College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, November 6

ACC Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Clemson at Wake Forest

This Thursday night battle might be shaping up as a low-scoring defensive tussle. The under has cashed in four straight games for Clemson, and it is 10-1 in the past 11 games on field turf. In addition, the under is 4-1 in their past five games following a bye, and the under is 9-3 in their past 12 appearances on Thursday Night Football. For Wake, the under is 5-0 in the past five home games, and 4-1 in their past five agaisnt a winning team. The under is also 23-8 in their past 31 ACC tilts, and 36-17 in their past 53 overall. In this series, the past four have gone under in Winston-Salem, and the under is 5-1 in the past six meetings overall. Clemson is 0-3 ATS in the past three overall, but Wake is just 1-5 ATS in its past six at home against a team with a winning road record.

Clemson vs. Wake Forest Betting Preview and Pick
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com

Clemson is red-hot in winning five games in a row, but hasn’t covered the spread in its last three. The AP No. 19 Tigers are a big road favorite on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) when they visit ACC Atlantic rival Wake Forest.

Both teams have been off since October 25 and there are major UNDER trends riding for each team, and the series in general.

The Line: Clemson -22, Total: N/A

Line movement: The Stratosphere opened the Tigers at -19 and has moved them way up to -22. A Clemson -21 (-115 juice) can still be found in Las Vegas for favorite bettors. For complete Las Vegas lines, visit our live odds page.

Trends that matter: Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last three games.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last four games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Wake Forest’s games this year.

Clemson is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams.

The UNDER is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams.

Watson expected to sit: The Tigers (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) have failed to cover their last three games in close wins over Louisville (23-17), Boston College (17-13) and Syracuse (16-6). Their one road contest was at BC as 5.5-point favorites and this is just their second road game since September 20.

Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt (115.2 rating) is slated to start to the dismay of most Clemson fans. Stoudt lost the starting job to Deshaun Watson (186.9 rating, second nationally) back in late September, but the true freshman phenom hurt his finger against Louisville and has missed the last two games. Watson will dress, but is expected to sit.

Clemson’s defense has really stepped up the last four contests at 212.8 YPG and 9.0 PPG. The unit ranks second in the country for the year in yards allowed (268.6 YPG) behind Wisconsin.

Wake Forest woeful offensively: The Demon Deacons (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) have lost their last four games, although did manage to cover two of them, including a 23-17 home loss as 13.5-point dogs to Boston College most recently.

Wake Forest’s offense ranks dead-last nationally at 213.5 YPG, with both the running and passing games struggling. The team has a true freshman quarterback of its own in John Wolford (108.7 rating), but he’s been sacked a whopping 28 times and Clemson’s defense leads the ACC at 3.75 sacks per game.

Wake Forest’s defense has been respectable (358.3 YPG, ranked 40th), but it’s hard to see the offense mustering much (if anything) this week.

Injuries that matter: Clemson’s Watson (finger) is doubtful and receiver Charone Peake (knee) and cornerback Martin Jenkins (foot) are questionable.

Weather: The forecast calls for a chance of rain and temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers lean: Wake Forest just lacks the talent present throughout the rest of the ACC, but the spread is inflated in this spot according to Vinny Magliulo, which is why he's taking the points. Richie Baccellieri has the drop off from Stoudt to Watson as 7 points. He likes the points as well with one caveat: if Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney changes his tune on giving Watson a significant amount of playing time, he'll turn around and lay the spread with Tigers.

WF looking for home upset
By Sportsbook.ag

CLEMSON TIGERS (6-2) at WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS (2-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Clemson -21, Total: 42

No. 19 Clemson tries to stay within striking distance of an ACC title-game appearance when it travels to struggling Wake Forest on Thursday night.

After losing to both Georgia and Florida State over the first three weeks of the season, the Tigers have won their past five games SU. They have been at least six-point favorites in each game during their SU win streak while going 2-3 ATS and have failed to cover the spread in each of their past three contests. Their offense struggled at home against Syracuse most recently as they won 16-6 as 17-point favorites while allowing a mere 170 yards of offense in a sloppy contest in which the schools combined for seven turnovers.

The Demon Deacons have really had a poor season, and after going 2-2 (SU and ATS) in their non-conference games, they have gone 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) in ACC play where they average a pathetic 9.2 PPG and 164 total YPG. The team put up a valiant effort in its last game on Oct. 25 as it covered the 13-point spread against Boston College at home with a 23-17 loss. In the defeat, Wake had a mere 261 yards of offense while doing basically nothing on the ground (19 yards on 33 carries).

Clemson has won five straight meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS and winning by an average of 27.2 PPG. The club has piled up 1,183 passing yards (394 per game) in the past three meetings, including 407 in last season’s 56-7 laugher as 28.5-point favorites. In that big win, the Tigers held Wake Forest to a putrid 222 yards of total offense while forcing two turnovers.

Trends show that the Tigers are 8-2 ATS after allowing 100 yards or less in their previous game over the past three seasons while being a poor 2-12 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in five straight contests since 1992.

The offense for Clemson could be thin, as QB Deshaun Watson (finger) and WR Charone Peake (knee) are both listed as doubtful. Watson will reportedly dress for the game and could be available if the score gets close or backup QB Cole Stoudt (shoulder) isn't healthy enough to play. The Demon Deacons will also miss some offense as WR Matt James (hand) continues to be out.

Clemson started out the year playing like a potent offense, but has recently slowed down with 23 or fewer points in each of the past three games. For the season, the Tigers are averaging 291.3 YPG through the air (22nd in FBS) and 140.8 YPG on the ground with 32.3 PPG. With QB Deshaun Watson (1,176 pass yards, 12 TD, 2 INT) only available in an emergency situation, QB Cole Stoudt (1,143 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) will get the start. He has already started five games this season with unspectacular results. In those contests he has averaged just 6.3 YPA while attempting at least 29 passes in each of his starts.

Freshman HB Wayne Gallman (299 rush yards, 1 TD) has been the lead back for this program and was really leaned on against Syracuse when he went for 101 yards on 28 attempts (3.6 YPC) while also having at least one catch in every game thus far. There are two receivers that need to be watched carefully by the opposing defense as WRs Mike Williams (743 rec yards, 4 TD) and Artavis Scott (502 rec yards, 3 TD) bring different styles of play while being productive.

The defense has actually been a big strength for the Tigers as they are allowing a very low 18.3 PPG (10th in FBS) and the second-fewest total yards in the nation (268.8 YPG). Much of the strong play stems from senior DL Vic Beasley (20 tackles, 8 sacks) while LB Stephone Anthony (49 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) leads the team in tackles.

While Clemson’s offense has been average, the Demon Deacons offense has been horrendous as they rank 108th in the nation in passing (179.0 YPG) and 128th in rushing (34.5 YPG) while scoring a miniscule 14.8 PPG (126th in FBS). QB John Wolford (1,377 pass yards, 7 TD, 13 INT) has had his issues as a freshman and has thrown at least one pick in every game on the season while attempting 30 or more passes in 5-of-8 contests.

No runner has done well in this backfield, but HB Orville Reynolds (143 rush yards, 1 TD) is the best of the bunch despite averaging just 2.4 YPC. WRs E.J. Scott (373 rec yards, 4 TD) and Cam Serigne (340 rec yards, 2 TD) each have over 30 receptions while averaging less than 11 yards per catch.

The defense is not as embarrassing as the offense, as the unit allows 24.6 PPG (54th in nation) to the opposition. DB Ryan Janvion (79 tackles, 5 TFL) and LB Brandon Chubb (70 tackles, 1 sack) hope they can breathe some life into the team with a solid defensive effort on Thursday.

Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

Game of the Day: Clemson at Wake Forest
By Covers.com

Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+22.5, 42.5)

Wake Forest is winless in the ACC and having some trouble scoring points since moving into conference play. The Demon Deacons hope to solve their offensive problems and play a role in the race at the top of the conference when they host No. 19 Clemson on Thursday. The Tigers are winners of five straight thanks in large part to a defense that has allowed an average of nine points in the last four contests.

That Clemson defense is taking on a Wake Forest rushing attack that ranks last among 128 FBS teams with an average of 34.5 yards on the ground and a scoring offense sitting at 125th with an average of 14.8 points. “We aren't as strong or as physical as we need to be,” Demon Deacons coach Dave Clawson told reporters. “We're very young in a lot of our linemen positions, but that is part of a rebuild. We will get a little stronger every year.” Wake Forest was crushed 56-7 at Clemson last season.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 22-point road faves and are now -22.5. The total opened 43 and is down a half-point.

INJURY REPORT: Clemson - QB Deshaun Watson (Probable, finger), WR Charone Peake (Doubtful, knee). Wake Forest - WR Matt James (Questionable, hand), LB Teddy Matthews (Questionable, ankle), CB Deonte Davis (Questionable, knee).

WEATHER FORECAST: There could be rain early as there is a 49 percent chance of showers leading into kickoff. Wind will blow across the field around 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Tigers looking to re-ignite an offense that has sputtered without freshman phenom QB DeSahun Watson, averaging less than 17 PPG in their last three contests. While Wake Forest has struggled mightily this season they have suffered only one loss at home in this series since 1980 by more than this number. Be careful here." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

ABOUT CLEMSON (6-2 SU, 5-1 ACC, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U): The Tigers are hanging in second place in the Atlantic Division, waiting around in case No. 2 Florida State implodes down the stretch and opens up a spot in the ACC title game. Clemson has been less explosive on offense in three games under quarterback Cole Stoudt, who took over for freshman Deshaun Watson (hand) against Louisville on Oct. 11, but the defense is making up the difference as it held Syracuse to 170 total yards in a 16-6 win on Oct. 25. “As long as we have one more point than the opponent, that’s all that matters,” coach Dabo Swinney told reporters. “We got it done.”

ABOUT WAKE FOREST (2-6 SU, 0-4 ACC, 4-4 ATS, 1-7 O/U): The 23-17 home loss to Boston College on Oct. 25 marked the Demon Deacons’ highest-scoring effort since a 24-21 win over Army on Sept. 20, which matched their best output of the season. Freshman quarterback John Wolford has one touchdown pass and six interceptions in conference play and gets little help from a ground game that totaled 19 yards in the loss to Boston College. “We've got a lot of things to clean up,” Clawson told reporters. “We're early in this process, and if we can establish effort as a starting point, then we are headed in the right direction."

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Tigers last four conference games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 57 percent of bettors are backing visiting Clemson.

Clemson at Wake Forest
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

After last week’s thrilling ACC clash between Florida State and Louisville featured great drama and national implications, this week’s Thursday night TV game features much less fanfare. Clemson visits Wake Forest in an ACC Atlantic battle with the Tigers looking to bolster its claim as the second best team in the conference while the Demon Deacons are in search of their first conference win.

Match-up: Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Venue: BB&T Field in Winston-Salem, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, November 6, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Clemson -21
Last Meeting: 2013, Clemson (-29.5) 56-7 at Clemson

Clemson lost two of its first three games this season, but the Tigers sit at 6-2 and with both losses coming on the road against quality teams, the Tigers could still build an impressive season resume by season’s end. Next week’s game at Georgia Tech will be a tough test as will the annual rivalry game with South Carolina, but winning out is not out of the question for this team. A 10-2 record would not likely be enough to get the Tigers into the national playoff conversation, but it would mean a fourth 10-win regular season in the last five years for Dabo Swinney and the Tigers.

Clemson lost several big name playmakers from last season on offense, but the defense was expected to carry the team. After allowing 45 points with a second half collapse in the opener at Georgia, some major questions were raised, but the Clemson defense has been very tough since, including allowing a total of just 36 points over the last four games in ACC play. The Clemson offense has been limited especially after the injury to freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson. Senior Cole Stoudt has been more of a game manager for the Tigers, but it seems likely that Watson may return in some fashion this week.

The Clemson defense is allowing just 18.3 points per game on the season, but the offensive numbers have been inflated with 73 points against South Carolina State and 50 points against North Carolina early in the season. In three road games, Clemson has scored only 61 points and this will be a big test for the focus of the team coming off a bye week and with a much bigger game ahead next week.

Dave Clawson did an excellent job at Bowling Green, but he opted to take the Wake Forest job last winter, taking over for long-time head coach Jim Grobe in Winston-Salem. This was not a ready-to-go team built by a coach that left for a bigger job, this was a complete rebuild and it has been a difficult first season for the new coaching staff, which was not unexpected. Only 10 returning starters remained for Clawson to start the season and this was a 4-8 team in 2013 and a program with just one bowl appearance in the last five years after making three straight bowl games from 2006 to 2008, actually winning the ACC championship in 2006.

Early season losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Utah State on the road were close games on the scoreboard, but not in the box score and the lone wins this season have come at home against FCS Gardner-Webb and at home against Army with the Wake Forest offense posting only 47 points in those games. Only two teams at the FBS level have scored fewer points per game than Wake Forest this season and in four ACC games, the Demon Deacons have scored just four touchdowns and 37 total points.

The defense for the Demon Deacons has been respectable and freshman quarterback John Wolford has shown some improvement. Wolford has been the starter all season and after throwing 10 interceptions in his first five games, he has just three in his last three games, passing for at least 60 percent completions in each of those games despite facing solid competition. His last game was his best with 242 passing yards on 73 percent completions against Boston College and his last two games have featured by far his highest adjusted quarterback ratings as there is some promise moving forward. Wolford has been sacked 28 times this season as the offensive line has not provided great protection and that should be a problematic matchup for Wake Forest on Thursday night against a formidable Clemson defensive line.

The running game has provided absolutely no help as well and while the average has been hurt by so many sacks allowed, Wake Forest has averaged just over 34 yards rushing per game, easily the worst mark nationally. Through eight games the leading rusher for Wake Forest has a grand total of 143 yards, a good single game average for the top running back on many teams. Wake Forest has been overmatched this season, but a primetime opportunity coming off a bye week may bring out the team’s best.

Clemson won 56-7 last season at home in this matchup, a game that was 21-0 halfway through the first quarter with Tajh Boyd having a big game and not needing to play in the second half. Clemson out-gained Wake Forest 573-222 in that game with only one of 15 Wake Forest drives resulting in more than 37 yards.

Clemson Historical Trends: Clemson is just 8-15-1 ATS vs. Wake Forest since 1990, though they have covered in five of the last seven meetings. The Tigers have won and covered in the last two trips to Wake Forest, but had gone just 1-7-1 ATS in the previous nine. Clemson is just 24-36-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1990, going 7-14-1 ATS as a double-digit road favorite in that span. This will be the largest road favorite spread for Clemson since 1990 at Duke and Clemson is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more points in any venue since 2007.

Wake Forest Historical Trends: The Demon Deacons are 18-11 ATS as a home underdog since 2004 but just 17-21-1 ATS as a double-digit home underdog since 1997. Wake Forest is 3-5 ATS as a home underdog of 20 or more points since 1994 and Wake Forest is 2-8 ATS as an underdog of 20 or more points in any venue since 2010, splitting two instances this season. Wake Forest has covered once in the last five meetings with Clemson while going just 6-28 S/U in this series since 1980.

NCAAF Week 11

Clemson has struggled on road this year, losing at Georgia/Florida State, slipping by BC 17-13; they've won last five games overall, but scored only 18.7 ppg in last three, winning by 6-4-10 points. Clemson is 5-3 in its last eight games as a road favorite, 0-1 this year; they've won five in a row vs Wake Forest (4-1 vs spread), winning 42-13/30-10 in last couple visits here. Young Deacons are 3-1 as double digit underdogs this season; they lost last four games overall, by 10-40-23-6 points. Since '04, Wake is 19-10-1 as home dog. ACC home dogs are 7-6 in conference play.

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