/DB Marcelino Ball (75 total tackles, 4.5 TFL, 8 pass breakups) impressed in his rookie season, and the entire secondary returns intact.

Ohio State at Indiana
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The Big Ten will be in the spotlight on the first Thursday night of the college football season with a rare conference game in August.

Ohio State visits Indiana to kick off the night in a nationally televised game with some intriguing storylines despite the large spread. Here is a preview of the first big game of the season for Thursday night college football.

Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
Venue: At Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Indiana
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 31, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -20½, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: 2016, at Ohio State (-28) 38, Indiana 17

In five seasons at Ohio State Urban Meyer has cemented his legacy as an all-time great in the college football coaching ranks with a 61-6 record. He led the team to a perfect season in 2012 while ineligible for the postseason and delivered a championship in 2014 in the inaugural College Football Playoff. Surprisingly Ohio State has only won the Big Ten championship once in that five-year run and this year’s team is the favorite to accomplish that feat this season while being considered a prime national title contender.

J.T. Barrett is fewer than 1,200 yards short of becoming the all-time passing leader at Ohio State and he is certainly considered a potential Heisman Trophy finalist after throwing for over 2,500 yards last season while also rushing for 845 yards, accounting for 33 touchdowns. The top rusher from last season Mike Weber is also back for his sophomore season and the Buckeyes have an experienced squad with plenty of motivation to redeem a narrow loss to Penn State as the lone blemish in the 2016 campaign and more notably an embarrassing 31-0 defeat in the national semifinal matchup with Clemson.

Ohio State has a relatively favorable schedule but next week’s home game with Oklahoma looms large in the national picture. While Ohio State hasn’t lost to Indiana since 1988, the recent meetings have featured competitive games with Indiana actually covering each of the last six seasons in this series, albeit as a hefty underdog each year with a +19½ number in 2012 the lowest in that span.

A big storyline heading into this game is Kevin Wilson as the new Ohio State offensive coordinator. Wilson was Indiana’s head coach the past six seasons before a break-up late last season with Wilson taking the Hoosiers from 1-11 in 2011 to back-to-back bowl appearances the past two seasons. Wilson’s defensive coordinator Tom Allen moved up to the head coaching position for the Foster Farms Bowl last December and he leads the Hoosiers moving forward. Allen was previously the defensive coordinator at South Florida before moving to Indiana last season and he was also previously an assistant at Mississippi and Arkansas State.

Indiana hasn’t had a winning season in 2007 as they lost narrowly in bowl games the past two seasons after 6-6 regular season campaigns. Residing in a very competitive Big Ten East has made it tough for Indiana to make big strides but four conference wins last season was the most for the program since 2001. This year’s team has 15 starters back in action while pulling both Illinois and Purdue from the West draw for a relatively favorable path while all three non-conference games are winnable contests.

Richard Lagow had a productive season for the Hoosiers at quarterback in 2016 with the now senior throwing 438 times for over 3,300 yards. He had just 19 touchdowns against 17 interceptions while completing short of 58 percent of his passes as there is room for improvement. Indiana lost its top two rushers from last season but leading receiver Nick Westbrook returns while three of five offensive line starters are back with the team.

Allen led big improvement on the Indiana defense last season cutting the points allowed by the Hoosiers 10 points per game while slashing the yardage average from 509 yards per game allowed to just 380 yards per game allowed, including surrendering only 3.8 yards per rush. The Hoosiers have a reputation as an air-it-out offensive team but this year’s success could hinge on the defense playing well again with nine starters back.

Indiana should have nothing to lose taking a shot at big upset in a spotlight that certainly brings the most attention to an Indiana football opener in many years. Ohio State has a bigger game up next week but also knows it can’t slip up against a foe that has played them tough in recent years while Wilson will perhaps want to make a statement against his old team after a somewhat messy unexpected departure last fall.

Last Season: Indiana opened the Big Ten season with an upset win at home over then #17 Michigan State, at the time the defending Big Ten champions. The next week the Hoosiers had to go to Columbus to face an undefeated Buckeyes team that was ranked #2 in the country. As a four-touchdown underdog Indiana held its own, closing to within seven points with an early third quarter touchdown before Ohio State answered and then sealed the game in the fourth quarter after Indiana went for it on 4th down in its own territory. Ohio State had just a modest yardage edge at 383-281 but the ground edge was dramatic with the Buckeyes posting 290 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per carry while Indiana netted just 99 yards on 2.5 yards per carry. Both teams had a pair of turnovers as neither squad was at its best on offense.

Historical Trends:

Since 1980 Ohio State is 30-2-1 S/U and 18-13-2 ATS in this series but after a 8-0-1 ATS run from 1998 to 2010 Indiana has covered in the past six meetings, though at +28, +19½, +33½, +36½, +21, and +28½.

Two of those games did feature single-score final margins including the 2015 meeting in Bloomington.

Since 1980 Indiana is just 43-63-1 ATS as a home underdog, though they went 12-8-1 in that role the last six years under Wilson, including going 5-2 ATS when dogged by 14 or more points.

The last outright upset for Indiana as a home underdog of this magnitude came in 2006 with a 31-28 win over Iowa at +20.

Ohio State is 28-16-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2005 though they are just 11-9 ATS under Meyer since 2012 with the lone S/U loss last season’s loss at Penn State as a 17½-point favorite.

Ohio State is just 5-11 ATS in the last 16 instances playing as a favorite of 20 or more points with that record only going back to November of 2014 as the Buckeyes are used to this type of favorite pricing.

Thursday's Game of the Day: Ohio State at Indiana
Covers.com

Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers (+21, 57)

Ohio State goes into another season with high expectations and will be tested right out of the gate on the road, as the second-ranked Buckeyes visit Indiana on Thursday for an early Big Ten matchup. J.T. Barrett returns at quarterback for Ohio State with Heisman Trophy aspirations after completing 61.5 percent of his passes, throwing for 24 touchdowns and running for nine scores last season.

“His accuracy and just his energy level now are incredible,” Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer told reporters of Barrett. “He’s providing that energy for everybody. He’s always done that, but … he’s got complete ownership of everything going on in that offense.” Tom Allen, who begins his first full season as coach at Indiana, hopes to end Ohio State’s 22-game winning streak in the series on the way to leading the Hoosiers to their third straight Bowl appearance. Indiana has the benefit of a productive senior quarterback in Richard Lagow (3,362 passing yards in 2016) and an All-American caliber senior linebacker in Tegray Scales (33.5 career tackles for loss). The Hoosiers will have to contain a talented Buckeyes offense that will be led by first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson, who was fired as Indiana’s coach in December after going 26-47 over six years in Bloomington.

LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as 20.5-point favorites and by Wednesday evening that number was bumped slightly to 21. The total hit the betting boards at 53 and has been bet way up to 57. Follow the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Ohio State - WR T. Grimes (Probable, Knee), RB M. Weber (Probable, Hamstring), TE M. Baugh (Probable, Toe), QB J. Burrow (Out Indefinitely, Hand), TE A. Alexander (Out For Season, Knee), DT M. Hill (Out Indefinitely, Suspension).

Indiana - WR S. Cobbs Jr. (Questionable, Possible Suspension), DB B. Fitzgerald (Out For Season, Eligibility), DL N. Sykes (Out For Season, Undisclosed).

WEATHER REPORT: Weather condition should be pretty good for football with cloudy skies and temperatures in the low-70's to upper-60's.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (2016: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Barrett rushed for 100 yards three times while throwing just seven interceptions last year, but he will have to be even better with the departure of his top three receivers from 2016. Parris Campbell could step up to a key swing role on offense and the Buckeyes will depend a lot on sophomore running back Mike Weber (1,096 yards, nine TDs), who is expected to play after being slowed by a hamstring injury in the preseason. Three high draft picks from the secondary must be replaced on a defense that is led by lineman Tyquan Lewis (eight sacks last year) as Ohio State opens the season against a Big Ten team for the first time since 1975.

ABOUT INDIANA (2016: 6-7 SU, 6-7 ATS, 4-9 O/U): Allen will be looking for more efficiency from Lagow, who completed 57.8 percent of his passes in 2016 and had 19 touchdown tosses but also threw 17 interceptions - four in his last two games. The Hoosiers do not have a running back returning that gained at least 250 yards, although they have a talented receiving corps that is led by junior Nick Westbrook (54 catches, 995 yards, six TDs in 2016). The status of junior Simmie Cobbs, who missed most of last season with an injury after registering 1,035 yards on 60 catches in 2015, is uncertain for the opener after he was arrested last month.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 7-3 in Hoosiers last 10 games overall.
* Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road chalk Buckeyes are picking up 62 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 67 percent of the totals wagers.

Thursday's College Football Best Bet
Vegasinsider.com

Ohio State vs. Indiana

Odds: Ohio State (-21); Total 57

After watching teams from the other Power 5 conferences improve and/or test their stock right out of the gates in Week 1 of the season, the Big 10 decided to follow suit and give their schools the same opportunity. So while there still will be a few “cupcake” games for Big 10 programs in the following weeks, we've got plenty of the schools in the conference testing themselves against the likes of the Florida's and Texas' of the world here in Week 1.

But what may be the most intriguing matchup featuring Big 10 schools is the conference game they've got here with Ohio State in Indiana to take on the Hoosiers. Coming right out of the gate with a conference game is a big opportunity for both of these schools to get a leg up on their competition, but with Ohio State ranked #2 in the preseason polls, an Indiana win could come back to bite the entire conference in the ass.

Do the Hoosiers have what it takes to shock the college football landscape on opening night, of will Urban Meyer's Buckeyes squad put the rest of the college football world on notice?

If you don't take significant risks you aren't going to score significant rewards, and a year after having three teams hovering around the CFB playoff picture – and all three teams with strong cases for inclusion – the Big 10 decided to step up their scheduling this year and further up their profile with these tremendous Week 1 matchups.

Opening up the year with a conference game is going to feel a bit different for these players early on this evening, but as three-touchdown road favorites, Ohio State sees it as a tremendous opportunity to further their goal of getting back to the CFB playoff after last year's embarrassing 31-0 loss to Clemson in the semi-finals.

Yet, what makes tonight's Ohio State/Indiana conference tilt even more intriguing is the fact that new Ohio State offensive co-ordinator Kevin Wilson was fired from his head coaching position at Indiana last year. Wilson is known for his offensive mind as he loves to air the ball down the field, and his success offensively with Indiana over the past few years is a big reason why he found this OC position so quickly.

There is no doubt that Wilson is licking his chops at the potential for a little personal revenge tonight being on Ohio State's sideline, but Indiana also knows his “system” inside and out having practised against it for the past five years. That familiarity – for both sides – gives this game that little bit of extra edge, and from a football fan standpoint, it's an exciting battle to watch.

However, from a betting standpoint, the battle between Wilson and his new Ohio State offense against his old program is part of a situation that sets up well for plays on both the side and total. The other big part of that scenario is the fact that Ohio State has a huge game against #7 ranked Oklahoma next week and you know that Meyer and the Buckeyes aren't interested in putting too much of their stuff on film in one week if they don't have too.

That means that Ohio State may be looking to go into Indiana tonight, dominate early, establish a big lead, and then bleed the clock down and get the W. A game script like that is ripe for a backdoor cover from the Hoosiers who still have an explosive offense – at least on paper – and for as much as Wilson would love to stick it to his old program, Indiana would love to stick it to Wilson and his new program just as much.

The Hoosiers know they are the big underdogs here, but with all the excitement surrounding their first game, it being against the hated Buckeyes etc etc, they know they've got nothing to really lose here. Letting it all hang out against a top-ranked team in the nation would be a great start to 2017 for the Hoosiers, win or lose SU, and giving them three TD's here is too many points to pass up.

Finally, regarding the total, the fact that we've got co-ordinators/programs who are very familiar with one another, and a top team looking to stay as “basic” as possible to win and move on to a big game a week from now definitely lends itself to an 'under' wager.

Wilson's offensive system is known for lighting up scoreboards, but this is still the first week with it in Ohio State and there are sure to be some bumps along the way tonight. Indiana's offense won't be as feared without Wilson calling the shots, and as heavy home dogs, the Hoosiers won't be shy about keeping the ball on the ground and bleeding as much clock as they can to shorten the game.

There is no question that Ohio State will likely be a much more prolific and explosive offensive team this year, that should cash plenty of 'overs' but give Wilson and company a few weeks to work out all the kinks before you really start relying on Ohio State to cash those 'over' tickets.

Best Bet: Indiana +21