College Football Betting News And Notes Tuesday, December 29

Armed Forces Bowl

Cal lost four games in row after a 5-0 start; they allowed 477 yards on ground in 44-28 loss at Oregon Nov 7- they lost last four away games. Bears are in first bowl since 2011; their last bowl win was in '08. Air Force is 3-2 SU in last five bowls, covering last three as bowl dog; Falcons are 4-1 as an underdog this year; they allowed 33+ points in four of their five losses. Last seven years, Mountain West teams are 6-5 vs Pac-12 in bowls- they're 4-1 in bowls so far this year. Dogs won this bowl four of last six years; four of last five stayed under the total.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Baylor blew a huge lead late in 42-41 bowl loss to Michigan State LY; Bears are 2-3 in last five bowls- dogs covered four of the five games. Baylor is without its top two QBs; #3 QB Johnson is 15-38 passing, but one of his games was played in awful weather- they lost three of last four games after 8-0 start. North Carolina is 2-3 in last five bowls (faves 4-1 vs spread); UNC lost its first/last game, won 11 in row in between- they allowed 300+ rushing yds in three of last five games, a red flag. ACC teams won this bowl last five years, with favorites covering three of last four. Last six Russell Bowls stayed under.

Arizona Bowl

Rare bowl game between teams in same league, though they did not meet this season; Rams won last two meetings, 38-17/31-24. Nevada lost last three bowls by 7-1-13 points; they're 3-4 vs bowl teams, losing last two by 4-17 points. Colorado State is 2-3 in last five bowls, allowing 35+ in all five- they weren't favored in any of them (avg total, 72). Rams won last four games to get here- they gave up 200+ rushing yards in seven of last nine games, are 2-4 vs bowl teams this year. State scored 28+ points in all seven of its wins; they're 0-5 scoring less than 28. This is first Arizona Bowl.

Texas Bowl

Texas Tech allowed 300+ rushing yards in five of its eight games; they gave up 317 to I-AA Sam Houston in its opener, all of which is good news for Leonard Fournette, who struggled vs defenses in SEC. Tech won its last four bowls, scoring 39.3 ppg; they were favored in three of them. LSU scored less than 20 points in its last four games thanks to terrible QB play. LSU lost three of last four bowls, scoring 18.3 ppg. Over last six years, SEC teams are 9-2 SU vs Big X teams. Favorites covered three of last four Texas Bowls; five of last six stayed under total. Expect a lot of Fournette here.

Armadillosports.com

NCAAF: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

North Carolina vs. Baylor

North Carolina seeks a school-record 12th victory when Tar Heels take on injury-plagued Baylor Bears in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Tar Heels balanced offense putting up 40.9 PPG spearheaded by senior QB Marquise Williams tossing 21 TD passes, 11 scores on the ground and RB Elijah Hood running for 17 majors should have little trouble topping Baylor suffering a major blow to its top ranked offense without QB Jarrett Stidham (12TD), WR Corey Coleman (20TD), RB Shock Linwood (10TD). Consider laying the small number (-3). Tar Heels on a school-record mission improve it's 6-1 ATS streak vs a team with a winning record.

Tuesday's Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag

AIR FORCE FALCONS (8-5) vs. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (7-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: California -7, Total: 68

Two offenses with contrasting styles will clash in Fort Worth on Tuesday with run-oriented Air Force and pass-happy California meeting in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons carry the football an average of 59 times per game for 322 YPG (3rd in FBS), while the Bears throw the pigskin 43 times per contest for 369 YPG (5th in nation). Although Air Force has a better defense statistically, the team has surrendered 33.0 PPG and 441 total YPG over the past four contests. California's defense is even more suspect, having allowed 40 points on four separate occasions and failing to force a turnover in three straight games. The Falcons are playing in their eighth bowl game in the past nine years, and are 4-2 in the past six bowls, but the Bears haven’t won a postseason game since 2008.

Both schools have highly-rated betting trends with Air Force going 6-0 ATS this season after a game where it committed less than two turnovers, and Cal falling in the category of teams going 53-23 ATS (70%) in the past 10 years after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in three straight games, returning 8+ offensive starters against an opponent returning five or less defensive starters.

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On the injury front, the Falcons have no new injuries since losing RBs D.J. Johnson (hamstring) and Shayne Davern (knee) for the season in late November. But the Bears will likely be without four players in RB Lonny Powell (personal) and LBs Devante Downs (foot), Michael Barton (knee) and Hamilton Anoa'i (undisclosed), while two others are questionable -- WR Jack Austin (foot) and DB Griffin Piatt (collarbone).

The Air Force offense has been strong this season with 33.6 PPG on 453 total YPG (6.4 yards per play), and has a whopping 7.4 yards per play in the past three contests. The team chooses to run the football 83% of the time, which leads to a hefty 32:26 time of possession and 322 rushing YPG on 5.5 YPC. The air attack produces only 131 YPG, but does so on an eye-popping 11.0 YPA. Senior QB Karson Roberts has 10.8 YPA despite completing only 52% of his throws for 1,446 yards, 9 TD and 10 INT. He is also the team's second-leading rusher with 674 yards on 4.4 YPC with nine touchdowns.

The Falcons top ball carrier is junior RB Jacobi Owens (1,009 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 6 TD) who has rushed for at least 133 yards in four of the past seven games, including a season-high 156 in the MWC title game loss at San Diego State. Four other Air Force players have rushed for at least four touchdowns this year, as the team has amassed 42 scores on the ground.

Defensively, the Falcons have held opponents to 23.2 PPG on 337 total YPG, but those numbers are way up in the past three games (34.7 PPG, 442 total YPG). They are on the field for only 27:23, which is a big reason why they allow only 147 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 190 passing YPG on 7.1 YPA. Air Force doesn't have a lot of playmakers on the unit, having forced just three turnovers in the past five games combined, and the Bears have committed just three giveaways in the past four contests.

California's offense has racked up 36.5 PPG on 524 total YPG this season and the numbers are through the roof in the past three contests with 41.3 PPG on 645 total YPG. While the team throws the football 56% of the time, resulting in 368 YPG on 8.6 YPA, it also has the ability to run the pigskin with 156 YPG on 4.6 YPC.

Junior QB Jared Goff has completed 64% of his passes for 4,252 yards (8.6 YPA), 37 TD and 13 INT this year, which includes a season-high 542 yards in the last game versus Arizona State. In the past four contests, Goff has thrown 15 TD and only two picks.

While WR Bryce Treggs (813 rec yds, 6 TD) is the only Bears player with 700 receiving yards on the roster, five others have gained at least 460 yards through the air. This includes WR Kenny Lawler (47 rec, 583 yds), who leads the club with 10 touchdown grabs. But Treggs has been the main man lately with 432 receiving yards and 3 TD over his past four games. On the ground, junior RB Khalfani Muhammad (539 rush yds, 6.9 YPC, 1 TD) is the team's rushing leader, but sophomore RB Vic Enwere (486 rush yds, 5.0 YPC) has found the end zone seven times.

The Cal defense allows a beefy 30.2 PPG on 455 total YPG this season, but those numbers have spiked to 36.2 PPG on 508 total YPG in six games away from home where the club is 2-4 (SU and ATS). Neither the front seven, which allows 203 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC, nor the secondary (252 passing YPG allowed, 7.8 YPA) has played very well this year. Although the Bears have forced only three turnovers in the second half of the season (after 21 takeaways in the first half), the Falcons have six games with multiple giveaways this year, including two of the past three.

Tuesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

California vs. Air Force

The California Golden Bears (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) will meet the Air Force Falcons (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Tex., and each would love to finish their season on a high note after limping to the finish line after hot stretches.

Cal kicked off its regular season with five consecutive wins, serving notice that they are back to relevance after a few down seasons. They opened with a pair of conference wins over the Washington schools before road setbacks at Utah and UCLA in the middle of October. That was the start of a four-game losing streak which also included a home loss to USC, and a road setback to Oregon. In the grand scheme of things, losses to four bowl teams is not a huge embarrassment, and they were able to rout Oregon State Nov. 14 to stem the tide of losing and become bowl eligible. Another loss at Stanford in 'The Big Game' set them to 6-5, but they rallied again in a 48-46 win over Arizona State in the season finale to finish on a high note. However, Cal does enter this game just 1-5 ATS in their past six overall, and they have failed to cover in their past three outings away from Berkeley.

Air Force started out 3-3 SU/ATS this season, beating the teams they should and losing to teams perceived to be better. No real surprises. Then, beginning Oct. 24 they were on a five-game win and cover tear to set them up for a potential run to the Mountain West Championship Game. However, a shocking straight-up loss as an 11-point favorite at New Mexico Nov. 28, and a 27-24 setback at San Diego State humbled them, and that's why they're in Fort Worth rather than playing for bigger prizes. Still, USAFA finished the season 6-1 ATS in their final seven, and they have covered three of their past four away from Colorado Springs.

The Falcons continue to find success in the triple-option, and QB Karson Roberts did enough with his arm to keep defenses somewhat honest, too. He threw for 1,446 yards with nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions while also running for 674 yards (4.4 yards per attempt) and a team-high tying nine scores. RB D.J. Johnson (ankle) suffered an ankle injury in November, and he appears unlikely to suit up. He posted 425 yards with six touchdowns. But RB Jacobi Owens starred for the Falcs, posting 1,013 yards on the ground with six touchdowns to more than fill the void. RB Timothy McVey has also stepped up, tying Roberts with nine rushing touchdowns while running for 9.1 yards per attempt. Even RBs Shayne Davern and Benton Washington found the end zone four times, so the Falcons have so many interchangeable parts.

While Cal also has a strong offense, it is a contrast in styles. It all starts and stops with QB Jared Goff and the passing game. Goff threw for 4,247 yards with 37 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while completing 64.2 percent of his attempts. Goff will not be confused with Roberts, or any other dual-threat QB, as he amassed eight yards rushing on the season with no scores. It's strictly all pass, all the time. His biggest weapons are WR Kenny Lawler, who led the team with 10 touchdowns on 583 yards receiving, and WR Bryce Troggs with a team-best 813 receiving yards, 19.8 yards per catch and six scores. WRs Maurice Harris and Darius Powe each chipped in with six touchdowns, too, so needless to say Cal is deep and can go to four- or five-receiver sets without missing much.

Cal is looking to turn things around after setbacks in each of their past two bowl games, both in San Diego. They lost to Texas in their last appearance in 2011 in the Holiday Bowl, 21-10, and they were dumped in the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl by Utah, 37-27. Their last appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl was a 42-36, and it came against Air Force back on Dec. 31, 2007. NFLers Justin Forsett and DeSean Jackson starred for the Bears that day. Who will step up this year?

Air Force has a rich football history, and they have been a frequent bowler, too. Troy Calhoun has led the Falcons to a bowl game in eight of his first nine seasons in the Springs, making like legendary coach Fisher DeBerry. While the Falcons haven't finished in the AP Top 25 since 1998, they have been competitive and a tough assignment in bowl games. They have won three of their past five bowl appearances, including a win over Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl last season. However, they are just 1-3 in their past four Armed Forces Bowls, with their only win coming in 2009 against Houston.

Cal enters as a touchdown favorite, or 6 1/2 points, depending on your shop. Cal is 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record, and they're 0-4 ATS in their past four neutral-site games and 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games. The Bears are also just 4-14 ATS in their past 18 games on grass.

Air Force steams in 6-1 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five bowl games. They're also 8-2 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning record, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 on a grass surface.

The 'under' is 7-2 in Cal's past nine, but the 'over' is 7-2 in their past nine neutral-site battles and 6-2 in their past eight bowl games. For USAFA, the 'under' is 12-5 in their past 17 non-conference tilts, but 4-0 in their past four overall and 4-0 in their past four against teams with a winning overall record.

ESPN will have the telecast at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

North Carolina vs. Baylor

North Carolina (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) heads to the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Fla. looking to secure its first 12-win season in school history. They're just happy the game isn't being played in Charlotte, as they're 0-2 SU/ATS at Bank of America Stadium this season, and 11-0 SU/8-3 ATS elsewhere.

Baylor (9-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) started the season as one of the top teams in the nation with designs on a national title. However, injuries really hurt the Bears down the stretch, especially at key positions, and now they simply will have to settle for a 10-win season if they can be successful in their bowl game.

The Bears lost QB Seth Russell (neck) to a season-ending neck injury in late October. QB Jarrett Stidham (ankle) stepped in and had a win in his initial start, but he too was lost to an ankle injury which leaves him doubtful for the bowl game. That means QB Chris Johnson (concussion), who was also knocked out down the stretch, will need to lead this team. He is probable to play Tuesday. If he does play, he will be without WR Corey Coleman, who is out with a sports hernia. The good news for the Bears is that top rushing threat RB Shock Linwood (ankle) is expected to be ready.

Johnson and Lynx Hawthorne are the signal callers left standing, and neither was particularly impressive when given the chance. Johnson completed just 15 of his 38 pass attempts for 220 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, while Hawthorne tosses 10 times on 22 attempts for just 64 yards, no scores and two picks. The lack of a polished passing game might mean more leaning on Linwood, who rambled for 1,329 yards and 10 scores, averaging 6.8 yards per attempt. RB Johnny Jefferson also stepped up with 701 rushing yards and five scores, while change-of-pace Devin Chafin punched eight in for score. The team misses Russell, who had six rushing touchdowns in addition to his heroics in the pass game, but they have plenty of other ball carriers.

For the Tar Heels, QB Marquise Williams really established himself as a leader this season, posting 2,825 yards passing with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions while also running for 867 yards and 11 scores. If he falters, backup QB MitchTrubisky is more than capable. WR Mack Hollins led the team with 711 receiving yards and eight scores, and WR Ryan Switzer managed 664 yards with 51 grabs and six touchdowns. WR Quinshad Davis is also a threat, posting 11.8 yards per catch with four scores. They can go four-deep with WR Bug Howard, too, as he posted 17.2 yards per grab with 446 yards and three scores.

The Tar Heels posted 26 or more points in each of their past 12 games, and they averaged 47.4 points per game in their final five outings. They needed the points, as their defense reverted back to their 2014 form, allowing an average of 31.6 points per game during the five-game span. That's not good news against a Baylor offense which scores like a video game.

UNC hasn't had great success in bowl games lately, going just 2-5 in their past seven postseason showings dating back to 2001. For what it's worth, the Tar Heels are 6-2 all-time in bowl games in the state of Florida, although their last postseason appearance in the Sunshine State was back in the 1998 Gator Bowl.

Baylor hasn't had nearly as long of a bowl history as some, but they've made up for lost time in recent seasons. Tuesday will mark their sixth consecutive bowl, by far the longest in school history. They have lost each of their past two outings, suffering a 52-42 setback to UCF in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl, and a 42-41 heartbreaker against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl last season. On a positive note, Baylor has scored 41 or more points in four straight bowl appearances, but they have also allowed 44.0 points on defense. In other words, if you like points you'll want to want the Russell Athletic Bowl.

UNC is 6-1 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record, but 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site games. Baylor is 16-7 ATS in their past 23 against teams with a winning record, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 non-conference tilts. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their past six overall.

The 'over' is 4-0 in UNC's past four against teams with a winning overall record, and 4-1 in their past five overall. The 'under' is 4-1 in their past five non-conference tilts, however. For Baylor, the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in their past five neutral-site games, and 21-8 in their past 29 non-conference tilts. The 'over' is 27-10-1 in their past 38 against teams with a winning overall mark.

Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Nevada vs. Colorado State

Nevada (6-6 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) heads to the Arizona Bowl looking to put the brakes on a two-game losing skid and topple a red-hot Colorado State (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) team also from the Mountain West Conference.

The Wolf Pack started the season 3-4 SU/ATS through the first season games and it appeared to be a lost season. However, a three-game winning streak from Oct. 24-Nov. 14 kickoff off a 4-0-1 ATS run in the final five games to make Nevada a friend of the bettor.

The Rams got off to an equally tough start, opening 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS. But they were close, as two of those setbacks were against Minnesota and rival Colorado, games which were unable to be decided in regulation. After a 41-10 setback to Boise State Oct. 10, the Rams picked up a win against fellow bowl team Air Force before finishing the regular season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in the final six.

QB Nick Stevens had a decent year for CSU, completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,368 yards, 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He isn't a threat to run, but he did run for two scores. The Rams lead the running to RB Dalyn Dawkins, who led the team with 805 yards and two scores on 5.2 yards per tote. RB Jasen Oden is also shifty, posting 695 yards with five scores. RB Izzy Matthews is also capable, posting 5.9 yards per carry while hitting paydirt five times. In the receiving game it's all about WR Rashard Higgins, who was by far the most impressive with 932 yards and eight scores. WR Joe Hansley had six scores, while TE Kivon Cartwright managed 15.5 yards per grab and two scores.

Wolf Pack QB Tyler Stewart had big shoes to fill for the departed Cody Fajardo, but he did a more than adequate job. He threw for 2,064 yards with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also running for 293 yards and four scores. The Pack had a pair of 1,000-yard runners in James Butler (184-1,156-8) and Don Jackson (220-1,026-8). WRs Hassan Henderson (50-709-4) and Jerico Richardson (64-707-5) have dependable hands, and TE Jarred Gipson is a big red zone threat with five scores this season.

Nevada is 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five overall. However, they're 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven bowl games and 1-4-1 ATS in their past six neutral-site battles. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in their past six meetings in this series, and the 'under' has cashed in five straight battles between these two Mountain West clubs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern streaming on CampusInsiders.com.

Louisiana State vs. Texas Tech

Louisiana State (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) heads to the Advocare V100 Texas Bowl against Texas Tech (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) in a potentially high-scoring game. The Tigers had some uncertainty down the stretch on whether head coach Les Miles would continue on, but he was not fired and that drama appears to be a thing of the past and the team can concentrate 100 percent on the on-field issues again.

LSU had a down year by their standards. They opened 7-0 SU (4-3 ATS), but they had a three-game losing streak from Nov. 7-21 with losses at Alabama, home to Arkansas and at Mississippi. All three of those games are bowling, and they wrapped up with a 19-7 win over Texas A&M. The Tigers were also 1-3 ATS in their final four games, too, and they were 1-4 ATS in their five forays away from Baton Rouge this season.

The season was one of peaks and valleys for the Red Raiders. They opened 3-0, lost two straight to Texas Christian and Baylor at home, won two in a row, lost three in a row and then won their final two. All five of their setbacks came against bowl teams, so there were no embarrassing or shocking setbacks, and they had a nice win at Arkansas earlier in the season, as well as a 48-45 shootout win at Texas to exorcise some historic demons.

The Red Raiders are led by QB Patrick Mahomes II, son of former MLB pitcher Pat Mahomes. The QB threw for 4,283 yards, 32 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while completing 65.0 percent of his passes. He also rushed for 484 yards and 10 touchdowns to serve as a true dual-threat option. WR Jakeem Grant is his favorite target, as he finished the regular season with 1,143 yards with seven touchdowns. WR Devin Lauderdale was good for 43 grabs, 639 yards and four touchdowns, but he was suspended indefinitely and will not play in the Texas Bowl. While that's a big missing target, WR Reginald Davis had seven scores and RB Justin Stockton hauled in six balls for score and they will look to fill the void.

LSU's offense is RB Leonard Fournette, who was putting up mind-boggling numbers early in the season before settling down. He still finished with 1,741 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 209 receiving yards. RBs Derrius Guice and Darrel Williams found the end zone three times. QB Brandon Harris continues his on-the-job training. He showed glimpses of brilliance, but is a work in progress. He completed 53.1 percent of his pass attempts for just 1,904 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions. He ran 64 times for 185 yards and three scores, but will need to play much better if the Tigers hope to keep pace with Texas Tech's high-octane offense. WRs Malachi Dupre (39-602-6) and Travin Dural (28-533-3) are big-play options just looking for more opportunity.

LSU will be making a bowl appearance for the 16th consecutive season. They're just 2-4 in their past six bowl games, including a 31-28 setback to Notre Dame in the Music City bowl last season. The good news is that LSU has scored at least 20 points in 14 of their past 16 bowl games, so the offense tends to show up when bowling.

Texas Tech has enjoyed great success in the postseason in recent seasons. Since a win in the 2002 Tangerine Bowl, the Red Raiders are 9-2 in their past 11 bowl games, and they enter on a four-game bowl win streak. Texas Tech did not go bowling in 2014.

The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their past four bowl games, but 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against Big 12 opponents.

Texas Tech has been hot winning bowl games, but they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight bowl outings and 2-6 ATS in their past eight neutral-site games, too. However, they are 10-4-1 ATS in their past 15 overall and 5-2 ATS in their past seven following a straight-up win.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Tuesday's Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag

BAYLOR BEARS (9-3) vs. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 69

Slumping No. 17 Baylor tries to forget a disappointing final month of the season when it matches up with an excellent No. 10 North Carolina team Tuesday at the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando.

The Bears (5-7 ATS) started the season 8-0, but injuries to their top two quarterbacks (Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham), have left their once-potent offense in shambles. The Tar Heels (8-5 ATS) saw their 11-game win streak come to an end in the ACC Championship Game to Clemson, but still have a chance to win a school record 12th game of the season in what is their seventh bowl appearance in the past eight seasons.

Baylor is playing in its sixth straight bowl after 15 years without a postseason game, but in addition to its quarterback injuries, the team will most likely be missing top RB Shock Linwood (ankle) and No. 1 WR Corey Coleman (groin). The lone injury for North Carolina is DB Sam Smiley (Achilles).

Both schools have reasons to bet for and against them on Tuesday, as the Bears are 19-7 ATS (73%) under head coach Art Briles after out-rushing an opponent by 150+ yards, but are also 2-14 ATS (13%) after three straight games where they committed 3+ turnovers since 1992. The Tar Heels are 39-21 ATS (65%) after two straight games of forcing one or less turnovers since 1992, but are also 9-28 ATS (24%) after scoring 31+ points in two consecutive games in this same timeframe.

Baylor averages a whopping 48.0 PPG and 605 total YPG for the season, but those numbers have fallen to 27.7 PPG and 505 total YPG in the past three games. Third-string QB Chris Johnson has played in all three of these contests, where he's completed only 15-of-38 passes (39.5%) for 220 yards (5.8 YPA), 3 TD and 2 INT.

Although the team will miss top WR Corey Coleman (1,363 rec yds, 20 TD), two other great pass catchers remain healthy in WRs KD Cannon (828 rec yds, 6 TD) and Jay Lee (726 rec yds, 8 TD). The sophomore Cannon has four games of 90+ receiving yards this season, but also has five outings of less than 40 yards, including two in a row. Lee has also had some big performances this year with 70+ yards on six different occasions, but has been held to one catch in each of the past two games with Johnson under center.

With star RB Shock Linwood (1,329 rush yds, 6.8 YPC, 10 TD) doubtful to play, sophomore RB Johnny Jefferson (701 rush yds, 6.2 YPC, 5 TD), who steamrolled Texas for 158 yards on 23 carries (6.9 YPC) in the regular-season finale, will be the main ball carrier for an offense that averages 300 rushing YPG on 5.7 YPC this year.

The Bears defense has given up 27.5 PPG and 389 total YPG this season, as it has been on the field for an average of 32:54 per game. In that time the unit has allowed 156 rushing YPG on a mere 3.6 YPC, but has surrendered 233 YPG on 6.9 YPA through the air. Baylor has forced only three turnovers in the past four games combined, but is facing an opponent with eight giveaways in its past three contests.

Although North Carolina has been sloppy with the football in the colder weather, the offense is still averaging a hefty 40.9 PPG on 487 total YPG this season. The team runs the football 57% of the time for an impressive 223 rushing YPG on 5.9 YPC, but dual-threat QB Marquise Williams has helped Carolina to 264 passing YPG on 9.2 YPA this year as well. Williams has completed 61% of his throws this season for 2,829 yards (8.8 YPA), 21 TD and 9 INT, and has spread the wealth nicely with nine players catching 10+ passes and nine players scoring at least one receiving touchdown.

However, his No. 1 target is clearly WR Mack Hollins who has 711 receiving yards (254 avg) and 8 TD this year. Although Williams connected on just 11-of-33 throws in the ACC title game loss to Clemson, he still threw for 224 yards and 3 TD with only one pick. Williams has also rushed for 867 yards (6.1 YPC) and 11 touchdowns this season, which puts him second on the team behind RB Elijah Hood, who has 1,345 yards on 6.5 YPC and 17 touchdowns. The sophomore Hood has rushed for more than 100 yards on seven different occasions, and has scored multiple touchdowns against six different opponents.

The Tar Heels defense has had a great season with allowing only 22.6 PPG and 411 total YPG, but those numbers have skyrocketed to 35.3 PPG and 508 total YPG over the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been gashed for 217 YPG on 4.8 YPC this season, but the secondary gives up only 194 YPG on 6.1 YPC. The Tar Heels are able to keep opposing scores down by making plays on the football. They have forced at least one turnover in 12 straight games including 3+ takeaways in four of the past seven contests.

NEVADA WOLF PACK (6-6) vs. COLORADO STATE RAMS (7-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Colorado State -3, Total: 56

Two Mountain West teams, Nevada and Colorado State, will collide in the inaugural Arizona Bowl on Tuesday night.

These schools have met six times since 2005 with only one of the games decided by less than two touchdowns. The close contest occurred last year when the Rams nearly blew a 31-3 second-half lead in a 31-24 win. The star of that game was CSU WR Rashard Higgins, who caught 10 passes for 194 yards and 2 TD. Higgins has been a big part of his team’s current four-game win streak with 315 receiving yards, while Nevada, which is trying to snap a two-game losing skid, relies on a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in RBs James Butler and Don Jackson.

The Wolf Pack have been the more profitable wager this year at 7-4-1 ATS (4-1 ATS away from home), while the Rams are just 6-5 ATS overall and 2-3 ATS away from home. Both schools are backed by significant betting trends, as Nevada is 26-12 ATS since 1992 when the total is between 49.5 and 56, while its opponent falls in the category of college football teams going 21-50 ATS (30%) in the past five years after an ATS loss and facing an opponent with 3+ straight ATS victories. But Colorado State is 11-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses (4.75+ YPC allowed) in the past three seasons, and is 50-27 ATS after a 2-1 ATS record in a three-game stretch since 1992.

Both teams are dealing with several injuries for Tuesday's game, as the Wolf Pack won't have OL Joey Anglemire (knee), DB Tere Calloway (personal) is doubtful and three others are questionable in DB Jarid Joseph (concussion) and LBs Travis Wilson (shoulder) and Matthew Lyons (foot). The Rams lost DB Trent Mathews for the season with a torn ACL, FB Nu'uvali Fa'apito (concussion) is doubtful and both OL Nick Callender (ankle) and DB Preston Hodges (undisclosed) are listed as questionable for Tuesday.

Nevada is averaging a pedestrian 26.1 PPG on 378 total YPG this season, but has been able to chew up the clock for 31:28 per game by running the football 62% of the time. This has resulted in a hefty 206 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC, while the air attack picks up only 172 YPG on 6.5 YPA. Sophomore RB James Butler has 1,156 yards on the ground this season on 6.3 YPC and eight touchdowns. He has topped 100 yards on seven different occasions this year, but is coming off a season-low 20 yards on eight carries in the loss at San Diego State. Butler also struggled in last season's loss to Colorado State when he picked up just 29 yards on 11 carries.

Senior RB Don Jackson (1,025 rush yds, 4.6 YPC, 8 TD) wasn't much better versus CSU (13 rush, 43 yds, 3.3 YPC) and has also seen his production wane in the second half of the season. After gaining 569 yards on 5.4 YPC and 6 TD in his first six games, Jackson has amassed only 456 yards on 3.9 YPC and 2 TD in the past six contests.

Junior QB Tyler Stewart (58% completions, 2,065 pass yds, 15 TD, 7 INT) has had a decent year, but has really struggled in the past two games where he has connected on just 20-of-41 passes for 283 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. But Stewart will continue to feed top WRs Jerico Richardson (64 rec, 708 yds, 5 TD) and Hasaan Henderson (50 rec, 709 yds, 4 TD), who both had big games versus the Rams last year. Richardson finished with 10 catches for 122 yards that day while Henderson caught a fourth-quarter touchdown pass.

The Wolf Pack defense hasn't been great in any facet this season, giving up 27.2 PPG on 395 total YPG, which is broken down between 190 rushing YPG (4.8 YPC) and 205 passing YPG (6.7 YPA). While the unit has produced six games with multiple takeaways, it has failed to produce a turnover four times this season, including two of the past three games. Ball protection is of the utmost importance with the Rams who have only 10 giveaways in their seven wins (1.4 per game), but have turned the football over 16 times in their five defeats (3.2 per game).

Despite the turnovers, Colorado State's offense has still scored 30.2 PPG on 417 total YPG this season, which includes 37.0 PPG and 455 total YPG in the past three contests. The Rams lean more heavily to their rushing attack with 59% of their play-calls being runs, but have been able to move the football both on the ground (196 YPG on 4.8 YPC) and through the air (221 YPG on 7.6 YPA).

Sophomore QB Nick Stevens (62% completions, 2,369 pass yds, 7.8 YPA, 21 TD, 12 INT) is the key to this offense, as his team has lost all three games in which he has thrown at least two interceptions. Before his subpar regular-season finale at Fresno State (11-of-21, 85 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT), Stevens had completed at least 65% of his throws in six straight games. One thing he has done well all season is to avoid big losses, as Stevens has absorbed only 12 sacks on his 305 dropbacks.

Junior WR Rashard Higgins (66 rec, 933 yds, 8 TD) has 549 more receiving yards than all of his teammates and his pair of long TD receptions from 51 and 42 yards out played a huge role in winning at Nevada last year.

The Rams rely on three main players to rush the football in sophomore RB Dalyn Dawkins (805 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 2 TD), senior RB Jasen Oden Jr. (695 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 5 TD) and freshman RB Izzy Matthews (503 rush yds, 5.9 YPC, 5 TD). The speedy 175-pound Dawkins is also an accomplished receiver (21 catches), the 218-pound Oden runs mostly north-south and the 215-pound Matthews is arguably the most complete back on the roster. Matthews has been outstanding during the team's four-game win streak with 331 rushing yards on a hefty 6.4 YPC and 4 TD, including a season-high 140 yards in the win at Fresno State.

The CSU defense has nearly identical 2015 numbers (27.2 PPG, 394.3 total YPG) to Nevada (27.2 PPG, 394.7 total YPG) and like the Wolf Pack, the Rams also struggle more in stopping the run (208 YPG on 4.9 YPC) than defending the pass (186 YPG on 7.2 YPA). Colorado State also has the same amount of takeaways as the Nevada defense in each of the past four games with four, zero, three and zero.