College Football Betting News and Notes Wednesday 11/14

Wednesday's MAC Action
By Sportsbook.ag

Toledo (8-2) at Northern Illinois (9-1)

Line: Northern Illinois -10.5

Northern Illinois looks to stay unbeaten in MAC play when it hosts high-powered division rival Toledo on Wednesday night. The winner of this game will most likely be the MAC West champion. These MAC West rivals have met for each of the past 15 seasons, with Toledo going 11-4 SU (9-5-1 ATS). But NIU has taken three of four (SU and ATS), including two straight, winning 65-30 in 2010 and 63-60 last year with a game-winning TD with 19 seconds left in regulation.

This season, the Huskies have rolled through conference play, going 6-0 (SU and ATS) and winning by an average score of 47.2 to 15.2 PPG. However, the Rockets have also been great in-conference, going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS), with 36.3 PPG, but allowing 28.0 PPG. NIU is the better team, but this spread is way too large. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 8+ straight SU wins, carrying a win pct. of at least 80% facing a good team (60% to 80% win pct.) are just 13-40 ATS (24%) since 1992. Also, Toledo is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and Northern Illinois is just 6-16 ATS (27%) after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992.

Toledo is coming off a 34-27 home loss to Ball State, where it outgained the Cardinals 526 to 446 in total yards and 311 to 166 in rushing yards. David Fluellen rushed for 200 of those on 34 carries (5.9 YPC), giving him a ridiculous 1,094 rushing yards (182 per game) and 9 TD in six games versus MAC opponents this year. He is now tied for second in the nation with 138.1 rushing YPG, averaging a hefty 6.0 YPC this year. Fluellen had just eight carries for 31 yards in last year's loss to NIU. Rockets QB Terrance Owens played sparingly in the 2011 meeting with the Huskies (1-for-2, 3 yds), but totaled 211 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the 2010 loss in Dekalb. Owens has been solid this season (2,412 pass yds, 14 TD, 5 INT), but has thrown just 5 TD and 5 INT over his past six games.

The Rockets defense continues to struggle in 2012, especially against the pass, where they allow 288 passing YPG (9th-most in FBS). They have surrendered at least 200 passing yards in all 10 of their games this year, giving up 280 in last week's loss to Ball State. Toledo's run defense has also been shoddy in the past four weeks, allowing 228 rushing YPG on 6.1 YPC. The one positive for the defense is that the Rockets continue to force turnovers, tallying 14 takeaways in the past six games. They could be without senior S Mark Singer (41 tackles, 2 INT), who missed last week's loss with a knee injury.

Northern Illinois ranks ninth in the nation in scoring (40.6 PPG), thanks mostly to dual-threat QB Jordan Lynch, whose 352 total YPG is fourth-most in the nation and his 134 rushing YPG ranks fifth among all FBS players. The junior has not thrown an interception in MAC play this year (155 pass attempts), piling up 12 TD through the air and 11 TD on the ground during this six-game stretch. Senior WR Martel Moore has 8 touchdown grabs in his past nine games, but in three career meetings versus Toledo, he's totaled just five catches for 37 yards.

The NIU defense has given up just 17.9 PPG (15th in FBS), holding three of the past four opponents to seven points or less, including last week's 63-0 shutout of Massachusetts. The Huskies have gotten great penetration at the line with 2.8 sacks per game (T-17th in FBS), including a MAC-best 7.4 Tackles For Loss per game. They have also done a stellar job of forcing mistakes, causing 16 turnovers in six games versus MAC opponents.

Toledo at Northern Illinois: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Toledo Rockets at Northern Illinois Huskies (-10.5, 63)

THE ODDS: This spread has bounced around between 10.5 and 11 since it opened, but BetOnline.ag saw a massive drop in the total. They opened the number at 69 on Sunday and dropped it a full touchdown to 63 Monday afternoon. By Tuesday evening, the total had moved back up to 64 at several books.

WHAT THIS GAME MEANS: The MAC West division and a trip to the MAC title game is on the line Wednesday. Northern Illinois leads the division at 6-0 in conference play while Toledo is in second at 5-1.

STREAKS: Northern Illinois is one of the most profitable teams in the country at 8-1-1 ATS this season. The Huskies have covered six straight games and five games as double-digit favorites. Toledo had an 8-game winning streak snapped with a tough loss against Ball State last week.

MORE GAME NOTES:

If you haven't seen Jordan Lynch yet, Wednesday's your chance. Northern Illinois started a Lynch-for-Heisman campaign a couple of weeks ago for their QB. Lynch ranks fourth the country in total offensive yards (3,517), leads all QBs in rushing (1,342 yards), is No. 1 in touchdowns responsible for with 35 (rushing and passing), broke the NCAA record for most consecutive 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback with eight, has gone six straight games without an interception, has thrown just three INTs, etc, etc, etc.

Toledo senior linebacker Dan Molls will be charged with finding a way to slow Lynch. Molls leads the nation in tackles with 132 this season.

From niuhuskies.com: "Northern Illinois, winners of nine straight since a one-point setback to Iowa in the 2012 season opener, own the nation's longest home winning streak at 20 games and have won more consecutive conference games - 14 - than any other school in the Football Bowl Subdivision." Wednesday's game is supposed to be a 'Blackout', where NIU fans are encouraged to don black.

Toledo's last three games played under, all of which had totals between 61.5 and 70.5.

Toledo's defense ranks 106th in the country in yards allowed per game and 116th in passing yards against per game.

The Rockets run a balanced offense with an effective dual-threat QB Terrance Owens and the nation's No. 2 rusher in David Fluellen. Fluellen has dashed for 200 or more yards in two straight games.

Tommylee Lewis returned two kicks for TDs in last year's game, a 63-60 win over Toledo.

NIU ranks No. 2 in the conference in scoring defense (17.9 ppg), total defense (375.4 ypg) and tackles for loss.

Toledo kicker Jeremiah Detmer has made 13 straight field goals.

Toledo's band won't be making the trip to the game. The school is citing costs and school commitments, which is a little strange considering this is the team's biggest rivalry game each season. Toledo says the decision has nothing to do with freshman piccolo player Alex Hritz getting hit last year by NIU linebacker Jamaal Bass, as seen in this video.

NCAAF Week 12

Northern Illinois won last two games vs Toledo, 63-60/65-30 after going 1-9 in previous ten games vs Rockets, who lost last two visits here by 35-31 points. NIU won last nine games since losing opener 18-17 (+8) at Iowa- they've covered last six games, are 12-7 vs spread in their last 19 games as home favorite, 3-1 this year. Toledo had 8-game winning streak snapped by Ball State last week; their only other loss was at Arizona in OT in season opener. Last three Toledo games stayed under the total. Rockets are 8-3 in last 11 games as dog on road, 3-0 this year.

Ohio won three of last four games with Ball State, with last two decided by FG each; Bobcats won 20-17/37-25 in last two visits here. Ohio lost two of last three games after 7-0 start; they're even in turnovers in last three games, after +15 ratio in first seven games. Bobcats are 9-4 as road dogs since '08, 1-0 this year. Ball State is 8-2, covering spread in all eight wins- they were underdog in four of eight wins, and have had plus ratio in turnovers in only one game this season. Cardinals are 2-0 as home favorites this year, after being 1-7 in that role from '09-'11. Four of last five Ball games, three of last four Ohio games stayed under the total.

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