Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Houston vs. Florida State
Florida State (10-2 straight up, against the spread) will make its first Chick-Fil-A Bowl appearance since 2010 on Thursday afternoon when it takes on the AAC champion, Houston, at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. As of Wednesday, most books had the Seminoles listed as seven-point favorites with a total of 55 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Cougars were +225 on the money line (risk $100 to win $225).
Houston (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) won the AAC Championship Game by beating Temple by a 24-13 count as a 5.5-point home favorite. Greg Ward led he way by rushing for 148 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.
Tom Herman’s team went unbeaten with Ward in the lineup. When Ward was injured and played sparingly, UH took its only loss of the year 20-17 at UConn. The Cougars were minus four in the turnover department against the Huskies. Ward attempted just four passes and didn’t have a rush while nursing a knee injury.
Houston was an underdog twice during the regular season, winning outright in both spots. The Cougars won a 34-31 decision at Louisville as 13.5-point ‘dogs in Week 2. Then in the regular-season finale, they thumped Navy 52-31 as one-point home puppies.
UH went 6-1 SU against seven bowl-bound opponents, including not-yet-mentioned scalps of Memphis, Cincinnati and Tulsa.
Ward was tabbed as a member of the All-AAC second-team because he played in a league that also included Navy’s Keenan Reynolds and Memphis’s Paxton Lynch. Ward completed 67.8 percent of his passes for 2,589 yards with a 16/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for a team-best 1,047 yards and 19 TDs while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.
UH senior RB Kenneth Farrow was on his way to a second straight season with 1,000-plus rushing yards, but he injured his foot at UConn and had to miss the wins over Navy and Temple. Nevertheless, Farrow rushed for 949 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. He is ‘probable’ vs. FSU and expected to start.
Ward’s favorite target is Demarcus Ayers, a junior WR who earned first-team All-AAC honors. Ayers hauled in 88 receptions for 1,139 yards and six TDs. Junior Chance Allen made 52 catches for 693 yards and four TDs.
Jimbo Fisher’s team won its first six games before losing a heartbreaker at Georgia Tech on a return of a blocked field goal on the game’s final play. Two weeks later, the Seminoles dropped a 23-13 decision at Clemson, but they did take the cash as 12-point ‘dogs.
FSU closed the regular season with three consecutive wins and five straight spread covers. The ‘Noles captured a 27-2 win at Florida as 2.5-point road favorites in the regular-season finale. Dalvin Cook didn’t do much for three quarters, but he exploded for 150 rushing yards and a pair of TDs in the final stanza. He finished the game with 26 carries for 183 yards. Sean Maguire completed 14-of-28 passes for 160 yards and one TD without an interception.
Cook earned first-team All-ACC honors by rushing for 1,658 yards and 18 TDs with a 7.9 YPC average. Cook, a true sophomore who will return in 2016, also had 22 catches for 218 yards and one TD.
Maguire has been the starting QB for the last five games. In fact, Everett Golson didn’t even make the trip to Atlanta for personal reasons. For the season, Maguire completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 1,128 yards with a 9/2 TD-INT ratio.
FSU has a trio of excellent wideouts. Kermit Whitfield had a team-best 53 receptions for 742 yards and six TDs, while Travis Rudolph had 52 catches for 715 yards and six TDs. Jesus Wilson caught 50 balls for 554 yards and two TDs.
FSU owns a 4-2 spread record in six games as a single-digit favorite this year.
FSU’s senior class is attempting to become the first in FBS history to win 50 games in a four-year span.
FSU is fifth in the nation in scoring defense, allowing only 15.8 points per game. The ‘Noles are 16th in total defense, 19th against the pass. The secondary is led by junior CB Jalen Ramsey, who tallied 43 tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack, 10 passes broken up and one fumble recovery for a 36-yard TD return.
FSU starting OT Chad Mavety is ‘out’ due to an illness.
Houston is bowling for a third straight season. The Cougars lost 41-24 to Vanderbilt at the Compass Bowl two season ago. They edged Pitt 35-34 as 3.5-point underdogs at last year’s Armed Forces Bowl.
UH ranks second in the nation with a plus-17 turnover margin. The defense recorded 30 takeaways.
The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for FSU, cashing at a 3-1 clip in its last four games.
The ‘under’ is 7-5-1 overall for the Cougars, hitting at a 5-1 pace in their last six outings.
Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.
FSU battles Houston
By Sportsbook.ag
HOUSTON COUGARS (12-1) vs. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (10-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Florida State -6.5, Total: 55.5
Atlanta plays host to a rockin’ New Year’s Eve match between dynamic No. 18 Houston and streaking No. 9 Florida State, winners of three straight, in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
This game between the Cougars (12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS) and Seminoles (10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS) marks the first meeting between the schools in over 35 years, with Houston holding a commanding 12-2-2 SU edge over Florida State in 16 matches throughout the 1960s and 1970s.
Both teams have betting trends running in their favor in this game. The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons, and 11-2 ATS away from home after an SU win over the same time period. The Seminoles are 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in four or five out of their previous six games over the past three years, and bettors may note that it has paid off 44-14 ATS over the past 10 seasons to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (like Houston) who are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals when they face an opponent (like Florida State) who is playing on the heels of a double-digit road win.
Injuries may be a major factor in this contest, as both schools are hampered by maladies. DB Jeremy Winchester (MCL), backup QB Kyle Postma (knee), OL Colton Freeman (stinger), OG Ben Dew (toe), and RB Ryan Jackson (collarbone) are questionable to play for the Cougars, but the good news is that star RB Kenneth Farrow (ankle) and DB Howard Wilson (knee) have both been upgraded to probable.
The Seminoles have listed LB Lorenzo Phillips (knee) and WR Ermon Lane (knee) as doubtful to play, while TE Jeremy Kerr (concussion), DB Marcus Lewis (concussion), LB Terrance Smith (ankle), LB Reggie Northrup (flu), and OL Chad Mavety (flu) are questionable. The biggest absence will be that of QB Everett Golson though as he did not make the trip to Atlanta due to personal issues.
Houston’s offense has been prolific on the season, generating an impressive 40.6 PPG (12th in nation) and 487 total YPG. QB Greg Ward Jr. and RB Kenneth Farrow are the unquestioned leaders of the 12-win Cougars squad. Ward has completed 206-of-304 passes (67.8%), amassing 2,589 yards, 16 TD and 5 INT through the air, while leading the team with 1,047 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground – good for third-best in the nation.
Farrow has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, but is expected to return in time for New Year’s Eve. The team’s production has suffered a bit in Farrow’s absence, posting 31.0 PPG and 404 YPG over their past three matchups.
Furthermore, this Houston squad is no slouch on defense. The team gives up just 20.5 PPG (25th in FBS) and 381 total YPG, and has performed slightly better on the road this season (18.4 PPG, 341.6 YPG). The unit has generated a healthy 30 turnovers this year, with four games of four takeaways. However, the Seminoles are rarely bit by the turnover bug, as they have seven giveaway-free contests in 2015.
The lack of turnovers has made Florida State’s offense above average this year, producing 32.3 PPG (45th in nation) and 425 total YPG. The team has increased its output to 37.7 PPG in its past three games, but has found itself struggling on the road, averaging a dismal 18.8 PPG and 298 total YPG.
RB Dalvin Cook is the centerpiece of the Seminoles’ offense, leading the ACC in touchdowns (19), rushing yards (1,658), and yards from scrimmage (1,876), and earning the conference record for rushing yards per attempt over a collegiate career (7.0).
The Seminoles’ defense is one of the best in the nation, allowing a scant 15.8 PPG (5th in FBS) and 328 total YPG, and the squad has been on fire recently, holding its opponents to 10.7 PPG and 277 total YPG over its three-game win streak to close out the regular season. This has occurred despite a low amount of takeaways (four) in the past five games, and Houston's offense has multiple turnovers in just 3-of-13 games this season.
Thursday's Semifinals
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Clemson is the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, facing fourth-seeded Oklahoma on New Year’s Eve at the Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens. As of Wednesday, most spots had OU favored by four points with a total of 64. The Tigers were +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).
Oklahoma (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) is gunning for its first national championship since beating FSU 13-2 in the BCS Championship Game at this same venue in January of 2001. That victory over the ‘Noles came in just the second season of Bob Stoops’s tenure. Clemson is looking for its first national title since 1981 when it beat Nebraska 22-15 in the Orange Bowl under the direction of Danny Ford.
Clemson (13-0 SU, 6-7 ATS) won the ACC Championship Game by winning a 45-37 decision over North Carolina in Charlotte. The Tigers covered the number as 6.5-point ‘chalk,’ while the 82 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 67.5-point total. Sophomore QB Deshaun Watson was the catalyst, accounting for five TDs and 420 yards from scrimmage. Watson completed 26-of-42 throws for 289 yards and three TDs compared to one interception. He ran 24 times for 131 yards and two TDs. Wayne Gallman produced 187 rushing yards and one TD on 28 totes. The sophomore RB also had four receptions for 68 yards and one TD. Artavis Scott had seven catches for 96 yards and one TD.
For the season, Watson connected on 69.5 percent of his passes for 3,517 yards with a 30/11 TD-INT ratio. Watson also gets it done with his legs, rushing for 887 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC. Gallman has rushed for a team-high 1,319 yards and 10 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average.
Scott is Watson’s top target, hauling in 84 receptions for 805 yards and five TDs. Jordan Leggett has 34 catches for 442 yards and a team-best seven TD grabs. Charone Peake has 40 catches for 563 yards and five TDs.
Clemson owns seven wins over bowl-bound foes, including victories at Miami (58-0), at North Carolina State (56-41), vs. Notre Dame (24-22) and at Louisville (20-17).
Clemson is suddenly dealing with a major distraction after announcing the suspensions of three players on Wednesday morning. The most significant loss is that of WR Deon Cain, who has made 34 receptions for 582 yards and five TDs. Cain won’t play in the CFP finals if Clemson advances, either. The players violated unspecified team rules.
Oklahoma has nine wins by double-digit margins. The Sooners went unbeaten in nine games against bowl-bound opponents. They suffered their lone loss of the year by a 24-17 score against Texas.
OU’s top wins include victories at Baylor (44-24), at Oklahoma State (58-23), at Kansas State (55-0), at Tennessee (31-24 in overtime), vs. TCU (30-29) and vs. West Virginia (44-24).
As this space noted this past summer, Stoops made a brilliant hire when he plucked offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley away from East Carolina. Riley’s Air-Raid offense at ECU led QB Shane Carden and Justin Hardy to the top of the record books in the program’s history. In fact, Hardy became the all-time leading receiver at ECU before his senior season even started, while Carden surpassed all the records previously set by long-time NFL veteran QB David Garrard.
Riley’s impact on the offense was instant and spectacular. OU finished second in the nation in scoring, averaging 45.8 PPG. The Sooners rank sixth in total offense and sophomore QB Baker Mayfield enjoyed a breakout campaign. The transfer from Texas Tech has connected on 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with a 35/5 TD-INT ratio. Mayfield is a dynamic scrambler as well, rushing for 420 yards and seven TDs.
Oklahoma sophomore RB Samaje Perine enjoyed another outstanding season, rushing for 1,291 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC. If Perine can match his 2015 numbers as a junior, he’ll surpass the great Billy Sims as OU’s all-time leading rusher. Joe Washington, the former Washington Redskins RB who often subbed for John Riggins in 3rd-and-long situation, ranks second on OU’s all-time rushing list, while Adrian Peterson is third.
OU has one of the country’s top wideouts in Sterling Shepard, who has 79 receptions for 1,201 yards and 11 TDs. Dede Westbrook, a true freshman, has 42 catches for 674 yards and four TDs.
Oklahoma owns a 4-0 spread record as a single-digit ‘chalk’ this season.
Clemson is in the underdog role for the first time this season. The last time the Tigers were underdogs was last year’s Orange Bowl where they smashed Oklahoma by a 40-6 count as five-point puppies. With Watson out with an injured knee, Cliff Stoudt threw for 319 yards and three TDs without an interception. Scott had eight receptions for 114 yards and one TD, while the defense forced five interceptions, including a 47-yard pick-six by Ben Boulware.
The ‘over’ is 8-4 overall for OU, hitting at an 8-2 clip since the ‘under’ appeared in its first two games.
The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for Clemson after cashing at a 7-2 clip in its last nine games.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
Alabama vs. Michigan State
Alabama and Michigan State are seeded No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, going into the CFP semifinals. These schools will collide at AT&T Stadium in Arlington on Thursday night for an 8:00 p.m. Eastern kick on ESPN. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Alabama (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 45.5 points. The Spartans were +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).
Alabama won the SEC for a second straight season and the third time in four years by collecting a 29-15 win over Florida at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta earlier this month. The Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread as a 16.5-point favorite. Derrick Henry rushed for 189 yards and one TD on 44 workmanlike carries. Jake Coker completed 18-of-26 passes for 204 yards and two TDs without an interception. Calvin Ridley had eight receptions for 102 yards, while Ardarius Steward had four catches for 64 yards, including a 32-yard TD grab in major traffic that gave the Tide its first two-possession lead (22-7) of the game late in the third quarter.
Henry won the Heisman Trophy, becoming the second player in Alabama’s storied football history to do so. The true junior was spectacular all season, rushing for 1,986 yards and 23 TDs while averaging 5.9 YPC. Henry also has 10 catches for 97 yards. He came up big in the biggest games, producing 271 rushing yards at Auburn, 236 at Texas A&M, 210 vs. LSU and 204 at Mississippi State. Henry ran for at least two TDs in seven different games.
Coker struggled in September, but he has played much better down the stretch. For the season, the FSU transfer has completed 65.7 percent of his throws for 2,489 yards with a 17/8 TD-INT ratio. Coker has five TD passes without an interception in the last three games.
Coker has one of the nation’s top group of wideouts, including freshman sensation Calvin Ridley. The five-star recruit has been as advertised, bringing down a team-high 75 receptions for 893 yards and five TDs. Stewart has 54 catches for 600 yards and four TDs.
Don’t be surprised if versatile RB/WR Kenyan Drake is a major part of Lane Kiffin’s offensive gameplan. Drake broke his arm in early November at Mississippi State and wasn’t much of a factor when he returned against the Gators. For the season, Drake produced 906 all-purpose yards and two TDs. Those stats don’t do the senior playmaker justice, however. Drake has 22 career TDs and 1,434 career rushing yards.
Since losing 43-37 at home to Ole Miss in Week 3, Alabama has won 10 in a row. Nine of those victories have come by margins of 13 points or more. The Tide’s toughest test since the Rebels came in a 19-14 non-covering home win over Tennessee when Henry’s TD late in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference.
Michigan State (12-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) is led by senior QB Connor Cook, who has a 24/5 TD-INT ratio. For his career, Cook has thrown 71 TD passes compared to just 20 interceptions. The Spartans are 34-4 in Cook’s 38 career starts. He has completed 56.9 percent of his passes this year for 2,911 yards.
Cook’s favorite target is Aaron Burbridge, who has 79 catches for 1,209 yards and seven TDs. Macgarrett Kings has 38 receptions for 492 yards and five TDs, while R.J. Shelton has 41 grabs for 484 yards and four TDs. Cook likes to look for junior TE Josiah Price down in the red zone. Price has a team-best six TD catches.
The departure of workhorse RB Jeremy Langford led to a three-man platoon system that has proven to be effective this year. True freshman L.J. Scott has rushed for a team-high 691 yards and 11 TDs with a 4.9 YPC average. Gerald Holmes has run for 534 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC, while Madre London has 489 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.3 YPC average.
Michigan State won outright at Ohio St. without Cook, who didn’t play due to an injured shoulder. The Spartans won 17-14 thanks to a dominant defensive performance, as they held the Buckeyes to merely 132 yards of total offense. They wrapped up the Big Ten East title by beating Penn St. 55-16 as 7.5-point home favorite on Nov. 28.
Michigan State won the Big Ten Championship Game 16-13 over Iowa as a three-point ‘chalk.’ Trailing 13-9 with less than 10 minutes left against the then-unbeaten Hawkeyes, Cook led the Spartans on a 22-play, 82-yard drive that consumed more than nine minutes of clock. Scott broke multiple tackles before lunging into the end zone from one yard out with 27 seconds left for the game-winning score. Several plays before, Cook ran for two yards on a QB sneak from inside the five on fourth and one. Cook had crucial completions to Price for 13 yards and Burbridge for 16 yards during the game-winning march.
Michigan State has been an underdog 17 times since 2011, compiling an incredible 14-3 spread record with 11 outright victories. The Spartans have won four straight bowl games as underdogs, including last year’s 42-41 comeback win over Baylor as 2.5-point ‘dogs at the Cotton Bowl. They trailed by 20 early in the fourth quarter before rallying for the thrilling victory.
Michigan St. owns quality wins galore, including victories vs. Oregon (31-28), at Michigan (27-23) and vs. Indiana (52-26). The Spartans’ only loss came in controversial fashion when Nebraska won a 39-38 decision in Lincoln thanks to a long pass in which the receiver caught the ball after going out of bounds.
Alabama’s stop unit is led by All-American LB Reggie Ragland, who has a team-high 90 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, six passes broken up and six QB hurries. Junior DE Jonathan Allen has a team-best 10 sacks, while junior safety Eddie Jackson has a team-high five interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes. The Tide ranks third in the country in scoring defense, limiting opponents to just 14.4 PPG. They are second in total defense, first versus the run and 18th against the pass.
Michigan State is ranked No. 21 in the country in scoring defense, giving up 20.5 PPG. The Spartans are 24th in total defense and most important, they are ninth in rush defense, allowing 113.1 yards per game. When they faced an elite RB like Henry at Ohio State, Ezekiel Elliott was held to a season-low 33 rushing yards on 12 carries. Elliott ran for at least 101 yards in every other game for the Buckeyes this year.
These teams met at the 2010 Capital One Bowl in Orlando. Alabama cruised on that New Year's Day to a 49-7 win as an eight-point favorite.
Michigan State has played at this venue once in the aforementioned win over Baylor last season. Alabama has opened the season here twice, thumping Michigan in 2012 and Wisconsin (35-17) earlier this year.
MSU head coach Mark Dantonio served as an assistant on Nick Saban's staff in East Lansing from 1995-1999.
The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Spartans, cashing at a 3-1 clip in their last four outings. This is MSU’s third-lowest total of the season. The ‘over’ has been a winner in both of its previous games that had a total in the 40s.
The ‘under’ is 8-5 overall for Alabama, but it has seen the ‘over’ hit in two of its last three games. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Tide’s five games that had totals in the 40s.
Thursday's College Football Playoff
By Covers.com
(3) Oklahoma Sooners vs. Clemson Tigers (+4, 63.5)
Top-ranked Clemson is the lone remaining unbeaten squad and fourth-ranked Oklahoma has reeled off seven straight victories as they enter their College Football Playoff semifinal clash in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Dec. 31 at Miami Gardens, Fla. The Tigers are bidding for their first national championship since going 12-0 in 1981, while the Sooners are chasing their first national title since going 13-0 in 2000. Oklahoma's lone loss came to Texas on Oct. 10, while Clemson has won 16 consecutive games since losing to Georgia Tech in mid-November of the 2014 campaign.
There is no disputing the notion that the top two quarterbacks in the country are playing in this contest as Clemson sophomore Deshaun Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy balloting and Oklahoma junior Baker Mayfield placed fourth with the top two finishers both being running back. Watson is an all-around nightmare for defensive coordinators as he has passed for 3,512 yards and 30 touchdowns and rushed for 887 yards and 11 scores while Mayfield has passed for 3,389 yards and 35 touchdowns while rushing for 420 yards and seven scores. "I think he's exceptional," Sooners coach Bob Stoops told reporters of Watson. "What a great athlete - thrower, runner, everything. I really have a great respect and appreciation for what a quality player he is."
One aspect both teams are downplaying is that Clemson put a 40-6 thumping on the Sooners in last season's Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Fla. Watson missed the game with a knee injury and Oklahoma committed five turnovers and was never in the contest but Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has been insisting that nobody should be bringing up that game. "That just absolutely has nothing to do with this year," Swinney told reporters. "They're playing as good as anybody in the country right now, maybe the best of anybody in the country, so we know they'll be fired up to play us."
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Clemson as a 3-point dog before that moved to +4. The total is down to 63.5 from the opening 65.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s with a 28 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow toward the west endzone at around 9 mph.
INJURY REPORT:
Oklahoma - CB Jordan Thomas (Probable, personal), RB Daniel Brooks (Out, academics), DE Gabriel Campbell (Out, academics), S Prentice McKinney (Out, academics), RB Rodney Anderson (Out, leg), T Kenyon Frison (Out, suspension).
Clemson - WR Artavis Scott (Probable, knee), WR Mike Williams (Out, neck), S Korrin Wiggins (Out, knee).
ABOUT OKLAHOMA (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Sooners have averaged 52 points during their seven-game winning streak as senior receiver Sterling Shepard and sophomore running back Samaje Perine complement Mayfield's prowess. Shepard has 79 receptions for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdown catches and ranks second in school history in receptions (226) and receiving yardage (3,395) while Perine has rushed for 1,291 yards and 15 touchdowns and has 3,004 career rushing yards to join Adrian Peterson (2004-05) as the only players to top 3,000 in their first two seasons as Sooners. Oklahoma allows 20.8 points per game and boasts solid players in senior outside linebacker Eric Striker (team-high 16 tackles for losses and 7.5 sacks), junior cornerback Zack Sanchez (team-leading six interceptions), sophomore cornerback Jordan Thomas (five interceptions), junior inside linebacker Dominique Alexander (team-best 91 tackles) and senior defensive end Charles Tapper (seven sacks).
ABOUT CLEMSON (13-0 SU, 6-7 ATS, 8-5 O/U): The Tigers are hoping standout sophomore receiver Artavis Scott (84 receptions, 805 yards) will be in top shape by the bowl game after he underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair meniscus cartilage in his right knee earlier this month. Sophomore running back Wayne Gallman has been superb with 1,332 yards and 10 touchdowns and is 14 yards shy of surpassing the school mark set by Raymond Priester in 1996. Clemson allows 20.2 points per game with standout junior defensive end Shaq Lawson delivering a dominating season - he has a team-best 9.5 sacks and leads the nation with 22.5 tackles for losses - while senior middle linebacker B.J. Goodson (team-high 91 tackles), junior cornerback Condrea Tankersley (team-leading five interceptions) and junior defensive end Kevin Dodd (eight sacks) also are having strong campaigns.
TRENDS:
* Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Sooners last 16 games in December.
* Under is 5-0 in Tigers last five vs. Big 12.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers users are backing Clemson.
(4) Michigan State Spartans vs. (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-10, 46.5)
Second-ranked Alabama is in the College Football Playoff semifinals for the second straight season as it faces third-ranked Michigan State in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31 at Arlington, Texas. The Crimson Tide were ousted by Ohio State in last season's semifinals and are again matched up against a Big Ten program. Only a one-point loss to Nebraska in early November prevented the Spartans from entering the playoffs with an unbeaten record while Alabama has won 10 straight games since losing to Ole Miss in mid-September.
Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook said his sprained throwing shoulder is improving and will be close to 100 percent New Year's Eve. Cook has a 34-4 career mark as a starter, has thrown a school-record 71 career touchdown passes and ranks second in passing yards (8,984) behind Kirk Cousins (9,131 from 2008-11). "I'm pretty much doing everything in practice now," Cook told reporters in mid-December. "I'm pretty confident."
Alabama junior running back Derrick Henry topped 100 yards nine times - and 200 on four occasions - while rushing for an SEC-record 1,986 yards to go with 23 touchdowns en route to winning the Heisman Trophy. The Spartans know they will be seeing a lot of Henry with the football as he carried it a combined 90 times over the Crimson Tide's last two games. "Whatever I have to do to help my team win," Henry told reporters. "I don't care how many carries it is. As long as it's successful and we've got the ball, I'm all for it."
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Alabama as 8.5-point faves but that now sits at -10. The total is down to 46.5 after opening at 49.
INJURY REPORT:
Michigan State - S R.J. Williamson (Probable, bicep), QB Connor Cook (Probable, shoulder), FB Trevon Pendleton (Questionable, leg), DB Jalen Watts-Jackson (Out for season, hip), OL Dennis Finley (Out for season, leg), CB Vayante Copeland (Out for season, back), LB Ed Davis (Out for season, knee).
Alabama - WR Chris Black (Out for season, ankle), WR Robert Foster (Out for season, shoulder).
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (12-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Cook has completed 56.9 percent of his passes and been intercepted only five times and has a big-time target to work with in senior Aaron Burbridge, who has 1,219 yards and seven touchdowns on a school-record 80 receptions. Freshman LJ Scott rushed for a team-high 691 yards and 11 touchdowns and his last score was the biggest as he kept his legs churning on third-and-goal to score the decisive 1-yard touchdown to beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game. The Spartans allow 20.5 points per game with senior defensive end Shilique Calhoun (10.5 sacks) leading the way while sophomore nose tackle Malik McDowell (12 tackles for losses) and junior middle linebacker Riley Bullough (team-most 95 tackles) are also standout players.
ABOUT ALABAMA (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Henry carries the offense and takes pressure off of senior quarterback Jake Coker, who has thrown for 2,489 yards and 17 touchdowns against eight interceptions. Freshman receiver Calvin Ridley emerged as a solid target with 75 receptions for 893 yards to help the Crimson Tide average 34.1 points and complement a defense that allows only 14.4 per game. Junior strong safety Eddie Jackson has a team-leading five interceptions - he has returned them for 230 yards and two touchdowns - while senior middle linebacker Reggie Ragland has recorded a team-high 90 tackles and junior defensive Jonathan Allen has a team-best 10 sacks.
TRENDS:
* Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
* Over is 8-2 in Spartans last 10 non-conference games.
* Over is 8-1 in Crimson Tide last nine bowl games.
CONSENSUS: Sixty-seven percent of Covers users are backing Michigan State.
Peach Bowl
Florida State had 6-game bowl win streak snapped LY; Seminoles are without QB Golson (death in family), but Maguire threw ball 145 times, is capable. FSU scored 16-13 points in its two losses; eight of 13 Houston foes scored 20+. Cougars have to be happy coach Herman didn't bolt for greener pastures. ACC teams are 3-4 in bowls this year; over last three years, they're 2-7 vs spread as bowl favorites. AAC squads are 1-6 in bowls this year, 2-10 last two years; they covered once in last seven games as a bowl dog. Three of last five Peach Bowls were decided by 4 or less points.
Cotton Bowl
Alabama waxed Michigan State 49-7 in a bowl five years ago; in four bowls since, Spartans won all four games, all as an underdog, all by 4 or less points. MSU beat Michigan/Ohio State this year in games they never led until final play. Spartans covered 12 of last 15 games as an underdog. Crimson Tide lost their last two bowls, giving up 45-42 points; they covered four of last five tilts overall. SEC teams are 3-1 in bowls this year; only loser used its #3 QB- SEC bowl favorites are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 chances. Last five years, SEC teams are 11-6 vs Big 14 teams in bowls. .
Orange Bowl
Clemson (+5) pounded Oklahoma 40-6 in bowl LY, passing for 319 yards with +5 turnover ratio; Tigers won last three bowls, scoring 35 ppg, all as underdog; they have four senior starters on O-line. Sooners won last seven games, six by 10+ points, since they were upset by Texas. Oklahoma is 3-2 in last five bowls. Big X teams are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as bowl favorites. ACC teams are 3-4 in bowls this year: over last four years, they're 8-7 as bowl underdogs. ACC teams won last three Orange Bowls; underdogs won SU in three of last four.
Armadillosports.com