College Football Betting News and Notes Wednesday, November 5

NCAAF Week 11

Buffalo lost its last three games, allowing 31 ppg; they're 0-4 as dogs in 2014, 0-2 on road- they've lost road games by 8-1-10 points. Bulls lost seven of last eight visits to Ohio, losing 38-31/34-17 in last two; the dog is 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games played here. Bobcats are 1-3 in last four games; two of their three I-A wins were by 3 points. MAC home favorites are 5-13 against spread. Hard to back team that fired its coach in-season (Buffalo). Ohio is 3-0 when it scored 23+ points 1-5 if it scored 21 or less.

Northern Illinois won its last five games with Ball State (3-2 vs spread); Huskies ran ball for 910 yards in last three series games- they won last two visits to Muncie, 35-23/59-21. NIU is 5-2 SU but 0-5 vs spread in last five games; they're 3-1 on road this year, winning by 8-14-11, with only loss at SEC's Arkansas. MAC home underdogs are 7-7 this year. Ball State won last two games, scoring 32-35 points, after losing its first five I-A games; Cardinals covered four of five as an underdog this year.

Armadillosports.com

Wednesday College Football Betting Preview
By Covers.com

Buffalo Bulls at Ohio Bobcats (-4, 55.5)

The Buffalo Bulls have been a fan favorite this season - for all the wrong reasons. Buffalo will look to improve its road performance Wednesday night as it takes on the host Ohio Bobcats in Mid-American Conference action at Peden Stadium. The Bulls are 0-3 away from Buffalo on the season while allowing a whopping 120 points combined in those three games - a welcome sight for an Ohio team that is coming off a 42-21 rout at the hands of Western Michigan.

The Bulls would love nothing more than to repeat the success they had against Ohio last season, when they rolled to a 30-3 victory a year to the day of their next encounter. But they'll need to sort out a problem-riddled defense that has surrendered an average of 31 points during its three-game losing streak. The Bobcats have been inconsistent all season and are languishing in their worst stretch of the season, having dropped three of their past four games overall.

WEATHER: Fans at Peden Stadium should expect overcast skies with a 63 percent chance of rain, temperatures in the low-50s and calm winds.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Buffalo and Ohio both have losing records, but of the two, Ohio has played the much tougher schedule. The Bobcats also hold a significant defensive edge in this game as they are only giving up 26.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play compared to the Bulls who are allowing 33.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT BUFFALO (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 O/U): The Bulls have one of the most potent passing attacks in the nation - led by quarterback Joe Licata, who has racked up 2,125 yards through the air with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. But good luck trying to figure out which of Licata's receivers to cover; the junior QB has completed passes to 15 different players on the season, with Ron Willoughby's 36 receptions leading the way. Junior running back Anthone Taylor ranks third in the conference in rushing yards (951) and touchdowns (nine).

ABOUT OHIO (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Bobcats boast a largely underwhelming offensive attack, having scored just 19 offensive touchdowns through the first nine games of the season. This has played a major role in Ohio representing one of the strongest O/U plays in the conference, with only a porous defensive effort last time out against Western Michigan ending a four-game Under streak. Prior to last week, their only two Over plays exceeded the respective totals by a combined 3 1/2 points.

TRENDS:

* Buffalo is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with losing records.
* Ohio is 1-6 ATS in its last seven November games.
* Over is 6-1 in the Bulls' last seven road games.
* Under is 4-1 in the Bobcats' last five home games.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Ball State Cardinals (+3, 63)

If the Northern Illinois Huskies are going to take over top spot in the Mid-American Conference, they'll have to earn it. The Huskies begin a grueling stretch to end the season Wednesday as they visit the Ball State Cardinals in a pivotal MAC tilt at Scheumann Stadium. Northern Illinois is coming off impressive back-to-back victories, the latest a 28-17 triumph over Eastern Michigan; the Cardinals have also won two straight, most recently a 35-21 rout of Akron.

Paced by one of the nation's most potent rushing attacks, Northern Illinois has rolled to 79 points in its past two games but will finish the season with three of four games away from Huskie Stadium. And if that weren't enough, its last three opponents - Toledo, Ohio and Western Michigan - come into the week a combined 10-4 in conference play. But first, a date with a Ball State team that has been impressive in its own right, scoring 69 points in its past two games.

WEATHER: Temperatures at Scheumann Stadium will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the length of the field at 6 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Despite what the straight-up records say, Northern Illinois 6-2 and Ball State 3-5, the Cardinals have actually played better football this season. Ball State has played the tougher schedule, and their defense has played better against tougher offensive opponents. The Huskies’ defense is allowing 26.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 19 points per game on 4.9 yards per play." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Any discussion of Northern Illinois' offensive prowess begins in the backfield, where QB Drew Hare (76 carries, 581 yards, five TDs), Cameron Stingily (91 carries, 477 yards, five TDs) and Joel Bouagnon (76 carries, 414 yards, five TDs) represent one of the most lethal three-pronged attacks in the country. The Huskies are averaging 5.3 yards per carry as a team, and their 21 rushing touchdowns are tied for second in the conference. Hare has been solid throwing the ball, as well, with 11 touchdowns and just one interception.

ABOUT BALL STATE (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, 3-5 O/U): The Cardinals made a quarterback switch in mid-season, taking Ozzie Mann out of the starting role despite the third-year sophomore throwing six TD passes against just two interceptions. He was replaced by fellow sophomore Jack Milas, who hasn't been any more accurate than his predecessor but has a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading Ball State to consecutive victories. Jahwan Edwards is the star of the show on offense, rushing for 828 yards and eight touchdowns while racking up four 100-yard performances.

TRENDS:

* Northern Illinois is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine road games against teams with losing home records.
* Ball State is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.
* Over is 8-2 in the Cardinals' last 10 November games.
* The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Wednesday Night College Football Lines and Picks
By: Craig Williams
Sportingnews.com

The MAC showcases four more teams on Wednesday night when Northern Illinois visits Ball State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN 2) and Buffalo heads to Ohio (8 p.m. ET, ESPN U).

Northern Illinois (-3, 63) at Ball State

With a 3-1 conference record, the Northern Illinois Huskies are in the thick of the MAC Western Division race, and still have an opportunity to take on both Toledo and Western Michigan, the two teams ahead of them in the standings. But first they'll need to handle the 3-5 Ball State Cardinals. NIU opened as a 1-point favorite at The Wynn, but have been bet up to a 3-point favorite .

As of 10 a.m. ET on gameday, favorite bettors could find -2.5 at CG Technology, while those looking to take the points were being offered +3.5 (-120) at MGM Resorts. Check updated spreads and totals on our live odds board.

Even though NIU is 6-2 overall on the season, they're only 3-5 ATS, including five straight losses against the number. Ball State has fared slightly better against the number, posting a 4-4 spread record.

Recent history weighs in NIU's favor, as the Huskies have beaten the Cardinals in five straight seasons. NIU has covered the last two meetings, as 8.5-point home favorites last year (48-27), and as 3-point road favorites in 2012 (35-23). Three of the last four meetings have gone OVER, with posted totals ranging wildly, from 52.5 to 72.5.

The Huskies will lean on QB Drew Hare to spark their offense, particularly their No. 13 ranked running game. Hare is similar to predecessor Jordan Lynch -- a dual-threat weapon at the quarterback position. In fact, he leads the team in rushing (581 yards on 76 carries, five TDs) in addition to throwing for 1,226 yards and 11 more scores (with only one INT).

Injuries ( check injury updates at donbest.com )
Northern Illinois RB Akeem Daniels (undisclosed) questionable
Northern Illinois RB Keith Harris Jr. (undisclosed) questionable
Ball State LB Ben Ingle (ankle) questionable
Ball State DL Blake Dueitt (concussion) questionable
Ball State RB Horactio Banks (hamstring) questionable

Weather: The forecast is calling for a partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid- to upper-40s. Neither rain (24 percent) nor wind (5 mph) should factor into the gameplay. Check wunderground.com for an updated forecast .

The Linemakers' lean: After five straight losses to Northern Illinois, Ball State may be ready for the upset under the lights at home tonight. Ball State has progressively been getting better in its last three games under new starting QB Jack Milas, including outright wins as underdogs in its last two, at Central Michigan (+10.5) and at home to Akron (+3.5). They’ve scored 32 points or more in each of those games while sending the game OVER the total. The week before Ball State upset CMU, CMU handled NIU rather easily, 34-17, at DeKalb, Ill. NIU has failed to live up its rating in its last five, going 0-5 ATS.

Both defenses have some major weaknesses, which should set up for a high-scoring game.

We’ll take Ball State plus the points (+3), and also to win outright (+140), along with the OVER (63).

Buffalo at Ohio (-4, 55.5)

The Ohio Bobcats will likely fall short of a trip to the MAC title game, but at 4-5 overall, they still have a chance at bowl eligibility. They have three more shots to pick up two more wins, and that first chance is Wednesday against the Buffalo Bulls.

If Ohio is going to go on a run to end the season, it needs to get hot soon. They've lost three of four, both SU and ATS. They've also stayed UNDER in four of their last five.

The Bulls haven't been much to write home about either. At 3-5 with four more games on the schedule, Buffalo could still sneak into a bowl bid, but they have an uphill battle. They've dropped three in a row SU and their last two ATS.

Buffalo was a 4-point favorite at home vs. Ohio last season, easily covering in a 30-3 rout. The Bulls have covered three meetings in row, as underdogs of 14.5 and 8 points in 2012 and 2011, respectively. Last season's meeting broke a five-year OVER streak in the series.

Injuries ( check injury updates at donbest.com )
Buffalo RB A.J. Ouellette (ankle) probable
Buffalo RB Daz'mond Patterson (undisclosed) probable
Buffalo RB Papi White (knee) questionable
Buffalo OL Stephen Langenkamp (shoulder) questionable
Buffalo QB Derrius Vick (rest) expected to start
Buffalo OT Jared McCray (knee) questionable
Buffalo S Nathan Carpenter (groin) out for season
Buffalo OL Nick Gibbons (ankle) questionable
Buffalo WR Brendan Cope (knee) questionable

Weather: The forecast is calling for a 63 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the upper-40s. Check an updated forecast at wunderground.com.