College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 10th, 2016.
N CAROLINA (7 - 2) at DUKE (3 - 6) - 11/10/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
N CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE (3 - 5) at GA SOUTHERN (4 - 5) - 11/10/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
UTAH (7 - 2) at ARIZONA ST (5 - 4) - 11/10/2016, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 26-46 ATS (-24.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
UTAH is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA ST is 1-1 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE vs. GA SOUTHERN
Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 6 games
Ga Southern is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
Ga Southern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NORTH CAROLINA vs. DUKE
North Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Duke
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Duke
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Duke's last 5 games
Duke is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
UTAH vs. ARIZONA STATE
Utah is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 9 games on the road
Arizona State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Arizona State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina at Duke
North Carolina: 7-19 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Duke: 23-10 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63
UL Lafayette at Georgia Southern
UL Lafayette: 29-15 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Georgia S: 15-6 UNDER against conference opponents
Utah at Arizona State
Utah: 26-46 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10
Arizona St: 17-6 ATS in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
NCAAF Week 11
North Carolina is 4-0 on road this season, with wins at Florida St, Miami; Tar Heels are 5-1 in last six games as a road favorite, 2-0 this year. UNC is 16-3 in its last 19 games with Duke, winning 66-31/45-20 last two years. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games. Tar Heels are 8-1 in last nine visits here; three of their last four wins at Duke were by 8 or less points. Blue Devils allowed 836 rushing yards in losing last three games, by 10-3-3 points. Duke is 11-7 in its last 18 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year. ACC home underdogs are 7-7 this season.
Georgia Southern lost five of last six games, is 1-6 vs spread in last seven; Eagles lost 37-27 at Ole Miss five days ago, outgained 441-401- they’re 12-9 as a favorite since moving up to I-A, 1-3 this season. UL-Lafayette lost at home to Idaho Saturday, tis 4th loss in last five games; they’re 3-5 this year with two losses in OT. Cajuns are 1-2 on road this year with both losses in OT; they’re 4-10 in last 14 games as a home underdog, 0-2 this year. This is first time teams have met in last 20 years. Sun Belt home favorites are 6-9 vs spread in league play.
Arizona State lost four of last five games after a 4-0 start; they allowed 43.7 pts/game in losing last three games, by 24-5-19 points. ASU needs one more win to be bowl eligible; they allowed 734 yards in last game, a 54-35 loss to slumping Oregon. Utah is 8-2 but lost last game at home to Washington; Utes are 3-1 on road, with last three away games decided by 7 or less points. Utah is 3-3 as road favorite the last four years, 1-1 this year. ASU is 7-3-1 in its last 11 games as a home underdog, 3-3 under Graham, 2-0 this year. Pac-12 home teams are 22-14 vs spread this season, 9-5 as home dogs.
Armadillosports.com
Thursday's Pac-12 Action
By Sportsbook.ag
Utah Utes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Utah (-5.5); Total set at 58.5
The Pac-12 may not be getting much respect from the playoff selection committee in recent days – we will see if Washington gets into that #4 spot tonight – and part of that is because of the logjam atop the South division.
Colorado, USC and Utah will all be fighting one another down to the wire for the right to play in that conference Championship game, and this week it's Utah who hits the field first as they are in Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are trying to get to that critical six-win mark to become Bowl eligible themselves this year and they have no problem playing spoiler to Utah's division championship hopes.
Utah got their first win in five tries since joining the Pac-12 Conference vs Arizona State a season ago as the 34-18 victory was one of their better performances on the year.
The Utes have much higher hopes this season and need to rebound off a seven-point loss to undefeated Washington at the end of October. Utah was in that game with the Huskies all the way until the end as it was tied late in the 4th quarter before a 58-yard punt return TD by Washington broke the deadlock and held up as the winning score.
It was a solid ATS victory for Utah though, who've have covered the number in three of their last four, but things haven't come easy for them on the road in conference play. Utah is 2-1 SU on the road against Pac-12 rivals, but just 1-2 ATS in those games, and 0-2 ATS when laying points.
It's not like those two ATS losses came to quality opponents either as California - a 4-5 SU team – beat the Utes outright, and 2-7 SU Oregon State lost 19-14 to Utah when the Utes were laying 7.5 points.
There is no question that Arizona State is the best of the bunch in that regard and Utah better tighten things up away from home this week if they want a shot at the Pac-12 South crown.
ASU has been off since late October as well, and they've likely used that extra time off to tighten up some defensive deficiencies that have plagued them the past few weeks. Arizona State has given up 54, 37, and 40 points in their past three games – all losses – and that kind of play isn't going to give them a chance here.
Thankfully, the program has a history of keeping Utah's offense in check (aside from last year) as the Utes never scored more than 19 points against the Sun Devils in the four conference meetings prior to a season ago.
Three of the five meetings between these two in Pac-12 play have cashed 'under' tickets, and with extra rest on both sides this week, total bettors could see a similar result.
However, grabbing the points with the home dog in this spot is the better betting play this week because of Utah's struggles on the road against sub-par teams.
This is Arizona State's final home game of the season and the entire side should play inspired football. The Sun Devils are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight at home and have been a solid team for bettors all year with a 9-4 ATS run going over their past 13 games.
ASU is also 4-1 ATS when coming off a loss and typically have no problems playing up to the level of their competition with a 7-1 ATS run going against winning teams.
Throw in the fact that it's Senior Day at ASU, a sixth win would make them Bowl eligible, and Utah's 1-4 ATS run when coming off a loss and this game should come right down to the wire.
Best Bet: Take Arizona State +5.5
Pac-12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Utah at Arizona State
Utah heads to Tempe looking to get back on track after a 31-24 setback against Washington two weeks ago. Now, they'll take on a skidding Arizona State team which has dropped three in a row, including an ugly 54-35 setback at Oregon last time out Oct. 29. The Utes head in 3-1 ATS over the past four outings, and 5-2 ATS over the past seven games. Arizona State has covered every other game over the past eight outings, and they're 5-4 ATS overall this season. The Sun Devils are 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS at home this season, and 9-4 ATS in their past 13 games overall. AZ State is also 7-1 ATS in their past eight against winning teams, and 8-0 ATS in their past eight home games. The 'over' is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 7-2 ATS in their past nine games on the road. The 'over' is 11-2 in the past 13 Thursday appearances for Arizona State, and 5-2 in their past seven games at home.
ACC Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
North Carolina at Duke
The Battle for the Victory Bell takes place at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham Thursday night, and it is expected to be a chilly night with temperatures around 50 degrees. But the action will be heated on the field, as UNC looks to keep its hopes alive for a Coastal Division win and appearance in the ACC Championship Game. Duke, meanwhile, is simply looking to keep their slim hopes for bowl eligibility alive, as they need to win out. The home team has covered in five of the past seven meetings, and Duke is about an 11-point underdog as of Wednesday morning. The 'under' is 4-1 in UNC's past five ACC games, and 7-0 in their past seven Thursday appearances. For Duke, the under is 4-1 in their past five conference tilts, 5-0 in their past five at home and 5-1 in their past six against a team with a winning record.
North Carolina at Duke
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
With college basketball set to start this week one of the best basketball rivalries will take place on the football field as North Carolina makes the short trip northeast to Durham in Thursday’s ACC Coastal matchup.
These teams have split the past four meetings and while both teams look likely to fall short of last season’s success, this is still an important late season game on both sides. Here is a preview of the Thursday night ESPN game between North Carolina and Duke.
Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 10, 7:30 PM ET
Line: North Carolina -10½, Over/Under 60
Last Meeting: 2015, at North Carolina (-7½) 66, Duke 31
North Carolina fell just eight points short of the ACC championship last season and the Tar Heels are on pace for another successful season as they will be favored to win out to reach 10-2. The lone ACC loss came to Virginia Tech in an ugly 34-3 early October result in Chapel Hill. That tiebreaker puts the Hokies in control of the ACC Coastal division unless they lose one of two remaining home games vs. Georgia Tech or Virginia. North Carolina also lost its opening game against Georgia in Atlanta.
David Cutcliffe has brought the Duke program out of the basement with four consecutive bowl seasons the past four years. That run looks poised to end with a 3-6 mark this season and difficult games remaining. This is the home finale in Durham before the Blue Devils go on the road at Pittsburgh and at Miami in the final two weeks. Duke is 0-5 in ACC play but they did pick up a prominent win over Notre Dame and all six losses this season have come by 14 or fewer points. Duke is just 2-3 S/U at home this season with the wins coming vs. FCS NC Central and Army.
Both of these nearby rivals are 6-3 ATS on the season with the Tar Heels riding four straight covers and Duke having won against the spread in each of four games. The yardage statistics paint a clear edge for North Carolina with the Tar Heels posting 6.8 yards per play with huge passing numbers of over 300 yards per game in the air. Junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky has 19 touchdowns against just two interceptions this season while completing over 70 percent of his passes to emerge as a top NFL prospect.
Quarterback play has been an issue for Duke this season as projected starter senior Thomas Sirk was lost for the season in late August. Redshirt freshman Daniel Jones stepped into the starting role with no experience and while he has thrown for over 2,000 yards he has thrown nine interceptions. Duke has lacked the complimentary running game they have had in past seasons gaining only 4.1 yards per rush and Duke has wound up out-gained in seven of eight FBS games this season.
Duke won back-to-back games in this series as an underdog in 2012 and 2013 but the past two seasons North Carolina has won in blowout results including a 66-31 win for the Tar Heels last season with both teams posting over 500 yards. North Carolina won and covered in all four road games this season including winning convincingly twice in the road favorite role. Duke was a home underdog for the first time this season last week hosting Virginia Tech, losing just 24-21 with a comeback effort after falling behind 21-7, holding Virginia Tech below 400 yards in a relatively even game.
Larry Fedora has now turned in five consecutive bowl seasons for North Carolina as a program that underachieved and was caught in constant transition much of the past two decades has some stability looking like one of the top programs on the Coastal side of the ACC with most having forgotten about the cloud of potential NCAA sanctions that has lingered over the program the past two years.
The Tar Heels have lost as favorites in bowl action the past two seasons however and a prominent bowl slot might become available to this team with a strong finish. A New Year’s Six slot is a bit of long shot as Louisville looks destined to be the clear #1 draw out of the ACC behind Clemson who is expected to make the College Football Playoff. A Citrus Bowl or Belk Bowl slot vs. a SEC squad would be an appealing draw for the program or the Tar Heels could return to Orlando and the Russell Athletic Bowl vs. a Big XII squad where they lost to Baylor last season.
For Duke winning out to make the postseason looks like a severe long shot but Jones has proven to be a dynamic dual-threat quarterback that gained valuable experience to lead this team the next few seasons. Duke has marquee non-conference games early next season vs. Northwestern and Baylor as a bounce back season in 2017 will be possible especially considering how close most of this year’s defeats were including impressive close games with Louisville and Virginia Tech. A win over rival North Carolina would certainly provide a boost to the season even with the worst Blue Devils record since 2011.
Historical Trends:
North Carolina has won 23 of the last 26 meetings S/U while winning ATS in 12 of the past 19 meetings but Duke is 6-5 ATS in the last 11 meetings though just 3-5 under Cutcliffe.
Since Cutcliffe took over in 2008, Duke is 13-12 ATS as a home underdog including an 8-4 run in the last 12 instances, picking up four S/U upsets in those eight+ seasons with the only upset as a double-digit home underdog coming vs. the Tar Heels in 2012.
Regardless of venue, Duke is 36-29-2 ATS as an underdog since 2008 including a current 16-5 run going back to early 2013.
North Carolina is 6-1 ATS the last seven games as a road favorite with the last S/U loss in that role coming in this matchup in 2012.
North Carolina is 11-8-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite under Fedora though this will be just the fourth instance for the Tar Heels laying double-digits on the road, going 1-2 in those instances.