College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 20

Game of the Day: Kansas State at West Virginia
By Covers.com

Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 58)

Kansas State tries to bounce back from a devastating loss at TCU when it visits West Virginia on Thursday night, but the oddsmakers do not see it happening as the unranked Mountaineers are favored to defeat the No. 11 Wildcats. Kansas State was in the national championship picture before dropping a 41-20 decision to the Horned Frogs on Nov. 8, but still has an outside shot to win the Big 12 title with wins in its final three games and some help. The Wildcats are tied with No. 6 Baylor - one-half game behind No. 5 TCU - with a showdown looming with the Bears in Waco, Texas, on Dec. 6 to finish the regular season.

West Virginia has dropped two straight, including a 31-30 decision to TCU on Nov. 1 before falling at Texas 33-16 on Nov. 8. While the Mountaineers are not involved in the Big 12 race, they will be tough to beat on Senior Night. "We still have things to fight for like a good bowl game,'' junior safety K.J. Dillon said in Monday's press conference. "No one is down, everyone still wants to win for the seniors this Thursday and wants to win and finish out a good season."

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 1.5-point home favorites and have been bet up a point to sit at -2.5. The total has remained at the opening number of 58.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be a chilly night in West Virginia with temperatures in the mid 20's for the game. There will also be a 20 percent chance of snow flurries to go along with an 11 mile per hour wind blowing across the field from west to east.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "This one might mean a little more to West Virginia as it checks in sporting a modest 6-4 SU record this season but who's interested in standing in front of Bill Snyder's Kansas State Wildcats in an underdog role? The Wildcats were embarrassed in a nationally-televised showdown with TCU last time out, so you can be sure the Mountaineers will get their best effort here. With that being said, West Virginia will be highly-motivated as well, coming off back-to-back losses, including a blowout at the hands of Texas. Expecting a tight game here, leaning toward taking the points." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE (7-2, 6-3 ATS, 6-3 O/U): The Wildcats have two of the top receivers in the Big 12 in Tyler Lockett (60 receptions, 14.6 yards per catch, six touchdowns) and Curry Sexton (53, 13.6, four), but might be better off trying to run. Quarterback Jake Waters (63.6 completion rate, 13 TDs, four interceptions) has rushed for 406 yards and seven TDs, second in both departments to Charles Jones (430, 11), and they'll go against a defense that yields an average of 181.5 rushing yards - eighth in the 10-team Big 12. Kansas State won its first two road games versus Iowa State and Oklahoma by a combined five points.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (6-4, 6-4 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Quarterback Clint Trickett is putting together a solid season with a 68.3 completion rate and 18 touchdowns against eight interceptions. His favorite target is wide receiver Kevin White, who has 91 catches (second in the nation) for 1,207 yards (third) and eight TDs. The Mountaineers can also get it done on the ground with Wendell Smallwood (585 yards, two TDs), Rushel Shell (560, six) and Dreamius Smith (411, five).

TRENDS:

* Kansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a bye week.
* West Virginia is 0-7 in its last seven games following a bye week.
* Over is 5-0 in Kansas State's last five road games versus a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in West Virginia's last six games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: The consensus is fairly split with just 52 percent of wagers backing West Virginia at -2.5.

Thursday's Showdowns
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The Thursday night college football schedule ramps up this week with two major conference battles of great intrigue as the Big XII features Kansas State at West Virginia and the ACC features the matchup of nearby rivals North Carolina and Duke. Here is a quick look at both games to start off the new weekend in college football.

Kansas State Wildcats at West Virginia Mountaineers

Venue: Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, West Virginia
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – FOX 1
Line: West Virginia -2
Last Meeting: 2013, at Kansas State (-13) 35-12

At 7-2, including 5-1 in Big XII play, Kansas State is still ranked #12 in the nation, but two of the three remaining games are difficult road games with this week’s test in Morgantown and a finale in Waco. Baylor, along with the TCU team that beat Kansas State two weeks ago, appear to be in a better position for the Big XII title and both have eyes on sneaking into the national playoff should there be a few upsets around the country in the remaining weeks of the schedule.

Kansas State has played three big games this season, losing in a tight Thursday night game in September at home against Auburn, squeaking by Oklahoma on the road in a game they were soundly out-gained in, and then losing by 21 at TCU in a key battle on top of the Big XII Conference. With Auburn and Oklahoma slipping in stature in recent weeks, it is possible that the Wildcats are an overrated team, but Coach Bill Snyder has an impressive track record and this is never a team anyone is overly interested in laying points against.

West Virginia opened the season with head coach Dana Holgorsen facing a critical season. After a somewhat messy takeover of the program in 2011, Holgorsen delivered a great debut season with 10 wins, including a blowout victory in the Orange Bowl. The move to the Big XII has been challenging with the Mountaineers going 6-12 in the conference play the past two seasons and missing the postseason last year. While it may not be a banner year for the program, the call has been answered with much better results this season through a very difficult schedule.

West Virginia is just 6-4 this season, but they have faced three of the top six teams in this week’s AP poll, giving Baylor its only loss and playing very competitively with both Alabama and TCU. West Virginia also lost to Oklahoma and Texas as the team has had nearly two weeks to recover from a loss in Austin that bumped the Mountaineers out of the rankings. This is the home finale for a team that will be back in the bowl picture and a program that has proven it can compete in the Big XII.

The statistics are fairly close for these teams on a per play basis though West Virginia is more productive for per game average, posting over 500 yards of offense per game. West Virginia is throwing 40 times per game for one of the more prolific passing offenses in the country. It has not come without turnovers as the Mountaineers have averaged over two turnovers per game, sitting -13 for one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. The focus of this game will be who can control the tempo with West Virginia running over 85 plays per game in contrast with Kansas State averaging fewer than 70 plays per game.

Kansas State has featured a strong run defense for the most part this season and the ground game will likely tell the story for the 'Cats having success Thursday night. Kansas State has won and covered convincingly in both meetings the past two seasons and the Wildcats are on an 18-5 ATS run as a road underdog going back to 2007. West Virginia is 17-28-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2006, but this should be a great home crowd and atmosphere under the lights for the final home game in Morgantown.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils

Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham, North Carolina
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Duke -6
Last Meeting: 2013, Duke (+5) 27-25 at North Carolina

Until last week’s one-point home loss to Virginia Tech, the Blue Devils were even starting to generate some conversation about being a national playoff team. At 8-2, those discussions are over, but Duke can win the ACC Coastal title and advance to the ACC championship game for a second straight season if they win out. Georgia Tech currently leads the division, through with its conference season at 6-2, but Duke beat the Yellow Jackets on the road in October. If Duke wins Thursday night, they should be in great shape for the division title as the finale is at home against Wake Forest, who is winless in ACC play.

Despite the success there are many red flags on Duke’s profile. The yardage statistics are nearly even on both sides of the ball and Duke has been out-gained by over 100 yards in four of six ACC contests while getting out-rushed in all but one conference game. Duke faced an embarrassingly weak non-conference schedule and three wins came by seven or fewer points with some fortunate plays going its way.

The statistics are very poor for North Carolina, but the Tar Heels have played one of the ACC’s toughest schedules. Projected by many as the favorite in the division, the Tar Heels are just 5-5 overall and 3-3 in league play with the wins all coming in the last four games after a 2-4 start to the season. North Carolina has a favorable matchup with NC State at home to close the season next week, as the postseason looks much more promising than it did a few weeks ago but this has been a disappointing team.

North Carolina has allowed 512 yards per game this season on 6.5 yards per play and the numbers have been equally bad against the run or the pass. On offense, North Carolinas has been one-dimensional with the running game struggling most of the season and the Tar Heels have been out-gained in eight of the last nine games including all six ACC games. The four FBS wins for North Carolina have come by a grand combined total of 15 points with one of those wins being a late comeback last week with a touchdown in the final minute. This was a very even game last season with Duke winning 27-25 and the Blue Devils won 33-30 two years ago in the last home meeting. Those wins ended a long series win streak for North Carolina between these schools that sit about eight miles apart.

Duke is 19-13 ATS in this series since 1982, but North Carolina has won S/U in 26 of the last 34 meetings. North Carolina is just 5-9-1 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 and in five road games this season, North Carolina has allowed 244 points, surrendering at least 47 points in four of the five games. Duke is on a 12-3 ATS run as a home favorite since 2012 and the Blue Devils are 7-3 ATS overall this season though many of the covers have come by slim margins.

NCAAF Week 13

Kansas State whacked West Virginia 35-12/55-14 the last two years, as Wildcats outgained WVU by 168.5 yards/game. K-State beat Oklahoma, Iowa State on road by combined total of 5 points, lost 41-20 at TCU in last game. Snyder is now 13-2 in his last 15 games as a road dog. WVU lost last two games, allowing 31-33 points; they're 1-3 as favorite this year, 2-2 SU at home vs D-I teams, losing to Oklahoma/TCU, beating Kansas/Baylor. Better than average Thursday game.

Duke upset North Carolina 27-25/33-30 last two years, after losing 14 of previous 15 series games; last time Blue Devils were series favorite was 2002. Tar Heels won seven of last eight visits to Durham, with dogs 4-2 vs spread in their last six. Duke had won four games in row before 17-16 home loss to Va Tech last game; Blue Devils were held to 10-16 points in their two losses. Carolina won three of last four games after 2-4 start, despite allowing 38 ppg in those games.

Arkansas State lost first two road games at Miami/Tennessee, couple of cash-grab games; they scored 40+ points in last three road games, taking two of them. ASU (-7) beat Texas State 38-21 LY, running ball for 328 yards. Texas State covered last four games but lost last two by combined total of seven points; Bobcats ran ball for 200+ points in last four wins, less than 200 in last four losses. TSU covered its last five games as a dog.

Armadillosports.com

Kansas State vs. West Virginia Betting Preview and Pick
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com

Kansas State has had time to licks it wounds after a crushing loss at TCU. The team looks to rebound in a tough Thursday night (7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1) contest at West Virginia.

Kansas State is ranked No. 12 in the updated AP poll, while West Virginia is outside the top-25, but the Mountaineers are the small favorite after a spread move in their direction.

The Line: West Virginia -2, Total: 58

Line movement: The Wynn opened Kansas State as 1.5-point road favorites on Sunday, but the pendulum swung and now it’s West Virginia laying points. The Wynn's John Avello told The Linemakers' Matty Simo of his decision to open K-State the favorite, “The home field really hasn’t been that strong (for West Virginia) the last couple years. I’ve probably given a little bit of an edge in coaching to (Bill) Snyder here. The (bettors) just thought that West Virginia maybe should be the favorite at home."

For updated spreads and totals from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page .

Trends that matter: Kansas State has won and covered against West Virginia two seasons in a row, last year as a 13.5-point home favorite (35-12) and in 2012 as a 3-point road underdog (55-14). Both games stayed UNDER the totals of 52.5 and 73, respectively.

Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

The OVER is 5-1 in Kansas State’s last six road games (3-0 this year).

The UNDER is 6-0 in West Virginia’s last six games.

Kansas State still motivated: The Wildcats (7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS) saw their national title hopes end with a 41-20 loss at TCU as 6.5-point dogs on Nov. 8. That ended a five-game winning streak straight-up and six-straight covers against the spread.

K-State still has a lot to play for, including at least a piece of the Big 12 title if it can win its last three games. Quarterback Jake Waters (146.8 rating) is having a very solid year, but the running game needs more balance on Thursday after amassing just 34 yards at TCU. West Virginia’s run defense can be exploited at 181.5 YPG (ranked 86th).

The Wildcats have played just three road games (2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS) this year, all of them going OVER. This is another big test with a date at Baylor looming in early December.

West Virginia looks to right ship: The Mountaineers (6-4 SU and ATS) are also coming off a bye, trying to stop a two-game losing streak after defeats at home versus TCU (31-30 as 3.5-point dogs) and at Texas (33-16 as 3-point favorites). At home this season, WVU nearly beat TCU despite five turnovers (losing 31-30), and defeated Baylor (41-27 as 8-point dogs) on Oct. 18.

Senior quarterback Clint Trickett (3,173 yards) leads the nation’s 12th-ranked passing offense. His throwing numbers have gone down the last three games (216 YPG), and he’s facing another solid all-around defense in Kansas State (346.8 YPG, ranked 30th).

The Mountaineers are riding an UNDER streak at 6-0 in their last six games. The offense has scored a respectable 31.8 PPG over that span, while the defense allowed 24.8 PPG, but there were some hefty totals in there.

Weather: The forecast calls for small chance of snow and the temperature dipping down to the upper 20s during game-time.

The Linemakers lean: We anticipate money on the OVER pushing this total up before kickoff, so we'll wait out that action and make our UNDER play late, riding West Virginia's recent UNDER trends.