College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday January, 3

Fiesta Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Oregon Ducks vs. Kansas State Wildcats (+8, 75.5)

FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. Oregon and Kansas State could have been meeting in the BCS title game if not for both teams losing on Nov. 17. Instead, they form perhaps the top non-championship game pairing of the bowl season. The No. 3 Ducks had their title hopes derailed by Stanford while the No. 6 Wildcats were routed by Baylor.

2. Offensive theatrics should be plentiful with both teams having powerful attacks. Oregon ranks second in scoring at 50.8 points and fourth in total offense at 550.1 yards while featuring star runner Kenjon Barner (1,624 rushing yards). Kansas State averages 40.7 points and 411.2 yards with quarterback Collin Klein – third in Heisman Trophy balloting – leading the way.

3. Big plays on defense often tip the scales during the bowl season and both teams are among the best in the nation in takeaways. Oregon leads the nation with 39 and Kansas State has forced 31 turnovers. The Ducks have returned four interceptions for touchdown. The Wildcats have only committed 10 miscues in 12 games.

LINE: Oregon opened at -8 and was bet up as high as -9.5 but money on KSU dropped the spread back to -8. The total moved from 77 to 75.5.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games.
* Under is 5-2 in Ducks' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 5-2 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, 7-5 ATS): The Wildcats have lost four consecutive bowl games dating back to the 2002 Holiday Bowl during coach Bill Snyder’s first stint at the school. Klein is a multipurpose threat with 2,490 yards and 15 passing touchdowns to go with 890 yards and 22 scores on the ground. Junior John Hubert has rushed for 15 touchdowns to go with a team-leading 892 rushing yards, while senior wideout Chris Harper has a team-best 50 receptions for 786 yards. Harper began his career as a quarterback at Oregon before transferring. Kansas State allows only 99.3 rushing yards per game and boasts big-time talent in senior middle linebacker Arthur Brown – the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year – junior free safety Ty Zimmerman (five interceptions) and senior defensive end Meshak Williams (8.5 sacks). Senior cornerback Allen Chapman and senior cornerback Nigel Malone also have five interceptions apiece.

ABOUT OREGON (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12, 9-2-1 ATS): The Ducks could be playing their final game under coach Chip Kelly as rumors swirl that he is headed to the NFL. Redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrived under Kelly’s progressive system, completing 69.9 percent of his passes for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns. Sophomore running back De’Anthony Thomas had 16 total touchdowns, including 11 on the ground while complementing Barner. Senior defensive end Dion Jordan is the leader of the defense with 10.5 tackles for losses. Junior defensive end Taylor Hart has a team-best eight sacks while sophomore cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu has blossomed as a huge playmaker. Ekpre-Olomu is tied for the team lead with sophomore middle linebacker Kiko Alonso for most interceptions (four) and also has forced six fumbles.

Fiesta Bowl Preview
January 2, 2013
By Sportsbook

Kansas State (11-1) vs. Oregon (11-1)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -8, 75.5
Opening Line & Total: Ducks -8.5, 77

Two teams who lost BCS title game chances in the final month of the season will lock horns Thursday when Kansas State and Oregon play in the Fiesta Bowl.

KSU is looking for its first bowl win since 2002, a period of four straight postseason defeats. Oregon is playing in its fourth straight BCS Bowl, losing two of the first three. The Wildcats have just two ATS defeats all year (10-2 ATS), and the Ducks are also a great bet recently, going 6-1 ATS since starting the season 1-4 ATS. K-State averages 40.7 PPG (9th in FBS) thanks to 37 total touchdowns from QB Collin Klein. Oregon puts up 50.8 PPG (2nd in FBS), powered by 323 rushing YPG (2nd in nation), including 135 rushing YPG (5th in FBS) from Kenjon Barner. The Ducks will relish this chance to show the world that they deserved a spot in the BCS title game, with their lone defeat coming in overtime to Rose Bowl champion Stanford. Oregon won its 11 other games by an average margin of 31.7 PPG, taking each game by at least 11 points.

K-State has had a phenomenal year, but its defense has been shaky in three of the past four games, allowing 417 passing yards to Oklahoma State, 52 points and 580 yards at Baylor, and 314 passing yards to Texas’ back-up QB Case McCoy. That’s not going to fly against the Ducks who have posted 53.0 PPG and 582 total YPG in their past four road games, three of whom already played in bowls this postseason (Arizona State, USC and Oregon State).

Although Klein scored two touchdowns in last year's Cotton Bowl, he completed just 16-of-30 passes for 173 yards and 1 INT, while rushing for a mere 42 yards on 24 carries. He's thrown only 3 TD passes and 5 INT over the past four contests. If he can't get going, the Wildcats don't have much else. Junior RB John Hubert leads KSU in rushing (892 yards) and has 15 rushing touchdowns, but he has failed to reach 80 rushing yards in a game since Oct. 6, a span of seven games. The passing offense isn't great, ranking 84th in the nation with 212 YPG, but Klein was able to gain 184 yards on just eight completions (23.0 yards per completion) in the last game against Texas.

Defensively, this team has been gashed for 993 total yards over the past two games, allowing 342 rushing yards to Baylor and 314 passing yards to the Longhorns. But for the season, KSU ranks 24th in the nation in scoring defense (21.1 PPG) and a respectable 43rd in total defense (375 YPG) considering the offensive-rich Big 12 that it plays in. But the Wildcats lead the nation in turnover margin (+1.8 per game) with 31 takeaways and just 10 giveaways, and they also have an elite return game, leading all FBS teams in both kick return average (29.2) and punt return average (22.0).

Oregon freshman QB Marcus Mariota has been outstanding all season, ranking sixth in FBS in passing efficiency (165.36). He's thrown for 2,511 yards (8.0 YPA), 30 TD and just 6 INT this season, tossing at least 4 TD passes four times. Mariota has also been a big part of Oregon's potent ground game, rushing for 690 yards (7.0 YPC) and 4 TD. Top RB Kenjon Barner has rushed for 6.5 yards per carry with 21 touchdowns this season, as he's carried the football at least 20 times on eight separate occasions this year. He hasn't been great in his past two bowl games though, combining for 62 yards on 18 carries (3.4 YPC). The same cannot be said for De'Anthony Thomas, who rushed for 155 yards on just two carries (91-yd TD, 64-yd TD) in last year's Rose Bowl win, while adding 125 kick return yards and 34 receiving yards. Thomas has 16 TD in 2012 with five multi-touchdown games, including 122 rushing yards and 3 TD in the regular-season finale at Oregon State.

The Ducks defense has been solid this season, allowing 22.0 PPG (26th in nation) with just one Pac-12 team surpassing 26 points (USC had 51 on Nov. 3). They will have their work cut out in stopping the run though, as they allowed 190+ rushing yards in four of the past seven games. However, Oregon is tied with Kent State for the nation's lead in forced turnovers with 38, taking away at least three footballs in eight games this season, including each of the past four contests.

Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview
Bby Rob Veno
Sportsmemo.com

Kansas State vs. Oregon
CRIS Opener: Oregon -7.5 O/U 75
CRIS Current: Oregon -8 O/U 75.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oregon -9.5

Blue collar meets Hollywood here as hard working, grinding Kansas State tries to upset flamboyant, star studded Oregon. Motivation is certainly not an issue on either side of the field since each of these teams has a lot to prove. The outside distraction of Oregon head coach Chip Kelly and NFL rumors that have surrounded him for weeks is obviously bothering the media and fan base. Whether the constant talk about Kelly’s future distracts Oregon’s on field play in this game is difficult to project. K-State has no such distractions and they’re determined to erase the memory of last year’s Cotton Bowl loss to Arkansas. The one thing that appearance did for KSU is reestablish what it’s like to play with an extremely long layoff so this 32-day span shouldn’t be harmful.

Kansas State is no stranger to defending up-tempo offenses but head coach Bill Snyder has discussed some concern about the speed Oregon has in conjunction with the extreme tempo they play at. The few teams that have had success slowing Oregon down on the scoreboard the past four years have all had terrific defensive front sevens but KSU doesn’t own one the caliber of Ohio State in 2009, Auburn 2010, California 2010 and Stanford this season. The Wildcats have been successful against opposing Big XII rushing attacks allowing only 127.9 yards per game but none run the up-tempo, run oriented spread which Oregon features. This will be a real good chance to see how fast and how disciplined Kansas State’s run defense is. Fatigue and depth are likely to be real issues in K-State’s front seven. The defense yielded an average of 436.4 total yards and 6.1 yards per play in five of their final six games and all were versus spread, fast paced attacks. The time off could help them get some energy back and they will have star safety Ty Zimmerman for this game. Snyder said his team started slow offensively in games this season because they liked to decipher what the opposing defense was doing against them (KSU scored only 78 1st quarter points). However, Kansas State plans to come out firing here knowing that they’ll have to score plenty to defeat the Ducks. Quarterback Collin Klein poses a real threat to Oregon’s defense which is not used to tackling bruising, run style quarterbacks. The Ducks will have to swarm to the ball in this contest but Kansas State is very good at deception and misdirection which will probably lead to some explosive plays. I would also be a bit concerned with the tackling of Oregon’s secondary. While they’re very good at ball hawking, this Kansas State offense can get runners in space and one-on-one situations. Kansas State is an extremely sound blocking team which will test Oregon’s defense physically.

Oregon was asked to lay -8.5 points or more in every game this season and after a slow start mostly due to letting up, they covered six of their final seven. On the other hand, Kansas State was an underdog only twice this season and won both games straight up on the road (Oklahoma and West Virginia). They are always dangerous in this type of situation. The play calling could prove to be a real difference maker in this one. Kelly has shown that he does not deviate from his plan to establish the run and Kansas State is almost equally as stubborn. Will Kansas State enter this game with a “throw caution to the wind” game plan? Despite his stoic and boring sideline demeanor, Snyder is not adverse to trick plays and going deep into the playbook. As great of a front runner as Oregon is, it will be interesting to see if K-State can come back if they get behind quickly. In order to avoid an early deficit, Kansas State will have to come off the bus already adjusted to the Ducks game speed. Oregon is outstanding at protecting the football (only 1 turnover every 52.4 plays) so unlike most of this season, KSU’s propensity for takeaways (32) may not play a major role here. Oregon -5 for the first half is worth a look.

Fiesta Bowl

73-year old Snyder covered 11 of last 13 games as underdog; K-State has eight senior starters on defense, none on offensive line. Biggest question in this game is whether talk about Chip Kelly going to NFL will distract Oregon, which is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 42-45-56 points in wins, 17-19 in losses (Kelly 1-2 in bowls). Oregon scored 42+ points in all its wins, 14 in OT loss to Stanford; they're 6-1 vs spread last seven games as a favorite. K-State's only loss was as a 12-point favorite at Baylor (52-24); they won SU both times they were underdog this year, but lost last four bowls, allowing 33.8 ppg. Wildcats lost 35-28 to Ohio State in this game in '03. K-State's Klein is senior QB who was banged up late in year but had time to recover; Ducks' QB Mariota is redshirt freshman. Underdogs covered five of last six Fiesta Bowls, where domed stadium guarantees fast track-- 68-79 points were scored here last two years. Under is 17-13 in bowls, faves are 13-16 against spread.

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