College Football Betting News and Notes Thursday, September 25

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The Thursday night college football schedule features three games this week highlighted by key matchups in the Big XII and Pac-12. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State face off in an opening conference game for both teams after 2-1 starts to the season and this will be a key game in the conference pecking order for two programs expected to slide a bit downward this season despite great success in the last decade.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Line: Oklahoma State -14

Both teams were ranked in the top 18 of the polls last season when Oklahoma State visited the then 7-1 Red Raiders last season. Texas Tech had just suffered its first loss of the season to Oklahoma in a tight game and Oklahoma State stormed out to a 21-0 lead before Texas Tech crept within four by halftime with the help of a defensive touchdown. Ultimately the balanced offense for Oklahoma State was too much as the Cowboys pulled away in a game where Texas Tech had more yards.

That loss wound up being the second of five straight losses to close the regular season for Texas Tech after a 7-0 start but the Red Raiders did get a redeeming Holiday Bowl win over Arizona State. Oklahoma State wound up with a 10-2 regular season but they surrendered the Big XII title and a possible BCS bowl spot losing to Oklahoma in the season finale and then wound up losing to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. With the season opening loss to Florida State this year it marked the first time since Mike Gundy’s first season in 2005 that the program had lost three consecutive games.

With very few starters back from last season’s team most have projected a fall for Oklahoma State this season and the Cowboys were a heavy underdog in the opening week game with Florida State in Arlington. Oklahoma State lost but earned a lot of respect in the defeat, taking the defending national champions down to the wire in a 37-31 game, rallying back from an early 17-0 deficit. Oklahoma State responded with wins in the next two weeks, although the 40-23 win over FCS Missouri State was not thoroughly impressive. The 43-13 win over Texas San Antonio was much more credible however as the Roadrunners have a strong veteran team that beat Houston and took Arizona to a three-point game in their other contests.

Junior quarterback J.W. Walsh was given a shot to start for the Cowboys last season but he eventually conceded the lead role to Clint Chelf. After a strong opening game this season Walsh unfortunately injured his foot in the game versus Missouri State, leaving junior Daxx Garman in charge of the Cowboys offense. Garman has filled in admirably with 559 passing yards and no interceptions but he is nowhere near the rushing threat that Walsh was and the competition will escalate in Big XII play.

Oklahoma State will face a Texas Tech defense that has allowed nearly 37 points per game this season despite a reasonably favorable schedule. Allowing 49 points against Arkansas is one thing but UTEP posted 26 points and Central Arkansas posted 35 points in narrow wins for the Red Raiders. The defensive staff is in flux right now as defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt resigned last week with speculation that the move was related to substance abuse rather than performance. Outside linebackers coach Mike Smith has taken over the defense for the rest of the season under second year head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Texas Tech still possesses one of the great passing offenses in the nation and sophomore quarterback Davis Webb has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in three games. He does have four interceptions already this season and he did struggle with less than 55 percent completions in his lone road start this season. The Red Raiders are aiming to be a bit more balanced offensively this season so far rushing for over 170 yards per game after averaging fewer than 120 yards per game on the ground last season.

For both teams the strength of the team and the coaching staff are on offense and both teams returned very few key experienced players on defense this season. Over the last three seasons this matchup has averaged nearly 80 points per game with Oklahoma State now having won and covered in five straight seasons in this series and another higher scoring game seems likely to kick off the college football weekend.

Line Movement: The line opened at -15 before falling to -13 and bouncing back to -14.

Texas Tech Historical Trends: Texas Tech has lost S/U & ATS in five straight meetings in this series while going 1-8 ATS vs. Oklahoma State since 2005. The Red Raiders are 6-13 ATS as a road underdog since 2005 and 4-12 ATS coming off a S/U loss since 2011. The Red Raiders are just 3-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2010.

Oklahoma State Historical Trends: Oklahoma State is 85-62-1 ATS at home since 2002 and 41-18 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2002. In that span Oklahoma State is impressively 29-10 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. The Cowboys are 4-0 S/U & ATS in the last four home meetings with Texas Tech going back to 2005.

There are two additional Thursday night games this week:

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern

Line: Georgia Southern -16

These FBS newcomers played regularly as Southern Conference members at the FCS level. Georgia Southern is the heavy favorite this week and this is a team that has made some noise already this season with a 2-2 start including a 28-6 win at South Alabama last week while also giving great scares to both NC State and Georgia Tech in narrow losses.

It is Appalachian State that has won the last three meetings between these programs however, including a 38-14 win last season with the Mountaineers posting 515 yards against the Eagles team that would eventually upset Florida late last season. Appalachian State is 1-2 this season with only a win over lowly FCS Campbell. In the hyped opening game with Michigan the Mountaineers did not compete well and last week with a great opportunity for a win the Mountaineers fell 21-20 against Southern Miss on the road. That was a game where Appalachian State had significant yardage edges and many great scoring opportunities but wound up missing three field goals. Despite the kicking woes the Mountaineers went for the tie upon scoring late and the cowardly move was punished with a blocked extra point to seal the defeat.

Georgia Southern is rushing for 357 yards per game this season, the second best mark nationally at this point in the season and this is even with the loss of running back Jerick McKinnon to the NFL. Appalachian State has been a bit more balanced and last week highly regarded redshirt freshman quarterback Taylor Lamb got his first start and played the full game, leading a productive attack but one that failed to cash in on several opportunities.

UCLA at Arizona State

Line: UCLA -5½

Two undefeated Pac-12 South contenders face off Thursday night in what should be one of the bigger games of the Pac-12 season but injuries have soured the appeal of the game. UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has been banged up with an elbow issue but is expected to play but senior Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly has been ruled out with a foot injury. Kelly had a brilliant season leading the Sun Devils to the division title last season and he will be replaced by senior Mike Bercovici who has played sparingly.

Last season Arizona State won 38-33 at UCLA in a matchup of top 20 teams late in the season in a game that clinched the division title for the Sun Devils. Arizona State had a modest yardage edge but benefitted from a defensive touchdown to build a 35-13 lead at halftime before UCLA made a valiant comeback that fell just short. UCLA opened the season projected as a national title contender but in a 3-0 S/U and 0-3 ATS start the Bruins have had underwhelming offensive numbers. The schedule has featured quality opposition but more was expected of a team with great experience coming off last season’s 10-3 campaign highlighted by blowout wins over USC and Virginia Tech to close the year.

Outside of Kelly the Sun Devils have one of the least experienced teams in the conference but Todd Graham did pull in some quality transfers to boost the squad. Arizona State is 3-0 but the schedule has been weak and the defense has looked vulnerable against questionable competition. UCLA has covered in eight of the last 11 meetings in this series but Arizona State has won S/U in four of the last seven meetings and the Bruins are just 25-37 ATS as a road favorite since 1988.

NCAAF Week 5

Appalachian State trailed Southern Miss 20-14 last week, scored tying TD with 0:06 left, then had PAT blocked and lost 21-20, even though ASU outgained Southern Miss by 66 yards. ASU beat Eagles last three years, by 7-3-21 points- they won three of last four visits here. Eagles are pretty good, losing to NC State/Ga Tech on road by combined total of five points- they won 28-6 at South Alabama last week, even though they only completed six passes the whole game.

Oklahoma State doesn't play a road game until October 11, because they lost 7 starters on both sides of ball; OSU lost 37-31 to Florida State on a neutral field, so they're pretty good- they're 24-9 in last 33 games as a home favorite. Cowboys won last five games with Texas Tech, scoring 59 ppg in last three meetings, winning by 18-38-60 points. Tech failed to cover its last four visits here. Red Raiders gave up 438 rushing yards in last game, a 49-28 home loss to Arkansas- it was so bad they fired their defensive coordinator, saying he coached under the influence. Really.

Arizona State is 2-3 in last five games with UCLA; last three series tilts were decided by total of 8 points. Sun Devils lost QB Kelly; major step down to backup Bercovici, who threw four passes LY, is 9-17 this year. ASU won easily at New Mexico/Colorado, but they have to scale back their offense bigtime now. Bruins gutted out 20-17 win at Texas behind backup QB Neuheisel; check Hundley's (elbow) status for this. There is a big dropoff for them if Hundley sits, but not as much as ASU has. UCLA lost four of last six visits here; they're 5-2 as road underdogs in Mora era. Sun Devils are 9-4 as home favorites under Graham.

Armadillosports.com

UCLA at Arizona State Betting Preview and Pick
By: Matty Simo
Sportingnews.com

LAS VEGAS – Two undefeated Pac-12 teams battling for the lead in the conference’s South Division square off in Tempe on Thursday night, when the UCLA Bruins visit the Arizona State Sun Devils (10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). The Bruins are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 meetings with the Sun Devils but are still looking for their first cover of the 2014 season. ASU did win last season's meeting, 38-33, as a 3-point road favorite.

UCLA star quarterback Brett Hundley is expected to play on Thursday after hyperextending his left elbow in a game against Texas two weeks ago.

The Line: UCLA -4.5, Total: 59.5

Line movement: UCLA opened as a 3-point road favorite at The Wynn Las Vegas on Sunday, was bet up to -5 at most shops around town, before moving back down to -4.5 as of Wednesday morning. For updated spreads and totals, visit our live odds page .

Trends that matter: UCLA is 3-0 ATS in its last three road games after a bye week....Arizona State is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games after a bye week....Arizona State is 5-2 ATS in last seven home games against Pac-12 opponents.

Bruins yet to live up to hype: As one of the top 10 teams in the Don Best/Linemakers College Football Power Ratings every week so far in 2014, one would think UCLA would have looked the part in at least one of the first three games this season. However, the Bruins are 0-3 against the spread despite a 3-0 straight-up mark, with each game decided by eight points or less.

UCLA is coming off a bye week and still moved up to No. 6 in the power patings from No. 7 last week. While the Bruins have yet to play up to their high expectations, that does not mean they are not capable of breaking through in a big spot on national television Thursday night. Even oddsmakers realize it’s just a matter of time.

“UCLA hasn’t played anywhere near their potential yet,” Johnny Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, told The Linemakers on Sporting News this week.

Avello has seen bettors fade UCLA in two of the first three games and come out victorious. UCLA was bet down 4 points in each of its first two games, against Virginia (-23 to -19) and Memphis (-26.5 to -22.5), before bettors jumped on board against Texas and moved the line 1 point in the Bruins’ favor, only to see them fail to cover as 8.5-point favorites in a 20-17 win.

Sun Devils preparing for Hundley: Hundley is officially listed as “questionable” on the injury report for Thursday’s game against Arizona State, but Sun Devils head coach Todd Graham believes he will suit up and start against his team. Hundley suffered an elbow injury in the first quarter of a 20-17 win for the Bruins over the Longhorns on Sept. 13.

“No doubt in my mind, we're planning for their quarterback to play,” Graham said on Monday.

UCLA head coach Jim Mora has not revealed Hundley’s status and noted he still needs to be medically cleared in order to play.

Meanwhile, Graham had previously announced that his starting quarterback Taylor Kelly will not play due to a foot injury. Backup quarterback Mike Bercovici is expected to start in Kelly’s place, and he has completed 14 passes in his college career for a total of 112 yards.

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures in the 90s, with sunny and clear skies. Visit Weather Underground for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers' lean: We're all in on UCLA here. Micah Roberts says the line hasn’t been adjusted enough with Tayloy Kelly out, and that it could be argued that the spread should be closer to UCLA -10. Kenny White points out UCLA has the far better quarterback and a better defense – one that can slow down running back D.J. Foster. It’ll be a difficult environment for the Bruins in Tempe, but they have revenge after last season’s home loss to the Sun Devils. UCLA may be Kenny’s biggest play of the year.

UCLA, ASU clash in the desert
By Sportsbook.ag

UCLA BRUINS (3-0) at ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (3-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Arizona State -5.5, Total: 59.5

Thursday night will be a huge night in determining the Pac-12 conference, as No. 11 UCLA travels to Tempe to take on No. 15 Arizona State.

Quarterback play is big in any game, but it may be even more important on Thursday night. In a 20-17 victory against Texas on Sept. 13, Bruins star QB Brett Hundley left the game early with an arm injury, but Jerry Neuheisel was able to come in and get the victory for the team. Right now, UCLA has not commented on who will be the starting quarterback in this game.

However, for Arizona State, QB Taylor Kelly will not start after suffering a foot injury. That means junior QB Mike Bercovici will get the start for the Sun Devils. While the Bruins (0-3 ATS) have not been dominant early in the season, winning all three of their games by a combined 18 points, the Sun Devils (1-2 ATS) have done a good job of taking care of business by winning all three of their games by at least 14 points.

This series has been tight since 1992 with ASU holding a 10-9 SU advantage, and UCLA having the 9-8-2 ATS edge. The Sun Devils hold a 5-3 SU edge at home in this timeframe with the clubs splitting the games 4-4 ATS. The past three meetings have been decided by a total of eight points with the Bruins winning 29-28 in 2011 and 45-43 in 2012 before falling at home to ASU last year, 38-33.

This series also has led to a lot of high-scoring games, as 11 of the past 17 meetings have finished Over the total. While UCLA is 49-31 ATS (61%) in September games since 1992, Arizona State's Todd Graham is 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less as a college head coach.

Bruins LB Myles Jack (ankle) and Sun Devils DB Ezekiel Bishop (undisclosed) headline the list of players who are questionable for this game.

The Bruins were able to find out they have a quality backup after QB Jerry Neuheisel’s performance against Texas when he completed 23-of-30 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns. While he showed he can win, going on the road in conference play is much more difficult. If QB Brett Hundley (686 pass yards, 8.5 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT) is unable to go for the Bruins, they lose a guy at the quarterback position who can make plays with both his arm and his legs (74 rush yards, 1 TD).

If Neuheisel is playing quarterback, that means UCLA will have to get a big performance from RB Paul Perkins (304 rush yards, 4.8 YPC, 2 TD). Perkins also does a nice job of catching the ball out in the flat with nine grabs for 80 yards this season. The air attack of UCLA has been strong this year with 288.0 passing YPG (32nd in nation), but the ground game must continue to improve upon its 159.0 rushing YPG (73rd in FBS). Whoever is playing quarterback will have a talented wide receiver to throw to in Jordan Payton (19 catches, 266 yards, 1 TD). He is a big, athletic receiver that is not scared to go over the middle, and was the target that Neuheisel connected with to win the game with 3:00 remaining versus Texas.

Like the offense, there is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but this unit has had its struggles as well. The Bruins rank 60th in FBS in points allowed (24.0 PPG), but a big portion of that was given up against Memphis in a 42-35 win on Sept. 6. LB Myles Jack (26 tackles, 2 PD) is one of the elite players in all of the country, but he injured his ankle in the Texas game, and like with Hundley, the Bruins have not said what his status is for Thursday. LB Erik Kendricks (37 tackles, 1 TFL, 1 INT) is the leading tackler on the UCLA defense.

For the Sun Devils, who have the No. 7 scoring offense in the nation (47.0 PPG), adjusting to life without QB Taylor Kelly (625 pass yards, 168 rush yards, 7 total TD) won't be easy. Kelly is similar to Hundley in that he can make plays in all areas of the game.

While QB Mike Bercovici (14-for-24, 112 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in career) does not have a lot of experience, he does have one of the elite ball carriers in the country on his team in RB D.J. Foster (510 rush yards, 9.4 YPC, 5 TD). Foster is a threat every time he touches the ball, and he can also create a lot of havoc in the screen game as well.

At wide receiver, the Sun Devils have another one of the top FBS players in junior WR Jaelen Strong (19 catches, 266 yards, 2 TD). At 6-foot-3 and 212 pounds, he is a matchup nightmare at the position. He is too big and strong for corners, but ASU can line him in the slot, where he will run away from safeties. For Bercovici being inexperienced, he will look for Strong early and often in this game.

DB Damarious Randall (26 tackles) is the leading tackler on the 38th-ranked scoring defense (20.3 PPG) in the country. Like the Sun Devils offense, the defense is a unit that relies heavily on speed. DB Jordan Simone had an interception in the win against Colorado, and these guys will have to be ready to defend against Payton as one of their mates in the secondary, DB Ezekiel Bishop, may be out due to injury.

Check out more College Football Odds and Props at Sportsbook.ag!

College Football Betting News and Notes
Covers.com

Mora to wait on whether or not Hundley will start

UCLA head coach Jim Mora hasn't said much about the availability of his star quarterback Brett Hundley for their Thursday night matchup with Arizona State.

Mora did say he would push making the call on if Hundley would play or not this week as far out as he can. Hundley injured his non-throwing elbow in UCLA's 20-17 win over Texas on Sept. 13.

"Sometimes it goes right up to kickoff before you make that decision," Mora told reporters after practice on Tuesday. Hundley reportedly practiced on a limited basis.

UCLA is currently a 4.5-point favorite against the Sun Devils, but make sure to keep an eye on the line once Hundley's status is officially announced.

Over sizzling with Texas Tech playing on turf

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have a history of participating in high-scoring games on fieldturf, evidenced by the Over going 7-1 in their last eight games on the artificial surface.

Texas Tech will be playing on turf once again when they visit Oklahoma State Thursday evening. The Cowboys are presently 13.5-point home faves with a total of 70.5 for the matchup.

Arizona State-UCLA trending Over

When UCLA and Arizona State get together, high totals tend to follow. The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the two schools.

Arizona State hosts UCLA in college football action Thursday. The Bruins are currently four-point road faves with the total set at 60.5.

UCLA has history of covering vs. Arizona State

The UCLA Bruins have been solid against the spread when facing Arizona State, going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the two schools.

UCLA and the Sun Devils renew acquaintances in Tempe Thursday evening. The Bruins are currently 3-point road faves for the matchup with an O/U of 59.5.

Texas Tech posting ugly numbers ATS

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been creating headaches for their spread bettors recently, going 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games.

Texas Tech takes on Oklahoma State in Stillwater Thursday. The Cowboys are currently 13.5-point home faves with the total set at 70.5.

Trends show Georgia Southern covering with ease

Georgia Southern University has been a fantastic play against the spread recently, covering in each of their last eight games.

The Eagles host Appalachian State in college football action Thursday. Georgia Southern is currently 19.5-point home favorites with a total of 59.

Game of the Day: UCLA at Arizona State
Covers.com

UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (+4.5, 59.5)

Arizona State will have to get by without its starting quarterback when the No. 12 Sun Devils host No. 10 UCLA in a key Pac-12 contest on Thursday night. Taylor Kelly remains sidelined with a right foot injury suffered Sept. 13 against Colorado, the last time the Sun Devils played a game. UCLA might also have to go with a backup as quarterback Brett Hundley remains questionable with an injury to his non-throwing elbow, which occurred in a Sept. 13 win versus Texas.

In the absence of Kelly, Mike Bercovici will make his first collegiate start for Arizona State and he’s familiar to UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone, who recruited him when he was an assistant coach at Arizona State under former head coach Dennis Erickson. If Hundley is unable to play against the Sun Devils, the Bruins would likely start Jerry Neuheisel, son of former UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, but coach Jim Mora also indicated freshman Asiantii Woulard might get some action behind center. Hundley would certainly be missed, as he has completed 70.4 percent of his passes through three games, accounting for 686 yards and three touchdowns through the air.

LINE HISTORY: The Westgate LV Superbook opened the Sun Devils as 5.5-point home dogs, but that now sits +4.

INJURY REPORT: UCLA - QB Brett Hundley (Probable, elbow), OL Jake Brendel (Questionable, knee), OL Conor McDermott (Questionable, undisclosed). Arizona State - DE Ezekiel Bishop (Questionable, undisclosed).

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-90s with clear skies.

POWER RANKINGS: UCLA (-15.5) - Arizona State (-14.5) + home field (-3.0) = Arizona State -2

ABOUT UCLA (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): The Bruins have found little room in the run game this season but one of the few bright spots has been the play of Paul Perkins, who has rushed for 304 yards and three touchdowns this season. He posted the first 100-yard rushing game of his career in the win against Texas, finishing with 126 yards on 24 carries, and his bruising running style should wear on the Sun Devils. UCLA returned its top four rushers from last season but are still looking for Jordon James and Myles Jack to flash the elusiveness they showed a year ago.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): De’Marieya Nelson caught seven passes for 107 yards and two touchdowns last season but the 6-3, 224-pound senior is expected to see more action at linebacker than tight end against the Bruins. He had 16 tackles on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, forced two fumbles and recovered another. Nelson is also a key special-teams player for the Sun Devils, making him one of the rare three-way stars of college football.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Sun Devils last six games following a bye week.
* Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: 60 percent of wagers on Consensus are backing Arizona State.