College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 17th, 2016.
LOUISVILLE (9 - 1) at HOUSTON (8 - 2) - 11/17/2016, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST (5 - 4) at TROY (8 - 1) - 11/17/2016, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
LOUISVILLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Louisville's last 15 games
Louisville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Louisville
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
ARKANSAS STATE vs. TROY
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arkansas State's last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
Troy is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
Louisville at Houston
Louisville: 33-17 OVER in road games after playing 2 straight conference games
Houston: 9-21 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Arkansas State at Troy
Arkansas St: 10-2 ATS after playing a conference game
Troy: 3-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
NCAAF Week 12
Louisville won its last five games since Clemson loss by average score of 41-14; Cardinals were upset 34-31 at home by Houston LY- they beat Cougars 20-13 in ’13- this is their first visit here since 2004. Cardinals are 3-2 as road favorites this year, with wins by 34-31-7-45 points, plus the 42-36 loss at Clemson. Houston started season by upsetting Oklahoma, but later lost at Navy, SMU and is 0-5 vs spread in its last five games. Cougars passed for 320+ yards in five of first six games, but have been under 260 in last four. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AAC home underdogs are 3-4.
Troy is 8-1, with only loss 30-24 at Clemson; they covered only one of last four games, are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 46-10-21-4 points- they had tough 28-24 win over Appalachian State five days ago, while ASU cruised in its game Saturday. Arkansas State won its last three games with Troy, beating Trojans 41-34 in each of last two meetings; teams split last four meetings played here. ASU won/covered its last five games after an 0-4 start, with only road win in that stretch 31-16 (-4.5) at Georgia State. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in league play this year.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAF Week 12
Louisville won its last five games since Clemson loss by average score of 41-14; Cardinals were upset 34-31 at home by Houston LY- they beat Cougars 20-13 in ’13- this is their first visit here since 2004. Cardinals are 3-2 as road favorites this year, with wins by 34-31-7-45 points, plus the 42-36 loss at Clemson. Houston started season by upsetting Oklahoma, but later lost at Navy, SMU and is 0-5 vs spread in its last five games. Cougars passed for 320+ yards in five of first six games, but have been under 260 in last four. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AAC home underdogs are 3-4.
Troy is 8-1, with only loss 30-24 at Clemson; they covered only one of last four games, are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 46-10-21-4 points- they had tough 28-24 win over Appalachian State five days ago, while ASU cruised in its game Saturday. Arkansas State won its last three games with Troy, beating Trojans 41-34 in each of last two meetings; teams split last four meetings played here. ASU won/covered its last five games after an 0-4 start, with only road win in that stretch 31-16 (-4.5) at Georgia State. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in league play this year.
Armadillosports.com
Louisville at Houston
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Early in the season many thought this late season non-conference matchup between Houston and Louisville would have huge national implications.
Louisville fell short against Clemson to sit outside of the ACC’s championship picture and Houston’s season has unraveled after grabbing headlines in the first month of the season.
Both teams still have a lot at stake in this intriguing Thursday night ESPN battle to kick off a big college football weekend.
Matchup: Louisville Cardinals at Houston Cougars
Venue: TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 17, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Louisville -14, Over/Under 68
Last Meeting: 2015, Houston (+13½) 34, at Louisville 31
Coming off a 13-1 campaign with an AAC championship and a Peach Bowl win over Florida State expectations were very high for a Houston squad that was almost universally projected to be the top ‘Group of 5’ squad nationally looking for a Cotton Bowl spot and they were considered an outside threat at even making the College Football Playoff. The Cougars lived up to that billing early in the season with a big win over Oklahoma in the opening weekend and then won at Cincinnati in primetime to open the conference season in what looked like one of the most important games of the AAC season.
With a 5-0 start Houston was already ranked #6 in the AP Poll and it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that the Cougars would run away with the AAC title meaning this November non-conference game with Louisville would determine whether or not Houston could potentially get the call to an even bigger stage in the bowl season.
The Cougars were stunned with a turnover-filled performance at Navy in early October with a 46-40 result and in an instant almost all of the season goals went up in smoke as Navy was now the team to beat in the AAC West. Houston would go on to lose again at SMU with a shocking 38-16 result to effectively end any hopes of winning the division title. At 8-2 the Cougars are still having a fine season but two difficult games remain with this non-conference test vs. Louisville and next week’s finale at Memphis.
Senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. opened the season as a potential Heisman Trophy sleeper and his great game vs. Oklahoma made that look like a serious possibility. He missed the game with Lamar with a shoulder injury and that injury was aggravated in last week’s win over Tulane for Houston’s homecoming. Ward has been cleared to play this week but his back-up Kyle Postma was also injured last week and has been ruled out for the season as freshman D’Eriq King will be next in line if Ward has any setbacks.
The other big storyline for Houston is head coach Tom Herman, who early in the season was universally acclaimed as the top major conference head coaching candidate with last season’s success in his first season in Houston and the great start to this season. Herman certainly feels like a long shot to be back with the Cougars next season and rumors of taking over at Texas this off-season seem to have some traction. That has possibly been a distraction for the team in what has been a disappointing run in the middle of the season with the Cougars riding a 0-5 ATS run in the last five games.
Houston is 5-0 S/U at home this season not counting the opener vs. Oklahoma that was played in Houston but at NRG Stadium. The Cougars went 8-0 S/U at home last season but that run will be put to a major test Thursday night. Last season Houston faced Louisville in the second week of the season and got the upset posting 462 yards with great balance and taking advantage of four Louisville turnovers while also getting a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the third quarter. That game also came off a very tough opening loss for the Cardinals who played tight with then #6 ranked Auburn with Louisville also looking at a huge ACC opener with Clemson coming up the following Thursday night as the scheduling situation may have helped spark the upset in what clearly was a huge game for Houston.
This season Louisville opened ranked #19 in the preseason AP poll but was considered to be a clear step behind Florida State and Clemson in the ACC Atlantic picture. The Cardinals scored 132 point in the first two games of the season vs. marginal competition and then made a loud statement in the ACC opener crushing then #2 ranked Florida State 63-20. That win propelled the Cardinals to #3 in the AP Poll and Lamar Jackson jumped onto the Heisman Trophy shortlist.
Louisville used three different quarterbacks last season and through some ups-and-downs Jackson emerged as the best option, providing a great threat on the ground to offset inconsistent results in the air. After starting last season 0-3 Louisville wound up 8-5 closing the season with a Music City Bowl win over Texas A&M. Few saw the huge 2016 season from Jackson coming as he was once a 100/1 candidate and now 1/50 is a common price in what is likely to be one of the least surprising Heisman votes in several years. Jackson has rushed for over 1,300 yards with 19 touchdowns while throwing for 27 more though he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and has had some inconsistent stretches.
Louisville’s schedule has been very weak overall and as such the 9-1 Cardinals find themselves on the outside looking in for the current College Football Playoff rankings that were released Tuesday night. Many projected Louisville would move into the top four after all the upsets last week but Louisville is sitting at #5 and the Clemson team that handed the Cardinals their only loss is ahead of them. The Clemson/Louisville game was one of the best games of the season that could have gone either way but Clemson ultimately won that game and they will get to play in the ACC Championship unless they lose to Wake Forest this week.
Louisville can assume Alabama will stay in the top four and the Big Ten will sort itself out with one candidate emerging as moving into the top four is still a realistic possibility even though two teams making the field from the same division will be a new precedent in the short history of the playoff. The Cardinals would be at risk to potentially be passed in the final rankings if a clear Big XII or Pac-12 champion emerges and the Big Ten has some scenarios where two teams would be considered as well. This game with Houston will be the last opportunity for Louisville to make its case to the committee as next week’s game with Kentucky won’t carry as much weight and Louisville will most likely be idle on championship weekend while other candidates will have an opportunity to make a case.
For both Houston and Louisville this game carries a great deal of importance and this is certainly one of the more intriguing Thursday night college football games of the season. While Houston has much less at stake than they hoped, Herman and the Cougars have proven themselves in big games the past two seasons and Houston has an elite run defense that has allowed just 93 yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry to counter the impressive rushing attack for the Cardinals. As dominant has Louisville’s season numbers are they have had several close calls this season with narrow escapes vs. Duke and Virginia in ACC play and they even trailed last week in the 4th quarter despite pulling away for a 44-12 final vs. Wake Forest.
Historical Trends:
Louisville is 7-5 S/U but 5-7 ATS in this series going back to 1984, failing to cover in both recent meetings with a 20-13 home win in 2013 and a 34-31 home loss early last season.
Louisville is just 15-29-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite going back to 2007 including going 4-8-1 ATS on the road, though 2-1-1 in four instances this season.
Houston is 14-1 ATS as an underdog going back to November of 2012 posting eight S/U upsets in that span including going 5-0 S/U and ATS as an underdog since winning the Armed Forces Bowl after the 2014 season.
This line is poised to be the highest underdog spread for Houston since the 2013 meeting at Louisville and the biggest home underdog spread since hosting Louisville in 2004.
Houston has won S/U in 14 consecutive home games though they are just 5-9 ATS in that run though often playing as a heavy favorite.
Louisville is on a 25-15-2 ATS run in road games though going just 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine instances and covering in just one of the past four road games this season.
Cards, Cougars hook up
By Sportsbook.ag
Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Louisville (-14); Total set at 69.5
Thanks to one of the wildest college football Saturday's we've seen in years where #2, #3, and #4 in the rankings all lost outright, the one-loss Louisville Cardinals are definitely back in the mix to make the playoffs. Louisville started off extremely slow last week as they trailed Wake Forest by a 12-3 score at half (Louisville was -34.5), but got their act together in the second half and ended up winning 44-12.
That final score made the game look like more of a blowout than it really was, but with all the upsets around the nation on Saturday, Louisville was happy to get the win and survive.
Louisville has a much tougher test ahead of them on Thursday night as they go to Houston to play the 8-2 SU Cougars. Houston has not lost at home all year long (6-0 SU) and upset this same Cardinals team as 13.5-point underdogs on Louisville's home field a year ago.
QB Lamar Jackson was sharing time at QB during that game, but his stat line of 1 TD and 2 INT passing, and 12 rushes for 16 yards likely saw him take fewer snaps then he would have liked. This year it's obviously a different story with Jackson as he should end up winning the Heisman Trophy, and the Cardinals are going to need a Heisman-type performance out of him this week if they want to win and survive again.
Both of these teams have high-powered offenses that can score in a hurry when they are on, and with Houston QB Greg Ward Jr likely to play through a sore shoulder here, we could very well have a shootout on our hands.
Louisville's offense started to hit their stride in the second half last week and hopefully for Cardinals fans that carries over to Thursday. Louisville started the year on a tear offensively putting up 70, 62, 63, and 59 points in their first four games, but since then they've only topped the 50-point mark twice.
Chances are they won't need to score that many to survive this showdown, but 40+ is definitely a reasonable number that Louisville has to be shooting for. They really feel like turnovers at critical points in the game last year (2 Ints and 2 fumbles lost) cost them the W and they aren't about to make the same mistake again this season.
Houston has a decent offense as well as they had a stretch of five straight games of 40 or more points earlier this season but have cooled off a bit since then. With the decreased point production by the offense, the losing ATS results have followed as the Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games, and have gone 'under' the total in three straight.
Obviously part of that is the fact that QB Greg Ward Jr has been battling injuries, but healthy or not they are going to need him to get back to scoring around 40 points this week to give themselves a shot.
Therefore, rather than looking at the side in this game, it's the total that caught my eye as it seems a few points too low. Last year's meeting finished with 65 points and that was in spite of five combined turnovers between the two teams. Both offenses were moving up and down the field on one another (25 first downs apiece) and it's not hard to argue that both QB's are much better then they were a year ago.
Louisville is on a 8-1 O/U run away from home and are 9-3 O/U when coming off a win. That road mark gets even better when facing a winning team at home as the Cardinals are 4-0 O/U in their last four tries in that scenario, and they've got a 9-4 O/U mark in their last 13 Thursday games. Houston doesn't seem to mind the short week either as they are 9-3 O/U on Thursdays, and are 35-17-1 O/U after allowing less than 20 points last time out.
This is one of those “statement game” opportunities for Louisville to make their case as a playoff team and if they are going to make a statement like that it's going to be because of Lamar Jackson's stellar play. Houston has to figure that they won't be able to stop Jackson and the Cardinals offense, simply do their best to contain them, and hope their own offensive unit puts up big numbers as well. Either way we should see a back-and-forth contest here with plenty of points.
Houston hosts Louisville Thursday night
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Louisville Cardinals vs. Houston Cougars
Line: Louisville -14, Total: 68
As the No. 6 team in the country last weekend, Louisville probably didn’t expect to trail 12-0 in the second quarter and/or 12-10 at the end of the third quarter against Wake Forest on Saturday. But just as they did in close games against lesser ACC foes Duke and Virginia earlier this season, the Cardinals eventually put away the Demon Deacons. This time the result was much more emphatic, as Louisville dominated the fourth quarter 34-0 to win by a final score of 44-12 (WF +34). Louisville is now 9-1 (5-4 ATS) and, after the losses of Clemson, Michigan and Washington last weekend, stands an excellent chance of making the College Football Playoff. First, though, they’ll have to get through Houston on Thursday night in a game that’s been anticipated since before the season started. The Cougars are 8-2 (4-5 ATS) and have won two straight after a 30-18 win over Tulane last weekend (TUL +27). It was a disappointing margin of victory for a team that beat Oklahoma in its opener but has lost two games in the American Athletic Conference by a margin of -77 points against the spread. They beat Tulane, who’s 0-6 in the AAC, despite being outgained 341 yards to 287. In the last five seasons, teams that gained 75 or fewer rushing yards in their last game (HOU) are 29-55 ATS against teams that averaged 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game. In the same time span, road favorites that have won five or six of their last seven games (LOU) are 110-58 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13. Houston QB Greg Ward Jr. suffered an injury to his shoulder in the first half against Tulane but will likely play against Louisville.
It’s a one-man race for the Heisman Trophy at the moment, with that man being Louisville QB Lamar Jackson (58.6 CMP%, 2,898 yards, 27 TDs, 6 INTs; 184 carries, 1,334 yards, 19 TDs). He posted his lowest passer rating of the year against Wake at 113.4, completing 14 of 26 passes for a mere 145 yards and but a single touchdown. He tore it up on the ground, though, rushing 22 times for 153 yards. He’s rushed for 119 yards or more in seven of the Cardinals’ ten games this season and, remarkably, is sixth in the country in rushing yards among all players (first among quarterbacks). And while he’s not the most accurate passer out there, he is among the most productive: He’s 13th in the country in passing yards. He’s combined for 15 total touchdowns in his two out-of-conference games this year (against Charlotte and Marshall, admittedly lesser opponents than Houston). Despite being second on his own team in carries, RB Brandon Radcliff (107 carries, 768 yards, 6 TDs) is still sixth in the ACC in rushing yards (ahead of bigger-name backs like Elijah Hood and Wayne Gallman) and is second to only Jackson in the conference in yards per carry (7.3 and 7.2 YPC, respectively). After five straight games with fewer than 100 yards rushing, he racked up 141 on the ground against Wake Forest. Jackson spreads his targets among a deep group of receivers, including WRs James Quick (36 catches, 608 yards, 6 TDs), Jamari Staples (34 catches, 585 yards, 2 TDs) and Jaylen Smith (22 catches, 486 yards, 2 TDs), and TE Cole Hikutini (38 catches, 526 yards, 6 TDs). Hikutini is fifth in the nation in receiving yards among tight ends. The offense isn’t the only show in town—the defense is sixth in the country with 285 yards allowed per game. LB James Hearns is fifth in the ACC with eight sacks on the year.
Before the Heisman Trophy became a one-man race, one guy who saw his names at the top of early-season lists was Ward (68.5 CMP%, 2,608 yards, 16 TDs, 8 INTs; 144 carries, 429 yards, 9 TDs). Like Jackson, he leads his team in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns in addition to his throwing duties. Two weeks ago, he had a season-low passer rating of 117.5 and a season-high three interceptions in a 31-24 win over UCF (UCF +9). Last week, he threw for a season-low 189 yards and ran for a season-worst -3 yards in the win over Tulane. He “only” has the third best passer rating in the AAC (147.5), and is fourth in passing touchdowns and passing yards. He is, however, the leader with a 68.5 completion percentage. Unlike Radcliff, though, Houston’s running back, Duke Catalon (104 carries, 411 yards, 2 TDs), does not rank among his conference’s top rushers despite his quarterback proclivity for running. That’s largely because he’s missed four games this season, but he has also failed to top 100 yards rushing—or even 90—in a single game that he has played in. RB Dillon Birden (59 carries, 277 yards, 6 TDs) has fared better in terms of yards per carry as a backup. WR Linell Bonner (68 catches, 774 yards, 2 TDs) is seventh in the AAC in receiving yards, but is the only one of 19 players in the conference with over 460 receiving yards and fewer than three touchdowns. WRs Chance Allen (44 catches, 637 yards, 3 TDs) and Steven Dunbar (43 catches, 585 yards, 5 TDs) have put up solid numbers out wide, too. Statistically, the defense is in similar rarefied air as Louisville, ranking ninth in the country with 303 yards allowed per game. LBs Tyus Bowser and Steven Taylor are third in fourth in the AAC with seven and six sacks, respectively. DT Ed Oliver has been one of the most impactful freshmen in the country this season.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Louisville (-16, 68) at Houston
When the season began, Houston was a -1 point favorite on the look-ahead line in this game. However, the Cougars have underachieved this season since their opening week win versus Oklahoma. Overall, Houston is averaging 37.6 points per game, but only 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 5.6 yppl). The Cougars have been strong on defense, permitting just 21.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 26.2 ppg and 5.4 yppl).
Louisville is 9-1 SU and back in the national title playoff picture. The Cardinals are averaging 49.6 points per game on 7.8 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 27.5 ppg and 5.7 yppl). Louisville is also a strong defensive team that permits just 20.3 points per game on 4.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 26.7 ppg and 5.4 yppl).