College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 3

Texas at Iowa State
October 2, 2013
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

This week's Thursday night ESPN game features a Texas program that has come under great scrutiny this season as the Longhorns look to put an ugly non-conference start behind them and move to 2-0 in Big XII play. Iowa State has also had a tough start to the season opening up 0-2, but the Cyclones delivered a nice win in primetime last week and have been a known upset maker in recent years. Here is a look at both teams and the Thursday night matchup.

Match-up: Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa (grass)
Date: Thursday, October 3, 2013
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Texas -8, Over/Under 56½
Last Meeting: 2012 at Texas, Texas (-10) 33-7

Both Iowa State and Texas already have two losses this season, but most season goals are still intact for both teams as Big XII play starts. Texas already has a conference win after defeating Kansas State two weeks ago, but it has been a tough start to the season for a team that most expected to contend for a Big XII championship or even rise into the national title conversation. The Big XII appears to be wide open with last year's champion Kansas State and two of the favorites Oklahoma State and TCU all tied at the bottom of the conference at 0-1. Most feel that Mack Brown's job is in serious jeopardy with the tough start, but a strong conference season could change that picture. While Brown could probably lose his job with a loss this week, next week's game is the one that could buy him more time with a big win.

Playing in back-to-back bowl games the last two years has been solid progress for Iowa State and Paul Rhoads owns a 25-29 career record in Ames, pretty impressive considering he inherited a team that went 5-19 in two years under Gene Chizik. The Cyclones are in danger of sliding this season as they will need a winning conference campaign to return to the postseason after going 1-2 non-conference play, losing twice in-state with an opening defeat against FCS Northern Iowa and then losing to rival Iowa with both defeats coming at home. The Cyclones did win as a road underdog last Thursday at Tulsa, avenging their Liberty Bowl loss from last season.

Texas featured some of the best defensive numbers in the nation for much of the late 2000s, allowing less than 19 points per game in three of the four seasons from 2006 to 2009. The 2009 squad that lost to Alabama in the BCS Championship game allowed less than 17 points per game and just over 250 yards per game. The yardage numbers were still very strong in 2010 and 2011 despite the team posting mediocre records those seasons, but last year Texas allowed almost 30 points per game and over 400 yards per game, particularly struggling against the run. With nine returning starters from a highly talented pool of players most expected great improvement this season, especially with signs of progress late last season but Texas is currently 109th in the nation in yards per game allowed, surrendering 466 yards per game. The Longhorns do allow just 5.8 yards per play on defense, not a great figure by any means, but closer to average than the total numbers suggest.

In a vacuum, losing to BYU and Mississippi would not be overly damaging as both project to be quality teams this season, but Texas lost in embarrassing fashion. BYU had 550 rushing yards against Texas as quarterback Taysom Hill had a huge game and Texas was unable to make any sort of adjustment to slow him down in the 40-21 loss. After falling behind 14-0 against Ole Miss, a team Texas beat by 35 last season, the Longhorns did rally to lead at halftime, but they did not score again and Mississippi eventually left with a three-touchdown edge in Austin. Losing badly to what most felt was a middle-of-the-pack SEC team did not sit well given the SEC's growing dominance in the region with Texas A&M's recent success. The win over Kansas State was certainly necessary as is this week's tricky road test, but a win next week in Dallas against Oklahoma would change the mind of a lot of folks who have turned on Brown and the program.

Iowa State has not been consistent week-to-week in the Rhoads era, but they have had several notable upsets. The Cyclones won at Nebraska is 2009 as a 20-point underdog and they won at Texas in 2010 as a 20½-point underdog. In 2011, Iowa State changed the landscape of the bowl season dramatically as they stunned then #2 Oklahoma State late in the year as a nearly four-touchdown home underdog. That upset set up the controversial rematch between LSU and Alabama as the Tide would not have had a shot if Oklahoma State remained undefeated. In four-plus seasons, Rhoads has led Iowa State to seven S/U upset wins as an underdog of seven points or more and the Cyclones are 13-10 ATS in those games.

The projections were dire for this year's Iowa State team with many expecting the opener against FCS Northern Iowa to be a challenge, as that is one of the top programs in the lower division. Iowa State had defeated Iowa two years in a row and while this year's game was at home, it was definitely viewed as a potential loss. Playing at Tulsa has been a big challenge for most visiting teams in recent years as Iowa State played well last week to get into the win column, but the rest of the results for Tulsa this season indicate that the win was not all that impressive and four turnovers aided the cause for the Cyclones. Iowa State also has a brutal conference schedule with five of the nine games on the road and Iowa State does not have a bye week the rest of the season. With the exception of the home date with Kansas, Iowa State will almost certainly be an underdog in every other game and this week's spread may actually be one of the lowest of the remainder of the season.

Injuries have not helped the cause for either team in the first month of the season. Texas quarterback David Ash opened the season on the Heisman short list, but he did not even play in the loss to Ole Miss after suffering a concussion against BYU and he left the last game against Kansas State with a head injury as well. His numbers have not been great with just 56 percent completions in the past two games, excluding the opener against lowly New Mexico State. Case McCoy has played reasonably well in relief for Texas, but he is not the same rushing threat that Ash is. Ash is still a question mark to play this week, but running back Daje Johnson is expected to return after missing the last two games with an ankle injury.

For Iowa State, sophomore quarterback Sam Richardson has not missed time, but he has been playing with an ankle injury since the opening week. Richardson rushed for over 200 yards in limited action last season and for over 70 yards in the opener, but he clearly has not been 100 percent since. The Cyclones have had to attack more consistently through the air as Richardson has just 37 rushing yards the last two games but 80 passing attempts. He has thrown three interceptions and has been sacked 10 times in three games so his chances to heal may be limited without another bye week the rest of the year and the Cyclones will likely be at a greater risk for turnovers with the changed role.

This could prove to be a season-defining game for both teams. A loss would certainly send Texas closer to the path that USC took last week in making a coaching change, although with a long-time coach like Brown, a mid-season change is highly unlikely. A win could help build momentum towards next week's huge Red River Rivalry game and build confidence of a team that has been torn apart in the media in the first month of the season. For Iowa State, the bowl hopes look slim, but this is a game they likely need in order to have a shot at the postseason as the road schedule is very daunting. Even if it proves to be a losing season for the Cyclones with the tough slate, a win over Texas on national television would be a satisfying highlight.

Last Meeting: Texas won hosting Iowa State last season as they climbed back into the national rankings prior to the meeting with three consecutive wins. David Ash had a great game as Texas doubled the total yardage of Iowa State in a 33-7 win. After no scoring in the first 11 minutes of the game, Texas scored twice in the span of just over a minute with a one-play scoring drive accounting for the second score and they never looked back. Iowa State would win at Kansas the next week to clinch bowl eligibility with Sam Richardson making an impressive debut as then senior Steele Jantz played the whole game at quarterback for the Cyclones last season.

Series History: Texas is 8-1 S/U and 5-4 ATS since 1998 in this series with the lone loss coming in 2010 at home. Iowa State has been held below 20 points in six of the last seven meetings and the last meeting in Ames was a 37-14 win for Texas as a nine-point favorite early in the 2011 season.

Line Movement: After a delayed opening with Ash's status in limbo, the spread opened at -9 and has fallen to -8. The total has risen from 55 to 56½.

Texas Historical Trends: Since 2000, Texas is 28-22 ATS as a road favorite, including going 11-5 ATS since 2008. Texas has covered in five of the last seven games as a road favorite of less than 10 points, but the Longhorns are just 8-12 ATS in that role since 1997. Since 2000, Texas is 50-10 S/U in road games while going 35-25 ATS, but they have lost badly in the last two road games, losing this year at BYU and to close the regular season last year at Kansas State.

Iowa State Historical Trends: While Iowa State has had some notable upsets in recent years, they have actually not fared well in the home underdog role, going just 46-59-2 ATS since 1980 and just 6-9-1 ATS since 2009 when Rhoads took over. Iowa State has not won as a home underdog since the opening game of last season hosting Tulsa, as the Cyclones are 0-5 S/U and 0-4-1 ATS in the last five attempts, including losing hosting Iowa earlier this season. When the line climbs over seven, Iowa State has been profitable going 30-21 ATS since 2004 when dogged by seven or more points, covering in six of the last nine but none of the last three. Iowa State has not been this big of an underdog since these teams played last season.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

Western Kentucky (-7) at Louisiana-Monroe: The Warhawks were one of the great stories early last season with the upset over Arkansas and then near upsets over Auburn and Baylor. That success was led by quarterback Kolton Browning, who unfortunately likely saw his career end last week with a leg injury. Louisiana-Monroe has a veteran team that already has defeated Wake Forest this season, but this could be a challenging Sun Belt opener given the personnel changes. Western Kentucky has wins over Kentucky and Navy, but also a loss to South Alabama this season and the Hilltoppers look like a threat in the Sun Belt with a strong running game and the program growing under Bobby Petrino. Last season, these teams played a wild 43-42 overtime game with Louisiana-Monroe successfully going for two and the win in the first overtime. Western Kentucky is on an 18-3 ATS run in road games while UL-Monroe is just 18-24-1 ATS at home since 2003.

UCLA (-6) at Utah: The Pac-12 South owns a combined conference record of 1-6 with the lone win coming within the division, as the balance of power still seems to remain in the North. UCLA is the only team in the division without a conference loss already this season, but they also do not have a win as they are the last team to open Pac-12 play. Utah lost its opening conference game at home in a wild game with Oregon State, but the Utes have solid non-conference wins over Utah State and BYU and the team looks much stronger than last year's disappointing 5-7 team. UCLA has arguably the toughest Pac-12 schedule as they play both Oregon and Stanford on the road, which precluded many from projecting the Bruins as the champion in the division. UCLA does have a great non-conference win over Nebraska already under its belt and the offense has posted huge numbers so far this season. UCLA is just 24-36 ATS as a road favorite since 1988 while Utah does not lose often at home, going 34-10 S/U and 24-18-1 ATS since 2006.

Thursday's NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones (+8, 56.5)

A win over Kansas State quieted the critics briefly, but Texas still has some work to do to get back national attention. The Longhorns look to put together back-to-back wins for the first time this season when they visit Iowa State on Thursday. Texas coach Mack Brown is under fire to put a championship-caliber team back on the field, and even school legend Earl Campbell recently called for his firing.

“Nobody likes to get fired or leave a job, but things happen,” Campbell told KRIV-TV in Houston. “I’d go on record and say yes, I think it’s time.” Brown is under contract until 2020 with one of the largest annual salaries in the NCAA but is just 24-18 since a loss to Alabama in the 2009 National Championship game. The Cyclones don’t have quite the storied history of the Longhorns but are always a pesky opponent for the Big 12’s top tier and are coming off an impressive win over Tulsa.

LINE: Texas opened at -9 and has moved to -7.5. Total moved from 56 to 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, with 73 percent chance of thunder showers, winds blowing S at 3 mph.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 35-17 in Cyclones' last 52 games overall.

Western Kentucky Hilltopppers at UL Monroe Warhawks (+7, 48.5)

The Warhawks will be without starting QB Kolton Browning Thursday. He is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a quad injury. Browning, who has passed for 967 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions, will be replaced with backup sophomore Brayle Brown, who is making his first start. UL Monroe is 2-3 on the year, having lost two straight and allowing 101 total points in defeats to Baylor and Tulane.

Western Kentucky comes into Thursday riding back-to-back wins over FCS Morgan State and Navy, covering the spread in both games. Hilltoppers RB Antonio Andrews has been a dominant force on offense with 727 rushing yards, 154 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. WKU will be out for revenge after losing to ULM in overtime during last year’s homecoming.

LINE: WKU opened as a 4.5-point favorite and was bet up to -7. Total steady at 48.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 80s, 20 percent chance of thunder showers with winds blowing SE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Warhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes (+5.5, 60.5)

After winning its first three games in convincing fashion, UCLA begins Pac-12 play on Saturday at Utah, where the 13th-ranked Bruins have been outscored 75-12 in their last two visits. The Utes have the personnel to keep pace with a UCLA offense averaging 52.7 points, but Utah's defense remains a question mark. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and UCLA should be particularly well-rested after routing New Mexico State 59-13 on Sept. 21.

Utah opened the last two seasons with four straight conference losses before dropping this year's opener 51-48 in overtime to Oregon State on Sept. 14. The Utes followed the close loss with an impressive 20-13 win at BYU on Sept. 21, when sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson continued his strong play with 273 passing yards and two touchdowns. Wilson needs a repeat performance against UCLA, which is seeking its first 4-0 start since 2005 after winning its first three games by a total of 93 points.

LINE: UCLA opened as a 3.5-point favorite and has moved to -5.5. Total moved from 61.5 to 60.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 40s with 71 percent chance of snow and winds blowing NNW at 13 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Utes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.
* Over is 8-2 in Bruins' last 10 games overall.

NCAAF Week 6

Texas QB Ash (concussion) is out; McCoy gets start here, with a more mobile QB Swoopes expected to play. Longhorns are 7-1 in last eight games vs Iowa State, winning 33-7/37-14 in last two meetings. Texas won last four visits to Ames, with last three wins here by 21+; they're 11-7 in last 18 games as road favorite, but lost 40-21 at BYU in only road game this yeaer, allowing 550 rushing yards. Cyclones are 6-9 as home underdogs under Rhoads- they've already lost to a I-AA team this year, having lost 13 of 22 starters from LY. Texas covered four of last six series games.

Last four Western Kentucky-ULM games were decided by total of 12 points, with underdogs covering all four and ULM winning three-- teams split a pair of 3-point decisions here. ULM has 673 passing yards in last two meetings. WKU is 4-1 as road favorite but is 0-2 on road this year; they gave up 82 points in losses at Tennessee/USA. ULM won at Wake Forest but lost last week as 13-point home favorite vs Tulane, bad loss; they are 7-5 in last dozen games as a home dog. Hilltoppers beat Navy and Kentucky but turned ball over five times in six plays at Tennessee.

Home side won last four UCLA-Utah games, with three of four games decided by 21+ points. Bruins are 4-2 as road favorite last five seasons, 2-2 under Mora- they're scoring 52.7 ppg this year, winning 41-21 in its only road game, at Nebraska. Over last decade, Utah is 6-2 as home dog; its two I-A home games this year were decided by total of seven points. UCLA outgained first three opponents by average of 206 yards a game, running ball for 284.3 ypg. Utes allowed 443+ TY in all three of its I-A games; they've been off since 20-13 (+6.5) rivalry win at BYU.

Armadillosports.com

Horns, Bruins face road traps
By Sportsbook.ag

TEXAS LONGHORNS (2-2) at IOWA STATE CYCLONES (1-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas -8 & 57
Opening Line & Total: Longhorns -8 & 57

Texas will attempt to go 2-0 in conference play and turn its season around Thursday night when it visits an Iowa State team trying to make its mark in the Big 12.

The Longhorns were a disappointment in 2012, as head coach Mack Brown led them to a 9-4 overall record with a 5-4 record during conference play. The team has not improved too much so far in 2013, going 2-2 in their first four games with losses coming from two non-conference teams (at BYU, Ole Miss at home). The Cyclones have been a team looking to find its identity over the past few years, attempting to have its first winning season since going 7-6 and finishing fourth in the Big 12 in 2009. ISU should have some momentum going into this game coming off a 38-21 win at Tulsa, its first victory of the season. Since 1992, these two teams have played each other a total of nine times with the Longhorns coming out on top in eight contests, including the past two meetings. Texas has not done as well covering the spread in these meetings with a 5-4 ATS mark. In Iowa, the Longhorns are undefeated with a 4-0 SU record (3-1 ATS). Texas starting QB David Ash is doubtful for this game after suffering his second head injury of the year against Kansas State before last week's bye. His dual-threat play will be missed if they are forced to turn to senior Case McCoy under center if Ash is declared out. Iowa State will counter them with a solid passing offense (50th nationally) led by Sam Richardson, who is probable despite a nagging ankle injury. Texas has gone 17-8 SU over their past 25 games and this is a must-win for the Longhorns if they hope to have the type of season expected of them and compete for the Big 12 championship. Iowa State is 1-4 both straight up and ATS in their last five games and will need a solid performance from all of their players to keep this game close.

Texas was expected to come into the 2013 season and compete for the Big 12 championship, but recent performances have put both the team and Mack Brown on the hot seat. QB David Ash (760 passing yards, 7 TD) is doubtful for the Thursday night game against Iowa State after missing the second half of his last game with a head injury. He was replaced by senior QB Case McCoy who has been a decent fill-in for Ash over the season. McCoy has one start on the year, which came in a 44-23 loss at home against Ole Miss, when the senior completed 24-of-36 passes (67%) for 196 yards and a touchdown. McCoy has completed 64% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions overall in his four years at Texas. Complementing McCoy on offense will be RB Jonathan Gray, who on the year has rushed the ball 66 times for 350 yards (5.3 YPC) and three touchdowns. Gray is coming off a huge game against Kansas State where he carried the ball 28 times for 141 yards (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns. On the defensive side of the ball, look for top DE prospect Jackson Jeffcoat and CB Carrington Byndom to try and improve the Longhorns' mediocre 28.0 PPG allowed, which ranks 78th overall in the nation. Texas will need to keep using both the run (36th in nation) and pass (37th in nation) to go 2-0 in the Big 12.

Iowa State has struggled for years in the tough Big 12 conference, but has a group of young players that look to turn around the fortune of the program. QB Sam Richardson is one of these young players and has put together a solid season so far. In three games, Richardson has completed 62.5% of his passes for 757 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He has been relied on heavily as a sophomore, averaging just over 37 pass attempts per game with multiple touchdowns in each contest. One of the top players receiving these passes has been WR Quenton Bundrage, another sophomore. He has 13 receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns on the season. The Cyclones will look towards RB Aaron Wimberly to continue his great play from last week against Tulsa (137 rushing yards) and revive their 92nd-ranked rushing attack (135 YPG). Veteran leadership from LB Jeremiah George (27 tackles) will be needed to help Iowa State's 66th-ranked defense (25.3 PPG allowed) to slow down Texas.

UCLA BRUINS (3-2) at UTAH UTES (1-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: UCLA -7 (-105) & 62.5
Opening Line & Total: Bruins -6 & 62.5

UCLA begin its quest towards a second straight Pac-12 Championship game appearance, but Utah will attempt to use its home field advantage to pull off an upset on Thursday night.

These two high-octane offenses will clash in what looks to be an intriguing Pac-12 matchup. The 2013 season has been good to the Bruins so far as they have gone undefeated over their first three non-conference games and are looking forward to starting conference play and a chance at a second straight visit to the Pac-12 Championship out of the South division. Utah, on the other hand, did not enjoy success in 2012, finishing in 5th place in the South division with a 3-6 record during conference play. A group of young players has moved up to the top of the Utes' depth chart and looks to change the combined feel of the team. Overall, these two teams have played each other four times, splitting the series with two wins each. Neither team has been able to win on the road in this matchup, as Utah is 2-0 at home and has beat UCLA by an average of 31.5 PPG in those matchups. This Pac-12 showdown will be very important for both teams, as UCLA attempts to show that its 2012 season was no fluke, and the Utes look to put their first conference loss, a 51-48 overtime defeat to Oregon State, behind them. The Bruins are only 6-13 over their past 19 games on the road. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, Utah has gone 7-12 in conference play and is 16-12 overall. This could be a real barnburner if both top-20 offenses are firing on all cylinders.

UCLA has dominated its opponents this year, winning each of its first three games by an average of 34.7 PPG. A 59-13 blowout in their last game against New Mexico State (0-5) does skew the numbers a bit, but a 20-point quality win at No. 23 Nebraska (3-1) and a 38-point victory against Nevada (3-2) were no easy tasks. Leading the Bruins in their three victories this year has been QB Brett Hundley. With 848 passing yards (66.3% completion rate), 8 TD and 3 INT, Hundley has the Bruins ranked 12th in the nation in passing. Hundley also can keep the ball himself as he has run for 157 yards (4.9 YPC) and two touchdowns. WR Shaquelle Evans has been Hundley’s main target so far in 2013 with 210 yards receiving (16.2 average) and three touchdowns. The Bruins will look to combine their high-octane passing attack with the nation’s 13th-ranked rushing attack, led by Jordan James, who has averaged nearly seven yards per carry (6.8) in 2013, and has totaled 424 yards and four touchdowns. UCLA will also feature 2012 All-Conference LB Anthony Barr (19 tackles, 1 sack) and the 29th-ranked defense (18.0 PPG allowed) to slow down Utah.

Solid recruiting by Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has brought young talent to the team’s starting lineup, and with that has developed a top 20-offense. One recruit that can be thanked for this rejuvenation is sophomore QB Travis Wilson. In 2013, he has racked up 1,118 passing yards (280 YPG), 251 rushing yards (7.8 YPC) and 14 total touchdowns (9 passing). Another young player who looks to bolster the Utah rushing attack for the next few years is James Poole, who has helped the Utes to an average of 219 rushing YPG (31st in FBS). Poole has added 424 total yards (304 rushing) and one touchdown for this Utah offense. A third key offensive contributor this year has been Dres Anderson who has caught 18 passes for 404 yards and three touchdowns. These three players will need to be at the top of their games to keep up with UCLA's prestigious offense. Attempting to help tame that Bruins offense will be DE Trevor Reilly, who has tallied 25 tackles and two sacks on the year. Overall, the Utes rank 29th in the nation in rushing defense, allowing only 118 YPG on the ground. Over their past 25 games at home, Utah has compiled a solid 18-7 record, and they will look to continue to use their home field as an advantage and outscore UCLA for their first conference win of 2013.

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