College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, November 3rd, 2016.
BUFFALO (2 - 6) at OHIO U (6 - 3) - 11/3/2016, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO U is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OHIO U is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST (3 - 4) at GEORGIA ST (2 - 6) - 11/3/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA (6 - 2) at IOWA ST (1 - 7) - 11/3/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 2-0 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UCLA (3 - 5) at COLORADO (6 - 2) - 11/3/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
COLORADO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
COLORADO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 2-0 against the spread versus UCLA over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 2-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO vs. OHIO
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games
Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Ohio is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Buffalo
OKLAHOMA vs. IOWA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oklahoma's last 9 games on the road
Oklahoma is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Iowa State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma
Iowa State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
ARKANSAS STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Arkansas State's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Georgia State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Georgia State's last 8 games at home
UCLA vs. COLORADO
UCLA is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
UCLA is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing UCLA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games at home
Buffalo at Ohio
Buffalo: 27-44 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
Ohio: 7-0 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog
Arkansas State at Georgia State
Arkansas St: 3-12 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more
Georgia St: 11-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Oklahoma at Iowa State
Oklahoma: 9-2 ATS after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game
Iowa St: 11-2 UNDER in home games after 4 or more consecutive straight up losses
UCLA at Colorado
UCLA: 0-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game
Colorado: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
StatFox Super Situations
BUFFALO at OHIO U
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record 46-18 over the last 10 seasons.**(71.9% | 26.2 units)
ARKANSAS ST atGEORGIA ST
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) off a huge blowout win by 35 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival 25-8 since 1997. (75.8% | 0.0 units ) 0-2 this year. (0.0% | 0.0 units)
OKLAHOMA at IOWA ST
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (OKLAHOMA) off a home win against a conference rival, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season 111-20 over the last 5 seasons. (84.7% | 0.0 units ) 14-4 this year. (77.8% | 0.0 units)
UCLA at COLORADO
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 25 to 28 after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record 46-18 over the last 10 seasons. (71.9% | 26.2 units)
College Football Thursday Night Preview
By Sportsbook.ag
UCLA (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) vs. Colorado (6-2 SU, 8-0 ATS)
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Colorado (-12.5)
It's no secret now that the Colorado Buffaloes have been the best bet in college football for the better part of a calendar year now. Colorado finished the 2015-16 campaign on a 4-2 ATS run and have carried that over to this season as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in 2016.
They are in prime position to compete for a Pac-12 Championship for the first time since they've moved to that conference, and could even end up sneaking into the College Football Playoff picture if everything falls right for them. Three of their final four games this year are at home which is a huge plus and that stretch begins as a double digit home favorite vs. UCLA this week.
The Bruins are in the midst of another disappointing campaign as they are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their eight contests this year. They've lost QB Josh Rosen for the year with nerve damage in his shoulder and backup QB Mike Fafaul has taken over and shown promise at times.
Fafaul threw 70 passes and five TD's in a 52-45 loss to Utah last time out as the Bruins have basically become a one-dimensional team now with no running game to speak of. That's a huge cause for concern against a Colorado team that is one of the best in the conference and can gear up to stop the aerial attack.
If that's the case Colorado doesn't even need to be at their best to keep UCLA's offense in check because they will almost assuredly get help from the Bruins carelessness with the football.
For as promising as Fafaul as looked at times during games, his biggest problem is interceptions. He's thrown at least two interceptions in each game he's seen significant playing time, and had four INT's to go along with those five TD passes last time out. Turnovers are a killer for any team, but when UCLA's QB has turned it over eight times in two and a half games, it's not surprising to see the Bruins have a losing record this year.
Turning the ball over repeatedly is not something anyone wants to do against this Colorado defense as they've shut down nearly everyone they've gone up against. Yes, the Buffs did give up 45 points in a road loss at #2 Michigan, and followed that up a week later by allowing 38 points at Oregon, but other than those two games the Buffaloes have allowed 7, 7, 6, 21, 16, and 5 points.
With that kind of production on defense, it's no wonder that they are the best CFB team against the spread this year. They should have a field day against Fafaul and UCLA's offense this week as they should grab multiple turnovers to set their offense up in prime scoring spots.
So while all streaks must come to an end and Colorado will eventually not cover a point spread, I don't believe that will happen this week. In all facets of the game the Buffaloes are the much better team here and with UCLA's defense just getting torched for 52 points last time out, this game has blowout written all over it.
Colorado has covered the last three games with UCLA and although the Buffaloes were listed as double digit underdogs in all three of those games, the team that cashes the betting ticket this year won't change. Colorado almost beat UCLA outright the last two years as +22.5 and +14 dogs respectively, and now that the roles are reversed in terms of the point spread, I expect Colorado to roll over this banged up and turnover prone UCLA program.
Best Bet: Take Colorado -12.5
Oklahoma at Iowa State
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Oklahoma is alone at 5-0 in first place in the Big XII standings, looking for another great late season run to wipe out a rough September. Iowa State may be 0-5 in conference play, but this has been a competitive group that was close to a few major upsets and this Thursday night Big XII clash should provide an entertaining start to the football weekend.
Match-up: Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 3, 7:30 PM ET
Line: Oklahoma -21, Over/Under 70
Last Meeting: 2015, at Oklahoma (-24) 52, Iowa State 16
The Sooners made the College Football Playoff last season despite an early season loss and this year’s team seems to be on a mission to try to do the same even against steep odds with two September defeats. The candidacy for the Sooners is fragile with the losses to Houston and Ohio State no longer looking as impressive as they did when both squads were undefeated top 10 teams. Oklahoma is still the favorite to win the Big XII with four games to go and the Sooners can still wind up with an attractive bowl pairing at the end of the year while being ready to move up should chaos occur on championship weekend.
The 5-0 start in Big XII play has featured three wins by a touchdown or less and Oklahoma has allowed 33 points per game in conference play as one can’t assume that the Sooners will win out. The final three games are against Baylor, at West Virginia, and rival Oklahoma State and this could be a dangerous game that gets a bit overlooked.
Iowa State made three bowl appearances in seven seasons under Paul Rhodes, but made a move after last season hiring Matt Campbell who led Toledo to four successful seasons. At 1-7 and winless in the Big XII it has been a tough transition season and barring a major upset a third 2-10 campaign in the last decade looks like the most likely scenario. This is a team that can still get a season-making win as they played very close in narrow losses against Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State.
Iowa State has had a handful of significant upsets in recent years including beating Iowa two years ago on the road and most notably stunning Oklahoma State as a four-touchdown underdog late in the 2011 season when the Cowboys were 10-0 and the #2 team in the nation. This series has generally featured blowouts for the Sooners, including a combined score of 159-40 the past three seasons. Iowa State last beat Oklahoma in 1990 in a major upset, but they haven’t even played to within closer than 10 points with the Sooners since 1998.
Despite being a bit of a disappointment this season Oklahoma still owns elite offensive numbers, gaining an eye-popping 7.8 yards per play and throwing for 344 yards per game behind Baker Mayfield. Considered a Heisman candidate to start the season, Mayfield is completing nearly 71 percent of his passes and he should surpass last season’s production numbers, though likely with more interceptions as well with five already this season. Sophomore Joe Mixon has been the star in the backfield with over 800 rushing yards and over 300 receiving yards while senior Dede Westbrook should finish as one of them most successful receivers in the nation.
Oklahoma’s defense came to play last week vs. Kansas in a 56-3 result but allowing 854 yards against Texas Tech in the prior game makes this team hard to take seriously in the national conversation. The Sooners have allowed 40 or more points in half of their eight games as opposing teams have had a lot of success against Oklahoma, mainly through the air. Last season’s Oklahoma defense exposed the team in the national semifinal vs. Clemson and on average this year’s team has allowed about 10 more points per game and nearly 70 more yards per game compared with the 2015 squad.
The Iowa State defense doesn’t rate much stronger especially with far worse numbers against the run, but the Cyclones can have hope of an upset knowing they should be able to keep pace in this matchup. The Cyclones have played two quarterbacks most of the season, but it seems like sophomore Jacob Park is taking on a bigger share of the snaps of late though junior Joel Lanning has stronger numbers across the board this season. The big issue for Iowa State has been the lack of a running game this season with the team gaining just 3.6 yards per rush and being unable to sustain long drives was certainly the downfall in blowing late leads in a few big games this season, most notably vs. Baylor when Iowa State had a 42-28 edge in the fourth quarter.
Iowa State has been out-gained on the ground in six of eight games this season and getting out-rushed was a common thread in both Oklahoma losses this season. Over the past three games, Iowa State is running the ball a bit more effectively at 4.8 yards per carry and 188 yards per game and the home and road splits paint an opportunity for the Cyclones as Oklahoma has allowed 6.8 yards per play away from home while Iowa State has much better defensive numbers in Ames.
Ultimately this is a win that would mean more to Iowa State although a loss would certainly be more damaging for Oklahoma. It may not be an ideal spot for either team as while hosting a national TV game should be a draw for the Cyclones, facing a powerful offense on a short week is a big challenge. The Cyclones also came up short in last week’s homecoming game vs. Kansas State, losing 31-26 as Iowa State had a big yardage edge though late scoring made the final score closer than the game ever was. For Oklahoma, next week’s game with Baylor could decide the Big XII title and the team clearly played one of its best games last week, albeit vs. Kansas. It will be tough to be quite as sharp this week with travel and a short week schedule for the Sooners ahead of one of the season’s biggest games.
Historical Trends: Oklahoma is 26-1-1 S/U and 16-12 ATS in this series going back to 1980, going 9-2 ATS since 1999 and winning S/U in each of the last 17 meetings. Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS at Iowa State since 1980, winning S/U in all 14 of those meetings as Iowa State hasn’t won at home in this series since 1960. Oklahoma is just 5-8 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2010 and the Sooners are 44-52 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more points in any venue since 1990, though going 7-3 ATS since 2014 in that heavy favorite role. Iowa State has covered in four straight games as a home underdog including both instances this season. Iowa State has covered in just two of the last eight instances when dogged by 20 or more points. The Cyclones have won S/U three times since 2009 as an underdog of 20 or more points as they have had a few major upsets in recent years. Matt Campbell owns a S/U record of 20-8 (15-11-2 ATS) in home games while Bob Stoops is 59-21 S/U and 44-36 ATS in road games.
Big 12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Oklahoma at Iowa State
The Sooners are the only remaining unbeaten Big 12 team in conference play after Baylor and West Virginia suffered setbacks in league play last week. Oklahoma will look to keep it cooking against a bad Iowa State team which is already eliminated from bowl contention. Thursday football hasn't been kind to OU, as they're 1-4 ATS in their past five Thursday games. However, Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 conference tilts and 5-2 ATS in their past seven road outings against a team with a losing home record. Iowa State has been competitive despite their poor overall record, going 5-1 ATS in their past six home games and 4-1 ATS in their past Big 12 battles. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four games on a Thursday. However, the favorite has covered each of the past four, Oklahoma is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings and the Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to Ames.
Pac-12 Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
UCLA at Colorado
The Bruins head to Folsom Field in Boulder looking to salvage their season, as they hit November with five losses already. The Buffaloes are coming off a bye and looking to move to 9-0 ATS on the season. UCLA is just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games overall, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. UCLA is also 1-5 ATS in their past six games on the road. Colorado has covered six straight games inside the league, 5-0 ATS in their past five home games and 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a losing overall record. Colorado is holding steady as an 11-point favorite and the total has been pushed up from 55 to 58. That's interesting with the 'under' 3-0-1 in UCLA's past four road games, 6-2-1 in their past nine conference tilts and 6-2-1 in their past nine against winning teams. The under is 4-0 in Colorado's past four, 5-0 in their past five against losing teams and 4-0 in their past four conference battles. The under is also 5-1 in Colorado's past six at home.
NCAAF Week 10
Buffalo is 0-3 as a road underdog this year, outscored 117-24 in those games- they’re 4-9 in last 13 games as a road dog. Home side won last six Buffalo-Ohio games; Bulls lost last three visits here, by 23-7-17 points. Underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Ohio won five of last six games but is 0-3 vs spread as a home favorite this year, after being 6-2 last two years. Buffalo is 2-6 but upset Akron LW; four of Bulls’ last five losses are by 24+ points. Ohio ran ball for 477 yards in its last two games. MAC home favorites are 4-13 vs spread this spread.
Arkansas State won last three games with Georgia State: 48-34/35-33 at home, 52-10 in last visit here, two years ago. ASU ran ball for 680 yards in last two meetings- they’ve won three games in row after an 0-4 start, winning by 1-10-41 points- they also had two bye weeks in there since the 0-4 start. This is Red Wolves’ first road game since 34-20 loss at Utah State Sept 16; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as a road favorite. Georgia State is 2-6 but covered its last five lined games; they’re 2-5-1 in last eight games as a home dog. Sun Belt home dogs are 4-4.
Oklahoma won its last 12 games with Iowa State, covering nine of last 11; Cyclones scored 16 or less points in all 12 games. Sooners covered four of last five visits to Ames. Oklahoma gained 684-751 yards vs ISU last two years. Iowa State is 0-4 in Big X but covered three of four games, losing by 3-7-21-5 points; Cyclones are 2-0 as home dogs this year after being 11-14-1 under the previous coach. Oklahoma scored 49.4 pts/game in winning its last five games after a 1-2 start; Sooners won 52-46/66-59 in their two true road games this year- they also lost at Houston, but that game was NRG Stadium, not the Cougars’ stadium.
Colorado is 7-0 vs spread this year, only perfect spread record in country; they won both Pac-12 home games, 47-6/40-16, are now 8-0 as a home favorite under MacIntyre. UCLA won its last five games with Colorado; Bruins were double digit favorite in all five games- they’re a double digit dog here and QB Rosen is out for year. UCLA won 40-37/42-14 in last two visits to Boulder. Despite losing to Bruins last two years, Colorado did gain 554-500 TY in those games. UCLA lost four of last five games, losing last three by 3-6-7 points- they’re 6-5 as home dogs under Mora, 1-1 this season.
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