College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 21st, 2017

TEMPLE (2 - 1) at S FLORIDA (3 - 0) - 9/21/2017, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
S FLORIDA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
TEMPLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEMPLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 1-1 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-1 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

TEMPLE vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
Temple is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Temple is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

TEMPLE @ SOUTH FLORIDA
Temple is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Temple is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

College Football Week 4

South Florida ran ball for 376 yards in 47-23 home rout of Illinois last week; Bulls are 3-0, with I-A wins by 20-24 points. USF gave up 319 rushing yards in a 46-30 loss at Temple LY. Home favorites are 3-0 vs spread in series games. Owls lost 44-23 in their visit here in 2015. Temple is 2-1 after nipping Mass 29-21 LW; they lost only road game 49-16 at Notre Dame, giving up 422 rushing yards. Temple was 12-4 vs spread as a road underdog under Rhule, but he and most of his players have moved on. USF is 8-1-1 vs spread in last ten games as a home favorite.

Armadillosports.com

Temple at South Florida
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The American Athletic Conference is looking to close the gap with the power five schools and Thursday’s showcase game features two of last season’s top contenders in the conference. Both teams have undergone some changes but have paths to success this season with the victor emerging in the driver’s seat for the division title race.

Here is a preview of the Thursday night matchup between Temple and South Florida.

Match-up: Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls
Venue: At Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 21, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: South Florida -19, Over/Under 63
Last Meeting: 2016, at Temple (+5½) 46, South Florida 30

Temple’s regular season win over South Florida last October decided the AAC East title as both squads went on to finish 7-1 in conference play. Temple went on to defeat Navy in the conference title game last season before losing to Wake Forest in a competitive Military Bowl. For a second straight season Temple entered its bowl game ranked in the AP Top 25 but with a loss wound up left out of the final season rankings in matching 10-4 seasons.

South Florida wound up making a fourth straight season with a big jump in record in 2016, going from 2-10, to 4-8, to 8-5, to 11-2 last season. That four-year rise landed Willie Taggert the Oregon head coaching job as both of these programs are going through coaching transitions in 2017. South Florida’s only other loss last season came hosting Florida State and the Bulls capped off the season with a win over South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

South Florida is still considered one of the top threats to land a New Year’s Day bowl bid as the top ‘Group of Five’ school by season’s end and the Bulls have a very realistic shot to go undefeated as they will likely be favored in every regular season game. The Bulls also will now only play an 11-game regular season schedule after losing a conference road game with Connecticut to Hurricane Irma, though the program hopes to take part in the AAC Championship game for the first time in early December.

Charlie Strong did not meet expectations in three seasons at Texas but he owns a 56-37 career record as a head coach and is in position to restore his career inheriting a talented and experienced South Florida roster from a team that wound up 11-2 last season with a record that included beating schools from the ACC and SEC. The Bulls got a scare in August as a squad many pegged to go undefeated found itself down 16-0 after the first quarter playing across the country for an early opener at San Jose State. South Florida rallied for a 20-point victory and now sits at 3-0 after an impressive 47-23 win hosting Illinois last Friday.

Senior quarterback Quinton Flowers is on pace for another strong statistical season with 678 passing yards and 243 rushing yards in three games, accounting for 10 touchdowns but the passing game has been less efficient with only a 55 percent completion rate and two interceptions, after he threw just seven picks in 331 attempts last season. Flowers led the team is rushing last season with over 1,600 yards on 7.7 yards per carry but his average is at almost half that rate this season as senior Darius Tice has passed up the quarterback as the top rushing option so far this season, splitting time with senior D’Ernest Johnson in the backfield.

Against a fairly marginal three-game set the Bulls have offered some cause for concern defensively. The current 21 points allowed per game average would best last season’s average by far but with nine returning starters and many of the tougher matchups still ahead on the schedule expectations were slightly higher.

With a veteran quarterback Temple’s 10-win 2016 season featured the best offensive production for the program in some time, but it was still lower scoring group that averaged just over 32 points per game and 414 yards per game. Temple has barely averaged 20 points per game so far in a 2-1 start to the season and they are looking at facing perhaps the two best teams in the AAC the next two weeks to close out September.

The Owls lost head coach Matt Rhule to Baylor after a successful four-year rise in Philadelphia going from 2-10 in 2013 to back-to-back 10-4 seasons the past two years with division titles, including winning the AAC championship last season. A bowl win eluded the program in that run and the Owls figure to be a borderline bowl candidate in a rebuilding 2017 season under first year head coach Geoff Collins. Spending the past six seasons as a SEC defensive coordinator at Mississippi State and Florida Collins has good credentials but the staff is mostly new to the program with offensive coordinator Dave Patenaude coming from Coastal Carolina and defensive coordinator Taver Johnson spending the last three years at Purdue.

The Owls lost long-time quarterback Phillip Walker and also last season’s leading rusher while the defense lost many of the top players from a unit that allowed just over 18 points per game and 283 yards per game last season. Notre Dame was a tough matchup but against a FCS foe and a Massachusetts team that has been consistently among the worst FBS squads in recent years Temple has already allowed 489 yards per game in the 2-1 start.

The offense has offered some promise with Logan Marchi earning the starting quarterback spot as a sophomore. He has thrown five touchdown passes with no interceptions and is on pace to best Walker’s 2016 numbers. The running game has struggled with Temple gaining just 2.9 yards per rush this season as junior Ryquell Armstead has not come close to matching the 5.9 yards per carry average he had last season. Temple has found a way to win two close games however and the 49-16 defeat against Notre Dame in the opening week was somewhat misleading with the Irish adding 14 points in the final six minutes.

Temple is 13-2 S/U at home since 2015 but now just 9-7 in road and neutral site games in that span and if the Owls find a way to win this week it would be the program’s biggest upset, at least by the pointspread, since the colossal 28-24 win over Virginia Tech in 1998, playing as a more than five-touchdown underdog against an undefeated #14 ranked squad.

For South Florida this is a revenge game and an important division game for a program looking for its first conference championship since making the leap to the now FBS level in 2001. The toughest tests for South Florida figure to be in the final three games of the regular season facing Houston, Tulsa, and UCF but the Bulls can’t afford a misstep especially with the league slate shortened for several AAC teams. Temple has won this division in both years of its existence and the Owls aren’t likely to surrender that top spot without a strong challenge this week.

Last Season: South Florida had dominated Temple in the 2015 meeting in Temple winning 44-23 as an underdog but Temple returned the favor in Philadelphia last October with a 46-30 result and the statistics were even more lopsided with Temple posting a 528-352 edge in production. South Florida led 23-20 late in the third quarter but the Owls outscored the Bulls 26-7 the rest of the way, posting 319 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Quinton Flowers had a strong statistical game accounting for three touchdowns for South Florida but the Owls current top rusher Ryquell Armstead had a career day with 210 rushing yards including breaking a 76-yard run.

Historical Trends:

This is the fourth meeting between these schools with the teams splitting the past two seasons and Temple winning a 2012 meeting at home.

South Florida hit a lousy home favorite run in disappointing seasons from 2010 to 2012 but since 2014 South Florida is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite without ever being upset outright.

The Bulls are just 2-5 ATS in the last seven instances as a double-digit favorite though they had covered in seven in a row prior to that run starting in 2015.

South Florida is just 23-32-3 ATS at home since 2008 but that trend has turned around the past three years with South Florida 9-25-2 ATS from 2008 to 2013 but 14-7-1 ATS since 2014. Temple has been a strong road underdog in the past decade with a 25-13 ATS mark since 2007 that included going 4-0 ATS last season.

Temple is 16-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2007, though they missed as a +20 underdog at Notre Dame earlier this season.

USF hosts Temple
By: StatFox.com

South Florida will be hoping to stay perfect with a Thursday night victory over Temple.

Temple is coming off of a 29-21 victory over Massachusetts last week, but the team was favored by 14.5 in that one. The Owls have now failed to cover in all three of their games this season, which could be an indication that they are missing head coach Matt Rhule. Rhule left to take the Baylor job in the offseason, but he has also had his struggles. Baylor is off to an 0-3 start both SU and ATS, so at least things are going a bit better for Temple. The team also happens to have a chance to turn some heads with a victory over South Florida on Thursday. The Bulls are coming off of a dominant 47-23 victory as 16.5-point favorites over Illinois last week, and that was South Florida’s first win-and-cover this season. The team racked up 680 yards of total offense in that game, and it was the first time this team truly looked good since last season. A lot of that could have to do with the fact that former head coach Willie Taggart is now in Oregon, but new head coach Charlie Strong is no slouch. Perhaps they found their groove last week, and that is certainly something they are hoping is true. South Florida lost 46-30 as a six-point favorite against Temple last year, so the team knows it must be at its best in order to win this one here. Working in the Bulls’ favor is the fact that they won 44-23 as three-point home underdogs against the Owls in Tampa two years ago. Temple is, however, a ridiculous 9-0 ATS against conference opponents dating back to last season. The Owls are also 11-3 ATS after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game over the past three seasons.

Temple is 2-1 right now, but this team has a lot room for improvement moving forward. The Owls have really struggled on the offensive side of the ball, and it’s QB Logan Marchi (796 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT) that is going to need to play a lot better soon. Marchi has completed only 57.5% of his passes this season and that is not an acceptable number for a team that has high expectations. Marchi will need to be a lot more accurate with the ball on Thursday or this game could get out of hand. The atmosphere in Tampa will be electric for a night game like this one, and the Bulls will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes that Marchi makes. One thing that would help Marchi in this game is a solid rushing attack. That means that RB Ryquell Armstead (177 yards) will be leaned on heavily here. Armstead is a very good back, but he has not yet hit the 100-yard mark this season. If he can do that on Thursday then Temple just might be able to pull off this upset. Defensively, it’s all about finding a way to contain Quinton Flowers. The Bulls’ offense runs through Flowers, so if Temple can slow him down then this should be a good one.

The Bulls have been waiting for QB Quinton Flowers (678 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT) to turn in one of his signature performances, and he finally did that against Illinois last week. In that 47-23 victory, Flowers was 15-for-27 for 280 yards with four touchdowns and only one pick. He also added 106 yards and a score on the ground. Flowers clearly misses Taggart’s Gulf Coast Offense, but clearly what they were doing last week worked. Flowers will once again try to shred his opponent both through the air and on the ground on Tuesday, but Temple’s defense is a lot better than Illinois’. He should definitely expect a few more hiccups here. RB Darius Tice (256 yards, 4 TD) could have an increased role in this Thursday night game. The Bulls are going to want to keep Temple guessing, so giving Tice as many carries as he can handle will only benefit Flowers and South Florida. Tice has also scored in all three games the team has played this season, showing good things happen when he touches the ball. On defense, South Florida would be wise to focus on stopping the run.

Thursday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Temple at South Florida
Covers.com

Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls (-19.5, 63)

Quinton Flowers could be battling his way back into the Heisman Trophy conversation after a big performance and the star quarterback looks to help 17th-ranked South Florida build momentum when it opens American Athletic Conference play against visiting Temple on Thursday night. Flowers accounted for 386 of the team’s 680 yards and five touchdowns in the 47-23 win over Illinois last week and next hopes to avenge the Bulls’ last loss.

The Owls knocked off USF 46-30 last October in Philadelphia and the Bulls have won eight in a row since to match a school record, led by an offense that has produced at least 30 points in a national-best 20 consecutive games while averaging 40 in the first three of 2017. Temple is not the same team as last year, but its defense has shown it can make plays with 14 sacks in the first three games - nine last week in a 29-21 win over Massachusetts. The Owls have won two in a row since getting pounded 49-16 by Notre Dame in their opener and boast four receivers with at least eight catches and 100 yards in the first three contests. The Owls have leaned on their passing attack, which has produced 262.3 yards per game with no interceptions, and South Florida’s improving defense has picked off eight passes in the first three games.

LINE HISTORY: The South Florida Bulls opened as 18-point home favorites and that number wasn't enough for bettors, forcing the line up to -19.5 by Wednesday. The total hit the betting boards at 58.5 and has jumped all of the way up to 63. Follow the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Temple - No injuries to report.

South Florida - WR D. Salomon (Probable, Undisclosed), WR D. Antoine (Questionable, Lower Body), LB A. Polk Jr. (Questionable, Knee), OL G. Bethel (Questionable, Leg), WR R. Bronson (Out For Season, Shoulder).

TEMPLE (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Sophomore quarterback Logan Marchi has thrown for 767 yards in the first three games with five touchdown passes, but the ground attack has not been as productive. Junior running back Ryquell Armstead tops the Owls with 177 yards rushing, but the team is averaging 2.9 per carry in the early going while senior Keith Kirkwood (12 catches, 185 yards), sophomore Isaiah Wright (nine, 180) and senior Adonis Jennings (eight, 146) have all been factors through the air. Freshman end Quincy Roche, who was named co-AAC defensive player of the week Monday, owns four sacks while junior defensive back Delvon Russell has 28 tackles.

SOUTH FLORIDA (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): The Bulls struggled often defensively last year, but they are showing the ability to take the ball away in the early going and have not allowed a point in the third quarter in the first three games. “It’s a different feeling (from last season) because the defense is playing lights out,” USF’s leading rusher senior Darius Tice (256 yards) told reporters. “This is a new feeling.” Junior defensive back Ronnie Hoggins and sophomore linebacker Nico Sawtelle lead a balanced unit with 18 tackles each while both own an interception for the Bulls, who are 14th in the nation in rushing defense (89.3 yards) after permitting just 67 last Friday against Illinois.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.
* Bulls are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-2 in Owls last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 11-1 in Bulls last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The home chalk Bulls are getting 61 percent of the action and the Over is picking up 57 percent of the totals wagers.