College Football Betting News and Notes Week 12

Betting Recap - Week 11
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

College Football Week 11 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 44-16
Against the Spread 32-25-3
Home-Away
Straight Up 29-31
Against the Spread 22-35-3
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 31-28-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Iowa (+24, ML +1000) vs. Michigan, 14-13
Pittsburgh (+21.5, ML +1000) at Clemson, 43-42
Georgia Tech (+14, ML +425) at Virginia Tech, 30-20
Louisiana-Monroe (+12.5, ML +400) at Georgia State, 37-23
Rice (+12, ML +350) at Charlotte, 22-21

The largest favorites to cover

Alabama (-28.5) vs. Mississippi State, 51-3
Western Kentucky (-28.5) vs. North Texas, 45-7
Ohio State (-28) at Maryland, 62-3
Wisconsin (-24.5) vs. Illinois, 48-3
Louisiana Tech (-22.5) vs. Texas-San Antonio, 63-35

Top 25 Notes

Alabama picked up a 51-3 victory against Mississippi State, as the Crimson Tide was not partaking in 'Upset Saturday'. The Tide have covered in five stragiht games, improving to 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. ... Penn State continues to roll, winning and covering for the fifth stragiht game at Indiana. The Nittany Lions have scored 41 or more points in each of their past three games, and the 'over' is 3-0 during the span and 8-2 in their 10 games overall this season. ... Next up is a trip to beleaguered Rutgers. ... Boise State snapped a four-game non-cover skid by slapping around Hawai'i in the islands by a 52-16 score. The Broncos entered the game 1-7 ATS in their previous eight outings. The 'over' has covered in back-to-back games for the first time this season for the Broncs. ... Wisconsin posted a 48-3 whitewash of Illinois, improving to 6-1 ATS over their past seven and 8-2 ATS overall on the season.

Louisiana State rebounded after a loss last week to Alabama, topping Arkansas in Fayetteville by a 38-10 score. LSU improved to 4-1 ATS over their past five games after opening the season 2-2 SU/0-4 ATS in their first four outings. The Razorbacks lost their second home game in seven tries, and slipped to 3-4 ATS on their home turf.

Louisville posted a 52-7 road win at Boston College, as Heisman Trophy favorite QB Lamar Jackson accounted for seven touchdowns against a solid defense. The Cardinals are back on track after a bump in the road earlier last month, averaging 46.0 points per game (PPG) over the past three outings while going 2-1 ATS.

Texas A&M slipped for a second straight weekend against a school from the Magnolia State, losing to Mississippi in College Station on a last-second field goal. The Aggies have failed to cover in each of their past six games, and they're 1-3 SU over the past four outings. It was the first cover in five tries for the Rebels, who have won back-to-back games for just the second time this season.

Big Five Conference Report

North Carolina suffered a costly 28-27 loss at Duke Thursday night at Wallace Wade, as the Victory Bell stays in Durham. The Blue Devils kept their faint bowl eligibility hopes alive with the win, and they need to finish with wins at Pittsburgh was Miami-Florida to get back to .500. However, Duke has covered in five in a row and the 'under' is 5-1 in the past six to make the Blue Devils popular at the betting window. ... Georgia Tech helped out UNC, dealing Virginia Tech a tough 30-20 loss to keep the Tar Heels in the driver's seat in the Coastal Division. The 'under' result was the first in six games for the Yellow Jackets. ... North Carolina State posted a 35-20 win at Syracuse for the third straight 'under', and fifth in the past six outings.

Northwestern pounded Purdue 45-17 at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, improving to 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS over the past six games. The Wildcats are 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in four road outings this season. Remember that next week at Minnesota. ... Michigan State posted a 49-0 win against Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights have been blanked three times this season. Sparty snapped a seven-game losing streak, as their last victory came Sept. 17 at Notre Dame.

Kansas dropped their ninth consecutive game against Iowa State by 31-24 score, but the Jayhawks were able to cover for back-to-back games for the first time all season. ... West Virginia posted a 24-20 road win at Texas, improving to 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS in four games away from Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six games for the Mountaineers. ... Baylor dropped their third straight game, slipping to 2-7 ATS overall and they also lost heir QB Seth Russell (leg) to a broken leg.

Washington State roughed up visiting California by a 56-21, earning back-to-back covers after an 0-3 ATS skid. Cal has now dropped three in a row and they're 0-3 ATS during the skid after opening 4-3 SU/ATS in their first seven outings. ... Colorado covered a 17 1/2-point number on the road at Arizona to improve to 8-2 SU/9-1 ATS, including 3-2 SU/5-0 ATS on the road. Their 'over' result snapped a five-game 'under' run for the Buffaloes. ... Oregon was tripped up 52-27 at home against Stanford, falling to 3-7 SU and 1-8-1 ATS. The 'over' improved to 6-1 over the past seven outings heading into their game at Utah next weekend.

Missouri slapped the brakes on a five-game losing streak, topping Vanderbilt by a 26-17 score. The 'under' has cashed in three straight outings for the Tigers. The 'under' is 5-1 in the past six for the Commodores, too. ... Kentucky hung on for the cover at Tennessee, falling 49-36 as 14-point underdogs. The Wildcats are an impressive 6-1 ATS over their past seven games, including 3-0 ATS in their past three away from home. ... South Carolina was dumped 20-7 at Florida, as the 'under' cashed for the third straight games and eighth time in 10 games this season for the Gamecocks. The 'under' is 3-0 in the past three for Florida.

Mid-Major Report

Tulsa picked up a backdoor cover with a touchdown with 5:30 left to cut the Navy lead to 42-40, covering as three-point 'dogs. The Golden Hurricane have covered in five straight games, and the 'over' improved to 6-1 over the past eight outings. ... South Florida picked up their second straight win and cover since their stunning loss to Temple Oct. 21. The Bulls improved to 3-1 ATS in four games on the road, and they'll be back on the road next week at Southern Methodist. The 'over' is also 8-2 in the past 10 for USF.

Florida Atlantic picked up their second consecutive victory with a 35-31 win over Texas-El Paso. It was the first win against an FBS team at home for the Owls this season. The Owls are 2-0 SU against BCS teams from Texas, and 0-7 SU against all over FBS teams. ... Louisiana Tech won for the seventh straight game with a 63-35 win over UTSA. The Bulldogs have covered six in a row, and the 'over' is also 6-0 during the span. They have 13 days off to prepare for Southern Mississippi. ... Speaking of the Golden Eagles, USM lost 51-35 at Old Dominion for their fourth loss in five games, and they're 0-6 ATS over the past six outings. ODU has won six of the past seven outings, and they're also 6-1 ATS during the span. The Monarchs improved to 5-0 SU/ATS in five games at home.

Miami-Ohio won for fifth straight game, which is amazing considering they started out 0-6 SU. The Redhawks are also 5-0 ATS during their win streak. They can become bowl eligible with a win over Ball State in their season finale Nov. 22. ... Eastern Michigan won 48-41 at Ball State to become bowl eligible at 6-4 SU. They also improved to 7-1 ATS over the past eight games, and 8-2 ATS in 10 games overall. ... Akron fell for the third straight games, and they are just 3-8 ATS in 11 games overall. The 'under' is also 6-0 for the Zips after the 'over' hit in their first five games. Akron will face Ohio in their season finale Nov. 22. The 'under' is 8-0-1 in Ohio's past nine.

Air Force held off Colorado State, 49-46, winning for their third consecutive game. The Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their past six games. The 'over' hit for the fifth time in six games for USAFA heading into their game next week at San Jose State. ... UNLV picked up a 69-66 triple-overtime win against Wyoming, cooling off the Cowboys. It was the third 'over' in four games for the Runnin' Rebels, and eighth over in 10 tries.

Idaho picked up 47-14 win at Texas State, their fourth win in five tries as the Vandals became bowl eligible. Idaha has covered five in a row after opening 1-4 ATS in their first five games. ... Arkansas State won for the fifth straight game, and they're 5-0 ATS during the span, after a 41-22 win against New Mexico State. ... Georgia Southern has dropped three in a row, and six of the past seven, and they're 1-7 ATS in their past eight outings.

Bad Beats

Florida State picked up a 45-7 win against Boston College. The 'under' (45) looked good with FSU up 45-0 late in the fourth quarter, but the Eagles scored their only points of the game with 3:21 to go to push the total 'over'.

Alabama punched in a touchdown with 2:34 to go in regulation to push their lead to 51-3 and ruin the day for 'under' (52.5) bettors.

If you bet the 'under' earlier in the week when the total opened at 54.5 through mid-afternoon Saturday when it held steady at 55.5, then you suffered a bad beat. Louisville trailed 12-10 heading into the fourth quarter against Wake Forest, but the Cardinals rattled off 34 points to push the total to 56, including a touchdown with :50 left.

Opening Line Report - Week 12
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Every college football season seems to have one, and this past Saturday was THAT Saturday. You know, the one where multiple national championship contenders lose and the rankings are thrown into chaos?

No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Washington all lost, and while we have to wait until Tuesday to see how the playoff selection committee reacts, Las Vegas bookmakers have already updated their futures odds.

Key to the bookmakers’ numbers but not necessarily the committee’s rankings is anticipating what is about to happen. In other words, the guys running the sports books have to look at what’s remaining on each team’s schedule and guess who’ll be left standing.

"It’s to the point now where you base it on who’s going to get there, who’s got a chance to get there," said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Alabama, obviously, tops the Westgate’s college football futures board at the odds-on price of 4/5. Next is Ohio State at 2/1, and Salmons sees a potentially weird situation for the Buckeyes: it’s possible for them to benefit from being shut out of their conference championship game.

"Ohio State’s in a unique position where if Penn State wins their last two games and Ohio State beats Michigan, Ohio State’s a lock to be in the final four and not even have to play in the Big Ten Championship game, which is really screwy," Salmons said. "That’s what’s wrong with the system. You can’t have this happen."

Salmons raised the Wolverines’ odds to 15/1 after their loss, as their road to a national title now looks extremely difficult.

"Michigan losing (Saturday) eliminates any chance of them getting in with a loss to Ohio State," he said. "Before they had a chance; now that’s gone. Now Michigan has to win at Ohio State and then win two games in the playoffs. If they had won (Saturday), they could make the case that they deserved to go with one loss to Ohio State, but that’s gone now."

Before we get into our weekly discussion of the upcoming slate of games, let’s take a look at the updated futures prices at Salmons’ shop:

Odds to win 2016-17 College Football Playoff

SuperBook
Alabama 4/5
Ohio State 2/1
Louisville 6/1
Clemson 12/1
Michigan 15/1
Wisconsin 15/1
Oklahoma 20/1
Washington 20/1
Penn State 50/1
Washington State 50/1
West Virginia 50/1
Oklahoma State 60/1
Florida 80/1
Utah 80/1
Colorado 80/1
Nebraska 500/1
Boise State 1000/1
Houston 1000/1
Western Michigan 2000/1
San Diego State 9999/1
South Florida 9999/1
Navy 9999/1

Louisville at Houston (no line)

As of Monday, no sports book had this game up because of the uncertain status of Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. It would be a shame if Ward can’t play – despite the Cougars having two losses, if he can go, this one could be a doozy.

John Avello, vice president of race and sports and the Wynn, expects a total in the mid-70s if Ward starts.

As for a point-spread, Louisville would be favored by "a couple of touchdowns" against a full-strength Houston team, and if Ward does not play, "you’re probably looking at closer to three touchdowns," Avello said.

"Is he worth three touchdowns in reality? No. But he is to that team, because I don’t know where their offense is going to come from without him," Avello said.

Oklahoma (-3) at West Virginia

Oklahoma opened -2.5 at the Wynn on Sunday and was laid up to -3 on Monday for its game against West Virginia that has huge implications on the Big 12 championship.

While CG Technology was dealing the Sooners -4.5 on Sunday but moved with the rest of the market to a field goal, Avello envisions the spread increasing as the week progresses.

"There may still be Oklahoma money coming," he said.

West Virginia is 11-1 straight up at home over the last two seasons, but Oklahoma has beaten the Mountaineers four straight years, last year by 20 points and in 2014 by 12.

The Sooners match up well with West Virginia, according to Salmons.

"It’s a game Oklahoma should win because they usually play their best against teams that don’t have great offenses, and West Virginia doesn’t have a great offense," Salmons said. "Oklahoma’s defense is really bad, but against a team like West Virginia, they shouldn’t give up a million points like some of the games they play. I think it’s a game that sets up well for Oklahoma."

Florida at LSU (-14)

This game was originally scheduled for October 8 in Gainesville, but it was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew and eventually rescheduled and moved to Baton Rouge. LSU was about a 1.5-point favorite before the game was called off, and even with the change of venue, this is quite the point spread swing.

In fact, the Wynn opened LSU -11 and was bet up to -14.5.

The reasons for the nearly two-touchdown swing are clear: LSU is playing some of the best football in the nation, while Florida isn’t scaring anybody with its offense (plus, starting Gators QB Luke Del Rio is doubtful).

"That’s not a surprise," Salmons said of the early line move. "Take away the Alabama game, and (LSU is) playing as well as anybody in the country."

He added, "They were tied with Alabama in the fourth quarter. There’s no one (else) in the county that can say that this year. This game is a mismatch at this time, especially with Florida’s offense being just horrendous."

Avello added, "I don’t expect Florida to score a lot, and that’s the reason why the line got driven up. People are thinking Florida may be good for a touchdown at most and LSU may be good for three at home...This figures to be a low-scoring game, especially for Florida. The question is how many can LSU put up."

Indiana at Michigan (-23)

Michigan opened -29 at the Wynn, and a move later Sunday to -26 was contradictory to what we’ve seen in a lot of Michigan games this season. In many cases, bettors can’t wait to lay the points with Jim Harbaugh’s men.

News that Michigan QB Wilton Speight was lost for the season prompted the line to move further downward.

While the Wolverines are coming off their first loss of the season against what Avello believes is an underrated Iowa club, early bettors may be looking for an opportunity to grab a bunch of points with a tough Hoosiers squad.

"It’s not like anybody has blown (Indiana) out," Avello said. "They haven’t had a bad loss all year."

That said, Indiana is just 4-6 ATS.

Clemson (-22) at Wake Forest

Clemson, like Michigan, is a team that just suffered its first loss of the season and saw early action go on its opponent. The Tigers opened -24 at the Wynn and were bet as low as -21.

While Wake is a better-than-expected 6-4 (SU and ATS), doubts persist around Clemson.

"Clemson’s had a lot of close encounters this year," Avello said. "They just had their first loss, but in reality, they could have at least two (more), possibly three (to Louisville, N.C. State, Florida State)."

Buffalo at Western Michigan (-35)

We haven’t written about Western Michigan yet this season, so we’ll drop in a note this week on the 10-0 Broncos.

The Broncos covered the spread in their first five games of the season, but since then are 2-3 ATS. The lesson here is that if you missed the boat on these guys early, now is probably not the time to jump aboard. The betting market has caught on, and the numbers Western Michigan is being asked to lay are reflective of that.

They opened the season as dogs against Northwestern and were single-digit favorites in three of their next four, but their spreads keep getting larger.

"When they became a big favorite, they started having a rougher time (covering spreads)," Avello said. "The prices are too high now."

Early line moves

Here are games that saw the point-spread move two or more points in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Ball State vs. Toledo
Opening line: Toledo -18.5
After 23 hours: Toledo -21

Arkansas State vs. Troy
Opening line: Troy -6.5
After 23 hours: Troy -9

San Diego State vs. Wyoming
Opening line: San Diego State -7
After 23 hours: San Diego State -9.5

Florida State vs. Syracuse
Opening line: FSU -19
After 23 hours: FSU -21

Arizona State vs. Washington State
Opening line: Wash State -24
After 23 hours: Wash State -27

Texas vs. Kansas
Opening line: Texas -21.5
After 23 hours: Texas -23.5

Penn State vs Rutgers
Opening line: Penn State -25.5
After 23 hours: Penn State -28

Oregon vs. Utah
Opening line: Utah -11
After 23 hours: Utah -13

Texas State vs. New Mexico State
Opening line: New Mexico State -7
After 23 hours: New Mexico State -9

Here are games that saw the point-spread move two or more points in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Indiana vs. Michigan
Opening line: Indiana +29
After 23 hours: Indiana +26

Arizona vs. Oregon State
Opening line: Arizona +8.5
After 23 hours: Arizona +6.5

Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Opening line: Wake +24
After 23 hours: Wake +22

ACC Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Virginia at Georgia Tech

Virginia has eight losses and they're already thinking about next season. Meanwhille, the Ramblin' Wreck tossed a monkey wrench into the Coastal Division standings with an upset of Virginia Tech last weekend, and they become bowl eligible as a result. Now, they look to improve their bowl situation with a win over a team they are favored to beat by 10 1/2 as of Wednesday morning. The Cavaliers are 6-1-2 ATS in their past nine road games dating back to last season. More importantly, though, and more recently, they're 1-4 ATS in their past five conference battles, 1-4 ATS in their past five overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall mark. Something's gotta give, as the Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home and 3-11-1 ATS in their past 15 conference tilts while going 1-4 ATS in their past five aginst teams with a losing overall mark. The favorite is 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings in this series, the home team is 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 battles and the Cavs are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 trips to Bobby Dodd Stadium in the ATL.

Miami-Florida at North Carolina State

The Hurricanes look to continue their rebound, taking on a Jekyll and Hyde N.C. State team in Raleigh. The Hurricanes started out 4-0 SU/ATS, went 0-4 SU/ATS in their next four, and now they have won and covered their past two. That includes an impressive 51-28 win against Pittsburgh, the team that knocked Clemson from the ranks of the unbeaten last week. Miami has the tools to be a very dangerous team on any given week, but consistency has been key, and complacency when things do not go their way. N.C. State is just one win away from bowl eligibility after a win at Syracuse last weekend, stopping a three-game losing streak which included a loss to a bad Boston College team. Yet, this is also a Wolfpack team which just missed at Clemson, and was sunk late by Florida State two weeks ago. N.C. State can also play with most teams in the nation on any day, but they can be awfully bad some weeks, too. The Wolfpack enter 5-1 ATS in their past six at home, while the 'under' is 5-1 over their past six games.

Connecticut at Boston College

Believe it or not, Boston College can still become bowl eligible, and they're favored by a touchdown this weekend in their quest for a fifth victory. UConn has already waved bye-bye to bowl eligibility and all of the vital extra practices that come with that postseason game. Connecticut has been terrible in their past 27 non-conference games, going 6-18-3 ATS, and they're 6-17-3 AST in their past 26 against teams with a losing record and 6-19-1 ATS in their past 26 on the road. The Huskies are also 4-17 ATS in their past 21 on fieldturf. B.C. has covered just one of their past five overall, and they're 1-8-2 ATS in their past 11 at home. However, they are an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in their past six non-conference battles.

Duke at Pittsburgh

Duke picked up a huge win last week against North Carolina, securing the Victory Bell trophy from their rivals from Chapel Hill. Duke still has a lot of work to do if they want to become bowl eligible, and they face a big hurdle in Pittsburgh against a Panthers team which upended Clemson last week. Duke heads into this game 4-0 ATS in their past four ACC games, and 5-0 ATS in their past five overall. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five away from Wallace Wade Stadium. Meanwhile, Pitt, an eight-point favorite, is just 5-16 ATS in their past 21 at home and 0-5 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. Pitt steamrolled Duke 31-13 in Durham last season, lost a 51-48 2 OT thriller in the Steel City in 2014 and lost 58-55 at home Sept. 21, 2013. These teams are very familiar with each other, but Pitt is trending a bit more upward this season

Florida State at Syracuse

Florida State heads to the Carrier Dome looking for their eighth victory of the season. The Seminoles have bounced back with two wins at N.C. State and at home against Boston College after their narrow loss to Clemson Oct. 29. They'll get the best from the Orange, who need to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. Syracuse is 4-0 ATS in their past four at home against teams with a winning road record. Florida State is 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight road outings against a team with a losing home record, however, and 5-1 ATS in their past six games in the month of November.

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame

The Hokies step out of conference after a frustrating and costly loss to Georgia Tech last weekend. Meanwhile, Notre Dame got well by humping up on Army in San Antonio last weekend by a 44-6 count. The Irish kept their slim bowl hopes alive with the win. The Irish have shown flashes of brilliance on offense this season, posting 27 or more points in each of their past three, and eight of their 10 games this season. However, they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven non-conference games. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games against a team with a winning road record, though. Va. Tech is a dismal 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings, 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts and 0-7 ATS in their past seven on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Irish are favored by just one point as of Wednesday morning. They are just 1-3 SU in their past four games in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus, and 1-3 ATS in those four true home games.

The Citadel at North Carolina

North Carolina steps out of conference, and out of FBS, to take on a good team from The Citadel which is 10-0 overall and 8-0 in the Southern Conference. The Bulldogs have run the football well this season, and that is one area the Tar Heels have had difficulty this season. UNC struggled defensively against James Madison, another run-heavy FCS team, earlier in the season. While UNC is not expected to lose, they might struggle to cover a big number, too. There is no line on the game currently, but check back Saturday AM.

Clemson at Wake Forest

Clemson suffered its first loss of the season last weekend, losing 43-42 to unranked Pittsburgh in Death Valley. But as luck has it, Michigan and Washington also suffered setbacks, and the loss wasn't as costly to the Tigers. Clemson is still ranked No. 4 in the CFP, but cannot afford any additional slip ups. Wake Forest has been one of the biggest surprises in the ACC, already bowl eligible at 6-4. They are more than a three-touchdown underdog at home despite the fact Clemson is a dismal 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight trips to Winston-Salem. The 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at Wake, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.

Big 12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Kansas State at Baylor

K-State heads down to Baylor looking for that all-important sixth victory and bowl eligibility, and they'll face a team which just lost its starting quarterback. QB Seth Russell suffered a gruesome left ankle fracture which required season-ending surgery, so true freshman Zach Smith will take the reins of the offense. The Bears are a 2 1/2-point underdog as of Wednesday morning, and Smith is a bit of an unknown entering the game. He misfired on nine of his 15 attempts last week, but posted 144 yards and a touchdown, too. K-State is 1-4 ATS in their past five road games and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning overall record. While Baylor is 29-12 ATS in their past 41 home games, they have covered just once in the past five league games with Russell, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six and the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall.

Oklahoma State at Texas Christian

TCU hosts OK State looking to become bowl eligible in mid-November. In recent seasons, TCU has not only been eligible for a bowl by now, they have been in the playoff conversation. OK State already has eight victories, and they're looking to improve their bowl possibility. They enter as a four-point underdog as of Wednesday morning. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall record, while the Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their past six league games and 0-5 ATS in their past five in Fort Worth.

Texas Tech at Iowa State

Texas Tech looks to keep its bowl hopes alive in Ames, and it won't be easy despite Iowa State's 2-8 overall record. The Cyclones have been a tough out this season, even for good teams, going 4-0 ATS in their past four home games and 6-2 ATS in their past eight overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven Big 12 outings. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall record, 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 league games. In this series the road team has covered four of the past five. The Red Raiders enter the week as a field goal favorite, and that line is holding steady as of Wednesday morning.

Texas at Kansas

The Longhorns look for bowl eligibility, and they find it in Lawrence. Texas is up to a 23 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Longhorns have had difficult on the road in recent seasons, going 3-7 ATS in their past 10 away from Austin. The Jayhawks are winless against FBS teams this season, and they're just 7-17 ATS in their past 24 overall, 5-13 ATS in their past 18 league games and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 against Texas. The 'under' has cashed in each of the past four meetings in Lawrence, and four of the past five meetings overall in this series. The under is also 23-9 in the past 32 league games for Texas.

Oklahoma at West Virginia

Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown will be rocking Saturday night when Oklahoma pays a visit in what is shaping up as a de facto conference championship game. Oklahoma enters the game with two losses and no hopes of the four-team playoff, but they are unbeaten inside the Big 12. The road hasn't been kida to Oklahoma, however, at least in terms of ATS. They have covered just one of their past five on the road. The Mountaineers are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 against teams with a winning overall record, though, and 6-20 ATS in their past 26 at home against teams with a winning road mark.While trends lately point to the under, the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series. The under is an impressive 13-4 in the past 17 at home for West Virginia, and 19-7 in their past 26 conference tilts. The over is 13-6-1 in Oklahoma's past 20 road outings, but 4-1 in their past five overall and 4-1 in their past five league outings.

Pac-12 Report - Week 12
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Oregon at Utah

Oregon is no longer eligible for a bowl, but they still remain a danger for Utah, especially due to their high-octane offense. Oregon has rolled up 32 or more points in seven of the past eight games. Their problem hasn't been on offense, but it's their inability to stop people on defense. Oregon has allowed 35 or more points in eight of their 10 outings, and they're just 1-8-1 ATS overall. For Utah, they have covered three in a row, and six of their past eight. They emasculated Oregon last season 62-20 in Eugene, and they're hoping to do the same this season. Utah is a 12-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The 'over' cashed in that game for Utah, and the over is 3-0 in their past three and the over is 6-2 in their past eight outings while going 9-1 in Oregon's past 10 league games and 6-1 in their past seven overall.

Washington State at Colorado

Thanks to Washington's loss last week against USC, the Washington State Cougars ascended to the top of the North Division standings. The Cougars still have the Huskies on the schedule in the Apple Cup, their annual rivalry, but they certainly cannot look past the 10th-ranked Buffaloes in Boulder this weekend. Colorado is a 4-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Buffaloes are an impressive 9-1 ATS in 10 games this season. Washington State is 9-1 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning overall record, and 15-5 ATS in 20 games overall dating back to last season. They're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 away from the Palouse. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six battles.

Stanford at California

It's time for the 118th installment of the 'Big Game', and everyone remembers in 1982 when the Stanford band came on the field during 'The Play'. That won't be a problem in Berkeley this season, as the Stanford band has had a travel ban all season and they are not allowed to travel across the bay for this rivalry game. Stanford's offense will be there, however, and they got well last week at Oregon in a 52-27 victory. After struggling through mid-October, the Cardinal have come alive over the past three games averaging 37.3 points per game (PPG). The 'over' for Stanford last week was their first since Oct. 8, a span of five games. Cal is on a three-game slide and they need to win this week and never week against UCLA to qualify for a bowl game. Cal is 1-4 ATS in their past five games, but they are 3-1 ATS in four home games.

Arizona State at Washington

The Huskies look to bounce back after last weekend's setback against USC, and Washington is expected to recover since they're installed as 26 1/2-point favorites as of Wednesday morning. AZ State is on quite the slide, opening the season 5-1 SU, but they have dropped four in a row and need a win this week or next week at rival Arizona to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 1-3 ATS in their past four games, and 0-4 ATS in four road games this season. Washington is also 1-3 ATS in their past four games overall, and last weekend's loss was the first 'under' after a run of six straight 'over' results. The over is 8-2 in 10 games overall for U-Dub. The over has cashed in three in a row for the Sun Devils, thanks mostly to their flagging defense which has allowed an average of 46.7 PPG in the past three outings.

Southern California at UCLA

Years ago the battle of Los Angeles used to be a highly anticipated rivalry game on the national level. Whether it is USC or UCLA not playing at a top level, this game has taken a backseat to some of the other rivalries on the college football schedule. But this is a very heated game on the gridiron, regardless of records, as all of these kids have a deep knowledge of each other from playing against each other, sometimes growing up together, etc. It sounds rather cliche', but you really do need to toss out the record in games like this. Clay Helton lead the Trojans to a giant road win at Washington last weekend, shaking up the CFP, and they are installed as a 10 1/2-point favorite for this one. USC is 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight on the road. Of course, last weekend's game was in Seattle, so that trend proved meaningless. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to the Rose Bowl. Can they prove that trend meaningless, too?

Arizona at Oregon State

Two cellar-dwelling 2-8 clubs take the field at Reser Stadium in Corvallis Saturday night. While Arizona has been in the tank, Oregon State has actually been pretty competitive and a strong play at the betting window. Arizona heads into this game 3-13 ATS in their past 16 dating back to last season, 0-6 ATS in their past six conference games and 0-6 ATS in their past six road games. Oregon State is 4-0 ATS in their past four at home, 5-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts and 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. The 'over' has been the overwhelming trend for both sides lately, going 5-1 in Arizona's past six road games and 7-2 in their past nine conference battles. The over is 7-3 in Oregon State's past 10 league outings and 5-2 in their past seven aganst teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Corvallis, and 4-1 in the past five in this series. The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Corvallis while the Wildcats are just 3-12 ATS in the past 15 meetings overall.

Big Ten Report - Week 12
By ASAWins.com

Ohio State (-21.5) at Michigan State

Michigan State – Who would have guessed that MSU would pick up their FIRST Big Ten win on November 12th? Not us. Sparty moved to 1-6 in Big Ten play with a 49-0 whitewashing of Rutgers. The Spartan defense looks like they might be kicking it up a notch at the end of the season. We’ve grown accustomed to good defense when discussing the Green & White and last week they held Rutgers scoreless on just 149 total yards. A week earlier they stopped Illinois for 305 yards but MSU lost that. Those two games are a huge improvement after they gave up an average of 425 YPG over their first five Big Ten games.

The Scarlet Knights had 13 offensive possessions in the game and 12 of those went for 18 yards or less. They allowed Rutgers to cross midfield only twice the entire game. Star DL McDowell was injured and sat out the game forcing head coach Mark Dantonio to start two freshman defensive lineman for the first time in their careers. Offensively much maligned senior QB Tyler O’Connor had only 10 completions but 3 of those were for TD’s all in the first half. He didn’t need to complete many passes as the Spartans dominated the ground game with 277 yards, their season high, on 50 carries.

Ohio State – The Buckeyes won their second consecutive game by the exact same score of 62-3. Two weeks ago they whipped Nebraska by that margin and last Saturday Maryland was on the receiving end. After going 3 straight games without reaching 30 points in regulation (Wisconsin, Penn State, & Northwestern) they have exploded for 124 points in the last two games on almost 1,100 total yards. Over that two game span OSU is +47 in first downs (what?) and +791 in total yardage. Dominating to say the least. QB J.T. Barrett has been fantastic in the last two games completing 44 of his 65 pass attempts for 543 yards and 6 TD’s (no interceptions).

Last year in a home loss to Michigan State, Barrett had one of the worst games in his career completing just 9 passes for only 46 yards. The Buckeyes were held to just 132 total yards in last year’s 17-14 loss. Interestingly, Ohio State was a 14.5 point favorite at home last year and now they are -21.5 on the road this season. Despite the disparity in the two teams records, the Buckeyes will be motivated here due to last year’s results. We’ve been told many of the OSU players have been waiting patiently for this rematch.

Last Year - Michigan State (+14.5) upset the Buckeyes on the road last year 17-14 with backup QB Tyler O’Connor at the helm. That won catapulted MSU to the Big Ten Championship and eventually College Football’s Final 4.

Inside the Numbers - The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this Big Ten series. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7. The dog has also claimed outright wins in each of the last 5 meetings in this match up. This is just the third time that MSU has been a home dog of more than 20 points since the 1980 season. They are 2-0 ATS in that spot including a cover in a 9-point loss at home vs Michigan this season as a 24 point underdog.

Iowa (-10) at Illinois

Illinois – The Illini should get a boost offensively this week with starting QB Wes Lunt ready to go. His last start was back on October 8th at Purdue. Lunt was injured in the 2nd quarter of that game and was inserted in the 2nd half last week for his first game action in over 30 days. He came in for Jeff George Jr who continues to struggle. George threw 4 interceptions in the first half last week at Wisconsin, a 48-3 loss. He led Illinois on 7 offensive possessions in the first half turning the ball over in 4 of them. He ended the game with one more completion (5) than interception (4).

Lunt took over in the 2nd half and while he didn’t really do anything (2 for 8 passing) he did get some reps which should help prepare him for this week. He didn’t have a chance to do much as Illinois ran only 15 plays in the entire 2nd half. That’s because Wisconsin dominated the ball rushing for 363 yards on 64 attempts and held a 42:00 to 18:00 time of possession edge. It was the second straight game the Illini defense was on the field for more than 40:00 minutes and they were gassed late in the Wisconsin game. That definitely should have a negative effect this week if Iowa is able to control the ground game.

Iowa – In what has been a very disappointing year for Iowa, the Hawkeyes were able to create a highlight moment last week in a season devoid of them. They were just 1-3 at home coming into last week’s game facing a Michigan team that was undefeated and favored by 20+ points. The last time Iowa was a home underdog of that magnitude was back in 1999. They pulled the upset kicking a field goal as time expired to win 14-13 moving them to 6-4 which makes them bowl eligible. It was their third straight win over Michigan in Iowa City. The defense was the big surprise. We knew they would struggle on offense against a great Wolverine defense. Iowa had just 230 yards of total offense and after kicking a FG on the opening drive of the 2nd half, never crossed midfield again until 1:16 remaining in the game.

The Iowa defense was the big surprise. After allowing 600 yards and 41 points a week earlier at PSU, the Hawkeye defense stifled a very good Michigan offense holding them to 13 points and just 201 total yards. Coming into the game they had allowed each of their previous three opponents to reach at least 423 yards with two of them topping 500. It was impossible to foresee this defense slowing down a Michigan offense that was averaging 521 YPG in conference play. Now they have to avoid the proverbial “letdown” traveling to Illinois coming off their big Michigan win with a home finale vs Nebraska on deck.

Last Year - Iowa topped Illinois 29-20 at home last season. They failed to cover the 10.5 point spread however. They Hawkeyes are favored by basically the same number at Illinois this season.

Inside the Numbers - Iowa has won 10 of the last 13 in this series. This is just the third time since 1980 that Iowa has been a double digit favorite at Illinois (1-2 ATS). This has been a low scoring series as of late. Since 2000 these two have met 9 times and the average combined score in those game has been 39 points with the highest output during that stretch being 51.

Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5)

Nebraska – The Huskers bounced back with a nice 24-17 win over Minnesota after back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. QB Tommy Armstrong didn’t practice the entire week and finally cleared concussion protocol on the morning of the game so he was able to start and played well with 217 yards passing, 61 yards rushing, and 3 TD’s. With the game tied at 17 in the 4th quarter, Armstrong led Nebraska on a 91 yard go-ahead TD drive to put them up 7. With Minnesota driving late for a potential tying TD, the Nebraska defense made a key interception inside the 5-yard line for the game clincher. The defense played very well shutting down Minnesota’s running game to just 2.5 YPC on 34 attempts. After scoring 17 in the opening 30 minutes, the Husker defense held Minnesota scoreless in the 2nd half and held the Gophers to under 100 yards after the break.

Back to Armstrong…Different week, different ailing body parts for Armstrong who is again questionable this week after injuring his hamstring AND ankle in last week’s game. Word is he was limping very badly early in the week and back up QB Ryker Fyfe is getting the first team snaps. However, it’s Senior Day and Armstrong’s last home game so if he can find a way to play on Saturday he will. If Nebraska wins out and Wisconsin loses one of their final two games, the Huskers will be in the Big 10 Championship game so still a lot for them to play for.

Maryland – What once looked like a promising season for Maryland and new head coach DJ Durkin has gone south in a hurry. Coming into Big Ten play, the Terps were only three wins away from bowl eligibility and the way they were playing that looked like a lock. After last week’s embarrassing home performance vs Ohio State, a 62-3 loss, Maryland needs to win one of their final two games to get to six wins. The Terps are coming of back to back huge losses to Michigan & Ohio State in which they were outscored by a combined 121-6 and outgained by a combined 697 yards! They got behind quickly in each of those games trailing Michigan 35-0 at half and Ohio State 45-3 at the break.

In those two losses, the Terp defense allowed Michigan & Ohio State to score TD’s on 11 of their 14 combined first half drives. Maryland heads into this Saturday’s game at Nebraska as a bruised and battered squad. Durkin suspended three players just before kickoff last week due to a violation of the athlete code of conduct. That included RB Lorenzo Harrison who had rushed for over 600 yards on the season. Then QB Perry Hills was injured (shoulder) on the 2nd series of the game and didn’t return. It was the fourth time this season Hills has been knocked out of a game due to injury. He may not play this week. Durkin will see what his team is made of as they try and rebound from their two worst losses they’ve ever had in Big Ten play coming in back to back weeks.

Last Year - These two have not met since Maryland joined the Big Ten a few years ago.

Inside the Numbers - The Terps have covered 8 straight games following a loss at home by 10 poitns or more. Maryland is 0-3 ATS their last 3 games. The last time the Terps failed to cover four games in a row was back in 2011. Nebraska has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 home finales.

Wisconsin (-27.5) at Purdue

Purdue – The Boilers officially eliminated themselves from bowl contention last Saturday with a 45-17 loss at home to Northwestern. That dropped Purdue to 3-7 on the year. PU jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead at home last week but then were outscored 45-7 the rest of the way. It continued a Purdue trend which we brought up in last week’s edition. They continue to play teams tight in the 1st half only to be demolished in the 2nd half. They trailed NW just 14-10 at half last week. In the last four games, Purdue has outscored their opponents 69-64 in the 1st half and they’ve gone on to lose the 2nd half of those four games by a combined score of 109-17!

The defense continues to be absolutely shredded on a weekly basis. They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games only) in total defense allowing 500 YPG and in scoring defense giving up 44 PPG. They have allowed at least 30 points in every Big Ten game except one and they’ve given up at least 44 points in 5 of their 7 conference tilts. The Boilers played last week without their two best defenders – Jake Repogle and Ja’Whaun Bentley – and they may not be ready again this week. It was Purdue’s 15th consecutive loss in the month of November.

Wisconsin – We keep waiting for this Wisconsin team to have a “letdown” type game and they just continue to play well. Last Saturday was a perfect scenario for potential flat game for the Badgers as they were hosting an overmatched Illinois team after playing a brutal stretch of games vs Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern. All the Badgers did was come out and dominate 48-3 rushing for 363 yards while holding the Illini to 201 total yards. They were averaging just 18 PPG over their previous five games, albeit vs much better defenses, before busting out for almost 50 points last week.

Head coach Paul Chryst continued his “musical QB’s” playing both Hornibrook and Houston for the 5th straight game although it really didn’t matter who lined up under center in this one. The QB’s combined to attempt just 13 passes but handed the ball off 64 times. After keeping Illinois out of the endzone the Badgers have given up just 8 TD’s in their 7 Big Ten games. If you take out their games vs Michigan and Ohio State they have allowed only 3 TD’s vs their other five conference opponents.

Last Year - Wisconsin beat Purdue last year 24-7 in Madison. The Badgers had 418 total yards to just 191 for the Boilermakers.

Inside the Numbers - Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 10 straight times (9-1 ATS in those games). This spread sits at Wisky -27.5 which is the highest number in any of the last 10 years. The closest margin of victory for Wisconsin vs Purdue over the last 8 years was last year when the Badgers won by “just” 17. Purdue has won only 3 of their last 24 Big Ten home games.

Indiana at Michigan (-23.5)

Michigan – This line opened in the range of -26 all the way up to -28 at some spots. It dropped to -23.5 at most spots after the announcement that Michigan QB Wilton Speight would most likely be out for at least the remainder of the regular season due to a collarbone injury. Next in line for the Wolverines looks to be junior John O’Korn who transferred from Houston after losing his starting job to Greg Ward. He has appeared in eight games and gone 13 of 18 for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns as the team's primary backup quarterback.

As you are now well aware, Michigan was beaten at Iowa 14-13 last week as a 20 point favorite. A struggling Hawkeye defense held the Wolverines a full 319 yards below their season average! Michigan came into the game thinking they could run all over an Iowa defense that allowed 359 yards on the ground a week earlier at PSU. That wasn’t the case last Saturday as Michigan rushed for only 98 yards on just 2.8 YPC. The defense again played well enough to win holding Iowa to only 230 yards on 3.9 YPP. Even with the loss, Michigan came out at #3 in this week’s College FB poll which pretty much indicates if they win out, including the Big Ten Championship game, they are basically a shoe in for the College Football Playoff.

Indiana – Indiana is still battling to get to that 6th win for bowl eligibility and they have to win one of their last two games to do it. Last week they lost at home to a red hot Penn State team 45-31. It was a disastrous start for IU who punted on their first two possessions and then fumbled on three of their next four. Even with that the game was tied at 14 at halftime. It could be argued that IU actually outplayed Penn State as the Hoosiers had more yards, more first downs, and were better on 3rd down (8 of 17). Two keys to the loss were Indiana’s 5 turnovers and the fact their defense allowed a number of big plays - nine plays of 20+ yards.

Not only did those turnovers were lead to PSU points (14 points off turnovers) but the ones that didn’t came in Lion territory which prevented IU from potentially putting a bigger number on the board. The Hoosiers turned the ball over on the Penn State 24, 39, and 50 yard lines and were shut out on downs at the Nittany Lion 1 yard line. Defensively they held Penn State to just 77 yards rushing on 45 attempts (only 1.7 YPC). That was very impressive vs an offense the rolled up 257 & 359 yards rushing their previous two games. Michigan struggled to get any running game going last week which might be a glimmer of hope for this Indiana team.

Last Year - Last year we saw a lot of offense in this match up. Michigan won at Indiana in OT by a final score of 48-41. Both teams topped 500 yards of total offense.

Inside the Numbers - This series has been about as one sided as they come. Since 1980, Michigan is 27-1 SU in this series (17-11 ATS). Indiana has been an underdog in EVERY ONE of those 28 match ups, including going off as a double digit dog in 22 of those games. The Wolverines are 14-6 ATS (70%) coming off a SU loss dating back to the 2011 season.

Northwestern (-1) at Minnesota

Minnesota – After a 24-17 loss at Nebraska last Saturday, the Gophers no longer control their own destiny in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin is now the only team that holds that distinction. The Minnesota offense struggled in the loss tallying only 265 total yards. They jumped out of the gate with 17 first half points but kept off the scoreboard after the break. The Gophs are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and 7-3 overall. A close look at their overall results reveals they don’t have an impressive win but also don’t have a bad loss. Their four conference wins have come against Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Illinois who have a combined 5-23 Big Ten record. If you throw out their win against FCS Indiana State, their other two wins came against Colorado State & Oregon State, both one possession games at home.

The fact is, they haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record and if you throw in their wins over OSU & CSU, the seven teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 12-36. It also has to be said that their losses have all been very close with margins of 3 (vs PSU), 7 (vs Iowa), and 7 (vs Nebraska). While their wins aren’t impressive, the Gophers aren’t that far from being unbeaten. This will be Minnesota’s final home game before traveling to Wisconsin the last week of the regular season.

Northwestern – The Cats were in a battle at halftime last week at Purdue leading just 14-10. Going into halftime last week, Northwestern has only scored 21 points over their last 6 quarters combined. They broke out in a big way after halftime against a terrible Purdue defense tallying 31 points in the final 30 minutes. The Wildcat offense scored TD’s on their first four possessions of the 2nd half, kicked a FG on their fifth possessions, and were stopped on downs at the Purdue 1 yard line on their 6th and final possession of after the break. QB Clayton Thorson continued his big season throwing for a career high 352 yards vs the Boilers. This week he faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed more TD passes than any other team in the Big Ten (20) and currently ranks 12th in the league (all games included) allowing 231 YPG passing. Last Saturday’s win moved NW to within one game of bowl eligibility with a 5-5 record. That goal didn’t seem very reasonable early in the season when they lost 3 of their first 4 games including home setbacks to Illinois State and Western Michigan. After traveling to Minnesota this weekend the Cats host Illinois next week to close out the regular season.

Last Year - Northwestern (-4.5) pitched a 27-0 shutout at home last year holding Minnesota to only 173 total yards.

Inside the Numbers - Minnesota is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games following an outright loss. Northwestern was a road favorite last week at Purdue and covered easily. That means since 1980 the Cats are 25-8 SU as a road favorite (20-13 ATS). Throw out their game vs FCS Indiana State and the Gophs are 0-5 ATS at home this year failing to cover those games by a combined 42 points or 8 PPG.

Penn State (-28 ) at Rutgers

Rutgers – Just when it looked like Rutgers might be “sort of” turning the corner, they were destroyed at Michigan State 49-0. The Knights had played two tight games vs Indiana and Minnesota the previous two weeks before the Spartans crushed them to pick up their first Big Ten win. An offense that looked like it was at least getting close to respectable under new starting QB Rescigno was simply terrible last week. Rescigno completed only 6 passes the entire game and the running game was held to just 3 YPC. Rutgers was forced to punt on 9 of their 13 offensive possessions, 2 ended in turnovers, and the other 2 the Knights had the ball as time ran out in the first half and at the end of the game.

They have now lost seven consecutive games and the offense during that stretch has been shutout three times and scored just 7 points twice. The defense hasn’t been much better allowing at least 33 points in 5 of those 7 including giving up 49 or more three times during that span. You can bet that the Rutgers defense, which ranks 124th nationally vs the run, will get a heavy dose of the PSU ground game here after the Nits rushed for only 77 yards last week at Indiana.

Penn State – Well it’s now official, win their final two games vs Rutgers and Michigan State and the Nittany Lions will win at least a share of the Big Ten East title. They will go to the Big Ten Championship game if they win out and Michigan loses at Ohio State to close out the regular season. Michigan made this all possible by losing at Iowa last Saturday. The Penn State offense is on a ridiculous roll right now. If you subtract their game vs Michigan in which they scored just 10 points, Penn State is averaging 40 PPG in their other six Big Ten games. Over the last three games alone they have put up 148 points. The offense has been extremely efficient scoring points on 23 of their last 36 offensive possessions minus drives that ended in a turnover. They’ve now won six games in a row and scored 30 TD’s during that stretch! Fifteen different players have scored TD’s this year for PSU. Now facing a Rutgers defense that has allowed 33 or more points in 5 of the last 6 games, we can expect another big showing from the Penn State offense.

Last Year - Penn State has won both games in this series since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. Two years ago it was a tight 13-10 win on the road and last year an easy 28-3 win in Happy Valley.

Inside the Numbers - PSU has now covered 5 consecutive games covering 4 of those 5 games by at least 20 points! These two teams have met 16 times since 1982 and Penn State has won 15 of those games. All but 3 of those 15 wins came by at least 10 points.

NCAAF Week 12

Miami scored 85 points in winning its last two games after a 4-game skid; Hurricanes are 3-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 35-14-20 points- they lost at Va Tech, Notre Dame. Average total in Miami’s road games: 53.8. NC State lost four of last five games, is 5-5 despite being an underdog in only three games- they need one more win to go bowling. Wolfpack is 0-4 this season in games decided by 7 or less points- they’re 3-2 at home, losing to BC by 7 (horrible loss), Florida State by 4. ACC home underdogs are 8-9 vs spread in league play.

Northwestern won six of last nine games with Minnesota, with average total in last four 32.3; Wildcats won three of last four visits to Twin Cities. Northwestern needs one more win to go to a bowl; they’re 3-1 on road with wins at Iowa/Michigan State- they covered five of last six games. Minnesota had 4-game win streak snapped at Nebraska LW; Gophers are 4-1 at home, with only loss 14-7 to Iowa. Northwestern is 5-0 when it scores more than 21 points, 0-5 when it scores less; 7 of 10 Minnesota opponents scored more than 21. Big 14 home teams are 21-26 vs spread in league play this year.

Pitt pulled huge upset at Clemson LW, is now bowl eligible, despite giving up 38.4 pts/game vs I-A opponents; Panthers are 3-1 at home, 0-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-3 points and a 39-36 loss to Va Tech. Road team won all three Duke-Pitt games, with underdog covering all three, two of which were 51-48/58-55 shootouts. Duke covered its last five games; its last three games were decided by total of 7 points. Blue Devils are 1-3 on road but 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-10-3 points- they won SU at Notre Dame. ACC home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.

Oklahoma won its last four games with West Virginia, winning 50-49/45-33 in last two visits to Morgantown. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in series. Sooners won their last seven games after a 1-2 start; they’re 3-0 in true road games, 1-2 as a road favorite, with wins on road by 6-7-10 points- they also split pair of neutral field games in Texas. West Virginia won 24-20 at Texas LW in their first game this year as an underdog; WV is 4-0 SU at home this year, 4-4 as home dogs over last decade. Mountaineers held 7 of 9 opponents this season to 21 or less points. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

San Diego State won three of last four games with Wyoming, winning 42-38/48-38 in last two visits here. UNLV ran for 401 yards in 69-66 win over Wyoming LW; if Rebels can do that, Aztecs should do more- they ran for 400-474 yards in last two road games, wins at Utah State/Nevada- they ran for 293-400-292 yards in last three games vs Wyoming. San Diego State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) since mystifying loss at South Alabama; Aztecs allowed 42 points in six Mountain West games (7.0 pts/game). Wyoming scored 37.6 pts/game in its last seven games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this season.

Virginia Tech is 7-3 but allowed 536 YR in last two games, getting upset at Ga Tech LW when Tech’s option attack ran for 309 yards. Hokies are 3-1 in true road games, winning 39-36/24-21 in last two, at Pitt/Duke. Notre Dame is 4-6; its last two games were against service academies. Irish are 2-3 at home this year, losing to Duke-Michigan St-Stanford, all of whom are having sub-par years- their home wins are over Nevada/Miami. Irish have not won consecutive games this year; they allowed 549 RY to Navy/Army. ACC road teams are 10-6 vs spread this season in non-conference games.

Baylor lost its last three games after a 6-0 start, allowing 47.3 pts/game; they lost QB Russell to a broken ankle LW. Bears are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games- they allowed 711 rushing yards in last two games. Kansas State has 826 RY in its last three games; Wildcats are 1-3 on road, with only win 31-26 at Iowa State- they’re 5-3 in last eight games as a road favorite. Baylor won its last four games with Kansas State; they covered three of last four tries as an underdog in this series. K-State lost its last four visits to Waco. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

Underdogs covered four of last five Colorado-Washington State games, two programs on rise- this is possible preview of Pac-12 title game. Wazzu won its last eight games, after an 0-2 start that included a loss to a I-AA team; Coogs scored 38 pts/game in winning last three road games, last two by 3-32/35-31 scores at ASU/Oregon State. Colorado is 8-2 this year, 9-1 vs spread; they won by 10 in only non-cover. Buffs are 2-1 as home favorites this year, with wins in Boulder by 41-24-10 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 15-12 vs spread in conference play this season. Washington State is 14-4 in its last 18 games as a road underdog.

Stanford won its last six games with arch-rival Cal (5-1 vs spread) wth last four wins all by 13+ points. Cardinal won last three visits to Berkeley, by 21-18-34 points. Stanford won its last three games after a 1-3 midseason slump, running ball for 294.7 yds/game; they’re 4-1 on road this year, with wins by 9-7-24-25 points. Cardinal is 3-0 as a road favorite this year, 16-9 under Shaw. Cal lost its last three games, allowing 45-66-56 points; they’re 3-1 at home this year, with average total of 84.8. Golden Bears are 0-4-1 vs spread this year in games with a double digit spread. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Favorites covered seven of last nine Tulsa-Central Florida games, with Tulsa winning five of last six; Golden Hurricane lost three of last four visits to Orlando. Tulsa is 7-3 after losing 42-40 at Navy LW; they’re 2-3 on road, with wins at Fresno (48-41 after trailing 31-0), Memphis (59-30). Average total in their five road games: 75.8. UCF is 6-4 and bowl eligible after being 0-12 LY; Knights are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning 37-6/24-3 last two weeks. UCF is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread; Tulsa is 3-1. AAC home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread this season.

UCLA won three of last four games with USC after a 1-12 series skid before that; last nine series games were all decided by 10+ points. Trojans lost 38-20/38-28 in last two visits here, but USC is on 6-game win streak after their 1-3 start, including big upset at Washington LW. Five of those six USC wins were by 13+ points; Trojans are 2-2 on road, losing at Stanford/Utah, with wins at Arizona/Washington. UCLA needs to wins to go bowling; they’ve lost 4 of last 5 games, are 2-2 vs spread as an underdog this year, 3-2 SU at home, with losses to Stanford/Utah. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Home side won all four Oklahoma State-TCU Big X meetings; Cowboys lost 42-9 in last visit here two years ago. Frogs gained 663-676 TY in last two series games; they’re 5-4, need one more win to go bowling. TCU lost last two home games, to Oklahoma/Texas Tech- they’re 0-4 vs I-A teams when allowing more than 23 points. OSU won its last six games, scoring 42.7 pts/game; they’re 2-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 SU on road, beating two Kansas schools, losing at Baylor. TCU ran for 431 yards in its last game, a 62-22 home win over Baylor. Big X home favorites are 9-10 vs spread this season.

LSU-Florida is rescheduled game after hurricane last month; game was originally scheduled to be in Gainesville. LSU won five of last six series games, taking last three by 7-3-11 points. Gators lost last three visits to Baton Rouge by 7-11-30 points. Florida is 7-2 but 1-2 in true road games, losing 38-28 at Tennessee, 31-10 at Arkansas- they won 13-6 at Vandy. LSU won four of last five games after a 2-2 start caused a coaching change. Tigers are 4-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite with home wins by 3-35-35-17 points- they covered four of last five games. SEC home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

Armadillosports.com

Best Bets - Week 12
By Sportsbook.ag

Switching back over to playing totals last week with my best bets paid off handsomely as Stanford/Oregon Over, and Illinois/Wisconsin Over cashed with ease.

That makes it three weeks in a row where I've swept the board with these CFB Best Bets and I hope to make it four straight this week.

Last week's games saw the college football playoff picture get shook up dramatically with #2,#3, and #4 all losing outright. The losses by Clemson and Michigan weren't significant enough to knock them out of the Top 4 in this week's rankings, but those programs will likely have to run the table during the rest of the regular season to maintain their spot.

Furthermore, I've mentioned in past weeks that college football teams that suffer their first loss after starting 4-0 or 5-0 SU or better tend to be great 'fades' the following week, so bettors should keep plays on Wake Forest (+22.5), Indiana (+24), and Arizona State (+27) in mind.

Those three schools are up against Clemson, Michigan, and Washington respectively and all three of those teams fit the profile of being bet against after suffering their first outright defeat.

Those three plays aren't part of my Best Bets feature this week but should definitely be considered this weekend as ones to add to your card.

Best Bet #1: Illinois (+10)

The Illini got smoked by Wisconsin last week as we cashed an 'over' ticket there, but they were never expected to really have a chance in that contest. This week is different though as they are back at home (where two of their three SU wins have come) hosting an Iowa team that finds itself in a huge letdown spot.

Iowa pulled off the massive upset by beating Michigan a week ago as 24-point underdogs and there is little chance they come into this week's game with the same focus, motivation, and energy after spending the week reading their press clippings about what they accomplished seven days ago.

That victory over the Wolverines also was the sixth win on the year for the Hawkeyes, accomplishing their goal of being Bowl eligible and there is little doubt they won't be going bowling with a huge win like that one on their resume.

But laying double digits on them in this spot this week is absurd and I wouldn't even be surprised to see Iowa fall victim to their own outright shocking upset either.

For as bad as Illinois looked last week, bettors can't forget about how good they looked two weeks ago in beating Michigan State 31-27. Illinois was in a similar spot that week as they are this one; getting about 10 points and coming off a blowout loss, so I expect the Illini to show up this week.

Best Bet #2: Florida/LSU Over 39

This is the makeup game between these two SEC teams that was cancelled earlier due to the hurricane. Florida was supposed to be the home team in that original contest and clearly switching over to being the visitors does them no favors.

Both of the Gators losses this year have come away from home and as +14.5 underdogs this week, oddsmakers believe they'll add a third one to their record this week. However, this game features a few similarities to that Illinois/Wisconsin game last week when we had the total below 40 points and we could see more points then expected here.

For one, other than the 10-0 loss vs. Alabama, LSU's offense has really opened things up and thrived under interim HC Ed Orgeron. Since the beginning of October, LSU has scored 42, 45, 38, 0, and 38 points in five games. Throw out that gooseegg vs. #1 Alabama and you'll see that things have really started to click offensively for LSU.

Now, the Gators defense is more comparable to 'Bama's then the other opponents on that list, but the Gators have allowed 30+ in two of their last four road games (their two SU defeats) and with this game projected to be another Florida loss, there's a good chance LSU threatens that 30+ point total themselves.

Neither team has been a great 'over' bet all year with a combined 4-12-2 O/U record between the two of them, but like the Illinois/Wisconsin game a week ago, the points put up in this game should surprise many and there is no question that the Gators offense will carry their weight in that regard, unlike the Illini did last week.

Traps to Watch - Week 12
By BetOnline.ag

The final full weekend of college football is next weekend and it's the biggest rivalry Saturday of the season. This year there are College Football Playoff relevant games between Washington-Washington State and Michigan-Ohio State, to name two.

The Iron Bowl could be important only if Auburn were to stage a huge upset of No. 1 Alabama, the heavy -150 national championship favorite in college football betting at BetOnline. The Tide are the only Power 5 unbeaten team left.

Because so many powerhouse teams are playing relative cupcakes this Saturday and could have a potential eye on next week's regular-season finale, Week 12 is often a big trap/look-ahead weekend for the overwhelming favorites. Here are some to be wary of with the BetOnline spreads and Associated Press rankings.

No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State (+21.5): The Spartans are the country's biggest disappointments this year after reaching last year's College Football Playoff as they have just one Big Ten win in their worst season under Coach Mark Dantonio. Perhaps the Buckeyes won't overlook Sparty because MSU pulled off a 17-14 upset in Columbus last year to ruin Ohio State's chances of repeating as the national champions. But you can't tell me the OSU players won't be more focused on Ann Arbor.

Indiana at No. 4 Michigan (-22.5): Speaking of Ann Arbor, it's the home finale for Michigan, which will play without starting quarterback Wilton Speight after he injured his collarbone in last week's shocking loss in Iowa. But the Wolverines still control their Big Ten title and playoff destiny with, assuming they take care of business here, a win in Columbus next week.

No. 17 Florida State at Syracuse (+21): It has been a disappointing season for the Seminoles, a preseason Top-5 club and popular pick to make the national semifinals. Beating Syracuse on Saturday isn't going to change anything. But you know FSU would love to spank potential SEC East Division champion and blood-rival Florida next week just as happened in last year's game. Doubtful Syracuse gets full attention here.

Chattanooga at No. 1 Alabama (-49.5): The penultimate Saturday of the SEC regular season is always terrible because most of these programs are beating up on FCS programs. Why would Alabama even play its starters more than a quarter or two ahead of next week's game vs. Auburn? The Tide often fail to cover these games. You could put Auburn's game vs. Alabama A&M on Saturday on this list as well. Ditto South Carolina's game vs. Western Carolina as the Gamecocks have a chance to ruin rival Clemson's season next week.

Arizona State at No. 7 Washington (-27): ASU would get bowl eligible with an upset here, but it's all about the Huskies. What will they have left in the tank in seeing their College Football Playoff hopes take a big hit in last week's one-sided home loss to Southern Cal? Plus the Huskies visit Washington State in the Apple Cup next week, with the winner claiming the Pac-12 North Division.

Buffalo at No. 14 Western Michigan (-34): The Mid-American Conference's Broncos are the nation's other unbeaten team and they have a direct path to playing in a New Year's Six bowl game for the first time in school history as long as they win out. This sets up in a myriad of ways as a trap game for WMU. First, Buffalo stinks and the Broncos host a very good Toledo team next week for the right to play in the MAC title game. Second, ESPN GameDay is in Kalamazoo this weekend. That's a huge deal for a program like Western Michigan. It's a shame that WMU won't be able to keep Coach P.J. Fleck as he'll be in high demand by bigger programs this offseason.

Florida at LSU
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Florida (7-2 straight up, 3-5-1 against the spread) can lock up a second straight SEC East title with a victory on Saturday, but that task at Tiger Stadium will be a tall one with six starters out with injuries. The Gators are set to face LSU in Baton Rouge for a second straight year after the Oct. 8 meeting in Gainesville was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU installed as a 14.5-point home favorite with a total of 38.5. Gamblers can back the Gators on the money line for a monster +475 payout (risk $100 to win $475).

This is just the second time UF has ben a double-digit underdog since Jim McElwain took over. Florida took the cash in that lone instance, a 29-15 loss to Alabama as a 17.5-point underdog at last year’s SEC Championship Game.

LSU (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) is off its best performance of the season in Fayetteville, where it took Arkansas behind the woodshed in a 38-10 beatdown as a nine-point road ‘chalk.’ Derrius Guice erupted for a career-best 252 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. He was given extra touches when Leonard Fournette re-aggravated the ankle injury that prompted him to miss three games earlier in the year.

Nevertheless, Fournette still ran for 98 yards and three TDs on 17 attempts. He also had a pair of catches for 44 yards. For the season, Fournette has rushed for 803 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Guice has rushed for a team-best 881 yards and nine TDs, averaging an eye-opening 8.7 YPC on 101 attempts.

This game will feature a pair of former Purdue QBs. LSU’s Danny Etling once lost his job as Purdue’s starting QB to his counterpart on Saturday, UF’s Austin Appleby. Etling has completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards with a 7/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

He has a pair of future NFL WRs in Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural. Neither wideout gets enough touches, nor did Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham when they were in Baton Rouge. The stats don’t do either player justice, as both have 28 catches apiece. Dupre has a team-high 365 receiving yards and two TDs, while Dural has 280 receiving yards and one TD.

LSU ranks 13th in the nation in total defense and sixth in scoring, allowing only 13.9 points per game. This unit has held five of its last six foes to 10 points or fewer. This group is led by senior LB Kendell Beckwith, who has a team-best 90 tackles to go with six tackles for loss, one sack, one QB hurry and four passes broken up.

The secondary features a pair of All-American candidates in junior safety Jamal Adams and senior CB Tre’Davious White. Adams has recorded 60 tackles, one interception, one fumble recovery, 4.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble, one QB hurry and three PBU, while White has 26 tackles, two interceptions, one pick-six, one fumble recovery, three TFL’s, 0.5 sacks and six PBU.

Florida bounced back from a 31-10 loss at Arkansas by knocking off South Carolina 20-7 as a 13-point home favorite. With the exception of two plays, both turnovers, Appleby looked extremely sharp in his third start of the season against the Gamecocks, who brought a three-game winning streak to The Swamp.

Appleby completed 17-of-21 passes for 201 yards and two TDs. He was intercepted once and fumbled the QB-center exchange when the Gators were at USC’s two. Appleby did the same thing on a second-and-goal play when UF was one yard away from getting ahead of the number at Vanderbilt. The Gators had a 13-6 advantage on the Commodores with less than three remaining when they were laying 10 points.

Unlike Luke Del Rio, who will miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury, Appleby can make plays with his legs. He rushed for 34 yards on six attempts against USC. Jordan Scarlett finished with a career-best 134 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Antonio Callaway had four receptions for 48 yards, while WR Ahmad Fullwood had two catches for 48 yards and one TD on his Senior Day. Callaway had 100 yards on four punt returns despite getting one for a TD called back on a shaky flag.

For the year, Appleby has connected on 65.6 percent of his throws for 671 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Callaway has 35 receptions for 533 yards, while Brandon Powell has 30 catches for 291 yards and two TDs.

Scarlett has rushed for a team-high 617 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. True freshman Lamical Perine has emerged as the back-up to Scarlett. Perine has rushed for 347 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. He also has six catches for 103 yards and one TD.

UF’s stop unit is ranked third in the nation in total defense and pass defense. The Gators are fifth in scoring (13.3 PPG) and 11th against the run. However, they will be without four starters at LSU, including their top three tacklers.

Senior LB Jarrad Davis, junior LB Alex Anzalone, senior safety Marcus Maye and senior DE Bryan Cox Jr. are ‘out.’ Anzalone and Maye are done for the season, while Davis (ankle) and Cox (leg) hope to return in the regular-season finale at Florida St.

Davis has 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two sacks, five QB hurries and four PBU, while Anzalone has tallied 53 tackles, four TFL’s, three sacks, six QB hurries and two PBU. Maye has produced 50 tackles, six PBU, one sack, 1.5 TFL’s and one interception.

Kylan Johnson, a redshirt freshman LB, made his first career start vs. South Carolina and responded well. Johnson had seven tackles and one TFL. Also, true freshman LB David Reese had 11 tackles against the Gamecocks.

Florida has been a road underdog just twice on Jim McElwain’s watch, going 0-1-1 ATS. The Gators dropped a 38-28 decision at Tennessee as five-point ‘dogs earlier this year. Also, they lost 35-28 at LSU as seven-point ‘dogs last season.

UF has been a ‘dog or 6.5 points or more three times under McElwain, compiling a 2-0-1 spread record.

I was at Tiger Stadium for last year’s encounter. With the game knotted at 28-28 midway through the fourth quarter, Les Miles called a successful trick play against Florida for the umpteenth time in a row in his 11th meeting against them. It worked – yet again – when the holder lateraled to kicker Trent Domingue who scored on a 16-yard TD run.

Fournette ran for 180 yards and two TDs on 31 carries, while Dupre had four receptions for 115 yards and two TDs. Dural had five catches for 65 yards.

Callaway had three catches for 100 yards and tied the game late in the third quarter with a 72-yard punt return for a TD.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Gators, 2-1 in their three previous road assignments. They have seen their games average combined scores of 39.6 points per game.

The ‘under’ has been a steady money maker for LSU, cashing at a 6-1-2 overall clip. The ‘under’ is 4-0-2 in the Tigers’ six home games.

The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back meetings between these schools and is 6-3 in the last nine UF-LSU encounters.

LSU has won three in a row over UF both SU and ATS. The Gators haven’t tasted victory over the Tigers since a 14-6 win at The Swamp in 2012.

The SEC Network will provide the broadcast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Even if UF loses in Red Stick, Tennessee must win Saturday’s home game (and next week’s game at Vandy) vs. Missouri to keep alive its hopes to go to Atlanta for the first time since 2007. CBS will have television coverage from Neyland Stadium at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have the Vols favored by 16.5 point with a total of 68.

Ole Miss (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) garnered a season-salvaging 29-28 win at Texas A&M last Saturday night. The Rebels, who have been on the wrong end of tight games galore all year, trailed at intermission for the first time all season. However, true freshman QB Shea Patterson, who was making his collegiate debut, rallied his team by throwing a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter before leading a drive into field-goal range for Gary Wunderlich’s 39-yard game winner with 37 ticks remaining. Patterson threw for 338 yards and rushed for 64 in front of more than 104,000 hostile fans in College Station. Ole Miss will face Vanderbilt in Nashville as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk.’

The ‘under’ has cashed in all six of Vandy’s SEC games this year. Each of those contests had 43 points or fewer. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS when catching 9.5 points or more this year. They haven’t lost any SEC games by a double-digit margin. When listed as a home underdog on Derek Mason’s watch, the ‘Dores own a 6-3 spread record.

Alabama will take on Chattanooga as a heavy favorite, but the line wasn’t out as of late Friday afternoon. It will certainly be north of 35 when it comes out Friday night or early Saturday morning. Therefore, we should note that the Crimson Tide is an abysmal 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite of 35 points or more.

Texas A&M is a 27.5-point home favorite vs. UTSA. The Aggies have failed to cover the number in six straight games. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are 3-1 ATS in four games as double-digit underdogs and the lone non-cover was a brutal bad beat to La. Tech last week. UTSA has won outright as a double-digit ‘dog at Middle Tennessee (45-25) and vs. So. Miss (55-32).

Arkansas is a short underdog at Mississippi St. The Hogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 20-13 ATS as home favorites on Dan Mullen’s watch.

Kentucky will become bowl eligible with a victory over winless Austin Peay. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings.

NCAAF: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Oklahoma at West Virginia

The Sooners (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS) have ripped off seven consecutive victories (4-3 ATS), including a 45-24 rout of Baylor at home Saturday giving 17.5 points. Sooners no slouches on the offensive end are racking up 44.2 points/game on 557.5 total yards. But, the defense despite a solid effort this past weekend is a work in progress as the unit is allowing 30.8 points/game on 429.5 total yards.

Mountaineers (8-1, 4-5 ATS) holding off Longhorn 24-20 as a 1-point road favorite Saturday are ridding a two game win streak (1-1 ATS). Mountaineers head into the showdown putting up 32.2 points/game while churning out 496.6 total yards. Defense a moniker for Mountaineers the unit is allowing a Big-12 best 20.6 points/game on 409.8 total yards.

The schools have met four times since Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012 with Sooners winning all four matchups (2-2 ATS) including a 45-33 win/cover last trip into Morgantown. According to opening odds at Sports Interaction Sooners are handing Mountaineers 3.0 points of offense.

Winning on the road is always a challenge, winning on the road against a conference rival an even bigger challenge. However, Sooners are 6-1 ATS as road chalk of 4.5 or less, have a 16-2 SU stretch in unfriendly territory with a profitable 12-6 record against the betting line including 9-5 ATS as road chalk. Sooners are also 7-4 ATS last eleven away vs a conference opponent. On the other side, Mountaineers haven't consistently covered the spread at home vs a Big-12 rival posting an 8-13 record including 4-3 ATS in an underdog roll. Given the numbers above the lean is Sooners.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Spread to bet now:

Illinois (+10) vs. Iowa

This line opened at +11.5 and was quickly bet down to the key number of +10. This is a major flat spot for Iowa as they just won straight-up 14-13 as a +24 point home underdog versus Michigan, and now the Hawkeyes are laying points on the road. Iowa has only won once by more than 7 points on the road this season.

Illinois is coming off a blowout loss at Wisconsin last week, but the Illini played well in their previous home game, winning outright 31-27 versus Michigan State as a +9.5 point home dog. Illinois is averaging 27.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this year. The Illini also have a solid rushing attack that averages 5.2 yards per carry in all games this season (versus opponents that allow just 4.7 ypr).

Spread to wait on:

Arizona State (+27.5) at Washington

This line opened at +25 and was quickly bet higher to +26.5 and now stands at +27.5 in some spots. The public will likely play the big favorite, so wait for the possibility of the key number of +28 appearing. Many will expect Washington to bounce back after their first loss of the season, but historically teams that lose their first game this late in the season suffer a letdown. The Huskies might have eliminated themselves from the national playoff picture with their 26-13 home loss versus USC last weekend.

Arizona State has dominated this series, going a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS versus Washington since 2002, and the Sun Devils are catching the Huskies at a good time this week. Despite just a 2-5 SU conference record this season, Arizona State has not lost any game by more than 24 points.

Total to watch:

Oregon at Utah (70)

Oregon is just 3-7 SU this season and a terrible 1-8 ATS, but they are 7-3 to the Over. The Ducks have a solid offense that is averaging 37.1 points per game on 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 28.9 ppg and 5.9 yppl). However, Oregon's defense has been horrendous, allowing 43.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 32.9 ppg and 5.8 yppl).

Utah enters this game on a 3-0 Over run, scoring 49 points or more in two of their past three games. Overall, the Utes are averaging 31.2 points per game (versus opponents that allow just 30.8 ppg). Utah should have continued offensive success against an Oregon defense that has allowed 45.7 points per game on the road this season. The Over is a perfect 3-0 the past three years in this head-to-head series with an average of 75 total points scored per game.