Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Auburn at Alabama
Another edition of the Iron Bowl will take place Saturday afternoon at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. If Auburn had won at Georgia two weeks ago, this game would’ve decided the SEC West. However, with starting QB Sean White playing with a shoulder injury and workhorse RB Kamryn Pettway sidelined with a hamstring injury, Georgia didn’t allow an Auburn first down in the second half en route to a 13-7 win as a 10-point home underdog.
Therefore, Auburn (8-3 straight up, 8-3 against the spread) is mostly playing the spoiler role, although an upset win would likely make it a favorite to garner a Sugar Bowl bid. Whatever the case, top-ranked and unbeaten Alabama was installed as a 17.5 or 18-point home favorite with a total of 47 as of late Friday afternoon. Auburn was +600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).
Alabama (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) has won its six home games while going 4-2 ATS. The Crimson Tide’s best wins this year have come vs. Southern Cal (52-6 at Jerry World), at Ole Miss (48-43 after trailing 24-3 in the second quarter), at Arkansas (49-30), at Tennessee (49-10), vs. Texas A&M (33-14 when the Aggies were unbeaten), at LSU (10-0) and vs. Mississippi State (51-3).
Alabama is led by a nasty defense that’s loaded with All-American candidates and future NFL players. The Tide is ranked second nationally in total defense, first against the run and second in scoring (11.4 PPG). Senior DE Jonathan Allen has recorded 46 tackles, two fumble returns for 105 yards and two TDs, 9.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 13 QB hurries, two passes broken up and one blocked field goal.
Alabama’s offense is as dynamic as even thanks to true freshman QB Jalen Hurts, who has added the scrambling dynamic to an offense that has typically used a pro-style signal caller. Hurts has completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 2,139 yards with an 18/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also run for 803 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.7 yards-per-carry average.
Alabama has one of the nation’s top WRs in sophomore Calvin Ridley, who has 56 receptions for 647 yards and seven TDs. ArDarius Stewart has 39 catches for 647 yards and six TDs.
Damien Harris has rushed for 850 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.4 YPC. Harris is a bruising between-the-tackles runner, while true freshman RB Joshua Jacobs is a speedster who has rushed for 484 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.7 YPC. Jacobs has 11 catches for 123 yards.
White did not play in last week’s 55-0 win over Alabama A&M as a 54-point home favorite. Jeremy Johnson got the starting nod and threw for 147 yards and one TD without an interception. Johnson also rushed for 42 yards and two TDs on just six carries.
White remains ‘questionable’ for Saturday. He injured the shoulder leading into a Nov. 5 home game vs. Vanderbilt. Prior to that game, White led the SEC in QB rating. He sat out the first half against the Commodores but with his team trailing 13-10 at halftime, White started the second half. He connected on 10-of-13 passes for 106 yards and one TD without an interception to spark AU to a 23-16 victory.
Facing Georgia in Athens the next week, White struggled mightily by completing only 6-of-20 throws for 27 yards with one interception. For the season, White has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,644 yards with a 9/3 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 148 yards and two TDs.
When Auburn was up 23-16 on Vandy late in the fourth quarter, Kamryn Pettway broke free what appeared to be a long TD run. However, he pulled his hamstring at about the 30 and was tracked down at about the 20. Pettway hasn’t touched the field since. Nevertheless, he is ‘probable’ and will start vs. Alabama, though Gus Malzahn indicated to the media that he might not be at 100 percent. Pettway has rushed for 1,106 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. His back-up, Kerryon Johnson, has run for 823 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.0 YPC average.
Auburn has been a road underdog eight times on Malzahn’s watch, posting a 4-4 spread record.
Alabama owns a 33-33 spread record as a home favorite during Nick Saban’s 10-year tenure.
The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for Auburn, 2-1 in its three road assignments. The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive AU games. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 48.4 points per game.
The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for the Tide, 5-1 in its home games. Alabama’s games have average combined scores of 51.6 PPG.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
Florida at Florida State
Florida (8-2 straight up, 4-5-1 against the spread) won the SEC East for a second straight season thanks to last week’s 16-10 win at LSU as a 13.5-point road underdog. The Gators gave up zero points on three of LSU’s red-zone trips, including the final one in the last minute. The Tigers had two shots at a touchdown from the 1-yard line, but they came up short both times including the final play of the game on fourth-and-goal. UF hooked up money-line backers with a payout in the +475 range.
After LSU’s holder on a short field goal bobbled the snap to ruin a scoring opportunity, UF took over at its own 2-yard line trailing 7-3 nearly midway through the third quarter, Austin Appleby was given plenty of time to throw out of his own end zone. The grad transfer from Purdue hit true freshman Tyrie Cleveland in stride near midfield. Cleveland shook off his defender and bolted to paydirt for a 98-yard TD catch.
With the game tied at 10-10 early in the fourth quarter, UF sophomore RB Jordan Scarlett went to work. He was unstoppable in the final stanza, rushing for most of his 108 yards to set up a pair of field goals from Eddy Pineiro, who went 3-for-3 with makes from 36, 26 and 34 yards out.
FSU (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won three in a row since dropping a 37-34 heartbreaker to Clemson at home on Oct. 29. Since then, the Seminoles rallied for a win at N.C. State (24-20) before spanking Boston College (45-7) at home and Syracuse (45-14) at the Carrier Dome.
FSU’s two other losses have come at Louisville (63-20) and vs. North Carolina (37-35) on a 54-yard walk-off field goal.
FSU is led by junior RB Dalvin Cook, who is sixth in the nation in rushing yards. Cook has run for 1,467 yards and 17 TDs while averaging 6.1 yards per carry. He has 27 catches for 400 yards and one TD.
FSU has found itself a quality starting QB in redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, who has completed 60.8 percent of his throws for 2,990 yards with a 17/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has run for three TDs.
Francois’s favorite target is Travis Rudolph, who has 49 receptions for 744 yards and six TDs. He is without one starting WR in Jesus ‘Bobo’ Wilson, who has missed the last four games and is out for the season after sustaining a foot injury. Wilson had 30 catches for 390 yards and two TDs before getting injured.
FSU has won three of its five home games while going 2-2 ATS. The ‘Noles are 1-2 ATS in three games as road favorites this year. During Jimbo Fisher’s seven-year tenure, his teams have compiled a 24-18-1 ATS mark in 43 games as a home ‘chalk.’
Florida will be without seven starters – QB Luke Del Rio, LB Jarrad Davis, safety Marcus Maye, safety Nick Washington, LB Alex Anzalone, center Cam Dillard and DE Bryan Cox Jr. Also, both starting guards could be missing. Martez Ivey is ‘doubtful’ and Tyler Jordan is ‘questionable.’
Florida has been a road underdog just three times during Jim McElwain’s tenure, going 1-1-1 ATS with one outright victory (last week at LSU).
Florida is ranked fourth in the nation in total defense and pass defense. The Gators are third in scoring defense, limiting foes to 13.0 PPG. This unit is without its top three tacklers, however, in Davis, Anzalone and Maye. Nevertheless, they feature the nation’s best combination of cover corners in Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson. Also, the defensive line remains loaded with big-time players like Caleb Brantley, CeCe Jefferson, Jordan Sherit and Joey Ivie.
Totals have been a wash for FSU overall (5-5) and at home (2-2). The Seminoles’ games have averaged a combined score of 61.1 points per game. They have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in their last seven contests.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight UF games to improve to 7-3 overall. The Gators have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their four true road assignments. They have watched their games average combined scores of 38.2 points per game.
FSU has won three in a row over UF, including last year’s 27-2 win at The Swamp as a 2.5-point road favorite. Cook ran for two fourth-quarter TDs and had at least 130 of his 183 rushing yards in the final stanza.
Florida’s last win in the rivalry came in 2012 when it smashed the ‘Noles by a 37-26 count as a seven-point road underdog.
Kickoff on ABC is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Easter at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Most books had Georgia favored by 4.5 points vs. Georgia Tech as of early Friday night. The Bulldogs have beaten the Yellow Jackets in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings, going 5-2 ATS during this span. UGA has won three in a row since losing to Florida, going 2-1 ATS. Ga. Tech is 14-11-1 ATS as a road underdog during Paul Johnson’s tenure, going 2-1 ATS in three such spots this year, including an outright win at Va. Tech.
Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog during Derek Mason’s three-year tenure. The Commodores are 7.5-point ‘dogs Saturday night vs. Tennessee for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick on The SEC Network. They are off a 38-17 win over Ole Miss as 9.5-point home puppies. Kyle Shurmur threw for 273 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Ralph Webb rushed for 123 yards and three TDs on 20 carries.
Tennessee gave up 740 yards of total offense in last week’s 63-37 win over Missouri. The Volunteers were fortunate to win the turnover battle 4-0 and they covered the number as 17.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Josh Dobbs threw for 223 yards and three TDs while also rushing for 190 yards and two TDs on 10 attempts.
Ole Miss is vying to get bowl eligible in the Egg Bowl vs. Mississippi State in Oxford. As of early Friday night, most spots had the Rebels favored by 8.5 points with a total of 69. The Bulldogs are off a 58-42 home loss to Arkansas. QB Nick Fitzgerald completed 23-of-33 passes for 328 yards and two TDs without an interception in the losing effort. Fitzgerald also rushed for 131 yards and four TDs on 17 carries.
Since taking over for the injured Chad Kelly, Ole Miss true freshman QB Shea Patterson has gone 1-1 in a pair of starts. Patterson has connected on 45-of-84 passes (53.6%) for 560 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 96 yards on 28 attempts.
Kentucky (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) is a 26-point underdog at Louisville. The Wildcats are bowl eligible for the first time during Mark Stoops’s tenure. They own an 8-9 spread record in 17 games as road ‘dogs on Stoops’s watch.
Week 13 Pointspread Picks and Predictions
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com
There’s a damn good reason why the Michigan-Ohio State total dropped from its opening price of 51.5 to 45.5 in such a short amount of time.
Sure, the cold temperatures (high of 45 degrees) and nine mile-per-hour winds may have something to do with the line movement, but this year’s installment of “The Game” features two of the country’s elite defenses, as Michigan enters the season finale ranked first in the country in both scoring defense (10.9 pts/gm) and total defense (246.0 yds/gm) while Ohio State ranks third in scoring defense (13.0 pts/gm) and fourth in total defense (280.0 yds/gm).
Additionally, you have to consider both game flow and situational analysis when analyzing the Michigan-Ohio State total. For starters, both programs are vying for a spot in college football’s four-team playoff, so don’t be surprised if the Wolverines and Buckeyes institute a cautious approach early in the game as they feel one another out. Think of this as a highly anticipated title fight between two skilled tacticians who use the early rounds as an opportunity to scout the opposition.
Granted, all relevant trends for this game point to an over, as Michigan has seen the over hit in six of its last seven road games and 12 of its last 15 outings following a win, while the over has cashed in four of Ohio State’s last five home dates.
But I believe those trends will prove meaningless come Saturday afternoon in Columbus.
Pick: UNDER 45.5
East Carolina Pirates at Temple Owls
Spread: Temple -20.5
Don’t look now, but the Owls are riding a five-game winning streak that has featured an average margin of victory of 18.0 points per game thanks to a stellar defensive unit that is surrendering an average of just 278.0 total yards (third in NCAA) and 18.5 total points per game (14th in NCAA) this season.
As it that wasn’t enough of a selling point, Matt Rhule’s upstart Temple program has covered the number in each of its last ten outings and is now 20-6 ATS over its last 26 games overall.
2016 hasn’t been kind to the Pirates of East Carolina, who have been shellacked by 21 or more points in each of their last three outings (at Tulsa, vs. SMU, vs. Navy) while failing to cover the number in eight of their last nine starts. Further, with just three total wins on the season, East Carolina is set to miss out on bowl season for the second straight year, so don’t be surprised if the Pirates have already checked out the remainder of their season.
Be advised that East Carolina is just 9-23 ATS over its last 32 games overall and 4-19 ATS over its last 23 conference showdowns, while Temple is a solid 5-0 ATS over its last five home dates and 23-8 ATS over its last 31 conference matchups.
Pick: Temple -20.5
Tennessee Volunteers at Vanderbilt Commodores
Spread: Tennessee -7.5
This game comes down to one critical factor: Motivation.
As it pertains to Tennessee, how much motivation will Butch Jones and company have to show up 100 percent prepared and ready to execute now that the Florida Gators have locked up the SEC East title?
In regards to Vanderbilt, Saturday evening marks the Commodores’ final opportunity to earn a bowl berth via a sixth victory, so expect a performance reminiscent of last week’s 38-17 upset win over Mississippi as 9.5-point underdogs when Vandy was in a similar must-win situation.
Be advised that Tennessee is just 7-21-1 ATS over its last 29 games following an ATS win while Vanderbilt is 14-6 ATS over its last 20 games played in the month of November. Additionally, take note that the home team is 4-1 ATS over the last five games played between these two programs.
Pick: Vanderbilt +7.5
Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars
Spread: BYU -18
This in-state rivalry has “Blowout” written all over it thanks to a variety of reasons. For starters, BYU has emerged victorious in six of its last seven outings and has been on cruise control during the month of November with wins over Cincinnati (20-3), Southern Utah (37-7) and Massachusetts (51-9), which moved the Cougars to 8-3 ATS on the season.
On the flip side, Utah State has dropped four straight contests and seven of its last eight matchups overall while failing to cover the number in each of its last six outings. To make matters worse for Aggies fans, Utah State’s five-year bowl streak has come to an end this season, so you can’t help but wonder how much gas this program has remaining in the tank with one final game left to play.
From a trends perspective, note that Utah State is just 1-7 ATS over its last eight road dates and 3-13 ATS over its last 16 games overall, while BYU is 8-3 ATS over its last 11 games overall and 10-4 ATS over its last 14 home games.
Pick: BYU -18
Last week: 1-3 ATS
Season: 26-22 ATS (.541)