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College Football Betting News and Notes Week 1

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College Football Week 1

South Carolina beat Vanderbilt last five years but covered only one of last four; they won 17-13/48-34 in last two visits here. Gamecocks have a new coach and only 9 starters back- they’re 6-9 vs spread on road last three years. Vandy is 2-4 as a home favorite under Mason; they’ve got 15 starters back, have soph QB who started five games LY.

Oregon State was one of youngest teams in country LY but has 13 starters back; Beavers are 2-7 as road underdogs last two years. OSU coach Anderson beat Minnesota 20-7/34-24 while at Wisconsin in 2014-15. Gophers has a new coach and 13 starters back; they’re 10-6 as home favorites last four years. Since 2012, Big 14 teams are 3-7 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team.

Colorado/Colorado State split last four meetings (dogs 3-0-1 vs spread); this game is at neutral Denver site. Buffs have 18 starters back and senior QB who has 29 starts- they’re 6-2 as favorites under MacIntyre. State has only 10 starters back; their junior QB has 13 starts. Rams are 6-5 as underdogs last three years.

Missouri has new coach, soph QB, only one starter back on OL after 5-7 year- they were 1-4 vs spread on road LY. Tigers are 12-5 as road dogs since 2011. West Virginia has senior QB with 15 starts but lost 7 starters on defense; WV is 9-15 as home favorite under Holgorsen. Last five years, Big X teams are 4-2 vs spread when favored against an SEC team; they’ve been underdog in 12 of 20 meetings, with two pick ’ems.

Southern Miss’ new OC Dawson was Kentucky’s OC LY, which can’t hurt. USM has senior QB with 30 starts, 3 senior starters on OL, but their head coach bolted for OC job in NFL. Kentucky has SEC opener with Florida next; they’ve got 4 starters back on OL, but soph QB with only 2 starts. Wildcats are 7-3 as home favorites under Stoops, 7-4-1 in last 12 non-SEC games. C-USA are 14-12 as dogs vs SEC squads the last five years.

Clemson beat Auburn 38-24/26-19 in games played in 2011-12; Clemson coach Swinney is an Alabama grad- his team has junior QB with 20 starts, but only 7 starters back on defense- they’re 2-6 as road favorites last two years. Auburn is unsure of its starting QB; they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as a home dog, but 2-8 in last 10 non-SEC games. Last 5 years, ACC teams are 8-6 vs spread when favored over an SEC squad- they were underdog in 31 of 45 meetings (19-26 vs spread, favorites 28-17).

Pac 12-SEC teams don’t meet often; last five years, SEC teams are 6-1 vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits. A&M’s new QB is former Sooner Knight (15 starts); Aggies are 6-12 as home favorites last 3 years- they’ve got 13 starters back, only 2 on OL. UCLA lost 7 starters on offense; they’ve got soph QB (13 starts), are 13-11 vs spread under Mora, 5-4 as road dogs- they do have 9 starters back on defense.

Last 5 years, SEC teams are 18-8 SU vs Big 14 teams, 13-8-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’08, LSU is just 15-22 vs spread outside SEC; they’re 9-6-1 as favorite last 2 years. Tigers have 17 starters back but can QB make defenses respect their passing game, opening up ground attack for Fournette? Last 6 years, Badgers are 6-2 as underdogs; last 3 years, they are 10-5 outside Big 14. This game is at Lambeau Field, not in Madison.

Georgia has new coach (why?); they’re 12-9-1 vs spread outside SEC, 18-22 in last 40 games as favorite. Dawgs have 14 starters back, 8 on offense; will new coach play vet (12 starts) QB or frosh Eason? North Carolina has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’re 4-7 as road dogs under Fedora. UNC QB Trubisky was 40-47/555 LY, impressive, but this is his first college start. SEC teams are 20-11 vs spread when favored vs ACC squads.

Last 3 years, Houston is 8-0-1 vs spread as an underdog; they’re 29-11 SU, beating ACC teams in last 2 bowls. Cougars have senior QB (25 starts) but only 11 starters back from LY (no senior starters on OL). Oklahoma has senior QB (20 starts), 13 starters back; Sooners are 13-7 vs spread outside Big X last 5 years, 17-11 as favorites last 3 years. Oklahoma has frosh, 4 sophs starting on OL; three of them started LY.

USC has 10 starters back on offense, but new starter is QB; since 2012, Trojans are 3-8 vs spread as underdogs. USC lost 6 starters on defense, but does have whole OL back. Alabama lost 11 starters, has new QB; they’re 8-13 vs spread in last 21 non-SEC games. Last 8 years, they’re 20-12 as road favorites. Last 5 years, SEC teams are 6-1 SU vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits.

BYU/Arizona both have 15 starters back, both have vet QBs (BYU’s has 19 starts, Arizona’s 25). BYU lost bowl games to Pac-12 squads 2 of last 3 years; they’ve got 15 starters back, are 4-8 vs spread on road last 3 years. (this game is in Cardinals’ dome, not Tucson, but will be ‘zona crowd). Arizona is 5-9 under RichRod in games where spread was less than 6 points; they’re 14-15 as faves under this coach. New coach for BYU; Mendenhall was at BYU for 11 years.

Texas is 11-14 under Strong, 3-7-1 vs spread as dogs; they lost 38-3 (+9) LY in South Bend, outgained 527-163- they moved former QB Heard (10 starts) to WR, haven’t decided between Buechele/Swoopes as their QB. Longhorns have 14 starters back, 3 on OL. Notre Dame is just 5-9 as road favorite under Kelly; they lost 13 starters, have just 27 returning starts on OL, but they do have quality depth at QB.

Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts.

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 10:28 am
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College Football Week 1 Opening Liine Report
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com

No. 3 Oklahoma (-10) vs. No. 13 Houston

This is a huge season opener for both teams, as a loss would immediately have them on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff at the end of the year. It’s technically a neutral-site contest, since it’s not at the Cougars’ TDECU Stadium, but it’s still in Houston at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Texans.

The Sooners are coming off an excellent 11-2 SU season (9-4 ATS) in which they reached the playoffs, losing to Clemson 37-17 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Orange Bowl, which served as one of the semifinals. Oklahoma made it that far on the strength of a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run to cap the regular season.

Houston was in potential playoff consideration, too, getting out of the gate 10-0 SU before stubbing its toe at Connecticut. Still, the Cougars finished 13-1 SU (9-4 ATS), capped by a 38-24 victory over Florida State as a 7.5-point underdog in the Peach Bowl.

“This is possibly the opening week matchup I’m looking forward to the most,” Lester said of Saturday’s noon Eastern contest. “It’s really a boom-or-bust game for both teams. If Houston can somehow pull off the upset, then the College Football Playoff mid-major talk won’t cease until season’s end.”

Bookmaker opened the Sooners at -10 back in early June and moved to -10.5 earlier this month, but it reverted to 10 on Aug. 19 and has since remained there.

“We haven’t moved off the opener except for a half-point twice in almost three months, so we feel confident this number will attract fairly even action.”

No. 17 Southern California vs. No. 1 Alabama (-10.5)

Two storied programs highlight the first full Saturday of the season, playing on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Top-ranked Alabama is coming off its fourth national title in the last seven years, blasting Michigan State 38-0 laying 10 points in the playoff semifinals, then edging Clemson 45-40 as a 6-point fave in an exhilarating championship game.

That capped a 14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS season in which the Crimson Tide won their last 12 games.

Southern Cal is coming off another bumpy season that included a coaching change from Steve Sarkisian to Clay Helton, as the Trojans went 8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS. But USC is ranked in the top 20 to start the season, so clearly there’s some optimism in Helton’s first full year at the helm.

“This is another matchup that will garner a huge handle at our shop,” Lester said of the 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “Sharp bettors haven’t seemed too interested in this one, as the half-point movement is mostly due to square support on the defending champs. My guess is we’ll see this line continue to creep up as we get closer to kickoff.”

No. 9 Notre Dame (-3) at Texas

It’s a Sunday evening showdown of traditional college football powers deep in the heart of Texas, where Notre Dame will look to put behind it the arrests of several players in two separate incidents earlier this month. The Fighting Irish were in the hunt for one of the four playoff spots last year before a 38-36 loss at Stanford catching 4 points in the regular-season finale.

Notre Dame then got blitzed by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, losing 44-28 as a 4.5-point pup to complete a 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS season.

Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t sniffed national championship contention since losing the title game to Alabama after the 2009 regular season. Last year, the Longhorns went 5-7 SU and ATS, though they capped the season with a 23-17 upset of host Baylor as a 21-point underdog.

“Our business couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 Sunday night matchup, as bankrolls are full and we have two teams with massive followings,” Lester said of the 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “In the first week of June, we opened this game at Irish -4.5, and early, sharp action came in on Texas. Earlier this month, the line moved as high as -5, but during the past week, more Longhorn money from smart players pushed it down to a field goal.”

No. 12 Mississippi vs. No. 4 Florida State (-4)

A Monday night contest caps the first full week of college football, with an 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

Florida State has consistently been in the national championship chase lately, winning it all in the 2013 season and making the first-ever playoff in 2014 – where it lost to Oregon in one semifinal – before dropping off just a bit last year. The Seminoles went 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2015, including a 38-24 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point chalk in the Peach Bowl.

Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48-20 shellacking of Oklahoma State laying 7.5 points in the Sugar Bowl.

“It’s been a roller coaster of line movement for this Monday night matchup,” Lester said. “For the first month and a half, the money was heavy on Florida State, sending the spread to as high as -6.5. Once it hit that peak, we started seeing some sharper money on Ole Miss. The number dropped to -3.5 a couple of weeks ago. We’ve seen both sides of the betting spectrum.”

 
Posted : August 29, 2016 12:18 pm
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ACC Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Charlotte at Louisville

The Cardinals enter the season in the Top 25, and they have no plans to fall out by losing their opener to the new kid on the block, Charlotte. Charlotte wrapped up the 2015 season going 0-4-2 ATS in their final six games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their final five road outings. Louisville has covered in 15 of their past 18 games against Conference USA opponents, while covering in eight of their past 11 games in the month of September. The Cardinals are led by QB Lamar Jackson, who has the potential to be one of the best players not only in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but the entire country. The Cards open as a 39 1/2-point favorite. As a favorite of 25 or more points over the past two seasons, Louisville is 3-0 ATS.

Tulane at Wake Forest

Tulane heads to Winston-Salem as a 17-point underdog for their opener at Wake Forest. The Green Wave have failed to cover in each of their past six against ACC opponents, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five tilts in the month of September. Both teams are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday night. Tulane is looking to wash the sour taste out of their mouth following a disappointing 2015. They have a new coach, new quarterback and new attitude, looking to improve on offense after finishing 123rd out of 128 FBS teams. John Wolford is back under center for his third season at the helm of the Deacs' offense, and he should give way to dual-threat option Kendall Hinton on occasion. The Demon Deacons have the pieces in place to have a much more explosive offense.

Georgia Tech vs. Boston College

The Ramblin' Wreck and Eagles will do battle in Aviva Stadium in Dublin, with Georgia Tech installed as a field goal favorite. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games, while Boston College is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles. After all of the travel, and the trends for each of these two sides, the 'under' might be the play. The under went 4-1 in Georgia Tech's past five games last season, while the under is 7-3 in B.C.'s past 10 neutral site games, 34-15-2 in their past 51 conference tilts and 36-16-1 in their past 53 on grass. Boston College's offense was horrific down the stretch last season, and figures to be improved. But seeing is believing.

Georgia vs. North Carolina

The Bulldogs and Tar Heels will battle in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in one of the marquee games of the weekend. This game figures to have a very strong Bulldogs crowd despite being a 'neutral site'. UNC hasn't performed very well over the years in neutral-site games, either, going 0-4 ATS in their past four such games, while turning in a 3-7 ATS mark in their past 10 non-conference tilts and 2-7 ATS record in their past nine games in the month of September. Georgia, on the other hand, is 4-1 ATS in their past five against ACC foes while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference battles.

Clemson at Auburn

Clemson heads to the Plains for a battle with Auburn in a primetime matchup on Saturday, with all eyes seeing if the ACC can step out of the shadow of the mighty Southeastern Conference, at least for one weekend. The last time these two sides met resulted in a 26-19 Tigers win, also at Auburn, back on Sept. 1, 2012. QB DeShaun Watson and company enter as touchdown favorites, looking to improve upon their 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven games in the month of September. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference tussles, which is a far cry from Auburn's 1-8 ATS record over their past nine outside of the SEC. Auburn has also failed to cover six straight in September, and they're 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Mississippi vs. Florida State

Last, but certainly not least, the retooled Ole Miss Rebels head to Orlando to battle the Florida State Seminoles in the final game of the opening weekend of action. Mississippi is looking to reload after losing WR Laquon Treadwell, OT Laremy Tunsil and DE Robert Nkemdiche, three players who helped Hotty Toddy become a household hashtag on Twitter over the past couple of seasons in Oxford. They still have QB Chad Kelly, an NFL prospect. However, he is behind an inexperienced offensive line facing a Florida State front which is all likely to be playing on Sundays at some point. The quarterback situation in Tallahassee is a lot less experience, as Deondre Francois takes the reins of Jimbo Fisher's offense. To make his transition a lot more comfortable, he has the luxury of handing off to RB Dalvin Cook early and often. The Seminoles might get off to a slow start as their offense takes time to jell, but Cook will be the difference in this one. However, Ole Miss is 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in their past five on a neutral field. That might be why FSU opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has been bet down to the neighbor of -4 to -4 1/2.

Other Games

William & Mary at North Carolina State
Colgate at Syracuse
Liberty at Virginia Tech
Villanova at Pittsburgh
Richmond at Virginia
North Carolina Central at Duke
Florida A&M at Miami-Florida

 
Posted : August 30, 2016 2:32 pm
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Week 1 Line Moves
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

It’s being called the best-ever opening weekend of college football, and it’s a fantastic way to welcome gamblers back to the game we love most. Thank you, college football schedule makers.

While there is a healthy 16-game slate on Thursday’s betting board and 11 more on Friday, the meat of the Week 1 college football schedule is served up Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Those three days feature four games matching up ranked opponents, as well as three others we’ll characterize as elite.

Two prominent Las Vegas bookmakers, The Wynn’s John Avello and the South Point’s Chris Andrews, offered their thoughts on these seven marquee matchups.

In May, Andrews’ book posted the season’s first college football lines in Vegas.

Avello is traditionally the first oddsmaker in town to open college football betting each week during the season.

Oklahoma (-11.5, 68) vs. Houston

Andrews opened the Sooners -9.5 in May, and they were as low as -8.5 at other shops, but the line has risen steadily since. And it’s not just public money that’s backing Oklahoma.

"I’ve had sharp money show up for Oklahoma, which kind of surprised me," Andrews said.

Avello likes Oklahoma’s quality on both sides of the ball and sees Bob Stoops’ squad contending for the national championship. Houston, though, presents a tough early test.

"This will tell us a lot about their season," Avello said of the Sooners.

The game is in Houston, but be careful how much you factor that into your handicapping. It’s being played at the Texans’ home field, not the Cougars’.

Avello said he didn’t give much home-field edge to Houston when setting his number.

"That’s kind of Oklahoma’s territory also," he said. "They may have as many fans there as (Houston does)."

LSU (-10, 44.5) vs. Wisconsin

Count Avello among the large group of college football observers who are down on Wisconsin ahead of the season.

"Wisconsin doesn’t look good at all on paper to start of the year," he said.

That makes the Badgers’ first opponent look awfully daunting. This is the third year in a row Wiscy opens against an SEC opponent – last season, they lost 35-17 as 12.5-point underdogs to Alabama in Arlington; in 2014, they were catching just three points in a 28-24 loss to these Tigers in Houston.

While Avello gives Wisconsin some (but not full) home-field advantage in Green Bay, he believes the double-digit spread is justified.

Andrews has been writing good two-way action on the contest.

"Money’s been both ways from both the public and the sharp guys," Andrews said.

North Carolina vs. Georgia (-2.5, 57)

Georgia is ranked No. 18 in the preseason AP poll, and while the South Point is dealing a win total of 8.5 on the Bulldogs, Andrews is dubious on Kirby Smart’s prospects his first year in Athens.

Pro bettors at the South Point are taking the points.

"I’ve had some sharp money show up on North Carolina, and to tell you the truth, I can see it," Andrews said. "I think Georgia may be a tad overrated, and I think North Carolina is going to be very good again."

Similar to Wisconsin at Lambeau, Georgia has a slight home-field edge in Atlanta, according to Avello.

"The spread is right," he added. "I can see this game going either way."

USC vs. Alabama (-11, 53.5)

As one may have expected, Alabama has taken the early the money, with the spread bet from -9 to -10.5 at the South Point and -11 elsewhere.

"Mostly two-way action (early), but lately a little more Alabama money from both public and sharp guys," Andrews said.

While the Crimson Tide’s quarterback situation remains in flux, Avello is, like most bettors, unconcerned about Nick Saban’s men.

"I know that defensively they’ll be there," Avello said. "I’m not sure how good the Alabama offense will be early, but let’s not forget, there are some (great offensive) players for Alabama, other than the quarterback, who can make an impact."

Clemson (-7.5, 62) at Auburn

Andrews opened Clemson -8, was bet down to -7 in late August, before settling at -7.5. That’s where most of Vegas sits on this game.

"I’ve had two-way action from the public and wiseguys," Andrews said. "So this looks like a pretty good betting game to me."

The offseason turmoil at Auburn has Avello rethinking his position on the Tigers.

"I was expecting a better season, but preseason, they’ve fallen apart," Avello said. "We’ll see if the coach (Gus Malzahn) can put it back together. He better put it back together – he could be on the hot seat."

Notre Dame (-3.5, 60) at Texas

Speaking of offseason turmoil, two separate incidents on the same Friday night a few weeks ago resulted in the dismissal of Notre Dame starting safety Max Redfield and the suspension of cornerback Devin Butler.

The spread at The Wynn moved from Notre Dame -4.5 to -3.5 after the news, but action on Texas started coming in before that.

"I took some pretty good money (on Texas +4.5) before the suspensions," Avello said. "I wasn’t sure if the guys that bet it knew the suspension was coming or just liked that side."

Neither should you dismiss the Longhorns after two straight losing seasons. In both bookmakers’ opinions, Charlie Strong has this team heading in the right direction.

"I think they’re both very good teams, but Texas is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year," Andrews said. "I expect them to have a good season."

Ole Miss vs. Florida State (-4.5, 57)

Opening week of the 2016 college football seasons culminates with this gem, the line for which has been as high as FSU -6.5 and as low as -4.

Avello and Andrews – from a handicapping perspective, not necessarily a bookmaking one – are on different sides of the Monday nighter.

"I would lean toward Florida State just because I believe they are one of those teams that could be in the hunt for the national championship," said Avello.

Andrews counters, "A lot of people have forgotten how good Mississippi is, and no knock on Florida State – who I also think is very good – but Ole Miss is gonna be a real good team again this year and they’ve had some off the field issues, but on the field, they’re gonna be very, very good. I kind of like Mississippi in that game."

In other action….

While Andrews says the stellar quality of the best Week 1 games is resulting in excellent action at the South Point, his shop has been seeing business up and down the board.”

Ball State vs. Georgia State and Indiana vs. FIU are among the more obscure games people are betting in Week 1.

Sharps were on Indiana and Minnesota very early at the South Point, and the public has come in later at much bigger numbers. The Hoosiers opened -3 at Andrews’ shop and were bet up to -9.5; the Gophers opened -7.5 at home vs. Oregon State and moved to -12.5.

Georgia State has been another wiseguy play, as the Panthers have been bet from +5.5 to +3.5.

Pros, Avello added, took Kansas State and the two touchdowns-plus vs. highly-regarded Stanford.

Of course, most the action will come the day of the games, when Avello sees public bettors doing what they usually do: playing the chalk.

"I think the public’s gonna bet some of the big favorites," Avello said. "They’re gonna lay the Louisvilles against the Charlottes, Tennessee against Appalachian State, Iowa against Miami (Ohio) and Ohio State against Bowling Green. The typical good team vs. bad team matchups."

 
Posted : August 31, 2016 8:16 am
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NCAA Football Line Watch - Week 1
By Steve Merril
Covers.com

SPREAD TO BET NOW: Western Michigan +6 (vs. Northwestern)

There has been a little movement on this game; Northwestern opened -6.5 and the line currently sits at -6. I expect more money to show on Western Michigan in this game, so taking the Broncos at +6 now may be a prudent move to make.

My raw power ratings actually make this line Northwestern -6, so there’s no value from a numbers perspective. However, I was cautious in downgrading the Wildcats’ power rating before I see them on the field, but I actually think they’ll regress more than anticipated in 2016. Western Michigan will have one of the best offenses in the MAC this season, and their ability to score points will force Northwestern to be efficient on offense. I don’t expect that to happen considering the Wildcats only averaged 19.5 points per game in 2015. Grab the +6 now on Western Michigan before the line drops.

SPREAD TO WAIT ON: Wyoming +10 (vs. Northern Illinois)

Northern Illinois opened as 10.5-point favorites over Wyoming, and a little early money has nudged the line down to -10 in favor of the Huskies. However, I expect money to come back in on the favorite from the public bettors closer to kickoff simply because this is one of the “late-night bailout games” on the board.

Northern Illinois has no business laying double digits on the road. The Huskies’ defense gave up 418 yards per game last season, and they allowed 89 total points in their last two games of 2015. They lost two of their better defensive lineman to graduation, and that’s not good since Wyoming has a decent running game that can control the ball and the clock in this game. Wait and take Wyoming right before kickoff.

TOTAL TO WATCH: LSU/Wisconsin 44.5

LSU and Wisconsin are both similar teams in that they are heavily reliant on running the football and playing excellent defense to win. The total opened at 48.5, and it was quickly bet down to the current number of 44.5 which is fully understandable.

There are some major question marks on both teams coming into this game. Wisconsin is young and inexperienced (12 returning starters), and they have a weak offense that actually regressed by 7.8 points and 90 yards per game last season despite winning 10 games. LSU has gotten questionable quarterback play the last couple of seasons, and their best player, running back Justin Fournette, is in a walking boot after spraining his ankle. This game should be low-scoring, and there’s still some value on the Under at the current number.

 
Posted : August 31, 2016 8:17 am
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Big 12 Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Kansas State at Stanford

The Wildcats named Jesse Ertz as their starting signal caller after a battle in preseason, but the real story of this game, and any time Stanford plays, is Christian McCaffrey. K-State returns plenty of firepower on both sides of the football, and they have an experienced linebacking corps and front seven that should at least hold McCaffrey under his regular video-game like numbers. K-State enters as more than a two-touchdown underdog, but they have the guns to at least keep the Cardinal within sight. The Cardinal replace long-time starting QB Brian Hogan with Ryan Burns, but again, his transition will be easier with McCaffrey taking off the pressure. Sometimes it takes Stanford a little while to get going. Remember last season when they lost 16-6 at Northwestern to start the season? Or 2014 when they fell at home to USC 13-10 in their first game against an FBS opponent? Or their scare in 2012 when they eeked out a 20-17 win against San Jose State in the opener despite being favored by 25? They're 0-4 ATS in the past four seasons in their first game against an FBS opponent, and K-State might be the best one during the entire stretch and they're catching 16 points at some shops.

Oklahoma vs. Houston

The No. 3 Sooners and No. 15 Cougars do battle at NRG Stadium in Houston in another marquee game from the great state of Texas. This game features a pair of impressive quarterbacks as Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma and Greg Ward Jr. of Houston can really sling it. And Ward is dangerous with his feet, too, as he threw for 2,828 yards, ran for 1,100 yards and accounted for a total of 38 touchdowns. As such, many people are touting Houston as the top contender in the Group of Five. A signature win over Oklahoma in their home city would certainly be a huge feather in their cap. If the Cougars are going to get that win they'll need to try and slow RB Samaje Perine, who posted 16 rushing touchdowns to lead the Big 12 last season. The Sooners opened as a 10-point favorite and the line climbed to 12 1/2 points. The public likes Oklahoma despite the fact the Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their past four neutral-site games while the Cougs are 7-2 ATS in their past nine neutral-site affairs.

Missouri at West Virginia

Mizzou heads to Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, entering as 10-point underdogs. It's a tale of two teams in the month of September, as the SEC's Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their past four tilts in the month, while the Mountaineers are a solid 5-2 ATS in their past seven in the opening month of the season. Missouri's offense was putrid last season, and they'll have to be much, much better if they're to have a shot against Skyler Howard and company in Morgantown. The Tigers do not have the caliber offense to come from behind, so if West Virginia can generate a few early scores it could be lights out in a hurry for the Tigers and their side bettors. Mizzou has the type of defense to keep them in the game, however West Virginia is far more superior on the offensive side of the ball. 'Under' (50) could be the play, as the under is 5-0 in Missouri's past five road outings, 4-0 in their past four non-conference tilts and 12-2 in their past 14 non-conference games. For West Virginia, the under is 6-1 in their past seven at home, 8-2 in their past 10 in September and 9-4 in their past 13 non-conference battles.

Notre Dame at Texas

Your wife or girlfriend will be so excited to see you on the couch, feet propped up with a beer watching more college football Sunday night after a full slate of games Saturday. If she took the time to sit and watch with you, she would see an Irish offensive attack which should be very dangerous. RBs Tarean Folston and Josh Adams are strong tailbacks running behind an experience veteran offensive line. QBs Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer are also fabulous with their arm as well as their feet, and they'll give the Texas defense fits all night. Still, the Longhorns finally have the pieces in place in their backfield to fire right back at the Notre Dame defense with D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren II running hard. Freshman QB Shane Buechele, son of former Texas Rangers third baseman Steve Buechele, makes his first start in a tough situation with no tune-up game to get situated. Can he handle the national pressure and spotlight in a marquee game? That's the biggest question. If so, the eyes of Texas will be smiling on him.

Other Games

Northwestern State at Baylor
Southeastern Louisiana at Oklahoma State
Rhode Island at Kansas
Northern Iowa at Iowa State
South Dakota State at Texas Christian
Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech

 
Posted : August 31, 2016 8:19 am
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Pac-12 Report - Week 1
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Oregon State at Minnesota

The Beavers head to the Twin Cities to open their campaign Thursday night, and they line has jumped from an open of 10 points to Minnesota being favored by 13 currently. Oregon State has a new sheriff in town, as transfer Darell Garretson takes the reins of the offense. He was recruited to Utah State by head coach Gary Andersen, and he redshirted last season. He'll have a big target in Jordan Villamin, who might not be the next Brandin Cooks, but he has some good size and speed. Paul Lucas gives Garretson another big target, as it looks like the offense should be a little more prolific in 2016. The problem for the Beavs is on defense, where they were gashed on the ground. And Minnesota has a strong rushing attack, led by Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith.

Colorado State vs. Colorado

The Buffaloes opened as nine-point favorites, but have quickly been bet down to near a touchdown. The public is all over Colorado State, who enter this game 11-2-1 ATS in their past 14 non-conference performances. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings in this rivalry, while the under has cashed in seven of the past eighth in the series. The under might be a popular play, as it is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site games for the Rams, and 5-2 in their past seven non-conference battles while going 8-2-1 in their past 11 against the Pac-12 Conference. The under is 4-1 in the past five non-conference tilts for the Buffs, 5-1 in their past six neutral-site games and 4-0 in their past four against Mountain West foes.

Kansas State at Stanford

The Wildcats named Jesse Ertz as their starting signal caller after a battle in preseason, but the real story of this game, and any time Stanford plays, is Christian McCaffrey. K-State returns plenty of firepower on both sides of the football, and they have an experienced linebacking corps and front seven that should at least hold McCaffrey under his regular video-game like numbers. K-State enters as more than a two-touchdown underdog, but they have the guns to at least keep the Cardinal within sight. The Cardinal replace long-time starting QB Brian Hogan with Ryan Burns, but again, his transition will be easier with McCaffrey taking off the pressure. Sometimes it takes Stanford a little while to get going. Remember last season when they lost 16-6 at Northwestern to start the season? Or 2014 when they fell at home to USC 13-10 in their first game against an FBS opponent? Or their scare in 2012 when they eeked out a 20-17 win against San Jose State in the opener despite being favored by 25? They're 0-4 ATS in the past four seasons in their first game against an FBS opponent, and K-State might be the best one during the entire stretch and they're catching 16 points at some shops.

Rutgers at Washington

Washington opened as 24-point favorites, and the public has bet the line up to 26 1/2 points. Everyone loves the Huskies this season, as they're the sexy pick in the Pac-12. For the first game, a lot probably has to do with the fact the Scarlet Knights lost one of their only legitimate offensive threats in WR Leonte Carroo, and the fact they are playing under new head coach Chris Ash. For U-Dub, Chris Petersen enters his third season, and looks to finally bring some of the success he had at Boise State to Seattle after middling results in the first two campaigns. The Huskies defense should be nasty, and it's hard to see the Scarlet Knights doing much offensively. Washington has eight starters back from the top-ranked defense in the Pac-12 from a year ago. Washington allowed a total of 11 touchdown passes all season in 2015, lowest in the league. If Rutgers is to do anything offensively, that is where they have to be successful wth Chris Laviano. For Washington, the pieces are in place on offense, too, as Jake Browning enters his second season under center after a farily successful campaign as a true frosh. Myles Gaskins looks like the next solid Washington back. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their past five against Pac-12 foes, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 non-conference games, but the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their past four non-conference tilts.

UCLA at Texas A&M

The Bruins head down deep in the heart of Texas to take on the Aggies and the 12th man in College Station in one of the marquee games of the opening weekend of college pigskin. The Aggies are a field goal favorite to top Josh Rosen and the Bruins. Over the past two seasons A&M has opened the season 5-0, but this is their biggest test yet. They will be without WR Speedy Noil, as he is suspended for this game, as well as WR Quartney Davis (ACL) and LB Josh Walker, also suspended. The Aggies have one of the best pass rushers in the country in DE Myles Garrett, but the UCLA offensive line allowed just 12 sacks of their star quarterback Rosen last season, so they should be able to neutralize Garrett. The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their past six against SEC opponents, but 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against non-conference foes. A&M covered just one of their final eight games lat season, including 0-4 ATS in their final four at Kyle Field.

Southern California vs. Alabama

USC's brutal schedule starts with the defending national champion Crimson Tide in the Metroplex. The Trojans are just 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site games, so this will be a test. The Tide opened as a 10-point favorite and the line quickly climbed to 11 1/2. Both sides will be breaking in a new quarterback, and for the Tide it is uncertain exactly who that will be. Junior Cooper Bateman and redshirt freshman Blake Barnett will be the signal callers for Bama, and they should both see the field Saturday night. The Trojans have settled on Max Browne to run their offense, and he'll have the dynamic Juju Smith-Schuster on the receiving end of his throws. The Trojans certainly have the horses on offense to hang with the Tide, who might be a bit disjointed offensively to start. This is the first meeting between these two historic programs since the Aloha Bowl in 1985.

Brigham Young vs. Arizona

The Cougars and Wildcats butt heads in the home of the Arizona Cardinals late Saturday night, and it will be a good game. Vegas has installed BYU as a slight favorite or pick 'em. Arizona should have the home crowd on its side against BYU, and they have the most dynamic tailback in the game with RB Nick Wilson. They'll need a good run game with the Wildcats uncertain at the quarterback spot. Anu Solomon and Brandon Dawkins are each expected to see time under center. The Cougars have a much better quarterback situation with Taysom Hill (foot) back from a fractured foot. He will start ahead of Tanner Mangum, who did big things once Hill went down. Offensive coordinator and former BYU great Ty Detmer returns to his alma mater as the offensive coordinator, installing a pro-style offense. When they're not slinging the ball, Jamaal Williams will be toting the rock with authority.

Other games

Southern Utah at Utah
Cal-Davis at Oregon
Eastern Washington at Washington State
Northern Arizona at Arizona State

 
Posted : September 2, 2016 8:16 am
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