College Football Betting News and Notes Wednesday, November 19

NCAAF Week 13

Horrendous weather in Buffalo area, cars are stranded on highways there. Home team lost last five series games; underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six. Flashes won four of last five visits here, winning 23-7/24-21 in last two. Kent is 1-9 but covered three of last four games, losing last two both 30-20 as 13-point dogs. Bulls snapped 4-game skid with 55-14 win over Akron last week; Buffalo os 2-1 at home in MAC, winning by 8-31.

Favorites covered six of last eight Bowling Green-Toledo games. Toledo won its last four series games, running for 242+ yards in three of four; Falcons lost seven of last eight visits to Toledo, with favorites covering six of last seven series games played there. BG won five of last six games winning last three road games by 5-18-17 points- they held last four foes to 17.3 ppg, after first six scored 42.2 ppg. Toledo is 1-7 vs spread in its last eight games; they're 0-5 as a favorite this season.

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday Night MACtion
By: Craig Williams
Sportingnews.com

The Bowling Green Falcons have clinched the MAC East division title, but the Toledo Rockets are still clawing for a shot at the conference crown. The two teams match up on Wednesday and highlight the latest edition of midweek MACtion.

Bowling Green at Toledo (-7.5)

These teams will find motivation from different sources on Wednesday night. Toledo (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS) has a shot to represent the West division in the MAC title game but needs a win here against their in-state rival to keep those chances alive. Bowling Green (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) has already booked its ticket to the conference championship game but has lost to the Falcons four straight years.

Both teams are dealing with injuries at skill positions. Bowling Green has been cycling through running backs but hasn't missed a beat. When Travis Greene went down, Fred Coppet went for 113 yards against Akron; when Coppet got hurt, Andre Givens ripped off 157 yards and two touchdowns last week against Kent State. Toledo's injury concerns may be more troubling, as its quarterback situation is a mess. Starter Phillip Ely went down with a knee injury early in the season. Then, QB Logan Woodside sustained an ankle injury two weeks ago, and his replacement, Michael Julian, suffered a concussion last week against Northern Illinois. Dwight Macon, who played QB in high school but is listed on the roster as WR, took over and went 8-for-11 for 140 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 111 yards and two TDs. Macon may be called on again tonight.

Bowling Green has alternated losses and wins against the spread in their last five contests, but that's still better than what Toledo has accomplished against the number of late. The Rockets narrowly escaped a fifth straight spread defeat when they lost to Northern Illinois by three as 3.5-point dogs.

The last five Falcons games have stayed UNDER the total. The Rockets haven't trended one way or the other on totals, going 3-3 O/U over their last six games.

Injuries (get injury updates at donbest.com)
Bowling Green RB Fred Coppet (undisclosed) questionable
Bowling Green RB Travis Greene (ankle) questionable
Bowling Green DL Zach Colvin (illness) questionable
Toledo QB Logan Woodside (leg) questionable
Toledo backup QB Michael Julian (concussion) doubtful
Toledo OL Greg Mancz (knee) questionable

Weather: The forecast calls for temperatures in the high 20s. Snow could come before the game but should subside by kickoff. Winds will be blowing at about 18 mph. Check an updated forecast at weather.com.

The Linemakers lean: Despite having already clinched its division, Bowling Green will be ready to play on Wednesday as it eyes revenge for four-straight defeats to its biggest rival. We look for them to keep this game close and cover the number. We'll also look to go OVER a total in the 64-66 range, as Toledo is tops in the nation in plays per game and both teams know how to score.

Kent State at Buffalo (-7, 42.5)

A note on the total: In case you haven't heard, Buffalo is getting a ridiculous amount of snow. According to Vegas Insider, the Stratosphere, the first book in Vegas to post a total on this game, opened 49.5. It's down to 42.5 at that bet shop.

Kent State is winless in the conference and 1-9 overall (4-6 ATS), so the Golden Flashes are playing for pride at this point. Bettors would argue that they've done that quite well over the last few games, as they're 3-1 ATS in their last four contests. They've also stayed UNDER the total in three straight.

Buffalo (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) still has a shot at bowl eligibility, but they have to win out in order to finish 6-6 on the season. They snapped a four-game losing streak with a 55-24 win and cover over Akron last week. They opened as a 6.5-point favorite at The Wynn Las Vegas and were quickly bet up to -7. The Bulls are 3-3 O/U over their last six games.

Get updated lines and totals at our live odds page.

Injuries (get injury updates at donbest.com)
Kent State LB Darius Redmond (concussion) questionable
Kent State OL Terrell Johnson (ankle) questionable

Weather: Temperatures will hover around freezing and there's an 80 percent chance of snow, with winds at about 20 mph. Check an updated forecast at weather.com.

College Football Betting Previews: Nov. 19
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Kent State (1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U) at Buffalo

Weather: Cloudy. 80 percent chance snow. Southwest wind: 15-25. Gusty. Gametime temperature: 27. Wind chill: 13.

Opening and Current Odds: Buffalo opened as a 7-point betting odds favorite and remained there. The total opened at 49.5 and moved to 44.0.

Last game: (10/26/13): Buffalo (-3) over Kent State, 41-21.

Key College Football Trends

Kent State is
6-2-1 ATS last 9 in November.
4-1 ATS following a SU loss.
1-5-1 ATS last 7 following an ATS win.
0-5-1 last 6 matchups on the under bet in conference.

Buffalo is
6-14-2 ATS last 22 in November.
8-3 ATS last 11 following a SU win.
Home team is 0-4-1 ATS last 5 in series.

Outlook: Kent State comes into this game covering three of their last four games. What does that mean? Even though they have nothing to play for, they are playing hard. Last week, they fell at Bowling Green, 30-20, getting 14. That's usually the case in the MAC, when teams play hard in conference games no matter what their record is. Now Kent State has to get up to play Buffalo on a snowy field. Quarterback Colin Reardon has been erratic this season, completing 56.3 percent of his passes for 2,168 yards with 12 TDs and 15 picks. He did throw for 284 yard last week with three TDs and four picks. Reardon needs to throw because the running game is subpar. Nick Holley leads the way with 421 yards with a score and a 3.8 yards per carry average. They average just 78.8 yards per game rushing. At wide receiver, Casey Pierce has 54 catches for 560 yards and five scores, while Chris Humphrey adds 42 for 512 yards and four TDs. On defense, they allow 436 yards per game and 217.1 on the ground.

Buffalo has had a rough season, survived a coaching change and now they have to face Kent State in a blizzard. The Bulls broke a four-game losing streak last week by crushing Akron, 55-24. They ran for 310 yards, including 178 yards on 32 carries from Anthone Taylor. Quarterback Joe Licata completed 16 of 21 for 193 yards, with four TDs and one pick. Licata is having a strong year, with 2,392 yards, 25 TDs and just 11 picks, while completing 64.2 percent of his passes. Taylor has 1,116 rushing yards and 10 TDs with a 4.7 yards per carry average. Ron Willoughby leads the Bulls with 45 catches for 681 yards and eight TDs. Buffalo averages 427.2 yards per game and 260 in the air. They allow 228 passing yards per game and 177 rushing yards per game.

Bowling Green (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U) at Toledo (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 O/U)

Weather: Mostly cloudy. 60 percent chance snowshowers early. Southwest wind: 12-17. Gametime temperature: 28. Wind chill: 16.

Opening and Current Odds: Toledo opened as a 7-point betting odds favorite and moved to 7.5.

Last game: (10/26/13): Toledo (+4) over Bowling Green, 28-25.

Key College Football Trends

Bowling Green is
20-7 ATS last 27 in November.
15-7 ATS last 22 conference games.
8-2 ATS last 10 following an ATS loss.

Toledo is
3-8-1 ATS last 12 following an ATS win.
6-1 ATS last 7 at home in series.
0-7 last 7 matchups on the under bet in series.

Outlook: Bowling Green is 5-1 in the MAC and have already won the MAC East Championship. They'll be making a second straight trip to Detroit for the title game so they are playing for pride. They do have a revenge factor as the Falcons have lost four straight in this series. At least they have a fairly stable quarterback situation as James Knapke has been solid since taking over for Matt Johnson early in the season due to a hip injury. Last week, he completed 22 of 37 for 315 yards in their 30-20 win over Kent State. Knapke has completed 58.4 percent of his passes for 2,443 yards with 12 TDs and 10 picks. Running back Travis Greene leads in rushing with 644 yards and eight TDs, but has missed time due to an ankle injury. It's not worth playing him tonight, so Fred Coppet (513 yards, 5 TDs) and Andre Givens (415 yards) should see time, though Coppet injred his leg last week. Both he and Greene are considered questionable. They are loaded with talent at wide receiver led by Roger Lewis, who has 60 catches for 859 yards and five TDs and Ryan Burbrink (51 for 610 yards). Defensively, they allow 323.4 yards per game passing and 183.6 yards on the ground. It's amazing they've had so much success with that kind of defense.

Toledo is also 5-1 in the MAC West, in a three-way tie with Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Toledo has a mess at the quarterback situation with Logan Woodside (leg) and his backup Michael Julian (concussion) considered questionable. They lost at Northern Illinois, 27-24, but amazingly covered the 3.5 with wide receiver Dwight Macon taking over at quarterback. Macon took over for Julian and played well, rushing for 111 yards and two TDs, while completing 8 of 11 for 140 yards and a score. He did play quarterback in high school, but that's still a remarkable performance. Running back Kareem Hunt has rushed for over 100 yards in two straight games including 123 against Northern Illinois. He has 985 rushing yards and eight TDs (8.1 yards per carry), which is great considering he's missed three games due to an ankle injury. Toledo's defense isn't much better than Bowling Green's as they allow 310.3 yards through the air and 435 yards per game overall.

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Games of the Day: Kent State at Buffalo, Bowling Green at Toledo
By Covers.com

Kent State Golden Flashes at Buffalo Bulls (-7, 43)

The Kent State Golden Flashes needed 11 hours to get to Buffalo for Wednesday's game against the host Bulls - and they may find it just as difficult to plow through their opponents' improved defense. Buffalo comes into this MAC East Division encounter on the heels of a 55-24 victory over Akron, a game in which the normally inconsistent Bulls defense held the Zips to 229 total yards. The Golden Flashes are playing out the string, having lost nine of 10.

A Kent State bus ride that normally takes 3 1/2 hours was extended by three times that length after a massive snowstorm dumped several feet of snow on the Buffalo area. It's a fitting circumstance facing the Golden Flashes, who are winless in conference play and are coming off consecutive 10-point defeats at the hands of Toledo and Bowling Green. The Bulls will be looking to end their home schedule on a high, coming in with a 4-2 record at UB Stadium.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s with snow expected and wind blowing to the north at 15 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Kent State is a terrible team as they are just 1-9 SU on the season, including 0-5 on the road. The Golden Flashes offense is especially bad as they’ve scored 20 points or less in nine of their 10 games this season. Overall, Kent State is only averaging 15.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play. Buffalo is 4-6 on the season with all four wins coming on their home field. The Bulls have a strong offense that averages 31.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Buffalo’s weakness is their awful defense that is giving up 32.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play, however Kent State's awful offense might not be able to exploit this weakness." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "With the over 70 inches of snow falling in Buffalo the past 24 hours and wind gusts up to 29 mph during game time, the 42.5 point total is getting 75 percent of the action on the Under for the Kent State-Buffalo game. The Bulls are also getting 83 percent of the action as 7.5-point home faves." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT KENT STATE (1-9 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-6-1 O/U): Golden Flashes quarterback Colin Reardon had his most eventful game of the season last time out, erupting for 284 yards and three touchdowns but also throwing four interceptions. He didn't get much help from a rush attack that managed just 22 yards on 14 carries - a far cry from the 171 rushing yards it compiled in a 30-20 loss to the Rockets on Nov. 4. Kent State hasn't even been able to get up for winnable games, going 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records.

ABOUT BUFFALO (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Last week's blowout win over the Zips was a significant one for quarterback Joe Licata, who became the school's all-time leader in touchdown passes. Licata threw his 52nd career scoring pass in the second quarter of the victory to break a tie he had held with current CFL quarterback Drew Willy. The Bulls have been a strong play ATS following blowout victories, going 5-2 in their last seven when coming off a win of 20 or more points and 4-1 in their last five when scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.

TRENDS

* Kent State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine November games.
* Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games versus teams with losing records.
* Under is 5-0-1 in the Golden Flashes' last six conference games.
* Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets (-6.5, 54)

The Battle of I-75 has even more meaning than usual for the Toledo Rockets, who host the Bowling Green Falcons on Wednesday in the thick of a playoff mess in the MAC West Division. Last week's 27-24 loss to Northern Illinois dropped the Rockets into a first-place tie with the Huskies and Western Michigan, leaving Toledo needing a win over Bowling Green to remain in the hunt for a spot in the MAC title game. The Falcons come in having already won the East.

Bowling Green may have already booked its spot in the conference championship, but that doesn't mean the Falcons are ready to roll over for their rivals. The Falcons have lost four straight games in the storied series, and will be looking for revenge following last year's heartbreaking 28-25 home defeat. It's the final home game of the season for Toledo, which will wind down its quest for a division championship Friday, Nov. 28 with a game at Eastern Michigan.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with snow in the forecast and wind blowing to the northeast at 17 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Bowling Green and Toledo both have winning records on the season. The Falcons are 7-3 while Toledo is 6-4 on the year. However, injuries have hampered both teams and most sportsbooks have delayed posting a line on this matchup due to the uncertainty of who is playing. Both teams have terrible defenses. Bowling Green is allowing 32.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents averaging just 27.2 ppg on 5.7 yppl). Toledo is giving up 31.6 points per game on 6.1 yards per play (versus opponents averaging only 27.4 ppg on 5.5 yppl)." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The weather is a little better for the Bowling Green Toledo game up in Toledo. With 12-mph winds during game time, the Under 56-point total is seeing 78 percent of the action and Toledo is getting 79 percent of the action as 6.5-point home faves." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Wins in four of the last five games have allowed the Falcons to emerge as the best of an East division that hasn't been all that competitive. And the division-clinching victory was by no means a gimme, as Bowling Green had to fend off lowly Kent State 30-20 after watching the Golden Flashes close to within three points in the fourth quarter. Running back Andre Givens was the hero with 157 rushing yards and a pair of scores, giving him back-to-back 100-yard performances and TDs in four straight games.

ABOUT TOLEDO (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Toledo enters the most important game of its season with a wide receiver likely taking the quarterback snaps for the second game in a row. Dwight Macon was pressed into duty against Northern Illinois following injuries to Philip Ely (knee), Logan Woodside (ankle) and Michael Julian (concussion) - and he asserted himself well, passing for 140 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 111 yards and two scores. The Rockets have struggled in bounceback games, going 0-4 ATS in their last four contests following a loss.

TRENDS

* Bowling Green is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games against teams with winning home records.
* Toledo is 2-6 ATS in its last eight conference games.
* Under is 12-2 in the Falcons' last 14 games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.