College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, September 29th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
KANSAS (1 - 2) at TEXAS TECH (2 - 1) - 9/29/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points since 1992.
KANSAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.
KANSAS is 43-74 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
KANSAS is 43-74 ATS (-38.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
KANSAS is 80-112 ATS (-43.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
KANSAS is 50-75 ATS (-32.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 78-50 ATS (+23.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 78-50 ATS (+23.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TEXAS TECH is 111-80 ATS (+23.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS TECH is 1-1 against the spread versus KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS TECH is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT (2 - 2) at HOUSTON (4 - 0) - 9/29/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS vs. TEXAS TECH
Kansas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games
Texas Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas
Texas Tech is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas
CONNECTICUT vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Connecticut's last 10 games
Connecticut is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games
Kansas at Texas Tech
Kansas: 2-10 ATS as an underdog
Texas Tech: 14-4 ATS in home games after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game
Connecticut at Houston
Connecticut: 0-6 ATS off a home loss
Houston: 7-0 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game
NCAAF Week 5
Kansas lost its two I-A games by 16-37 points; allowing 534 YR with -8 turnover ratio. Jayhawks are 10-23-1 vs spread in last 34 games as a road dog. Texas Tech allowed 562 Y in last two games, 312+ PY in all three games; Tech won its last eight games with Kansas (1-2-1 vs spread last four). Jayhawks lost last four visits here, with three of four by 13 or less points. Red Raiders are 4-1 in last five games as a home favorite.
UConn (+10) was +4 in turnovers, upset Houston 20-17 LY– total yardage in game was 318-315 Houston. Huskies are 2-2 this year, with all four games decided by seven or less points- they’re 6-16 in last 22 games as a road underdog. Houston beat Oklahoma at home, won 40-16 at Cincinnati; they’re 5-9 vs spread in their last 14 games as a home favorite. Game opened at -23, has been bet up to -28, so not lot of support for UConn in this game.
Armadillosports.com
UConn at Houston
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
While there is a Big XII game on the schedule, there is certainly more intrigue in Thursday’s ESPN game between Connecticut and Houston. The Cougars have the country’s attention as a College Football Playoff candidate outside of the Power 5 conferences and this week’s Thursday night game is a matchup vs. Connecticut, the only team that beat Houston last season.
Match-up: Connecticut Huskies at Houston Cougars
Venue: TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 29, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Houston -28, Over/Under 50
Last Meeting: 2015, at Connecticut (+10) 20, Houston 17
Tom Herman has coached Houston in 18 games with only one loss. That loss came last November at Connecticut as a 10-0 Houston squad fell short 20-17 as a road favorite. The caveat is that Greg Ward, Jr. did not start at quarterback with an injured ankle. He did appear for the final series after his replacement Kyle Postma was also injured late in the game, eventually throwing an interception on Houston’s final drive. The statistics in that game were quite even, but Houston had four turnovers alhtough the Cougars also did score on a kickoff return touchdown.
Houston has opened the 2016 season at 4-0 with the big opening week statement win over Oklahoma. The Cougars also won in primetime two weeks ago at Cincinnati in a much closer game than the 40-16 final indicated. This will be the first true FBS home game for the Cougars as the opener was at NRG Stadium and the home opener was a 42-0 win over FCS Lamar. Houston is currently ranked #6 in the AP Poll and Herman is certainly garnering attention as a candidate for the recent opening at LSU, though those conversations seem unlikely to take place at this point in the season.
Connecticut is 2-2 this season coming off a solid 6-7 season that featured a bowl bid last season, the program’s first postseason trip since 2010. The Huskies are 0-1 in AAC play losing at Navy, but they split two games vs. ACC competition the past two weeks at home, beating Virginia but losing to Syracuse. All four games for Connecticut have been single-score games with lower scoring as the season high output for the Huskies is just 24 points, actually a touchdown increase over last season’s scoring average of just 17.2 points per game.
Connecticut has been out-gained in all three of its FBS games as the Huskies had a 104 yard deficit vs. Virginia despite the win. Bob Diaco is known as a defensive coach as Notre Dame’s former defensive coordinator now in his third season in Storrs. This season’s defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play this season, but only 3.8 yards per rush while holding opposing quarterbacks below 60 percent completions. It was the defense that keyed the home upset in this matchup last season, but Connecticut is just 2-9 S/U on the road since Diaco took over the program.
Houston’s offense has deserved attention with almost 45 points per game this season, but that average is a bit inflated with 106 points vs. FCS Lamar and FBS bottom-feeder Texas State. Three touchdowns also came on defense and special teams in the notable wins over Oklahoma and Cincinnati to boost the numbers as well.
It has really been Houston’s defense that has catapulted the program into the national spotlight, allowing just 229 yards per game this season with incredible numbers against the run, allowing just 1.5 yards per carry and 37 rushing yards per game. Run defense was a strong area for the defense last season as well, finishing the season allowing just 3.2 yards per carry allowed and more impressively not once allowing a team over a 3.9 yards per rush average for the game in 14 games that included matchups vs. strong rushing teams like Louisville, Cincinnati, Navy, and Florida State.
With the running game likely offering little support, Connecticut will need to make some plays in the air, though last season the Huskies had just one 300 yards passing game all season. At quarterback for Connecticut is junior Bryant Shirreffs, who has modest numbers this season, posting a very similar pace to last season’s production figures. He has completed nearly 67 percent of his passes after barely topping 60 percent last season, but he also has as many interceptions as touchdowns through four weeks.
Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. has won 17 straight games that he has started and he’ll certainly go down as an all-time great at Houston, joining Andre Ware, David Klingler, Kevin Kolb, and Case Keenum. His statistics are modest this season and he didn’t play in the win over Lamar as prospects as a Heisman Trophy candidate are minimal even with some early season attention. With just five touchdowns passes, he won’t pass the records of those highly prolific passers, but he is leading a team that can have a historic season on the national stage, with avenging last season’s only loss the next step.
Historical Trends: Connecticut is 8-25 S/U and 10-22-1 ATS in road games since 2010, including 2-9 S/U and 3-8 ATS under Diaco since 2014. Connecticut is just 7-18 ATS as a road underdog since 2010 though going back to 2000 the Huskies are 13-8 ATS as an underdog of 20 or more points, though three of those four covers came at home.
Houston has thrived in the road underdog role with incredible recent ATS results but at home the numbers are modest, going 20-7 S/U and just 14-17 ATS at home since 2012. Houston is 9-0 S/U under Herman at home but just 4-5 ATS. Houston is also just 5-10 ATS as a home favorite since 2014, suffering three S/U home favorite losses in the 2014 season under Tony Levine. Houston is 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more since 2009, though just 2-3 ATS under Herman in that heavy favorite role while going 0-3 ATS in Herman’s home games at that price.
T-Tech made heavy 'chalk'
By Sportsbook.ag
Week 5 of the college football season opens up with two big favorites, as the 6th ranked Houston Cougars host Connecticut as -28.5 point favorites, while Texas Tech is favored by the same number in a home game vs. Kansas.
These aren't the most intriguing games college football could open up Week 5 with as conference play hits full swing across the land, but these two heavy favorites will be a popular bet on Thursday night.
Will both of them cover, or will one of these ugly underdogs get to the betting window as a winner? That will all be determined late Thursday night, but for now let's break down the Big 12 matchup in Texas.
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Texas Tech (-28.5); Total set at 81
At 2-1 SU and ATS to start the 2016 campaign, Texas Tech has to be pleased with their start. They look to have the best offense in the entire Big 12 Conference, scoring 55 or more points in all three of their games so far. The problem is, their defense gives up plenty of points themselves with 113 points allowed over their last two games – the only two vs. FBS competition.
Those defensive issues will have to be somewhat fixed by the time the Red Raiders reach the meat of their schedule later on with games vs. West Virginia, Oklaoma, and TCU to close out October, but it shouldn't be a huge concern here vs. Kansas. The Jayhawks simply don't have nearly enough weapons to match Texas Tech on the scoreboard if this game becomes a shootout. That's not the style of play Kansas will be looking to employ here and that should be of note to astute bettors.
If Kansas wants any chance of pulling off the huge upset, they'll need to shorten the game. That means staying ahead of the chains, bleeding the clock with long, extended drives full of running plays to keep Texas Tech's offense on the sidelines.
That method should be possible with Texas Tech allowing 206.7 yards on the ground per game this year, so look for the Jayhawks to run the ball more often than they have so far. It likely won't work too well as this game should be a SU loss for Kansas, but the point spread is always the great equalizer. That hook on the four TD line might very well come into play for side bettors.
Yet, it's the total that is more attractive to me as it's tough to see this number of 81 get surpassed, even with the Red Raiders 55+ points per game. The fact is, the only other time Texas Tech was laying more than two TD's this year, was in their opener against FCS school Stephen F. Austin when they won 69-17. The 86 points put up was a lot, but it still snuck 'under' the 87 total and I believe we see a similar result in terms of the total here.
For one, even though they love to play fast, Texas Tech will eventually take their foot off the gas when they get up big and bleed the clock away. Combine that with Kansas' likely strategy of shortening the game with their own rushing attack and bettors might not have enough time left in the game to get 82+ points.
The last two meetings between these two programs have been relatively tight 10 and 13-point games, but both also didn't have more than 55 points scored. In fact, although there have been some recent 'overs' in this rivalry, only once since they started playing every year back in 2008 have there been more than 81 points scored and that was a 63-21 Texas Tech win in '08 when WR Michael Crabtree was tearing up the Big 12.
Kansas is on a 4-14 O/U run in their last 18 games away from home, and have a 9-23 O/U run going after failing to cover a spread. The last thing the Jayhawks want this game to be is a back-and-forth shootout between the two offenses because Kansas will lose that game every single time. But with a strong likelihood of Texas Tech establishing that big lead early on and then running out clock, this contest will not see more than 80 points scored.
Take Under 81 points.
NCAAF Game of the Day: Connecticut at Houston
By Covers.com
Connecticut Huskies at No. 7 Houston Cougars (-28, 51)
Seventh-ranked Houston gets a chance to avenge its only loss from last year when it hosts Connecticut in an American Athletic Conference game Thursday night. Both starting quarterbacks missed the majority of last year's meeting - a 20-17 UConn home victory- but return healthy for the rematch.
Houston's Greg Ward Jr., who didn't play at UConn because of an ankle injury until backup Kyle Postma was injured late in the fourth quarter, has won 17 straight as the Cougars' starter. The Cougars, looking to begin 5-0 in back-to-back seasons for the first time in program history, recorded at least 40 points and 500 total yards in three straight games. Bryant Shirreffs, who left last year's game with a concussion on the second series, helped the Huskies overcome slow starts in all four games. UConn has been outscored 31-0 in the first quarter this season before having all four games decided by seven or fewer points.
LINE HISTORY: Houston has drawn heavy chalk in this AAC matchup, hitting the board as 27.5-point home favorites and have been bet up to -28 since then. The total has also been bet up, going from its opening number of 50.5 to the current number of 51. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The majority of action on Houston, where we have almost 80 percent of the wagers, is from the square contingent. But we've had a couple of sharps hit the Cougars as well, which prompted the bump two points to -30. It feels like this could come down before it goes up." - Odds consultant Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu.
INJURY REPORT:
Connecticut - RB N. Hopkins (probable Thursday, leg), OL B. Vechery (probable Thursday, leg), OL T. Rutherford (probable Thursday, undisclosed), LB J. Hicks (questionable Thursday, leg), OL T. Hopkins (questionable Thursday, leg), LB O. Stephens (questionable Thursday, leg), OL D. Oak (out Thursday, undisclosed).
Houston - CB B. Wilson (questionable Thursday, leg), OL M. Long (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), OL A. Fontana (questionable Thursday, elbow), RB M. Car (out Thursday, knee).
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in Houston. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the mid to low 70's for the game. There could be a seven to eight mile per hour wind blowing across the field from north to south.
ABOUT CONNECTICUT (2-2, 0-3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Shirreffs threw for 819 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions and rushed for another score. Noel Thomas Jr. (40 receptions, 388 yards, one TD) has nearly half of UConn's catches (81) and receiving yards (861) after a 14-catch performance against Syracuse. The Huskies were stopped at the goal line in losses to Navy (as time expired) and Syracuse (late in the fourth quarter), and got late game-winning field goals from Bobby Puyol (5-of-5 in field goals and 10-of-10 on extra points) in their two wins.
ABOUT HOUSTON (4-0, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Ward (936 passing yards, five touchdowns and 113 rushing yards, three TDs) leads a balanced offense that's averaging 44.8 points. Senior linebacker Steven Taylor (tied for second nationally with 5.5 total sacks) leads a unit that is ranked first in the nation in rushing defense (37 yards), fourth in scoring defense (10.5 points) and fifth in total defense (228.8 yards). The Cougars held six straight opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, including three straight (Texas State, 33; Cincinnati, 30; Lamar, 15) to 33 or fewer.
TRENDS:
* Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus a team with a winning record.
* Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Connecticut's last four games following a SU loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Houston's last seven home games.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are having no problem laying all those points with the home team, as a whopping 76 percent of wagers are backing Houston. As for the total, an even bigger majority is backing the Over, with 81 percent of wagers on it.