BYU (4 - 1) at UCF (2 - 2) - 10/9/2014, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
BYU vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
BYU is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games
BYU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 5 games at home
Central Florida is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
BYU at Central Florida
BYU: 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a game at home
Central Florida: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a road win
BYU at Central Florida
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
After a wild college football weekend with several big chips in the national picture falling, the next college football weekend kicks off with a non-conference matchup featuring one the formerly ranked teams coming off a loss. BYU visits Central Florida in a matchup of last season’s top team outside of the power 5 conferences against what had looked like one of the top non-power 5 conference teams in 2014. Here is a look at both teams and what lies ahead Thursday night.
Matchup: BYU Cougars at Central Florida Knights
Venue: Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Date: Thursday, October 9, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: UCF -3
Last Meeting: 2011, BYU (-1.5) 24-17 at BYU
BYU climbed up to #18 in polls with a 4-0 start that featured a blowout win at Texas as well as wins over Houston and Virginia. Talk of an undefeated season was growing and the Cougars could have at least built a case to be considered for the four team national playoff by the end of the season had there been few other remaining undefeated teams left. At the very least major bowl consideration was a possibility. All that talk went up in smoke last Friday night with BYU losing at home to Utah State.
The Aggies and Cougars have a longstanding rivalry that has mainly been dominated by BYU and it certainly has seemed like a series that has meant more to Utah State in recent years with several competitive efforts and a big upset win in 2010. BYU took a 14-7 lead Friday night in the second quarter but Utah State was able to answer and then BYU fumbled on the next kickoff. It took Utah State just one play to go up 21-14 and then disaster struck for the Cougars with junior quarterback Taysom Hill breaking his leg.
Hill had huge numbers last season and he starting to generate some buzz in the Heisman Trophy race this season, with strong passing and rushing numbers for the Cougars, accounting for six passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns and then adding one each before his injury on Friday. A case could be made that Hill was as important to BYU as just about any player to any team in the nation. For BYU as an independent it may be difficult to maintain top level focus the rest of the season. The Cougars are essentially locked into the Miami Beach Bowl in December as they will no longer be in play for a major bowl spot.
The challenge has been different for Central Florida this season, as the Knights reached the top of the mountain so to speak last season, winning the American Athletic Conference title and earning a spot in the Fiesta Bowl where they defeated Baylor as a heavy underdog. The AAC no longer is guaranteed a major bowl spot and the Knights lost a great deal of key players from last year’s team, most notably #3 draft pick Blake Bortles. Still most expect Central Florida to be a player in the AAC race although the season opened with consecutive losses.
Central Florida opened the season in Ireland, playing poorly most of the way against Penn State before a furious late rally behind back-up quarterback Justin Holman, only to lose on a last second kick. Two weeks later the Knights suffered a turnover-filled loss to Missouri leaving more questions. The Knights have evened its record to 2-2, although last week the offense against struggled in stealing a win at Houston last Thursday, a game it looked like the Knights would give away late as well before catching a break with a fumble on what would have been the go-ahead touchdown.
The statistics in this matchup overwhelmingly favor BYU but the Cougars were not the same team with senior Christian Stewart at quarterback in the second half last week. He completed just 10 of 29 passes with three interceptions and he is not the threat on the ground that Hill was. With some time to make adjustments BYU could have better results but the game plan will have to change and this could be a deflated team emotionally moving forward.
Central Florida is posting just 281 yards per game this season with great struggles in the running game, averaging just 2.8 yards per rush. BYU rushes for 215 yards per game and while Hill has a huge impact on those numbers the Cougars could be ground oriented moving forward if they do not trust Stewart in the passing game. Both BYU and Central Florida have featured fantastic run defenses this season among the national leaders in both yards per carry allowed and yards per game allowed on the ground. BYU’s defense may also be better than the numbers look as the Cougars have played with substantial leads in several games this season.
Central Florida is 1-0 in AAC play and in the big picture this is not an overly meaningful game for the team as the conference title will still be the goal for the team and conference games should carry more weight. For BYU finding motivation without its star player and with limited incentive with the undefeated run ending could be a challenge. BYU is facing long travel for this early week game as well. This is a primetime game that features two of the more prominent teams from outside the major conferences but at this point the game lacks the national impact that it looked like it might have had before the season started. That said the winner would still have a chance to be in the conversation for the non-power 5 major bowl slot, but that would probably require winning out the rest of the way.
BYU Historical Trends: The Utah State rivalry has taken a bit of a toll on BYU as the Cougars are just 4-9 ATS following up that game since 1996. BYU is 2-0 ATS on the road this season but the Cougars were 1-5 ATS last season on the road. BYU is 28-17-1 ATS as a single-digit road underdog going back to 1982 and BYU is 12-3 ATS the last 15 games as an underdog of 14 or fewer points, though all three of the misses came last season.
Central Florida Historical Trends: Central Florida has been a strong home team under George O’Leary going 42-22 S/U and 36-24-1 ATS since 2004. Since 2009 UCF is 28-6 S/U at home, going 21-11-1 ATS. UCF is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite since 2010 and 9-6-1 as a single-digit home favorite since 2005.
BYU vs. UCF Betting Preview and Pick
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com
The BYU Cougars are hurting in more ways than one as they visit the UCF Knights on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in Orlando, Florida. This is the start of Week 7 of the college football season.
BYU saw its national titles hopes dashed last Friday with a 35-20 home loss to Utah State as 21-point favorites. Injury was added to insult with junior quarterback Taysom Hill breaking his leg and going out for the season. There will be an emotional hurdle to overcome in this game.
The Line: UCF -3.5, Total: 47
Line movement: The Wynn opened the Knights at -3.5 on Sunday, quickly dropped them to -3, but was back up to -3.5 on Monday. A day before the game, BYU +3.5 and UCF -3 could both be found around Las Vegas. For updated spreads and totals, visit our live odds page .
Trends that matter: BYU is 0-3 ATS in its last three games after starting 2-0 ATS.
BYU is 17-12-1 ATS after a SU loss since Bronco Mendenhall's tenure started in 2005.
UCF is 5-0 ATS in its last five Thursday games.
The UNDER is 3-0 in UCF’s last three games and 4-0 in its last four at home.
The UNDER is 4-1 in BYU's last four road games.
Stewart taking control under center: BYU (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) will turn to senior backup quarterback Christian Stewart. He came in during the second quarter last game and went 10-of-29 for 172 yards and three picks. Stewart seems confident in his abilities, but is a major drop-off from the Heisman candidate Hill (975 passing yards, 463 rushing).
The Cougars will likely look to feature running back Jamaal Williams (395 yards, 5.1 ypc) to take some pressure off Stewart. Their 61st-ranked defense (382.6 YPG) also needs to play better after allowing a much-higher 488 ypg the last two games.
UCF needs to pick up the offense: UCF (2-2 SU and ATS) evened its record last Thursday with a 17-12 win at Houston as 2.5-point dogs. Three Houston turnovers were the difference as the Knights were outgained in total yards (331-228). This is only their second true home game of the year; they played Penn State in Dublin to open the season.
UCF’s offense (281 YPG, ranked 119th) is having trouble both passing and rushing the ball. Sophomore quarterback Justin Holman has four touchdowns and no picks the last two games, but is only averaging 123 ypg through the air. More offense will likely be needed in this game even with Hill out for BYU.
Injuries that matter: BYU’s Hill (leg) is out. Linebacker Alani Fua, safety Dallin Leavitt and offensive lineman Brayden Kearsley are all questionable.
Weather: The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 70s. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.
The Linemakers lean: Let's take a look at the lines against a common opponent -- Houston -- to help us determine if there's been an overreaction to Hill's absence: BYU was a 17-point home favorite over Houston, UCF was a 2-point road dog against them. After factoring in home field, those numbers equate to about a 12-point difference between these Thursday night combatants. The drop-off from Hill to Stewart is about 7 points, so we're still looking at a 5-point ratings advantage for BYU. Yet, the Cougars are a dog here.
Statistically, BYU's defense is No. 11 against the run, and UCF QB Justin Holman isn't scaring anyone. We'll take BYU as the underdog here.
In terms of the total, we'll look for BYU to keep it conservative and for UCF to have trouble moving the ball. Also, the Cougars trend UNDER on the road, while the Knights trend OVER at home. UNDER 47 is the play.
NCAAF Week 7
BYU was off to 4-0 start but lost QB Hill (broken leg) for season in last week's home loss to Utah State; Cougars are 6-1 as road underdogs since 2011- they beat Central Florida 24-17 (-2) at home in 2011, in game they were outgained 399-260. BYU won games at UConn/Texas; they gave up 315+ passing yards in each of last three games. UCF is 18-11 in last 29 games as home favorites; they got first I-A win last week at Houston, as Cougars' QB fumbled on 1-yard line in last minute, in 17-12 game.
Armadillosports.com
Game of the Day: BYU at Central Florida
By Covers.com
BYU Cougars at Central Florida Knights (-3.5, 47.5)
Brigham Young’s hopes of an undefeated season and a major bowl bid likely came crashing down about the same time it lost Heisman Trophy hopeful Taysom Hill for the season last weekend. The Cougars look to rally around replacement Christian Stewart on Thursday at Central Florida as they try to rebound from their first loss. Hill, who had BYU off to its best start since 2008, was responsible for 326 yards of total offense per game and accounted for 13 total touchdowns through four contests.
However, Hill fractured his left leg late in the first half of the Cougars’ 35-20 home loss to Utah State, which limited a Stewart-led offense to two second-half field goals and intercepted him three times. "It was a tough situation (to see) your best friend coming off the field hurt. ... It's a terrible thing that Taysom went down, but if there's a guy that's ready to step up, it's me," Stewart told reporters after the loss. The Knights opened up American Athletic Conference play last Thursday with a 17-12 win at Houston as safety Brandon Alexander forced a game-saving fumble at the goal line with 24 seconds left to preserve the victory.
LINE HISTORY: The Knights opened as 3-point home faves but that has moved to -3.5. The total has held at 47.5.
INJURY REPORT: BYU - QB Taysom Hill (Out for season, leg).
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The broken leg suffered by star QB Taysom Hill in last week’s stunning loss to Utah State is a potentially devastating blow for the Cougars, who has vision set on crashing the Power Five party. Expect the Cougars to rally around new QB Christian Stewart in his first start this Thursday. On the flip side, the Knights have been out gained in all three games versus fellow FBS foes this season despite a 2-1 record in those contests." Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.
ABOUT BRIGHAM YOUNG (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Jamaal Williams became the first player other than Hill to pace BYU’s ground attack, rushing for 99 yards last week to move into sole possession of eighth place on the school’s all-time list (2,403). Mitch Mathews (career-high 135 yards) and Jordan Leslie (career-high 117) each exceeded 100 yards receiving against Utah State, becoming the first pair of BYU receivers to do so in the same game since Austin Collie and Michael Reed accomplished the feat in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl. BYU recorded a season-high four giveaways against the Aggies and has committed multiple turnovers in four of its five games.
ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): J.J. Worton managed only one catch for nine yards versus Houston, but it was enough for him to become the 10th Knight to amass over 2,000 career receiving yards. Thomas Niles has posted a sack in each of Central Florida’s last five games and can become the first player in school history to notch one in six straight with another against BYU. In large part due to Niles and Jaryl Mamea, who became the 20th Central Florida player to register three sacks in a game last weekend, the Knights have collected 11 of their 14 sacks this season over the last two contests.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-0 in Cougar's last five Thursday games.
* Cougars are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Under is 4-1 in Knights last five home games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: According to Covers Consensus, 52 percent of bettors are supporting the UCF Knights.