College Football Betting News and Notes Week 12

Big 10 Report - Week 12
By ASA

With only two weeks remaining before the inaugural Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis, the Leaders & Legends divisions are finally taking shape. Wisconsin and Michigan State each control its own destiny while Nebraska, Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State all remain in the hunt. Here's an inside look at each matchup in the Big Ten.

Michigan (-3) vs. Nebraska

MICH: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, W 31-14
NEB: 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS - Last week: at Penn State, W 17-14

Nebraska has won two straight Big Ten games after getting blown out by Wisconsin in its first conference game as a member. The Huskers beat hapless Minnesota (41-14) and a PSU team in turmoil last week (17-14). Neither team controls its own destiny in the Legends division as Michigan State would need to lose one for either to have a chance. But the winner of this game stays alive in the division race and also a shot an at-large BCS bid while the loser is eliminated from both.

This game features two of the top rushing QB's in the nation. Nebraska's Martinez has rushed for 768 yards (5.0) with 9 touchdowns (Nebraska ranks 12th nationally in rush offense). Michigan's Robinson has accumulated 910 rush yards (5.7) with 12 touchdowns (Michigan ranks 13th nationally in rush offense). Both struggle in the passing game, however, and this game will likely come down to which defense can effectively limit the opposing QB's rush yards. Robinson also injured his wrist in last week's win over Illinois, but is fully expected to play here.

Nebraska's "Blackshirts" are allowing 180 rush yards in Big Ten play and have struggled against elite rushing attacks. Michigan is allowing just 108 rush yards per game in Big Ten play and is off of a dominating performance of Illinois. The Wolverines held the Illini to just 37 rush yards on 33 carries (1.1 YPC).

Something to consider: Michigan plays its final two games at home after traveling for four of the previous five. The Wolverines are 6-0 at home this season, winning by 26 PPG (average score 37-11).

Ohio State (-6.5) vs. Penn State

OSU: 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, L 23-26 (OT)
PSU: 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, L 14-17

Despite all of the off-field distractions facing Penn State last week, the Nittany Lions performed admirably albeit in a loss against Nebraska. They outgained the Huskers and had a chance to win at the end, but were stopped on downs with 1:55 remaining to seal the defeat. It will be tough for PSU to travel after that emotional home game (their first since 1965 without Joe Paterno as head coach) and play as motivated against an OSU squad off of a loss.

OSU freshman QB Miller is a great raw talent that still makes some bad reads and mistakes. He's completing 50% of his passes this season with eight touchdowns and three interceptions and has rushed for an additional 490 yards and five scores. The offense is limited in its play-calling with him under center and this unit ranks just 108th in total offense and 74th in scoring offense. PSU is, by far, the best defense that Miller will face this season. PSU is allowing just 287 yards per game (8th nationally) and 13 points per game (3rd). Due to a scheduling realignment when Nebraska joined the conference, PSU will visit OSU for the second consecutive year. Last year here, Penn State held a 14-3 lead at halftime before OSU scored 35 unanswered 2nd half points to get the blowout victory. Matt McGloin threw two 2nd half interceptions that were both returned for touchdowns.

Something to consider: OSU has covered seven straight games off of a straight up loss. Penn State is 1-8 SU & ATS in Columbus and is averaging 12 PPG over that span (hasn't scored over 20 points).

Illinois (+14) vs. Wisconsin

ILL: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan, L 14-31
WISC: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS - Last week: at Minnesota, W 42-13

Wisconsin won its first road game of the season in dominating fashion last week with a 42-13 beatdown at Minnesota. They had 20 more first downs than Minnesota and a +305 yard advantage. This will be the Badgers' fourth road game in five weeks before finishing the season at home against Penn State. Thanks to help from OSU and PSU last week, the Badgers now control their own destiny and can earn a trip to the Big Ten title game by winning out.

There aren't many weaknesses in this Wisconsin offense. QB Wilson leads FBS in pass efficiency (242 YPG, 73%, 23-5) and Ball leads the FBS in points per game (16.4 points per game!). However, senior leader and top offensive lineman Peter Konz won't play Saturday and could miss the remainder of the regular season.

Illinois has solid defensive rankings across the board (9th total defense & 13 scoring defense), but its offense has been the major problem in the recent four-game skid. Illinois averaged 448 YPG and 35 PPG during its 6-0 start, but is only averaging 288 YPG and 11 PPG during the last four losses. The running game, which carried them the first half of the season, has averaged just 117 YPG (3.1 YPC) the past four. Also, the Illini haven't scored in the first 40 minutes of any game during the losing streak.

Something to consider: These two haven't met since 2008. The home team has won three straight in this series with Illinois winning 31-26 here in 2007. However, Illinois is just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS (including 0-3 last three) in home finales.

Purdue (+2.5) vs. Iowa

PU: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Ohio State, W 26-23 (OT)
IOWA: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan State, L 21-37

Purdue is off of its biggest game of the year, an overtime victory over Ohio State, and will try to bounce back with another home win here against Iowa. Iowa couldn't overcome numerous mistakes last week in a home loss to Michigan State and also lost out on a great opportunity to remain in the hunt in the Legends division. Iowa has dropped five straight road games dating back to last season and is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games. The Hawkeyes are, however, 3-0 ATS this season off of a loss and 11-2-1 ATS the past 14 chances.

The Hawkeyes had two turnovers that turned into 27 & 19 yard touchdown drives for the Spartans last week. Iowa also had a field goal attempt blocked and fumbled at the MSU 8-yard line. Iowa's defense is allowing more points (23.8 PPG) and yards (398 YPG) than it has in the past seven years. The Hawks rank dead last in the Big Ten in pass defense and a big reason for that is lack of a consistent pass rush (only 15 sacks through 10 games).

The Boilers thoroughly dominated the Bucks in the big overtime win last week. They had more first downs and more yards and the defense was able to hold OSU's rushing attack - a strong area for OSU - in check. However, Purdue is still allowing 212 rush yards per game in conference play and they'll have to play well again to slow down Iowa RB Coker. Coker was shutdown by Michigan State last week, but is still averaging 115 rush yards per game with 13 touchdowns this season. As he goes, so does Iowa's offense.

Something to consider: Iowa won the last meeting in 2008 and the Hawks have won four of the past five in the series. The home team is 9-1 (7-3 ATS) last 10 in this series.

Michigan State (-28.5) vs. Indiana

MSU: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, W 37-21
IND: 1-9 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: BYE

Michigan State took command of the Big Ten Legends division with a convincing win at Iowa last week. The Spartans now return home to play their final home game of the season. They are 13-0 at home over the previous two seasons and they've also won the last three home meetings with Indiana by 28 points per game.

Surprisingly, MSU has the worst rush-offense in the Big Ten with just 133 rush yards per game (3.7 YPC). The Spartans will likely see more success against this Indiana defense that hasn't stopped anyone this entire season. The Hoosiers are allowing 283 rush yards per game in Big Ten play and 42 points per game to conference opponents.

Indiana is off of a bye and will try to play spoiler to Michigan State here on Saturday. The Hoosiers have been much more competitive the last three weeks since inserting play-making QB Roberson into the starting lineup. Roberson is averaging a pedestrian 180 pass yards per game with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks, but it's his 92 rush yards per game that make him dangerous. He's got the Hoosiers averaging 27 points per game over the previous three games (18 PPG the first seven without him). A bye week can only benefit Indiana and its young QB.

Something to consider: Michigan State is 11-2 straight up in its last 13 against Indiana and 6-1 ATS last seven. However, the Spartans are 0-5 ATS as a Big 10 favorite of 20+.

Northwestern (-15.5) vs. Minnesota

NW: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Rice, W 28-6
MINN: 2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, L 13-42

The Wildcats can clinch bowl eligibility with a win. Hard to believe that this is the same team that was 2-5 and looked completely lost just three weeks ago. This defense that was allowing 32 points per game over the first eight games has allowed a total of 31 points the past two weeks to Nebraska and Rice.

The Wildcats have a potent offensive attack that ranks 26th in total offense and 44th in scoring offense behind QB Persa - the FBS leader in completion percentage. Persa and this Wildcats spread-option offense could have a big day against this Gopher defense that ranks 113th in pass efficiency defense.

Minnesota is off of a crushing 42-13 defeat at home to archrival Wisconsin. The Gophers were absolutely punchless as they had 20 fewer first downs and were outgained by 305 yards. QB Gray didn't play well and coaches indicated after the game that he's dealing with multiple injuries. Whoever starts at QB for the Gophers doesn't really make a difference, as this unit ranks an abysmal 112th in scoring & total offense.

Something to consider: The visitor is 14-2 ATS in this series and the underdog is 6-2 ATS over the previous eight. Northwestern is just 3-10 ATS as a conference home favorite.

Pac 12 Notebook
By Matt Fargo

Week 11 Rewind

The outcomes in the Pac 12 this past weekend were different than the last two weeks where only one game was decided by single digits each week.

This week none were!

The game that everyone was anticipating ended up being competitive for a half. Oregon took care of Stanford by 23 points (53-30) despite getting outgained 400-387. The Ducks took advantage of five Stanford turnovers and turned three of those into touchdowns. The Cardinal has now lost just twice in 23 games, both coming against Oregon.

Colorado picked up its first ever Pac 12 victory with a resounding 48-29 win over Arizona. The Buffaloes racked up 500 total yards, only the second time they have gained at least 500 yards this season. Colorado held the Wildcats to 60 yards rushing on 23 carries (2.6 ypc) while its own offense ran for 273 yards on 45 carries (6.1 ypc).

USC outgained Washington 426-244 and allowed just one drive of more than four plays in the first half. The Trojans jumped ahead 30-3 as they returned the opening kickoff of the second half for a touchdown and eased off the pedal for a 40-17 win. USC is averaging 39.8 points per game in its last six games after averaging 25.5 PPG in its first four games.

After falling into the situation of controlling its own destiny, UCLA returned to its old form and was shellacked 31-6 at Utah. The Bruins actually outgained the Utes 295-291 but were hurt with two interceptions, two fourth down failures and a missed field goal that resulted in 175 'empty' yards.

California became bowl eligible with a rather easy 23-6 win against Oregon State. The Golden Bears outgained the Beavers 424-270 and it was the rushing advantage that was most prominent. California rushed for 296 yards on 46 carries (6.4 ypc) while the Beavers were held to 27 yards on 21 carries (1.3 ypc).

The biggest upset took place in Pullman as Washington State took down Arizona State 37-11 as an 11 1/2-point underdog. The Cougars outgained the Sun Devils 598-411 as freshman quarterback Connor Halliday threw for 494 yards and four scores. It should be noted however the game was played on a snowy field.

Pac 12 South Debacle

As mentioned, UCLA controlled its own destiny in the Pac 12 South but a loss at Utah made the division even more of a mess. The Trojans are ineligible so even though they are in first place, it means nothing.

A few hours after the UCLA loss, Arizona State lost which put the Bruins back in the drivers’ seat. UCLA holds the tiebreaker over the Sun Devils because of the head-to-head win but the Bruins close the season at USC so winning out is not likely.

The Sun Devils last two games are at home so they have a good shot at a strong finish.

Don't forget about Utah though. The Utes close with games against Washington State and Colorado so should they win out and both UCLA and Arizona State lose once, the Utes will face the North Division winner in the inaugural Pac 12 Championship.

Going Bowling

Six of the 12 teams in the conference are bowl eligible with Utah and California locking up spots this past weekend. They join Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Arizona State as the only teams eligible for the postseason.

UCLA needs one more win while Washington State needs two more wins to join the group. The Cougars upset of Arizona State kept them alive and they must win out with a home game against Utah this week and then facing Washington in the season finale in the Apple Cup.

That game is not a true road game as it takes place at Qwest Field with Husky Stadium undergoing renovations.

"We've been talking about this, particularly the last few weeks," Cougars head coach Paul Wulff said, "to continue to improve our aggression, to continue to play at a high level for four quarters and to play with more attitude on a consistent basis."

He may need his team to win out in order to save his job.

Game of the Week

The game of the week has the second highest point-spread of the six conference games on Saturday but it has the makings of a good one.

USC is playing very solid despite the fact it is not eligible for any postseason games. The offense is clicking at a high caliber right now and it will need to continue that in order to keep up with Oregon.

You only need to look back to last season to prove that as USC took the lead on the Ducks early in the third quarter 32-29 but Oregon ran off 24 unanswered points to end the game as the Trojans offense stalled with two turnovers on downs, an interception and a punt in their final four possessions.

The one edge for USC is a possible letdown by Oregon following the win at Stanford.

The Ducks are listed as 14 1/2-point favorites.

VegasInsider.com

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 12
By Adam Thompson

Southern Miss Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 62.5)

Why Southern Miss will cover: USM is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, and UAB is outmatched in every phase, ranking in the bottom 25 in every defensive category.

Why UAB will cover: The Blazers may not win, but they can come close enough, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight. A passing game that ranks 54th has kept them around.

Points: USM should score big, and UAB is a good catch-up team.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)

Why North Carolina will cover: The Hokies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Virginia Tech likes to run, and UNC is 18th nationally at stopping it. The offense is good enough to keep the team in the game.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The defense has stifled better offenses and the Hokies average 226 yards passing and 207 yards rushing, putting a lot of pressure on a mediocre UNC unit. Plus, who’s going to go against the Hokies at home, at night?

Points: The over has hit in three of UNC’s last four and is 3-1-1 for VT lately.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+26.5, 66)

Why Oklahoma State will cover: The Cowboys are on a roll ATS, 8-1 in their last nine. The offense, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and passing, has overwhelmed everyone, and ISU isn’t particularly great at stopping it. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight Big 12 games.

Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones can run the ball, averaging 183 ypg. Keeping OSU’s offense off the field is critical.

Points: Despite the high-scoring offense, the under has been the trend for OSU games, as well as ISU.

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-28.5, 53)

Why Indiana will cover: Michigan State prefers to throw more than run and Indiana, if it has a strength, it’s pass defense.

Why Michigan State will cover: MSU ranks 12th or higher in every defensive category, so it’s a mystery how the Hoosiers will get into the end zone. The Spartans offense has scored 28 or more four of the last five weeks.

Points: The over has hit in IU’s last five and in three of MSU’s last four.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 50.5)

Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers are 12th in rushing and the defense has improved by leaps and bounds lately.

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines, meanwhile, are 13th in rushing. But unlike Nebraska (66th), Michigan is adept at also stopping the ground game, ranking 36th.

Points: The under is 6-2 when Michigan has been a favorite and has hit four straight for both teams. There’s going to be a lot of running the rock.

Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+14, 52)

Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers control their own Big Ten destiny, and appear back on track after a two-week hiccup. They rank No. 4 in scoring (46.5 ppg) and No. 6 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg). They do half that well and they’ll cover.

Why Illinois will cover: The Illini has been solid at slowing down opponent rushing attacks. If they can do it and get their own ground attack going, anything can happen.

Points: The over has hit in six of the last eight meetings, though the under has hit in Illinois’ last four.

Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs (-30.5, 48)

Why Kentucky will cover: The Wildcats must win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They should at least give it their all. The defense is good enough to hang around.

Why Georgia will cover: Georgia should stifle UK’s offense in every way and its own balanced offense may simply be too much. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall and as favorites.

Points: The under is 5-2 in UGA’s last seven but the over is 4-1 in UK’s last five.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils (+10.5, 55)

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Duke can only move the ball through the air, and GT’s defensive strength is slowing the pass (16th). Duke’s depth isn’t conducive to Tech’s punishing run attack.

Why Duke will cover: Four of Duke’s seven losses have come by 10 points or less. The team passes a lot.

Points: The under is 10-2-1 in Duke’s last 13 and hit in four straight for GT before last week’s over (by 1.5 points).

SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars (-19.5, 77.5)

Why SMU will cover: While not as explosive as Houston, SMU can throw the ball (18th in passing) and has the potential to erupt.

Why Houston will cover: Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five despite spreads of 24 or more the last four. The Cougars score fast and often and don’t let up.

Points: Houston has scored 56 or more four straight games, and SMU can do its part when it’s on.

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+7.5, 52.5)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers have the firepower on offense to run away from the Wolfpack. And once they get a lead, their 20th-ranked pass defense will do the rest.

Why North Carolina State will cover: Clemson lost and barely won in its last two games after the strong start; perhaps NC State found a chink that can help keep the game close. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, for what it’s worth.

Points: The under is 4-0 in NC State last four.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 39)

Why Penn State will cover: All distractions aside, the Lions’ defense stills ranks No. 3 in scoring (12.9 ppg) and No. 5 against the pass (167.7 ypg).

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes had won three in a row before last week’s debacle at Purdue. Still, OSU appears on the way up, and Penn State certainly does not.

Points: Both teams struggle mightily on offense, but that number is pretty low. The over has hit in OSU’s last three.

Colorado State Rams at TCU Horned Frogs (-33, 58)

Why Colorado State will cover: While the Rams haven’t been great, they’ve been in all but one game this season (Boise St.).

Why TCU will cover: TCU is 23rd in rushing (208 ypg), while CSU is 113th at stopping it. CSU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11.

Points: The over is 8-2 in TCU’s last 10, and is unlikely to be slowed on this day.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 53.5)

Why Mississippi State will cover: MSU’s defense is a solid 14th against the pass, matching up with Arkansas’ offensive strength. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four.

Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks’ offense has run around the competition lately, and the team is 4-2 ATS in its last six. An underrated defense ranks 30th in points allowed, and MSU struggles to score anyway.

Points: The under is 6-2 in MSU’s last eight, but the over is 6-2 in Arkansas’ last eight.

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-24.5, 47.5)

Why Boston College will cover: The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. B.C. will try to run the ball, shortening the game.

Why Notre Dame will cover: Notre Dame has no major strengths, but no major weaknesses, either. Boston College’s defense is ordinary, but the offense has been unproductive. Notre Dame faced similar spreads in two of its last three games, and covered both.

Points: The under is 5-0-1 in B.C.’s last six, and Notre Dame’s defense has improved of late.

LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+28.5, 46.5)

Why LSU will cover: Ole Miss has given up on the season and its coach, who has resigned effective at the end of the season. It’s hard to imagine the Rebels’ anemic offense scoring on the Tigers’ second-ranked defense.

Why Mississippi will cover: Maybe LSU comes in bored. Or maybe the Rebels’ new QB and RB – the usual starters are suspended – provide some spark.

Points: The under has been hitting for both teams of late.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles (-17, 47)

Why Virginia will cover: The Cavs have covered in four of their last five, led by a ground game that milks the clock and a defense that’s allowed 13-21 points in five of the last six.

Why Florida State will cover: The Seminoles’ strengths — pass offense, run defense — match up perfectly with Virginia’s weaknesses — pass defense, run offense.

Points: The under is 7-1 in Virginia’s last eight, 3-0 in FSU’s last three and 8-0 in the last eight meetings.

Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs (+18.5, 55.5)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos have something to prove after the last-second loss to TCU. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six.

Why San Diego State will cover: Boise State is faltering, 0-3 ATS in its last three. And the Aztecs do average 190 rushing and 218 passing per game.

Points: Boise State is due to for another breakout, and the over is 5-0 in its last five. SDSU can score, too.

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (-15.5, 67)

Why USC will cover: USC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on the road, and while Oregon’s run offense is great (fifth), USC’s run defense (eighth) is also strong. The Trojans’ passing game has the potential to overpower anyone.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS, including last week’s beatdown of Stanford. USC’s pass defense is 100th, and Oregon’s offense will prevent the Trojans from focusing on one thing.

Points: It could be an entertaining shootout.

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+15.5, 75)

Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma’s offense is just as powerful, and more balanced, than Baylor’s, and the defense is light years better. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s passing offense is sixth nationally (357 ypg), while OU is 71st at stopping it. The Bears are just 1-3 on the road, but undefeated at home.

Points: Both teams should struggle to stop the other. The over is 6-1-1 for Baylor and 5-2 in OU’s last seven.

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-9.5, 53.5)

Why Kansas State will cover: No ranked team has been more disrespected by the pollsters than K-State, but the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine. The team can run the ball (22nd) and stop the run (26th), and it’s worked.

Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are even better at running the ball (15th) and stopping the run (10th), and are at home, at night. Plus, Texas can also throw the ball and play pass defense, something K-State has been unable to do with consistency.

Points: Both teams can score, but both like to use a clock-draining ground game to do it.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-19, 55.5)

Why California will cover: Stanford still struggles to slow the pass, which is Cal’s strength on offense. The Bears are decent across the board on defense. Not great, but decent.

Why Stanford will cover: Stanford had covered every game until last week’s loss to Oregon. The Cardinal is stronger on both sides of the ball than the Bears, and should come out fired up.

Points: While Stanford has been hitting the over, the under is 7-0 in Cal’s last seven.

This Week in the ACC
Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Despite the looming effect of a potential 'Bubble Burst', WR Sammy Watkins said Clemson has had a better focus in practice after losing at Georgia Tech.

"I see a bunch of guys that realized we can be beaten and that we have to come out and play every game not just against Florida State or Auburn," said Watkins.

Clemson can clinch a division title against Wake Forest on Saturday.

Appearances Can Be Deceptive

Coach Jimbo Fisher said Miami, despite four losses and numerous allegations surrounding the program, looks as talented as ever.

"Like always," Fisher said. "They've got big guys, they've got fast guys, and they've got talented guys. They always have, they always do and they always will."

The secondary expects to be tested by Miami WR Tommy Streeter in Saturday's game at Doak Campbell Stadium.

"He's a home-run threat, right off the bat," Fisher said. "He's going to be a high-drafted guy and is going to make a lot of money one day."

Two starters are expected back for FSU, senior OG David Spurlock (knee) and freshman WR Rashid Greene (ankle). Both players have been sidelined since the Wake Forest game Oct. 8.

Spurlock is a four-year starter. Greene has a team-high six TD catches.

Wait Until Next Year

Coach Randy Edsall said next season should be much easier than his first one in College Park.

"There is no question it will," he said. "I have had the opportunity to talk to Paul Johnson and Mike London and what they have gone through. Everyone has a philosophy and a plan of action and you are going to install that."

Edsall appears to be preparing for next year this season, starting five freshmen on the defensive side of the ball.

Furthermore, WR Quentin McCrea said rotating QBs Danny O'Brien and C. J. Brown prevents the offense from finding a rhythm.

"It's a different kind of rotation, speed and play calling, so it's difficult," McCrea said. "But in the end we still have to come out and win."

For The Cheese

When Georgia Tech hosts Virginia Tech at Bobby Dodd Stadium the two teams will be playing for the top spot in the ACC Coastal division standings.

The Yellow Jackets (4-2) trail the Hokiest (4-1) by a half-game with Virginia (3-2) lurking in the shadows.

The Cavaliers edged the Jackets, 24-21, a month ago in Charlottesville and would control their own destiny should the Hokies fall.

From The Database

• ACC Head-to-Head: Host in Boston College/NC State series is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS… Duke is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS L4 meetings with Cavaliers… favorite in Florida State/ Miami Florida series is 0-6 SU and ATS L6 meetings… host in Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech series is 2-6 ATS… Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS off a loss versus Tigers.

• ACC Coaches: Florida State's Fisher is 15-1 SU and 11-3 ATS versus .700 or less opponents… Georgia Tech's Johnson is 17-9 ATS with rest… Maryland's Edsall is 5-1 ATS as a home dog off a SU and ATS loss… Miami Florida's Golden is 20-6-2 ATS as a dog of 24 or less points… NC State's O'Brien is 19-8-2 ATS in games off a SU dog win… Virginia Tech's Beamer is 25-10 SU and 23-10-2 ATS versus an opponent off a SU dog win… Wake Forest's Grobe is 12-6-2 ATS versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss.

• STAT OF THE WEEK: After starting his career 5-0 ATS at home with Boston College, Frank Spaziani has gone 1-10 ATS in his next 11 home games.

15-0 Super System
Robbie Gainous

In our never-ending search for profitable against the spread situations, we investigated overtime games for this week’s college football system of the week.

An overtime game takes on added significance for college teams, which may mean a highly determined effort or a big letdown in their next game. Overtime with its short history relative to college football, overall, has seen some strong patterns emerge and we examine one of those here.

The situation we isolated for this week looks at certain home favorites who are coming off an overtime loss as a favorite in their last game. These Saturday home favorites have struggled the following week as outlined in our system.

SYSTEM: Play AGAINST a Saturday conference home favorite off a favorite OT SU loss vs. an opponent not off a game as a conference home favorite of more than 2 points. Playing against these conference home favorites has produced a record of 15-0 ATS covering the spread by 15.3 points per game since 1998.

Our system was last active with two dates during the 2008 college football season. The first active date was September 27 with East Carolina installed as a 10.5-point favorite versus Houston. East Carolina was the active team in our system and they lost straight up 41 to 24 against the Houston Cougars. On October 11 of the same season, Fresno State was a 32.5-point favorite versus Idaho and they won the game straight up but fell well short of covering the spread winning 45 to 32.

Texas A&M enters this week’s contest against Kansas off a four overtime loss to Kansas State. The Aggies blew a double-digit lead settling for a field goal with the ball on the KSU one-yard line and this ultimately sealed their fate. Kansas State followed that up by scoring ten unanswered points to tie the game. In the fourth overtime, Aggies head coach Sherman once again passed on an opportunity for a touchdown on the three-yard line kicking a field goal instead of going for it on fourth down. Kansas State then scored the game winning touchdown to end the game.

Kansas enters this week’s game off an overtime loss of their own. We note that after a heart-breaking overtime loss as a big underdog, conference road underdogs have been even more determined to get a win. Kansas is active in a system that tells us to Play ON a conference road underdog of 5 or more points with less than 13 days rest off an OT SU loss as an underdog of more than 4 points vs. an opponent not off a SU win of 13 or more points. These road underdogs are 14-1 ATS covering by an average of 13.1 points per game since 1998.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies Texas A&M as our Play AGAINST team this week. Texas A&M is not our favorite, play the Kansas Jayhawks to cover the spread on Saturday.

Oklahoma at Baylor: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+15, 75)

THE STORY: If not for one inexplicable slip-up, No. 5 Oklahoma would be three wins away from playing for the national championship. The Sooners still have a chance to get there, but Baylor and star quarterback Robert Griffin III will try to put those hopes to rest for good - and bolster Griffin's Heisman Trophy campaign in the process - by beating the Sooners for the first time. Oklahoma leads the series 20-0. Baylor is 5-0 at home this season; its last home defeat was last year's 53-24 loss to Oklahoma.

LINE MOVES: Oklahoma opened as a two-touchdown road favorite and has been bet up to as high as -16. The total opened around 75 points and has remained steady at most books.

WEATHER: The forecast in Waco is calling for cloudy skies and winds, blowing south at 12 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 70s.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (8-1, 5-1 Big 12, 6-3 ATS): The Sooners had a week off after a 41-25 home victory over Texas A&M in which they kept alive their dreams of a Big 12 title and potential BCS title game appearance. The Sooners lost star wide receiver Ryan Broyles (torn ACL) in the process, though. Broyles holds the NCAA all-time receptions record with 349 and ranks second all-time with 4,586 receiving yards. The Sooners already had lost running back Dominique Whaley to a broken ankle.

ABOUT BAYLOR (6-3, 3-3, 4-4 ATS): Fourth-year coach Art Briles has led a turnaround at Baylor, and nothing would signify the program's rise more than its first win against Oklahoma. The Bears nearly suffered their own unexpected stumble last week, but survived for a 31-30 victory over lowly Kansas when the Bears rallied from a 21-point deficit in the second half and the Jayhawks failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point conversion in overtime.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Griffin is one of four players in FBS history with more than 9,000 passing yards and 2,000 rushing yards in his career.

2. Oklahoma's defense has produced 15 sacks over the past four games while the offense has allowed only one during that stretch.

3. Oklahoma has won its last eight games away from home and its last five true road games dating to last season.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Baylor.
* Road team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Bears' last seven games as underdogs.
* Over is 5-2 in Sooners' last seven games as favorites.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41, Baylor 33 - Griffin and the Bears' offense are no joke, but Baylor's defense hasn't proven it can stop quality teams.

USC at Oregon Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Coming off its blowout win over Stanford in Palo Alto last week, Oregon is back in the national-title hunt. However, that could change quickly for the Ducks if they don’t take care of business Saturday night at home against Southern California.

Most betting shops have installed Oregon (9-1 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) as a 14½-point favorite with a total of 69. Gamblers can take the Trojans to win outright for a plus-500 return (risk $100 to win $500).

Chip Kelly’s team blasted previously-unbeaten Stanford by a 53-30 count as a three-point road underdog. LaMichael James was the catalyst with 146 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries. QB Darron Thomas threw three TD passes without being intercepted.

Oregon has now won nine in a row since losing 40-27 to LSU in its season opener at Cowboys Stadium. The Ducks are unbeaten in five home games with a 2-2-1 spread record. They were double-digit favorites in each of those contests.

USC (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won five of its last six games and is 4-1 versus the number in its last five outings. The Trojans are coming off a 40-17 home win over Washington as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’

Junior running back Curtis McNeal rushed for 148 yards and one touchdown on just 18 carries against the Huskies. Junior quarterback Matt Barkley threw a touchdown pass and ran for another.

For the season, Barkley has connected on 66.8 percent of his throws for 2,782 passing yards with a 29/6 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Robert Woods is Barkley’s favorite target and one of the country’s premier wide receivers. Woods has 92 receptions 1,126 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Woods sprained his ankle in last week’s win over Washington but after being limited in practice early in the week, he was upgraded to ‘probable’ after practicing at full speed Thursday.

McNeal has been getting the bulk of the carries in recent weeks. He has a 7.0 yards-per-carry average and has rushed for a team-high 787 yards and five TDs.

Thomas, Oregon’s junior signal caller, has completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 1,704 yards with a 22/5 TD-INT ratio. He can also make plays with his legs, although he has been more consistent about staying in the pocket this year.

Despite missing a pair of games with a dislocated elbow, James has rushed for 1,207 yards and 12 TDs with a 7.9 YPC average. He also has 13 catches for 175 yards and one TD.

Oregon owns a 10-4-2 spread record as a home favorite during Kelly’s three-year tenure. Meanwhile, USC is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog on Lane Kiffin’s watch.

When these teams collided last season, Oregon ran away with a 53-32 victory as a six-point road favorite. Thomas threw for 288 yards and four TDs, while James produced 239 rushing yards and three TDs. Barkley ran for a score and had one TD pass, but he was intercepted twice in the losing effort.

The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Ducks this year, 3-2 in their home games. As for the Trojans, their totals have been a wash overall (5-5) and on the road (2-2).

The ‘under’ is 6-3 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these Pac-12 rivals, but the ‘over’ has hit in the last two encounters.

Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

NCAAF Week 12

Saturday's best games

Home side won nine of last ten Iowa-Purdue games, with Hawkeyes winning four of last five, even though they lost four of last five visits here, with favorites 4-1 vs spread in those five games. Iowa is 0-3 on road, with losses at Iowa State/Minnesota; they’re 3-3 as favorite this year, 1-5 in last six tries as road favorite. Purdue won last three home games, scoring 45-21-26 points; they’ve been outscored 68-16 in second half of last four games. Boilers are 5-2-1 in last eight games as home dog. Six of last nine Iowa games went over the total. Home teams are 1-4-1 vs spread in Big Dozen games where spread is less than 4 points.

Tennessee won 13 of last 14 games vs Vanderbilt, winning last five in row, with four of five by 10+ points; Vandy lost six of last seven visits here, with four of five losses by 15+ points, but Vols are 0-6 in SEC for first time ever and were outscored 87-0 in second half of last five games. Vandy passing game averaging 213.3 ypg in last three games behind young Rodgers, but Commodores are 0-3 on road, outscored 81-24. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Tennessee games, but last five Vandy games went over. Both teams need this game in attempt tp become bowl eligible. SEC home teams are 6-2-1 vs spread in games where spread is less than 4 points.

Washington State freshman QB Halliday gets first start after coming off bench and throwing for 494 yards in rainy upset win over Arizona State last week, which snapped Coogs’ 5-game losing skid; where they been hiding him? Utah won/covered last three games, with all three wins by 13+ points; they’re 3-2 on road this year, 2-1 as favorite- they’re 12-9 in last 21 games as road favorite (0-0 this year). Utes are 6-0 when they allow 21 or less points; all of their wins are by 12+ points; they’re 0-4 allowing more than 21. Four of last five Utah games stayed under total; three of last four Wazzu games went over. Pac-10 home underdogs of 12 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.

Arizona State had bitter road defeats last two weeks, scoring 27-28 points in losses as road favorites of 8-12 points; they still get to Pac-12 title game if they win last two games. ASU is 4-0 at home vs I-A foes (2-2 as home faves) winning by 7-21-15-34 points. Arizona is 1-4 as an underdog this year, but underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven Arizona-ASU games, with Wildcats losing three of last four visits here—Arizona’s last three games in Tempe were all decided by exactly 3 points. Sun Devils are 8-4 in last 12 series games, with five of last seven decided by 7 or less points. Last seven ASU games, six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.

Interesting to see how Stanford bounces back from first loss, getting pounded at home by Oregon last week; Cardinal is 4-1 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 54-26-41-44 points. Stanford crushed Cal 48-14 LY, just second win in last nine games vs archrival Bears. Cal won three of last four games, allowing 10 or less points in all three wins; they’re 0-3 as an underdog this year. Bears won three of last four visits to Farm; underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series meetings here. Pac-10 home favorites of 8+ points are 10-5 vs spread this season. Last seven Cal games stayed under total; three of last four Stanford games went over.

Since 2001, Nebraska is 6-12 vs spread as road underdogs; they’re 0-1 this year, losing 48-17 at Wisconsin, its only loss in four road games (beat two stiffs and Penn State last week). Huskers won four of last five games, stay alive for division title with win here. Michigan split last four games after a 6-0 start; they’re 4-1 as home faves this season, winning in Big House by 24-4-28-21-58-22 points at home. Wolverines were held to 14-16 points in their losses. Nebraska held three of last four foes to 14 or less points. Single digit home favorites are 4-3 in Big Dozen games this season. Last four games for both teams stayed under the total.

Since 2006, Penn State is 0-6 vs spread as a road underdog; Lions go on road for first time since last week’s drama; favorite is 7-0 vs spread in their last seven visits to Ohio State, with OSU winning six of seven, with five of the wins by 11+ points. Buckeyes are 7-2 overall in last nine series games, with last five wins all by 11+ points. Lions scored 16 or less points in six of eight games vs I-A foes; they’re 0-1-1 as underdog this year. OSU allowed 20+ points in each of last three games; they’ve completed 50+% of passes once in last eight games- they’re 2-3 as a home favorite. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Penn State games; four of last five Buckeye games went over.

Cincinnati won its last five games vs Rutgers, gaining 661 yards in LY’s 69-38 drubbing of Knights; Bearcats won last two visits to Garden State by 47-15/28-23 scores. Last week’s home loss to West Virginia snapped Cincy’s 6-game win streak, but they haven’t led at half in any of last four games, with last three all decided by 3 points. Rutgers is 4-1 at home, with only loss in snow to West Virginia, when they were up 31-21 at half; Knights are 4-2 vs spread as underdog this year. Bearcats are 6-0 when allowing 23 or less points, 1-2 when they allow more. Big East home underdogs are 6-2 vs spread this season. Under is 5-1 in last six Cincinnati games, 6-1 in last seven Rutgers tilts.

Kansas State started season 7-0, winning four weeks in row as a dog; since then, they’ve allowed 58-52-50 points in losing two of three games, giving up 1,232 passing yards (8.68 yards/attempt). Wildcats are 3-1 as road dog this year; Snyder covered 14 of last 20 games as an underdog. Texas is 2-3 in last five games with only one INT; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 25-1-43-32 points, and a loss to unbeaten Oklahoma State. Underdog covered last six Kansas State-Texas games; this is just second series meeting since ’06. Wildcats actually won two of last three visits here, but their last trip to Austin was in ’07. Seven of last eight K-State games went over the total.

Underdogs are an amazing 17-2 vs spread in WAC games this season, 10-1 on road; Louisiana Tech is 4-0 as road dog this year, winning last four road games SU while allowing just 14 ppg. Bulldogs won/covered last five games, winning as favorite at Ole Miss last week. Nevada won its last six games with Tech, with five wins by 10+ points; favorites covered six of last seven series games. Tech lost last three visits to Reno by average score of 41-17. Wolf Pack won last five games (4 of 5 at home) after 1-3 start (all four on road), with four wins by 14+ points; they’re 2-2 as home faves this year, 23-9 since 2004. Nevada’s last three games went over the total. Nevada is 4-0 in WAC but didn’t cover any of the four wins.

Road team covered the three Miami-South Florida games, with Bulls winning 23-20 on South Beach LY; anytime Florida schools play, it’s a big recruiting turf game, so this will be spirited, even though teams are mediocre. Miami needs one more win to be bowl eligible; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win at North Carolina- they’re 1-5 this year in games decided by 8 or less points. South Florida’s win at Syracuse last week snapped its 4-game losing streak. Bulls are 4-1 at home, losing 37-34 (-3) to Cincinnati. Big East teams are 4-7 vs spread in non-league games where spread is less than 5 points; ACC teams are 3-4. Five of last seven Miami games went over the total.

Oklahoma won its last 14 games vs Baylor, winning last seven visits here, last six all by 26+ points; road team covered last six series games. Only once in last nine series games have Sooners won by less than 26 points, but Bears are 4-0 at home vs I-A foes this year, scoring 49.3 ppg with wins over TCU/Missouri. Since 2005, Baylor is just 5-15 as home underdog (3-6 under Briles, 1-0 this year). Sooners are 4-0 as road favorites this year, winning on road by 10-38-30-41 points; they scored 58-41 points in two games since getting upset at home by Texas Tech. Over is 7-1 in last eight Baylor games, 5-2 in Sooners’ last seven. Big 12 favorites of 11-19 points are 9-3 vs spread this season.

USC is 8-2, and unranked because they’re on probation; they allowed 43-56 points in their two losses. Trojans won five of last six games, scoring 30+ points in all six games- their only loss in that span was 56-48 OT loss at then-unbeaten Stanford. Oregon won its last nine games, covering six of last eight; they’re 2-2 as home favorite this year, 10-4-1 under Kelly. Favorites covered eight of last ten USC-Oregon games, with Ducks 7-4 in last 11, 5-2 in last seven played here (only one of five losses by more than 7 points); favorite is 4-3 vs spread in Trojans’ last seven visits here. Pac-12 home favorites of 7+ points are 11-5 vs spread this season. Over is 6-3 in Oregon games this season.

College Football Betting Weather Report: Week 12
By Covers.com

The middle of November brings more winter weather. Find out how Mother Nature will impact your college football bets in Week 12:

Akron Zips at Buffalo Bulls (-11.5, 46)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 20 mph at UB Stadium, cooling temperatures into the high 40s.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats (-15.5, 58)

Rain is in the forecast for Evanston, with a 29 percent chance of showers later in the game and winds, blowing South, at speeds of up to 20 mph. Game-time temperatures will fall into the mid 40s.

Kansas Jayhawks at Texas A&M Aggies (-31, 66)

Winds are expected to reach gust of up to 20 mph, blowing south from corner to corner at Kyle Field.

New Mexico Lobos at Wyoming Cowboys (-24, 54)

The forecast in Laramie is calling for a 49 percent chance of snow, with winds blowing west at speeds of up to 25 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 20s – pretty cold for a traveling Lobos squad.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 52.5)

There is a chance of thunderstorms late into this SEC showdown. The forecast calls for a 16 percent chance of showers, starting late in the fourth quarter.

Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers (+2, 58)

Rain is in the forecast for Corvallis, with the 49 percent chance of showers for Saturday’s Pac-12 matchup. Temperatures will dip into the low 40s.

Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-24, 47.5)

Showers could soak this non-conference clash late in the fourth quarter. The forecast is calling for a 13 percent chance of rain, with game-time temperatures falling into the high 40s. Winds are expected to blow south, end to end, at speeds of 16 mph in South Bend.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-7, 58.5)

Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 30s with a chance of snow late into this huge WAC battle. There’s a 10 percent chance of the white stuff.

Utah Utes at Washington State Cougars (+3.5, 50.5)

The forecast for Pullman is calling for a 49 percent chance of snow and game-time temperatures in the low 20s.

FIU Golden Panthers at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (-1.5, 50)

There’s a chance of thunderstorms late into this contest, with a 10 percent chance of rain.

USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (-14.5, 68)

Rain is in the forecast for Pleasant Hill Saturday. There’s a 48 percent chance of showers to start the game, with a 29 percent chance later in the evening. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s.

Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs (+18, 56.5)

The forecast for San Diego is calling for a 25 percent chance of showers to open this MWC matchup.

California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-17.5, 55.5)

The Cardinal had their parade rained on in last week’s loss to Oregon. This week, it’s actual rain in Palo Alto, with a 59 chance of showers Saturday night. Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Hawaii Warriors (-4.5, 63.5)

Rain could dampen the Bulldogs vacation to Hawaii this weekend. There’s a 24 chance of showers late into this WAC matchup.