College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, October 5th, 2017

LOUISVILLE (4 - 1) at NC STATE (4 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
LOUISVILLE is 2-0 straight up against NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LOUISVILLE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina State
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

LOUISVILLE @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Louisville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
North Carolina State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Louisville

NCAAF Week 6

Louisville is 3-0 vs NC State in ACC play, winning by 12-7-41 points; they won 20-13 (+3.5) in their last visit to Raleigh, in 2015. Cardinals (-19.5) crushed State 54-13 LY, outgaining Wolfpack 553-250; they’re 4-1 this year, winning 47-35 in Chapel Hill in their only road game so far- they beat Purdue 35-28 in Indy. Louisville is 8-5 as a road favorite under Petrino. NC State won its last four games, with a win at Florida State in there; Wolfpack is 3-7 as a home underdog under Doeren. ACC home underdogs are 1-5 vs spread so far this season.

Armadillosports.com

Louisville at N.C. State
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The ACC was on center stage last weekend with Clemson holding off Virginia Tech in a possible preview of December’s championship game. The Tigers lead the pack, but N.C. State and Louisville are formidable threats in the Atlantic division as well. The Wolfpack will get a shot at Clemson in November with the Cardinals already losing in their opportunity to take out the champions. This week’s Thursday night game will determine whether or not N.C. State could emerge as a serious contender in the division race in what looks like a breakthrough season in Raleigh.

Matchup: Louisville Cardinals at N.C. State Wolfpack
Venue: At Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, Oct. 5, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Louisville -3½, Over/Under 65½
Last Meeting: 2016, at Louisville (-18½) 54, N.C. State 13

Louisville has been in the sports news cycle a lot in the last week, but the football program hasn’t been a part of that, quietly getting back-to-back blowout wins at home following the lopsided loss to Clemson in mid-September. While the Cardinals will need a lot of help to get back in the ACC Atlantic race, they could still surpass last season’s great success and reach a major bowl game for the first time since the 2012 Sugar Bowl win.

While Louisville reached as high as #3 in the national polls for three different weeks in the 2016-17 season, the final season tally was just 9-4. Despite featuring the Heisman Trophy winner, the Cardinals closed the season with losses against Houston, Kentucky, and then had a very poor showing in the Citrus Bowl with a 29-9 loss to LSU.

Louisville went 7-1 in ACC play last season and October will feature three difficult road games with games at Florida State and Wake Forest to close the month after next week’s homecoming game with Boston College. The Cardinals have decent wins over Purdue and North Carolina on the resume, but didn’t pass the eye-test in a 47-21 loss hosting Clemson, unable to match the very competitive game Louisville had with the eventual national champions last season.

Lamar Jackson has a chance to be a repeat Heisman winner as he has thrown for 13 touchdowns while rushing for another five after combining to score 51 touchdowns last season. His completion rate in the passing game and his yards per attempt are both up dramatically compared with his numbers last season and he is also rushing at 6.1 yards per carry to even best last season’s pace. Jaylen Smith is one of the top receivers in the ACC with 22 catches already this season and the Cardinals are likely to top last season’s passing numbers as they could be involved in some high scoring shootouts as they were in the first two weeks with Purdue and North Carolina.

The Louisville defense has similar numbers to last season on the surface allowing 24.6 points per game and 318 yards per game for an almost identical pace. The Cardinals have been excellent against the run under Bobby Petrino, allowing 3.3 yards per rush or less in each of the last three seasons, including surrendering just 3.1 yards per rush last season and so far in 2017. The problem is those numbers feature the blowout wins the past two weeks vs. Kent State and FCS Murray State, and seven Power Five foes remain on the schedule as the defensive figures are likely to climb upward by season’s end.

It was a bit odd watching Sunday Night NFL football last week and seeing Jacoby Brissett and Russell Wilson face off as opposing quarterbacks, both who recently played the bulk of their college snaps at N.C. State. Despite having two NFL quarterbacks in the last decade, N.C. State has a nine-win 2010 season as its high watermark. In his fifth season in Raleigh, Dave Doeren certainly was a candidate to be on the hot seat despite three straight bowl appearances as the program has failed to take the next step.

Many hyped the Wolfpack this summer as a serious threat for a breakthrough season with 17 starters back, an experienced quarterback, and a favorable schedule ahead. N.C. State promptly lost the opener to South Carolina, admittedly with some tough breaks as the Wolfpack had a 504-246 edge in total yards despite the 35-28 loss in Charlotte. N.C. State has rebounded with four straight wins, including an upset at Florida State but the season still hangs in the balance.

This game is followed by road games at Pittsburgh and at Notre Dame before an ambitious homecoming date with Clemson in early November. If N.C. State wins out, they’ll climb on the national radar as a New Year’s Day bowl candidate, but they are likely be dogged in three of the next four games counting this week and could wind up 5-4 heading into the final three contests, heading towards another uninspiring spot in a minor bowl game.

Boise State transfer quarterback Ryan Finley has great numbers in his second season with N.C. State, completing nearly 72 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns against no interceptions. Junior Nyheim Hines has led the team in rushing with more than 400 yards while Jaylen Samuels has 43 catches already, third nationally, though mostly in short gains.

N.C. State has allowed over 23 points per game this season including a FCS win over Furman as the defense has marginal numbers, allowing 370 yards per game for a slight decline compared with the past two seasons. The Wolfpack are 14th nationally in allowing just 2.9 yards per rush as they look likely to dare Jackson to beat them through the air. That was what happened last season and the Heisman winner had one his biggest passing games of the season with 355 yards.

Big plays could decide this game as there has been a non-offensive score in every Louisville game with the Cardinals scoring two but allowing three in five games. Allowing an opening kickoff return touchdown doomed N.C. State in the opening loss as well. N.C. State is +6 in turnovers this season while Louisville is -2 and one big play could be the difference in this closely-lined division battle.

Last Season: N.C. State started 4-1 last season with an upset loss at East Carolina, but picked up a notable win over Notre Dame. In mid-October, they took undefeated and #3 ranked Clemson to overtime, losing 24-17 and then had to go to Louisville for a second straight major road test. Louisville was up 17-0 in the first quarter and 44-0 by halftime in a complete blowout. N.C. State scored twice in the third quarter to save some face, but the game was never in doubt. The 2015 meeting in Raleigh featured a 20-13 win for Louisville with modest production on both sides.

Historical Trends:

Louisville is 3-0 S/U (2-1 ATS) the past three years in this series as ACC foes.

These teams previously met in bowl action in 2011 with N.C. State winning 31-24 in the Belk Bowl.

Since Petrino’s return to Louisville in 2014 the Cardinals are 12-6 S/U and 10-7-1 ATS on the road, going 7-5-1 ATS as a road favorite.

N.C. State is 41-28-1 ATS as a home underdog going back to 1984 but that track record hasn’t held up under Doeren.

Since taking over in 2013, N.C. State is 0-10 S/U and 3-7 ATS in the home underdog role.

N.C. State has actually lost S/U in at least three home games in each of the previous four seasons to add to the frustration of the fan base, with Doeren now 17-14 S/U and 13-18 ATS at Carter-Finley Stadium.

N.C. State has gone 11-14 ATS as an underdog in any venue since 2013 though the two biggest outright upsets have occurred in the last two opportunities, beating North Carolina (+9½) in Chapel Hill last November and beating Florida State (+11) in Tallahassee two weeks ago.

Louisville is just 15-17-1 ATS when favored since 2014 including going 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 instances, suffering two upset losses.

NC State hosts Louisville Thursday
By: StatFox.com

#24 North Carolina State will be hoping to pull off a Thursday night upset over Lamar Jackson and #17 Louisville.

Louisville is coming off of a 55-10 victory over Murray State last week, but the team was favored by 49.5 in that one. The Cardinals have now won two straight games, but they have also failed to cover in three straight. They have not yet played up to the level that many expected them to, but all would be forgotten with a victory over this Wolfpack team here. NC State is now ranked in the AP Poll, which is a change for this program when looking at the past few years. The Wolfpack are out to prove that they are legit, but they can only do that by defeating the Cardinals in this one. They were relatively unimpressive in a 33-25 victory over Syracuse last week and their 27-21 win against the Seminoles on Sep. 23 is looking weaker now than it did at the time. That means that the team must show it can beat another elite program, especially after losing to a mediocre South Carolina team in the opening week of the season. It’s worth noting that the Cardinals have won three straight in this head-to-head series. Also trending in Louisville’s favor is the fact that NC State is 40-60 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992. The Wolfpack are, however, an impressive 30-13 ATS off two or more consecutive Unders since then.

The Cardinals are going to be hungry for a victory over a ranked team on Thursday, as they did not show up when they faced their only other ranked foe this season. That was a blowout loss to Clemson, and this game shouldn’t be quite as tough for Louisville. Having said that, the team is going to need a huge performance from QB Lamar Jackson (1,636 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT) in order to win this game. Jackson threw for 249 yards with three touchdowns and no picks against Murray State last week, and he also added 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground. His ability to run the ball has always separated him as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, but he has also made huge improvements as a passer this season. Jackson had never had a completion % of 60.0 in his college career, but he is at 64.0 thus far. He’ll need to be efficient here as well or NC State will likely win this one. On defense, the Cardinals will be facing a rather balanced Wolfpack attack. The Cardinals will, however, need to focus on getting some pressure on Ryan Finley. They’ll also need to make sure they have their eyes on Jaylen Samuels at all times.

QB Ryan Finley (1,403 yards, 9 TD, 0 INT) started his career at Boise State, but he is now at NC State and he has really fit in well here. Finley is off to a great start this season, as he has not yet thrown a pick and the Wolfpack have been winning games. He’ll be asked to make some more plays in this game than usual, but he should be up to the task here. Finley played well in the win over Florida State, throwing for 230 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. That was his biggest test of the year, but this one should be even tougher. One thing he’ll definitely look to do is find TE Jaylen Samuels (43 rec, 321 yards, 3 TD) for some easy completions. Last week, Samuels had five receptions for 37 yards and also rushed nine times for 74 yards and a score. He’s one of the only tight ends that you’ll ever see running the football, but he’s good at it and it throws opposing defenses off. The Wolfpack will also run the ball frequently with RB Nyheim Hines (411 yards, 3 TD). Hines rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown against Syracuse and will need to have at least 80 or so here. And on defense, the entire gameplan will be based on stopping Jackson. The team should be focused on keeping him in the pocket, as he is far too dangerous to stop when on the move.

Thursday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Louisville at NC State
Covers.com

Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack (+3, 65.5)

North Carolina State served notice it was a team to be reckoned with in late September when it toppled then-No. 11 Florida State in Tallahassee, and coach Dave Doeren's squad will get another chance to prove it has some staying power less than two weeks later. The 24th-ranked Wolfpack eye their first 3-0 start in ACC play since 2002 and a fifth straight victory overall Thursday when they host No. 17 Louisville.

"We're a lot more mature than we have been in the past. A lot of guys in the past would've been like 'Oh we beat the (No. 11) team so we don't have to come out as hard this week.' We just all executed exactly what we needed to do," N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb told reporters following last weekend's 33-25 win over Syracuse. The victory gave the Wolfpack their first 2-0 start in the conference since 2006, leaving them as only one of two schools (Clemson) without a blemish in the ACC's Atlantic Division. In case his team needs any additional motivation on a short week, Doeren must only remind the Wolfpack of last season's 54-13 rout in which Louisville raced out to a 44-0 halftime advantage. The Cardinals have outscored a pair of overmatched opponents (Kent State and FCS foe Murray State) 97-13 since their demoralizing 47-21 setback to No. 2 Clemson on Sept. 16 and have won six of the seven meetings versus N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number dropped slightly to 3 on Thursday morning. The total hit the betting boards at 62 and jumped all of the way up to 65.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Louisville - OL C. Bentley (Questionable, Concussion), RB C. Wilson (Questionable, Knee), DL D. Bailey (Questionable, Ankle), WR J. Smith (Out Indefinitely, Wrist), RB J. Smith (Out For Season, Toe), CB J. Alexander (Out Indefinitely, Leg), WR D. Peete (Out For Season, Knee), RB D. Williams (Out For Season, Knee).

NC State - WR K. Harmon (Probable, Shoulder), S D. Wright (Probable, Groin), LB R. Nicholson (Questionable, Groin), DE D. Holden (Questionable, Upper Body), RB D. Nichols (Out For Season, Knee), DT D. Johnson (Out For Season, Lower Body), RB M. Braxton (Out For Season, Lower Body), CB J. Valdez (Out For Season, Knee), DB F. Phillips Jr. (Out For Season, Achilles), DB T. Meadows (Out Indefinitely, Personal), LB I. Moore (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), RB E. Collins (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), DE X. Lyas (Out Indefinitely, Suspension).

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who is 13 yards away from becoming the seventh player in conference history to reach 10,000 total career yards, posted his program-best 16th 100-yard rushing game while also breaking Chris Redman's school mark (538) for career scoring (554) last time out. Dez Fitzpatrick finished with two touchdowns on four catches against Murray State and has scored six times on only 16 receptions, leaving him one TD catch shy of Arnold Jackson (1997) and Mario Urrutia (2005) for the most by a freshman receiver in school history. Preseason All-American cornerback Jaire Alexander, who suffered a knee injury in the season opener, practiced last week and is day-to-day, according to coach Bobby Petrino.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Junior quarterback Ryan Finley owns the longest active streak of consecutive attempts without an interception at 257, ranks 23rd in the nation in passing yards per game (280.6) and ninth in FBS in completion percentage (ACC-high 71.9). Nyheim Hines, a 5-9, 197-pound track All-American, has transitioned smoothly to running back after being used as a flex player in his first two seasons and ranks fifth in the conference in rushing (411 yards) after setting a career high in rushing yards in each of the last three weeks. Chubb leads the conference with league-best 12 tackles for loss after 3.5 last week, increasing his career total to 46 and moving him into second place in school history behind Mario Williams (55.5).

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 10-3 in Cardinals last 13 conference games.
* Under is 16-1-1 in Wolfpack last 18 Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Cardinals are getting 68 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 60 percent of the totals wagers.