TROY (1 - 7) at GA SOUTHERN (6 - 2) - 10/30/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GA SOUTHERN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
GA SOUTHERN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
FLORIDA ST (7 - 0) at LOUISVILLE (6 - 2) - 10/30/2014, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
TROY vs. GA SOUTHERN
Troy is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Troy's last 25 games
Ga Southern is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Ga Southern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
FLORIDA STATE vs. LOUISVILLE
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida State is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Louisville's last 7 games at home
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Troy at Georgia Southern
Troy: 22-9 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Georgia S: 7-1 ATS in all lined games
Florida State at Louisville
Florida St: 36-20 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Louisville: 7-20 ATS in home games after playing 3 straight conference games
StatFox Super Situations
TROY at GA SOUTHERN
Play Over - Any team vs the the 1rst half total a very good team (>=+10 PPG diff.) against a terrible team (<=-10 PPG diff.) after 7 or more games, after a win by 21 or more points
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
Florida State at Louisville
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The Thursday night showcase games for the ACC have not exactly been matchups of major national significance that last two weeks but that changes this week. The undefeated defending national champions will face a difficult road game for the first time all season as Florida State visits Louisville in an ACC Atlantic clash that could alter the national landscape should the Cardinals deliver an upset. Here is a look at the teams and the matchup for Thursday night college football.
Match-up: Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
Venue: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Kentucky
Date: Thursday, October 30, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: Florida State -5
Last Meeting: 2002, Louisville 26-20 (+15) at home
Florida State may not be #1 in any of the rankings and the Seminoles have certainly had some lackluster performances this season but they are 7-0 and riding a 23-game winning streak, still holding the college football throne so to speak. While right now the case can be made that Florida State might not be one of the best four teams in the country, by season's end if the Seminoles are 13-0 with another ACC Championship, there is no question that they will be one of the four teams in the national playoff.
This season has been marred by controversy with star quarterback and 2013 Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston involved in a number of off-the-field transgressions, ultimately leading to his suspension for the game with Clemson. It seems like every week there is a new story or concern and this week it involved running back Karlos Williams and a domestic assault investigation. Williams is the leading rusher for the Seminoles and his status is in question for a game that many feel could be the most difficult remaining game for Florida State.
Florida State is averaging 38 points per game this season but this has been a much more pass-oriented team than last season with a decline of about 80 yards per game on the ground at this point in the season. Florida State is still one of the top passing teams in the nation with currently nearly an identical per game total in the air as last season's championship squad. Scoring points has not been the issue for the Seminoles in a 7-0 start that has featured just one narrow ATS win however.
The Florida State defense certainly lost some key players from last season but after allowing just 12 points per game and 282 yards per game this year's squad has allowed more than 100 more yards per game and nearly 10 more points per game in 2014. The #1 team in the nation in yards per game allowed this season is Thursday's opponent, Louisville. The Cardinals are allowing just 238 yards per game this season vs. FBS teams, best in the nation by 32 yards. Louisville has the second best scoring defense in the nation surrendering fewer than 14 points per game vs. FBS competition.
Louisville was outstanding on defense last season in a 12-1 campaign under Charlie Strong but most felt the biggest impact of the return of a former Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino would be on offense. Petrino was wildly successful at Louisville before leaving to take the Atlanta Falcons job, a short-lived endeavor that ended in embarrassing fashion. Petrino's subsequent stay at Arkansas ended in even more humiliating fashion but resurfacing the past two years at Western Kentucky it is clear that Petrino can coach, regardless of his personal faults.
Replacing Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback has been a huge challenge and in a 6-2 start for the Cardinals Louisville has actually used four different quarterbacks at times this season. Sophomore Will Gardner is leading the way but he missed two games with a knee injury as freshman Reggie Bonnafon has played significantly as well this season. Gardner has 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions but the completion percentages have been very low for the entire group especially compared to the efficiency that the offense had last season under the current starter for the Minnesota Vikings.
Five players have scored rushing touchdowns for Louisville this season as it has been a committee approach with Michael Dyer reemerging as the main threat in the last game for the Cardinals with his best game since the 2011 season. The offensive numbers are poor for the Cardinals overall however, ranking 111th nationally in total offense and the scoring average of nearly 31 points per game is inflated with 66 points put up against FCS Murray State.
Louisville does have two losses in conference play but both games were on the road and the losses came by a total of just eight points combined. Louisville's opening week win over Miami is looking more impressive by the week but the rest of the resume does lack substance and this will obviously be a huge step up in class as far as the opposition for the Louisville defense. Florida State would likely still win the ACC Atlantic even if they are upset this week but this is a great opportunity for the Cardinals to make a national splash and climb back into the rankings. For the Seminoles it will be another team giving the defending champions their best shot in a game of survival. Florida State does play at Miami in two weeks and will host games with Virginia, Boston College, and Florida to close out the regular season for a fairly challenging close to the season before likely facing an ACC title game. There is no margin for error for the Seminoles however.
Many felt before the season a one-loss Florida State team could still make the four-team national playoff but that looks less likely at this point and it seems that if there winds up being a close call, the Seminoles might be penalized for all the negative storylines surrounding the team as while the program is back to being at the top of the college football mountain, its image as villainous and perhaps less than honorable program has also returned.
Florida State Historical Trends: Florida State is 7-0 S/U but 1-6 ATS this season narrowly covering as a heavy home favorite against Wake Forest for the lone ATS win of the season. Florida State was 11-3 ATS in last season's 14-0 campaign. These teams have not met since 2002 but Louisville has covered in each of the last four meetings though with just one S/U win. Since 2003 Florida State is on a 19-24 ATS run as a road favorite but the Seminoles are 6-3 ATS in the last nine instances as a single-digit road favorite.
Louisville Historical Trends: Louisville is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 games as an underdog including covering in the lone instance this season (at Clemson). Louisville is just 9-15 ATS as a home underdog going back to 1994, going 2-7 ATS in the last nine instances going back to the 2008 season. Louisville has not been a home underdog since 2011 however.
Noles face road test
By Sportsbook.ag
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (7-0) at LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (6-2)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Florida State -3.5, Total: 52
No. 2 Florida State looks to protect its flawless record when its heads to Louisville on Thursday night.
The Seminoles have not lost since Nov. 24, 2012, putting their streak at 23 straight victories. They have defeated their opponents this season by an average of 16.3 PPG, but are still a meager 1-6 ATS. FSU once again failed to cover in its most recent contest on Oct. 18 against No. 5 Notre Dame, as the 'Noles escaped with a 31-27 win as nine-point favorites at home. The Irish actually outgained FSU by a sizable 470-323 margin in that contest while the Seminoles had a weak 50 rushing yards on 1.9 YPC while forcing two turnovers.
Louisville is a solid 5-3 ATS on the season and has gone a perfect 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) when playing at home. In its last game on Oct. 18, it hosted NC State as a big 18-point favorite and earned a 30-18 victory. The Cardinals were able to answer all of NC State’s scores in the second half after building up a 17-6 lead at halftime in a game where each team compiled more than 350 yards of total offense while Louisville was able to get it done on the ground (166 rush yards, 5.0 YPC) while not committing a turnover.
These two programs have not faced each other since the 2002 campaign when the Cardinals pulled out a big 26-20 upset as 14-point underdogs after trailing 13-6 at the half. Some trends to keep an eye on for this one include Louisville's meager 7-20 ATS record in home games after playing three straight conference games since 1992, while Florida State has managed to go only 1-7 ATS in the past three seasons after failing to cover the spread in two of their previous three games.
On the injury report HB Mario Pender (ankle) is questionable for Florida State, while the status of WR James Quick (ankle) and LB Lorenzo Mauldin (hamstring) should be watched as they were both injured last game while being listed as probable for this contest.
Florida State has one of the better aerial attacks in the nation, producing 316.7 passing YPG (14th in nation) while struggling on the ground (125.9 YPG, 104th in FBS) and rank 19th in scoring (37.9 PPG). Last season’s Heisman trophy winner, QB Jameis Winston (1,878 pass yards, 13 TD, 6 INT) is relied on heavily in this offense and has at least 31 attempts in five of his six games. He has posted three 300-yard performances in that time while hitting for 71% of his passes on the season.
Joining him in the backfield is HB Karlos Williams (378 rush yards, 7 TD) who has scored at least one touchdown in 4-of-6 games played while getting over the century mark just once. Williams may not play in this game though, with off-field problems regarding an alleged drug-deal robbery and a domestic battery case. If Williams doesn't play, the 'Noles will lean more heavily on freshman HB Dalvin Cook (270 rush yards, 3 TD) who has also done well recently with a 122-yard effort (5.3 YPC) and a touchdown against Syracuse two games ago.
WR Rashad Greene (791 rec yards, 4 TD) has been dominant in the receiving game with 6+ receptions in five of seven games while averaging 15.2 yards per catch. WR Jesus Wilson (307 rec yards) also has been big in the red zone with 4 TD of his own.
Their defense has looked pretty good while giving up 21.6 PPG to their opponents and allowing 146.6 YPG on the ground. The big performances on this side of the ball have come from LB Terrance Smith (60 tackles, 1 sack) and DB Jalen Ramsey (47 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).
Louisville’s offense has been below average this year, tallying 225.8 YPG in the air (72nd in nation) and 144.6 YPG on the ground (90th in FBS) and scoring 30.9 PPG (58th in nation). QB Will Gardner (1,151 pass yards, 11 TD, 2 INT) has missed two games this season and has both his interceptions in one contest. He has multiple passing touchdowns in five of six games while hitting on just 57.3% of his passes for 7.0 YPA.
The run game is split between HBs Brandon Radcliff (389 rush yards, 6 TD) and Dominique Brown (374 rush yards, 4 TD) while HB Michael Dyer (238 rush yards, 1 TD) was the go-to guy in the most recent game as he had 173 yards on 24 attempts (7.2 YPC) with a score against NC State. WR James Quick (451 rec yards, 3 TDs) is probable for this game and has two performances with more than 100 yards on the year while WR Eli Rogers (316 rec yards, 2 TD) has been effective as the slot receiver with a score in each of the past two games.
LB Lorenzo Mauldin (35 tackles, 6 sacks) and DL Sheldon Rankins (29 tackles, 5 sacks) have given opposing offenses plenty of headaches as their defense as a whole ranks fourth in the nation in scoring defense with 14.6 PPG allowed.
Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
Game of the Day: Florida State at Louisville
By Covers.com
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals (+4.5, 50.5)
One year after averaging a margin of victory of 39.5 points en route to a national title, No. 2 Florida State has proven it also can handle itself in tighter contests. The Seminoles, who hope to extend their winning streak to 24 games on Thursday at Louisville, have rallied from second-half deficits three times in 2014. Florida State edged then-No. 5 Notre Dame 31-27 on Oct. 18 after the Fighting Irish were called for offensive pass interference on a potential game-winning score in the final seconds.
The Seminoles haven’t come close to matching last season’s dominance – winning three of their contests by six points or fewer, including one in overtime – and could see their school-record streak snapped with another slow start against the Cardinals. Louisville leads FBS in total defense (243.8 yards) and ranks fourth overall in scoring defense (14.6 points). The Cardinals, who have held each of their six conference foes under their season scoring average, are coming off a 30-18 victory over North Carolina State on Oct. 18 and have won 22 in a row at home under coach Bobby Petrino.
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Noles as 6.5-point road faves, but that has moved to 4.5. The total opened 50.5.
INJURY REPORT: Seminoles - DB Trey Marshall (Questionable, concussion), DT Demarcus Christmas (Questionable, ankle), QB Sean Maguire (Questionable, hand), RB Mario Pender (Doubtful, ankle).
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the field at 3 mph. There is a small 11 percent chance of rain.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Last tough test for the defending national champions who will need to bring their ‘A’ game against the Cardinals top-ranked defense. Plenty of hurdles for FSU to overcome here. The off-field distractions won’t help chances and Louisville’s 24-7 ATS mark against the ACC games makes laying points difficult. But if anyone can overcome obstacles it's certainly QB Jameis Winston." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "As I stated in the opening line report, the home team is a very live dog here. Sharps have been all over Louisville, moving the spread from +7 to +4. We'll probably see some money come back on the Noles closer to kickoff so I doubt this gets to +3. The total has remained pretty constant and we've got decent two-way action on it." John Lester, BookMaker.eu.
ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (7-0 SU, 4-0 SU ACC, 1-6 ATS, 3-4 O/U): The Tallahassee Police Department announced on Monday that it is investigating Karlos Williams – the team’s leading rusher – for an alleged domestic assault. Rashad Greene, who leads the conference in receptions (52) and receiving yards (791), needs seven more catches to pass former Wake Forest receiver Michael Campanaro (229 from 2010-13) for fifth place on the conference’s all-time list. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston became the first FBS quarterback since 2000 to begin his collegiate career 20-0 as a starter following the Seminoles’ win over Notre Dame.
ABOUT LOUISVILLE (6-2 SU, 4-2 SU ACC, 5-3 ATS, 1-6-1 O/U): DeVante Parker, who had yet to play due to an August toe injury after leading the Cardinals in receiving last season, tied a personal best with nine catches for 132 yards in his season debut versus the Wolfpack. Former Auburn star and 2011 BCS championship game offensive MVP Michael Dyer enjoyed his finest effort with Louisville, posting career highs of 24 carries and 181 total yards. Linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin (hamstring) and receiver James Quick (ankle) left the Cardinals’ last victory and did not return, but both are expected to play versus the Seminoles.
TRENDS:
* Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last seven conference games.
* Cardinals are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Cardinals last seven conference games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 62 percent of bets are supporting the visiting Seminoles.
NCAAF Week 10
Georgia Southern won last five games, four by 20+ points; they are 1-1 as home favorite in first year in I-A- their only two losses are to teams in ACC, by 1-4 points. Troy is 1-7, has already run its longtime coach into retirement; they've allowed 80 points, 723 rushing yards in last two games, are 1-2-1 as road dogs this season, are 22-18-3 in that role last 10+ years. Eagles ran ball for 335+ yards in each of their five games that weren't against the ACC teams (246-283 in those).
Florida State hasn't played since dramatic Notre Dame win 12 days ago; they're 1-6 vs spread this year, 0-2 as road favorites, but they won road games by 15-18 points, with 37-31 win over Oklahoma State on neutral field. Seminoles are 4-8 as road favorites last 2+ years. Louisville is 3-0 at home, allowing 13.7 ppg vs I-A teams; over last decade, they're 3-7 vs spread as home underdogs, but covered last eight games as an underdog, all on road. Cardinals' losses this year are at Virginia by 2, Clemson by 6. ACC home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in conference games.
Amadillosports.com
ACC Report - Week 10
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Florida State at Louisville
The defending champs hit the road after last week's bye looking to get on track. While they have been winning, they're still just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games overall, 0-4 ATS in their past four home games and 2-7 ATS in their past nine road games against a team with a winning home record. As mentioned above, there is off-the-field controversy with RB Karlos Williams and an alleged domestic violence issue. The soap opera continues in Tallahassee. For Louisville, they are 4-1 ATS in the past five against a winning team, 16-5 ATS in their past 21 conference tilts dating back to their days in the AAC and Big East, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games overall. FSU will need to play at its best to come home with a victory.