College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 19

Clemson at North Carolina State: What Bettors Need to Know
Covers.com

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+13.5, 66.5)

North Carolina State looks to slow down Heisman Trophy candidate Tajh Boyd on Thursday when the Wolfpack host fourth-ranked Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference opener for both teams. Boyd accounted for an ACC-record eight touchdowns in last season’s 62-48 victory over the Wolfpack and the senior quarterback threw for three scores and ran for two more in Clemson's season-opening 38-35 win over Georgia. The Tigers have won eight of the last nine meetings, but were upset during their last visit to Raleigh in 2011.

Clemson lost its second-leading receiver for the season when junior Charone Peake suffered a torn ACL during practice last week, but the Tigers still have plenty of weapons. Senior running back Roderick McDowell is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and junior wide receiver Sammy Watkins had 127 yards receiving and a touchdown against Georgia. “They just score in bunches early in games and go up on people early,” said Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren. “We’ve got to do a great job of trying to stay in the game early.”

LINE: Clemson opened -14 and has been bet down under the key number to -13.5. The total opened at 65.5 and has been moved to 66.5 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s and partly cloudy skies with a 2 percent chance of rain. Winds ESE at 4 mph.

ABOUT CLEMSON (2-0, 1-1 ATS): After opening its season with a 38-35 victory over Georgia, the Tigers routed South Carolina State 52-13 before its bye week. Clemson is averaging 37.7 points since offensive coordinator Chad Morris took over in 2011, and the defense has shown improvement since allowing nearly 600 total yards against the Wolfpack last season. Senior linebacker Spencer Shuey had a team-high 18 tackles against Georgia, and defensive end Vic Beasley added two sacks.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (2-0, 1-1 ATS): The Wolfpack opened with a 40-14 victory over Louisiana Tech before committing four turnovers and 10 penalties in a 23-21 win over Richmond on Sept. 7. Junior defensive end Art Norman was named the ACC defensive lineman of the week after the Richmond game, and senior linebackers Zach Gentry and Robert Caldwell will need to continue their strong play against the explosive Clemson offense. Junior quarterback Pete Thomas has three interceptions and no touchdowns since taking over for Brandon Mitchell, who injured his foot in the season opener.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in North Carolina State.
* Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Doeren is 14-0 at home in two years at Northern Illinois and two games with the Wolfpack.

2. Nine of the last 16 games in the series have been decided by eight points or fewer.

3. Clemson has a 2-9 record in ESPN Thursday night games, but seven of the nine losses have come to Top 25 teams.

NCAAF Week 4

Clemson won eight of last nine games with NC State, but covered only two of last seven and got upset 37-13 (-7.5) in last visit here, though its previous three visits here were wins by 20-22-21 points. Visiting team is 7-1 vs spread in last eight series games. Tigers covered last four games as a road favorite; Wolfpack is 3-0-1 in last four games as home dog and is 10-3-1 since '08 when getting points at home- this is first year for new coach Doeren. Clemson allowed 522 yards to veteran Georgia offense in 38-35 opening win; State survived I-AA Richmond 23-21 in last minute and routed a graduation-ravaged La Tech team in its only I-A game.

Armadillosports.com

Clemson at N.C. State
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

Week 4 of the college football regular season starts off with a big ACC opener between Clemson and North Carolina State. The opening weekend win over Georgia has Clemson highly ranked in the polls and a viable threat to make a run at joining the national title conversation. Clearing the hurdles in the ACC must come first and N.C. State ended those hopes for highly regarded Florida State last season. This matchup featured 110 points last season in a 62-48 win for the Tigers and more fireworks should be expected in primetime this week.

Matchup: Clemson Tigers at N.C. State Wolfpack
Venue: Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina (grass)
Date: Thursday, September 19, 2013
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Clemson -14½, Over/Under 66½
Last Meeting: 2012 at Clemson, Clemson (-16½) 62-48

While Oregon and Stanford are getting more attention, the biggest threat to match up with the SEC champion in the final BCS championship game may come from the ACC. Oregon and Stanford will play in November but both teams will face several tough games in the conference season as well as a Pac-12 title game. The path in the ACC certainly looks a bit softer overall with Clemson holding its toughest ACC games against Florida State and Georgia Tech at home. The Tigers will have the rivalry game in Columbia to close the season but now sitting No. 3 in the AP poll Clemson is in a strong position. They can’t overlook an upset minded N.C. State squad with a great track record at home however.

The Wolfpack stunned then No. 3 Florida State at home last season with a 17-16 win as heavy underdogs in October last season and this should be the most prominent home game of the season for N.C. State, outside of possibly the homecoming date with nearby rival North Carolina. N.C. State is going through a coaching change with Dave Doeren taking over after two successful years at Northern Illinois and success as defensive coordinator at Wisconsin before that. Wisconsin’s 2012 offensive coordinator was hired to join Doeren at N.C. State as well when the Badgers changed coaches last winter.

Clemson has not played a meaningful game in nearly three weeks after surviving the big opener with Georgia. In that game Clemson allowed 545 yards as a defense that had issues in many games last season allowed over 11 yards per pass and over five yards per rush. Two turnovers helped the cause as Clemson came up with more big plays than Georgia to hold on for a huge win as Dabo Swinney looks to take the next step with the Tigers in his sixth season. Clemson made it to the Orange Bowl after winning the ACC two years ago but an embarrassing 70-33 loss to West Virginia in that game took away from the successful season. After losing in both big games last year in the regular season Clemson came up with a redeeming win over LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and then opened this year with the big win over Georgia. Two weeks ago Clemson had little trouble pulling past South Carolina State in a blowout win that saw reserves moving into the game pretty early.

N.C. State is also 2-0 but the opening win over Louisiana Tech was not as impressive as it looked with a 40-14 win over a team that won nine games in 2012. Louisiana Tech went through major changes in the off-season and in subsequent games the Bulldogs have barely beat FCS Lamar and then lost to Tulane last week at home. Richmond may be one of the better FCS programs but N.C. State needed a late field goal to win 23-21 in the second game of the season for the Wolfpack and if the Richmond quarterback was able to pass for 300 yards against the N.C. State defense there should be serious concern heading into the matchup with Clemson.

Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd deserves to be on the Heisman Trophy short-list based on his numbers the past two seasons but so far this year his numbers have not warranted that attention yet. He has thrown just over 400 yards with only three touchdowns as he played sparingly in the FCS matchup with South Carolina State. He threw for nearly 4,000 yards last season with a nearly 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio however while also netting over 500 yards gained on the ground. This national TV game without the competition of the normal busy Saturday college football could provide Boyd a perfect opportunity to make his Heisman pitch.

Clemson lost a few key players to the NFL from last season, notably Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins who both made their mark in week 2 at the professional level. Senior running back Roderick McDowell has provided a solid presence on the ground and junior wide receiver Sammy Watkins is as dynamic of a playmaker as there is the ACC so there are plenty of weapons still available to the offense and the Tigers have a veteran offensive line. Just as important were losses on defense however with four of last year’s top six tacklers moving on, and this was not a great defensive team in 2012.

Mike Glennon never quite lived up to expectations as a college quarterback at N.C. State despite tremendous talent. He is now a back-up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, drafted in the third round. Glennon never had the arsenal of skill players that Boyd had however and he was asked to do a lot, ultimately providing some inconsistency. New starting quarterback Pete Thomas is a transfer from Colorado State who had mixed results in his playing time with the Rams but ultimately competed 63 percent of his passes after having great success as a freshman. In two games against marginal competition Thomas is yet to throw a touchdown pass and has three interceptions so it is unlikely that the Wolfpack will be able to keep up in a shootout.

N.C. State has rushed for over 212 yards per game so far this season with junior Tony Creecy and freshman Matt Dayes getting most of the carries so far. While last year’s leading receiver Quintin Payton is still on the team he has been overshadowed by tall freshman Marquez Valdes-Scantling and small speedster senior Rashard Smith, who each have 12 catches through two games. Five of the top six leading tacklers from last season departed for N.C. State and outside of a few veterans on the defensive line this is a very young and inexperienced defense with only three seniors on the field in most groupings. That is not a great sign in this matchup but a marginal defense that had average numbers overall last season had several strong games last season, allowing 18 or fewer points in seven of 13 games last season and Doeren is a defensive-minded coach.

Winning on the road can always be a challenge especially in a primetime Thursday night game so while Clemson does appear to have significant personnel edges, especially on offense, anything can happen in college football as we are reminded every week. Clemson’s only ACC road loss came at Florida State last season and the offense scored at least 37 points in every ACC contest but when Boyd and the Tigers visited Raleigh two years ago they lost 37-13 in one of the worst games of Boyd’s career. Last season the Clemson offense had over 750 yards in this matchup at home, but that is something could also fuel the N.C. State defense.

Last Meeting: Last season Clemson was ranked 11th in the nation when they hosted N.C. State in mid-November, a week after homecoming and a week before the big game with South Carolina. The tricky scheduling spot was evident early as Clemson trailed 24-13 into the second quarter. The Tigers got back on track quickly and with four minutes left in the third quarter Clemson led 55-24 with six consecutive touchdowns before N.C. State scored again. The Wolfpack added 10 points in the fourth quarter to steal the cover as Clemson won by 14 as a 16½-point favorite on the road. N.C. State had defeated Wake Forest in its previous game and still needed another win for bowl eligibility. They did not get it against Clemson but would in the finale but it was not enough to save Tom O’Brien’s job as he was removed before the bowl game. While this loss did not help the cause a 33-6 home loss to Virginia two weeks prior was the more damaging blow and the writing was likely on the wall in the N.C. State locker room despite the big win over Florida State early in the year. Boyd did have two interceptions in the game last season but both he and Glennon had five touchdown passes each in a game that featured 1,351 total yards.

Series History: Clemson is 22-11 S/U vs. N.C. State since 1980 but the Wolfpack have had a strong ATS edge, going 20-13 in that span including covering in the last three meetings and five of the last seven. N.C. State is 17-8 ATS as an underdog in this series including 10-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog. Clemson has won S/U in eight of the last nine meetings but they did lose badly two years ago in Raleigh as a 7-point favorite.

Line Movement: Not surprisingly the favorite and the ‘over’ have climbed with the line jumping from 14 quickly to 14½ and the total jumping to 67 before settling back to 66½ after opening at 66.

Clemson Historical Trends: Clemson is on a strong ATS run in road games going 22-15 ATS since 2005 including covering in eight of the last 11 going back to late 2010. The last three years Clemson is just 6-8 S/U on the road and they have lost S/U as a road favorite five times in the last four years. Clemson has covered in five of the last seven games as a road favorite but the Tigers are just 22-33-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1990. Clemson is 5-12-1 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 1990 but they have covered in three of four instances under Swinney. This should be the biggest road favorite spread for Clemson since 2007 (-17½ at Duke) and regardless of location Clemson is 10-10 ATS under Swinney as a double-digit favorite, only losing S/U once (at Maryland in 2009).

N.C. State Historical Trends: If you are a believer in historical trends there is not a much better home underdog out there than N.C. State in the last three decades. Since 1980 N.C. State is 42-24-1 ATS as a home underdog, winning S/U in 26 instances. The recent numbers are even better with an 11-3-1 ATS record as a home underdog since 2008, winning S/U in nine of those 15 games. N.C. State is 13-8-1 ATS as a double-digit home underdog since 1981, going 5-2-1 since 1998 including last year’s big win over the Seminoles (+17). N.C. State is 11-7 ATS since 1997 in any venue when dogged by two touchdowns or more. Regardless of the spread N.C. State is 22-10-1 ATS at home since 2008 as Raleigh seems to provide an underrated home field edge. Coach Doeren is only in his third season as a head coach but his teams are 14-0 S/U in home games and he did win in the only instance at Northern Illinois playing as a home underdog.

ACC Report - Week 4
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Clemson at North Carolina State

As mentioned, the Tigers were treated rudely in their last visit to Raleigh. That's a rarity, however, as the Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their past six visits to Carter-Finley Stadium, and the road team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series. NC State has traditionally come back strong after a bye, covering nine of their past 10 games in such situations. The Wolfpack is also 16-4-1 ATS in their past 21 home games against a team with a winning record. The total might be the most interesting play in Thursday's game. The 'over' has connected in each of Clemson's two games, while the 'under' has cashed in each of NC State's first two outings, including a 23-21 near-miss against Richmond Sept. 7. These two teams combined for 110 points in their last meetings Nov. 17, 2012, but that was when NC State had QB Mike Glennon at the controls. The quarterback play so far this season has been murky at best for the red and white.

Thursday ACC Action
By Sportsbook.ag

CLEMSON TIGERS (2-0) at NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (2-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Clemson -14.5 & 66
Opening Line & Total: Tigers -14 & 66

Two unbeaten ACC foes open their conference season on Thursday night with hopes of starting the season 3-0 when No. 3 Clemson visits North Carolina State.

The Tigers have proven themselves worthy of their high ranking with a thrilling victory over Georgia in week one. NC State is still looking for its first quality win and it will have plenty of quality to deal with on the other sideline on Thursday. The Wolfpack are hoping to have a better showing defensively than they did last year against Clemson when they allowed 62 points and 754 yards. Even with the poor defensive performance, the Wolfpack only lost by 14 (62-48) and were able to cover the 15-point spread. State has actually covered their past two meetings against the Tigers, but Clemson is 7-2 ATS (6-3 SU) in Raleigh since 1995. However, NC State is also 9-5 ATS (13-2 SU) at home over the past three seasons. The Pack may have a history of being successful at home, but September has not been their favorite month going 1-7 ATS over the past three seasons and 26-38 ATS in the season's first month since 1993. The Tigers have had terrific success against conference foes in the past three years, going 14-3 SU & 13-4 ATS. Clemson also hasn't had a problem covering on the road going 6-3 ATS in its past nine games. As double-digit favorites, the orange and purple aren't likely to lose outright, going 7-0 SU as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points in the past three seasons and a dominating 37-10 SU in this scenario since 1993.

Anything less than a National Championship will be a letdown for the super talented Clemson Tigers this season. They are led by Heisman hopeful QB Tajh Boyd who had the best game of his career in last year's meeting against the Wolfpack, piling up 426 passing yards, 103 rushing yards and scoring a conference record eight touchdowns, with five coming through the air and three on the ground. Boyd did lose one of his favorite targets to the NFL, DeAndre Hopkins, but still has one of the best pass catchers in college football with WR Sammy Watkins, who lit up the NC State secondary for 11 catches, 110 yards and a touchdown last season. Watkins has 146 yards on nine catches this year and is a threat to break the game open at any time. The Tigers would love to get their running attack going early Thursday to open up the passing game. Clemson's ground game is led by senior RB Roderick McDowell who has gained 175 yards on just 30 carries for the pass-happy Tigers.

The Wolfpack are coming off a lackluster win in which they barely edged out 23-point underdog Richmond by a 23-21 score. NC State has had quarterback issues with Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas, throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns in the first two games of this young season. Thomas also hasn't had too much help from the running game where the two leading rushers Matt Dayes and Tony Creecy are averaging just 4.1 yards a carry. State has relied on premier quarterbacks over the years with Mike Glennon and Russell Wilson but now they must hope the junior Thomas can fill these big shoes.

Check out more College Football Odds at Sportsbook.ag!