Wednesday Night MACtion: What Bettors Need to Know
By David Payne Purdum
Ohio at Bowling Green (+7, 57.5)
Ohio’s 49-25 beat down of Bowling Green last year was way worse that the score indicated.
Favored by nine, the Bobcats out-gained the Falcons 239-89 in the first half and led 28-3 at intermission.
A year has gone by, but Ohio is the more talented team this year and will bring an extremely balanced attack that is averaging 33 points. The Bobcats (7-3, 5-5 ATS) have won three straight, including Thursday’s 43-28 win at Central Michigan.
In contrast, Bowling Green (4-6, 5-5 ATS) has lost two straight by an average margin of 20.5 points. The Falcons were no match for Northern Illinois and surrendered 623 total yards to the Huskies on Tuesday.
Ohio has covered the spread in nine of its last 10 games in November under coach Frank Solich.
THE LINE
Ohio opened as a 7-point favorite at the Las Vegas Wynn on Sunday, but the number had dropped under the key number and was hanging around 6.5 as of Tuesday evening.
The total opened at 57.5 Tuesday and was holding steady.
WEATHER
Forecasts call for rain throughout the afternoon, but it is expected to stop by kickoff. Wind shouldn’t be much a factor.
INJURY REPORT
Bowling Green starting corner Jeffery Garrett, who missed the Northern Illinois game, is listed as questionable with a hamstring.
Ohio is reporting no recent impactful injuries.
TRENDS
Bowling Green has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings with Ohio.
The Over is 9-1 in Ohio’s last 10 games in November.
Heading into Tuesday night’s Ball State-Northern Illinois games, the seven MAC games played in November had averaged
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) (-2, 58.5)
Pass-happy offenses collide, when one-dimensional Miami (OH) hosts Western Michigan in a MAC showdown between two teams fighting for bowl eligibility.
The RedHawks (4-6, 6-4 ATS), led by junior quarterback Zac Dysert, own the 20th-ranked pass offense, but also the 120th-ranked ground attack, which averages a puny 80 yards per game.
The Broncos (5-5, 6-4 ATS) aren’t much more balanced. Behind quarterback Alex Carder, WMU has the best passing offense in the MAC, averaging 333 yards through the air. But they’re 8th in the conference in rushing.
Western Michigan has played a decidedly tougher schedule. The RedHawks’ have the 118th-ranked strength of schedule; The Broncos are 60th.
THE LINE
The RedHawks opened as 1-point favorites at the Wynn on Sunday. The early money was on the home team, driving the line to -2, where it opened at most books.
Miami has performed well when facing teams with similar talent, covering the spread in five of its last six games as a favorite of three or less.
The total opened at 58.5.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
The two teams did not play last year. Western Michigan handled Miami, 48-28, as a 15.5-point favorite in 2009 and has won the last two meetings.
INJURY REPORT
Neither team is reporting any recent impactful injuries.
WEATHER
It will be chilly with temperatures in the 30s, but no precipitation or significant wind is forecast.
TRENDS
Under is 4-1 in RedHawks last five games in November and 5-2 in Western Michigan’s last seven games in November.
Western Michigan is 5-22-1 straight-up all-time in Oxford, Ohio.
NCAAF Week 12
Only second meeting since '06 between Western Michigan/Miami; this is Broncos' first visit here since 2001. Western won 48-26/27-24 last two series meetings. Broncos lost three of last four games; they scored 63 in last game but still lost- they're 1-5 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 24-3-29-4 points. Five of last six Western games, six of last nine Miami games went over the total. Miami won/covered last three home games, winning by 7-28-32 points. Broncos allowed an average of 334.5 rushing yards in their last four games. Miami is 4-8-1 in its last 13 games as a home favorite. Western is 6-10-1 as a road underdog.
Ohio won three of its last four games against Bowling Green, winning by 24-7-11 points; Bobcats won last two visits here, 44-27/38-27. Falcons lost five of last six games, scoring 13-15-14 points in last three- they've lost three of last four home games, are 4-6 as home dog under Clawson. Ohio won/covered last three games, scoring 37-35-43 points; they're 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite, 3-1 this year. Four of Bobcats' last five games went over the total. Bowling Green is just 8-42 on 3rd down in last three games; they've got only three takeaways in last six games. Bobcats have 761 rushing yards in their last three games.