College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, October 12th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.
APPALACHIAN ST (3 - 2) at LA LAFAYETTE (2 - 3) - 10/12/2016, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-1 against the spread versus APPALACHIAN ST over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Appalachian State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Appalachian State is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Appalachian State at LA Lafayette
Appalachian St: 3-10 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56
LA Lafayette: 4-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
App State at UL-Lafayette
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
UL-Lafayette ripped off four consecutive 9-4 seasons that were each capped by wins at the New Orleans Bowl to start Mark Hudspeth’s tenure. Before his arrival, the Ragin’ Cajuns had never been invited to the postseason.
Since the start of the 2015 campaign, however, Hudspeth’s program has lost 11 of 17 games. UL-Lafayette could be staring at another defeat on Wednesday if the oddsmakers are correct.
As of Tuesday night, most books had Appalachian State (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) installed as a 10-point road favorite for its trip to Cajun Field. The total was 48.5 points, while UL-L was +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300). For first-half wagers, the Mountaineers were favored by six with a total of 24.5.
Scott Satterfield’s team dropped a heartbreaker at Tennessee in Week 1. Appalachian State led 13-3 against the Volunteers at halftime, but a missed extra point in the first half and a sliced 42-yard field goal in the fourth quarter allowed UT to force overtime.
Then in the extra session on a third-and-goal play, UT quarterback Josh Dobbs scrambled to his right and dove for the end zone. An Appalachian State defender stuck Dobbs and forced a fumble, but Jalen Hurd recovered for the Vols to give them a touchdown.
When a fourth-and-five throw to the end zone was off the mark, Tennessee collected a fortunate 20-13 victory even though the Mountaineers easily took the cash as 21-point road underdogs. The 33 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 58-point total.
After thumping Old Dominion 31-7 as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ Appalachian State welcomed Miami to Kidd Brewer Stadium for the biggest home game in the program’s history. It didn’t go as Satterfield would’ve hoped. The Hurricanes raced out to an early lead and coasted to a 45-10 win as 4.5-point road favorites.
Not only did ASU get thumped, but it also lost star RB Marcus Cox to a leg injury. Cox, who was a second-team All Sun Belt selection in 2015 when he rushed for 1,423 yards and nine TDs, has missed back-to-back games since the loss to UM. He is listed as ‘questionable’ this week.
Appalachian State bounced back from the loss to Miami to capture a 45-38 win at Akron as a 4.5-point road favorite. The 83 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 56-point total. Junior QB Taylor Lamb and sophomore RB Jalin Moore stole the show against the Zips.
Moore was a workhorse, rushing 39 times for 257 yards and two TDs. He ripped off TD runs of 32 and 49 yards. Lamb connected on 22-of-30 throws for 280 yards and three TDs without an interception. Lamb also had a one-yard TD run.
In its last outing on Oct. 1, ASU beat Georgia State 17-3 but failed to cover the spread as a 19-point home favorite. Moore rushed for 159 yards and one TD on 28 carries, while the defense limited the Panthers to 241 yards and produced four interceptions.
Moore has rushed for a team-high 564 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Before getting injured, Cox had run for 278 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.7 YPC. Lamb has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 827 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior TE Barrett Burns has 10 receptions for 170 yards and one TD.
UL-L (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) has dropped back-to-back games in six total overtimes and by eight combined points. That’s right, the Ragin’ Cajuns lost a 41-39 decision at Tulane in four OTs on Sept. 24. Then on Oct. 1, they lost 37-31 at New Mexico State in double overtime.
In the defeat against the Green Wave, UL-L covered the spread as a three-point road underdog. Bettors backing the ‘under’ (46.5 pts.) took a massively bad beat. The score was 16-16 at the end of regulation, but the four extra sessions netted 48 combined points.
Per NCAA rules, both teams have to attempt a two-point conversion starting in the fourth OT. Tulane scored first and converted its two-point try. UL-L answered with a 22-yard TD run by Elijah McGuire, but the two-point pass failed to end the game.
McGuire rushed for 89 yards and a pair of TDs on 38 carries. He also had four catches for 48 yards and one TD. QB Anthony Jennings, the transfer from LSU, threw for 240 yards and two TDs but he was also intercepted twice. Al Riles had six receptions for 70 yards.
Stevie Artigue’s third field goal from 47 yards out with 2:58 remaining forced overtime in the loss to the Aggies in Las Cruces. Jennings was benched after throwing a second interception that resulted in a pick-six. Darius Hoggins rushed 12 times for 81 yards and one TD, while Riles had eight catches for 110 yards.
UL-L opened the season by getting blasted at home by Boise State, 45-10, as an 18.5-point home underdog. The Ragin’ Cajuns would respond with consecutive wins vs. McNeese State (30-22) and vs. South Alabama (28-23), taking the cash as single-digit home favorites in both instances.
For the season, Jennings has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 995 yards with an 8/6 TD-INT ratio. Riles has been his favorite target, hauling in 26 receptions for 374 yards and one TD. Ja’Marcus Bradley has 15 catches for 237 yards and one TD, while Keenan Barnes has 13 grabs for 148 yards a team-high four TDs.
McGuire, who was the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year two seasons ago, has run for 517 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. Jennings also has two rushing scores to his credit.
During Satterfield’s four-year tenure, ASU owns a 5-1 spread record in six games as a road ‘chalk.’ Meanwhile, UL-L has compiled a 2-1 record both SU and ATS in just three games as a home underdog on Hudspeth’s watch.
The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Mountaineers, 1-1 in their road assignments. The Ragin’ Cajuns have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their home games, 2-2-1 overall.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Jerod Evans has a 15/1 TD-INT ratio while leading Virginia Tech to a 4-1 record. He’s also second on Justin Fuente’s team in rushing with 258 yards and two TDs for a 4.2 YPC average. The Hokies have 40/1 odds to win the CFP at the Westgate SuperBook. When you look at their schedule, it’s not unreasonable to see them winning out in the rest of their regular-season games.
If you look at the Big 12 standings, you’ll see Iowa State with a 1-5 record. However, if you dig a little deeper, you can see that Matt Campbell has the Cyclones improving. In fact, they’ve been a serious money maker for our purposes. Campbell’s bunch has covered the number in four consecutive games and the ‘over’ has hit in all four of those contests as well. ISU took Baylor and Oklahoma State to the wire the last two weeks, nearly winning outright and easily taking the cash as a double-digit underdog in both games.
USF’s Quinton Flowers has 1,317 passing yards and an 11/3 TD-INT ratio. Also, the Bulls QB has 498 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.
Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner has been ruled ‘out’ this week at Maryland.
Stanford star RB Christian McCaffrey is ‘questionable’ at Notre Dame.
Only one team remains unscathed for our purposes and that would be Colorado with its 6-0 spread record.
The worst ATS squads are Oregon (0-5-1 ATS) and FAU (0-6 ATS).
NCAAF Week 7
Appalachian State beat UL-Lafayette 28-7/35-16 last two meetings, running ball for 462 yards while out gaining Cajuns by 162 yards/game. ASU lost to Tennessee, Miami (guarantee games) but won other three games by 24-7-14 points, running ball for 251.7 yards/game vs similar competition- they’re 5-1 as a road favorite since moving up to I-A. ULL allowed 78 points in losing last two games to Tulane/New Mexico State, both on road- they’re 2-1 as home dogs under Hudspeth. Sun Belt home teams are 5-4 vs spread, 2-1 as home underdogs.
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