Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
This season’s Thursday opening night card features seven contests including several major conference teams in action in important games.
Here is a look at three of the biggest games that will formally open up the 2016 college football season Thursday night.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Vanderbilt -3½, Over/Under 43
Last Meeting: 2015, at South Carolina (-1½) 19, Vanderbilt 10
Vanderbilt hasn’t won outright in this series since 2008 and it looks like this will be the first time the Commodores will be a closing line favorite in this series since 1999. Despite losing seven in a row in the series four of those losses came by 10 or fewer points and this year Vanderbilt appears to be in a better position to start the season. After Vanderbilt delivered back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 James Franklin departed for Penn State.
Stanford assistant Derek Mason took over the program and the first two years have been challenging as the roster turned over dramatically before the 2014 season and it has taken some time for things to fall in place. Despite only going from 3-9 to 4-8 last season, the statistics painted the picture of a dramatically improved team and the Commodores picked up two SEC wins. This will be a key game in the bowl hopes for Vanderbilt with a fairly experienced squad in the third year under Mason.
South Carolina was among the top SEC teams from 2011 to 2013 finishing 11-2 with bowl wins in each of those seasons despite never claiming the division title. The Gamecocks have dipped by four wins in each of the past two seasons hitting rock bottom last season at 3-9 with longtime head coach Steve Spurrier resigning midseason.
Former Florida head coach Will Muschamp is taking over after spending last season as the defensive coordinator at Auburn. This year’s team is short on experience and a quarterback battle has taken place all summer between freshman Brandon McIlwain and senior Perry Orth with still no announcement early this week. The offense could be extremely young this season but the defense does have a few veteran playmakers returning and Muschamp’s influence on that side of the ball should point to modest improvement.
Last season these teams met mid-season with both squads sitting with just two wins. South Carolina wound up with a 19-10 win boosted by turnovers and a slight production edge in Columbia. For two teams that look poised to face an uphill battle to deliver SEC wins with making a bowl game perhaps a long shot, this looks like a critical game. For Vanderbilt this is the type of win the team needs to cement the positive trajectory in Mason’s third season while for South Carolina Muschamp can take a big step towards reestablishing himself as coach to contend with after his failed stop in Florida and marginal results last season at Auburn. Both teams also face formidable games ahead to close out September and getting in the win column early could make a big difference in what direction the season heads towards.
Historical Trends: While Vanderbilt is on 4-21 and 0-7 S/U runs in this series the Commodores are on an 8-5-1 ATS run vs. South Carolina since 2002. Vanderbilt has lost outright in five of the last six home openers though they have been dogged in four of those games. Since 2011 Vanderbilt is 17-1 S/U and 11-7 ATS as a home favorite including going 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or fewer points. South Carolina went 0-7 S/U and 3-4 ATS as an underdog last season. Going back to 2005 South Carolina is 19-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. South Carolina has often been in the spotlight in the opening week and the Gamecocks are 15-1 S/U but just 8-8 in the season opener since 2000.
Oregon State Beavers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Venue: TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 9:00 PM ET – BTN
Line: Minnesota -13, Over/Under 54½
Last Meeting: 1981, at Minnesota (-10½) 42, Oregon State 12
Minnesota made Tracy Claeys the full-time head coach late last season and after getting an unexpected bowl bid the Gophers made the most of it with the first bowl win for the program in over a decade. With the changes in the schedule alone the Gophers can expect to have an improved record in 2016 as they faced TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State last season with those squads absent from the schedule this season. This will be an important opening game for Minnesota taking on a Pac-12 team in a game the team should be expected to win.
Senior quarterback Mitch Leidner isn’t a great downfield threat and the Gophers lost last season’s top receiver but the running game should remain a strong point for the offense. The defense had several talented players from last season depart and while the depth may not be as strong this season the numbers may improve. It won’t be a surprise if Minnesota matches last season’s win count by the end of October and emerges as a Big Ten West contender before heading into a trio of big games in November but this is the type of dangerous game that has tripped up the program in the past.
Gary Andersen was the head coach at Wisconsin for two seasons and he beat Minnesota twice in that run. After a 10-3 season but a disastrous 2014 Big Ten championship game Andersen surprised most by leaving the Badgers to take over at Oregon State. He inherited a challenging situation in Corvallis with very few returning players particularly on defense where his area of expertise sides. Oregon State started 2-1 last season before going 0-9 in Pac-12 play and few of those games were competitive, outscored by an average of 24 points per game in conference play. This year’s team has more experience and depth and in a second season under Andersen improvement is possible but the Beavers are unanimously expected to remain at the bottom of the Pac-12.
Last season both teams faced Michigan in losing efforts but the results were contrasting as Oregon State was out-gained by almost 300 yards in a 35-7 loss with the Beavers netting just 138 yards on offense. The Gophers meanwhile appeared to have a ranked Michigan team beat before a touchdown was overturned on replay and Minnesota botched its final opportunity in a game where Minnesota had a 461-296 yardage edge in the 3-point loss for one of the best performances any team had against a very good Wolverines defense. With a favorable schedule Minnesota may not need this game for a bowl bid but it is certainly an important tone-setting game for a program that has been caught in mediocrity for some time. For Oregon State this would be a great opening win that could give the team confidence to compete much better in the grueling Pac-12 campaign ahead.
Historical Trends: While often playing lighter competition Minnesota is on a 16-5 S/U and a 12-6 ATS run in the season opener while going 9-4 ATS in home openers since 2003 with four consecutive covers in the first TCF Bank Stadium game. Minnesota is just 3-8 ATS since 2007 as a double-digit home favorite however as this squad has often played to the level of competition in recent years with some narrow escapes in several non-conference games including going 0-3 ATS in narrow wins over Colorado State, Kent State, and Ohio early last season. Oregon State is 6-18 ATS overall the past two seasons as one of the worst teams in back in the nation as few recent trends are positive. Going back to 1998 Oregon State is 20-19-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog and the Beavers are 23-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2006.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Tennessee Volunteers
Venue: Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 7:30 PM ET - SEC
Line: Tennessee -20, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None
The expectations are justifiably sky high for Tennessee this season with Butch Jones improving the team’s record in each of the last two seasons. Last season’s 9-4 squad had a strong resume with the losses coming in tight games against great competition, losing by seven in double-overtime to Oklahoma, by one against Florida, by four against Arkansas, and by five against Alabama. In three seasons at Tennessee, Jones is only 10-14 SU in SEC play but most are expecting the Volunteers to be the top team in the SEC East this season.
The offense and defense will both return the majority of the starters from last season’s team led by quarterback Joshua Dobbs who was very efficient but not prolific last season as Tennessee led with its rushing attack. Statistically last season’s defense wasn’t that much better than the 2014 outfit but there were several dominant performances down the stretch with Tennessee allowing just 42 points in the final four games combined.
Appalachian State has two very difficult non-conference games in September with this game and a home date with Miami in two weeks otherwise the Mountaineers would be considered a serious candidate for the Group of 5 major bowl bid. After opening the 2014 season 1-5 in the move to FBS play, Appalachian State is 17-2 S/U since and this team should be hungry in 2016 after narrowly missing out on the Sun Belt title last season. The ground attack leads the way for the Mountaineers averaging 271 yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry last season and all the top rushers from last season have returned for this season. Appalachian State only allowed 19.1 points per game last season and with nine starters back the defense should be formidable though this is a significant jump in class.
By mid-October Tennessee will know if it is a SEC and national contender or just headed for another good season as the Volunteers have most of the big games in the first half of the season including a brutal run facing Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama in consecutive weeks. While overlooking this opener is unlikely Tennessee also has a unique showcase game next week vs. Virginia Tech with the game to be played on the Bristol Motor Speedway. While the Mountaineers lost 41-10 vs. Clemson in a similar test last season they were out-gained by just 95 yards in that game for a competitive showing with turnovers helping the Tigers to pull away. For Appalachian State players in the region that were overlooked by SEC schools this should be a huge opportunity but Tennessee scored 45 or more points five times last season and in a similar opening test last season Tennessee was caught in a shootout with Bowling Green but still managed to win by 29.
Historical Trends: Appalachian State has a short history at the FBS level but the Mountaineers have covered in seven of the last nine road games. The Mountaineers have wound up with a slight losing ATS record in each of its two FBS seasons though they were an underdog just once all last season, +19 at Clemson. Tennessee is just 11-17 ATS at home since 2012 and in three seasons under Jones Tennessee is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite. The Volunteers are 8-4 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more since 2010 and Tennessee had won 20 consecutive home openers S/U before losing in double-overtime vs. Oklahoma last season.
Thursday's College Football Game Of The Day: Appalachian State at Tennessee
By Covers.com
Appalachian State Mountaineers at Tennessee Volunteers (-20, 61.5)
Tennessee takes its highest preseason national ranking since 2005 into Thursday’s season opener when the No. 9 Volunteers host dangerous Appalachian State. Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and junior running back Jalen Hurd lead a talented offense and first-year coordinator Bob Shoop takes over a Tennessee defense that is capable of making an impact in the SEC East.
“We have to embrace the expectations,” Dobbs told Gridironnow.com. “It’s our only option. When you downplay something, it means you don’t have the confidence you should have. You can’t shy away from the spotlight.” Appalachian State coach Scott Satterfield told reporters, “I think starting the season, (the Volunteers are) ahead of where Clemson was starting the season last year,” and much of Tennessee’s success may hinge on Dobbs (15 passing touchdowns, 11 rushing in 2015). The Volunteers won their final six games a season ago and Hurd compiled 401 yards rushing in the last three. The Volunteers will be challenged by the Mountaineers, who have won 17 of their last 19 games after edging Ohio in the 2015 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl and return 17 starters -- led by senior running back Marcus Cox (1,423 rushing yards last season).
LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as 21.5-point favorites but the public felt that point spread was a little bit too big and bet the line down to -20. The total opened at 57.5 and has been rising steadily all week - currently sitting at 61.5. View complete line history here.
WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms Thursday night in Knoxville, Tennessee. Temperatures will be warm (mid 80's) and humid (60 percent) with a slight 5-10 mph breeze blowing throughout the game.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The action on this game is all pointing to Tennessee. 85% on the moneyline, 86% on the -21 side and the 61 point total is getting 88% of the action on the OVER." - Michael Stewart of CarbonGaming.ag.
ABOUT APPALACHIAN STATE (2015: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Cox ran for nine scores last season and he will get solid support from sophomore Jalin Moore, who added 731 yards rushing – 528 in the final four games of 2015. Junior quarterback Taylor Lamb runs the show after registering 31 touchdowns passes and nine interceptions last year, but will have an inexperienced receiving corps to work with. The Mountaineers lost defensive end Ronald Blair – a fifth-round NFL draft pick – but linebacker John Law leads the way for a defense that returns eight starters.
ABOUT TENNESSEE (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U): One of the keys for Dobbs will be improving on a 59.6 completion percentage and coach Butch Jones told reporters his receiving group is a “work in progress.” Junior receivers Josh Malone and Josh Smith, along with junior tight end Ethan Wolf, each finished with at least 300 yards through the air last season and freshman wide-out Tyler Byrd could make an immediate impact. Junior running back Alvin Kamara (698 rushing yards rushing, 34 receptions) gives the Volunteers a dual threat, but Tennessee’s rebuilt offensive line is a concern.
TRENDS:
* Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Volunteers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Mountaineers last 5 games in September.
* Over is 19-7 in Volunteers last 26 games in September.
CONSENSUS: When taking a peek at the consensus data, Tennessee is garnering a steady stream of the spread picks at 73 percent. In early returns, Over is picking up 68 percent of the O/U wagers.
NCAAF: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
South Carolina at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt (4-8, 7-5 ATS) hosts South Carolina (3-9, 6-6 ATS) on Thursday night, bringing us our first taste of SEC football this year. South Carolina Gamecocks hope history repeats itself. Historically, South Carolina has had success vs Vanderrbilt. With last years 19-10 win as 2 point home favorite the Gamecocks have won seven straight in the series (3-4 ATS) and fourteen of the past sixteen encounters (7-8-1 ATS).
South Carolina getting 4.5 points of offense at bet365.com is a tempting proposition. However, you do bet South Carolina at some risk. The Gamecocks didn't win an SEC road game last year and have recorded just two the past eight attempts (4-4 ATS).
Thinking total ? Vandy with it's stauch defense were 1-10-1 O/U last season while Gamecocks tallied a 4-7-1 O/U record. Matching that, 'Under' has been the right choice recently in this series (2-7 O/U).
NCAAF Week 1
South Carolina beat Vanderbilt last five years but covered only one of last four; they won 17-13/48-34 in last two visits here. Gamecocks have a new coach and only 9 starters back- they’re 6-9 vs spread on road last three years. Vandy is 2-4 as a home favorite under Mason; they’ve got 15 starters back, have soph QB who started five games LY.
Oregon State was one of youngest teams in country LY but has 13 starters back; Beavers are 2-7 as road underdogs last two years. OSU coach Anderson beat Minnesota 20-7/34-24 while at Wisconsin in 2014-15. Gophers has a new coach and 13 starters back; they’re 10-6 as home favorites last four years. Since 2012, Big 14 teams are 3-7 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team.
Indiana (-7.5) beat FIU 36-22 at home LY, outgaining Panthers 439-406; Hoosiers are 3-2 as road favorites under Wilson. Since 2012, FIU is 7-12 as home dog; they’re got veteran QB and all five starters back on OL. Indiana has new QB starting this year. Last five years, teams from C-USA are 11-8 vs spread when facing a Big 14 team.
Charlotte was 3-6-2 vs spread LY, its first as a I-A team- they lost 58-10 at Kentucky. Louisville is 11-19 as home favorites the last five years; they play Syracuse/Florida State next two weeks, will use this as a tuneup. Cardinals have 17 starters back; this will get ugly if they want it to. Last four years, C-USA teams are 4-6 vs spread when facing an ACC squad.
Wake Forest had only 6 seniors LY; now they’ve got an experienced team, with junior QB (22 starts), 4 starters back on OL. This is first time since ’08 they’re double digit fave against a I-A team. Tulane has new QB, new coach, only 5 starters back on offense; Green Wave is 10-11-1 as road dog the last four years. Last year, AAC teams were 8-2 vs spread when facing an ACC squad.
Western Kentucky was +5 in turnovers, passed for 424 yards in 49-10 win at Rice LY; WKU is 7-3 as home favorites under Brohm- Hilltoppers play Alabama next week, could be looking ahead. Rice is 2-5-1 as road underdogs last two years; Owls have 9 starters back on defense, but QB is a new starter- their OL is young. Underdogs covered WKU’s first lined game the last five years.
Armadillosports.com