Championship Saturday
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Even though we have a bunch of conference championship games this weekend, it’s likely that none of the results will matter and we‘ll have an Alabama-LSU rematch for the BCS title game. The one variable that could come into play is if Oklahoma State somehow wows the human vote, which consists of two-thirds of the BCS equation, with a big win against Oklahoma Saturday. Here’s a look at this weeks big games in college football:
SEC Championship - LSU -13 vs. Georgia: Even if Georgia wins, LSU shouldn’t fall too far just because of what they‘ve done all season. They have beaten three teams that were ranked in the top-3 this season, including the current No. 2 team, Alabama, on their home field. No voter could justify putting any one-loss team above them. Despite this game being played in Georgia’s backyard, the cushion LSU knows they have should take some of the ’win-or-else’ pressure off them and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a 30-point win.
Big-12 Championship - Oklahoma State -3½ vs. Oklahoma: This is the first year that the Big-12 doesn’t have an official championship game. This game has some of it’s luster taken away with the Cowboys losing to Iowa State two weeks ago, but it’s still a big game. Oklahoma State has to hope they win big and voters don’t want to see an all SEC matchup for the title game. However, the decision won’t be a difficult one to make after the Sooners win outright.
PAC-12 Championship - Oregon -31 vs. UCLA: What kind of championship game features two teams where the spread is -30 or higher? UCLA backs into the game by default because of how bad Utah and Arizona State were down the stretch, and most notably, because USC in ineligible to represent the South division. The bad news for UCLA is that this game is being played in Eugene and not on a neutral site. UCLA’s last three road games have seen them outscored 129-18. Look for the trend to continue here with an embarrassing loss by UCLA which will take them to 6-7 on the year.
ACC Championship - Virginia Tech -7 vs. Clemson: This game not only impacts Virginia Tech and Clemson’s chance at getting into a BCS bowl, but Stanford’s as well. Stanford passed Virginia Tech in the latest BCS poll to move into No. 4 which guarantees them a BCS bowl bid. Should the Hokies win impressively while Stanford is idle, they could vault past and possibly leave the Cardinal high and dry out of the BCS mix. As for the game, Virginia Tech gets to avenge their only loss of the season. Clemson won 23-3 at Blacksburg in October, but have been stumbling lately losing three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the Hokies have turned it up a notch and look like one of the best teams to come out of the ACC in recent years having won seven in a row since that loss. They have a great mixture of run and pass on offense to go along with their always tough defense. It should be a long night for Clemson.
Big-10 Championship - Wisconsin -10 vs. Michigan State: The Badgers get a chance to avenge one of their two last-second losses of the season this week at Indianapolis against Michigan State. Both Wisconsin losses came on the road, a place where they have look far different than the one that murders teams in Madison. Against-the-spread, Wisconsin was 0-4 in road games this season while going 7-0-1 at home. Michigan State has reeled off four wins in a row and should be able to hang around in this game and maybe pull off the upset. The loser of this game will find themselves out of the BCS Bowl mix with Michigan and their great traveling party being attractive, but Michigan has to remain with the BCS top-14 to get the invite.
C-USA Championship - Houston -13½ vs. Southern Miss: One of the two undefeated teams in the country hasn’t gotten much press of any kind because we’ve all had it beaten into our heads that small conferences don’t matter because of who they play. Last week, Houston handled what was perceived to be tough competition against Tulsa, pounding them 48-16. Should they win this game, they’ll be looking at a bid to the BCS Sugar Bowl against Michigan. And should they beat Michigan and one-loss Alabama beats LSU, they still won’t get any love in the polls.
Heisman Odds
I am surprised we didn’t see any sports books post the Heisman odds due to Nevada Gaming Control Board’s willingness to listen to proposals on voted upon propositions. Gaming requires that the process of how a winner is determined be sent in for approval. With all the writers and past Heisman members having a vote, it would seem simpler than the process probably is. Anyway, here’s a look at the top contenders with odds:
1) Trent Richardson, Alabama -120: I can see the SEC media machine churning, especially after Richardson’s big 203-yard game against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. On the season he’s averaged six yards-a-carry with 20 TD’s. He wouldn’t be my choice to win, but the media backing and support of him can’t be denied in the odds.
2) Andrew Luck, Stanford 3/2: He’s been the favorite all season, but after losing to Oregon the steam on his campaign has run dry. He looks like the best player in the country to me, but what do I know? He’s completed 70% of his passes and has tossed 35 TD’s to only 9 interceptions.
3) Case Keenum, Houston 10/1: Just like his team, he’s got the weight of being from a small conference on his shoulders. Since when did playing in the best conference determine who was the best player? When I look at Keenum, I see the best stats. He’s completed 73% of his passes for 43 TD’s and only three interceptions. That’s three interceptions, all season while throwing for 4,726 yards! He’s a long shot, but one that a great case could be made for.
4) Robert Griffin, Baylor 15/1: Getting knocked out of the game last week may have hurt his chances of making an appearance at the downtown athletic club in New York, but he has a couple of the most exciting games of the college football season under his belt to go along with great stats. He’s completed 72% of his passes for 34 TD’s and only five interceptions.
5) Matt Barkley, USC 25/1: He shredded UCLA last week with six TD passes giving him 39 for the season. Should he stay another year, he’ll be the favorite win next season, but that is unlikely. He looks like the better pro prospect between he and Luck.
College Football Super System
By Robbie Gainous
As November gives way to December, the college football regular season is closing in on the finish line and the chill in the air may not be weather related as the BCS Standings leave several one-loss teams out in the cold while it warms to two teams from the same conference.
This week’s database research focused on schools playing in their final regular season games. Each college team has different motivating factors this time of year as some are fighting for their conference title, bowl invitations and a few for a national championship. Here we examine college teams playing their final home game of the season.
Team schedules are a gold mine when researching situations in an effort to beat the point spread. We wanted to know how teams fared in their final home game if they had been playing games on the road for an extended period. Would they be motivated to end the regular season on a high note or would the fact that they had been away for so long leave them physically, emotionally and mentally drained.
SYSTEM: In its Final Home Game, play AGAINST a team (not an underdog of 30+ points) off a Saturday road/neutral site contest in its last game and three road/neutral site games before that. Playing against these home teams has produced a record of 13-0 ATS since 1980 covering the spread by 13.8 points per game.
Our System has only been active thirteen times since 1980. We have to go back to November 29, 2008 for the last active date. That week Georgia was active in the system as an 8-point favorite over Georgia Tech and they lost straight up 45 to 42 giving our system its thirteenth victory. You have to go back to 2004 for the next time the system was active and Georgia who was active in the system once again as a 15-point favorite versus Georgia Tech. Georgia won the game 19 to 13 but failed to cover the spread.
The system is active this week as the Cincinnati Bearcats qualify in their game versus the Connecticut Huskies on Saturday. Cincinnati is coming off four road games and one neutral site game sandwiched in-between those contests when they faced West Virginia at Paul Brown Stadium back on November 12. Connecticut is coming off a home victory over Rutgers last week and that was the final game of a three-game home stand for the Huskies.
With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies a play AGAINST the Cincinnati Bearcats on Saturday. We want to play ON the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES plus the points over the Bearcats.
College Notebook Week 14
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Akron...After a desultory 1-11 campaign, the Zips have dismissed HC Rob Ianello after just two years on the job. Rumored replacements include the past two Ohio State head coaches, Jim Tressel and Luke Fickell, the latter on the job on an interim basis for the Buckeyes this season.
Arizona...Wildcats have hired former West Virginia and Michigan HC Rich Rodriguez to the same position beginning in 2012.
Arizona State...Veteran HC Dennis Erickson has been relieved of duties after Sun Devils lost their last four games (all as favorites) to finish 6-6 for the second straight year. Erickson had not finished above .500 at ASU since his first season (2007). Reported candidates in the queue at Tempe are Houston HC Kevin Sumlin, Southern Miss HC Larry Fedora, Eastern Michigan HC Ron English, Tennessee d.c. Justin Wilcox, Wisconsin o.c. Paul Chryst, and former head coaches Mike Leach (Texas Tech) and Mike Bellotti (Oregon).
Baylor...QB RG III suffered a scary head/neck injury when pounded to the artificial surface at Arlington late in 2nd Q vs. Texas Tech last Saturday. Griffin didn't return to action but Bears continued to pile on the points behind backup QB Nick Florence, a former starter in 2009 when Griffin was sidelined, and a possible redshirt candidate. But Florence passed for 151 yards in relief and two TDs vs. Red Raiders. Check Griffin's status for Texas this week.
BYU...Cougars might be minus sr. QB Riley Nelson (ribs) again this week at Hawaii, although former starter Jake Heaps has filled in admirably since Nelson was injured.
Colorado State...QB Pete Thomas (knee) missed last week's game vs. Air Force and is ‘questionable’ for Border War finale vs. Wyoming. Frosh Garrett Grayson was erratic in relief vs. Falcons, passing for only 125 yards with a costly endzone pick in 45-21 loss.
Florida...QB John Brantley was KO'd with an apparent concussion in 2nd half last Saturday vs. Florida State after enduring a brutal evening, suffering 3 picks. Backup Jacoby Brissett threw another for the final Seminoles' TD in 21-7 FSU win. Status unknown for Gators' bowl game. LB Darrin Kitchens was also carried off the field on a stretcher after second half kickoff.
Georgia...Frosh star RB Isaiah Crowell sat out Saturday's 31-17 won over Georgia Tech with an ankle injury, check status for upcoming SEC title tilt vs. LSU.
Illinois...HC Ron Zook was relived of duties after Fighting Illini concluded their season with a sixth-straight loss, a listless 27-7 surrender at Minnesota. Illinois had begun the season with six straight wins. Potential successors being mentioned include Cincinnati HC Butch Jones (who was hired for Bearcat job by new Illinois AD Mike Thomas), Toledo HC Tim Beckman, Houston HC Kevin Sumlin, Northern Illinois HC Dave Doeren, Iowa STate HC Paul Rhoads, Western Kentucky HC Willie Taggart, and Eastern Michigan HC Ron English.
Iowa State...WR Josh Lenz, Cyclones' second leading receiver with 34 catches, is ‘questionable’ for Kansas State finale after missing last week's Oklahoma game with leg injury. ISU "O" gained a season-low 245 yards in 26-6 loss at Norman played in howling wind conditions.
Kansas...HC Turner Gill was dismissed after season-ending 24-10 loss to Missouri at Kansas City. Gill's 2-year mark was 5-19. Rumored in the queue to succeed GIll in Lawrence are former Texas Tech HC Mike Leach, Air Force HC Troy Calhoun, Oklahoma d.c. Brent Venables, and Florida State d.c. Mark Stoops.
Kentucky...Cats aren’t bowling but they nonetheless ended 26-game losing streak vs. hated Tennessee in 10-7 win last Saturday at Lexington. WR/QB Matt Roark was summoned to QB duties due to injuries to Maxwell Smith and Morgan Newton and did just enough, rushing for 124 yards and passing for only 15 in tedious win. Result was important for 2nd-year HC Joker Phillips, who was feeling heat from Cat backers after UK had already been eliminated form bowl consideration for the first time since 2005. Joker's contract was also recently extended by AD Mitch Barnhart.
Memphis...Tigers have pulled the plug on HC Larry Porter after just two years on the job in which Tigers recorded a poor 3-21 mark. Potential successors include Arkansas State HC Hugh Freeze, UL-Lafayette HC Mark Hudspeth, North Alabama (and former Auburn) HC Terry Bowden, and former Tulane and Clemson HC Tommy Bowden, who was considered for the job two years ago when Porter was initially hired.
Nevada...Leading rusher Mike Ball (704 YR and 5.2 ypc) was dismissed from Wolf Pack by HC Chris Ault prior to last week's 21-17 loss at Utah State. Nevada does not miss Ball with drop-off to Lampford Mark (111 YR at Utah State) and Stefphon Jefferson negligible, but electric RS frosh QB Cody Fajordo's loss to an ankle injury in 3rd Q at Logan was a bit more costly. Senior QB Tyler Lantrip finished the game at USU, but his fumble at the Aggie 11-yard-line in the closing minutes proved costly for Nevada. Pack concludes its regular season on Saturday vs. Idaho at Reno.
New Mexico State...QB Matt Christian missed last week's 44-0 debacle at La Tech with a hip injury, with backup Travaughn Colwell going the whole way at Ruston, throwing 3 picks in Aggies' second straight lopsided loss (42-7 week before at BYU). NMSU closes season at home on Saturday vs. Utah State in the all-Aggie battle.
Notre Dame...RB Jonas Gray (791 YR, 6.9 ypc, 12 TDs) missed last week's 28-14 ND loss at Stanford with a knee injury and is also out for Irish's upcoming bowl date, likely at the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando. Gray had a chance to join Cierre Wood as a rare pair of 1000-yard rushers for Irish.
Oregon...RB LaMichael James suffered another elbow injury last Saturday vs. Oregon State) the other elbow from previous injury suffered in October vs. Cal) after rushing for 142 yards against Beavers, but is expected to be available for Friday's Pac-12 title game vs. UCLA. Deep stable of Duck runners has not skipped a beat in James' absences this season (Kenjon Barner 830 YR and 6.5 ypc and frosh De'Anthony Thomas 8.3 ypc).
Pitt...Top Panther WR Devin Street (43 catches TY) is listed as ‘questionable’ for this week's Syracuse finale with an undisclosed injury.
South Florida...Bulls need a win over West Virginia this Thursday to get bowl-eligible, a hard-to-imagine thought after USF opened 4-0 in September. QB B.J. Daniels missed last week's 34-24 loss to Louisville with shoulder problems and is ‘questionable’ for Mountaineers; if he can't go then jr. Bobby Eveld (1 TD and 4 picks in 2011) gets his second straight start.
Texas...Horns' true frosh offensive weapons RB Malcolm Brown & WR Jaxon Shipley were back in action last Thursday at Texas A&M after missing several recent games due to injuries. Brown led Horn rushers with 39 yards and Shipley caught 3 passes in 27-25 Texas thrill win that was very important to keep heat from mounting further on HC Mack Brown, rumored to be under the gun in Austin. Horns conclude regular season this week vs. Baylor.
Toledo...QB Austin Dantin (concussion) missed last week's game at Ball State, but it didn't hurt Rockets as QB "1-B" Terrance Owens passed for 4 TDs at Muncie. Dantin will likely be available for Toledo's bowl game, expected to be Little Caesar's at Detroit on Dec. 27.
UAB...Neil Callaway's 5-year run as Blazers coach has ended as he resigned under pressure after season-ending 38-35 loss at Florida Atlantic (Owls' first win of season). UAB is reportedly considering some veteran former coaches to succeed Callaway, including Tommy Bowden (ex-Clemson and Tulane), Jeff Bower (ex-Southern Miss), and Phil Fulmer (ex-Tennessee).
UCLA...Rick Neuheisel is out as UCLA's coach after last week's 50-0 humiliation at hands of rival Southern Cal, which beat Neuheisel each of the past four years by an aggregate 134-28 score. Neuheisel will be allowed to coach the Pac-12 title game at Oregon, but o.c. Mike Johnson would lead the Bruins should they play in a bowl game. UCLA AD Dan Guerrero, responsible for blowing the last two Bruin football hires (Karl Dorrell and Neuheisel), apparently gets another shot to get it right. Although some are pushing hard for former Texas Tech HC Mike Leach to receive consideration, early word from Westwood is that Guerrero has instead targeted Cincinnati HC Butch Jones, Boise HC Chris Petersen, and Houston HC Kevin Sumlin, although few believe the latter two would be interested, and Jones is mentioned as the front-runner for the Illinois opening. Other names who could enter the UCLA are a pair of former Bruin assistants, DeWayne Walker (former UCLA d.c. and current New Mexico State HC) and Tom Cable (former Bruin o.c., Idaho and Oakland Raiders HC, now Seattle Seahawks o.c.), Wyoming's Dave Christensen, and Eastern Michigan's Ron English.
UNLV...QB Caleb Herring went out with shoulder injury late in 4th Q of UNLV's 31-14 loss to San Diego State last week. Rebs, who led 14-0 in early going, were unable to mount a late drive after Herring's injury, then saw a punt blocked which led to Aztecs' final TD on a short Ronnie Hillman run. Herring's backup Sean Reilly could not ignite a late rally promptly tossed a pick on his second attempt. Check Herrring's status for this week's finale at TCU.
Utah...Utes lost bulwark of offense, RB John White (1405 YR), with ankle injury in first half of last Friday's bitter 17-14 loss to Colorado which ended up costing Utes a chance to represent Pac-12 South in conference title game at Oregon. Check's White's status for bowl game, although Utes have a serviceable backup RB in Tauni Vakapuna (77 YR vs. Buffs). Utah PK Coleman Peterson missed three field goals to help scuttle Utes against CU.
Western Michigan...QB Alex Carder missed reg.-season fin ale vs. Akron due to shoulder injury, but bowl-bound Broncos weren't slowed a bit as backup Tyler VanTubbergren completed 19 of 21 passes for 6 TDs and ran for another score in WMU's 68-19 romp!
Big Ten Championship
Asawins.com
The inaugural Big Ten Championship features a rematch of what could be the game of the year in College Football so far. In the first meeting, with the game tied at 31, MSU scored on a 44-yard Hail Mary as time expired to get the six-point victory over Wisconsin. This game featured everything: lead changes, special teams’ touchdowns, defensive scores, injuries to key players, and a dramatic finish. What will round two bring? Let's take a closer look at the matchup.
Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers (-10) vs. Michigan State Spartans
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
TV/Time: (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Betting Notes: Michigan State covered the first meeting as a seven point home underdog. Wisconsin opened as an 8.5 point favorite for this meeting and that number quickly rose to 10 before closing at 7.
Wisconsin’s Offense vs. Michigan State’s Defense:
As a whole, Wisconsin has one of the most dynamic offenses in the nation. This unit averages 477 yards per game (12th) and 44.8 points per game (4th). It has scored over 42 points in eight of 12 games this season and hasn’t scored fewer than 28 in a game. Wisconsin has arguably the top two offensive players in the Big Ten in its backfield with quarterback Russell Wilson and running back Montee Ball. Wilson leads the FBS in quarterback rating (192.9), is 5th in completion percentage (72.7%) and has 28 touchdowns compared to just 3 interceptions. RB Ball is 2nd in the nation in yards with 1,622 (6.5 YPC) and leads the nation with 34 touchdowns – an astonishing 17.2 points per game by himself!
Michigan State’s defense ranks 3rd nationally in total defense, allowing just 267 yards per game. Opponents have scored just eight rushing touchdowns and are averaging a measly 2.9 yards per carry (just 103 rush yards per game allowed). The Spartans are 2nd nationally in sacks and 10th in interceptions and opposing quarterbacks are completing just 52% against this stop-unit.
Something to consider: In the first meeting, Wilson had his “worst” game as a Badger. He threw for 223 yards and had three total touchdowns, but had two costly interceptions. Still, he led the Badgers on two 4th quarter touchdown drives to tie the game at 31. Ball had to briefly leave the game with an injury, but was still able to total 139 yards and two touchdowns. MSU’s defense allowed 220 rushing yards, 443 total yards, and 31 points – all season-highs for this defense. In addition to picking off two Wisconsin passes, the Spartans forced a safety and were fortuitous on special teams, blocking a punt and recovering it for a touchdown.
Michigan State’s offense vs. Wisconsin’s defense:
Michigan State doesn’t have the juggernaut offense that Wisconsin has, but it’s still a formidable unit with an experienced quarterback at the helm. QB Kirk Cousins averaged 228 pass yards per game (64%) with 21 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The running attack never got going behind a rebuilt offensive line, and ranked dead last in the Big Ten at just 139 rush yards per game (3.9 YPC). Although it did gain some steam with 601 yards (4.4 YPC) and 7 touchdowns during the four game win streak to close out the season.
Wisconsin’s offense gets most of the attention, but this defense was quietly one of the better units in the nation. The Badgers rank 7th nationally in total defense (278 yards per game) and 5th in points per game allowed (15.2). Wisconsin also ranks third nationally against the pass and has allowed a Big Ten best nine touchdown passes this season.
Something to consider: Wisconsin’s defense held Sparty to 109 rush yards on 32 carries (3.4 YPC) in the first meeting, but the 37 points allowed to MSU was the most points that Wisconsin allowed all season. Michigan State scored touchdowns on a double-reverse, a 4th down pass, and a Hail Mary. As noted above, Wisconsin has allowed just nine TD passes all season, but three of those were by MSU QB Cousins. Cousins completed 22-of-31 passes for 290 yards and three scores with no interceptions.
Intangibles/Special teams:
Wisconsin is second to last in the Big Ten in kickoff coverage and has had two punts blocked for touchdowns this season. MSU leads the Big Ten with two punt returns for touchdown and three interception returns for touchdown. Wisconsin converts on a Big Ten best 55% of third downs (3rd best in FBS) while MSU is tops in Big Ten in limiting 3rd down conversions (33% against). Wisconsin has committed just eight turnovers all season (Big Ten best +14 ratio) and has scored on 62 of 65 trips to the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 56 of those 65 trips.
Betting Trends
Michigan State
-- 7-2 ATS its last nine Big Ten games
-- 5-11 last 16 games as an underdog
-- 0-4 last four neutral site games
Wisconsin
-- 14-4-1 ATS last 19 games overall
-- 11-4-1 ATS last 16 as a favorite
-- 10-4 ATS last 14 Big Ten games
Head-to-Head
-- These two finished OVER in eight of the last nine meetings
-- The home team is 5-2 ATS
-- The underdog is 5-1 ATS
College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 14
By Adam Thompson
Covers.com
UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks (-31.5, 65.5)
Why UCLA will cover: The Bruins average 193 ypg rushing, and will try to shorten the game.
Why Oregon will cover: UCLA has scored six points or less in three straight. The Bruins will have to score a lot more than that to cover. UCLA is 2-6 ATS against opponents with a winning record.
Points: UCLA’s offense has been dreadful, though Oregon can get to 50 in a blink.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Houston Cougars (-13, 71.5)
Why Southern Miss will cover: The Eagles can move the ball through the air and on the ground, and Houston’s defense isn’t superb. Southern Miss is 7-2-1 ATS in its last eight, and is excited to play a spoiler role.
Why Houston will cover: Is USM’s 55th-ranked pass defense good enough to slow down the No. 1 passing and scoring offense? Probably not.
Points: The over is 3-1 in USM’s last four, and this is the second-lowest over/under number for a Houston game since Sept. 29.
Connecticut Huskies at Cincinnati Bearcats (-10, 49)
Why Connecticut will cover: UConn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 conference games, while Cincy is only 4-12 in its last 16. The Huskies’ third-ranked run defense matches up well with what the Bearcats want to do.
Why Cincinnati will cover: A new QB hasn’t slowed the Cincy offense. The defense should punish Connecticut’s struggling run game.
Points: The under has hit in Cincy’s last four, and has missed in UConn’s last four.
Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas State Wildcats (-10.5, 54)
Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones, after a bad start, are 4-1 ATS in the last five. If ISU can get going on the ground, that opens things up for the rest of the offense.
Why Kansas State will cover: K-State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10. The Wildcats’ balanced attack on offense may overwhelm an ISU defense that isn’t great at stopping anything.
Points: The under is 5-0 in ISU’s last five, but is 1-5 in KSU’s last six.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs (-38.5, 58)
Why UNLV will cover: The Rebels need to sap some clock with its No. 45 run game and hope that time runs quickly, or hope TCU rests some starters in the second half.
Why TCU will cover: This is the third-largest spread TCU has faced this season. It hit on the other two. The Rebels are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records.
Points: The over is 11-4 in TCU’s last 15.
Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears (-2.5, 64)
Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns’ defense has improved all season, while the offense should be fired up to face Baylor’s D, which ranks in the bottom 20 in every statistical category.
Why Baylor will cover: Texas is 96th in passing, which should help Baylor’s maligned defense. QB Robert Griffin III is back from a concussion.
Points: The over is 6-0 in Baylor home games, though the under is 4-1-1 in Texas’ last six.
LSU Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (13.5, 46)
Why LSU will cover: LSU is 7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The second-ranked defense has smothered much better offenses than the Bulldogs.
Why Georgia will cover: LSU’s defense gets the headlines, but Georgia’s is no slouch, ranking No. 6 against the run, No. 12 vs. the pass and No. 10 in points allowed. And its offense can do everything effectively. Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 overall.
Points: Strong defenses that have led the teams this far. That isn’t likely to change now.
New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos (-48.5, 61)
Why New Mexico will cover: Boise State is 0-5 ATS in its last five, while UNM is 3-0 ATS in its last three and has found a run defense. Against anybody, that’s a mighty spread.
Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos may be struggling down the stretch, but the Lobos rank 120th offensively and 119th defensively in scoring. They are, statistically speaking, the absolute worst team in the nation.
Points: The under is 4-0 in UNM’s last four, but the over is 6-1 in Boise State’s last seven.
Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 74)
Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma’s offense is nearly as strong as OSU’s, but the defense ranks about 60 spots higher in points allowed and rush defense. After a seven-win streak ATS, Okie State is 1-2 of late.
Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU’s second-ranked passing and scoring offense matches up very well against the 87th-ranked pass defense of OU. The Cowboys are 6-2-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 in this rivalry.
Points: The teams combine to average 93 points per game, which makes this mark look low.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Clemson Tigers (7, 52.5)
Why Virginia Tech will cover: Tech’s eighth-ranked defense has allowed more than 21 points just once in the last six weeks. Clemson is 0-4 ATS in its last four. The Hokies’ strong run game matches up well against the Tigers’ shaky run defense.
Why Clemson will cover: VT is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11, while Clemson is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 conference games. Clemson’s passing game remains strong.
Points: The under has been the trend for both teams the last month.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, 54.5)
Why Michigan State will cover: MSU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine thanks to a defense that ranks in the top 11 across the board. Sparty already beat Bucky once, albeit on a Hail Mary.
Why Wisconsin will cover: MSU can throw the ball, but doesn’t have a run game to complement it. Wisconsin ranks No. 3 in slowing the pass, and the Badgers’ offense, which averages 230 ypg passing and 247 ypg rushing, is on a roll.
Points: The over is 7-2 in UW’s last nine and is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
Teams potentially playing for exercise
Sportsmemo.com
The final week of the college football regular season and we take a look at those teams in "playing for exercise" situations. Note that final games (especially at home) can sometimes provide a boost in effort. Also factor in the inflated pointspreads with many of these games projected to be significant mismatches.
UNLV +38.5 at TCU - The Rebels have been halfway competitive at home with wins over Colorado State and Hawaii. They also were tied with San Diego State last week in the third quarter only to allowed 17 unanswered points and miss out on the pointspread cover (+16.5). But back on the road however, where they are on an 11-37 ATS run, it is hard to imagine much of an effort. TCU can clinch the Mountain West title with a win so the Horned Frogs will be at least somewhat motivated. TCU has won the last three games in the series by scores of 48-6, 41-0 and 44-14.
Idaho +20 at Nevada - The Vandals may have given their best effort of the season last week in a demoralizing 49-42 OT home loss to Utah State. Concerns here though for the home side as Nevada saw its WAC title hopes come crashing down with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Louisiana Tech and Utah State. At 6-5, a win here would likely ensure the Wolf Pack will head to the postseason.
BYU -7.5 at Hawaii - BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall doesn't seem very excited about the concept of a 13-game schedule – the last of which at Hawaii. Hawaii is 6-6 and needs a win to ensure they get to play in the Hawaii Bowl.
New Mexico +48.5 at Boise State - Apparently Boise State still has a shot at the BCS, even though TCU is likely to win the Mountain West (needs a win over UNLV). New Mexico is obviously eager to get the Bob Davie era underway.
New Mexico State +13.5 vs. Utah State - The Aggies (4-8) were alive for the postseason a few weeks ago but lost to Louisiana Tech and BYU by a combined score of 86-7. Utah State however may be in a bit of a flat spot after last week's overtime win over Idaho made the Aggies bowl eligible for the first time since 1997.
Fresno State +8 at San Diego State - Pat Hill is feeling the heat for this year's slide (4-8). He said the program needs major changes regardless of whether he is there or not next year.
The entire Sun Belt - Arkansas State needs a win to own the outright Sun Belt title though note that the Red Wolves have already accepted a bowl invitation (GoDaddy.com). They play host to 3-8 Troy who is unquestionably looking forward to the offseason. Neither MTSU nor North Texas can make the postseason which makes Saturday's game in Denton pointless for both sides. And Florida Atlantic finally won a game last week all but setting up a tank job against UL-Monroe Saturday.
Championship Week NCAA-F Trends & Angles
Insiderangles.com
Well, this is Championship Week in NCAA Football, so we will look at all the conference championship games from a trend perspective. Note that all trends included within the championship games are based on post-season records (conference championships and bowl games) since the 2000 season.
Conference-USA Championship
Houston (-12½) vs. Southern Miss: The overall performance of Conference USA during the post-season has been very nondescript, as the conference is 32-33-2 ATS overall since 2000. However, that all changes when you look at double-digit spreads as Conference USA double-digit underdogs are 7-2-1 ATS while the conference's double-digit favorites are 0-2 ATS. So with that in mind, the trends point to Southern Miss +12½
SEC Championship
LSU (-13½) vs. Georgia: As you might expect, the SEC has been a great bet during the post-season since 2000, going 56-47-5, 54.4 percent overall. It has performed better as an underdog though, going 24-18-1, 57.1 percent ATS in that role as opposed to 32-29-4, 52.5 percent as a favorite. Besides the trends in this game, it is debatable whether or not LSU will give a full effort from start to finish, considering that the Tigers are more than likely already locked into the National Championship Game vs. fellow SEC member Alabama even if they lose this game.The Trends side with the 57.1 percent SEC dog angle here. Georgia +13½ (you can afford to wait here as +14½ could be right around the corner).
ACC Championship
Virginia Tech (-7) vs. Clemson: ACC teams have been very predicable in the post-season since 2000, as they are only 27-30 ATS as favorites but a fantastic 30-14-1, 68.2 percent as underdogs! Now we get that the ACC is in a down period right now, but even during these lean times, ACC post-season underdogs are 10-6, 62.5 percent ATS the last three years. Finally, on the two occasions that the ACC Championship has been a regular season rematch, the team that won the regular season meeting covered the spread in the rematch. Clemson upset the Hokies in Blacksburg this season.
Big Ten Championship
Wisconsin (-9½) vs. Michigan State: The ACC has been similar to the ACC during the post-season since 2000 in that underdogs have performed well while favorites have not, except that the difference has been much more pronounced. Big Ten favorites have gone a wretched 9-18, 33.3 percent ATS the last 11 post-seasons, while Big Ten dogs have gone 35-26-1, 57.4 percent ATS. The trends indicate Michigan State +9½
SEC Championship Game
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
The top-ranked LSU Tigers will try to stay unbeaten Saturday afternoon at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta where they will take on Georgia in the SEC Championship Game at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.
As of Friday night, most betting shops had LSU (12-0 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) installed as a 13½-point favorite with a total of 46½. The Bulldogs are plus-450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).
Mark Richt’s team won the SEC East for the first time since 2005 thanks to 10 consecutive wins following a 0-2 start. The season started for UGA at this venue where Boise St. rolled to a 35-21 win as a three-point ‘chalk.’
But the Dawgs were back in Atlanta last weekend, cruising to a 31-17 win over Ga. Tech as five-point road favorites. UGA sophomore quarterback Aaron Murray threw for 252 yards and four touchdowns.
For the season, Murray has connected on 61.0 percent of his throws for 2,698 yards with a 32/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Murray’s favorite target has been former Tampa Plant High School teammate Orson Charles, who is one of the SEC’s best tight ends with 40 receptions for 530 yards and five TDs.
Georgia will need to have offensive balance to have a chance at pulling the upset, but its leading rusher Isaiah Crowell has barely touched the field the last two weeks. The freshman from Columbus sprained his ankle in the first quarter of a 19-10 home win over Kentucky two weeks ago. He sat out in the win over the Yellow Jackets, but he’s expected to be in the starting lineup Saturday afternoon.
With the exception of its 9-6 win at Alabama in overtime, LSU has won all of its games by 13 points or more. The Tigers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six double-digit ‘chalk’ situations. The lone non-cover was when they were laying 42 points to Western Kentucky the week after their emotional win in Tuscaloosa.
In last Friday afternoon’s showdown against Arkansas in Baton Rouge, Les Miles’s team fell behind by a 14-0 score in the first quarter. However, thanks to the play of QB Jordan Jefferson, WR Rueben Randle and the running combination of Kenny Hilliard and Michael Ford, not to mention a 92-yard punt return for a TD by Tyrann Mathieu, LSU scored 21 unanswered points.
Bobby Petrino’s squad pulled to within 21-17 with a field goal midway through the third quarter, but LSU would finish the game on a 20-0 run to collect a 41-17 victory as a 10½-point home ‘chalk.’ Hilliard rushed for a team-high 102 yards and Ford had 96 rushing yards on just 11 carries.
Jefferson has resumed his duties as the starting QB in the last three games after Jarrett Lee filled in admirably in September and October. He brings a running dimension to the offense that Lee, a pure pocket passer, didn’t bring to the table. And Jefferson’s throwing looked sharp against the Razorbacks.
I’ve heard some talk this week that LSU might be looking ahead to facing Alabama in the BCS Championship Game and, therefore, won’t have anything to play for against the Bulldogs. But I don’t believe there’s any validity to that notion.
I’ve been to more than a half-dozen SEC title games and the atmosphere is absolutely electric. It’s inconceivable for college football players to not be fired up to play in this type of environment.
Also, I don’t believe bettors should think of this as a road game for LSU because UGA is only 66 miles from its campus. The Tigers are given just as many tickets and they travel well, so the Bulldogs won’t have a considerable advantage in terms of the crowd.
Georgia hasn’t been a double-digit underdog since facing the 2009 Gators in Jacksonville. On that day, UF spanked the Dawgs 41-17 as a 14 1/2-point favorite. In two previous double-digit ‘dog situations in 2006, UGA went 2-0 ATS and won outright by a 37-15 score at Auburn as an 11½-point puppy.
UGA has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against LSU, including a 34-14 win in the 2005 SEC title game. However, the Tigers prevailed in the last encounter, winning a 20-13 decision in Athens in 2009. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these long-time rivals.
NCAAF Championship Saturday: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Houston Cougars (-14, 72)
THE STORY: Led by record-setting quarterback Case Keenum, No. 6 Houston can become the first Conference USA team to earn a BCS bowl berth if it can beat No. 23 Southern Miss in the conference championship game. The West Division champion Cougars are making their third C-USA title game appearance, having won at home in 2006 and lost at East Carolina in 2009. The East Division champion Golden Eagles are seeking their first conference title since 2003. Southern Miss leads the all-time series 8-5, including a 59-41 home win last season.
LINE: Houston opened at -13 and has been bet up to a two-touchdown favorite. The total has climbed from 71.5 to 72.
ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS (10-2, 6-2 C-USA, 7-4-1 ATS): The Golden Eagles won 10 games for the first time in 23 years and just the third time in school history. Senior QB Austin Davis needs 77 yards to break his own school record for single-season passing. He set the current mark of 3,128 as a freshman. Running back Jamal Woodyard is averaging 6.4 yards a carry. Southern Miss ranks second in the conference in scoring (36.9) and points allowed (20.5). If the game is close, kicker Danny Hrappman could make the difference; he’s made 11 of his last 12 field goals.
ABOUT HOUSTON (12-0, 8-0 C-USA, 10-2 ATS): The Cougars have been unstoppable at home, outscoring opponents 323-106. For the season, Houston is averaging 613 total yards and 52.7 points. Keenum is the NCAA career leader in every major passing category and needs 274 passing yards to become the first college player with three 5,000-yard seasons. Junior college transfer D.J. Hayden has sparked Houston’s opportunistic defense, which gives up 20.9 points per game. The corner has two INTs, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Golden Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Houston.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Southern Miss has returned seven interceptions for touchdowns, tying a school record.
2. Houston has 100 plays of 20-plus yards, most in the nation.
3. The Cougars boast their their highest ranking since Nov. 3, 1990, when they were ranked No. 3.
PREDICTION: Houston 48, Southern Miss 31 – The Cougars delight their sellout crowd with another offensive show.
LSU Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (+13.5, 45.5)
THE STORY: A possible 11th Southeastern Conference title is only the appetizer for top-ranked LSU. The undefeated Tigers need only a win over No. 14 Georgia at the Georgia Dome to punch their ticket to the BCS National Championship Game. LSU brings in a 13-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the nation. Seven of LSU's wins this season have come against Top-25 teams. The Tigers lead the all-time series 15-12-1. LSU won the most recent meeting, 20-13 in Athens in 2009, but Georgia won the most recent meeting in the conference championship game. The Bulldogs claimed their 12th SEC crown with a 34-14 win over LSU in 2005.
LINE: LSU opened at -11 and has been bet up to -13.5. The total has dipped from 46 to 45.5.
ABOUT LSU (12-0, 8-0 SEC, 9-3 ATS): The Tigers are 12-0 for the first time in school history and they've been nothing short of dominant in getting there. They pummeled then-No. 3 Arkansas 41-17 last week to clinch their fifth trip to the SEC title game since 2001. LSU is 3-1 in the SEC championship game, including a 34-13 win over Georgia in 2003 and the loss to the Bulldogs in 2005. The quarterback duo of Jordan Jefferson (654 pass yards, 5 TDs, 253 rush yards, 3 TDs) and Jarrett Lee (1,306 pass yards, 14 TDs) leads the SEC's top scoring offense at 38.2 points per game.
ABOUT GEORGIA (10-2, 7-1 SEC, 8-4 ATS): If any team has been nearly as impressive as LSU, it has been Georgia over the past 11 weeks. The Bulldogs have won 10 straight since losing their first two -- including a season-opening loss to Boise State at the Georgia Dome. Sophomore QB Aaron Murray has proven adept at guiding the offense, tossing a school-record 32 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions. Over the past four games, Murray has 14 touchdowns and two picks. The Bulldogs hope Murray will have help from leading rusher Isaiah Crowell (832 rush yards, 5 TDs), who is listed as probable after missing last week's game with an ankle injury.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. LSU's defense ranks in the top six in the nation in four major categories -- total defense (second at 248.42), scoring defense (second at 10.58), rush defense (fourth at 86.08) and pass defense (sixth at 162.33).
2. Georgia's defense has been nearly as dominant, ranking fifth in the nation in total defense (271.1), sixth in rush defense (94.8) and 10th in scoring defense (17.8).
3. LSU defensive backs have accounted for six touchdowns this year, which is equal to the number of passing touchdowns the Tigers have allowed.
PREDICTION: LSU 34, Georgia 16 -- The Tigers have passed tougher tests already; the 'Dogs won't derail them from the title game.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers (+6.5, 53.5)
THE STORY: The last time Virginia Tech saw Clemson, the Tigers were strolling out of Blacksburg with a 23-3 victory in the Hokies’ ACC opener. But there is no question who the hotter team is entering Saturday night’s ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. Virginia Tech has not lost since that Oct. 1 defeat to Clemson, winning seven consecutive games by an average of 13.7 points to rise to No. 3 in the nation. The Hokies have won the ACC three of the past four seasons (2007, 2008, 2010).
Clemson is moving in the opposite direction. Following eight consecutive victories to open the season, the 21st ranked Tigers have dropped three of the past four, including a two-touchdown loss at Georgia Tech and 20-plus point defeats to North Carolina State and South Carolina. The Clemson offense has scored just 74 points in its past four games, after averaging 40.6 points during its 8-0 start.
Clemson leads the series 18-12-1 - the Oct. 1 victory broke Virginia Tech’s five-game winning streak in the series.
LINE: Virginia Tech opened as high as -7.5 and has been bet down to as low as -6.5. The total has climbed from 52.5 to 53.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (11-1, 7-1 ACC, 4-8 ATS): For quarterback Logan Thomas, the loss to Clemson marked a turning point. After passing for just 125 yards against the Tigers, Thomas has thrown 14 of his 18 touchdown passes during the Hokies’ seven-game win streak, and has added nine rushing touchdowns in that span. Running back David Wilson has 10 100-yard rushing games and 1,595 rushing yards on the year. The Hokies have found their stride on defense as well, ranking seventh in the nation in average points allowed (15.5).
ABOUT CLEMSON (9-3, 6-2 ACC, 7-5 ATS): For the first two months of the season, quarterback Tajh Boyd was one of the hottest signal-callers in the nation. But the sophomore has struggled mightily the past month. Boyd completed just 11-of-29 passes for 83 yards against South Carolina, and has thrown seven of his 10 interceptions in the past four games. Freshman receiver Sammy Watkins set ACC freshmen records for receptions (72), yards receiving (1,073) and touchdowns (10). The Clemson defense gave up a season-low in points against the Hokies, but has allowed 30 points or more six times.
TRENDS:
* Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Hokies' last five neutral site games as favorites.
* Under is 12-3 in Tigers' last 15 conference games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Hokies make their fifth appearance in the championship game, most by any ACC school.
2. Clemson has appeared in just one ACC title game, losing to Georgia Tech in 2009.
3. The future is bright for both teams. Clemson tied Indiana for most freshmen who played this season (29), while Virginia Tech tied for sixth (25).
PREDICTION: Virginia Tech 28, Clemson 16 – Everything is rolling for the Hokies right now. The offensive 1-2 punch of Thomas and Wilson, coupled with the Hokies’ defense, gives Virginia Tech more than enough to win another ACC title.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-9.5, 54.5)
THE STORY: Wisconsin’s last two dream season have been interrupted by Kirk Cousins and Michigan State. The Badgers will be looking for some revenge when they face the Spartans in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. Wisconsin was up to No. 4 in the country when it visited Michigan State on Oct. 22 but left with its national championship dreams dashed on a Hail Mary by Cousins as time expired. The 12th-ranked Badgers lost again the next week but recovered to win the Leaders Division by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker with Penn State. The ninth-ranked Spartans edged rival Michigan for the Legends Division, setting up a rematch in the championship game with a BCS Bowl berth on the line.
LINE: Wisconsin opened at -9 and has remained steady at most books. The total opened at 54.5 and has climbed to 55 at some markets.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten, 8-4 ATS): Cousins and his fellow seniors are the winningest class in school history and have helped bring the program back among the nation’s elite under coach Mark Dantonio. The signature moment of Cousins’ career may have come in the Oct. 22 meeting with the Badgers, when he heaved a 44-yard touchdown pass to Keith Nichol as time expired. While Cousins and wide receiver B.J. Cunningham get most of the attention, Michigan State relies heavily on its defense, which is holding opponents to an average of 15.4 points.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (10-2, 6-2, 7-4-1 ATS): The Badgers have lost the last two regular season meetings with Michigan State, dooming their national championship prospects in both seasons. But just like 2010, Wisconsin is coming to the finish line strong. Running back Montee Ball leads the nation in touchdowns and teams with quarterback Russell Wilson to help the Badgers to an average of 44.8 points - fourth best in the country. Wisconsin has won four straight and is coming off a 45-7 shellacking of Penn State in a must-win game last Saturday.
TRENDS:
* Over is 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Ball was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year and ranks second in NCAA history with 34 touchdowns this season. Barry Sanders holds the record with 39 in 1988.
2. Michigan State has won at least 10 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in school history.
3. Badgers RB James White lost a fumble in the win over Penn State, ending his streak of almost two full seasons without a lost fumble.
PREDICTION: Wisconsin 31, Michigan State 28 - The Badgers will get the early lead this time and use Ball to bleed the clock and avoid a comeback.
College Football Gambling Preview: Texas Longhorns at Baylor Bears
By Fairway Jay
Sportsmemo.com
The Baylor Bears (8-3, 5-3 Big Xll) host the Texas Longhorns (7-4, 4-4) in the regular season finale for both teams Saturday. Texas enters off an upset win at Texas A&M on Thanksgiving, booting a last-second field goal to win 27-25 and kicking their rival A&M out of the Big Xll as the Aggies move to the SEC next season. A closer look at the box score shows Texas gained just 237 yards offense at 3.6 yards per play and benefitted from four A&M turnovers. Meanwhile, Baylor put a beating on Texas Tech last week 66-42 and the Bears have won four straight games and are now 6-0 SU/ATS at home. With over 600 yards offense including 79 running plays for 360 rushing yards last week, the Bears should be ready to run again this week versus the Longhorns.
Few state rivalries have been dominated by one side more than Texas over Baylor from 1999 to 2009. The Longhorns have made a habit of absolutely burying the Bears annually, with wins by 33, 24, 21, 32, 62, 30, 56, 51, 34 and 62 points. Last year the Bears broke through against big brother, beating the Longhorns in Austin 30-22 as 7.5-point underdogs. At that time, Texas was going through their worst season in decades, but the Longhorns did have a top-10 defense that allowed just 300 ypg. This season, Texas again has a top-10 defense allowing 297 ypg and 4.5 yards per play. Texas ranks 59th on offense this season with 390 ypg and 5.4 yards per play, while Baylor checks in with the nation’s No. 2 offense averaging 576 ypg and 7.42 yards per play; trailing only the Houston Cougars. The Bears score 43 points per game including 45 and 42 points in recent home wins over Oklahoma and Missouri; two teams that beat Texas this season. Against four quality Big Xll defenses this season (Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M), Baylor averaged 7.3 yards per play (same as their season average) and nearly 35 ppg.
Texas will need to rely on its defense again this week and hope the running game can have success between the tackles after a couple poor rushing performances the past three games (less than 90 yards/game and 2.5 ypr in two games). The Texas backfield has been banged up of late and their quarterback play is developing but still sub-par with Case McCoy now starting. But Baylor does allow 199 rushing ypg and over 5.2 ypr, and the Longhorns have a big edge in special teams. But can Texas contain Robert Griffin lll (7 rushing TDs, 34 TD passes, and 5 INTs) and the explosive Bears offense? Griffin will play this week after suffering concussion like symptoms in last week’s win. He has posted an out-of-this-world QB rating of 191; which for the record is higher than former Texas quarterback Vince Young’s nation-best 163 QB rating in 2005. While this will be Griffin’s toughest test facing a strong Texas defense, he did pass for 479 yards and rush for 72 yards against Oklahoma in victory and passed for 425 yards with 27 yards rushing while playing from behind in a loss at Oklahoma State. Texas did slow Griffin some last season with 219 passing yards and 17 rushing yards. But this game is in Waco, and the Bears should reach 425 yards offense and average at least 6.7 yards per play. Can the Texas defense create more turnovers and help its average offense generate enough scores with shorter field position?
While many public bettors have piled on to Baylor with the recent renaissance, there are still plenty of Longhorns lovers that can’t believe Texas could ever be an underdog to Baylor. The Bears are shooting for their sixth win in Big Xll play, which would be their best ever in a season. Plenty of motivation with a decade of dominance by their opponent should have the Bears at their best. Tune in Saturday on ABC and see if Griffin can lead the Bears to victory and complete a sensational season as one of the nation’s top players and Heisman hopefuls.
NCAAF Week 14
Home side won five of last six UConn-Cincinnati games, with Huskies losing last four visits here, by 2-24-11-17 points; underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in last seven series games, with average total in last 3, 71.0. Bearcats stumbled down stretch after QB Collaros was lost for season with leg injury- they covered just one of last five tries as a favorite. UConn is 0-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 3-27-15 points. Last four Cincinnati games stayed under total; six of last seven UConn games went over. Big East single digit home favorites are 3-6 vs spread. Bearcats win share of Big East title if they win here.
Pittsburgh won last six games vs Syracuse (4-2 vs spread), with five wins by 10+ points; favorites covered six of last eight series games. Orange lost last four visits to Heinz Field by 27-3-17-20 points- favorites covered four of their last five visits here. Panthers are just 3-3 SU at home this year vs I-A teams, 1-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 19-27-15 points. Five of last six Pitt games stayed under total; six of last nine Orange games went over. Syracuse is 1-3 on road (0-4 vs spread) this year, losing away games by 21 at USC, 17 at Louisville, 7 at UConn. Big East home favorites of 3+ points are 2-6 vs spread. Pitt needs win to be bowl eligible.
Kansas State’s only two losses were to the Oklahoma schools, when they gave up 58-52 points; amazing that they’re 9-2 despite favored in only 3 of 11 games (2-0 as HF, third game vs I-AA team). Wildcats won 11 of last 14 vs Iowa State, taking last three by 7-1-8 points; only one of their last seven series wins was by more than 8 points. Cyclones lost five of last six visits to Little Apple, with four of five losses by 21+ points- favorites covered four of their last five visits here. Iowa State is 3-2 as road dog, losing away games by 23-35-20 points. Big X home favorites of 12 or less points are 3-4 vs spread. Four of last five Cyclone games stayed under total; seven of last nine K-State games went over.
Favorites covered six of last seven Wyoming-Colorado State games, which is a fierce rivalry; Cowboys whupped State 44-0 LY, and shut Rams out last two times they were series favorite, but they’ve also but lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 23-24 and three by 8 points each. 7-4 Wyoming is having nice year; they’re 4-1 as road underdog this year, 3-2 SU on road, 1-1 when favored, but since ’07, they’re 0-4 as road favorite. 3-8 Rams lost last seven games; they’re 3-4 as underdog this year, 1-1 at home. Under is 5-0-1 in Wyoming’s last six games; three of State’s four home games went over total. Chances are Colorado State will fire Fairchild after this game.
Hard to figure how Oklahoma State will react after getting upset at Iowa State in last game 15 days ago, costing them shot at national title; Cowboys are 3-2 as home favorites this year, winning in Stillwater by 27-23-42-35-7 points. Oklahoma won its last eight games vs Oklahoma State by average score of 43-22; favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games. Sooners won last four visits here, with average total of 80.3; they scored 42+ points in four of last six series games. Oklahoma allowed 41-45 points in its two losses (Texas Tech/@ Baylor); this is first time they’ve been underdog this season. Four of State’s five home games went over the total.
Baylor upset Texas 30-22 LY, ending 12+-game series losing streak; they’re 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games, all as dogs, but Texas won last six visits to Waco, all by 21+ points. Even in their loss LY, Longhorns outgained Baylor by 100 yards. 8-3 Bears allowed 36-55-59 points in their three losses, which all came on road; they’re 5-0 at home, 3-0 as home favorites, with wins by 2-25-23-3-7 points in Waco, where they average 48.4 ppg vs I-A foes. Texas upset rival Aggies last week to clinch winning record, but they’re just 3-4 SU in last seven games. Home teams are 5-1 vs spread this year in Big 12 games where spread is 5 or less points. Nine of ten Baylor games went over total; five of last six Texas games stayed under.
BYU won seven of last eight games, with only loss to TCU; they scored 38+ points in four of last five games, with last three wins by 53-35-35 points. Cougars are 2-2 on road, losing by 1 at Texas, 10 at TCU, beating Ole Miss by point, winning by 10 at Oregon State. Hawaii needs win to play in bowl game; they’ve lost three of last four games, losing last two at home by total of 7 points to pair of WAC schools. Warriors are 2-1 as an underdog this year; they’re 6-4 as home dog under McMackin. Cougars have a BYU branch school on islands, so they’ll have support for their first visit to Paradise in 10 years. Four of last five BYU games, seven of last ten Hawaii tilts went over the total.
Underdogs are 22-4 vs spread in WAC games this year, 8-1 at home. Utah State is headed to just 6th bowl ever and first since 1997; the last 10 years, having won last four games, all by 7 or less points- they’re 2-3 SU on road, with underdogs covering all five games. USU is 2-7 vs spread as a road favorite, but they’re 9-4 in last 13 series games, with underdogs 9-4 vs spread in those games. USU (both sides in this game are Aggies) won four of last visits to Las Cruces, where underdogs covered five of last six series meetings- only one of USU’s last four wins here was by more than 7 points. NM State lost five of last six games, last two by combined score of 86-7. Over is 7-2 in NM State’s last nine games, 3-1-1 in Utah State’s road games.
4-8 Fresno State’s last three games were all decided by 3 points; Bulldogs are dangerous dogs, as always, covering four of last five when getting points (3-0 as road dog this year), but they’ve allowed 36+ points in seven of 12 games, which especially hurt them at home, where they used to be a formidable foe. San Diego State won three of last four games to clinch bowl bid; they’re 2-4 as favorite this year, 1-2 at home- their home wins (2-3 SU) are by 18 over Washington State, 28 over New Mexico. WAC non-conference road underdogs are 12-7 vs spread this season, 6-1 if spread is less than 20 points; Mountain West non-conference home favorites of less than 20 points are 1-5. Under is 5-2-1 in Aztecs’ last eight games; 4-8 in Fresno games.
Houston is playing for Conference USA’s first-ever BCS bowl bid, meaning Southern Miss figures to pocket extra quarter million bucks or so if they lose this game, not that players/coaches care (AD and accountants might). Cougars are 11-0, covering last seven games; they’re 5-0 as home favorite, winning by 4-53-35-39-30 points. Southern Miss is 10-2 this year, somehow losing at Marshall/UAB; they’re 2-0 as an underdog this year. Pair of senior QB’s in C-USA title game could mean high scoring game; Southern Miss Home side won last four Southern Miss-Houston games over last six years, with Golden Eagles losing last two visits here, 50-43/34-21; average total in those four games was 76.3. Three of last four Houston games stayed under total, since all four were 75+; three of USM’s last four games went over. C-USA home favorites are 16-12 vs spread, 11-9 if they’re laying double digits. Undefeated teams are 8-10 vs spread in conference title games like this one.
Double digit favorites are 21-8 vs spread in SEC games this season. Undefeated teams are 8-10 vs spread in conference title games like this one. LSU hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in a game since September, when they beat Oregon 40-27 on neutral field and won 47-21 at West Virginia; Tigers are 7-2 vs spread when favored this year- they won their three games since the Alabama showdown by 42-9/52-3/41-17 scores. Georgia won its last ten games since opening losses to Boise State/South Carolina had Richt getting fired on call-in shows. Favorites are 9-2 vs spread in Georgia games this year; their two losses were only games they were underdog this year. Road underdogs won last two Georgia-LSU games, last of which was in ’09. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven SEC title games. Four of last five LSU games went over total, as did six of last eight SEC title games.
Clemson (+7.5) was on roll when it won 23-3 at Blacksburg back on October 1, holding Hokies to 258 total yards and shutting them out in second half, but Tigers faded late in season, losing three of last four games while scoring 17-13-13 points in those losses, all of which were on road and by 14+ points. Virginia Tech is 7-0 since losing to Tigers, with four wins by 11+ points and three by 4 or less; they allowed 12.2 ppg in six road games this year, winning all six (3-3 vs spread). Hokies won three of last four ACC title games, last three of which were covered by favorite; Clemson (+1) lost 39-34 to Ga Tech in its lone title game appearance two years ago. ACC conference favorites of 7+ points are 14-18 vs spread this year. Under is 6-2 in last eight Clemson games, 3-1 in last four Tech tilts.
Michigan State (+7.5) beat then-unbeaten Wisconsin 37-31 on last-second Hail Mary October 22, despite allowing Badgers 443 yards in game State led 23-14 at half; Spartans were held to 13-3 points in their two losses (31-13 @ Notre Dame/24-3 @ Nebraska)- they’re 2-2 as underdogs this year. Badgers allowed 37-33 points in their two losses, but scored 44 ppg in winning last four games, with 11 points closest of the four; Wisconsin is 6-4-1 as favorite this year, but 1-3-1 away from Madison, where they won by 42-29-22 points, but lost to Spartans and Ohio State (33-29). Both sides have senior QB’s, usually a sign for lot of offense. Seven of last nine Wisconsin games, three of last four MSU games went over the total; Big Dozen favorites of 9+ points are 13-14 vs spread this season.