College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 21

Thursday's NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Central Florida Knights (-17.5, 57.5)

Central Florida looks to follow up a remarkable road victory and stay unbeaten in the American Athletic Conference when it hosts Rutgers on Thursday. The No. 20 Knights' remarkable run through the league slate continued Saturday with perhaps the game of the weekend in college football as standout quarterback Blake Bortles led his team to 10 points in the final 1:06 to steal a 39-36 victory at Temple. Late drama is nothing new to Central Florida, which has won five games by seven points or less, four during its five-game winning streak.

While the Knights may eventually eye a conference crown and an automatic BCS berth, the Scarlet Knights still have plenty to play for as well. They remain one win shy of bowl eligibility for the eighth time in nine years. Rutgers also had a three-point win against Temple before it suffered a 52-17 loss to Cincinnati on Saturday, its third setback in four games.

LINE: Central Florida opened as low as 16.5 and jumped to 17.5. The total is set at 57.5 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s with a 27 percent chance of rain early on. Winds blowing NNE at 6 mph.

ABOUT RUTGERS (5-4, 2-3 AAC): Although it has a shot at gaining that bowl eligibility, a once-promising season has taken a bad turn for the Scarlet Knights, whose 1-3 slide has coincided with an allegation by a former player of bullying by a coach and an embarrassing home loss to the Bearcats. Gary Nova's touchdown pass late in the first quarter Rutgers cut Cincinnati's lead to 10-7, but the Bearcats responded with six straight touchdowns. Nova threw two interceptions and has nine picks against five touchdowns in the last four games.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (8-1, 5-0): Many who had not heard of Bortles prior to the Temple game are now well aware of his exploits. In the comeback win over the Owls, the junior threw for a career-high 404 yards, leading Central Florida to 657 total yards, the most the program has amassed in a game since it joined the FBS ranks in 1996. Bortles ranks seventh in FBS in passer efficiency (168.6).

TRENDS:

* Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 11-5 in Scarlet Knights last 16 road games.

Rice Owls at Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (+19, 63.5)

Rice looks to keep its chances at the Conference USA West Division title alive Thursday night as it visits Alabama-Birmingham. The Owls fell to division co-leader North Texas two weeks ago but bounced back in its previous game, rolling past Louisiana Tech 52-14 on the strength of Charles Ross' conference record-tying five rushing touchdowns. The Blazers have dropped four straight games and have surrendered a whopping 119 points in their last two defeats.

The Owls have built much of their success on a potent running game - and after struggling to gain much real estate in the loss to the Mean Green, they atoned with a sensational performance against the Bulldogs. Ross racked up 215 of Rice's 415 rushing yards, and the Owls finished with six scores on the ground to improve to 5-1 in conference play. UAB has been feasted on all season, allowing more than 42 points per game.

LINE: UAB is installed as a 19-point dog after being as low as +20. The over/under is set at 63 1/2.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow northwest across the width of the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT RICE (7-3, 5-1 Conference USA): Ross has been the centerpiece of one of the best rushing attacks in the country, surpassing the 1,000-yard plateau for the season last time out while leading the conference with 11 rushing scores. Quarterback Taylor McHargue has had an up-and-down season to date, throwing for 1,751 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has also run for 359 yards, but had just one in the victory over Louisiana Tech.

ABOUT UAB (2-8, 1-5): Austin Brown and Jonathan Perry have formed a competent quarterback tandem for the Blazers, combining to throw for nearly 2,100 yards with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Perry threw for a season-best 210 yards in last week's loss to East Carolina but was picked off twice - one of which was returned by Kyle Tudor for a 50-yard touchdown. Darrin Reaves (827 yards, nine TDs) and Jordan Howard (826 yards, two TDs) pace the run attack.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with losing records.
* Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in UAB's last seven games vs. teams with winning records.

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons (-1, 61)

The UNLV Rebels look to get their season back on track as they visit Colorado for a showdown with the Air Force Falcons. The Rebels have lost three of their last four games - including back-to-back home defeats to San Jose State and Utah State - to spoil what had been a solid start to the year. The Falcons have struggled all season long but have been better of late, defeating Army at home before dropping a 45-37 shootout against host New Mexico.

The Rebels may be in for a struggle Thursday as they bring a shaky run defense into Falcon Stadium. UNLV ranks eighth in the 12-team Mountain West Conference in rushing yards allowed per game (234.5) while surrendering 22 touchdowns on the ground and 5 1/2 yards per carry. If Air Force has done one thing well this season, it's running the ball - the Falcons are second in the conference and 11th in the FBS in rushing yards per game at 277.

LINE: Air Force is listed as a one-point fave, down slightly from a 1 1/2-point open. The over/under has held at 61.

WEATHER: Snow is in the forecast at Falcon Stadium with temperatures in the mid-teens and wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.

ABOUT UNLV (5-3, 3-3 Mountain West): Thursday's X-factor could be Rebels senior quarterback Caleb Herring, who will look to solve a Falcons pass defense that ranks fourth in the conference in yards against per game. Herring has thrown for more than 250 yards in three straight games, with seven touchdowns and just three interceptions over that span. His performance could ultimately determine whether feature back Tim Cornett (970 yards, 11 TDs) has room to run.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (2-8, 0-6): Solving the Falcons' offense isn't difficult - Air Force has run the ball an unfathomable 538 times so far in 2013, while attempting just 141 passes. But stopping the Falcons' ground attack is a much harder task; they're averaging better than five yards per carry with 26 rushing touchdowns spread out among nine different players. Eighteen different Falcons have at least one carry, led by Anthony LaCoste with 111 for 781 yards and six scores.

TRENDS

* Rebels are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss
* Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Thursday's Notebook
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The Thursday Night college football schedule features three nationally televised games this week to start off the first of the final three weeks of the college football regular season. While none of the top conferences are involved in the Thursday games this week, there is meaning in the conference races and bowl projections for all three games. Here is a brief look at the matchups for Thursday college football this week.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Central Florida Knights (-17½)

Most have assumed that after the huge win over Louisville, it is a foregone conclusion that Central Florida will win the AAC and the automatic BCS bowl spot that goes with it. The Knights are certainly in the driver's seat at 5-0 in league play, but they will get the best shot from each of their final three opponents. Four of the five wins in conference play for Central Florida have come by seven or fewer points as this has not been a dominant team and last week the Knights barely survived against Temple, a team that is improving but still has just one win on the season. The early season win over Penn State no longer looks all that impressive and while the offensive numbers are very good for this team, there has been some inconsistency. Central Florida has improved defensively compared with last season statistically, but the numbers are not dominant, allowing 5.5 yards per play and 370 yards per game.

After a promising 4-1 start to the season, Rutgers has lost three of the last four games with only a narrow win over 1-9 Temple. Rutgers has played the last three games at home, yet has lost badly in two of those games, falling by 35 points each against Houston and Cincinnati. Rutgers has featured an excellent run defense that is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, but opponents are passing for 328 yards per game against the Scarlet Knights on over 64 percent completions.

Rutgers will still play Connecticut and South Florida after this game, so heading to a third straight postseason spot seems likely regardless of Thursday's result. Rutgers has had 21 turnovers this season led by erratic senior quarterback Gary Nova, who has 10 interceptions in five conference games, but this is a team that scored 40 points per game through the first five games of the season as the offense is still capable of producing.

The spread trends favor Rutgers in the road underdog role as the Scarlet Knights are 17-10-1 ATS on the road since 2008 and an impressive 24-10-1 ATS as an underdog since 2006. Since 2009, Central Florida is 16-9-1 ATS as a home favorite, but the Knights are just 7-7 ATS the last 14 games when favored by 14 or more points.

Rice Owls (-18) at Alabama-Birmingham Blazers

Rice is a contender Conference USA West race, but an early November loss at North Texas is damaging to those hopes as the Mean Green currently holds the edge with both teams at 5-1 in conference play. Rice enters this final road game on a short week after a dominant homecoming win over Louisiana Tech, but the opposition is not threatening going against the 2-8 UAB Blazers. Rice already has seven wins overall, so another bowl trip is likely after the team won the Armed Forces Bowl against Air Force last season. Two of the three losses for Rice came in road games this season and the Owls are a bit suspect statistically, sitting with a 7-3 record but barely positive in net yards per play. Rice has allowed 175 rushing yards per game and while the defense has improved dramatically overall compared with last season's numbers, Rice has been out-gained in three wins this season.

UAB is in the opposite division of Rice and these teams last played in 2010 with Rice winning narrowly at home. It has been a rough season for the Blazers in the second season under Coach Garrick McGee as it seems unlikely the team will improve on last year's 3-9 record, sitting at 2-8 with two games to play currently. The schedule has been a great challenge with this being just the fourth home game of the season. UAB lost badly at home to Florida Atlantic, but picked up a win over FCS Northwestern State and nearly beat Middle Tennessee State in the other home games.

UAB is allowing over 503 yards per game on average this season on 7.4 yards per play, as the defense has really struggled, hiding a competent offense. UAB actually averages more yards per play on offense than Rice at 5.9 and the Blazers are still gaining almost 400 yards per game with solid run and pass balance. Quarterback play has been an issue with only 53 percent of passes completed, but UAB has scored at least 21 points in seven of 10 games this season. The Blazers have been outscored, 195-80 on the current four-game losing streak.

Rice is just 7-12-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to late 1997, though the Owls are 2-0 ATS in that role this season. This spread is currently sitting as the highest road favorite spread for Rice as far back as we have data (1980). Rice has covered in six of the last eight games as a double-digit favorite, including three of four instances this season. Historically, UAB is 20-9-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1999, including covering in 10 of the last 14 instances and in the lone opportunity this season. UAB has failed in six straight games against the number as an underdog of 10 or more points.

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons (-1)

The Rebels have not been to a bowl game since 2000, but at 5-5 so far this season, they could get an opportunity with just one more win. Next week's home date against San Diego State will be a tough game, so this may be the best opportunity to get it done. UNLV has lost two games in a row in tough home games against good teams and the Rebels have been out-gained by 40 yards per game and out-scored by almost five points per game despite the even record this season. Before winning at New Mexico in September, UNLV had lost 23 consecutive road games S/U and going back to 2004, UNLV is 6-52 S/U and 15-40-3 ATS on the road. Those days appear to be behind the program with two road wins this season and one more win will seal the best season for the program since 2003 and a big jump in wins after three straight two-win seasons under Coach Bobby Hauck. The overall statistics are marginal for the Rebels, but lopsided losses to Arizona and Fresno State do skew the picture.

This is the final home game for Air Force, but it has been a miserable season with only a win over Army as a highlight. This was a three-point game last season with UNLV winning in Las Vegas early in the season but the Falcons have had an overwhelming series edge in recent years, winning nine of the last 11 meetings S/U and going 7-4 ATS in the series since 2002. UNLV last won Colorado Springs in 2001 and Air Force has generally been heavy favorite in this series.

Air Force has allowed at least 27 points in every FBS game this season as the defense has allowed 478 yards per game on 6.3 yards per play. The defensive edge for UNLV is not substantial, however, as the Rebels are allowing 5.5 yards per rush and 236 yards per game on the ground and Air Force still brings a dangerous running game to the table with 276 rushing yards per game on average. There is snow and cold weather currently projected for Thursday night and that could be a big advantage for the home team given the style of offense run by the Falcons and the warm climate Rebels team.

The road struggles for UNLV are well documented and the numbers are also poor in games where UNLV is expected to have a chance to win. When playing as a favorite, or as an underdog of less than 10 points, UNLV is just 28-47 ATS since 2002. Air Force has certainly had recent struggles at home going just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 home contests, though they are 12-8 S/U in those games.

NCAAF Week 13

Central Florida needed miraculous finish to win 39-36 at Temple, scoring 10 points in last 2:00 of game, week after they nipped Houston 19-14 at home; UCF lost 45-24 (+2.5) to Rutgers in bowl game four years ago, in teams' only meeting. UCF is 5-0 on road, with 38-0 win at FIU only one of the five by more than seven points. In fact, six of UCF's last seven games were won by 7 or less points. UCF is 3-3 as a favorite. Rutgers has internal troubles with player accusing an assistant coach of bullying; they got waxed 52-17 by Cincinnati last week, are 1-2 on road, with two of the three games going to OT. Rutgers is 2-0 as an underdog in 2013.

Home team won all four Rice-UAB games; Owls lost 44-24/45-26 in its two visits here. Rice won six of last seven games, covered last five; they are 3-2 SU away from home, with only one win by more than six points, 4-1 as a favorite. Blazers are 1-6 vs spread in last seven games, giving up 119 points in last two. UAB already played all seven of its road games; they're 0-2 at home vs I-A teams, losing by 14-3 points. UAB can't stop the run; five of its last six oppoents ran ball for 240+ yards. Rice's last three wins are by 26-38-38 points- they ran for 400+ yards in two of those three wins. Seven of last nine Blazer games went over the total.

UNLV can clinch bowl bid with win here, but they've lost last five visits to Air Force and haven't come closer than 17 points in any of the five; Rebels upset Falcons 38-35 (+10.5) at home LY, its first win vs Falcons in last six tries and second in last 11. UNLV split four road games, with wins at New Mexico/Nevada, but they lost last two game at home when they had chance to clinch bowl bid. Flyboys are 1-8 vs D-I teams, with only win over Army three weeks ago; favorites covered seven of their last nine games. Air Force is 1-4 at home, with losses by 32-33-7-35. Last four UNLV games stayed under the total.

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