College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, December 21, 2017

Thursday's Best Bet
December 19, 2017
By Bookmaker

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl Betting Preview
Temple Owls vs Florida International Golden Panthers

The 2017 Gasparilla Bowl will feature some unique circumstances as it's the first-ever meeting between these two programs, and FIU and Temple will do battle at Tropicana Field which is where the MLB's Tampa Bay Rays play.

Having Bowl games at baseball stadiums is nothing new for the NCAA, as this is the 10th consecutive year this Bowl game formerly known as the St Petersburg Bowl will be played at Tropicana. FIU as a program is 0-1 SU in this game with a 20-10 loss to Marshall back in 2011, and this will be Temple's first ever appearance here.

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Temple (-7); Total set at 57

It's the Owls who come in as the favorites despite being in FIU's backyard and having the worse overall record at 6-6 SU (compared to FIU's 8-4 SU mark), and that's mostly because the AAC conference as a whole is more widely respected than Conference USA in terms of overall depth and talent. But early action suggests that bettors believe records do actually matter and “home field” advantage might help the Panthers get the job done as underdogs.

VegasInsider.com is currently showing about 70% of bettors are grabbing the points with FIU and a little over half are taking a shot with the ML as well. Teams from the state of Florida are 2-3 SU all time in this Bowl game with the last win coming in 2012, and “public” underdogs are not ones I prefer to jump on board with, especially when the line has basically held true since opening weeks ago. But this is a bit of a hornets nest that Temple is walking into given the game's being played in Tampa and laying a touchdown in that type of environment is tough to do.

Although these programs have zero history with one another, they did square off against two common opponents this year in Massachusetts and Central Florida. Temple and FIU both got smoked by UCF with the Owls loss looking a little better (45-19 compared to 61-17 for FIU), but Temple was at home for that contest compared to FIU playing the Knights on the road. It's the results against UMass that are more interesting though as both of them were able to beat the Minutemen in home games, as FIU capped off their regular season with a 63-45 win over U Mass, while Temple beat them 29-21 back in Week 3.

On the surface that appears to be advantage FIU, but FIU actually closed as a home underdog of +2.5 in that game while Temple was a -14.5 home favorite in their meeting with the Minutemen. By those spreads you can see that oddsmakers definitely view the Owls in a much better light and will probably be rooting for the Owls to get the SU and ATS win if the action continues to hold on the pace it's shown. As tempting as it is to go against the grain and lay the chalk with Temple here, it's actually the total that I believe presents more value.

Outside of the first three years this Bowl game was played at Tropicana Field, the most recent six contests have shown that points can be hard to come by. Obviously “styles make fights” and you can't compare this year's combatants to the way teams before them played, but since that 2011 St Petersburg Bowl that FIU lost (20-10), only once have we seen more than 57 points scored in this game.

Part of that probably has to do with the fact that it is played on a baseball field (and a crappy baseball field at that) and it takes some adjustment for the players to get footing, sight lines etc. The past two years alone we've not had more than 33 points scored as crowds were sparse and teams really had a tough time “getting up” for a game like this. The crowd issue should be much better this year with FIU involved, but the whole adjustment to being on a baseball field could still be a factor.

While ATS bettors have hit FIU at a 70% clip, the 'over' in this game is seeing more than 90% support as of this writing. Given FIU finished the year with four straight 'overs' and is coming off a game that saw 108 points, and Temple went 5-0 O/U in their last five, you can see why the 'over' is getting a lot of love. But the multiple weeks off likely had a cooling effect on these offenses, and Temple is a team that prefers to play a defensive brand of football in general. Yes, they finished the year with five straight 'overs', but prior to that they began the season on a 1-6 O/U run with all six of those 'unders' coming in Games 2-7. The Owls are also 5-11 O/U in their last 16 games against a winning team, and 3-8 O/U when coming off a SU win.

As touchdown favorites I expect that Temple is the team that dictates and controls the pace for most of this game, and if that's the case, 57 or more points is going to be hard to reach. History is on the side of an 'under play here at Tropicana Field, and with sportsbooks likely needing this game to stay low with a vast majority expecting a shootout, I've got no problem fading the masses with this play.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Under 57 points

Bowls to Bet - Week 2
December 21, 2017
By BetOnline.ag

Three Bowl Games To Supercharge Your Week

There’s no doubt that this coming weekend is when bettors are going to get a little more risky with their NCAAF bowl bets, and we’ll get to those games on Friday. For now, we’ll have to settle for a trio of lesser bowl games that are grading well for gamblers. Temple, UAB and Central Michigan are all top notch plays to help build your bankroll heading in to the weekend.

Find out way below.

Odds per BetOnline.ag

BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL (Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Temple Owls -7.0 over FIU Golden Panthers

Instead of the usual Thursday Night Football garbage that the NFL usually dumps in our living rooms, we’re getting a gritty matchup between two schools trying to end their seasons on a high note.

The Temple Owls didn’t insert quarterback Frank Nutile in to the offence until it was too late, but the junior did himself a world of favors by getting on track quickly. He ended the season with 253.6 yards per game in his last five outings with 11 touchdowns against 6 picks. It’s fair to point out that four of those interceptions came in a blowout loss to UCF which was just an outright bad game by Nutile.

Florida International cobbled together an average season overall using a balanced attack built on the shoulders of a defence led by defensive end Fermin Silva, who racked up 7 sacks, but there’s just not enough juice on this team to really excite bettors. The Panthers went an uneasy 4-2 SU and ATS in the doldrums of the CUSA and are rightfully pegged down here by the oddsmakers against a seven-point spread.

The big reason to bet against Temple is the fact that they’re just 1-3 SU in their last 4 post season appearances, but the new regime under Geoff Collins has finally found its quarterback and is ready to ring in the 2018 campaign by announcing their presence with a big win over an opponent that simply doesn’t have anything remarkable to bank on.

BAHAMAS BOWL (Friday, 12:30 p.m. ET)
UAB Blazers +6.5 over Ohio Bobcats

The UAB Blazers have had an awfully tough, uphill climb as a program that has somehow clawed its way back from extinction to earn a bowl berth. I mean that in literal terms as the program was shutdown in 2014 before receiving a sudden injection of cash and support that helped it get back on its feet.

That storyline in itself is enough to cause you to root for the Blazers, who put together an impressive 8-4 SU and 8-3 ATS season in their first year back. Credit goes to Bill Clark for having the presence and leadership to keep a sinking ship from hitting rock bottom. It’s certainly helped that he hit paydirt with freshman running back Spencer Brown, who has 1,292 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns on the season.

Ohio’s season started off really well, but was blown to smithereens when they lost as heavy favorites to Akron and then followed that up with a 24-31 defeat against Buffalo as road favorites. That downward momentum is enough to jilt bettors at the altar and have them turn their interest in stead to the Blazers. While they boast the 11th best rush defence in the country, and one of the better defensive sides overall, they’ve been brutal at year’s end and remain untrustworthy.

There are a lot of great stories coming out of college football this year, but UAB is most certainly one of them. Their exciting brand of football will meet one of its biggest challenges of the season, but this is a program that has made it a new trend to overcome obstacles whenever – and wherever – they come from.

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL (Friday, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Central Michigan Chippewas +3.5 over Wyoming Cowboys

The big question mark about this game comes in the form of Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, who sustained an injury against Air Force in mid-November but remains on track to compete in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (one of my favorite bowl game names for those of you that care).

Allen has routinely boasted first-round potential in the NFL Draft due to his 6-foot-5 and 233 pound frame, but he’s looked pedestrian on big stages. He posted just 64 passing yards against Oregon and a measly 92 yards against Hawaii’s notoriously leaky defence. This is his big chance to show scouts that he could be the next Carson Wentz, but I’d say that the hype train has left the station with hi standing on the platform.

As for Central Michigan, I am just all in on their relentless passing offence. If Allen wants a real challenge, he’s going to get one in the form of Shane Morris slinging it to wide-receiver Corey Willis. How good is Willis? His 23 touchdowns on the season surpassed current video-game-come-to-life and Steeler Antonio Brown.

Both teams are 7-5 ATS and anyone banking on Wyoming’s odds here are hoping that Allen is both healthy and ready for the spotlight. Problem is that he won’t be able to keep up with Morris, who is sitting on 2,908 passing yards this year already.