College Football Betting News and Notes Wednesday, October 4th, 2017

ARKANSAS ST (1 - 2) at GA SOUTHERN (0 - 3) - 10/4/2017, 8:00 PM

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Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against GA SOUTHERN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

ARKANSAS STATE vs. GA SOUTHERN
Arkansas State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Arkansas State is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Ga Southern is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Ga Southern is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home

ARKANSAS STATE @ GEORGIA SOUTHERN
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arkansas State's last 7 games on the road
Arkansas State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Georgia Southern is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
Georgia Southern is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games

NCAAF Week 6

Arkansas State (+8 ) survived a -5 turnover ratio to upset Georgia Southern 27-26 LY; ASU ran the ball for 343 yards. Red Wolves allowed 539 rushing yards in losing their first two I-A games, at Nebraska/SMU- their only win is over a I-AA team; they’re 12-7 vs spread in last 19 games as a road favorite. Ga Southern is 0-3 with a 22-12 loss to I-AA New Hampshire; Eagles are 2-1 as a home underdog since moving to I-A football. Hard to tell much about them since they lost to Power 5 teams (Auburn/Indiana). Dogs covered first five Sun Belt conference games this year.

Armadillosports.com

Arkansas State at Georgia Southern Pick & Preview
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will battle it out with the Georgia Southern Eagles for a little bit of Wednesday night football this week. The Red Wolves are favored by a touchdown across the market with the announcement that quarterback Justice Hansen is probable. Bookmaker has posted a total of 55 for this one as we hope for some fireworks to break up the midweek monotony.

Thus far, based on consensus percentages, nobody is interested in backing Georgia Southern. Only a bet here or a bet there has come in on the Eagles, with well over 90 percent of the action on the Red Wolves. It makes perfect sense, really. Arkansas State is only 1-2 straight up and against the spread, but Georgia Southern has scored a total of 36 points this season en route to a 0-3 straight up record and a 1-2 mark against the spread. The lone cover came in Week 1 against Auburn, when the Tigers had Clemson on deck.

It seems like things are humming right along in Year 2 of the Buster Faulkner offense. The former OC and quarterbacks coach under Larry Fedora is running an offense that has been extremely productive under Hansen. The Red Wolves have had issues defensively, but the offense has picked up 6.1 yards per play, including 352 passing yards per game. Hansen is completing 68.8 percent of his throws with a 10/2 TD/INT ratio. The Red Wolves are 15-1 over the last two seasons straight up in conference games and 12-4 against the spread, so this should be a good spot for them in their conference opener. Warren Wand has averaged 6.1 yards per carry, but the Red Wolves have done a lot of throwing the football this season, so Hansen’s optimistic prognosis for Wednesday’s game is the biggest key.

This should be a good spot for the defense to get on track. The Red Wolves have faced Nebraska and SMU, so they have seen a couple of decent offenses, but have allowed six yards per play. The Red Wolves got to pad some numbers against Arkansas Pine-Bluff and have allowed 43.5 points per game to FBS foes. That is something that Joe Cauthen and the defense will have to clean up. Arkansas State only allowed 21.5 points per game and 5.0 yards per play last season, but this year’s defense has had some bumps in the road. Five starters did return from last year’s unit. In those two road games against FBS teams, the Red Wolves allowed 6.7 yards per play, including 5.9 yards per carry. That rush defense could be a problem against the Georgia Southern offense.

Calling the Georgia Southern offense anemic would be a compliment. The days of Willie Fritz are long, long, long gone. The days of Tyson Summers are not going well. The Eagles have managed 3.8 yards per play. They have averaged 7-of-16 passing for 78 yards and just 3.4 yards per carry on the ground. This team is a very long way from the team that made it to the GoDaddy Bowl in 2015 and hung 58 on the Falcons. Quarterback Shai Werts is 21-of-44 passing for 230 yards and has managed just 2.6 yards per carry on 67 attempts. With a long of 42, Werts has averaged 2.04 yards per carry on the other 66 attempts. LA Ramsby has had some success with 4.6 yards per carry, but it has been a struggle. Georgia Southern has three offensive touchdowns through three games.

Without much of an offense, the defense has been put in some tough spots. Fortunately, the slow and methodical offense eats up a lot of clock, so the Eagles haven’t been on the field a ton, but have allowed 6.3 yards per play. Opposing offenses have racked up 5.9 yards per carry. Last season, the Eagles allowed 5.9 yards per play overall, so this is a group that has experienced some regression as a result of the bad offense. The Eagles only returned 10 starters, so this is a fairly young team on both sides of the ball, but it seems pretty clear that Summers does not have this team going in the right direction. It may surprise some to see this line at seven points, but the slow pace of the Eagles offense does limit the opposing team’s possessions and that has to be factored into the equation.

Still, it’s nearly impossible to take Georgia Southern. The Eagles lost to New Hampshire by 10 in Week 2, had a bye to prep for Indiana, and got blasted. Arkansas State only won by one last season, but had 525 yards of offense. The Eagles were +5 in turnover margin in that game and still found a way to lose. It stands to reason that Arkansas State should have more success minus the turnovers this season.

Pick: Arkansas State -7