AUBURN (2 - 0) at KANSAS ST (2 - 0) - 9/18/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
AUBURN is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AUBURN is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AUBURN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
AUBURN vs. KANSAS STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Auburn's last 6 games on the road
Auburn is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State's last 7 games
Kansas State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Auburn at Kansas State
Auburn: 9-0 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Kansas State: 47-29 OVER after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Auburn at Kansas State
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
In what will be the last week of mostly non-conference action, the Thursday night college football game this week presents an enticing matchup between Auburn and Kansas State. Gus Malzahn has enjoyed a legendary start to his coaching career while Bill Snyder is one of the all-time greats as two coaches that are tough to go-against, face off to kick off the fourth week of the season.
Match-up: Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas
Date: Thursday, September 18, 2014
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Auburn -8½
Last Meeting: 2007, Auburn (-13½) 24-13 at Auburn
This will be a challenging wagering matchup as both coaches generally receive tremendous respect. Gus Malzahn and Auburn have now covered in 13 consecutive games and in two-plus seasons as a head coach at Arkansas State and now at Auburn, Malzahn is 23-5 S/U and 22-6 ATS. It has not been without some close calls as Auburn had more than a few fortunate wins last season and even the opening win over Arkansas this season featured a misleading 45-21 final as the game was tied at halftime. Many projected a bit of a step-back season for Auburn this year not due to a lack of talent, but due to a daunting schedule that features five challenging road games, with this week’s non-conference game being the first of those big tests.
Kansas State is 2-0 S/U this season but 0-2 ATS, actually needing an incredible comeback in the last game to beat Iowa State on the road. Bill Snyder is one of the most respected head coaches in the business with 180 victories in now 22+ seasons and since he returned to the sidelines in 2009 Kansas State is 43-21 S/U and an impressive 38-24-1 ATS. As an underdog, Snyder and Kansas State are on a 20-8 ATS run since 2009, including going 7-3 ATS as a home underdog. The Kansas State program consistently seems to outperform expectations and seasoned bettors generally need a very good reason to try to beat the Wildcats in a wager.
In an age of college football where most big non-conference matches have been shipped out to NFL stadiums for bigger payouts, this will be a rare chance for a home crowd to help its team spring a major upset. In the new era of the playoff system, the comparisons between conferences will be more important and in many ways this matchup is just as much Big XII vs. SEC as it is Kansas State vs. Auburn.
Many feel that the Big XII is vulnerable to being left out of the equation at the end of the year as it is a very difficult league to navigate undefeated with a nine-game conference schedule where everyone plays everyone and the league lacks a conference championship game for a late boost for the champion. A win by Kansas State here could go a long way for the selection committee at the end of the season, even if it is not Kansas State as the team reaping the benefit. A win by Auburn could help solidify the popular belief that the SEC will deserve two of the four teams in the playoff field.
Kansas State expects a record crowd and while Snyder Stadium is much smaller than most of the SEC venues (around 53,000 will be expected) where Auburn routinely plays, but it is recognized as one of the toughest places to play in the Big XII. Kansas State did lose S/U at home three times last season, but Snyder is 130-31-1 S/U at home since 1990.
It is no secret that for both teams running the ball is the key to success. Auburn has played a little bit tougher schedule through two games and has averaged 6.7 yards per rush while posting 330 yard per game. Kansas State has averaged 5.1 yards per rush for 236 yards per game. Both teams have been stout defensively against the run with Kansas State allowing just 3.0 yards per rush and Auburn allowing only 2.9 yards per rush. Whichever team controls the line of scrimmage and the ground game should emerge victorious.
Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters has already rushed for 193 yards this season after rushing for just 312 yards last season. His passing numbers are on a nearly identical pace to last season as he has completed 61 percent with a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but his numbers were far better against Stephen F. Austin than they were against Iowa State. Malzahn sent a clear message to his team as quarterback Nick Marshall did not play in the first half of the opener for disciplinary reasons, even with Auburn struggling to pull away from Arkansas. Marshall rushed for over 1,000 yards last season and he has just 14 completions so far in 2014 as Auburn has not been in many passing situations.
Kansas State was only a home underdog once last season, hosting Baylor in a game which Kansas State lost by 10 but covered the 17-point underdog spread. Prior to that, the Wildcats had not been a home underdog since 2011 and they are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2011, winning outright three times. Auburn was 2-0 as a road favorite last season winning and covering in that role at Arkansas and at Tennessee last season.
These teams did face off in 2007 to open the season with Auburn winning 23-13 at home, although Kansas State covered the spread just short of two touchdowns. That game featured Ron Prince coaching Kansas State and Tommy Tuberville coaching Auburn in what seems like ancient history. NFL stars Ben Tate and Jordy Nelson matched up for the offenses in that game as well.
NCAAF Week 4
Auburn is 8-2 as a favorite under Malzahn, 2-0 on road; they ran ball for 660 yards in opening wins/covers vs Arkansas/San Jose State. Tigers are 4-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Kansas State has senior QB with 15 starts, only two starters back on OL; Snyder is 10-4 in last 14 games as a home underdog- they held off Iowa State 32-28 in conference opener last game. Auburn has four starters back on OL but start three sophs there. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-6 vs spread, 2-0 on road; Big X underdogs are 3-2, 1-1 at home.
Armadillosports.com
Auburn faces tough road test
By Sportsbook.ag
Auburn Tigers (2-0) at Kansas State Wildcats (2-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Auburn -10, Total: 66
No. 5 Auburn travels to No. 20 Kansas State for a Thursday night showdown as each program attempts to stay undefeated through three games.
The Tigers have opened the season in usual fashion, dominating over their first two contests as they have outscored their opponents 104-34. Their top-10 rushing attack went for an amazing 358 yards (7.2 YPC) in the 59-13 victory over San Jose State as strong 34-point favorites in their last contest. Overall in the first two games, Auburn has scored 12 offensive touchdowns with nine of them coming on the ground.
Kansas State has not been quite as dominant in its two victories, but also favors running the ball over passing, ranking 32nd in the nation at 236.0 rushing YPG. Most recently, the Wildcats pulled out a tight game as 12-point favorites at Iowa State, shutting them out in the second half (12-0) and finishing with a 32-28 win. A score with 68 seconds left was the winning moment as they outgained their opponent 471-319, which included 232 yards (5.7 YPC) on the ground.
These programs have not met since 2007 when Auburn hosted the Wildcats and held serve in its home stadium with a 23-13 victory, but failing to cover the 13.5-point spread. This year’s contest will prove much different since the two teams combined for just 89 yards of rushing and five turnovers in that meeting seven years ago.
Bettors should take notice that the Tigers are an amazing 14-2 ATS in all lined games over the past two seasons, while Kansas State is 65-34 ATS (66%) after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers since 1992.
Auburn star WR Sammie Coates (knee) is the big injury to watch for in this contest, but he is considered probable to play on Thursday. Despite losing stud HB Tre Mason to the NFL, the Tigers have maintained a tremendous ground game that ranks 7th in the FBS with 330 rushing YPG, and they have totaled 544 YPG (16th in nation) and 52.0 PPG (7th in FBS). QB Nick Marshall (151 yards, 1 TD) missed the first half of the opening contest due to suspension and has connected on 56% of his attempts while averaging a meager 6.0 YPA through the air over six quarters since. What he fails to do through the air, he make up for with his legs, as Marshall has rushed for 122 yards (6.4 YPC) and two touchdowns in his first two games, including his103 yards (9.4 YPC) and a score against San Jose State.
He is certainly not the only great runner on the team with senior HB Cameron Artis-Payne (289 yards, 4 TD) joining him in the backfield. Artis-Payne has gone for over 110 yards in each of the team’s contests and made it into the end zone three times in their last victory. HB Corey Grant (176 yards, 1 TD) has also been a vital part of the offense with 10 attempts in each game.
WR D’haquille Williams has been the clear-cut number No. 1 receiver with Sammie Coates down, as he has nine more receptions (13) than any other ball catcher while going for 214 yards (16.5 avg) and a touchdown. The expected return of Coates would be huge, as he had 902 receiving yards (21.5 avg) and seven scores in 2013.
The defense for Auburn has allowed 17.0 PPG and 323.5 YPG to its opponents thus far. LB Cassanova McKinzy (16 tackles, 1 sack) leads a solid linebacker corps which should give any team’s offense trouble. The Kansas State offense basically splits its yardage evenly between passing (239 YPG) and rushing (236 YPG) in dropping 43.5 PPG on opponents so far. QB Jake Waters (462 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) has done plenty through the air in the first two contests, hitting on 61.4% of his passes (8.1 YPA) and getting at least 220 yards in each game. Like Marshall, Waters is a multi-dimensional offensive player and has schooled defenses for 193 yards (5.2 YPC) and four rushing touchdowns thus far.
He has 16 more rushing attempts than the next best running back, HB Charles Jones, who has rumbled for 130 yards (6.2 YPC) and four touchdowns. Six receivers on the Wildcats have between four and seven receptions with WR Tyler Lockett (145 yards, 1 TD) showing through as the best. He is averaging a solid 20.7 yards per reception and is no stranger to the spotlight after a 2013 season in which he tallied 1,262 yards (15.6 avg) and 11 touchdowns.
KSU has allowed only 22.0 PPG and 306.5 YPG in its two wins, but the defense will have a tough task ahead with Auburn. Wildcats star LB Jonathan Truman (15 tackles) hopes to lead his team to an upset.
Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!
Game of the Day: Auburn at Kansas State
By Covers.com
Auburn Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (+8.5, 65.5)
As a member of the Southeastern Conference, Auburn faces plenty of elite opponents - both at home and on the road. However, the Tigers tend to play it safe when it comes to their non-conference schedule, as Thursday's matchup against Kansas State will mark the first time since 2002 that Auburn is playing a true road game against a ranked, non-conference opponent. The fifth-ranked Tigers have put up 104 points through two games thanks to a dominant rushing attack, while the 20th-ranked Wildcats know they need to improve upon their performance in Week 2.
“It’s going to take a heck of a lot of work,” Kansas State quarterback Jake Waters said, “and a heck of a lot of preparation and going out and executing (to beat Auburn). It is going to be a tough game, no matter what. We will be fortunate to come out on top. If we do, it will be a game that puts a stamp on the start of the season, but we have a lot of work still to do.” The Wildcats needed 19 unanswered points to defeat Iowa State 32-28 their last time out, while the Tigers dismantled San Jose State 59-13 but will have their work cut out for them against coach Bill Snyder's crew. "That's one of the toughest places to play," Auburn coach Gus Malzahn said. "They've got an outstanding coach who's a legend. You can just watch them on film and they're very, very good at what they do. ... This will be our first road test. We're going on the road to a top 20 team, and any time you go on the road (against) a top 20, you better have your 'A' game. That's our challenge."
LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 9-point road faves and have been bet as high as -10, but have settled back down below the opening number and are now listed at Auburn -8.5. The Total opened at 66 and is down slightly to 65.5.
INJURY REPORT: Auburn - WR Sammie Coats (questionable Thursday, leg). Kansas State - N/A.
WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with a 17 percent chance of rain and temperatures will be in the mid 70s around kickoff. There will also be an eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from east to west.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Auburn (-23.5) - Kansas State (-14) + home field (-3) = Kansas State (+6.5)
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Auburn is currently a 9-point favorite over home team Kansas State. Despite the fact that they are 'Auburn' and the clear public favorite and that the line moved from 8.5 to 9 this week, I think bettors are still somewhat apprehensive in jumping on No. 5 team in the country in their first road game. Last year they struggled in their first road game against LSU, losing 35-21. We're still going to see 65 to 70 percent of the action come in on Auburn, but that's less than it would have been in year's past." - GTbets Oddsmaker.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "When Auburn meets Kansas State on Thursday night, we'll see two of the best dual threat quarterbacks in the country in Nick Marshall and Jake Waters. Marshall is off to a slow start, with a 56 percent completion rate and only 151 passing yards with one touchdown in two games. Waters on the other hand put up huge numbers against Iowa State last week (239 passing yards, 138 rushing yards, 2 TDs)." - Covers Expert Jesse Schule.
ABOUT AUBURN (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 O/U): The Tigers had 358 rushing yards against San Jose State and rank seventh nationally with 330 per game while running for at least 200 in 13 consecutive contests. Quarterback Nick Marshall has not had to do much through the first two weeks, but he still has guided Auburn to 12 straight games of at least 30 points - a school record. Defensively, the Tigers registered 10 tackles for loss against San Jose State, including three by defensive tackle Montravius Adams.
ABOUT KANSAS STATE (2-0, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Following a 39-point win over Stephen F. Austin in Week 1, the Wildcats needed a second-half rally that included two rushing touchdowns by Waters - who finished with a career-high 138 yards on the ground - to defeat the Cyclones. Charles Jones also ran for a pair of scores as Kansas State recorded its first come-from-behind victory since 2011. The Wildcats continue to receive strong play from senior wideout Tyler Lockett, who racked up 136 receiving yards against Iowa State and needs one more 100-yard effort to break the school record of 10 that he currently shares with Jordy Nelson (2005-07) and Quincy Morgan (1999-2000).
TRENDS:
* Auburn is 11-0 in its last 11 games following an ATS win.
* Kansas State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Auburn's last seven games overall.
* Over is 9-2 in Kansas State's last 11 games following a bye week.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing Auburn at -8.5.
Auburn vs. Kansas State Betting Preview and Pick
By: Michael Robinson
Sportingnews.com
The Auburn Tigers and Kansas State Wildcats kick off Week 4 of the college football season in a Top 25, non-conference battle on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Both teams have been off since September 6.
Bettors are taking note of significant ATS trends.
The Tigers are 2-0 SU and ATS this year and have covered the spread in their last 13 games overall. The only one of those they lost outright was the national title game against Florida State (34-31 as 10.5-point dogs).
Kansas State has been a covering machine at home during coach Bill Snyder’s 22–plus seasons. The record is 88-53 ATS (62.4 percent), although the Wildcats fell short in this year’s opener against Stephen F. Austin (55-16 win as 42-point favorites).
The Line: Auburn -9, Total: 65
Line movement: The Wynn opened SEC Auburn as 8.5-point favorites on Sunday, moved momentarily to -8, but was pushed up to -9 Monday. Spreads of 9.5 have appeared, too, but as of Wednesday morning, most shops were dealing 9, with William Hill at 8.5. For updated lines from around Las Vegas, visit our live odds page.
More trends that matter: The OVER is 9-2 in Auburn’s last 11 games (2-0 this year)....KSU is 39-25-1 as dog since 2009.
Auburn’s running game is explosive: The SEC Tigers are ranked No. 5 in the AP Poll after home wins over Arkansas (45-21 as 17.5-point favorites) and San Jose State (59-13 as 33.5-point favorites). The Arkansas win came with quarterback Nick Marshall sitting out the first half for discipline reasons.
Auburn led the nation in rushing last year (328.3 YPG) and is sixth this season (330 YPG). Cameron Artis-Payne (289 yards, 6.9 ypc) has nicely replaced Tre Mason, and Marshall can take it the distance on every play with the read-option. This is a gigantic challenge for a solid Kansas State run defense (87 YPG, ranked 20th).
Auburn is tied for third in the Don Best/Linemakers Power Ratings.
Wildcats looking for first cover: The AP No. 20 Wildcats (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) are still looking for their first ATS win this year, following the Stephen F. Austin game with a 32-28 win at Iowa State as 12.5-point favorites.
Note that our Power Ratings have Big 12 Kansas State ranked tied for No. 38, 11 points lower than Auburn on a neutral field.
Kansas State has a dual-threat quarterback of its own in senior Jake Waters (462 passing yards, 193 rushing). Auburn has the athletes on defense to contain him running, but can’t forget about receiver Tyler Lockett (145 yards, 1 TD), one of the best in the country at his position.
Injuries that matter: Auburn wide receiver Sammie Coates (leg) is questionable after missing last game. Kansas State has no significant injuries.
Weather: Skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-70s. Visit wunderground.com for the latest forecast.
The Linemakers' lean: Auburn may be better this season than last, but laying this many points in Manhattan in an out-of-conference game on a short week is not something we're interested in. in fact, if the line gets to +10, we're seeing value in K-State as a home dog.
Our play in this game, though, is on the total. These teams are a combined 4-0 to the OVER this season, and in addition to the aforementioned trend with Auburn, the Wildcats are 5-2 O/U over their last seven. Auburn put up 45 points against Arkansas, a better team than K-State, and the Wildcats should be able to score as well. OVER 65 is the play.