CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at MEMPHIS (3 - 0) - 9/24/2015, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI vs. MEMPHIS
Cincinnati is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cincinnati at Memphis
Cincinnati: 10-6 ATS against conference opponents
Memphis: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less
Thursday's Top Action
By Sportsbook.ag
CINCINNATI BEARCATS (2-1) at MEMPHIS TIGERS (3-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Memphis -7
Memphis tries to begin the season 4-0 when it opens conference play Thursday at home versus Cincinnati.
The Bearcats fell to 0-3 ATS last week, but were able to escape at Miami Ohio with a 37-33 victory. The Tigers also struggled with a MAC opponent on the road last week, as they edged Bowling Green in a wild 44-41 affair.
Cincinnati is averaging 38.3 PPG this season despite turning the ball over 11 times already. Memphis has displayed an even more explosive offense with 54.0 PPG thanks to zero turnovers in two of the three contests.
These schools are playing for the third straight season as American Athletic Conference foes and the road team has won each of the first two meetings by double-digits. After the Bearcats cruised to a 34-21 away victory in 2013, the Tigers returned the favor last season with a 41-14 trouncing.
Part of that was due to Cincy QB Gunner Kiel leaving with a rib injury, and Kiel is listed as questionable for Thursday after suffering a head injury last week. The Bearcats have usually played well against good teams, going 35-16 ATS (69%) against schools winning by 10+ PPG since 1992.
But in this same timeframe, Memphis is a whopping 27-10 ATS (73%) versus great offenses averaging 425+ total YPG.
And while the Tigers have no significant injuries, Cincinnati saw two other players get hurt last week in RB Mike Boone (ankle) and DB Adrian Witty (leg), who are questionable for this matchup.
Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel has had a pretty strong season with 805 yards on 63% completions, 8.05 YPA and 5 TD throws, but he has also tossed four interceptions. Backup QB Hayden Moore has a similar 8.04 YPA, but has completed only 54% of his throws for 225 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT.
Moore had four turnovers in the fourth quarter of last week's game (2 INT, 2 fumbles), but led his team on a game-winning drive capped by his own QB sneak with 1:13 left in regulation. Kiel had decent numbers versus Memphis last year, completing only11-of-27 passes, but totaled 216 yards (8.0 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT.
Both Bearcats signal callers have done a great job spreading the wealth, as six players have more than 125 receiving yards, but none have more than senior WR Johnny Holton's 167 receiving yards (20.9 avg, 2 TD). Cincy has also done a great job of keeping its running backs fresh with three players having reached 220 rushing yards so far with junior RB Tion Green producing a team-high 252 yards (5.1 YPC, 3 TD).
Sophomore RB Mike Boone has been the standout with 9.6 YPC and 3 TD including a 74-yard run last week against Miami Ohio before he exited with an injured ankle.
The Bearcats defense allowed only 115 passing YPG in the first two contests, but the Redhawks threw for 228 against them last week and also ran for 220. These numbers may not improve, as Memphis had 610 total yards of offense in last year's win at Cincinnati, passing for 311 and rushing for 299.
Memphis QB Paxton Lynch has been on the mark so far this season, completing 77% of his throws for 818 yards (10.6 YPA), 6 TD and 0 INT. His numbers were even more impressive against the Bearcats last year when he connected on 18-of-25 passes for 311 yards (12.4 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT.
Four Tigers have already topped the 100-yard mark, led by senior WR Mose Frazier, who has 17 grabs for 232 yards and 2 TD. The big-play receiver has been fellow senior WR Tevin Jones, who is averaging 23.8 yards per catch with a pair of touchdowns. Jones caught five passes for 70 yards and a score versus Cincinnati last year. Memphis has done a nice job running the football with 251 rushing YPG on 4.6 YPC, and four ball carriers have 135+ yards and 2+ TD already.
Sophomore RB Jarvis Cooper is the Tigers leader in rushing attempts (36) and rushing yards (174), while sophomore RB Doroland Dorceus has a team-high four touchdown runs.
Like Cincinnati, the Memphis defense also played well in the first two weeks (242 total YPG), but struggled to stop Bowling Green last Saturday in surrendering 579 total yards.
This included a hefty 443 yards through the air. The Tigers have failed to generate any turnovers in the past two contests, but will certainly have their chances on Thursday with the mistake-prone Cincy offense coming to town.
Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag
College Football Week 4
Memphis won its last ten games since midseason loss to Houston last October; Tigers are 5-6 as home favorites under Fuente. Cincinnati won five of last seven games with Memphis, with underdogs covering three of last four; Bearcats won three of last four visits to Liberty Bowl (4-0 vs spread), but Memphis is rising power, Cincy gave up 435 rushing yards, 67 points in its two games vs I-A teams; they're 4-7 as road underdogs since 2010, 2-2 in 2+ years under Tuberville.
Armadillosports.com
NCAAF: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com
Cincinnati at Memphis
Bearcats a money-burning 0-3 against-the-spread to open the campaign, 0-5 ATS its last five in September, 6-10 ATS L16 away from home will be hard pressed improving those numbers. Memphis torched Bearcats 41-14 last year in Cinci and this year Tigers are roaming in their own backyard. Tigers averaging a whopping 54 points/game on 570 yards/game should be able to do whatever they want offensively against visiting Bearcats. Tigers 6-1-1 ATS in September games, 16-5 ATS as host vs a team with a winning road record have been pegged 9-point faves.
Cincinnati at Memphis
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
The American Athletic Conference (AAC) lacks "Power 5" status but the conference has produced a couple of big wins this season with upsets over Penn State and Louisville.
The conference is in a division format this season and two of the three teams that tied at 7-1 on top of the conference last season will meet in this crossover game with Cincinnati and Memphis playing Thursday night to start the fourth week of the college season.
After back-to-back 9-4 seasons under Tommy Tuberville the 2015 Bearcats looked capable of an even bigger breakthrough with most of the offense back in action. It has been a difficult start with Cincinnati’s comeback effort at home against Temple falling short in week 2 and the Bearcats nearly losing to Miami, OH last week across town.
The schedule is very difficult in the next few weeks with this big conference test and then non-conference games with Miami, FL and BYU in the following two games. The odds suggest Cincinnati will match the loss count of the past two seasons by the midpoint of the season before finishing with conference games that should propel the Bearcats at least back to bowl eligibility.
While Memphis will be playing its first conference game this week, Cincinnati cannot afford another defeat while staying in the AAC East division race having already lost to Temple in the division standings. Temple will also have to play Memphis but that game will be at home in November and the Owls look like they will be tough to catch in the division race.
Most of the teams in the West division have some question marks with significant roster turnover, three coaching changes, and a new entrant to the league in Navy. So far Memphis has looked like a team capable of playing for the division title even after losing 20 lettermen from last season’s 10-3 squad.
A quarterback injury will be the big story in the build-up to this game. Gunner Kiel threw for over 3,200 yards last season with 32 touchdowns and the junior that originally committed to Notre Dame was injured last week on a personal foul hit.
Backup Hayden Moore is a redshirt freshman and in his first action last week he had four turnovers in the fourth quarter but did wind up scoring the game winning touchdown for Cincinnati. With the short week and Kiel in possible concussion recovery it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to play this week and the line in this game has climbed.
Last season Cincinnati lost 41-14 at home against Memphis with the defense allowing 610 yards. It was 24-7 at the end of the first quarter and Kiel had an ugly game with just 11 completions. Memphis had a very good defense last season en route to a 10-3 season but the Tigers lost seven of the top eight leading tacklers from that team. Kansas and Bowling Green have both posted solid production numbers against Memphis the last two weeks but the Tigers have survived for a 3-0 start to the season with the offense looking like the strength of the team this season.
Kiel has received a lot more accolades but Memphis junior quarterback Paxton Lynch also threw for over 3,000 yards last season and he has completed nearly 77 percent of his passes this season with six touchdowns and no interceptions through three weeks.
Memphis has four running backs with over 130 yards already this season and the Tigers have 12 rushing touchdowns in three games as head coach Justin Fuente runs a very balanced offense in contrast to the pass-heavy attack for Cincinnati. If Kiel sits the make-up of the play-calling for the Bearcats is likely to be adjusted however and the total on this game seems to be dropping with that in mind.
Historical Trends: Cincinnati had covered in six straight meetings going back to 2000 before losing badly as a slight home favorite last season. In the last meeting at Memphis Cincinnati won 34-21 in 2013. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS as a double-digit underdog in this series but most of those instances came decades ago. Since 2007 Cincinnati is 31-15 S/U on the road with a 25-20-1 ATS record but since 2010 Cincinnati is 1-9 S/U and 2-8 ATS as a road underdog. Cincinnati was has been a double-digit road underdog just twice since 2008 with both games last season, losing 50-28 (+17) at Ohio State and 55-34 (+15) at Miami, FL.
Memphis is on a 22-36-2 ATS run as a home favorite since 1993 but going back to 1984 Memphis is on a 21-11 ATS run as a home favorite of 10 or more points, covering in 10 of 12 instances since 2004. Memphis is just 14-23 S/U and 16-21 ATS at home since 2009.
Game of the Day: Cincinnati at Memphis
By Covers.com
Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-10, 66.5)
Two of the nation’s most prolific offenses meet in an American Athletic Conference showdown when Cincinnati visits Memphis on Thursday night. While Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch looks to lead the Tigers to their 11th consecutive victory, Cincinnati signal-caller Gunner Kiel suffered a shoulder injury last Saturday and is considered day-to-day.
“He’ll have a good chance to play,” Bearcats coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday of Kiel, who has thrown for 805 yards and five touchdowns in three games. Freshman Hayden Moore is the backup for Cincinnati, which has six players with at least 128 receiving yards. The 6-7 Lynch has completed 76.6 percent of his passes with six touchdown strikes and no interceptions for Memphis, which has totaled 162 points in three wins as it prepares for its toughest test yet. “I think we have one of the best offenses in the country,” Tigers running back Sam Craft told the Memphis Commercial Appeal. “We’re just trying to prove it day in and day out.”
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Memphis as a 7-point fave but that has been moved to -9.5. The total opened at 67.5, but has come down to 66.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at around four miles per hour.
INJURY REPORT: Cincinnati - RB Mike Boone (Probable, ankle), WR Shaq Washington (Probable, undisclosed), WR Mekale McKay (Probable, undisclosed), QB Gunner Kiel (Doubtful, head), OL Idarius Ray (Questionable, undisclosed), CB Leviticus Payne (Questionable, undisclosed). Memphis - OL Taylor Fallin (Questionable, undisclosed).
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Memphis won 41-14 in Cincinnati last season, and there’s a very good chance that the Tigers easily eclipse that point total in this game. Memphis’ offense has been unstoppable so far this season, and the Bearcats’ defense is reeling right now; they gave up 67 points combined to Miami (OH) and Temple in their last two games. Cincinnati also lost defensive captain Adrian Witty for the season to a broken ankle last week, and starting quarterback Gunner Kiel is listed as questionable with a head injury. If he can’t play, freshman Hayden Moore will start, and Cincinnati’s offense may be more conservative and try to control the clock by running the ball more often." Covers Expert Steve Merril.
ABOUT CINCINNATI (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS, 3-0 O/U): Kiel has completed 63 percent of his passes, but threw four interceptions in the Bearcats’ 34-26 loss to Temple on Sept. 12, and Moore had two picks in the 37-33 win over Miami (Ohio) last week. Cincinnati boasts three players with at least 220 rushing yards while Johnny Holton (eight catches, 167 yards) and Shaq Washington (17, 166) are the top receiving targets. The Bearcats, who are allowing a conference-best 152.3 yards per game through the air, lost senior cornerback Adrian Witty (ankle) indefinitely last week.
ABOUT MEMPHIS (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U): The Tigers average 570.3 yards to rank eighth in the country – one spot behind Cincinnati (579.3) – and never have scored more points in a three-game stretch in team history after the 44-41 win over Bowling Green last Saturday. Jarvis Cooper (174 yards, three TDs) leads a deep running back corps that has accumulated 12 rushing scores. Mose Frazier is Lynch’s first option with 17 receptions and 232 yards to go along with two touchdowns while the Tigers have recorded eight sacks – led by lineman Donald Pennington’s 2.5.
TRENDS:
* Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Bearcats last five games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Tigers last six home games.
CONSENSUS: Fifty-seven percent of Covers users are on the Bearcats.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
Cincinnati at Memphis (-7.5, 68)
My power ratings make Memphis -7, so there appears to be a little bit of line value on Cincinnati in this game. However, Memphis won 41-14 in Cincinnati last season, and there’s a very good chance that the Tigers easily eclipse that point total in this game tonight. Memphis’ offense has been unstoppable so far this season, and the Bearcats’ defense is reeling right now; they gave up 67 points combined to Miami (OH) and Temple in their last two games.
Cincinnati also lost defensive captain Adrian Witty for the season to a broken ankle last week, and starting quarterback Gunner Kiel is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Reports indicate he will likely give it a go, but if he can’t play or leaves the game early, freshman Hayden Moore will play. Cincinnati’s offense would then be more conservative and try to control the clock by running the ball more often.