College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, October 11th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
S ALABAMA (1 - 4) at TROY (4 - 1) - 10/11/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S ALABAMA is 2-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 1-1 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SOUTH ALABAMA @ TROY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Alabama's last 5 games on the road
South Alabama is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Troy is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Troy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
College Football Week 7
Troy has to come down to earth after upset win at LSU in last game; Trojans are 3-2 vs South Alabama- underdogs are 3-0-1 vs spread in last 4 series games. Troy is 11-21 in last 32 games as a home favorite. USA is 0-4 vs I-A teams, losing road games 47-17 (+21.5) at Ole Miss, 34-16 (+11.5) at La Tech; Jaguars completed las than 50% of passes their last two games- their last three games stayed under total. USA is 3-12 vs spread in last 15 games as a road underdog. Sun Belt home teams are 3-7 vs spread in league games, 1-4 when favored.
Armadillosports.com
South Alabama at Troy
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Troy (4-1 straight up, 1-4 against the spread) has won four in a row since dropping a 24-13 decision at Boise State in the season opener on the smurf turf. The Trojans will put that four-game winning streak on the line Wednesday night when they play host to Sun Belt rival and in-state adversary, South Alabama.
As of early Tuesday, most betting shops had Troy installed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 48. The Jaguars were +575 on the money line (risk $100 to win $575).
Neal Brown’s team bounced back from the loss to BSU with wins vs. Alabama State (34-7), at New Mexico State (27-24), vs. Akron (22-17) and at LSU (24-21). Troy stunned LSU on Sept. 30 as a 20.5-point road underdog.
It wasn’t the first time Troy had LSU on upset alert in Baton Rouge. The Trojans led the Tigers 31-3 early in the third quarter of a 2008 encounter in ‘Red Stick,’ but Les Miles’s team rallied to win a 40-31 decision on that night.
With Ed Orgeron on the sidelines this time around, there was no comeback victory in store for the home crowd. LSU did rally from a 24-7 deficit to pull to within three, but that was as close as it would get.
Senior running back Jordan Chunn was the catalyst, rushing 30 times for 191 yards and one touchdown. Troy rushed for 206 yards compared to 162 for LSU. Brandon Silvers completed 16-of-28 passes for 157 yards and ran for one score. Junior WR Deondre Douglas had three receptions for 46 yards, while senior WR Emanuel Thompson had three catches for 43 yards. Blace Brown and Marcus Jones had interceptions for the Trojans, who won outright over a Power Five school for the first time in 38 tries since moving up to FBS in 2002.
For the season, Chunn has rushed for a team-best 490 yards and six TDs with a 5.4 yards-per-carry average. The first-team All Sun-Belt selection in 2016 leads the league in rushing yards by 13 over New Mexico State’s Larry Rose III. Chunn’s back-up, sophomore Jamarius Henderson, has run for 207 yards and three TDs on just 26 attempts for an 8.0 YPC average.
Silvers has completed 118-of-182 throws (64.8%) for 1,241 yards with a 2/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The 2016 first-team All Sun-Belt pick has also rushed for a pair of TDs. Douglas has hauled in 22 receptions for 279 yards and one TD, while Thompson has brought down 20 catches for 186 yards.
Troy returned six starters from last year’s defense that gave up only 22.1 points per game. This unit has been even better this year, allowing 18.6 PPG to rank 24th in the country in scoring defense. The Trojans are 24th in the nation at defending the run and 32nd in total defense.
Junior safety Cedarius Rookard has recorded a team-high 30 tackles to go with 1.5 tackles for loss and one forced fumble. Sophomore DE Zo Bridges has a team-best 2.5 sacks, while Brown and Kris Weatherspoon have a pair of interceptions apiece. Weatherspoon also has 20 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s and two passes broken up.
South Alabama (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) has lost three games by double-digit margins and hasn’t beaten an FBS team yet. The Jaguars went 6-7 last season but went to their second bowl game in school history. They trounced then-undefeated and 19th-ranked San Diego State by a 42-24 count in Mobile and also won outright at Mississippi State.
Joey Jones’s team brought back just 10 of 22 starters from that squad, and the results have been dreadful. USA lost 47-27 in its opener at Ole Miss, but it did manage a backdoor cover with a pair of fourth-quarter TDs. Next, the Jags hosted Oklahoma State on a Friday night and took a 44-7 woodshed beating.
After a 45-0 home win over Alabama A&M, USA dropped its Sun Belt opener 29-23 to Idaho as a seven-point home favorite. Then in Week 5, the Jags lost 34-16 at La. Tech as 11.5-point underdogs.
Gavin Patterson’s 46-yard field goal pulled USA to within one (17-16) in Ruston with 5:20 left in the third quarter, but the Bulldogs would respond with 17 unanswered points to seal the deal and cover the number. USA junior QB Cole Garvin threw for 235 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice. Xavier Johnson ran for 89 yards on just 12 carries, while Jamarius Way had five catches for 67 yards and one TD.
Garvin and Dallas Davis have split time at QB. Garvin injured his ankle early in the loss to Oklahoma State, while Davis wasn’t available at La. Tech due to a shoulder injury. Garvin will get the starting nod at Troy, Jones announced on Monday. But Davis is available if Garvin gets injured or is ineffective.
Garvin has connected on 41-of-77 passes (53.2%) for 447 yards with a 2/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has a pair of TDs rushing. Davis has completed 33-of-60 throws (55.0%) for 487 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. Johnson has rushed for a team-best 345 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.1 YPC. Way has a team-high 18 receptions for 297 yards and two TDs.
USA’s secondary has major issues. First of all, its best DB Jalen Thompson was ruled academically ineligible over the summer and is out all season. Thompson had four interceptions and six PBU in 2016. Starting sophomore CB Bobby Floss was lost to a season-ending injury in Week 2, and starting safety Neiko Robinson is ‘questionable’ at Troy due to a foot injury.
Robinson has missed four consecutive games since going down in the opener at Ole Miss. He had 64 tackles and one interception last year. The Jags are ranked No. 119 of 130 FBS teams in pass defense.
South Alabama owns a 13-15 spread record in 28 games as a road underdog during Jones’s nine-year tenure, going 1-1 in two such spots this year. However, the Jaguars have limped to a 4-12 ATS mark in their last 16 contests as road ‘dogs.
During Brown’s three-year run at Troy, his team has struggled to a 5-7 spread record in 12 games as a home favorite. The Trojans are 0-2 ATS in a pair of such spots this season.
The ‘under’ is a perfect 5-0 for Troy, going 2-0 in its home games. The Trojans have watched their games produce average combined scores of 42.6 PPG.
The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for the Jaguars, 1-1 in their two road assignments. Their games have averaged combined scores of 54.4 PPG. Assuming the total remains in the 40s, it will be the lowest USA has seen this year.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
In the 2011 season opener for the defending national champions, the Auburn Tigers took on Utah State at Jordan-Hare Stadium. With a three-point lead and less than three minutes remaining, the Aggies were in the red zone about to attempt a field goal to go up by six. However, then-head coach Gary Andersen called for a fake field goal that worked perfectly. I loved the call and Utah State’s true freshman QB Chuckie Keeton, who would win me all sorts of greenbacks over the next few years before multiple knee injuries left him a shell of his former self for his fifth-year senior campaign. Utah State’s 10-point lead didn’t hold up, though, as Auburn scored a TD on the ensuing drive, executed an onside kick and got a game-winning TD in the final seconds. Nevertheless, I became a fan of Andersen, who would eventually land the Wisconsin job. Andersen lost me when he made an incomprehensible decision at crunch time while trailing 32-30 at Arizona State. The Badgers were just inside the red zone with about 20 seconds left and zero timeouts remaining. He had the QB kneel on the ball to center it between the hashes for the field goal. As it turned out, though, the Arizona State d-linemen held the UW o-linemen on the ground to purposely delay them getting set up for the game-winning field goal. Sure, the refs probably should’ve flagged the ASU players for a delay of game, but why on earth would he put the onus on the officials?! Wisconsin ended up not getting to kick the field goal as time ran out. In case you’re wondering, UW still covered the number as a four-point underdog that night in Tempe, but I was on the Badgers plus the points and on the money line. Therefore, I was obviously pissed and understandably so. At that point, I was out on Andersen, who went 20-7 in two seasons with the Badgers before inexplicably bolting to take the job at……wait for it…..Oregon State...Say what?! You could make a valid argument that Oregon State might be the toughest Power Five head-coaching gig in the country. Anyway, Andersen predictably struggled in Corvallis, going 7-23 in his first 30 games. Then on Monday, Andersen and Oregon State mutually agreed to part ways. But here’s the kicker: Andersen told OSU not to worry about the $12 million (and change) that he was owed. I’m certainly not dialed in on what goes on way out in Corvallis from my home in the Sunshine State, but it certainly appears (admittedly from a great distance across the country) that Andersen has quit on his players for a second time in the last 3.5 years. Who the hell is advising him on career decisions these days? I’ll be shocked if he’s ever able to score another head-coaching job, at least one of any significance.
After injuring his ankle in last week’s 28-14 non-covering home win over Wake Forest, Clemson junior QB Kelly Bryant has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Friday night’s game at Syracuse.
New Mexico State star WR Jaleel Scott has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game at Ga. Southern. Scott leads the Sun Belt with 35 receptions for 543 yards and five TDs. The Aggies are on the road for a third straight week, venturing to Statesboro after road dates at Arkansas and at Appalachian State. The spot is ideal for the Eagles, who have three extra days of rest after losing at home to Arkansas State last Wednesday. New Mexico State backers took an unfathomable Bad Beat last week when the Aggies allowed a 31-24 mid-fourth-quarter lead to get away in a 45-31 loss as 13.5-point underdogs against the Mountaineers. NMS QB Tyler Rogers threw for 356 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted six times. Rogers lead the Sun Belt in passing yards (2,113), TD passes (16) an interceptions (11).
Toledo star WR Cody Thompson is 'out' for the season due to a broken leg sustained in last week’s 20-15 non-covering win over Eastern Michigan. Thompson was a first-team All-MAC selection in 2016 when he hauled in 64 receptions for 1,269 yards and 11 TDs. He had 28 catches for 537 yards and four TDs this year. This is a huge loss for the Rockets, who play at Central Michigan this week.
Props to this Week 6 Baller: Khalil Tate led Arizona to a 45-42 win at Colorado. His insane stat line looked like this: 11-of-12 passes completed for 142 yards and one TD without an interception. Although he had only 14 attempts, Tate produced an FBS-record for a QB with 327 rushing yards and four TDs on runs of 58, 28, 47 and 75 yards. Brandon Dawkins can look forward to some pine time as long as Tate remains healthy for the Wildcats, who host UCLA in Week 7.
There are 13 unbeaten teams left: South Florida, UCF, Clemson, Miami, Navy, Penn State, TCU, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Georgia, Alabama, Washington, Washington State.
Are Florida and Florida State vying for who is the fourth-best team in the state behind Miami, UCF and USF? It certainly appears so. Both teams have issues galore on offense. The Seminoles might have the worst offensive line of any Power Five team in college football, while the Gators put their fans through four hours of torture every Saturday watching a maddeningly pedestrian offense.