College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 15th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
HOUSTON (2 - 0) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0) - 9/15/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
Houston at Cincinnati
Houston: 8-1 ATS in road lined games
Cincinnati: 3-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70
College Football Week 3
Houston QB Ward (shoulder) sat out last week’s cakewalk; he is expected back here. Cougars lost five of its last six vs Cincinnati, losing last four visits here (0-3-1 vs spread) by average score of 44-30. Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine series games. This figures to be Houston’s toughest game until Nov 19 game vs Louisville. Bearcats had 262 rushing yards in 38-20 win LW at Purdue, but Boilers also threw for 401 yards, red flag vs Ward. Cincy was +5 in TOs last week.
Armadillosports.com
Houston at Cincinnati
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
This week’s Thursday night game puts the American Athletic Conference in the spotlight in a rematch of one of the best games from the conference race last season.
Cincinnati has been consistently successful in the last decade but this year Houston is the team to watch after turning in a big opening week victory and currently sitting at #6 in the AP Poll.
Here is a preview of the Thursday night showcase game between Houston and Cincinnati.
Match-up: Houston Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats
Venue: Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 15, 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Houston -8, Over/Under 64
Last Meeting: 2015, at Houston (-9) 33, Cincinnati 30.
Current head coaches at Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Tennessee had success at Cincinnati before taking higher profile jobs as the program has had just one losing season in the last decade while posting nine or more wins in seven of those seasons. Cincinnati is certainly a program that will be considered in the Big XII expansion and has to be considered one of the top programs outside of the current five major conferences.
Tommy Tuberville had a fairly successful 10-year run at Auburn before leaving after a marginal 2008 season. He coached at Texas Tech for three seasons and then after the 2012 season he made what most considered at best a lateral move to Cincinnati. After a pair of 9-4 seasons the Bearcats slipped to 7-6 last season, falling short of AAC titles the past two seasons after finishing in a three-way tie for the title in 2014.
Hayden Moore filled in successfully as a freshman for Gunner Kiel and he hasn’t surrendered the starting quarterback job leading the Bearcats to a 2-0 start with wins over FCS Tennessee-Martin and a notable win at Purdue last week. An offense that averaged nearly 34 points per game hasn’t been quite as prolific so far this season but Moore has thrown for 510 yards with five touchdowns and senior running back Tion Green has 150 yards on 32 carries so far to lead the offense. All of the top receivers from last season’s squad departed but so far senior Nate Cole has stepped up with 12 catches including three for touchdowns.
Defense is generally the concern for Cincinnati as the Bearcats allowed over 31 points per game last season with particular struggles against the run, allowing 192 yards per game on the ground on nearly 5.0 yards per rush. Cincinnati’s worst losses came against teams that could run, notable against BYU and South Florida in double-digit defeats as well as struggling to contain the run in the matchup with Houston last season.
While last season Cincinnati had three early season losses to fall short of expectations, they went into Houston last November with the Cougars a top 20 team at 8-0 and nearly came away with the upset. Houston took a 30-14 lead in the third quarter with a safety but Cincinnati outscored Houston 16-3 the rest of the way to get within three points and the Bearcats had the ball back near midfield before running out of downs.
Houston had a 589-427 yardage edge but also had three turnovers and very little success running the ball as the Cougars had a 266-66 yardage edge on the ground. Cincinnati also had 11 penalties in the game and a big disadvantage in time of possession.
These teams met in the regular season finale in 2014 with Cincinnati winning 38-31 at home in a win that gave the Bearcats a share of the AAC title. The stakes appear to be much higher for Houston this season, even though this is just the third game of the season.
After going 13-1 last season with a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl the Cougars opened the season on the national radar and with an upset over Oklahoma in the opening week this is a team that continues to climb in the polls and most feel will have a shot to be undefeated.
The opening week win over Oklahoma was at NRG Stadium and despite falling behind early the Cougars rallied to take a lead at the half. The big play in the game was a third quarter return touchdown after a long field goal try for the Sooners that fell just short but Houston had eight more first downs in the game and more yardage as they shut down what was expected to be one of the nation’s top offensive teams. Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. kept up with Baker Mayfield throwing for over 300 yards and the lines on both sides of the ball had strong play.
Last week Ward did not play vs. FCS Lamar with a right shoulder injury as junior Kyle Potsma stepped in admirably as he did last season in a few instances. The running game led the way last week with 381 rushing yards and the defense was dominant in the shutout with just 73 yards allowed. Getting that type of performance will be a great challenge this week as Houston and second year head coach Tom Herman look to continue what they hope will be a special season.
Houston entered the season as the heavy favorite in the AAC West and the leading candidate to return to a major bowl game as the top Group of 5 squad. Those hopes are alive as Houston climbs the polls but down the road a perfect season may still not be enough as the schedule will be quite weak overall. This game projects to be the toughest road game of the season for Houston as the late season test against Louisville will be at home.
While the conversations about whether or not Houston has a chance at the College Football Playoff will be for another day, this Thursday night spotlight game is the matchup most expect to see again in December for the AAC title game. While more may be at stake for the Cougars this is a great opportunity for Cincinnati to get a signature win as well in what could be a bounce-back season for the program after last season’s mediocrity.
Historical Trends:
Last season’s win for Houston was the first in the series since 1999, snapping a five-game winning streak for Cincinnati.
Going back to 1993 Houston is just 3-8 S/U and ATS in this series with all of the S/U wins coming at home.
Six of the last eight meetings between these schools have been decided by seven or fewer points.
Since 1989 Cincinnati is 75-56-1 ATS at home with a 32-18 ATS mark as a home underdog.
Cincinnati was a 7-point favorite hosting this matchup in 2014 and has not been this big of a home underdog since ironically hosting Oklahoma (+14) in a 29-31 loss in 2010.
Going back to November of 2012 Houston is on a 15-1 ATS run as a road team with the only miss being the upset loss at Connecticut last November.
The Cougars are 6-1 S/U and ATS as a road favorite since 2013 and in that time the program has been among the nation’s best ATS performers at 28-14 ATS overall since the start of the 2013 season.