College Football Betting News and Notes Week 13

Late Season Lightning
By Robbie Gainous

With college, teams nearing the finish line of the regular season I decided to investigate how teams perform against the spread during the latter half of the season. Of course, there are endless possibilities for one to investigate and I have found some very powerful late season gems including the one I will share with you today.

Late in the season road underdogs of more than a touchdown have struggled when coming off a huge upset win. Even winning when they were not supposed to come close to a victory does little to convince the oddsmakers they are legit as they install them once again as a substantial underdog in their next contest.

System: From Game 10 on, play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 7 points off a SU win as a conference underdog of more than 16 points. The system has a record of 9-0 ATS since 1988 covering the spread by an average of 12.9 points per game.

Having defeated a team where they were such a large underdog brings high emotion along with mental and physical fatigue. In researching this situation, I found these road underdogs do not work as hard preparing the following week and the combination of factors translates into a poor performance in their next game.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys entered Jack Trice Stadium in Ames Iowa back on November 18 ranked #2 in the nation and staring at a possible shot at a national title. Their opponent on that night was the Iowa State Cyclones who were installed as 26.5-point underdogs against the red-hot Cowboys.

The Cyclones prior to that game were 0-56-2 when facing teams that were ranked sixth or better in the AP poll at the time they played them. At the end of regulation, the score was tied at 24 points. Iowa State pulled off the impossible in the second overtime defeating the Cowboys 37 to 31.

Iowa State has posted a record of 8-3 ATS when installed as a double-digit conference underdog. Included in those victories were major upsets of Nebraska, Texas, and Texas Tech and of course the most recent one against Oklahoma State. The key here for us they are 0-3 ATS after those three monster upset victories. Our system also tells us they will not catch lightning in a bottle again on Saturday.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies Iowa State as our play AGAINST team when they face the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday in Norman. Play ON the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over the Iowa State Cyclones.

Big 10 Report - Week 13
By ASAWins.com

This is the final week of Big Ten play and that means its rivalry week. Ohio State meets Michigan in "The Game" while Nebraska and Iowa play the first annual "Heroes Game." However, the biggest game on the schedule is not a rivalry matchup, it's a winner-take-all game in the Leaders division as Wisconsin meets Penn State with a trip to Indianapolis on the line. There aren't a lot of heavy favorites this week as Vegas is leaning towards close games in some heated rivalries. ASA takes a look at the inside scoop on every Big Ten matchup this weekend.

FRIDAY

Nebraska (-9.5) vs. Iowa

NEB: 8-3 SU, 3-8 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 17-45
IOWA: 7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, W 31-21

There's not a whole lot at stake in the first "Heroes Game," but this game will determine initial bragging rights moving forward in this new annual rivalry game. Iowa will play its second straight road game after finally notching its first road win of the season last week in a 10-point victory at Purdue. The Huskers need to protect their home turf to avoid finishing 8-4 in what would be a disappointing first season in the Big Ten.

Nebraska suffered its second humiliating road loss of the season last week in a 28-point defeat at the hands of Michigan. The Huskers had turnovers, special team's gaffes, and penalties in a miserable performance. They return home this week to try and save some face against Iowa in a game that should determine decent bowl position. QB Martinez is much better at home than he's been on the road this season. In six home games, he's averaging 175 pass yards per game (60%) with 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions while also rushing for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns (152 YPG, 51%, 3 TD, 3 INT, 252 rush yards and 2 rush TD on the road).

Iowa's offense should be able to score in Lincoln behind QB Vandenberg (23 touchdowns, 5 interceptions), RB Coker (#2 B10 with 1,297 rush yards and 14 TD), and WR McNutt (74 receptions, 1,240 yards, 12 touchdowns). Nebraska's defense allowed 418 yards and 45 points against Michigan last week and has been vulnerable to strong offenses this season.

Something to consider: Nebraska has won six straight home finales by an average of 20 points per game. Iowa is 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.

SATURDAY

Wisconsin (-14.5) vs. Penn State

WISC: 9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, W 28-17
PSU: 9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS - Last week: at Ohio State, W 20-14

Wisconsin had its worst offensive output of the season last week in Illinois with just 285 total yards and 28 points. The Badgers were down 17-7 at halftime but held the Illini scoreless in the second half to set up a Leaders Division winner-take-all game here against Penn State. These two haven't met since 2008 but the favorite has covered six straight in the series (PSU has covered last two by 35 & 24 points, respectively).

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We'll find out Saturday. Wisconsin's offense ranks 12th nationally in yards per game and 5th nationally in points per game and hasn't been held below 28 points this season. Penn State ranks 8th in yards allowed per game and 3rd in points allowed per game and hasn't allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points this season.

PSU is in a tough position, playing its third straight emotional game after head coach Joe Paterno was let go. The Nittany Lions had a close home loss to Nebraska, won at Ohio State, and now have a B10 Championship semifinal here at Wisconsin. It will be difficult for the Nittany Lions to match the output displayed the previous two weeks.

Something to consider: Penn State is 4-0 away from home this season, but Wisconsin is 49-4 straight up at home since 2004 (31-19-3 ATS). The Badgers are 14-4-2 ATS the last 20 home finales and are 8-2 ATS as a conference favorite the last three years.

Michigan (-8) vs. Ohio State

MICH: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, W 45-17
OSU: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 14-20

For the first time in a long time, 'The Game' will have no impact on the Big Ten Champion. Neither team can win its division, but Michigan is still playing for a potential shot at a BCS at-large bid with only two losses. For the first time since 2004, the Wolverines are favored as they look to end a seven game skid to the Buckeyes (OSU is 5-2 ATS during the streak and has won three straight in Ann Arbor).

Michigan notched a signature win with a dominating performance Saturday against Nebraska. QB Robinson and RB Toussaint combined for 221 rush yards and six total touchdowns. Michigan's ever-improving defense recorded three key takeaways and held Nebraska to just 11 first downs.

After OSU's big home win over Wisconsin on October 29th, the Buckeyes have dropped two of three and play overwhelmingly weak football. Offensively they are averaging just 23 points per game and 328 yards per game in the last three (1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS). QB Miller is averaging just 76 pass YPG (49%) and defenses are stacking the box to stop the rush because they realize Miller is unlikely to hurt them through the air. The Wolverines should do the same as they are allowing just 113 rush yards per game in Big Ten play.

Something to consider: Ohio State hasn't been more than a seven point underdog since the 2009 Fiesta Bowl against Texas (+8 and covered, losing 21-24). The Buckeyes are now 7-1 ATS their last eight games as an underdog (3-1 ATS this season).

Northwestern (+6.5) vs. Michigan State

NW: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Minnesota, W 28-13
MSU: 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 55-3

Michigan State assured itself a spot in the Big Ten Championship game with a definitive 55-3 beatdown of Indiana last week. The Spartans will try to avoid a letdown here as there aren't any stakes on this game considering they'll face either Wisconsin or Penn State next week in the B10 Championship. Northwestern, on the other hand, wants to enhance its Bowl profile with a big win here against MSU.

Credit Northwestern for bouncing back after a five-game losing streak put its season in jeopardy. The Wildcats have no reeled off four straight victories and are bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive year. This defense allowed over 35 points per game during the five game skid, but has allowed just 21 per game over the previous four.

Michigan State has now won three straight in this series. Last year, the Spartans fell behind 17-0 before outscoring the Wildcats 35-10 in the narrow eight point victory. MSU QB Cousins threw for 331 yards and 3 scores to lead the Spartans to victory. Northwestern is 5-2 ATS the last seven (but has only two straight up victories).

Something to consider: MSU is 7-1-1 ATS as an away favorite and Northwestern is 3-6 ATS as a Big Ten home underdog.

Indiana (+7.5) vs. Purdue

IND: 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 3-55
PUR: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Iowa, L 21-31

After last week's disappointing loss, Purdue has now followed all five of its wins with a loss this season. The Boilers committed four turnovers and racked up only 282 yards against Iowa and now must beat rival Indiana to get bowl eligible for the first time since 2007.

This season can't come to an end soon enough for the Hoosiers. They've now dropped eight straight games by an average margin of 18 points per game (42-18 average score). This defense ranks at or near the bottom of every major statistical category and hasn't held an opponent to under 34 points since October 1st. This is their final chance to record a win over an FBS opponent (only win came against FCS South Carolina State).

Purdue hasn't won on the road yet this season. They've dropped all four games by an average of 19 points per game. Last year the Boilers lost in overtime to the Hoosiers, just their second loss to Indiana in the past nine meetings. Purdue hasn't dropped back-to-back games to Indiana since 1993-94.

Something to consider: Indiana is 4-2 ATS as a conf home underdog last two years. Purdue is just 3-6 its last nine as a Big Ten road favorite, and this will mark the first occasion since 2009 (-3 at Indiana, W 38-21).

Minnesota (+10.5) vs. Illinois

MINN: 2-9 SU, 6-5 ATS - Last week: at Northwestern, L 13-28
ILL: 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, L 17-28

Illinois could go from a 6-0 start in the first half of the season to a 0-6 finish if it can't beat Minnesota on Saturday. Head coach Ron Zook likely needs a victory here to save his job, although a win here might not even do that. Minnesota has dropped three straight games after a promising win over Iowa in October 29th. Illinois is off of a grueling home loss to the Badgers (a game the Illini should have won) and it will be difficult to have a motivated performance here.

Minnesota allowed Northwestern to score three touchdowns on their first three possessions last week and were quickly disposed of by the Wildcats. Offensively this team is having difficulty developing any sort of consistency. The Gophers rank 110th in total offense and 113th in scoring offense. QB Gray leads the team in rushing, but struggles through the air, completing just 51% with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.

Something to consider: Minnesota beat Illinois, 38-34, as a 21-point underdog last season. The Gophers are now 6-1 ATS last seven meetings with Illinois.

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 13
By Adam Thompson
Covers.com

Houston Cougars at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+3, 75)

Why Houston will cover: The Cougars can see a BCS light at the end of the tunnel. That’s motivation. Plus, Houston’s top-ranked passing (448 ypg) and scoring (53.1 ppg) offense faces a Tulsa defense that ranks 107th against the pass.

Why Tulsa will cover: Tulsa has won seven straight and five straight ATS, thanks to an explosive offense. The Hurricane beat Houston last year.

Points: Both teams can light up a scoreboard and each has a mediocre defense. Both have been hitting the over in recent weeks.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-9.5, 53.5)

Why Iowa will cover: NU is floundering ATS, going 0-2-1 in its last three and 3-8-1 in its last 12. Iowa is balanced and typically steady.

Why Nebraska will cover: Nebraska is 14th at running the ball and 19th against the pass. A quick lead and Iowa’s in trouble. Plus, the Hawkeyes aren’t great at doing anything, and have just one road win all year.

Points: The over is 7-3 in Iowa’s last 10, though the under has hit in four of Nebraska’s last five.

Arkansas Razorbacks at LSU Tigers (-12, 52)

Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks offense has been on, scoring 44 or more in three straight. They won at LSU last year, so they won’t be intimidated by the surroundings.

Why LSU will cover: LSU’s defense has shut down the best of them and the unit ranks in the top 10 across the board. LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six. Arkansas’ defense hasn’t been great against the run.

Points: The over has hit in Arkansas’ last four games, all with a similar total to this game. But with a potential BCS trip on the line, defense has prevailed in big games like this.

Pittsburgh Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers (-6.5, 57)

Why Pittsburgh will cover: West Virginia struggles to run already and Pitt excels at stopping it, making the Mountaineers one dimensional. Pitt is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with a winning record.

Why West Virginia will cover: Pitt’s offense has been stagnant, and West Virginia’s defense has been improving. Plus, the Mountaineers’ offense averages 362 ypg through the air, and slowing the pass is not a Panthers’ strength.

Points: The over is 8-1 in WVU’s last nine, though it’s 1-4 in Pitt’s last five.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+6.5, 54.5)

Why Georgia will cover: Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine. Meanwhile, GT is floundering, 1-4 ATS in its last five. Georgia ranks No. 2 at stopping the run, which is very favorable against the No. 2 rush attack of GT.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Georgia was unimpressive in hanging on to beat hapless Kentucky last week. Georgia Tech’s offense can still steamroll the best of them on any given day.

Points: The under is 6-2 in Georgia’s last eight and is 3-1 in Tech’s last four.

Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats (+6.5, 51.5)

Why Michigan State will cover: The Spartans’ defense is No. 4 against the pass and No. 10 against the run. The Wildcats haven’t fared well against elite defenses. MSU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight.

Why Northwestern will cover: The Wildcats have won four straight SU, including at Nebraska. An offense that ranks 37th in both rushing and passing can put a lot of pressure on opponents.

Points: The over is 7-2 in NW’s last nine Big Ten games, but is under in its last three overall.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (-8, 45)

Why Ohio State will cover: Ohio State has owned Michigan for most of the last decade. The Buckeyes have a defense that ranks 14th overall and an offense that continues to get better.

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines won’t take lightly a real shot at knocking off the hated Buckeyes. Ohio State is 0-3 ATS in its last three - Michigan is 3-1 in its last four - and Michigan shut down a Nebraska offense that has similar strengths to OSU.

Points: The under is 4-1 in Michigan’s last five, and OSU’s strength is still its defense.

Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-32.5, 61)

Why Wyoming will cover: The Cowboys fare well on the road, 12-4 ATS in its last 16. Boise State, meanwhile, is 0-4 ATS in its last four. Wyoming’s pass defense is steady.

Why Boise State will cover: Boise State, for its recent flubs, still has one of the top offenses around, and the defense remains strong against the rush (Wyoming’s preferred way to move the ball). Plus, it’s Senior Day at BSU. They’ll do what it takes to send Kellen Moore and Co. out in style.

Points: The over is 6-0 in Boise’s last six but 0-3 in Wyoming’s last three.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+21, 47)

Why Alabama will cover: Alabama’s defense ranks No. 1 in the nation in stopping the run, stopping the pass, and in points allowed. Auburn’s offense can’t move the ball through the air.

Why Auburn will cover: That’s a big spread for the Iron Bowl, especially against the defending national champions who are unbeaten at home.

Points: Auburn’s going to struggle to move the ball consistently, so that’s a big number for one team, the road team, to hit by itself.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears (-12.5, 77.5)

Why Texas Tech will cover: Texas Tech can throw the ball (No. 7) and Baylor can’t stop it (No. 93). Baylor is 2-3 ATS in its last five.

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor can also throw (No. 5), but they can run the ball, too (No. 25). And Texas Tech is 119th at stopping the run. The Bears are 7-1 in their last eight vs. teams with a sub-.500 record.

Points: Points will be easy to come by, though that’s a real high number.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Virginia Cavaliers (+5, 45.5)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Statistically, Virginia Tech is better in just about every way. The Hokies are now in position for a potential BCS title and must be reinvigorated.

Why Virginia will cover: Virginia is on a roll, 6-1 SU and 4-0 ATS lately. The defense has held opponents to 21 or fewer six of the last seven games.

Points: The under is 8-1 in Virginia’s last nine and is 2-1-1 in VT’s last four.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Wisconsin Badgers (+14.5, 49)

Why Penn State will cover: After going 5-0-1 ATS early, Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS since. The Nittany Lions defense is No. 3 in points allowed and their last seven games have all been decided either way by 10 points or less.

Why Wisconsin will cover: Penn State’s defensive liability is in slowing the run, which fits into Wisconsin’s gameplan (10th). The Badgers are 6-0-1 ATS at home.

Points: The under is 9-1-1 for PSU and has hit in UW’s last two.

Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-28, 63.5)

Why Oregon State will cover: The Beavers have their issues, but they can throw it, averaging 286 ypg through the air. And Oregon ranks 87th at pass defense.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks offense is too powerful for OSU to stop it. And once they get the lead, and can run, run, run, it’ll only grow.

Points: The over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

Clemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks (-4, 50)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers still have one of the more powerful offenses around and it only takes a few breaks for them to blow a game wide open.

Why South Carolina will cover: The Gamecocks have alternated win/loss ATS all season long. Last week, they lost. And Clemson is 0-3 ATS in its last three. Plus, USC is No. 2 in pass defense, which negates Clemson’s chief strength.

Points: All trends point toward and under finish.

Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners (-28, 68.5)

Why Iowa State will cover: After a rough midseason ISU is back on track, going 3-1 ATS in its last four. The team can run the ball and run defense is OU’s main concern.

Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma’s offense can pass and run and averages 44.7 ppg (sixth). Iowa State’s defense ranks 84th in points allowed.

Points: The over is 6-2 for OU games and there should be some points scored both sides here.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 58)

Why Notre Dame will cover: The Irish continue to improve on offense, while Stanford seems to be taking steps back, especially on defense.

Why Stanford will cover: Stanford can beat teams by running or passing and Notre Dame is just OK against both.

Points: The over is 4-1 in Stanford’s last five, but both teams seem poised for breakout offensive outbursts.

Clemson at South Carolina
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The Palmetto State has been treated to an outstanding season of college football that’ll be capped Saturday night when South Carolina (9-2 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) and Clemson square off at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia.

As of early Friday night, most betting shops had the Gamecocks installed as four-point favorites with a total of 49½. Gamblers can take Clemson (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) to win outright for a plus-155 return (risk $100 to win $155).

Steve Spurrier’s team beat every team in the SEC East this year, yet Georgia won the division title thanks to its 19-10 win over Kentucky last week. USC lost to Auburn and Arkansas in league play, while UGA didn’t have to play Alabama, LSU or Arkansas. The Bulldogs’ lone SEC loss came against the Gamecocks in Athens back in Week 2.

Nevertheless, South Carolina is still within reach of the first 11-win season in school history. Since dropping a 44-28 decision at Arkansas, the Gamecocks have won back-to-back games, including a 17-12 win over Florida as 3½-point home favorites two weeks ago.

The success of this 2011 USC team is even more remarkable considering the fact that three-year starting quarterback Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team in late October and star running back Marcus Lattimore was lost for the season with an ACL tear in a 14-12 win at Mississippi St. on Oct. 15.

Since Garcia’s departure, sophomore Connor Shaw has taken over under center. He played his best game in last week’s 41-20 win over The Citadel. Shaw completed 16-of-18 passes for 217 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 90 yards and one score on just 11 carries.

For the season, Shaw has connected on 64.9 percent of his throws for 1,008 yards with a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He runs a lot of read-option plays and is known more for his ability to run the ball, as evidenced by 376 rushing yards and six TDs.

Without Lattimore, true freshman RB Brandon Wilds has filled in extremely well. Wilds has gained 462 yards on 100 totes with three TDs rushing.

Shaw has the benefit of one of the nation’s best WRs in Alshon Jeffery, who faces double teams on nearly every play. His stats don’t do him justice, but we’ll point them out anyway. Jeffery has 43 receptions for 585 yards and six TDs, including the game winner at crunch time in Starkville.

Clemson was in the hunt for the national title just a month ago, but those dreams were shattered on The Flats in Atlanta where Ga. Tech captured a 31-17 win as a 3 ½-point home underdog.

The Tigers nearly fell victim to another upset bid the following week, but they were able to sneak past Wake Forest 31-28 on Chandler Catanzaro’s 43-yard field goal as time expired. The non-covering victory as 16 ½-point home favorites was bittersweet, however, as star freshman WR Sammy Watkins sustained a shoulder injury.

Watkins’ absence was on full display last week when North Carolina State thumped Clemson by a 37-13 count as a 7½-point home underdog. Tajh Boyd was intercepted twice and wasn’t nearly as effective without his favorite target, Watkins, who is ‘probable’ to play Saturday night.

For the season, Boyd has been terrific. He has a 27/10 TD-INT ratio and has thrown for 3,255 yards. Watkins has 70 catches for 1,040 yards and 10 TDs and he’s also a threat to go the distance on any given touch in the return game. This could come into play as USC ranks last in the SEC in kickoff coverage.

Andre Ellington is the Tigers’ workhorse on the ground. Ellington has rushed for 871 yards and nine TDs, averaging 4.8 YPC.

When Boyd drops back to throw, he will have to be wary of three big-time pass rushers for the Gamecocks. Melvin Ingram is fourth in the SEC in sacks with 6.5 and has scored three TDs (two on defense, one on special teams). Also, Devin Taylor and Jadeveon Clowney have combined for nine sacks and Clowney leads the SEC in forced fumbles with five.

Clowney sustained a concussion last week and is listed as ‘questionable,’ but reports out of Columbia indicate that he returned to practice Thursday and will most likely play.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

In the most meaningless FSU-Florida game in decades, these scrub squads will collide Saturday night at The Swamp with a chance to at least give their fans one small sense of satisfaction in a lost season for both schools. Most spots have the Seminoles favored by 2 ½ with a total of 45. ESPN2 will provide the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. The ‘Noles haven’t won in Gainesville since The Swamp Swindle (Jack Childress was on the take without a doubt!) in 2003. The Gators have won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings.

Stanford will take on Notre Dame as a seven-point favorite in Palo Alto at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC. The Cardinal has failed to cover the number in back-to-back games after taking the cash in its first nine contests.

Can Iowa State pull another monster upset this week in Norman? The Las Vegas Hilton has the Cyclones with 32.5/1 odds to beat Oklahoma outright.

How many Hilliards live in Louisiana, anyway?

NCAAF Week 13

Saturday's best games

Ohio State won its last seven games vs Michigan, with last four by 11+ points, but all that was with Tressel coaching Buckeyes; things are a lot different now, with OSU losing three of four four road games. Favorites covered six of last nine series games, with Buckeyes winning four of last five played here. Wolverines are 5-1 as home favorites this year, and in only game they didn't cover, they still won 31-3.

Underdogs covered seven of last nine Michigan State-Northwestern tilts, with Spartans winning last three, by 8-10-17 points; MSU won its last three visits here, by 8-17-3 points. Wildcats won last four games to get bowl eligible; they're 3-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 at home- they've lost home games by 18 to Michigan, 10 to Penn State. State is 5-1 as a fave, 1-0 on road; they're 2-2 SU on road (won 10-7 at OSU, 37-21 ai Iowa).

Georgia is in SEC title game next week; do they look past this game and look ahead to playing that game? Dawgs won nine of last ten games with Georgia Tech, winning last five played in Atlanta, with all five wins by 6+ points; underdogs covered last three series games, with average total in last four, 66.3. Georgia won last nine games after 0-2 start; they're 3-1 as road favorites. Jackets lost three of last five games, are 1-2 as a dog.

Clemson has ACC title game next week; they lost last two road games, but won outright in only game as dog this year, at Va Tech. Tigers lost last two games vs South Carolina (29-7/34-17), but won five of their last seven visits here- underdogs covered four of last five series games here. Gamecocks are 5-1 since Shaw became QB, but scored 17 or less points in three of Shaw's four starts vs I-A opponents.

Six of last eight Alabama-Auburn tilts were won by eight or less points, with Crimson Tide losing three of last four visits here (win was 26-21 in last visit). Auburn is 7-4, but losses are by 14-24-35-38 points- they've been outscored 68-10 in second half of thoe four games. Tide is 7-3 as a favorite this year- they'replaying for spot in national title game, if LSU won its game Friday. SEC favorites of 20+ points are 6-2 this season.

Virginia Tech won last seven games vs Virginia, with six of seven by 12+ points; they beat UVa 37-7/42-13 last two years. Hokies are 5-1 in last six visits here, winning last three by 29-12-38 points, but Cavaliers are better this year, winning six of last seven games, including rare win last week at Florida State. Hokies are 5-0 on road, 2-3 as road favorite, with road wins by 7-20-21-4-11 points. Winner here plays Clemson in ACC title game next week.

Favorites covered last six Penn State-Wisconsin games. Lions hammered Wisconsin 48-7/38-7 last two years, but they scored 16 or less points in six games this year- defense has allowed 7-17-14 points last three games. Bully Badgers allowed 37-33 points in their two losses, both away from home- they're 4-1 as home favorites, and in only non-cover they crushed UNLV 51-17. Winner here goes to first Big Dozen title game next week.

Florida won six of last seven games vs Florida State, with favorites 4-0 vs spread in last four; favorites covered State's last six visits to Swamp. Seminoles lost its last three visits here by a combined score of 116-29. Gators lost five of last six games against I-A foes, with turnover ratio of -10; they're 0-4 as an underdog this year, with three of five losses by 11 or more points. SEC non-conference underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in '11.

Stanford beat Notre Dame 37-14/45-38 last two years, after losing seven in row to Irish before that; underdogs covered Irish's last three visits to Farm, with Notre Dame winning three of last four here. Stanford won its rivalry game by FG over Cal last week; Cardinal defense hasn't played as well since the USC game. Pac-10 non-conference home favorites are 7-5 vs spread. Irish is 4-1 on road; this is their first game as underdog in '11- they covered their last four games as a road underdog.

Last game of season for probation-bound USC; UCLA gets to Pac-12 title game if they pull upset here. USC won 11 of last 12 games against Bruins, winning last four, all by 14+ points; UCLA lost its last six visits here (1-5 vs spread, and only cover was 24-7 loss). Pac-10 home faves of between 10-20 points are 4-7 vs spread in conference games this season. UCLA is 1-4 on road this year, losing last three away games by scores of 45-19/48-12/31-6. Trojans covered five of seven as a favorite this year.

This Week in the ACC
Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Murky Swamp

Since its national title in 1993, Florida State has won two games in The Swamp at Florida Field, the last in 2003, when QB Chris Rix hit WR P.K. Sam in the end zone on a Hail Mary pass.

Leon Washington (134 yards in 2002) was the last FSU RB who rushed for more than 65 yards against UF. The Gators are ranked 51st nationally in rush defense, allowing 141.6 yards per game.

Mistakes have plagued FSU and Florida this season. UF is 118th and FSU 119th nationally in penalties per game.

"It's the end of the year," coach Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said. "Those need to stop. Very disappointing."

Florida is 7-1 ATS as a home dog in games off a loss.

Bit By The Bug

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said his team simply can't afford any more serious injuries.

"One of my hopes was if we could just keep our core guys healthy the first six, seven games this season, I really felt we could make a run at this thing, and that's how it worked out. We've been able to keep most of our key guys on the field. But it's caught up with us here these past couple games," said Swinney.

Clemson has just 10 players on the roster from its 2009 recruiting class, which has hurt the team's depth.

"The junior and redshirt sophomore class is so small in sheer numbers, said DC Kevin Steele. "Then when you factor in injuries and who in the class is playing ... there just aren't very many. There is a void of experience because of that."

Star WR Sammy Watkins (AC joint, right shoulder) has practiced all week in pads and said he thinks he will be near 100 percent for Saturday's game against South Carolina. Watkins missed the N.C. State game last week. Watkins leads the team with 1.034 receiving yards and 10 TDs.

Grudge Match

NC State QB Mike Glennon hasn't forgotten last season's 38-31 loss at Maryland.

"We had a lot at stake," he said. "They beat us and took away our chances for the ACC championship. This year we know they want to ruin our chances for a bowl game, so we know we have to come out and play really well."

Glennon realizes this is the biggest game of the season for the Wolfpack.

"We know we have to win to go to a bowl," he said. "The stakes are high. Before the season it was one of our goals to go to a bowl game. And we all know we just have to win Saturday and we're going to one."

NCSU coach Tom O'Brien said Maryland's task in preparing for Saturday's game is simple.

"They have nothing to lose," he said of the Terps (2-9). "They can play this game any way they want. This is their bowl game. … Certainly I would guess it's been a frustrating season for them, so it's their chance to go out on a high note."

For The Cheese

Virginia Tech DC Bud Foster said the team doesn't need to be reminded that the Coastal Division is on the line against Virginia on Saturday. The winner captures the Coastal Division championship.

"We've been working for it all year, and they know what's at stake," Foster said. "We're used to this. We're used to being in this game. We know exactly what's at stake."

The Hokies have defeated Virginia each of the last seven years.

"There's a reason why they've been the ACC champs," Virginia Coach Mike London said. "They have players that have phenomenal talent. They're in a position where they can backup what they've talked about, what they've done."

Home For The Holidays

Miami QB Jacory Harris said he felt guilty about the team not going to a bowl game.

"It hurt me. I felt like the things occurred at the beginning of the season was the reason we lost our bowl game," Harris said. "It hit me hard and I cried in front of everybody." Harris was one of eight players suspended for receiving extra benefits.

When asked about his time at UM, Harris said, "I've had a great time. I'm happy with how everything turned out. This coaching staff has left a lasting impact on me. I just want to be known as one of the greatest, coolest, guys that ever came to the University of Miami."

Coach Al Golden said he understands how Harris feels.

"I'm sure there is some guilt there," Golden said. "Our job is to forgive them. It's a sacrifice that we all have to make."

Golden expects emotions to be running high this Friday.

"I'm going to be emotional because the bond that I have with the seniors is not commensurate to the amount of time that I've been with them. It far exceeds that. We've been through more adversity than any body. I'm going to try and temper their emotions until after the game, but it's easy to say and hard to do."

From The Database

• ACC Head-to-Head: Clemson 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS at Gamecocks… Florida State 0-5 ATS off loss at Gators… Georgia Tech 1-9 ATS home vs Bulldogs… Miami Fla 4-0 ATS vs Eagles… NC State 1-7 SU and ATS off SU and ATS win vs Terrapins… North Carolina 2-10-1 ATS favored off loss vs Blue Devils… Virginia Tech 9-1-1 ATS off back-to-back wins.

• ACC Coaches: Boston College coach Spaziani 4-1 ATS away vs opponent off SU and ATS win… Clemson coach Swinney 1-4 ATS off SU favorite loss… Georgia Tech coach Johnson 11-3 ATS dogs off win vs opponent off ATS loss…Maryland coach Edsall 0-4 ATS last game of the season off loss… Miami coach Golden 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS last game of the season… NC State coach O'Brien 11-3-1 ATS home off SU dog win… Virginia Tech coach Beamer 7-1-1 ATS last game of the season off back-to-back wins… Wake Forest head coach Grobe 7-13 ATS home vs non-conference foe.

• STAT OF THE WEEK: ACC teams are 1-13 ATS this season when facing an avenging opponent off a loss of six or more points in its last game (Wake Forest).

College Football Week 13 Action: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+6, 54.5)

THE STORY: Motivation will not be an issue for either No. 14 Georgia or No. 21 Georgia Tech when the two in-state rivals meet at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. The Bulldogs are one of the hottest teams in the country, having won nine games in a row since starting the season 0-2. Georgia clinched the SEC East Division last week and awaits LSU, Arkansas or Alabama in next weekend’s SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets rebounded from a loss against Virginia Tech that eliminated Tech from the ACC Coastal Division title chase, winning 38-31 at Duke.

Much like everything else between Georgia and Tech, the series history sparks debate. Georgia claims it leads 61-37-5, not counting two Tech wins in 1943-44. Tech naturally counts the two victories, saying the series record is 61-39-5. Georgia has won nine of the past 10 meetings.

LINE: Georgia opened around -5.5 and was bet up to -6.5 before settling around -6.

ABOUT GEORGIA (9-2, 7-1 SEC): Georgia played perhaps its worst game in two months last week, scoring just one offensive touchdown and posting a season-low in points scored in a 19-10 victory over Kentucky in Athens. With leading rusher Isaiah Crowell out after the first series with an injured ankle, and second-leading rusher Carlton Thomas not in uniform, the Bulldogs got 101 yards rushing from Brandon Harton. Both Crowell and Thomas are expected to play this week. Georgia’s defense ranks fourth in the nation, and figures to provide a strong challenge for Tech’s triple-option attack.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (8-3, 5-3 ACC): The Yellow Jackets run the ball as well as any team in the nation. Tech ranks second in the country in rushing offense (323.5 yards) and 17th in points scored (36.5). The Yellow Jackets rushed for five touchdowns last week against Duke. Quarterback Tevin Washington rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown, and passed for 185 yards. Tech leads the ACC and ranks 23rd nationally in passing defense, but gave up season highs in pass completions, attempts and touchdowns last week.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings in Georgia Tech.
* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Longtime Georgia broadcaster Larry Munson died Sunday at age 89. Munson called Georgia games from 1966-2008.

2. Georgia gave up 512 yards of total offense to Tech last year, but held on for a 42-34 victory in Athens.

3. A victory would give Tech nine wins for the third time in four years under coach Paul Johnson.

PREDICTION: Georgia 24, Georgia Tech 17 – The Bulldogs’ defense will stop the Yellow Jackets’ triple option just enough for Georgia to edge its in-state rival.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines (-7.5, 44.5)

THE STORY: The Big Ten's signature rivalry takes center stage when Ohio State travels to face No. 16 Michigan. The Buckeyes have won six consecutive games against the Wolverines (excluding last year's vacated victory) but are down this season, coming off consecutive losses against Purdue and Penn State. Michigan, meanwhile, is looking to carry over momentum from a 45-17 rout of then-No. 17 Nebraska.

LINE: Michigan opened as high as -8 and was bet down to 7.5, with a few -7 spreads out there.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (6-5): The Buckeyes, who are just 1-3 in true road games, have struggled this year largely to a stagnant offense that ranks 108th among FBS teams in total yardage (315.0) and 118th in passing (118.0). Quarterback Braxton Miller is the team's leading rusher with 595 yards, but he has completed just 48.6 percent of his passes. Ohio State has the 14th-ranked defense in the nation, yielding an average of 19 points.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (9-2): Junior QB Denard Robinson has been the headliner, but the Wolverines owe much of this year's revival to an improved defense that is sixth nationally in points allowed (15.6) while scoring three touchdowns itself. Senior LB Brandon Herron has returned a fumble and an interception for scores. The country's 12th-ranked rushing offense is paced by Robinson (993 yards, 14 TDs) and sophomore RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (891 yards, 9 TDs).

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Michigan.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Though it has not beaten the Buckeyes since 2003, Michigan still holds a 57-43-6 lead in the overall series.

2. This marks just the third time in series history that both teams have a first-year head coaches. New Ohio State coaches are 5-10-2 in their debuts against Michigan.

3. Ohio State had not lost back-to-back November games since 1999, when it dropped three straight to finish its last non-winning season at 6-6.

PREDICTION: Michigan 27, Ohio State 13. The Buckeyes' inability to move the ball, particularly on the road, will likely mean the end of their longest win streak against the Wolverines.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Auburn Tigers (+20.5, 47)

THE STORY: After winning a National Championship last season, Auburn has taken a bit of a step back in 2011. Still, Tigers fans will see the season as a great success if they can find a way to knock rival Alabama out of the BCS title game. Things are lined up perfectly for the Crimson Tide, who will are ranked second in the BCS standings and will likely lock up their spot in the National Championship Game with a win in the 76th Iron Bowl at Auburn on Saturday afternoon. The Crimson Tide came up just short, 28-27, in th Iron Bowl last season, surrendering a 24-point lead at home. This year’s edition of the Alabama defense is not likely to repeat that letdown. The Tigers are yielding more points than they have scored overall but still managed to be bowl eligible.

LINE: Alabama opened -21 and has been bet down slightly to -20.5.

ABOUT ALABAMA (10-1, 6-1 SEC): The Crimson Tide have spent the season shutting down everyone in their path, allowing an average of 8.4 points while leading the nation in both scoring and total defense. It came as a bit of a surprise last week when FCS school Georgia Southern rushed for 302 yards and scored a season-high 21 points against the Alabama defense. Trent Richardson made sure the Crimson Tide would not suffer an historic upset, padding his Heisman resume with 175 yards and three total touchdowns.

ABOUT AUBURN (7-4, 4-3): The Tigers have gotten crushed by the other top teams in the SEC this season, losing by a combined 128-31 to Arkansas, LSU and Georgia. Sophomore Clint Moseley has replaced junior Barrett Trotter at quarterback in the last four games and has had some success, throwing five touchdowns against two interceptions. His 167 yards in last week’s 35-16 win over Samford marked a career high.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Crimson Tide are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Richardson broke the Alabama record with his 20th rushing touchdown last week. He is three behind Tim Tebow’s SEC mark.

2. Alabama’s seniors have won a school-record 46 games.

3. The visiting team has won eight of the last 12 Iron Bowls, and 19 of the last 23 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less.

PREDICTION: Alabama 28, Auburn 10. The Crimson Tide defense will not have a problem with Moseley and the Tigers offense.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford (-7, 58.5)

THE STORY: Quarterback Andrew Luck tries to put a final stamp on his Heisman Trophy campaign when No. 5 Stanford hosts No. 24 Notre Dame on Saturday. Both teams are coming off closer-than-expected victories. Luck and the Cardinal kept their slim national championship hopes alive with a 31-28 victory over California last week, while the Fighting Irish extended their winning streak to four by edging Boston College 16-14.

LINE: The Cardinal opened as 6.5-point faves and have been bet up to a touchdown.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-3): The Fighting Irish have been carried in recent weeks by their ground game, but they took a hit last week when the team's No. 2 rusher, Jonas Gray (791 yards, 12 touchdowns), was lost for the season because of a knee injury. Junior running back Cierre Wood, who has gained 1,001 yards on the ground and 175 more on 25 receptions, will be counted on to carry more of the load. Mistakes have plagued the Irish, who rank second-to-last nationally in turnover margin (minus-1.09).

ABOUT STANFORD (10-1): The Cardinal boast the nation's most touted NFL prospect in Luck (2,937 yards passing, 31 touchdowns), who ranks fifth among FBS quarterbacks in passing efficiency, but their offense is far from a one-man show. Stanford averages 209 yards on the ground, led by junior Stepfan Taylor (1,035 yards, eight touchdowns). An underrated defense holds up its end, ranking fifth in rushing defense (93.4 yards) and 24th in total defense (333.45). Senior linebackers Chase Thomas has 14.5 tackles for a loss.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Stanford.
* Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Notre Dame leads the series 17-8, but has lost the last two meetings, including 37-14 at home last season. The Irish are 6-5 all-time at Stanford Stadium.

2. Stanford has won 22 of its last 25 home games dating back to the end of the 2007 season, with all of the losses coming in conference play.

3. Notre Dame senior safety Harrison Smith and junior linebacker Manti Te'o enter the game with 299 career tackles apiece, tied for 10th on the school's all-time list.

PREDICTION: Stanford 37, Notre Dame 34 - Though both defenses are improved this season, the series has been dominated by offensive fireworks in recent years and that trend figures to continue Saturday.