Wednesday's Early Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Memphis vs. Auburn
The Birmingham Bowl shouldn’t have a hard time getting fans in the seats this year with Auburn and Memphis colliding at Legion Field. As of Tuesday, most betting shops had Auburn (6-6 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) listed as a three-point favorite with a total of 62.5 points for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Tigers were +140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).
Auburn has had back-to-back disappointing seasons since going to the BCS Championship Game in the first year of Gus Malzahn’s tenure. Many pundits, including this knucklehead on the keyboard, had Auburn pegged to be a national-title contender. But putrid quarterback play, an injury to Carl Lawson and general issues in all three phases resulted in a .500 record made possible only by an overtime win at home over Jacksonville State that required a furious rally to force the extra session at the end of regulation.
Auburn won’t have defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who bolted The Plains to replace Steve Spurrier as South Carolina’s next head coach. Therefore, linebackers coach Lance Thompson will serve as the interim DC in the Birmingham Bowl. As for the next full-time DC, AU is reportedly in talks with Mississippi St. DC Manny Diaz, but there has been no announcement on this front.
Memphis (9-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) enjoyed another outstanding season under head coach Justin Fuente, prompting him to take a better job at Virginia Tech. The interim coach for the bowl game is Darrell Dickey, the former head coach at North Texas who has been the Tigers’ offensive coordinator. Dickey will be retained by new head coach Mike Norvell in a to-be-determined position.
Memphis is hoping to post 10-win seasons in consecutive years for the first time in school history. The Tigers rank seventh in the nation in scoring, averaging 42.7 points per game. They scored a school-record 512 points.
Memphis won its first eight games, including scalps of bowl-bound foes like Bowling Green, Cincinnati, USF, Ole Miss and Tulsa. However, the Tigers would drop three straight vs. Navy (45-20), at Houston (35-34) and at Temple (31-12). They avoided a four-game losing streak by smashing SMU by a 63-0 count in the regular-season finale. Junior quarterback Paxton Lynch completed 9-of-14 passes for 222 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception. The seven TD passes were distributed to seven different players. The defense limited the Mustangs to 93 yards of total offense.
Lynch has completed 280-of-406 passes (69.0%) for 3,670 yards with an amazing 28/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mose Frazier has been Lynch’s favorite target, hauling in 66 receptions for 750 yards and four TDs. Anthony Miller has made 44 catches for 684 yards and five TDs, while Phil Mayhue has snared 47 balls for 644 yards and one TD.
Memphis RB Doroland Dorceus has rushed for a team-best 613 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Dorceus also has 11 receptions for 217 yards and three TDs. Jarvis Cooper and Sam Craft have rushed for five TDs apiece and 363 and 321 yards, respectively. Jamarius Henderson has also rushed for 310 yards and four TDs, so there’s obviously depth galore in the backfield.
Auburn lost four of its last six games both SU and ATS, including a 29-13 loss to Alabama as a 14.5-point home underdog. The Tigers were ahead of the number the entire game until Derrick Henry busted off a 25-yard TD run with 26 seconds remaining. Jeremy Johnson completed 10-of-23 throws for 169 yards and one TD without an interception. Jovon Robinson rushed for 51 yards on 14 carries.
Malzahn hasn’t announced a starting QB yet. Johnson was the starter at the beginning of the season and has been since Sean White was injured in a home game vs. Ole Miss. For the season, Johnson has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,042 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 111 yards and five TDs. After throwing five interceptions in the first two games, Johnson has a 6/2 TD-INT ratio in the last seven games he’s appeared in. White has connected on 57.7 percent of his passes for 1,064 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions.
Auburn RB Peyton Barber has rushed for a team-best 976 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.3 YPC. Robinson has run for 513 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. Ricardo Louis is AU’s best WR, hauling in 45 receptions for 699 yards and three TDs.
These schools have only faced each other twice. Memphis won both meetings in 1975 and ’76.
The ‘under’ is 7-3-2 overall for Auburn.
Totals have been an overall wash for Memphis (6-6), but the Tigers have seen the ‘under’ hit in three straight and four of their last five.
The forecast in B’ham is for temperatures in the 50s, cloudy conditions and a 50-percent chance of rain.
Kickoff is scheduled for Wednesday at noon Eastern on ESPN.
North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State
The Belk Bowl in Charlotte will pit North Carolina State against Mississippi State at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday afternoon. ESPN will have the telecast. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Bulldogs favored by 6.5 points with a total of 60.5.
Mississippi State (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) had a season win total of 7.5, so it exceeded expectations a bit this year and hooked up ‘over’ backers with a winner. Dan Mullen’s team is going bowling and has a winning record for a sixth straight season. The Bulldogs swept through non-conference play and went 4-4 in SEC action. They were single-digit favorites just once, easily covering the number in a 31-13 win at Missouri as 7.5-point road ‘chalk.’
Mississippi State took a four-game winning streak into a Nov. 14 showdown vs. Alabama in Starkville. However, after failing on a fourth-and-goal try from the one on their opening drive, the Bulldogs were thumped by a 31-6 count. They would bounce back to win at 51-50 thriller at Arkansas in come-from-behind fashion, only to lose at home to Ole Miss 38-27 in the Egg Bowl the following week.
MSU is led by senior QB Dak Prescott, who led the team in rushing, passing and touchdowns. Prescott completed 66.9 percent of his passes for 3,413 yards with a 25/4 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 541 yards and 10 TDs. His favorite target is junior Fred Ross, who produced 81 receptions for 933 yards and four TDs. Junior De’Runnya Wilson has 54 catches for 809 yards and nine TDs.
Mississippi State will be without senior DE Ryan Brown, who can’t play due to a foot injury. Brown had 39 tackles, eight tackles for losses totaling 55 yards, 2.5 sacks, 10 QB hurries and five passes broken up. Also, MSU’s defense won’t have starting LB Zach Jackson due to personal reasons. Jackson tallied 44 tackles, four tackles for loss, one sack, two passes broken up and one QB hurry. The Bulldogs are already down their two best DBs, as Will Redmond and Kendrick Market sustained season-ending injuries in October. Finally, TE Gus Walley is also ‘out’ (concussion). Walley had 19 catches for 146 yards and one TD.
North Carolina State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) went 3-9 in Dave Doeren’s first season, but it is back in the postseason for a second straight year. The Wolfpack beat UCF 34-27 as a 2.5-point underdogs at last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl.
N.C. State has been an unmitigated disaster in underdog roles this year, going 0-4 both SU and ATS.
N.C. State started the season 4-0 against a cupcake non-conference schedule, only to limp to a 3-5 ledger in ACC play. Four of those five defeats came by double-digit margins. The Wolfpack posted a 0-5 record both SU and ATS in five contests against bowl-bound opponents.
N.C. State senior QB Jacoby Brissett enjoyed another stellar campaign, throwing for 2,448 yards with a 19/4 TD-INT ratio. In his two seasons with the Wolfpack since transferring from Florida, Brissett threw 42 TD passes compared to only nine interceptions. He rushed for 303 yards and five TDs this year.
N.C. State RB Matt Dayes was en route to an outstanding year, rushing for 865 yards and 12 TDs with a 6.5 YPC average through eight games. However, a toe injury will cause him to the bowl game after sitting out the last four regular-season contests.
Jaylen Samuels is Brissett’s favorite target. Samuels produced 64 receptions for 599 yards and seven TDs during the regular season.
MSU has won three of its five bowl games on Mullen’s watch, but it has posted just a 2-3 spread record. The Bulldogs lost a 49-34 decision to Ga. Tech at last year’s Orange Bowl.
There’s an 80-percent chance of rain in Charlotte on Wednesday with likely thundershowers.
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Bulldogs.
Totals have been an overall wash for the Wolfpack, but it has seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games and four of its last six.
Wednesday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Louisville Cardinals vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Line: Louisville -4½, Over/Under 47
Last Meeting: 1994, Texas A&M (-12½) 26, at Louisville 10
Kevin Sumlin quickly skyrocketed up the college football coaching landscape with success at Houston and a great 11-2 debut season at Texas A&M behind Johnny Manziel, winning the Cotton Bowl after the 2012 season. With high expectations the next season the Aggies faltered a bit but highly rated recruiting classes kept coming in as Texas A&M quickly emerged as a SEC power in quick order in moving to the highly regarded league.
Last season Texas A&M started the college football season with a dominant win at South Carolina to grab the spotlight and the Aggies reached as high as #6 in a 5-0 start to the season. By midseason quarterback Kenny Hill wound up on the bench after the Aggies lost three games in a row and highly regarded freshman Kyle Allen finished out a respectable but disappointing 8-5 season. Allen opened this season as the starter with the Aggies starting off 5-0 and back in the top 10 heading into a big home date with Alabama, but the script would follow a familiar path.
That Alabama game went poorly with an 18-point loss as did the following game with Mississippi and Allen wound up sitting in favor of another prized recruit, freshman Kyler Murray who is also a top baseball prospect. After winning his first start Murray wound up with five interceptions in the next two games and the Aggies went back to Allen. Neither quarterback seemed happy with the situation as both have opted to transfer, just as Hill did after last season. That leaves sophomore Jake Hubenak leading the way for this game with limited experience.
Texas A&M wound up 8-4 for the season but they lost by double-digits in all four defeats including two home losses, finishing only ahead of Auburn in the SEC West with the Tigers beating the Aggies in College Station. One area where the Aggies did improve was on defense, allowing almost a touchdown less per game while allowing 84 fewer yards per game. The Aggies did draw two of the weaker teams in the SEC East and only had one formidable non-conference foe as the schedule was not overly demanding however.
Sumlin is 4-1 in bowl games including 3-0 with the Aggies although there was a missed cover two years ago vs. Duke. The Music City Bowl won’t likely be a huge draw for the program but Louisville is an attractive matchup going up against former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino who has bounced his way back to the major conference level now completing his second season back at Louisville.
The Cardinals went 9-4 last season and gave Clemson and Florida State very close games in the ACC Atlantic. Many felt Louisville was a sleeper in the ACC Atlantic race but the season started poorly for the Cardinals with several big games early in the season. Louisville started the season 0-3 with losses to Auburn, Houston, and Clemson but all three defeats were one-score games and while Auburn wound up having a disappointing season, Houston and Clemson proved to be great teams.
Louisville went on to win seven of the final nine but only once did Louisville beat a bowl team and four of five ACC wins came by seven or fewer points. Three different quarterbacks played for Louisville this season with freshman Lamar Jackson seeing most of the action with uneven results, ultimately passing for just over 55 percent completions and throwing for 10 touchdowns. Jackson ran for over 700 yards to lead the team in rushing but he also threw eight interceptions and took 25 sacks.
Turnovers were an issue for Louisville this season with 27 on the season as while the defense forced 24 takeaways the Cardinals had a negative turnover margin for the first time since 2011 after being +35 the past three years combined. The Aggies also had a slightly negative turnover margin at -4, with the Aggies having a negative turnover margin now in six of the last seven seasons. Last season in bowl action Louisville lost badly to a SEC team, losing 37-14 vs. Georgia in the Belk Bowl with the Cardinals allowing nearly 500 yards.
Louisville’s defense allowed just 323 yards per game this season, the 13th best average in college football despite a much more modest scoring average for the defense with the Aggies allowing about a field goal less per game on the season compared with Louisville. Louisville did allow 100 points in the final three games of the season however while Texas A&M allowed just 113 points in the final six games of the season despite going just 3-3 down the stretch.
The line on this game has moved dramatically with the Aggies opening as a slight favorite but Louisville now favored with the quarterback moves for Texas A&M. The total is also among the lower bowl totals with the Aggies expected to take a hit on offense with Hubenak having just 12 completions under his belt.
Wisconsin Badgers at Southern California Trojans
Line: USC -3½, Over/Under 50½
Last Meeting: 1966, at USC 38, Wisconsin 3
USC opened the season on the short list of national title contenders in Steve Sarkisian’s second season in Los Angeles, returning a lot of talent from a 9-4 squad the previous year but a team that had wins over Stanford, Notre Dame, and Nebraska. The Trojans won convincingly in the first two weeks of the season despite surrendering some yardage but at home vs. the Cardinal in week 3 the Trojans wound up on the wrong side of a shootout.
USC best Arizona State but then on a Thursday night game off a bye week the offense disappeared in a low-scoring loss to Washington at home. Word came out that Steve Sarkisian was having some issues off the field and ultimately it was announced he was taking a leave of absence just days ahead of the big game with Notre Dame. Sarkisian was ultimately fired hours later and offensive coordinator Clay Helton resumed coaching the rest of the season, with Helton losing the interim tag after the late season win against UCLA.
USC wound up 8-5 on the season after losing again to Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game. While all of the losses came against quality teams four of the five defeats came by double-digits. As a three-year starter Cody Kessler has passed for over 10,000 yards but his numbers this season slid back a bit after being considered a Heisman Trophy candidate as the season started, throwing for just 28 touchdowns after having 39 last season with lesser marks pretty much across the board. JuJu Smith-Schuster was Kessler’s favorite target with 85 receptions for nearly 1,400 yards as one of the most productive receivers in the nation.
USC wound up with three running backs combining for nearly 2,300 yards, generally something Wisconsin is known for and part of the reason Kessler’s numbers declined a bit. USC rushed for 176 yards per game this season on 4.6 yards per carry as the Trojans enter this game as the superior rushing team despite Wisconsin’s reputation. With Paul Chryst in his first year back at Wisconsin the offense ran the ball about eight fewer times per game and had less than half of the production on the ground compared to last season when the team ran for 320 yards per game.
Injuries were a big issue in that regard with the offensive line losing key pieces throughout the year and Corey Clement, an over 900 yard rusher from last season, playing in just parts of three games. Clement is expected to play in this game and he could have a season high in carries as the Badgers were forced to rely on far less heralded players in the backfield this season.
Despite not always being a fan-favorite Joel Stave would be the quarterback with the most Wisconsin wins if the Badgers win the Holiday Bowl. Starting in parts of four years Stave has had some ups and downs and he had more interceptions than touchdowns this season. He also threw at least 30 times in six different games this season and did not have the protection and complimentary ground game he was used to having, taking 21 sacks this season after taking just 26 the past two seasons combined.
Going 9-3 is nothing to scoff at in a coaching transition but Wisconsin had to feel an opportunity was missed this season with a favorable schedule that featured Maryland and Rutgers from the B1G East and a West division that didn’t appear to have a clear contender. Wisconsin’s three losses came to a 12-1 Alabama team, a 12-1 Iowa team, and a 10-2 Northwestern team and the case can easily be made that the Badgers deserved to win both of the conference games they lost. Wisconsin lost 10-6 hosting Iowa with four costly turnovers as the eventual B1G West champions won despite posting just 221 yards. Wisconsin allowed just 209 yards in the 13-7 defeat vs. Northwestern with the Badgers having three touchdowns called back in the game in a controversial finish.
Wisconsin’s defense wound up leading the nation with just 13.1 points per game allowed as the defense certainly kept the season alive for the Badgers in what could have been a much tougher transition season. Wisconsin was third in the nation in yards per game allowed compared to a USC defense that finished the season ranked 70th. Wisconsin allowed 1.3 yards per play fewer than USC but the Trojans were a full yard better per play on offense. USC also played one of the nation’s absolute toughest schedules with non-conference games vs. Notre Dame and Sun Belt champion Arkansas State as well as 10 Pac-12 games with the conference’s clear worst team Oregon State missing in the conference draw.
USC expected to be in a bigger spotlight but having Helton planted as the head coach moving forward as well as Tee Martin recently announced as the offensive coordinator next season should help the stability of the program in the bowl season. The Trojans haven’t been in a major bowl game since the 2008 Rose Bowl and this will be a second straight Holiday Bowl appearance as the team beat Nebraska from the B1G West last season, blowing a big lead to hold on 45-42 while allowing 525 yards. Wisconsin has been in the Rose Bowl three of the last five years but drawing a program of USC’s stature should keep the interest high despite also having a somewhat disappointing season. Last season the Badgers beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl to end a four game bowl slide in what usually has been tight and dramatic finishes in postseason games with eight of the last nine Wisconsin bowl games decided by 10 or fewer points.
Wednesday's Bowl Betting Preview
By Covers.com
Auburn Tigers vs. Memphis Tigers (+3, 63)
Memphis will head into bowl season without the head coach that guided them into the College Football Playoff Rankings before a late-season swoon. Justin Fuente took the vacant head coaching job at Virginia Tech, and the Tigers brought in former Arizona State offensive coordinator Mike Norvell on a five-year contract to be the new coach, but interim coach Darrell Dickey will guide Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Ala., against Auburn on Dec. 30. Dickey is expected to remain with the program as part of Norvell’s staff moving forward.
Auburn had big expectations heading into the season but ended up falling off the pace as Jeremy Johnson struggled early at quarterback and eventually lost the job before regaining it down the stretch. The junior threw for two touchdowns and rushed for two more in a 56-34 win over Idaho on Nov. 21 that gained the team bowl eligibility but struggled again in a loss to Alabama the next week. Johnson threw only one of his seven interceptions on the season in the final four games.
Memphis will have the best quarterback on the field in senior Paxton Lynch, who might be the top quarterback taken in this spring’s NFL draft. Lynch threw for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions, with seven of those TDs coming on nine completions in a 63-0 victory over SMU in the regular-season finale. Lynch guided an offense that averaged 510.4 yards and 42.7 points.
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Auburn as 2.5-point faves, but that has moved to -3. The total is down to 63 from the opening 64.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-50s with a 98 percent chance of thunderstorms.
TRENDS:
* Auburn Tigers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.
* Memphis Tigers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight vs. SEC.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Auburn Tigers last 10 Bowl games.
* Over is 4-1 in Memphis Tigers last 5 Bowl games.
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (-6, 60)
A pair of potent offenses and dual-threat quarterbacks square off when Mississippi State takes on North Carolina State in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte, N.C. Both teams average more than 400 total yards and 33 points per game, and their talented quarterbacks are the catalysts. Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott has passed for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 541 yards and 10 more scores; N.C. State’s Jacoby Brissett has rolled up 2,448 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 303 yards and five TDs on the ground.
N.C. State should enjoy a de facto home-field advantage. The Wolfpack are playing a short distance from home and have 15 players from the Charlotte area, including TE/FB Jaylen Samuels (315 rushing yards, 7 TDs; 64 receptions, 599 yards, 7 TDs). It will be the third time the Wolfpack have played in the bowl, where they defeated Louisville 31-24 in 2011 and beat South Florida 14-0 in the 2005 game, then known as the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
Both coaches have enjoyed success in bowl games. Dan Mullen has MIssissippi State in its sixth bowl in seven years and has posted a 3-2 record, though the Bulldogs have lost two of their last three bowls – including a 49-34 loss to Georgia Tech in last year’s Orange Bowl. N.C. State’s Dave Doeren is 2-0 in bowl games, including a 34-27 win over UCF in last year’s St. Petersburg Bowl – his first postseason trip with the Wolfpack.
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Mississippi State as a 7-point fave, but that is now -6. The total is up to 60 from the opening 59.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-60s with a 100 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow across the field at around seven mph.
TRENDS:
* Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. ACC.
* Over is 4-0 in Wolfpack last four neutral site games.
* Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six non-conference games.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 47)
Texas A&M will have a new quarterback when it faces Louisville in the Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl on Dec. 30 in Nashville, Tenn. Sophomore Kyle Allen and freshman Kyler Murray, who combined for 2,896 yards, 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while splitting time this year, announced they were transferring out of Texas A&M as the Aggies began bowl preparations. Sophomore Jake Hubenak (a transfer from Blinn Junior College) is the only other Aggies quarterback to throw a pass this season.
The Cardinals, won five of their last six games to qualify coach Bobby Petrino for a school-record sixth bowl appearance, also used two starting quarterbacks this season. Dual-threat freshman Lamar Jackson led the Cardinals in rushing yards (734) and touchdowns (nine) in 11 appearances and six starts. Sophomore Kyle Bolin is a pocket-passer and threw for 1,154 yards, seven touchdowns and six interceptions.
The pressure will be on the two defenses to slow these offenses full of talented, young skill players. The Aggies rank third nationally in tackles for loss - led by Myles Garrett's SEC-best 18.5 - and held teams to 161.2 passing yards. Devonte Fields had 19.5 tackles for loss while the Cardinals ranked 13th in total defense (323.4).
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Louisville as a 3-point dog but that has moved all the way to Louisville -4.5. The total has come down to 47 from the opening 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-40s with a 38 percent chance of rain early on.
TRENDS:
* Aggies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. SEC.
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last four games overall.
USC Trojans vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+3.5, 50.5)
One month after Clay Helton was hired as the permanent head coach at USC, he'll experience his first bowl game when the Trojans meet Wisconsin in the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium on Dec. 30. Helton was hired Nov. 30, two days after USC beat rival UCLA to advance to the Pac-12 championship game, but the Trojans lost to Stanford and ended up in San Diego rather than at the coveted Rose Bowl in Pasadena. Helton fired several of his assistants in the week following his hiring, which could leave the Trojans vulnerable in certain areas.
If the Trojans hope to extend their all-time record to 7-0 against Wisconsin, they'll need to find a way to protect quarterback Cody Kessler. USC has allowed 35 sacks this season, which is tied for eighth-most in the Pac-12, and the Badgers have a premier pass rusher in outside linebacker Joe Schobert. He has produced 18.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks and forced five fumbles, which ties the single-season program record; he could turn it into a long night for Kessler.
Wisconsin hasn't defeated a team with a winning record this season, losing a pair of nail-biters to Iowa and Northwestern, the teams that finished ahead of the Badgers in the West Division of the Big Ten. If they hope to get their first win against a team with a winning record, they'll likely need another big game from running back Dare Ogunbowale, who carried the ball 33 times in the regular-season finale against Minnesota, totaling a career-high 155 yards and a touchdown. There's also a possibility that injury-plagued but talented running back Corey Clement could be available, though he wasn't practicing with the team earlier in the month, instead working with the strength and conditioning staff.
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Trojans as 3-point faves, but that has moved to -3.5. The total remains at the opening number of 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-50s under clear skies.
TRENDS:
* Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Badgers are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Over is 6-1-1 in Trojans last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 7-3 in Badgers last 10 games overall.
Birmingham Bowl
Memphis is 9-3 this year, 19-6 last two years, after being 12-48 in previous five years, but they lost Fuente to Va Tech; they've got best QB on field in senior Lynch. Tigers won bowl LY over BYU in OT; they're 2-0 as underdogs this year. Auburn lost 34-31 each of last two bowl games; four of their last five bowls were decided by exactly three points. Malzahn is 0-2 in bowl games. SEC teams won/covered this bowl as favorites last three years. AAC squads are 1-5 in bowls this year, 2-9 last two years; they covered once in last six games as a bowl underdog.
Belk Bowl
NC State figures to have crowd edge with game in Charlotte, but SEC teams are 24-15-1 as bowl favorites last six years. In last four years, SEC teams are 7-3 vs ACC in bowl games. Last three years, ACC teams are 11-15 SU in bowls. NC State won three of last four bowls; Doeren is 2-0 in bowls. Wolfpack has senior QB who used to play at Florida, so SEC foe won't scare him. Prescott is a senior QB who is 18-7 last two years. Bulldogs are 3-2 in last five bowls, but were favored in all five games. NC State is 0-4 vs spread as an underdog this year, losing all four games by 11+ points.
Music City Bowl
Extreme weirdness for Texas A&M, with top two QBs bolting out of school since regular season ended; #3 QB Hubenak was JC QB LY who is 12-27/92 in cameo action TY. Louisville is 7-2 in its last nine games after an 0-3 start; they're 1-5 vs bowl teams this year, four of its last six games were by 7 or less points. Aggies scored 42.8 ppg, in winning last four bowl games; they're 3-4 last seven games after a 5-0 start, giving up 230+ YR in those games. Sumlin is 4-1 in bowls overall. SEC teams won this bowl three of last four years; favorites covered four of last six. Petrino is 4-4 in bowls; Cardinals are 3-2 in last five bowls.
Holiday Bowl
Pac-12 teams are 5-1 in bowls this year (4-2 vs spread); last three years, they're 14-10-1 as bowl favorites. USC won four of last five bowls, scoring 45 in last two. Last four years, Big 14 teams are 15-7-2 vs spread as bowl underdogs. Last three years, Pac-12 teams are 3-2 vs Big 14 in bowls. Trojan coach Helton won bowl game as interim coach in '13; USC won five of last seven games after a 3-3 start- they allowed 41+ points in last three losses. Wisconsin is on third coach in four years; they're 1-4 in last five bowls, winning in OT LY. Favorites are 13-11 vs spread in bowls; over is 16-8.
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday's Bowl Action
By Sportsbook.ag
MEMPHIS TIGERS (9-3) vs. AUBURN TIGERS (6-6)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Auburn -3, Total: 62
Two teams of Tigers will claw at one another in Wednesday's Birmingham Bowl when Memphis seeks its 10th win against a 6-6 Auburn club.
Memphis (6-5-1 ATS) opened the season with eight straight victories, but allowed 111 points during a three-game losing skid before beating up SMU 63-0 in the regular-season finale. Auburn has been up and down in the win column all season and is tied for the fewest ATS victories in FBS at 2-9-1 ATS. This will likely be the final game for Memphis junior QB Paxton Lynch, who is projected as a high draft pick this spring. Lynch threw 7 TD in his last game to give him 28 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season.
There are plenty of betting trends for both schools on Wednesday, as Memphis falls in the category of excellent offensive teams (34+ PPG) going 52-21 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 since 1992 after allowing 14 points or less when facing an average defense (21-28 PPG allowed). Also, head man Darrell Dickey is 13-4 ATS after a double-digit conference win as a college head coach. But Auburn benefits from a pair of negative trends for its opponent, as Memphis is 5-20 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its last game since 1992 and 16-31 ATS after a win by 17+ points in this same timeframe.
On the injury front, Memphis is the more banged-up of the two schools with four players listed as questionable -- WR Roderick Proctor, WR Jae'Lon Oglesby, OL Taylor Fallin and LB Genard Avery. For Auburn, DL Jaunta'vius Johnson is doubtful to play while DL Prince Tega Wanogho (leg) is questionable.
Memphis has a potent offense that scores 42.7 PPG on 510 total YPG and 6.4 yards per play this season. Despite a passing game that racks up 324 YPG on 9.1 YPA, these Tigers actually rush the ball on 55% of their plays. The ground game helps the club hold the football for 30:43 per contest, as it produces a healthy 186 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC.
Junior QB Paxton Lynch (69% completions, 3,670 pass yds, 28 TD, 3 INT) stands tall at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds, but he has taken just 15 sacks all year. Of his nine completions against SMU, seven of those wound up as touchdowns, giving him eight multi-TD games on the season. Lynch has succeeded by spreading the wealth, as nine different teammates have at least 10 catches this season and eight players have caught at least two touchdowns.
On the ground, Memphis looks mostly to sophomore RB Doroland Dorceus (613 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 8 TD), who has found the end zone six times in the past six games. Defensively, Memphis has been playing great in the past three games where it has held opponents to 22.0 PPG and 317 total YPG, which lowers its season numbers to 27.0 PPG and 407 total YPG.
While these Tigers defend the run very well (138 YPG on 3.4 YPC) their pass defense is below average in surrendering 269 YPG on 8.0 YPA. The unit has also forced seven turnovers in the past two games, which followed a drought of three straight contests without a takeaway. However, their opponent has been outstanding in holding onto the football with only five turnovers in the past eight games combined.
Auburn's inconsistent offense gains 27.2 PPG on 367 total YPG this year, but those numbers are curiously better away from home (30.8 PPG, 371 total YPG). This is a run-heavy offense with 65% of the plays keeping the football on the ground. As a result of this, Auburn gains 192 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, but throws for only 175 YPG on 7.3 YPA. The team's best player is sophomore RB Peyton Barber (976 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 13 TD), who started October with 11 rushing touchdowns during a three-game stretch, but has found the end zone only once in the past five weeks combined. Barber will need to step up to take the pressure off erratic junior QB Jeremy Johnson, who has completed 60% of his passes for 1,043 yards (6.7 YPA), 9 TD and 7 INT. He has been sacked only nine times in his nine games, and has also rushed for five touchdowns in 2015.
Top WR Ricardo Louis (699 rec yds, 3 TD) has 470 more receiving yards than anybody on his roster, but has not put together two great games in a row with inconsistent receiving totals of 47, 154, 79, 137, 0, 22, 90 and 24 over the past eight games. The Auburn defense gives up 27.3 PPG on 422 total YPG this year, and hasn't been very good against either the run (190 YPG on 4.6 YPC) or the pass (232 YPG on 6.6 YPA). Away from home, the unit is allowing a hefty 233 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC. Although Auburn has collected a pedestrian 18 forced turnovers this year, the team has produced three takeaways in two of the past four contests.
NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK (7-5) vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (8-4)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Mississippi State -6, Total: 60
Two teams looking to avoid a season-ending losing skid will meet in Wednesday's Belk Bowl in a Charlotte location that benefits NC State much more than Mississippi State.
The Wolfpack (6-6 ATS) have alternated losses and wins in each of their past seven contests while the Bulldogs (7-5 ATS) had their win-loss pattern began in November. NC State QB Jacoby Brissett (19 TD, 4 INT) and Mississippi State QB Dak Prescott (25 TD, 4 INT) rarely make mistakes, and have led their teams to 33.7 PPG and 33.0 PPG, respectively, this year. The Wolfpack are 6-2 SU in their past eight bowl games, which includes a 31-24 win at the 2011 Belk Bowl. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are also 6-2 SU in their past eight bowls, but were steamrolled by Georgia Tech 49-34 in last year's Orange Bowl.
Both schools have positive trends for bettors to look at, as NC State is 8-0 ATS in the past two seasons after committing one or less turnovers, and is 23-10 ATS away from home when playing with 2+ weeks of rest since 1992. However, Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS this season after playing a home game, and its Wednesday opponent is 1-8 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers since 2013.
The Wolfpack have no new injuries to worry about, but the Bulldogs will be missing TE Gus Walley (concussion), LB Zachary Jackson (personal) and DL Ryan Brown (foot), and could also be without a pair of questionable players in LBs Gerri Green and DeAndre Ward, who are dealing with legal problems.
NC State's offense is scoring 33.7 PPG on 412 total YPG this season, and achieves this through a balance of 56% run and 44% pass. While the Wolfpack rush for an impressive 202 YPG on 5.0 YPC this year, they also throw for a strong 210 YPG on 6.6 YPA. Junior QB Jacoby Brissett has done it all this year, as he has completed 61% of his throws for 2,448 yards (6.7 YPA), 19 TD and 4 INT, and has also rushed for 303 yards and five touchdowns. Brissett had a monster performance in the regular-season finale versus North Carolina when he racked up 334 total yards (206 pass, 128 rush) and four touchdowns (2 pass, 2 rush).
With top RB Matthew Dayes (865 rush yds, 12 TD) out for the season with a toe injury, freshman RB Reggie Gallaspy II (316 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 4 TD) has stepped up in the past two games with 158 yards on 27 carries (5.9 YPC) and a touchdown. The team's biggest receiving threat is 236-pound TE Jaylen Samuels (64 rec, 599 yds, 7 TD), who is coming off a season-high 97 receiving yards against the Tar Heels.
Defensively, the Wolfpack have held opponents to 23.7 PPG on 333 total YPG for the season, but those numbers have jumped to 36.0 PPG and 441 total YPG over the past three games. The defense is on the field for only 26:52 per contest, but still allows 144 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 188 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA. This unit has also figured out how to make plays on the football, as they have forced 14 turnovers in the past four games, which followed a paltry seven takeaways during the first eight contests this year. The Bulldogs will need to be much more careful than they have been during the past four games where they have committed nine turnovers.
Despite possessing the football for only 26:08 per game, Mississippi State's offense has remained strong all season with 33.0 PPG on 451 total YPG. Although the play-calling is divided almost evenly between pass (54%) and run (46%), the yardage totals are nowhere near similar, as the Bulldogs rack up 311 passing YPG on 8.2 YPA and gain only 140 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC.
Senior QB Dak Prescott has completed a hefty 67% of his throws this year for 3,413 yards (7.9 YPA), 25 TD and only 4 INT, but all four of those picks have occurred in the past five games. Despite the interceptions, Prescott has also completed at least 70% of his throws in four of the past six contests where he has amassed 17 touchdown passes.
Junior WR Fred Ross (81 rec, 933 yds, 4 TD) is the top target through the air while fellow junior WR De'Runnya Wilson (55 rec, 822 yds, 14.9 avg) leads the team with 9 TD grabs. Ross has been on a roll with 115+ receiving yards in four straight games where he has caught 41 passes for 500 yards and three touchdowns. The 6-foot-2, 230-pound Prescott is also an accomplished runner with a team-high 541 yards (3.7 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the ground.
The Bulldogs defense has been shredded during the past three games for 39.7 PPG and 446 total YPG, but is still limiting opponents to 22.8 PPG on 388 total YPG for the season. There is no particular area of strength as the front seven is giving up 172 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, while the secondary surrenders 217 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA and 62% completions. Turnovers have not been easy to come by either, as MSU has produced just 12 takeaways all season, including zero in the past two games.
Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril
NC State vs. Mississippi State (-4.5, 60.5)
My power ratings make Mississippi State -5, so the current line is accurate.
NC State has a well-balanced offense that ran for 202 yards per game and passed for 211 yards per game this season. Overall, the Wolfpack averaged 33.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play. But against the five bowl teams they played, NC State’s offensive average dropped to just 24 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.
Mississippi State could run the ball with success, but the Bulldogs were more of a passing team this season. Overall, Mississippi State averaged 33 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that gave up just 26.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play. NC State’s defense was atrocious against bowl opponents as they allowed 37 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.
Mississippi State played the tougher schedule and has the better defense, but NC State should have the crowd edge playing in their own home state. Rain could become an issue in this game as the weather forecast is calling for afternoon showers in Charlotte with the possibility of thunderstorms.