College Football Betting News and Notes Tuesday January, 1

New Year's Day bowl Betting Trends and Stats
By Marc Lawrence
Covers.com

January 1 signifies a new year and with it a bevy of college football bowl games.

Let’s take a look at what’s trending for the upcoming New Year’s Day bowl card.

Stats as of 1990 unless specified.

Bowling for dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends for each of the five major bowl games on Jan. 1:

• Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last 12. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed in each of the last two years, snapping a four-year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: The favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins, six have been in straight-up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: Pac-10/12 teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Big Ten opponents.

The good, the bad and the ugly

Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win.

Bad numbers… Big Ten bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big Ten bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus Pac-10/12 opponents.

Coach me up

• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.

• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SU/ATS loss.

• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.

• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.

New Year’s babies

Favorites on New Year’s Day bowl games have been out of this world dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more points per game on the season. They zoom to 31-14 ATS in those situations.

Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to follow suit on Jan. 1.

New resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making - then breaking - new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.

The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.

Stat of New Year's Day

The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Boise State was -16.5 over Utah in Las Vegas Bowl two years ago; that’s biggest bowl spread in last nine years. When was last time a bowl team was a 17-point favorite? Purdue already fired its coach, so they’re at big disadvantage preparation-wise; their QB is playing with a torn ACL, but they did win last three games all vs non-bowl teams (two by a FG each), which got them here, but wasn’t enough to save Hope’s job. Boilers are 3-2 vs spread as an underdog- they lost 20-17 at Notre Dame back in September and lost in OT at Ohio State, but also lost four games in five-week stretch by 16+ points. Oklahoma State scored 49 ppg in its last four games but split the four; in six of their games this year, the losing side scored 30+ points. Gundy is 4-2 as a HC in bowls (3-3 vs spread). Big Dozen teams lost first two editions of this bowl, 45-38/30-14, both a 7.5-point underdogs (1-1 vs spread). Heart of Dallas Bowl is played in the Cotton Bowl; the actual Cotton Bowl is played in massive Jerry World; go figure.

Gator Bowl

Northwestern lost its last nine bowl games; its been 64 years since they won one. Wildcats blew 4th quarter leads in all three of its losses (scored 28+ points in all three) this season; they covered 10 of last 11 games overall, are 6-0-1 vs spread when favored. Mississippi State started out 7-0 vs incredible assortment of stiffs, then lost 38-7 at Alabama and collapsed, losing four of last five games, with none of four losses by less than 17 points. How are they playing on January 1? None of eight teams they beat are in a bowl game this year; four of them fired their coach. Bulldogs are 0-4 vs spread as underdog this year; favorites covered their last eight games. Mullen is 2-0 as HC in bowls; Fitzgerald is 0-4 in bowls, but covered three of the four as an underdog. SEC teams beat Big Dozen teams in last two Gator Bowls, 52-14/24-17, with Miss State trouncing Michigan two years ago; average total in this bowl last nine years is 55. Underdogs covered four of last six Gator Bowls.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska might be 10-3, but they lost games 63-38 (@ Ohio State) and 70-31 (vs Wisconsin in Big Dozen title game); they’re bully team- they fold if you punch them back. Cornhuskers lost 36-30 at UCLA team that started six freshmen on offense- they were only an underdog one game (Ohio St) all year. Georgia’s junior QB Murray already has 40 career starts; Dawgs are 5-1 vs spread as favorite of 15 or less points. Nebraska lost here to South Carolina LY; Pelini is 3-2 in bowls, but he won his first three- they lost 19-7/30-13 in last two. SEC teams beat Big Dozen teams in three of last four Capital One Bowls, after Midwesterners had pulled four consecutive upsets before that; Georgia won this game twice in last nine years, 34-27 (-3.5) over Purdue in OT in ’03, 24-12 (-8.5) over Michigan State three years ago; Richt is 7-4 in bowl games, 6-5 against spread. Average total in last four bowls is 42.8. Cornhuskers are just 8-9 in last 17 games away from Lincoln, 0-4 vs spread in last four games as an underdog.

Outback Bowl

South Carolina lost consecutive weeks in October at LSU/Florida, only two games Spurrier lost; Gamecocks are 5-2-1 as favorites this season, despite losing star RB Lattimore for year and having injury issues at QB. Michigan is 2-4 away from home this year, 0-4 vs spread as underdogs; they best team they beat was Northwestern in OT, and they needed OT to do that. South Carolina lost 31-10 (+3.5) to Iowa in this game four years ago. Gamecocks snapped 3-bowl losing streak LY, beating Nebraska 30-13; they had scored 10-7-17 points in previous three bowls. Hoke won his first bowl game with Michigan 23-20 in OT LY, first time in five bowls Wolverines allowed less than 32 points. Spurrier is 8-10 in bowl games, 2-4 at Carolina. Michigan became more balanced on offense with Gardner at QB. SEC teams are 5-3 vs Big Dozen in this bowl last eight years, with underdogs 5-3 vs spread and two of last three going to overtime. Favorites were 9-13 in bowls coming into today.

Rose Bowl

All five Wisconsin losses this year were either by 3 points or in OT, as six of its eight wins were by 11+ points. Badger AD Alvarez is netting $118,000 for coaching just this game, with a $50,000 bonus if he wins!!!! Over the last nine years, Big Dozen teams are 1-7 in Rose Bowl, with Wisconsin losing last two years, 21-19 (+3) to TCU, 45-38 (+5) to Oregon LY. Badgers lost four of last five bowls, but were dog in all five (2-3 vs spread); they're first team to get to Rose Bowl with five losses. Stanford is in this game for first time since '99; they've lost four of last five bowls, with underdogs covering four of the five games- dogs are 5-3 vs spread in last eight Rose Bowls, 4-1 in last five that didn’t have USC in it. Cardinal lost at Washington in OT on a Thursday, then got hosed in OT at Notre Dame two weeks later, only games they lost this year. Stanford is 4-6 vs spread as favorite this year. Bowl teams that changed head coaches before their bowl game are 2-3 so far this bowl season.

Orange Bowl

Northern Illinois had to buy 17,500 tickets for this game; their average home attendance was under 16,000, but 1,500 NIU students took buses down here over weekend, so Huskies will have support, just not at the level Florida State will. NIU covered 11 of last 16 tries as an underdog; they lost opener 18-17 to Iowa in Chicago, then ran table, winning by a point at Army, winning MAC title game in OT over Kent State. ACC teams lost six of last seven Orange Bowls, with last four all decided by 10+ points; underdogs won four of last five SU. Florida State lost this game 16-14 (+1.5) to Miami in ’03, then lost again in ’05 to Penn State 26-23 (+10) in OT. Seminoles struggled in last four games, losing 37-26 at home to Florida, beating Va Tech/Ga Tech, both by six points- they've won last four bowls, by 29-12-9-4 points (2-0 as favorite). Huskies won last two bowls, over Fresno St/Arkansas St, but they also lost 49-7 to Wisconsin LY. Will Seminoles take Northern Illinois seriously?

Armadillosports.com

Gator Bowl Betting Preview
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com

Northwestern vs. Mississippi State
CRIS Opener: Mississippi State -3 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Northwestern -2 O/U 53.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Mississippi State pk

Northwestern overachieved this season getting to a January 1st bowl game. They were expected to be a middle of the pack Big Ten team, while trying to replace many starters from last year’s team. However, times have changed for the Wildcats as they’ll play in their fifth straight postseason. The Wildcats will certainly be motivated as they’ve lost nine straight bowl games with their last win coming in 1949. The current bowl run is evident in their recruiting and talent on the football field. This is an athletic team and while not quite on the SEC’s level, a player like Kane Colter is a clear example how far the Wildcats have come. Colter is a dual-threat player who can run and throw the football from the quarterback/wildcat position. However, he can lineup and beat you playing wide receiver as well. Colter was not only able to pass for eight touchdowns and complete 69% of his passes, but also run for 12 touchdowns and even catch 16 passes as well. Compounding matters in preparing for the Wildcats offense is the emergence of running back Venric Mark who ran for over 1,300 yards, while scoring 11 touchdowns. Mark is also a force in the return game. The Wildcats have changed their spots if you will from recent editions, while keeping the ball more on the ground. They owned the 14th best rushing offense in the country at 231 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State was ranked 13th in the country and riding high at 7-0 before dropping four of their last five games. Keep in mind out of the SEC, their closing schedule was hellacious including losses to Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M. However, you can count on the Bulldogs being motivated off their the Egg Bowl loss to rival Ole Miss, 41-24. The Bulldogs are almost opposite Northwestern in they’ve been a run heavy team under head coach Dan Mullen, until throwing the football much more this season with junior quarterback Tyler Russell. Russell threw for almost 2,800 yards and 22 touchdowns. His main target is the speedy Chad Bumphis with 12 touchdown receptions of his own, and Northwestern can struggle against the pass (102nd).

This game could quite simply come down to the last man standing. The Bulldogs have struggled against the spread offenses they’ve faced this year, and the Wildcats will keep the pace flowing with their efficient style. However, three of Northwestern’s losses came after losing double-digit leads and this was a habit from pervious teams as well.

Outback Bowl Betting Preview
By Marty Otto
Sportsmemo.com

Michigan vs. South Carolina
CRIS Opener: South Carolina -3.5 O/U 48.5
CRIS Current: South Carolina -4.5 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: South Carolina -3.5

The Outback Bowl is where we typically see the third or fourth best offerings from the Big Ten and SEC. It has quality teams but not always supremely motivated teams despite the New Year’s Day kickoff.

Breaking down the fundamental matchups may prove a little tricky. Michigan ranks as one of the better defenses in the country and coordinator Greg Mattison has garnered a lot of praise for turning this stop unit around. I wonder if they’re a bit of a paper tiger though. Yes the Wolverines rank 10th in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, and 16th in scoring defense nationally but the backbone of those rankings were built against the likes of putrid offensive teams such as UMass, Illinois, Minnesota and Iowa. While they were not necessarily pushovers they tended to crack when asked to step up in class; Alabama had their way against the Wolverines and UM had a real difficult time stopping mobile quarterbacks from Nebraska, Northwestern and Ohio State. South Carolina has a mobile quarterback in Connor Shaw that would likely be able to exploit some of those problem areas I’ve seen from the Michigan defense but he’s not necessarily 100% healthy. He is starting and he is expected to get through the game but head coach Steve Spurrier has already confirmed that Dylan Thompson – Shaw’s backup – will play early and often.

On the flip side South Carolina ranks as statistically even with Michigan from a defensive perspective though they sure look stronger visually. You go through and look at what the Gamecocks did in allowing only two teams to score more than 23 points this year and it’s quite impressive. Any discussion of the Gamecocks’ defense starts with dominant end Jadeveon Clowney. This guy is a beast and will make his presence felt one way or another while rushing the passer. He either gets sacks or so disrupts a play that the quarterback will make an errant throw. Michigan is decidedly a run first offense and will try to stick to that plan to quiet Clowney. Dual threat quarterback, Denard Robinson, is now playing RB due to an elbow injury but Devin Gardner has filled his shoes admirably. That probably shouldn’t come as a shock as back in 2010 Gardner was rated as one of the top dual threat recruits in the country. Although he was stuck behind Robinson on the depth chart he showed flashes of his athletic ability as a receiver. It’ll be Gardner who will have to keep his head on a swivel while attempting to get away from Clowney though we should mention Michigan’s solid offensive line surrendered only 15 sacks this year.

I do question whether or not Spurrier really wants to be here or if he’d rather be on the golf course. Spurrier’s teams of late have had some sluggish showings in their bowl games, losing three straight prior to beating Nebraska last year. This is a step up game for Michigan but in fairness three of their losses came to the top three teams in the nation (Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State) so they’ve been tested. My gut says USC is the stronger team on defense and they should be able to control the game. And I’d rather take an SEC entrant over a Big Ten entrant just about any day. But for the Big Ten haters out there it should be mentioned that this game in particular has seen some big success for teams from up north; Big Ten teams are 7-3 ATS the past 10 Outback Bowls.

Capital One Bowl Gambling Preview
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com

Nebraska vs. Georgia
CRIS Opener: Georgia -9.5 O/U 57
CRIS Current: Georgia -8.5 O/U 60
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Georgia -9.5

This matchup features a pair of teams that are clearly disappointed to be here. Both Nebraska and Georgia were in position to play in BCS Bowl games, but both squads came up short in their respective conference championship games. The way they came up short, however, was quite different.

Nebraska enjoyed a strong regular season, despite some ugly losses, like the 63-38 defeat they suffered in Columbus against Ohio State and their early season failure on the road at UCLA. But after winning ten games, including an impressive road win at Michigan State and a wild, come-from-behind victory over Wisconsin at home, the Cornhuskers were thoroughly embarrassed and humiliated in the Big 10 Championship Game; a rematch against the revenge-minded Badgers.

Wisconsin ripped off a 56-yard TD run on their first offensive drive, then got a pick six on the Huskers first possession, taking a two TD lead barely three minutes into the game. By halftime it was 42-10, and by the end of the game, the Badgers had rushed for 539 yards against Bo Pelini’s stop unit; 10.8 yards per carry. It was a disastrous performance, plain and simple.

Pelini’s post game quotes tell the tale of a coach with something to prove come bowl season. ''What do you do? What is defensive football. Play your gaps, handle your responsibility, be where you're supposed to be and make tackles, and we did none of the above…Shock doesn't even begin to explain it. It was like a leaking boat. It was one thing after another, one problem after another. There were some things that we corrected and then it happened again. I've never been a part of a game like that as a coach.”

Georgia wasn’t embarrassed by its 32-28 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama – they were crushed and disappointed after coming up just short of the outright upset and a trip to the national championship game against Notre Dame. Bulldogs QB Aaron Murray two weeks after the game: “I can't sleep at night. I literally replay the entire game pretty much every night before I go to bed. It's stressful. It's a game that will probably haunt me the rest of my life, honestly."

Georgia, too, was gashed on the ground in that ballgame, allowing a season worst 350 yards on the ground to the Crimson Tide. And the Bulldogs struggled against a pair of dual-threat QBs (like Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez) that they faced earlier in the season – both Connor Shaw (South Carolina) and Alex Zordich (Buffalo) had success against this stop unit

To make matters even worse for Georgia, their star senior defensive lineman John Jenkins – a surefire first round NFL Draft choice this coming spring – flunked his final exams and has been declared ineligible for the bowl. It is worth noting, however, that Georgia should have DL Abry Jones – another senior starter – back for the bowl after he missed the final seven regular season games following ankle surgery.

There’s no question that Georgia has more NFL caliber talent than Nebraska does these days. And the Cornhuskers have struggled to sell tickets – their fan base is less than thrilled for their return trip to the Capital One Bowl in Orlando after Nebraska got waxed by South Carolina 30-13 on New Year’s Day last year. But from this ‘capper’s perspective, I’m not convinced we’re going to see anything resembling Georgia’s a-game here; a team still haunted by their ‘woulda, coulda, shoulda’ performance against Alabama a month ago to the day.

Rose Bowl Gamling Preview
By Erin Rynning
Sportsmemo.com

Wisconsin vs. Stanford
CRIS Opener: Stanford -6 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Stanford -6 O/U 47
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Stanford -3.5

Wisconsin’s season might seem never ending to some. They’ve gone through three starting quarterbacks, fired their offensive line coach after a couple of games, lost three games in overtime, and somehow played in the Big Ten title game, blowing out Nebraska 70-31. Oh yeah, head coach Brett Bielema left for Arkansas shortly after their Big Ten title win, and now program granddaddy, Barry Alvarez, is back to coach the ‘Granddaddy of Them All’, the Rose Bowl. Of course, Alvarez is the one with all the Rose Bowl wins for the Badgers in 1994, 1999 and 2000. This will be the Badgers’ third straight trip to the Rose Bowl, while Bielema came up short in each of the last two years.

Wisconsin’s five losses did come by an average of 3.8 points. They’ll be led by fifth year senior quarterback Curt Phillips, although he’s quite green for his academic age. He started the second half of the season after redshirt freshman Joel Stave fractured his collar bone. Phillips is quite limited throwing the football, however Stave’s been cleared to play and expect him to certainly be incorporated into the game plan. He has the much stronger arm, while featuring a great rapport with game breaking wide receiver Jared Abbrederis. However, this is still Wisconsin and they’ll go as far as their ground game will take them with Montee Ball and James White.

Stanford head coach David Shaw will take the Cardinal into the Rose Bowl for the first time since their 2000 loss to the Badgers and Alvarez. Stanford was a 14-point underdog that day, while losing 17-9. The roles will be somewhat reversed this time around with Stanford the strong favorite, while winning six-straight games. This will be an amazing match-up with Stanford’s defensive front seven against the rugged Badgers running game. The numbers produced by this Cardinal stop unit are simply dominating with 56 sacks, while ranked third in the country stopping the run. They’ve allowed just 2.8 yards per carry and they’ve played some big time running backs as well. They held the mighty Oregon Ducks to 198 yards on 40 carries. Wisconsin recorded just 19 yards on the ground against the top ranked Michigan State run defense. Stanford has picked it up notably on offense since inserting redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan at quarterback. Hogan is a duel threat who completed 73% of his passes and the Cardinal averaged 30.8 points per game in their last five games. Both teams will be well represented in Pasadena as Stanford has sold close to 40,000 tickets and the Badger faithful will be in full support of Alvarez. Stanford has played nine games decided by seven points or less, and while winning seven of those this figures to be a close hard fought football game decided in the trenches.

Orange Bowl Betting Preview
By Alf Musketa
Sportsmemo.com

Northern Illinois vs. Florida State
CRIS Opener: Florida State -15 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Florida State -13 O/u 58.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Florida State -13

The Orange Bowl is the last game on the board on New Year's Day. This is important to note, as the public after a long day of betting five bowl games including the much maligned Rose Bowl, (which is right before the Orange Bowl) will surely come in and get involved in this late night contest. Florida State is an obvious college football power house and we expect them to get the late money. Therefore if you fancy the Seminoles in this game, perhaps you should bet them now at -13. Conversely, if you like Northern Illinois wait until after the Rose Bowl and you just might get plus two touchdowns. The early money has come in against Florida State; they opened -15 and the market players quickly scooped up the underdog at +14 or better.

There are conflicting opinions by handicappers as to motivation and who wants this game more. Florida State won the ACC Championship and gets to play in their home state. They'll have the home field advantage, however sometimes teams, coaches and players would rather play out of town and be rewarded for their season. Now by winning their conference championship they are rewarded with a game against the MAC Conference title winner Northern Illinois, a team that many do not know let alone could believe they could qualify for a BCS Bowl. On the other hand, the Huskies have been bashed by the media – especially by ESPN's panel of college football “experts” – that they do not belong here, not in the BCS and certainly not playing a team the caliber of Florida State in a New Year's Day bowl game. I think this is a key motivating factor for the Huskies and that they will be inspired to show that they are a quality program and can play with the big boys. Florida State was picked by many to be a national championship contender. They finished the season with an 11-2 record, losing to NC State, Florida and narrowly beating a weak Georgia Tech squad in the ACC title game. With the exception of Clemson, the ACC had a lot of teams that underachieved this season. The Seminoles were a money losing machine 4-9 against the spread, covering just one of their last five games. This team didn’t turn out to be a #1 title contender, but rather a squad that played to their competition. They were favored in every single game and by just winning close games were a solid go against play. As a -13 point chalk here, I have to agree with the line move downward.

Even though Northern Illinois head coach Dave Doeren has left for NC State, offensive coordinator Rod Carey takes over – he’s was the brains behind the spread attack that the Huskies have showcased this season. Carey has done a superb job with quarterback Jordan Lynch who finished third in the nation in total offense and is a serious duel threat to score running or passing. The Seminoles lost popular defensive coordinator Mark Stoops who will be the head coach at Kentucky. Florida State's defense ranks second in the country, but that ranking is suspect due to the poor play of the ACC and annihilating two weak FCS opponents early in the season. We have seen Florida State rarely knocks out their opponent and we envision the Huskies to be competitive for the entire game.

Rose Bowl Preview
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com

The Rose Bowl is always one of the most anticipated bowl games of the year and there are some unique storylines setting the stage for an interesting match-up this year. Stanford and Wisconsin have similar styles of play and both teams have gone through different quarterbacks this season while still delivered successful results. Here is a look at Tuesday’s Rose Bowl and the history between these teams.

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal
Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Date: Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Time/TV: 5:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Stanford -6, Over/Under 47
Last Meeting: 2000, Wisconsin (-14) 17-9

This year’s Rose Bowl won’t have a big impact on the top of the national polls and with neither of these teams were ever in national title contention as this year’s game lacks some of its normal cachet. The Big Ten certainly had a down year in part due to probation for two of the better teams in the conference, which allowed Wisconsin to advance to the Big Ten championship despite being just 4-4 in conference play. Oregon was the national title contender for the Pac-12 but the Ducks could not even win their own division after being upset by this Stanford team.

Most expected Stanford to struggle last season with Jim Harbaugh leaving the program for the NFL but David Shaw guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 season with an overtime loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Most called for a decline again this season with #1 NFL draft pick Andrew Luck among others no longer on the team but the Cardinal have a chance to match last season’s record and Stanford returns to the Rose Bowl for the first time since after the 1999 season. In that game Stanford lost but covered as a heavy underdog against Wisconsin.

That was a Wisconsin Rose Bowl team led by Barry Alvarez and featuring Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne. Alvarez retired a few years later but he remained at the university eventually as the athletic director. With the surprising move of Bret Bielema taking the Arkansas job, Alvarez will be back on the sidelines, going for his fourth Rose Bowl victory as a head coach. It took the urging of his players to accept that challenge and as the A.D. it may have been in part a shrewd move to boost ticket sales and interest for Badgers fans as well. There was certainly limited interest for many to make a third straight trip to Pasadena, especially after an underwhelming 7-5 campaign. Many of the assistants for Wisconsin will run the show but most of the staff will be heading elsewhere after this game as former Utah State head Coach Gary Andersen has been hired to take over the program.

Quarterbacks will also be a focal point in this game. Wisconsin opened the season with Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien at the helm but his struggles prompted a move to redshirt freshman Joel Stave. Stave showed some promise but he was injured and senior Curt Phillips led the team in the final weeks. Phillips is expected to start but expect Stave to run the offense in a few series as he has more potential in the passing game. Phillips did his part in the Big Ten championship but he has only completed 36 passes all season.

Junior Josh Nunes opened the season as the starting quarterback for Stanford. He helped the team score a big early-season upset over USC but the Cardinal would lose two of the next three games. Sitting at 6-2 Stanford opted to switch to redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal have not lost since, stunning Oregon to win the North Division and taking out UCLA in back-to-back weeks to win the Pac-12. Hogan has thrown nine touchdowns and just three interceptions but more importantly he adds a mobility dimension that has made Stanford a much more imposing offensive team.

Overall these teams have pretty similar numbers statistically and both teams focus their efforts on the ground. Wisconsin rushes over 45 times per game and Stanford runs nearly 40 times per game. Wisconsin has been the more productive team, gaining 6.0 yards per play but the numbers are skewed with a few big blowout wins weighing heavily. Defensively Wisconsin also has a slight edge in the statistics but the Pac-12 certainly rated as a tougher league and Stanford also had to play #1 Notre Dame.

Close games defined both of these teams as Wisconsin’s five losses came by a combined total of 19 points with three of those losses coming in overtime. Stanford meanwhile had seven wins by seven or fewer points including two overtime wins. In a match-up of teams with similar styles another tight Rose Bowl could be in order. Wisconsin has lost the last two years in the Rose Bowl under Bielema, losing by seven last season against Oregon and by two against TCU two years ago.

Line Movement: Stanford opened as a 6½-point favorite and in early December the line did jump up to -7. In recent days the numbers has fallen down to -6. The total was steady at 47½ for several weeks but has recently slipped to 47.

Last Meeting: On New Year’s Day 2000 Wisconsin beat Stanford 17-9 in the Rose Bowl in a defensive battle. It was Wisconsin’s second straight Rose Bowl, though they did not cover as a heavy favorite.

Series History: These teams have played three times in the last 30 years with a tie in early season non-conference play in 1995 and Wisconsin winning the two more recent meetings including the Rose Bowl after the 1999 season.

Wisconsin Historical Trends: Wisconsin has been a capable underdog, going 29-20-1 ATS since 1999. Barry Alvarez has a strong 8-3 bowl record in his career, though this is a unique situation. Wisconsin is 29-11-1 ATS since 1991 as an underdog of six or more points but they are just 2-5 in the last seven instances.

Stanford Historical Trends: The Cardinal has excelled in the favorite role with a 29-15 ATS mark since 2008 when laying points. Stanford is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 instances as a favorite away from home as the great recent numbers are not solely built on the great home field edge. David Shaw did lose in his only bowl game last season, a wild 41-38 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Northern Illinois vs. Florida State

15th-ranked Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1, 9-2-2 ATS) and 12th-ranked Florida State Seminoles (11-2, 3-9 ATS) square off in the Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium Tuesday night. Huskies ridding a 12-0 (8-2-2 ATS) streak, 21-1 (14-6-2 ATS) stretch dating back to last season certainly earned their spot. But, NIU recording 40.8 PPG lead by Jordan Lynch who threw for 2962 yds, 24 TD's while rushing a team-high 1771 yds and 19 majors face a tough test. Florida State has it's own lethal weapons in QB E.J Manual (3101 yds, 22 TD), RB's James Wilder (583 yds, 11 TD), Chris Thompson (687 yds, 5 TD), Devonta Freeman (630 yds, 8 TD) to keep pace. In the end Noles' 'D' giving up just 15.1 points/game will allow Florida State to record a fifth consecutive bowl victory (4-0 SU/ATS) and seventh since 2005 (6-3 SU, 7-1-1 ATS). The betting market has Florida State laying 13 points, dangerous betting territory as 'Noles are on a 2-7 ATS skid laying double digits, 1-4 ATS facing a team with a winning record, NIU comes in 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-1-2 ATS last ten overall, 6-2 ATS stretch taking eight or more points away from home.

Early New Year's Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Purdue vs. Oklahoma State

The Heart of Dallas Bowl will pit the Big Ten versus the Big 12 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The action on ESPNU starts at noon Eastern.

Oklahoma St. (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) is the most heavily favored school in this year’s postseason. As of late Monday afternoon, most betting shops had the Cowboys installed as 17-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 70-71 range. The Boilermakers are plus-600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

OSU head coach Mike Gundy turned down job offers from several schools to stay at his alma mater, but his flirtations clearly point to a rift in Gundy’s relationship with the school’s AD. Whatever the case, you would think the Cowboys are fired up that their head coach decided to stay put. On that note, OSU would seem to have the advantage in motivation but then again, is it excited to face a six-loss team?

Purdue (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) saw its head coach Danny Hope fired at the end of the regular season. Hope went 22-27 during his four-year tenure. His permanent replacement will be Kent State’s Darrell Hazell, but Patrick Higgins is the Boilermakers’ interim head coach vs. Oklahoma St.

OSU compiled a 4-2 spread record in six games as a double-digit favorite during the regular season. The Cowboys are seeking their third consecutive win in a bowl game. They won a 41-38 decision over Stanford in overtime of last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

Purdue won its last three regular-season games to become bowl eligible. Hope’s team covered the spread in two of those contests, including the regular-season finale, a 56-35 home win over Indiana as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Robert Marve threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns. For the season, Marve has a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oklahoma St. lost back-to-back games to end the regular season, but we should note the Cowboys’ stellar 5-2 spread record down the stretch. They are ranked fourth in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 44.7 points per game despite going through three different starting QBs due to injuries.

Purdue has hooked up its backers in a pair of double-digit underdog situations this year. The Boilers nearly pulled outright upsets in narrow losses at Notre Dame (17-14) and at Ohio St. (29-22 in overtime).

The ‘over’ hit at a 7-4 overall clip for OSU, going 4-1 in its last five games.

The ‘over’ also went 7-4 overall for Purdue during the regular season.

Northwestern vs. Mississippi State

This showdown between the SEC and Big Ten will be contested in Jacksonville at the Gator Bowl. As of late Monday afternoon, most books were listing Northwestern (9-3 SU, 11-1 ATS) as a short favorite. Most Vegas shops had the Wildcats favored by one, while most offshore books had them as two-point favorites. Mississippi St. was favored for most of the month of December by 1.5 to 2.5. However, most spots made Northwestern the favorite on Dec. 28.

Mississippi St. (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) won its first seven games before losing four of its last five when it faced the meat of its schedule. The losses came at Alabama (38-7), vs. Texas A&M (38-13), at LSU (37-17) and at Ole Miss (41-24).

Mississippi St. is led by junior QB Tyler Russell, who threw for 2,791 yards with a 22/6 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs go as he goes, evidenced by his 3/5 TD-INT ratio in their four losses.

Russell’s favorite target is senior WR Chad Bumphis, who has 55 receptions for 904 yards and 12 TDs. LaDarius Perkins is the team’s leading rusher, producing 941 yards on the ground with eight TDs with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average.

Pat Fitzgerald’s team covered the number in each of its six games as a favorite. Northwestern won outright in its last two games and took the cash in each of its last six. The Wildcats closed the regular season by trouncing Illinois 50-14 as 19-point home favorites. Kain Colter threw three TD passes without an interception and also rushed for 88 yards and one TD. Venric Mark rushed for 127 yards and one score.

Northwestern utilizes a two-QB system that has proven to work effectively. Trevor Siemian is more of a pure passer and gets more of the snaps. Siemian has 1,192 passing yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Colter gets playing time at WR and is a two-way threat under center with his arm and scrambling ability. Colter has eight TD passes compared to only two interceptions. He has also rushed for 820 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

Mark rushed for 1,310 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC.

Dan Mullen’s team went 0-3 both SU and ATS in three underdog spots.

The ‘under’ went 6-1-1 in the Bulldogs’ first eight games, but the ‘over’ ended the regular season on a 3-0 run.

The ‘under’ went 6-5 overall for Northwestern this year.

During Fitzgerald’s seven-year tenure, Northwestern is winless in four bowl games but has covered the spread in two of those. Two losses came in overtime.

ESPN2 will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.

South Carolina vs. Michigan

Another SEC-Big Ten matchup will go down in Tampa at the Outback Bowl.

Most books opened South Carolina (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) as a 3½-point favorite but the number was quickly adjusted to four. Since then, the number has been gradually increasing and got as high as six at one point. As of late Monday afternoon, the Gamecocks were favored by five or 5.5 at most books in Las Vegas. Some offshores were down to 4 ½. Gamblers can take the Wolverines to win outright for a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).

South Carolina won eight of its 10 games by double-digit margins, including a 27-17 win at Clemson without starting quarterback Connor Shaw in the regular-season finale. The only losses for Spurrier’s team came during a murderous three-week stretch. The Gamecocks started the brutal span by spanking Georgia 35-7 in a game that was over midway through the first quarter. Next, they lost a 23-21 heartbreaker at LSU. In the only poor performance all year, South Carolina got run out of The Swamp when turnovers got the best of it and created a lopsided final score.

South Carolina has thrived in its last eight roles as a favorite, compiling a 6-2 spread record. The Gamecocks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as single-digit ‘chalk.’

Michigan (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) lost four times during Brady Hoke’s second season at the helm. The Wolverines were drilled 41-14 in their season opener vs. Alabama on a neutral field in Arlington, TX. They also got blasted by a 23-9 count at Nebraska. The other defeats came at Notre Dame (13-6) and at Ohio St. (26-21).

Michigan has been an underdog four times this year, going 0-4 both SU and ATS.

South Carolina is going bowling for the seventh time during Steve Spurrier’s spectacular eight-year tenure. After losing three straight bowl games, the Gamecocks dealt out woodshed treatment to Nebraska in last year’s Capital One Bowl. They won 30-13 as 2½-point favorites to capture the first 11-win campaign in school history. Spurrier’s bunch will be looking for another 11-win season in this spot, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue.

Totals were an overall wash (6-6) for Michigan, but it saw the ‘over’ cash at a 3-1 clip in its last four outings.

The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Gamecocks, going 4-1 in their last five games.

Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Georgia vs. Nebraska

Georgia and Nebraska will collide in Orlando at the Capital One Bowl. UGA nearly advanced to the BCS Championship Game before dropping a 32-28 heartbreaker to Alabama at the Ga. Dome in the SEC title game.

Most spots opened Georgia (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 57. However, as of late Friday afternoon, the number had dipped down to nine and even 8 or 8.5 at some offshores. The total was all the way up into the 61-62 range. The Cornhuskers are plus-280 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

Nebraska (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) saw its Rose Bowl hopes dashed in a humiliating 70-31 loss to Wisconsin as a three-point ‘chalk’ in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. The Badgers raced out to a 49-10 lead less than one minute into the third quarter and coasted to victory. The Cornhuskers gave up an appalling 539 rushing yards, giving up an average of more than 10 yards per tote.

Bo Pelini’s squad has been an underdog twice, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. Nebraska got spanked at Ohio St. and won a 28-24 decision over Michigan St. in East Lansing.

Georgia has a balanced offensive attack that averages 37.2 PPG. Junior QB Aaron Murray has thrown for 3,458 yards with a 31/8 TD-INT ratio. Freshman RB Todd Gurley rushed for a team-high 1,260 yards and 16 TDs.

UGA was been a single-digit favorite only once during the regular season, collecting a 41-20 win at Missouri as a one-point road ‘chalk.’

Mark Richt’s team has lost back-to-back postseason games. The Dawgs lost 10-6 to Central Florida in the 2010 Liberty Bowl and dropped a 33-30 triple-overtime decision to Michigan St. in last year’s Outback Bowl.

The ‘over’ is 7-4-1 overall for Nebraska, cashing at a 3-1-1 clip in its last four outings.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) in UGA games, but the ‘under’ has cashed in six of its last seven contests.

ABC will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

Heart Of Dallas Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17, 70)

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL STORYLINES

1. Having survived the coaching carousel with Mike Gundy still at the helm, Oklahoma State will be looking for its third straight bowl win and fifth in the last seven seasons. Purdue was not quite as lucky when it came to the coaching turnover and will be led by interim Patrick Higgins after coach Danny Hope was let go. Former Kent State coach Darrell Hazell will take over the program after the contest.

2. The Cowboys suffered four of their five losses on the road this season but will be playing close enough to home in Dallas that they should be able to get the crowd behind them. Either way, the game will likely turn into a shootout. Oklahoma State was fourth in the nation in scoring (44.7 points) during the regular season while the Boilermakers averaged a shade less than 30 points and blasted Indiana 56-35 in their final game to become bowl eligible.

3. Purdue senior quarterback Robert Marve passed for seven touchdowns and one interception during the three-game winning streak that closed the regular season and will be getting a chance to shred a Cowboys' secondary that allowed 285.7 yards in the regular season. The Boilermakers’ bigger deficiency is against the run, where Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle could do some damage.

LINE: Oklahoma State opened as high as -17.5 and was bet down to -16.5 before going back to -17. The total has moved from 69.5 to as high as 70.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in Dallas is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 10 mph.

TRENDS:

* Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Boilermakers' last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys' last four non-conference games.

ABOUT PURDUE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 6-6 ATS): Hope compiled a 22-27 record over four seasons but the Boilermakers struggled against quality competition this season and won only three games in the Big Ten - against teams with a combined conference record of 4-20. Fortunately those three games came in the last three weeks of the season, allowing Marve and the offense to build a little momentum heading into bowl season. The defense was better than only Indiana in the Big Ten but Marve, who missed three games and was limited to a total of 17 passes in two others, won his job back in the final month and went for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the final win.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (7-5, 5-4 Big 12, 6-5 ATS): The Cowboys were rebuilding after waving goodbye to first-round NFL draft picks Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but Gundy and company were able to keep the offense rolling right along. Junior quarterback Clint Chelf wrestled away the starting job over the last month but could not keep up with the deficiencies on defense in losses at Oklahoma 51-48 and Baylor 41-34 to close the season. While the quarterback position has been the subject of some debate, Randle’s place in secure. The junior rushed for four scores in the loss to Oklahoma and finished the regular season with 1,351 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Gator Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-1, 52)

TAXSLAYER.COM GATOR BOWL STORYLINES

1. It's a matchup of two teams on the rise who are trying to build winning traditions. Mississippi State has qualified for three consecutive bowl games for the first time since 1998-2000, and the Bulldogs have won five straight bowl games dating to the 1999 Peach Bowl. Northwestern has made five straight bowl games but has not won one since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

2. Northwestern is trying to claim its first 10-win season since 1995, when it reached the Rose Bowl under coach Gary Barnett, and give coach Pat Fitzgerald 50 victories, the most in school history. Fitzgerald is tied with Lynn Waldorf (1936-45) with 49 wins.

3. Both teams led their conferences in turnover margin, as Northwestern as plus-13 and Mississippi State was plus-17.

LINE: Mississippi State opened as a 2-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5 before money on Northwestern took the line all the way to Wildcats -1.5. The total has moved from 51.5 to 53.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs' last six non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-4, 4-4 SEC, 6-6 ATS): The Bulldogs faltered in SEC play after a 7-0 start that saw them climb as high as No. 12 in the rankings. Three of their losses came against highly ranked opponents in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU, but the regular season ended on a sour note with a 41-24 loss to rival Mississippi. The balanced offense is led by running back LaDarius Perkins (940 yards, eight touchdowns), quarterback Tyler Russell (2,791 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions) and receiver Chad Bumphis (55 catches, 904 yards, 12 touchdowns). The defense was strong early in the season but didn't hold up as well against the SEC's top teams, allowing 37 or more points in all four losses.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten, 11-1 ATS): The Wildcats won their last two games of the regular season and three of their last four. Northwestern's spread offense has been one of the most productive in the nation on the ground, averaging 230.9 rushing yards with running back Venric Mark (1,310 yards, 11 touchdowns) and quarterback Kain Colter (820 yards, 12 touchdowns) leading the way. Colter also has passed for 796 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions while splitting time with Trevor Siemian (1,192 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions). Mark needs 147 all-purpose yards to tie the Northwestern single-season record of 2,195 set by Damien Anderson in 2000. The defense is solid across the board but is especially tough against the run (123.8 yards per game).

Rose Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 47.5)

ROSE BOWL STORYLINES

1. The Rose Bowl was shaping up as a fairly nondescript matchup with Pac-12 champion Stanford squaring off against a five-loss Wisconsin squad. Then the Badgers unwittingly added some juice and an intriguing subplot to the "The Granddaddy of Them All" when coach Bret Bielema accepted a job at Arkansas, prompting former Wisconsin coach and current athletic director Barry Alvarez to return to the sideline on New Year's Day. Alvarez took Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl three times - and won them all.

2. It will be strength against strength in a no-frills, grind-it-out affair between two of the only three schools to be playing in a BCS bowl game for the third straight season. The Badgers rely on a powerhouse ground game led by touchdown machine Montee Ball, the Doak Walker Award winner as the nation's top running back. Stanford counters with a rugged defense that is ranked third nationally against the run with an average of 87.7 yards allowed per game.

3. While Wisconsin went 8-5, eighth-ranked Stanford carries a seven-game winning streak into the Rose Bowl, highlighted by a dramatic victory at then-No. 1 Oregon to dash the Ducks' national championship hopes. The Cardinal have not tasted defeat since an overtime loss at BCS Championship Game finalist Notre Dame on Oct. 13. They beat four ranked opponents to close the season, including UCLA twice. The Badgers, who are playing in Pasadena for the third straight season, beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl following the 1999 season.

LINE: Stanford opened at -6.5 and was bet up briefly to -7 before coming down as low as -6. The total has moved from 47.5 to 47 at some books.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Cardinal are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Badgers' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 19-7 in Cardinal's last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (8-5, 4-4 Big Ten, 6-7 ATS): Ball could not quite match his brilliant 2011 season, when he finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, but he still piled up 1,730 yards and ran for 21 scores to become the NCAA career leader with 82 touchdowns. He rushed for 202 yards and three touchdowns in a 70-31 drubbing of Nebraska in the Big Ten Conference title game as the Badgers rebounded from back-to-back overtime losses to end the regular season. Ball is not a one-man show in the backfield. James White had 109 yards and four touchdowns and Melvin Gordon added 216 yards on only nine carries as Wisconsin amassed 539 rushing yards against Nebraska. Quarterback Curt Phillips went 2-2 after replacing an injured Joel Stave (collarbone), who hopes to be cleared for the game. Wisconsin's defense ranks 12th nationally versus the run (111.3 yards).

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12, 8-5 ATS): The Cardinal also feature a top back in Stepfan Taylor, who ran for 1,442 yards and 12 touchdowns to become the school's all-time leading rusher. Taylor had three straight 100-yard games after Kevin Hogan was inserted as the starting quarterback. Stanford's offense picked up with Hogan as the starter, scoring at least 27 points in four of his five appearances. Hogan completed 72.9 percent of his passes and his mobility added a new dimension to the offense. His top target is star tight end Zach Ertz, who set school records with 66 receptions and 837 yards and had 11 catches in the upset of Oregon. Linebacker Trent Murphy is the leader of a defense that led the nation with 56 sacks and 120 tackles for losses. Ed Reynolds is a big-play safety who intercepted six passes this season and returned three for touchdowns.

Orange Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles (-13, 58.5)

DISCOVER ORANGE BOWL GAME STORYLINES

1. Northern Illinois gets a chance to prove the pundits wrong when the 16th-ranked Huskies face No. 12 Florida State, which earned its ticket to the Orange Bowl by holding off Georgia Tech 21-15 in the ACC championship game. The BCS-busting Huskies are riding a 12-game winning streak, highlighted by their 44-37 double-overtime victory over Kent State in the MAC title game.

2. Florida State ranks second in the country in total defense while holding opponents to less than 10 points five times this season. They’ll be tested by a Northern Illinois squad that ranks ninth in scoring offense and rushing offense. The teams are meeting for the first time, and it’s also the first bowl meeting between the ACC and MAC.

3. Northern Illinois’ Rod Carey will make his head coaching debut after replacing Dave Doeren, who accepted the top job at North Carolina State after the MAC title game. The 41-year old Carey previously served as the Huskies offensive coordinator. Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, defensive ends coach D.J. Eliot and special teams coordinator Eddie Gran are all leaving for other jobs, and it’s unclear whether they’ll be staying with the Seminoles for the Orange Bowl.

LINE: Florida State opened as a 14-point favorite and has been bet down to -13. The total opened at 58 and has climbed to 58.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in Miami is calling for partialy cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SSE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Seminoles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies last five bowl games.
* Under is 8-1 in Seminoles last nine non-conference games.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (11-2, 7-1 ACC, 3-9 ATS): Quarterback EJ Manuel threw for 3,101 yards and running back James Wilder, Jr. scored two touchdowns in the ACC title game, but the Seminoles are defined by their defense. They’ve given up only 22 touchdowns while allowing 15.1 points per game. Florida State, which is 3-5 all-time in the Orange Bowl, ranked third in the country in pass defense (160.8 yards) and fourth in rushing defense (93 yards). The impressive secondary is led by Xavier Rhodes, Lamarcus Joyner and Ronald Darby, who was named the ACC’s top defensive freshman. Bjoern Werner, a 6-4, 255-pound defensive end, was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year after recording 13 sacks.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-0 MAC, 9-2-2 ATS): The Huskies’ only loss came in their season opener when Iowa escaped with an 18-17 victory. Quarterback Jordan Lynch is a dual threat who leads the nation in total yards (4,733) and ranks third in total yards per game (364.08). In his last nine games, he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 17-to-2, and he rushed for at least 100 yards in 12 games this season. Junior Akeem Daniels became a key part of the offense in the last two games, when he had 29 carries for 240 yards and five touchdowns. Alan Baxter collected a team-high 11 sacks for the Huskies’ defense, which held opponents to 19 points per game.