College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 31

Thursday's College Action
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The Thursday Night college football schedule features four nationally televised games this week for a packed Halloween night. While none of the four games will have a major impact on the national picture, they are meaningful games in the conference races. Here is a brief look at all four games to close out October and start the 10th week of the college football season.

South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars (-17½)

While most assume that Central Florida’s upset win over Louisville two weeks ago decided the AAC title and the corresponding BCS bowl game bid, Houston made an emphatic statement last week they deserve to be in the conversation with a 49-14 win at Rutgers. Six turnovers helped the cause for Houston and the Cougars own by far the best turnover margin in the nation at +20. After this game Houston has Central Florida and Louisville in back-to-back weeks with both games on the road but for now Houston holds the top spot in the conference and has clinched a return to the postseason with a sixth win last week after going just 5-7 last season. A veteran offense was expected to be very productive this season but the defense has made great strides this season after allowing 483 yards per game last year.

South Florida has been a nationally ranked team at times in three of the last five seasons but the program has fallen on hard times lately. Skip Holtz was fired after a 3-9 season in 2012 and things started very poorly for former Western Kentucky head coach Willie Taggert with an ugly 0-4 start this season that featured losses to McNeese State and Florida Atlantic. South Florida did manage to pick up wins over Cincinnati and Connecticut but they were soundly out-gained in both of those games and the rebuilding process will take some time. The Bulls have scored just 14 points per game this season and they have had less than half the per game production on offense compared with Houston, posting just over 240 yards per game on only 4.2 yards per play. The defensive numbers compare favorably with Houston as the Cougars have been fortunate with turnovers to only allow 22 points per game on the season.

These teams have not met since 2002 but South Florida is 10-4 ATS all time when dogged by at least 17 points while going 11-6-1 ATS in the last 18 games as an underdog overall. Houston has held a very tough home field in recent years, going 21-10-1 ATS since 2008, including going 18-6-1 ATS as a home favorite in that span.

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-4½)

Rice went 7-6 last season with a bowl win and while many thought the Owls could take another step forward this season, contending for a Conference USA title seemed like a bit of a reach. Louisiana Tech entered the West division this season and perennial Conference USA power Tulsa looked like a threat to repeat as conference champion. At this point in the season Rice is 4-0 in conference play and they already have a big win at Tulsa. They are currently tied with Tulane on top of the West division and the Owls will be favored in the three remaining games after this week. Rice was out-gained in three games on the current five-game winning streak however and this is a challenging scheduling spot as Rice is playing a fourth road game on five weeks. Statistically Rice and North Texas have very similar numbers on both sides of the ball with Rice featuring the superior rushing attack but also a defense that is more vulnerable on the ground.

The jump from the Sun Belt to Conference USA sounds daunting but given the current make-up of the league North Texas has fit in just fine, off to a 3-1 start in conference play and at 5-3 overall. The lone loss came at Tulane in a game where the Mean Green had a 133 yard edge. North Texas enters this game coming off back-to-back road wins but similar to what can be said for Rice, the recent competition has been very weak. North Texas is 3-0 at home this season S/U and ATS and the win over Ball State looks pretty impressive at this point in the season. Despite these teams being in the same division they have not yet had a common opponent and it is not a stretch to say the winner will be in great position for the division title. Tulane has some difficult conference games remaining and has been fortunate this season so whoever wins Thursday night will have a great chance to make the conference title game.

Rice has covered in nine of the last 11 road games while winning five of the last six road contests S/U. These teams played in 2010 with Rice winning 32-31 at North Texas in a game where the Mean Green had a substantial yardage edge. North Texas is just 19-26 ATS at home since 2005 but they are 11-5 in the last 16 instances. Since 1999 North Texas is 19-14 ATS as a home favorite, including 5-2 ATS in the last seven instances and 2-0 ATS this season.

UL-Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-3)

Louisiana-Monroe lost its first Sun Belt game 31-10 at home against Western Kentucky but the Warhawks have won back-to-back games to stay relevant in the conference race. The statistics are a bit skewed for Louisiana-Monroe with losses to Baylor and Oklahoma by a 104-7 combined score taking a major toll on the numbers. The Warhawks scored a big win for the program at Wake Forest early in the season, a win that looks better as the season has played out but four times this season UL-Monroe has failed to top 14 points as consistency has been a problem. UL-Monroe is gaining just 4.8 yards per play on the season and the season goals changed dramatically with the loss of senior quarterback Kolton Browning who is remembered for his heroics in the upset over Arkansas last season. Louisiana-Lafayette leads the Sun Belt and has looked like the best team in the conference so while the winner of this game won’t be in a great position in the conference race; the loser will likely be knocked out with a second conference loss.

After winning just five games last season Troy has already reached five wins this season, currently riding a three-game winning streak entering this game off a big upset at Western Kentucky last weekend. Troy was soundly out-gained last week but this is a team that seems to play close games almost every week. Troy has four wins by seven points or less this season but two losses have also come by just seven points. Troy has only played one of the last six games on the road and the Trojans are 3-0 S/U at home this season, though just 1-2 ATS. Troy is led by senior quarterback Corey Robinson who is completing over 70 percent of his passes and the Trojans throw for 325 yards per game. The offensive statistics are far superior for the home team in this matchup but the Troy defense has struggled, allowing 6.5 yards per play and nearly 33 points per game.

These teams did not play last season but UL-Monroe won 38-10 at Troy in 2011 in the last meeting. That was a down season for the Trojans but UL-Monroe has covered in six of the last eight meetings going back to 2003. UL-Monroe is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 road games and 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games as an underdog. Troy is 42-11 S/U at home since 2003 but they are just 5-14 ATS since 2010 in home games and just 3-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2010.

Arizona State Sun Devils (-11) at Washington State Cougars

As usual the Pac-12 South has looked much weaker than the Pac-12 North and Arizona State is in a position that they have been each of the last two seasons, leading the division near the midpoint of the conference season. Despite strong starts in conference play the Sun Devils have always faded and the 3-1 start this season to lead the division by themselves will be tested with a challenging closing schedule. Arizona State’s only conference loss came at Stanford and the Sun Devils have battled through a very difficult schedule overall, splitting non-conference games with Wisconsin and Notre Dame. The statistics are impressive for the Sun Devils, out-gaining foes by nearly 160 yards per game on average with 509 yards of offense per game and good balance between the running and passing attacks. The Arizona State defense has allowed more points than last season’s average but the yardage numbers have been very good, especially against the run considering the competition faced. Arizona State is coming off back-to-back dominant home wins over Colorado and Washington but the Sun Devils have not won a single game away from home this season while going just 8-20 S/U in road games the past five plus seasons.

At 4-4 it has already been a season of improvement for Washington State in the second season behind Mike Leach as Washington State has not won more than four games in a season since 2007 and the Cougars were just 3-9 last year. With the four remaining games, topping four wins will not be easy but Washington State has two conference wins for just the second time since 2007. While getting to a bowl game is probably a stretch for Washington State the team has been far more competitive as the 6-2 ATS record can attest. Washington State gave Auburn a very close game in the opening week and the win over USC was one of the biggest wins for the program in many years. In three of the last four games Washington State has lost by at least 22 points while getting out-gained by at least 160 yards but they have faced an extremely tough schedule and the Cougars took care of business in beating California to make it clear they are no longer at the bottom of the conference. As expected this is one of the top passing offenses in the nation, throwing for 373 yards per game but the defense is allowing 440 yards per game, an average that is actually worse than last season.

Arizona State won 46-7 last season at home but as a similar favorite in Pullman in 2011 the Sun Devils lost 37-27. Washington State has covered in four of the last six meetings including three straight meetings at home. Arizona State is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite under Todd Graham however, winning both instances last season. Washington State was 2-1 ATS as a home underdog last season but they failed in 52-24 loss in the lone instance this season hosting Oregon State, though it is worth noting that game was very tight until a disastrous turnover-filled fourth quarter for the Cougars.

Thursday's NCAAF Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

South Florida Bulls at Houston Cougars (-17.5, 53.5)

Houston must avoid looking ahead to a pair of American Athletic Conference showdowns when they host South Florida for a Halloween clash on Thursday. The Cougars defeated Rutgers 49-14 on Saturday to remain unbeaten in the league along with No. 22 Central Florida, who they visit Nov. 9 before a trip to Louisville for a showdown with the No. 17 Cardinals.

The Bulls will test Houston’s high-octane offense, but have not scored an offensive touchdown in a school-record 12 straight quarters despite winning two of three. Freshman Mike White is expected to make his first career start, the fourth different quarterback to do so for South Florida. Freshman quarterback John O’Korn leads a Cougars offense that has averaged 42 points and almost 500 yards and Houston’s defense leads the nation in takeaways with 27.

LINE: Houston has seen a major shift in the line, up to a 17 1/2-point favorite after opening at 14. The over-under is set at 53.5.
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Bulls are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 contests after scoring 20 or fewer points in their previous game.
* Cougars are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS win.
* Under is 7-1-1 in South Florida's last nine games against teams with winning records.

UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans (-3, 59.5)

The host Trojans carry a three-game winning streak into Thursday night's showdown with the Warhawks. Senior Troy quarterback Corey Robinson leads a top-25 pass attack, having racked up 2,195 yards and 16 touchdowns through the Trojans' first eight games. They'll be in tough against a Louisiana-Monroe team that followed up a narrow victory at Texas State with a 38-10 drubbing of Georgia State.

Robinson is dominating the Sun Belt Conference to date, leading the way in passing yardage, TDs and completion percentage (70.4). The Warhawks haven't had nearly the same level of success from quarterback Kolton Browning, though the senior did throw four touchdown passes against Georgia State after missing the previous two games with a torn quad muscle many thought would sideline him for the season.

LINE: Troy has held steady as a three-point favorite. The over/under has risen from 58 1/2 to 59 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies and wind blowing north across the length of the field at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Warhawks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games on turf.
* Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 October games.
* Over is 7-0 in Troy's last seven home games.

Rice Owls at North Texas Mean Green (-4.5, 52.5)

The visiting Owls bring one of the nation's most relentless rush attacks into Apogee Stadium for a date with Conference USA-rival North Texas. Senior running back Charles Ross leads the conference in yards per game (116.2) and is tied for first in touchdowns (six), and has racked up 319 yards and two scores in consecutive wins over New Mexico State and UTEP.

The Mean Green boast the stingiest defense in the conference, allowing just over 20 points per game. North Texas has been particularly difficult to run against, limiting teams to 125.8 yards on the ground - the third-best mark in C-USA. The Mean Green also have a robust passing offense, averaging the third-most yards through the air in the conference (258.9) thanks to the exploits of senior QB Derek Thompson (1,980 yards, 11 TDs).

LINE: North Texas opened as a three-point favorite, but the line has since risen to 4 1/2. The over/under has jumped a half-point to 52 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 10 mph.
TRENDS:

* Owls are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 9-1 in North Texas' last 10 games on Fieldturf.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Washington State Cougars (+11.5, 71.5)

Arizona State can take another step toward being the South Division representative in the Pac-12 title game when it visits pass-happy Washington State on Saturday. The Sun Devils hold a one-game lead over three teams in the division race and are averaging 56.3 points in three conference victories. Ironically, the Cougars have allowed an average of 56.3 in their three Pac-12 defeats,

Washington State isn’t even attempting to establish a running game as Halliday is being asked to air it out. The junior set school and conference records with 557 passing yards against the Ducks but was also picked off four times. Arizona State has a versatile attack with senior running back Marion Grice leading the nation with 18 total touchdowns.

LINE: Washington State opened as a 13 1/2-point underdog, but the line has dropped to 11 1/2. The over/under has risen a point to 71 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the southwest at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
* Over is 17-4 in Arizona State's last 21 games following an ATS win.

NCAAF Week 10

6-1 Houston is 7-0 vs spread; four of its five I-A wins came on road- its home win was 25-15 (-7) over Memphis. Cougars bounced back from first loss and waxed Rutgers in Garden State last week, 49-14 (+7)- they scored 95 points in last two games, and they were underdog both games. USF is 2-5 with all five losses by 15+; they covered both games as road dog this year, are 16-8 as road dogs since '05. Bulls' problem is offense; they haven't gazined 300+ yards yet vs a I-A team and completed 50%+ of passes in only one of seven games. AAC home favorites are 3-6 vs spread so far in conference play this season. Teams last met in '02.

6-2 Rice's only two losses are to A&M/Houston, who have a combined 12-3 record; Owls (+3) snuck out 32-31 win at North Texas in '10, after waxing Mean Green 77-20 in '08. This is 4th road game in five weeks for Rice squad that won last four games, and is already bowl eligible- they've scored 45 points in each of last two games. UNT won last three games, is 5-3 and becomes bowl eligible with win; they're 3-0 at home, including giving Ball State its only loss of year in 34-27 comeback win in Denton. Mean Green is 5-1 as home favorite under McCarney. C-USA home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in league play this year.

Underdogs covered six of last eight Troy-ULM games; Monroe is 1-4 in last five visits here, losing by 21-17-5-4 points. Losing side scored 26+ points in six of Troy's seven I-A games; they've won last three games in spite of allowing 29 ppg. Since 2010, Trojans are 2-12 as home favorites, 0-2 this year- they beat UAB by 3 in OT, USA 34-33 in only two lined home games. ULM is 4-4 but all four of its losses are by 17+ points- they're 2-2 as road dogs this year, 7-5 in last 12 such games. Home faves are 2-5 vs spread in conference games this year. Troy allowed average of 413.3 passing yards per game in their last three games.

Arizona State won eight of last nine games vs Washington State, winning five of last seven visits here- they crushed Wazzu 46-7 (-22) LY, in first matchup between Graham-Leach as Pac-12 rivals. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games. ASU is 5-0 at home, but lost 42-28 at Stanford (+6.5) in only true road game and also lost 37-34 (-6) to Notre Dame on neutral field in Dallas. Sun Devils scored 53+ points in four of their five wins, were held to 50-65 rushing yards in two losses. Wazzu lost three of last four games, allowing 52+ points in three losses, giving up an average of 451 passing yards. Pac-12 home underdogs are 1-8 vs spread in conference play.

Armadillosports.com

Sun Devils, Cougars meet up
By Sportsbook.ag

ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (5-2) at WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS (4-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona State -11.5 & 72.5
Opening Line & Total: Sun Devils -12.5 & 73

Arizona State looks to continue its offensive dominance this season and defeat Washington State, losers of the past two contests, on Thursday night.

The Sun Devils are now 3-1 in conference play due to their tremendous offensive output this year (509.1 total YPG) with their only loss coming on the road against a stout Stanford team, ranked fifth in the nation at that time. The Cougars have done well this year against lesser opponents, but have struggled mightily when facing top offenses. In their last game, Arizona State won its second straight Pac-12 contest at home, beating Washington 53-24 and scored 50+ points for the fourth time this season. Washington State had a very tough matchup in its last game when they traveled to Eugene and were beat up on by Oregon, 62-38, but did cover the enormous 40-point spread.

The Sun Devils have won 12 of the 19 games between these two teams since 1992 (10-8 ATS) including a 46-7 blowout in the Valley of the Sun last season. In that game, the Cougars managed only one rushing yard and gave up 561 yards of offense to Arizona State. Although the Sun Devils have done well straight up against Washington State in recent history, they are only 1-5 ATS in their past six games when traveling to the Cougars Stadium.

The Arizona State offense has been clicking on all cylinders this season and is now ranked 14th in the nation in total yards. Leading the team this year is QB Taylor Kelly, who after having a successful first year as a starter in 2012, has continued his success this season. With 2,236 yards passing, 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2013, Kelly has proven that ASU has what it takes to hang with the elite Pac-12 clubs. Kelly has also added 249 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 57 attempts (4.4 YPC). The seven turnovers by Kelly is concerning, and he has thrown multiple interceptions in each loss for the Sun Devils. WR Jaelen Strong has been having one of the best starts in Arizona State history at the position and has also been gaining national attention. Strong has 45 catches this year for 685 yards (15.2 avg.) with four touchdowns. He has been very consistent for the better part of the season, having 100+ yards in five straight games during the middle part of the season.

HB Marion Grice has also been an enormous piece of the offense, both in the run game and pass game. Grice has carried the ball 111 times this year for 553 yards (5.0 YPC) and also has 302 receiving yards on 33 catches (9.2 avg.). He has made easy work of getting into the end zone, with 18 total touchdowns (12 rushing) on the year. While the ASU defense has not been great this season, it does boast one of the top defensive tackles in the country in Will Sutton (22 tackles, two sacks), who is moving up draft boards and giving opposing offenses headaches.

The Cougars sling the ball all over the field and have 470 pass attempts to only 145 carries on the season. As a result, QB Connor Halliday is ranked third in the nation in passing yards with 2,798. He has also added 18 touchdowns and an alarmingly high 17 interceptions. In the team's last game against Oregon, Halliday had a season-high 557 yards passing and 89 attempts, but also threw four interceptions. There are nine different receivers on the team that have 200+ receiving yards and eight different players have caught a touchdown.

WR Gabe Marks leads all Cougars receivers with 59 catches for 655 yards and five touchdowns. The HBs on Washington State have contributed only 58.4 yards on the ground per game this season (123rd in nation), but do have eight rushing touchdowns, including six from HB Jeremiah Laufasa. Over the Cougars' four wins this season, their defense has allowed only 9.8 points per game. Unfortunately, in Washington State's four losses, they have allowed a whopping 50.0 points per game.

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