College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 16

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The ACC Coastal may be one of the weaker major conference divisions in the nation, but it has been very competitive the last two years and at this point all seven teams are still legitimately in the running. Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech open the college football weekend Thursday night and the winner of this game will emerge as a serious threat to win the division at 2-1 as both teams have relatively favorable conference schedules.

Match-up: Virginia Tech Hokies at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Date: Thursday, October 16, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -1
Last Meeting: 2013, Virginia Tech (-7) 19-9 at Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh upset Virginia Tech in 2012, the last time the Hokies visited Heinz Field, winning in a 35-17 rout with lopsided yardage as a 10-point underdog after starting the season 0-2. Last season in Blacksburg, it was a different story in a defensive grind as Virginia Tech won 19-9, with the only Pittsburgh touchdown coming with just two minutes left in the game. The Panthers, then with NFL draft pick Tom Savage at quarterback, managed just 210 total yards.

Both teams did very little on the ground in last season’s meeting and run defense has been a strong suit for both teams this season. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while Virginia Tech surrenders only 3.4 yards per rush. That matchup appears to be the key for this game as Pittsburgh rushes for 244 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. As usual, Virginia Tech features a strong secondary and is a tough team to pass against. The Hokies have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 45 percent completions this season.

While Logan Thomas was always frustrating as quarterback for Virginia Tech with a tendency to turn the ball over, that problem has not been resolved with junior Michael Brewer leading the team this season. Brewer has 10 touchdown passes while passing for over 1,400 yards in six games, but he has 11 interceptions including at least one in every single game. The passing game has been limited for Pittsburgh under sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik, who has thrown an interception in all five FBS games as well this season.

This is the third season at Pittsburgh for Paul Chryst after being the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin for a number of years. The Panthers have wound up in bowl games each of the last two seasons, going 6-6 in both regular season campaigns as the team is yet to break through with a great season and that does not appear to be happening in 2014. After a 3-0 start including a road win in the ACC opener, Pittsburgh has now lost three straight games. Falling in a close game with Iowa in which the Panthers had a big yardage edge was perhaps forgivable, but in the last two games, Pittsburgh has lost at home against Akron while scoring just 10 points and then lost 24-19 at Virginia in a game that was not as close as the final score.

For Virginia Tech, a season that started with great promise has also soured in what is the 28th season for Frank Beamer on the sidelines. The Hokies scored a sizable upset at highly ranked Ohio State in the second week of the season, but then lost back-to-back home games against East Carolina and Georgia Tech. The Hokies appear to be back on track with consecutive wins, but it has been a while since Beamer has produced a team that has stayed nationally relevant for a full season.

Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are both 1-1 in ACC play, so while discussion of making the national final four is out, both teams are alive and well in a wide open ACC Coastal division. Virginia is the only team in the division without a loss at this point in the season and it has been a division won with multiple losses each of the last two seasons. North Carolina was actually the favorite to win the division in August and they are the only team in the division without a win in what should truly be a wide open multi-team race that could come down to tiebreakers between multiple 5-3 teams as it did in 2012.

The Pittsburgh season will be defined in the next three games with challenging games in three straight home dates, hosting Georgia Tech and Duke in the following two games. A three-game win streak to cancel out the three-game losing streak that the Panthers are currently on would put Pittsburgh in the Coastal division driver’s seat. Next on the schedule for Virginia Tech is a prominent game with Miami and the schedule does line up well for Virginia Tech relative to its Coastal peers, drawing Boston College and Wake Forest in the two Atlantic games, avoiding Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville.

At this point in the season, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh have nearly identical scoring figures with both teams posting 183 points and Pittsburgh actually allowing five fewer points through six games. The schedule for Virginia Tech rates slightly more difficult, however, with the high quality road win in Columbus. This may be a more critical game for the Pittsburgh season, needing to stop the slide and get some confidence back and a high profile home win in primetime would be just what the team needs. Virginia Tech has been one of the most consistently successful programs in the nation the last two decades and the Hokies have posted plenty of big primetime wins over the years.

Virginia Tech Historical Trends: The Hokies are 0-5 ATS at Pittsburgh since 1997 and 1-6 ATS in the series in any venue since 1999, losing four of the last five meetings S/U going back to 2001. Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite since 2012 after going 21-7 ATS as a road favorite from 2004 to 2011.

Pittsburgh Historical Trends: The Panthers are 23-16 ATS as a home underdog since 1996, but just 25-29-1 ATS at home overall since 2006. Pittsburgh is just 3-6-1 ATS at home since the start of last season.

ACC Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh

The Hokies hit the road for the Steel City trying to make the public happy. It appears Virginia Tech is being backed nearly two-to-one as a road underdog. However, they're just 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC contests. However, they usually do save their best for Thursday night, as Frank Beamer's bunch is 20-8 ATS in their past 28 Thursday night games. Pitt hasn't been much better lately. After a 3-0 start to the season, they have dropped three in a row, and they're 0-3-1 ATS over the past four. However, the Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. In this series, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, with the Hokies going 1-6 ATS in the past seven, and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Pittsburgh.

Pac-12 Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Utah at Oregon State

The Utes carry a Top 20 rankings into Corvallis Thursday night, but the team is still working to improve. QB Kendal Thompson is expected to make his first career start Thursday, replacing the ineffective Travis Wilson. It was Thompson who came on and led the Utes to a shocking road win at UCLA last time out. Oregon State won its last game in Colorado Oct. 4, rebounding for a setback at USC in which the Beavers were trashed 35-10. Utah is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall record, and 4-1 ATS in the past five. However, they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 conference games. Oregon State is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at Reser Stadium, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. However, they are an impressive 16-5 ATS in the past 21 games following a bye.

NCAAF Week 8

UL-Lafayette (-11) beat Texas State 48-24 LY; they were 21-26/360 passing, outgained Bobcats 572-196 in game that was 28-3 at halftime. ULL is 1-3 vs I-A teams, allowing 34+ points in all three losses- 48-20 loss to La Tech is a red flag. Texas State won its last two games by total of 8 points despite allowing 30+ points in each game- they're 0-4 in last four games as a home favorite. Ragin' Cajuns are 2-5 in last seven games as a road underdog, after being 15-2 in seventeen games before that. Sun Belt home favorites are 4-6 vs spread in conference games this year.

Thursday's games
Underdogs covered six of last seven Va Tech-Pitt games, winning four of last five SU; Hokies lost last three visits here, by 18-3-31 points, as Pitt won four of last five series games. Tech already won at Ohio State and North Carolina; win at OSU was its first cover in last seven tries as road underdog. Pitt lost last three games, including a horrible loss to Akron at home; they're 0-2 as home favorites this year, 5-4 under Chryst. ACC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread in conference play.

Home side won four of last five Utah-Oregon State games; Utes lost last two visits here 21-7/24-7- they got upset 51-48 at home by Beavers LY. Utah has road wins at Michigan/UCLA; they've failed to cover last four tries as road favorites. OSU is 2-4 in last six tries as home dog; they gave up 66 points in splitting last two games (won 36-31 at Colorado)- they beat San Diego State in only I-A home game. Underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games, 4-2 at home.

Armadillosports.com

Game of the Day: Utah at Oregon State
By Covers.com

Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers (+2.5, 52.5)

Utah quarterback Kendal Thompson is expected to make his first start Thursday when the Utes visit Oregon State, which won last season’s meeting 51-48 in overtime. Thompson, who transferred in the offseason from Oklahoma, replaced an inefficient Travis Wilson and rushed for 83 yards to spark No. 23 Utah’s 30-28 upset of UCLA on Oct. 4. Utes coach Kyle Whittingham hasn’t named a starter for Thursday, but all signs point to Thompson getting the nod.

After opening Pac-12 play with a 35-10 loss at USC, Oregon State bounced back from a with a 36-31 victory at Colorado on Oct. 4. Beavers senior quarterback Sean Mannion threw five touchdowns in last year’s win over Utah, but brings a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio into this season’s matchup. While Mannion and his young receiving corps has struggled throughout the first half of the season, Oregon State ranks second in the Pac-12 in total defense at 331.4 yards allowed per game.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 2-point road favorites and were bet as high as -3, before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 52 and is now up to 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Oregon State - OL Garrett Weinreich (questionable Thursday, knee). Utah - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be mostly cloudy at kickoff with seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone. There will be a slight nine percent chance of rain.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Utah (-10.5) - Oregon State (-4) + home field (-3) = Oregon State +3.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Utah as a 1.5 point favorite on the road on Sunday and quickly went to -2 as we took a sharp bet at the 1.5 number. On Monday we went up to Utah -3 but by the end of the day we settled on Utah -2.5 were we currently sit with 64 percent of the action. We opened the total 54.5 yesterday and saw a flood of public money come in on the under pushing us to 53.5 this morning we adjusted to 53 then to 51.5 where we had some sharp money come in on the over at that number forcing us back up to 53 with 59% of the action now on the over." - Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Pac-12 rivals Utah and Oregon State will meet in Corvallis on Thursday night. Both teams are 4-1, and both are well rested coming off a bye. The Utes though have climbed into the rankings after upsetting UCLA in Pasadena. The Beavers will likely have their hands full trying to stop Utah's power running game." - Covers Expert Jesse Schule.

ABOUT UTAH (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Running back Devontae Booker had 156 yards on 33 carries against UCLA and could post similar numbers against an Oregon State front seven that is missing two injured starters. The Utes’ defense leads the nation in sacks (5.6 per game) and tackles for loss (10.2 per game), and defensive end Nate Orchard ranks first in the country with 8.5 sacks. The Utes boast one of the top special teams units in the country, led by kicker Andy Phillips and kick returner Kaelin Clay, who leads the Pac-12 in punt return average (23.1).

ABOUT OREGON STATE (4-1, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Terron Ward provided a boost for the Beavers’ offense with 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Colorado, but Mannion has struggled at times while waiting for receivers such as Victor Bolden and Richard Mullaney to become consistent downfield threats. The Beavers rank second in the league in passing efficiency defense, led by linebackers Michael Doctor, D.J. Alexander and Jabral Johnson. Kicker Trevor Romaine has been on a tear since missing the first two games, going 8-for-8 on extra points and 4-for-4 on field goals, including a 47-yarder.

TRENDS:

* Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Utah is 4-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Utah's last eight games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Oregon State's last six home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Just under 52 percent of wagers are backing Utah at -2.5.