College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 11
By Adam Thompson
Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+1, 49.5)
Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Yellow Jackets like to run the ball, but that fits into the defensive strength of the Hokies (No. 6 vs. the run). Meanwhile, GT is not great at stopping the rush, which is also a VT strength.
Why Georgia Tech will cover: The Yellow Jackets rolled over Clemson last week, and seem to have that running train back on track. The Hokies are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight.
Points: In Thursday games featuring VT or GT, the under is 30-10. It is also 4-0 in GT’s last four.
Houston Cougars at Tulane Green Wave (+34, 71)
Why Houston will cover: Tulane is middle of the pack in yards allowed, but it is 112th in points allowed (36 ppg). Houston’s offense is the best in the nation in scoring (52.7 ppg) and passing (457 ypg). The Green Wave is 3-7 ATS this season.
Why Tulane will cover: Houston is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 on turf. Tulane is capable of moving the ball, giving hope of covering a big home spread.
Points: The teams combine to average more than 800 yards per game.
Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers (+1, 58.5)
Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns have been on a roll, crushing every opponent not from Oklahoma since a narrow BYU win in Week 2. The run game is 11th in the nation.
Why Missouri will cover: The Tigers average 245 yards rushing and 255 passing, putting pressure on a defense which is strong against the run and mediocre vs. the pass.
Points: The over is 6-2 in Mizzou’s last eight and 4-1-1 in Texas’ last six.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions (+3, 43)
Why Nebraska will cover: The run game is a force when NU gets an early lead. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS and is dealing with the worst off-field distraction in college football history.
Why Penn State will cover: The Lions’ defense ranks No. 8 against the pass and 24th vs. the rush. Take a lead led by the strong rush game, and the Huskers may struggle to keep up.
Points: The under is 3-0 in Nebraska’s last three, and the over has hit just once for PSU all year.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Clemson Tigers (-16.5, 60)
Why Wake Forest will cover: The Deacons have the pass game to stick around. The team has been good for 17-24 points four straight games, which forces Clemson to be very productive to cover.
Why Clemson will cover: Wake Forest has not fared well against teams that throw, and Clemson averages 304 ypg through the air. The Tigers are 7-2 ATS and Wake Forest has been poor on the road, just 2-8 ATS in its last 10.
Points: The over is 6-3 for Clemson and if the Tigers will cover, they’ll likely go over.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5, 76)
Why West Virginia will cover: West Virginia is a passing team and Cincy ranks 105th at stopping it.
Why Cincinnati will cover: The Bearcats have won six straight, 4-2 ATS. They’ve used a balanced offense to average 39 ppg (11th).
Points: The over has hit in WVU’s last eight games, but the under is 4-1 in Cincy’s last five.
Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (+2.5, 46.5)
Why Michigan State will cover: Michigan State’s defense ranks among the best, including No. 2 against the pass. The pass offense has shown big improvements.
Why Iowa will cover: Iowa’s defense is good-not-great, but it ranks higher than MSU’s offense in the similar categories. The team allows yards, but not points. MSU almost lost to Minnesota last week.
Points: Both teams have better defenses than offenses. A typical Big Ten slugfest.
Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (N/A)
Why Florida will cover: South Carolina may be missing its quarterback, and it’s still trying to find a way to replace star RB Marcus Lattimore. Gamecocks QB Connor Shaw suffered a concussion and has been cleared to play, but it was unsure as of Wednesday afternoon if he would. If the Gators can grab an early lead, the third-ranked pass defense should do the rest.
Why South Carolina will cover: Like Florida, South Carolina relies more on the run and has a strong pass D. Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five. South Carolina has alternated winning and losing ATS since Week 1. Last week, the Gamecocks lost.
Points: After a couple weeks of hitting the under, both teams are coming off an over game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+17, 78)
Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU’s offense has demolished everyone so far, and TT’s defense already allows 34 ppg. At some point, the Red Raiders will get overwhelmed.
Why Texas Tech will cover: Tech can score with anyone, and the defense, while it has its flaws, is 37th against the pass. OSU’s defense isn’t exactly Alabama, either.
Points: The over is 7-1 in Tech’s last eight, and there’s little reason to believe either team will slow the other.
TCU Horned Frogs at Boise State Broncos (-15, 58)
Why TCU will cover: The Frogs are as balanced as they come, averaging 227 ypg rushing and 224 passing. This game is the season for TCU, so it’s hard to imagine a blowout.
Why Boise State will cover: Aside from an opening win at Georgia (-3), this is the first manageable spread for the Broncos. Their offense ranks top 20 in every category, and the defense is No. 5 against the pass, impressive since most opponents play catch-up.
Points: The over is 7-2 in TCU’s last nine. Both offenses match up well in this one.
Texas A&M Aggies at Kansas State Wildcats (+4.5, 64)
Why Texas A&M will cover: The Aggies can score in any which way, and KSU is 117th against the pass. Texas A&M’s pass defense is terrible, but KSU doesn’t throw. And the Aggies stop the run.
Why Kansas State will cover: K-State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, Texas A&M is 1-7. And the Wildcats are getting points. If you believe in streaks, this is an easy one.
Points: The over is 6-1 in KSU’s last seven, and this is a matchup that could break A&M out of its funk.
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-13.5, 52.5)
Why Auburn will cover: The Tigers have found ways to win the close ones. Georgia’s two losses have come at home.
Why Georgia will cover: The Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven. Auburn can’t throw but it runs; too bad Georgia ranks No. 8 against it. The offense has been balanced and strong.
Points: Auburn will have to revive a dormant pass game to help out.
Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+27, 63.5)
Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers are fourth in scoring, and average 246 yards rushing and 257 passing per game. Minnesota can’t stop one dimension of defense, let alone two. UW is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Big Ten games.
Why Minnesota will cover: The Gophers try to run the ball, both to shorten games and score. The Badgers, if they have a defensive weakness, is slowing the run (47th).
Points: The over has hit in a whopping 11 consecutive meetings.
Michigan Wolverines at Illinois Fighting Illini (-1, 49)
Why Michigan will cover: The Illini are reeling, losers of three straight. With a spread that allows simply picking a winner, going with the squad that has Denard Robinson is a good way to go.
Why Illinois will cover: The winner will likely be the team that has the better run game. Both are strong on the ground, but Illinois’ run D is 15th and Michigan’s is 48th. Michigan is 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road.
Points: The under has hit three straight times for both teams.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-14, 55)
Why Tennessee will cover: The Vols have the 14th-best pass defense in the nation, which will help against the Razorbacks.
Why Arkansas will cover: Tennessee can’t run and that matches up well for Arkansas. The offense racks up enough points to do the rest. The Vols are 0-4-1 ATS in the SEC.
Points: The under is 5-0-1 in the Vols’ last six.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at LSU Tigers (-42, 49)
Why Western Kentucky will cover: The Hilltoppers can run the ball at times. It should only take 1-2 scores, late in the game against LSU’s reserves, to cover.
Why LSU will cover: If LSU comes out with the same intensity it did at Alabama last week, it could be 42-0 by halftime.
Points: If LSU covers, the over will likely go with it.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs (17, 42.5)
Why Alabama will cover: Uh-oh, Bulldogs, the Tide have something to prove. Bama’s defense currently ranks No. 1 in passing yards (130.7), rushing yards (56.3) and points allowed (7.1).
Why Mississippi State will cover: The Bulldogs like to run and the defense, which ranks No. 16 in points and No. 19 in passing, is no sieve.
Points: The over has hit for MSU’s last two, but both teams will be charged by the defenses.
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 65.5)
Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks haven’t been in a close game since Week 1. Oregon is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Why Stanford will cover: While both teams can score, only Stanford has shown the ability to also shut down an opponent. Oregon is fifth in rushing, but Stanford’s defense is third in stopping it. The Cardinal is 9-0 ATS this season.
Points: Both teams have good defenses, but great offenses.
Central Florida Knights at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-8.5, 52)
Why Central Florida will cover: The Knights have a defense that ranks No. 6 in passing, No. 16 in rushing and No. 5 in points. It is the top unit USM’s offense has seen thus far. The offense is only so-so, but is certainly not terrible.
Why Southern Miss will cover: The Eagles’ offense is 18th in scoring and the defense is 19th in point allowed. UCF is 1-6 ATS in its last seven, including 0-4 on the road.
Points: The under is 7-2 for UCF and 6-3 for USM.
Games to Watch - Week 11
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Nebraska vs. Penn State
As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Nebraska listed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 43. Gamblers can take Penn St. to win outright for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145). On Wednesday morning, Joe Paterno announced his retirement effective at the end of the season. Obviously, this decision was prompted by the stunning arrest of former defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky, who faces incomprehensible allegations of sex crimes committed against young boys over the course of more than a decade. PSU is 5-1 straight up and 2-4 against the spread at home this year. The Nittany Lions, who are coming off an open date, have won seven in a row since suffering their lone loss to Alabama to Week 2. Nebraska had won three straight before losing a 28-25 decision to Northwestern as a 17-point home favorite last week. The Cornhuskers are 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year, and they're 9-4 ATS as road favorites during Bo Pelini's four-year tenure. The 'under' is 7-1-1 overall for PSU. Totals have been an overall wash (4-4) for Nebraska, but it has seen the 'under' hit in its last three games and go 2-1 in its road assignments.
West Virginia vs. Cincinnati
Most spots have Cincinnati listed as a 3½-point favorite with a total of 66. Bettors can take West Va. on the money line for a plus-150 payout. Butch Jones's squad is coming off a 26-23 win at Pitt as a 3½-point road favorite. Zach Collaros overcame a pair of interceptions by rushing for two TDs for the Bearcats, who have won six in a row since losing at Tennessee in Week 2. WVU has lost two of its last three both SU and ATS, including last week's surprising 38-35 loss to Louisville as a 12½-point home favorite. The Mountaineers' defense has been awful the last three games, giving up 38, 31 and 49 points. WVU signal caller Geno Smith is enjoying a banner year with a 23/5 TD-INT ratio, but he'll be without one of his favorite targets (Brad Starks) for the rest of the regular season. The 'over' has hit in eight consecutive games for WVU, but Cincy has seen the 'under' go 4-1 its last five times out. When these Big East adversaries met in Morgantown last year, WVU cruised to a 37-10 victory.
Michigan State vs. Iowa
As of Wednesday, most books had Michigan St. listed as a 2½ point 'chalk' with a total of 47. The Spartans have failed to cover the number in back-to-back outings, including last week's 31-24 come-from-behind win over Minnesota as 28-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins threw for 296 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted, while Le'Veon Bell rushed for 96 yards and two TDs on 15 carries. For the season, Cousins has passed for 1,989 yards with a 13/5 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Iowa bounced back from a shocking loss at Minnesota to beat Michigan by a 24-16 count as a 3½-point home underdog last Saturday. Marcus Coker rushed for 132 yards and two TDs to lead his team into the win column. The Hawkeyes are unbeaten at home this year and 4-2 versus the number. As home 'dogs under Kirk Ferentz, they own a 12-7-2 spread record since 1999. When these Big Ten rivals met last year, Iowa cruised to a 37-6 win as a 6½-point home favorite. The 'under' is 6-3 overall for Michigan St., 3-0 in its road assignments. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes have seen the 'over' go 5-4 overall, 4-2 in their home games.
TCU vs. Boise State
Most books are listing Boise St. as a 15½-point favorite with a total of 58½. The Broncos are off a 48-21 non-covering win at UNLV as enormous 42-point favorites. Heisman candidate Kellen Moore threw five TD passes without getting picked off to improve his TD/INT ratio to 29/5 for the year. TCU also failed to cover as a road 'chalk' last week, beating Wyoming 31-20 as a 19½-point favorite. Waymon James was the catalyst with 181 rushing yards on just 12 carries, while Ed Wesley added 120 yards on the ground and two TD runs. Gary Patterson's squad has won four in a row since losing to SMU at home in OT. The Horned Frogs, who are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road this season, are 6-3-1 ATS as road 'dogs since 2005. BSU has failed to cover the spread in four consecutive home games on the smurf turf dating back to last year's regular-season finale. These teams met in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago with the Broncos winning a 17-10 decision as seven-point underdogs. The 'over' is 7-2 overall for TCU, 5-3 overall for BSU.
Auburn vs. Georgia
Mark Richt's team can clinch the SEC East title and trip to the Ga. Dome to meet the SEC West winner if it can knock off Auburn between the hedges. Oddsmakers have made the Dawgs 13-point favorites to do just that. The total is 53. UGA has won seven in a row since losing its first two games and it is a lucrative 6-1 ATS during this span. Sophomore QB Aaron Murray is the main reason why, as he's thrown for 2,060 yards while posting a 23/8 TD-INT ratio. Gene Chizik's team had an open date to get ready for its trip to Athens. The Tigers are off a 41-23 home win over Ole Miss as 11-point favorites. Clint Moseley completed 12-of-15 passes for four TDs without an interception in the win over the Rebels. When these teams met on The Plains last season, UGA raced out to a double-digit lead before Cam Newton took over and led AU to a 49-31 triumph. The 'over' is 5-4 overall for both teams this year.
This Week in the ACC
Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Despite the looming effect of a potential 'Bubble Burst', WR Sammy Watkins said Clemson has had a better focus in practice after losing at Georgia Tech.
"I see a bunch of guys that realized we can be beaten and that we have to come out and play every game not just against Florida State or Auburn," said Watkins.
Clemson can clinch a division title against Wake Forest on Saturday.
Appearances Can Be Deceptive
Coach Jimbo Fisher said Miami, despite four losses and numerous allegations surrounding the program, looks as talented as ever.
"Like always," Fisher said. "They've got big guys, they've got fast guys, and they've got talented guys. They always have, they always do and they always will."
The secondary expects to be tested by Miami WR Tommy Streeter in Saturday's game at Doak Campbell Stadium.
"He's a home-run threat, right off the bat," Fisher said. "He's going to be a high-drafted guy and is going to make a lot of money one day."
Two starters are expected back for FSU, senior OG David Spurlock (knee) and freshman WR Rashid Greene (ankle). Both players have been sidelined since the Wake Forest game Oct. 8.
Spurlock is a four-year starter. Greene has a team-high six TD catches.
Wait Until Next Year
Coach Randy Edsall said next season should be much easier than his first one in College Park.
"There is no question it will," he said. "I have had the opportunity to talk to Paul Johnson and Mike London and what they have gone through. Everyone has a philosophy and a plan of action and you are going to install that."
Edsall appears to be preparing for next year this season, starting five freshmen on the defensive side of the ball.
Furthermore, WR Quentin McCrea said rotating QBs Danny O'Brien and C. J. Brown prevents the offense from finding a rhythm.
"It's a different kind of rotation, speed and play calling, so it's difficult," McCrea said. "But in the end we still have to come out and win."
For The Cheese
When Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech at Bobby Dodd Stadium the two teams will be playing for the top spot in the ACC Coastal division standings.
The Yellow Jackets (4-2) trail the Hokiest (4-1) by a half-game with Virginia (3-2) lurking in the shadows.
The Cavaliers edged the Jackets, 24-21, a month ago in Charlottesville and would control their own destiny should the Hokies fall.
From The Database
• ACC Head-to-Head: Host in Boston College/NC State series is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS… Duke is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS L4 meetings with Cavaliers… favorite in Florida State/ Miami Florida series is 0-6 SU and ATS L6 meetings… host in Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech series is 2-6 ATS… Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS off a loss versus Tigers.
• ACC Coaches: Florida State's Fisher is 15-1 SU and 11-3 ATS versus .700 or less opponents… Georgia Tech's Johnson is 17-9 ATS with rest… Maryland's Edsall is 5-1 ATS as a home dog off a SU and ATS loss… Miami Florida's Golden is 20-6-2 ATS as a dog of 24 or less points… NC State's O'Brien is 19-8-2 ATS in games off a SU dog win… Virginia Tech's Beamer is 25-10 SU and 23-10-2 ATS versus an opponent off a SU dog win… Wake Forest's Grobe is 12-6-2 ATS versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss.
• STAT OF THE WEEK: After starting his career 5-0 ATS at home with Boston College, Frank Spaziani has gone 1-10 ATS in his next 11 home games.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Even before all the terrible news started pouring out publicly from University Park, attempting to handicap Saturday’s Penn State-Nebraska game was hard enough. Now, with PSU players swirling in emotions of uncharted proportions its hard how to gauge that factor into the equation.
Do the Penn State players dig deep and find away to win for not only their coach, but the victims involved if they choose to acknowledge them -- as they should -- in this whole ordeal?
Following the news of Paterno being fired, students streamed out of the dorm rooms to the streets like ants fleeing a hill full of insecticide. Riots were reported by the media for sensationalism purposes, but for the most part it was an emotional outcry of support in a peaceful manner, outside of a news truck being overturned.
That type of emotion by the students is the same feeling the players have. For the most of them, they chose to play football at Penn State with the help of their families because of Paterno and the rich tradition he built in his 46 years of leadership.
But there is also the emotional angle that could see this team play flatter than they have all season, a season that has seen them only cover twice in nine games despite going 8-1 straight up. Beyond feeling sorrow and pain for their ousted coach, there also has to be a bit of disgust and embarrassment attached to them representing a school that had such high standards, but has now been tarnished by a scandal.
Through it all, however they try to charge themselves emotionally, the thought of what might have happened to children in their own locker room they dress in has to weigh heavy in the back of their minds.
Penn State is currently in the driver’s seat and should it win this game -- its final home game of the season -- and then take care of business at Ohio State and Wisconsin, the school will be on its way to a nice tribute for their ousted coach.
Nebraska is no bargain itself -- at home or on the road -- and now it enters a hornet’s nest. The Cornhuskers are coming off an embarrassing home loss to Northwestern as 17-point favorites and are playing in only their fourth road game. They beat the likes of Wyoming and Minnesota while getting crushed at Wisconsin.
How do the Huskers respond through all of this as an innocent bystander? The tension is thick in the area and it would almost be better if the first time they step foot in Pennsylvania was on game day. Stay in Youngstown, OH like the night before the game like the 49ers successfully did this year and take the three-hour drive on game day to be as far away from the emotion of the situation.
The Las Vegas Hilton opened Nebraska as a 2½-point favorite and is now up to -3½ showing that the bettors and bookmakers are leaning towards Penn State being flat.
The big game of the week with all kinds of BCS implications is Oregon visiting Stanford where the Cardinal have dropped from an opener of -4 to -3½. Stanford is currently No. 4 in the BCS rankings with an average of .874 which is well below Oklahoma State’s .9447 and just a tad lower than one-loss Alabama at .8836. However, should they beat Oregon, Stanford is sure to pass Alabama. Then won’t get much credit for beating Cal, but could gain some more points by handling Notre Dame in its season finale with additional points looming with a Pac 12 championship game win.
Still, Stanford will be rooting for Arkansas to take down LSU on Nov. 25 and Oklahoma to hand OSU a loss on Dec. 3.
Last week’s LSU-Alabama handle was the highest of the season, almost like a BCS Bowl game, but Cal-Neva’s sports book director Nick Bogdanovich thinks Oregon-Stanford will top it at his books.
“We’re in a little different situation than most of the Las Vegas sports books because we’re based out of Reno and we'll see that Northern California and Oregon money more,“ said Bogdanovich who also has several books located in Las Vegas as well. “We always have a strong Bay Area handle over the weekend at our Northern properties and they’ll be betting this game strong.”
Last Sunday following the LSU win, a customer came to Bogdanovich and asked him to make a money-line for Western Kentucky at Baton Rouge this week. LSU is a 41½-point favorite in the game, but it is a let-down spot against a perceived weak opponent with LSU coming off the biggest of all wins.
Being the renowned gambler Bogdanovich is, he came up with a number, 100-to-1 and let the bettor wager $5,000 on it.
“Needless to say, I’ll have a little something to sweat out Saturday night,” said Bogdanovich of the $500,000 risk attached to the bet.
WKU and LSU are both 7-2 against the spread with WKU a strong 4-0 ATS on the road, albeit against Sun Belt competition, but they have won five games in a row.
The total in the game is 48½ making it look pretty funny on digital board with the spread being only 7-points less. Talk about a correlated parlay!
In Cal-Neva’s backyard, Nevada is getting some action for their home game against a tired Hawaii squad. Nevada opened as a 10-point favorite Sunday at the Wynn and most Vegas sports books opened -13½ on Monday. Through Thursday morning, the Wolf Pack was -15½ or -16 everywhere.
Alabama has been bet up from a 16½-point road favorite to -18 for their game at Mississippi State. Nick Saban has to be driving home the point they are still a major player in the BCS title to keep them focused against a very defensive minded MSU squad.
Air Force has jumped from the opener of -13½ to -16 for their home game against Wyoming.
Boise State hasn’t covered one home game yet this year and the line has remained -16 throughout the week for their game against TCU. Their body of work on the season has impressed the BCS and they remain in quick sand with the rest of college football passing them by. This may be their only chance to win with quality style points.
Oregon at Stanford
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
In what will undoubtedly be the most important college football game ever played in Palo Alto, Stanford will host Oregon on Saturday night in a crucial Pac-12 showdown with national implications.
Most betting shops have installed Stanford (9-0 straight up, 9-0 against the spread) as a 3½-point favorite with a total of total of 68. However, we should note that the Las Vegas Hilton moved the number to three and had a total of 69 as of early Friday evening. The Ducks are plus-150 on the money line (risk $100 to win $150).
David Shaw’s team has won eight of its nine games by 25 points or more. Shaw’s squad was tested in Corvallis last week, as Oregon State trailed by only four (17-13) late in the third quarter. But Stanford turned it on in the final 18 minutes, scoring 21 unanswered points en route to a 38-13 win as a 20½-point favorite.
Andrew Luck completed 20-of-30 passes for 206 yards and three touchdowns against the Beavers. Stepfan Taylor rushed 13 times for 95 yards, while Tyler Gaffney tallied 56 yards and one TD on 12 carries.
The win was bittersweet for the Cardinal, however, as it lost senior wide receiver Chris Owusu to a concussion. For the third time this year, Owusu took a vicious hit to the head/neck area and was taken off the field on a stretcher. He is ‘out’ this week but might be able to return later this season. Owusu has 35 receptions for 376 yards and two TDs this year.
Stanford sophomore tight end Zach Ertz was also lost for an indefinite period of time after sustaining a knee injury. The Cardinal is deep at the TE position, but it will nonetheless miss Ertz and his 22 catches for 308 yards and three TDs.
Oregon (8-1 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) has won eight in a row since losing to LSU in the season opener. The Ducks are off a 34-17 win at Washington as 16 ½-point road favorites last week.
LaMichael James was the catalyst with 156 rushing yards and one touchdown on 25 carries. Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas also rushed for one TD apiece.
Chip Kelly’s squad has been dynamite in three road games this year, compiling a 3-0 record both SU and ATS with convincing wins at Arizona (56-31), at Colorado (45-2) and at Washington.
This is the first underdog spot for Oregon this season. In fact, this is just the second road ‘dog situation for the Ducks since Chip Kelly was hired before the 2009 campaign. In the previous game as a road ‘dog in the ’09 season opener, Oregon got thumped 19-8 at Boise St. in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated.
Since 2008, Stanford has cashed tickets at a 13-5 ATS clip in 18 games as a road favorite.
The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Ducks, but they have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their three true road assignments. As for Stanford, it has watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 overall but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in its four home games.
Sportsbook.com is offering a slew of proposition bets for this Pac-12 showdown. For instance, the ‘over/under’ for Oregon’s points scored is 32½ and Stanford’s is 36. Both totals have 30-cent lines and therefore are available at a minus-115 price.
Andrew Luck’s total for completions is 23½ at the offshore website. Luck’s total for passing yards is 300½. Also, Taylor’s ‘over/under’ for rushing yards is 95.5 flat (minus-115 either way).
As for Oregon, RB LaMichael James has a total of 135½ for his rushing yards. Meanwhile, Darron Thomas has an ‘over/under’ for completions (14½).
When these teams met in Eugene last season, Stanford raced out to a 21-3 lead in the first quarter. However, the Ducks stormed back and outscored the Cardinal 28-0 in the second half, eventually winning by a 52-31 score as 6½-point home favorites.
Luck threw for 341 yards and two TDs but he was also picked off twice. Taylor rushed for 113 yards and one TD on 17 carries. Thomas led the winners with 239 passing yards and three TDs, in addition to 117 rushing yards and one score. James also had a huge performance, finishing with 257 rushing yards and three TDs on 31 carries.
ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
By the second Saturday of November, we usually have a solid favorite to the Heisman Trophy, but that’s not the case in 2011. Sportsbook.com has Alabama running back Trent Richardson listed as the plus-400 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $400). The second-shortest odds are shared by Stanford’s Luck and Boise St. QB Kellen Moore, both of whom have plus-500 odds. Houston QB Case Keenum and Oklahoma St. signal caller Brandon Weeden have plus-800 and plus-1200 odds, respectively.
BoDog’s updated future odds look like this: LSU is the plus-150 favorite (risk $100 to win $150, followed by Alabama (+350), Oregon (+400), Oklahoma State (+525), Stanford (+600). Boise St. is a 16/1 longshot.
Sportsbook.com has these numbers for upcoming college football games in its Games of the Year section:
Boise St. -22 at San Diego St.
Ohio St. -3.5 vs. Penn St.
Texas A&M -4 vs. Texas
Alabama -16 at Auburn
Mississippi St. -14 vs. Ole Miss
Clemson -1 at South Carolina
Michigan -5 vs. Ohio St.
LSU -15.5 vs. Arkansas
FSU -4 at Florida
Stanford -9.5 vs. Notre Dame
Oregon at Stanford: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal (-3.5, 68)
THE STORY: Last week’s LSU-Alabama showdown was offensively challenged, but that likely won’t be an issue Saturday when No. 6 Oregon visits No. 2 Stanford. The Ducks and Cardinal both average more than 45 points and both teams rank among the top 10 nationally in most offensive categories. Stanford, off to its first 9-0 start since 1951, is aiming to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 18 games. The Cardinal, who are No. 4 in the BCS behind LSU, Oklahona State and one-loss Alabama, are also looking to make a statement and move up in the standings. Oregon has won 18 straight conference games since a 51-42 loss at Stanford in 2009.
LINE MOVES: Stanford opened at -3.5 and the line has remain fairly steady with some movement to -4. The total has moved from 66 to 68 points.
ABOUT OREGON (8-1, 6-0 Pac-12 North, 5-3-1 ATS): LaMichael James, who ranks first in the nation with 151.6 yards rushing per game, had 156 rushing yards last week at Washington for his 22nd 100-yard rushing game. Oregon’s no-huddle offense leads to quick scores, which helps explain why the Ducks rank 51st in the nation in time of possession at only 23:52 per game. Oregon leads the Pac-12 with 29 sacks, while Stanford has allowed only four. Young cornerbacks Troy Hill, Terrance Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu will be tested against Stanford, but the Ducks’ pass defense has been solid all season.
ABOUT STANFORD (9-0, 7-0, 9-0 ATS): The injuries keep piling up for Stanford, which could be without wide receiver Chris Owusu, tight end Zach Ertz, linebacker Shayne Skov, kicker Jordan Williamson and offensive tackle Cameron Fleming. Heisman Trophy favorite Andrew Luck ranks fifth in the nation in passing efficiency while completing 71 percent of his throws with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. Stanford ranks fourth in the nation in third-down conversions. Linebacker Chase Thomas leads the conference in sacks (6.5) and tackles for loss (12.5).
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Stanford offensive tackle Jonathan Martin is one of four finalists for the Lombardi Award. The winner will be announced Dec. 7 in Houston.
2. The Cardinal are the only team in the nation to score on every red zone opportunity (52-for-52, 41 touchdowns).
3. The Ducks have won eight of the last nine meetings between the schools, but Stanford leads the all-time series 44-29-1.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Stanford.
* Ducks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
PREDICTION: Stanford 45, Oregon 38 - The Cardinal keep their national title hopes alive in dramatic fashion. Look for the powerful Stanford run game, led by Stepfan Taylor, to be the difference.
NCAAF Week 11
Saturday's best games
Pitt won its last three games vs Louisville by combined score of 96-20; favorites covered five of last six series games. Cardinals won last three games, by 2-17-3 points; they covered last five, but are just 7-11 in last 18 games as home favorite. Panthers lost three of last four games, but covered three of four as an underdog. Pitt is 8-3-2 in last 13 games as road underdog, 0-1 this year. Big East home teams are 6-2 vs spread in games where spread is 4 or less points. Under is 6-1-1 in Louisville games, 3-1 in Pitt’s last four.
Michigan won seven of last nine games against Illinois, winning four of last five visits here- they lost 38-13 in last visit in ’09. Wolverines lost last two road games, but covered five of seven as a favorite this year- since 2008 they’re 1-6 as road favorites, 2-3 as favorite vs Illini. Illinois lost last three games, scoring 7-14-7 points; they lost 67-65 LY in Ann Arbor. Illini is -7 in turnovers the last five games. Since ‘03, Illini are 10-12 as home underdogs. Big 11 home underdogs are 4-1 vs spread if spread is 7 or less points. Under is 5-2 in last seven Michigan games, 6-2 in Illini games.
Since 2003, NC State is 0-10 vs spread as a road favorite, 0-1 this year. Wolfpack lost three of four on road this year, with only win at Virginia. NC State coach O’Brien is former Boston College coach; his Wolfpack won three of last four games, shutting out rival UNC last week, but State lost last three visits here, by 32-20-20 points, as home teams won last five series games. Eagles are 1-7 vs I-A teams, with six of seven losses by 7+ points; they’re 2-3 as home dog under Spaziani, who is Penn State alum, so tough week for him. ACC home underdogs of less than 5 points are 4-1 vs spread. Last three NC State games, seven of last BC games stayed under the total.
Underdogs covered five of last seven Texas A&M-Kansas State games, with teams splitting last four played here and K-State winning last two meetings, 62-14/44-30. Both sides lost last two weeks, with K-State allowing 58-52 points to the Oklahoma schools; A&M allowed 38-41 points in losses to Mizzou/Oklahoma- they’re -10 in turnovers this year, Wildcats are +14. Snyder is 8-4 vs spread in his last dozen games as home underdog; Six of last seven K-State games went over the total. Big 12 home underdogs of less than 20 points are 3-7 vs spread this season.
Visitor won eight of last nine Miami-Florida State games, covering nine of last ten; Hurricanes won four of last five visits here, with dogs 5-1 vs spread in last six series games played here. Three of FSU’s last four series wins were by three or less points. Seminoles won/covered last four games overall, with QB Manuel back in lineup, outscoring foes 96-6 in first half. ‘canes have four losses, but none of them are by more than 8 points. Miami is 7-8 vs spread in its last 15 games as a road dog; Seminoles are 7-3 as home favorites under Fisher. Five of last six Miami games went over the total.
Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in last eight West Virginia-Cincinnati games; WVU won three of last four visits here, with three of the four decided by 5 or less points. Mountaineers allowed 49-31-38 points in last three games; since 2002, they’re 12-5 as a road underdog, 1-0 this year. Bearcats won last six games, the last two by 3 points each- they outscored last five foes 89-28 in second half. UC is 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Cincy was +14 in turnovers its first four games, minus-1 in last four. Last seven West Virginia games went over the total; four of last five Bearcat games stayed under.
Texas won its last six games vs Missouri, last three by average score of 49-19; Longhorns won last three visits here by 34-8-25 points- they’re 2-2 as series road favorite. Texas is 5-1 as favorite this year, 2-0 on road; only teams to beat them are the two Oklahoma schools, both top 5 teams. Mizzou lost four of last six games, but they scored 38+ in three of last four. Tigers are 1-3 in last four games as home underdog. Big 12 home teams are 4-1 vs number when spread is less than 5 points. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Texas games, 3-1 in last four Mizzou tilts.
How weird will Nebraska-Penn State game be after all that happened this week? Athletes generally don’t do well with distractions, and this week has been one huge distraction after another in Happy Valley. Unsure if crowd will show up, and if those who do show up will cheer. Nebraska won three of last four games, losing at home to Northwestern last week; they’re 2-1 on road, with favorite covering all three games. Under is 6-1-1 in Penn State games, 3-0 in last four Nebraska games. No idea how anyone could wager on Penn State in this strangest of games.
Texas Tech upset Sooners in Norman three weeks ago; since then, they’ve lost 41-7/52-20- they’ve now allowed 34+ points in last seven games. Since 2006, Red Raiders are 5-1 as home underdogs, 1-0 this year. Home side won eight of last nine Oklahoma State-Texas Tech games; Cowboys lost six of last seven visits here, winning 34-17 (+3) here LY. Only one of Cowboys’ last five series wins was by more than 7 points. State won its four road games by average score of 43-28; they’re 3-0 as a road favorite this season. Over is 7-1 in Texas Tech games, 3-1-1 in last five OSU games.
Michigan State won five of its last six games, but they’ve struggled on road, scoring just 13-10-3 points away from home. Spartans are 6-1-1 in last eight tries as a road favorite. Hawkeyes are 5-0 at home, upsetting Michigan here last week. Iowa won four of last five games vs Michigan State, with Spartans losing last five visits here; underdogs covered six of last nine series games, as Hawkeyes covered last two tries as series home dog. Four of last five Iowa home games went over the total. Iowa is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games as a home underdog.
Florida lost four of last five games, outscored 76-20 in second half- they had to hang on to beat Vanderbilt 26-21 last week; Gators covered once in last five tries as a road underdog, but they’re 12-2 in last 14 games vs South Carolina, winning six of last seven visits here. This is first time in at least 15 years Gamecocks are favored to beat Florida. First home game in five weeks for Carolina team that scored 14 or less points in three of last five games- they’re 6-7 in last 13 games as home favorite. SEC home favorites of 12 or less points are 6-2 this year. Under is 5-2 in last seven Carolina games, 2-5 in last seven Florida games.
Underdogs covered five of last six Washington-USC games, with Huskies winning 32-31/16-13 in last two meetings, after Trojans had won previous seven matchups. Huskies are 53, but their losses are by 13 at Nebraska, 44 at Stanford, 17 vs Oregon- they’re 6-15 in last 21 games as road underdog, 1-2 this year. Trojans won four of last five games, scoring 30+ in all five games. USC is 5-10 in its last 15 games as home favorites, 2-2 this year. Pac-12 home favorites are 13-8 vs spread, but 2-4 if line is between 10-20 points. Over is 3-1 in last four Washington games, 5-2 in USC’s last seven.
Georgia hasn’t lost since an 0-2 start, covering five of last six games; only two of their five SEC wins are by more than 8 points. Richt covered six of last eight tries as a home favorite. Dawgs won four of last five games vs Auburn; favorites covered six of last nine series games. Tigers lost three of last four visits here, losing by 7-25-19 points. Tigers are 4-3 in last seven games, with all three losses by 14+ points; they’re 1-3 as a road underdog this season. Double digit home favorites are 9-3 vs spread in SEC games this season. Lack of a quality QB has killed Auburn this year; what if Russell Wilson had one here instead of Wisconsin?