FAU at East Carolina
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
College football and ESPN concede that the NFL will dominate Thursday night with the big opening night game between the Ravens and the Broncos. There is a college game being played Thursday on the new FS1, though this Conference USA opener is sure to get little national attention. Here is a look at the Thursday game between Florida Atlantic and East Carolina.
Match-up: Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina Pirates
Venue: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina (grass)
Time/TV: 7:30 PM ET - FS1
Line: East Carolina -21, Over/Under 54
Last Meeting: None
East Carolina is one of the holdovers and one of the 2013 favorites in the new-look Conference USA. After winning last week against Old Dominion, conference play will start up Thursday night before two big non-conference challenges against prominent ACC teams to close out September. East Carolina finished 8-5 last season despite losing its bowl game and head coach Ruffin McNeill has a veteran team back in action for his fourth season leading the Pirates.
Last week, the Pirates won 52-38 at home against Old Dominion, a team transitioning to the FBS level. The Monarchs won 11 games last season, so it was certainly a decent opening test for East Carolina and the Pirates are a bigger favorite this week despite this being a conference game. East Carolina is a pass-first team led by junior QB Shane Carden and after throwing for over 3,100 yards last season, Carden tossed for 447 yards and five touchdowns in the opener. He completed over 85 percent of his passes, which is even more impressive considering there were 54 attempts last week.
East Carolina was really never able to pull away from Old Dominion until the fourth quarter, going up 49-31 after consecutive scores. The defense surrendered 460 yards mostly through the air and this was a team that allowed almost 32 points per game last season. Even with nine starters back on defense, the Pirates will still give up a lot of points given the fast pace of the offense and the number of plays both teams will run in most East Carolina games. Both teams had 26 first downs in the game and this will be an important game for an East Carolina team that failed to win the C-USA East last season despite going 7-1 in conference play as they lost the tiebreaker with UCF, a team that has since departed for the new AAC.
Florida Atlantic earned a narrow cover last Friday night in a 34-6 loss at Miami. The Owls were out-gained by an over 2:1 margin, allowing over 500 yards with Miami rushing for 303 yards on 8.0 yards per carry. Florida Atlantic does have an experienced defense and the Owls hung within two scores until late in the third quarter last week. FAU has an experienced secondary and actually held opponents to just 55 percent passing last season, so the style of play from the Pirates may be easier for the Owls to handle compared with the rushing attack that was displayed by the Hurricanes.
Florida Atlantic could again struggle on offense however, even going against a far less talented defense. In his first start, sophomore QB Jaquez Johnson was mostly ineffective, but the Owls did have some success moving the ball, completing 18 first downs in the game despite totaling only six points.
While the rushing numbers for the Owls were not impressive, Florida Atlantic stuck with the ground game for 43 attempts, eventually netting 133 total yards and that conservative approach is probably wise as the Pirates would have a big edge in a shootout. The Owls only committed three penalties and had just one turnover, despite the inexperience at QB and on the offensive line so there were some promising signs in a game that Florida Atlantic knew they had little chance in.
Florida Atlantic won just three games last season and after a run of success in 2007 and 2008 under Howard Schnellenberger, this program has been in a rebuilding mode as head coach Carl Pelini starts his second season. Moving to Conference USA will not make things easier and the first game in league play will come against one of the top teams in the division. This is the second of three straight road games to open the season for the Owls and this is a program that has lost 14 of the last 28 games by 20 or more points.
Line Movement: The line opened at -20.5 before dipping down to -20. The total has opened at 54.
Florida Atlantic Historical Trends: Florida Atlantic is 14-23-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2004, but they have covered in six consecutive games in that role. The Owls are 24-32-1 ATS on the road since 2005, but there has likewise been a recent uptick with seven consecutive covers for the Owls in road games, including last week's narrow cover. Florida Atlantic was 6-1 ATS last season as a road underdog covering in all five instances when getting at least 14 points. FAU has just one S/U road win in the last two seasons however.
East Carolina Historical Trends: East Carolina has been a solid home performer, going 33-20 ATS at home since 2004, including going 16-11 ATS as a home favorite since 2006. The Pirates are 13-7 as a double-digit favorite since 2001, but they have just one ATS win as a favorite of 20 or more going back to the early '80s, though it is not a common role for the team. The Pirates were 5-1 S/U and 4-2 ATS at home last season and Coach McNeill is 12-6 S/U at home in his three plus seasons in Greenville. East Carolina has not been this steep of a favorite since 2002.
Thursday's NCAAF action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
With the NFL season opener stealing the spotlight, Thursday's two college football contests are in the dark. That could mean added value with football bettors looking elsewhere for action. Here's a quick look at this pair of games:
FAU Owls at East Carolina Pirates (-20.5, 54)
The Owls expect to have freshman QB Greg Hankerson back under center after he left FAU’s 34-6 loss to Miami with a rib injury. Hankerson fell on the football while being tackled, leaving passing duties to sophomore Jaquez Johnson. Johnson, who started the game and split time with Hankerson, was 11 for 20 for 83 yards passing and added 30 yards rushing. Owls offensive coordinator Brian Wright will alternate between the two Thursday.
East Carolina won’t be rolling out the welcome mat for FAU in its first C-USA game. The Pirates put up 52 points in a warm-up win over Old Dominion in Week 1 (52-38) but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites. Quarterback Shane Carden set a school record with 447 yards passing (ECU had 481 total yards of offense) in that win, finding WR Justin Hardy for 191 of those gains and WR Davon Grayson for three touchdowns on four catches.
Key betting stat: Over is 6-1 in Pirates’ last seven games overall.
Sacramento State at Arizona State Sun Devils (-37)
Arizona State and Sacramento State will be looking for their first points of the season Thursday night, but only the host Sun Devils will be playing their opener. The FCS' Hornets are coming off a 24-0 loss at San Jose State, and the opposition doesn't get any easier with Arizona State. The Sun Devils are looking to build upon an 8-5 record in coach Todd Graham's inaugural season in the desert, and with 17 returning starters Arizona State plans to contend with nationally-ranked USC and UCLA in the Pac-12 South Division.
Of those returning starters, quarterback Taylor Kelly and defensive tackle Will Sutton stand out. Kelly had a breakout campaign as a sophomore last season, passing for 3,039 yards and 29 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Sutton is the reigning Pac-12 defensive player of the year after recording 63 tackles and 13 sacks in a dominant junior year.
Key betting stat: Over is 7-1 in Sun Devils' last eight Thursday games.
NCAAF Week 2
East Carolina gave up 370 yards passing in 52-38 win over ODU in its opener; Pirates are 16-10 as home favorites since 2006, 6-4 under Ruffin. ECU has junior QB (13 starts) and experienced OL (88 starts). Florida Atlantic lost its best return guy to grades; they're 7-1 as road dogs after covering in 34-6 (+31) loss at Miami last week (TY 250-503). Owls' QB has only two starts, its OL only 28- they gave up 303 yards rushing at Miami. ECU better not look ahead to Virginia Tech game next week.
Armadillosports.com
FAU at East Carolina
By Bovada.lv
In one of only two games on the college football schedule, our opening free football picks offering for Week 2 involves a matchup between two new conference rivals in Conference USA as the Florida Atlantic Owls travel to face the East Carolina Pirates.
The contest is the first-ever meeting between the two schools, with Florida Atlantic having taken a step up in competition from the Sun Belt Conference. That disparity in competition is one reason the Pirates are -20 home favorites according to BOVADA, with a total of 54 for the evening.
In the Owls’ first game Friday night, they struggled as expected against the Miami Hurricanes, falling 34-6, but they did cover the huge -31 pointspread and going below the 52.5 total. On the other side, East Carolina needed a comeback to win 52-38 over new D-IA team Old Dominion, failing to cover the -15 Las Vegas betting line, but easily going over the huge 75.5 total.
That Under in Florida Atlantic’s game has been a regular happening the past two years, extending a dominating number in that category. Over the past 23 games, there have been 18 winning plays for those sports handicappers who chose to wager on the Under.
The first half of the season has been especially big for Under players in Owl games since 2011, with 10 of those 12 games also cashing their winning tickets.
On the Pirate side of the ledger, last week’s game was out of the ordinary of late for the team, which now has a 5-1 mark in favor of the Under over the previous six games.
Two other factors also point toward the Under in this game when it comes to the fortunes of East Carolina. The first shows that the Under has been the correct play seven of the last times the Pirates are coming off an ATS loss. The second uncovers the fact that the last seven times the team has played a school with a losing record, the game has gone Under five times.
Going off each team’s previous game also provides even more ammunition for the Under bettors. In the FAU loss at Miami, the Hurricanes ran up 504 yards of total offense, including 304 on the ground. The last 14 times the Owls have allowed more than 200 yards rushing in a game, the next contest has a 10-3-1 record in favor of the Under.
For East Carolina, the fact that they finished with less than 100 yards rushing last Saturday is significant for tonight’s total. That’s because in the last 35 games that has happened, the next game went Under 24 times.
With all of the above data in its favor, the easy call here is to
Play East Carolina-Florida Atlantic Under 54