Troy at Florida International: What Bettors Need to Know
By David Payne
Covers.com
Troy at Florida International (-6, 55.5)
Fading Florida International hosts dreadful Troy in a Sun Belt showdown that only a bettor could love.
The Golden Panthers are coming off a 34-16 loss at Arkansas State last Tuesday and have lost three of four, failing to cover in each.
The 2-4 Trojans are skidding, too. They’ve lost two straight and have covered the spread only once this season.
FIU was an 8-point underdog at Troy last year, but racked up a school record 668 yards in a 52-35 drubbing of the Trojans. Troy’s defense is worse this season.
THE LINE
The Las Vegas Wynn opened Florida International as a 5-point favorite on Sunday afternoon, but the line had jumped to as high as 6.5 early Monday.
FIU has not fared well when favored, covering the number in only one of its last six as the favorite.
STATISCIALLY SPEAKING
Throughout his 21-year career at Troy, coach Larry Blakeney has put together overachieving teams. But this year’s Trojans are disappointing. Defensive struggles are the biggest reason why.
Troy ranks 113th in total defense, allowing 460 yards and nearly 35 points per game against a schedule that’s 91st in the Sagarin Ratings. The Trojans rank 90th or worse in 10 of the 13 statistical categories the NCAA lists on its team pages.
Needless to say, Florida International has a statistical advantage almost across the board. The Golden Panthers, though, have slumped since getting off to a 3-0 start that included solid wins at Louisville and against Central Florida.
FIU is balanced offensively, but not overly explosive. The Golden Panthers were held to less than 300 yards against Arkansas State. That sounds bad, until you notice that Troy’s offense had just 126 yards in last week’s 38-10 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.
INJURY REPORT
Neither team is reporting any impactful injuries.
WEATHER
Forecast call for late showers with a 14 mph ENE breeze at FIU Stadium.
TRENDS
Troy has covered the spread in five straight Tuesday night games.
Troy had been an ATS dynamo since joining the Sun Belt in 2004. Entering this season, the Trojans were 29-21-1 in conference play. But Troy has been trending down as of late, covering only two of its last nine Sun Belt games.
The Under is 9-2-1 in the last 11 FIU games against a team with a losing record.
Home-field has been overrated in this series, with the road team covering in five of the last six meetings.
NCAAF Week 9
Underdogs covered last four FIU-Troy games; Panthers (+8.5) pounded Troy State 52-35 LY, its first win in last six series games; average total in last three series games is 72.7. FIU lost three of its last four games since upsetting Central Florida, a win that doesn't look as good now, given UCF's recent struggles. Troy allowed 31-38 points in losing its last two games, both as faves (of 6.5/9.5 points). FIU allowed 17 or less points in all four of its wins, 31+ in its three losses. Trojans are 0-3 on road, with losses by 24-10-14 points. Sun Belt favorites are 5-8 against the spread, 4-7 if spread is 6+ points.
TROY (2 - 4) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (4 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TROY vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Troy is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Florida International
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Troy's last 21 games on the road
Florida International is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida International's last 6 games
TROY at FLA INTERNATIONAL
TROY: 0-5 ATS off SU loss as favorite
FLA INTERNATIONAL: 0-6 ATS off BB Unders