College Football betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, December 2nd, 2016 thru Saturday, December 3rd, 2016
NCAAF Week 14 Opening Line Report
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
After 13 weeks of regular-season play, the dust will finally settle in Week 14, with conference titles rationed out by Saturday night and the four-team College Football Playoff set on Sunday. Covers talks with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu, about the opening lines on a few key games this weekend.
SEC Championship Game
No. 15 Florida Gators vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-21.5)
Defending national champion Alabama hasn’t lost since the third week of the 2015 season and is a huge favorite to keep that 24-game streak rolling at the Georgia Dome. The Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) dumped Auburn 30-12 in the annual Iron Bowl rivalry Saturday, though ‘Bama fell just short as 20.5-point home chalk.
Florida (8-3 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) stepped out of conference in Week 13 and got whacked at Florida State 31-13 as a 9-point underdog Saturday.
The Tide have won the last five in this rivalry, including 29-15 as a 16.5-point fave in last year’s SEC title game.
“I will be eager to see how effective Alabama's offense will be against the top-flight defense that Florida boasts,” Lester said. “But I’m not sure how the Gators are going to score points in this one, and that's why we have another massive Tide spread.”
Big Ten Championship Game
No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 6 Wisconsin Badgers (-3)
Penn State is hoping a win in this game, coupled with its regular-season upset of Ohio State, leads to a CFP berth. The Nittany Lions (10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) assured their spot in the conference final with a 45-12 rout of visiting Michigan State laying 11 points on Saturday.
Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) capped its regular season with a 31-17 home win over Minnesota, pushing as a 14-point favorite. The Badgers would need a win Saturday in Indianapolis and probably some help – as would Penn State – to get into the playoff.
“I suspect we'll see this line climb as the week progresses, but you never know, and Penn State might garner more public support,” Lester said. “This was a fairly simple line to set: neutral field, and the Badgers are about 3 points better in our power ratings.”
Pac-12 Championship Game
No. 9 Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 5 Washington Huskies (-7.5)
Washington would be firmly in the CFP picture if it hadn’t stubbed its toe hard in Week 11 at home against Southern Cal. But the Huskies (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) rebounded with two wins, including Saturday’s 45-17 road rout of Washington State giving 6 points in the annual Apple Cup rivalry.
Colorado is arguably one of the biggest surprises this season, but also the least likely to get into the CFP, even with a victory Friday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The Buffaloes (10-2 SU and ATS) held off Utah 27-22 Saturday to clinch their berth in the Pac-12 title game.
“This number could drop, as the wiseguys haven't been big believers of Washington of late, while Colorado continues to impress the college football world,” Lester said. “If the Huskies handle this game with ease, they probably should be in the College Football Playoff.”
ACC Championship Game
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. No. 4 Clemson Tigers (-9.5)
Clemson, which lost to Alabama in the national championship game last year, is looking to book a return trip to the four-team playoff. The Tigers (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) wrapped up the regular season with a 56-7 shellacking of South Carolina laying 27 points at home Saturday.
Virginia Tech (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) won five of its last six games, but the one it lost – at home to Georgia Tech as a 14-point fave in Week 11 – definitely stung and will have the Hokies on the outside looking in for the CFP, no matter what they do this week. VaTech drubbed Virginia 52-10 as a 19-point chalk Saturday to cap its regular season.
“Which Virginia Tech team is going to show up in this one?” Lester asked. “Clemson has quietly been taking care of business down the stretch, but the Hokies can be a dangerous bunch. We're confident this is a good number for balanced action.”
No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (-12.5)
Both these squads are coming off bye weeks, and though this is a regular-season game – the Big 12 doesn’t have a conference championship game – it will end up deciding the conference title.
Oklahoma still has an outside shot to squeeze into the CFP, but will need to take care of its in-state rival in the Bedlam Game and hope for some help. Since a home loss to Ohio State, the Sooners (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) have ripped off eight straight wins, including a 56-28 road thrashing of West Virginia giving 3.5 points in Week 12.
Oklahoma State (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) is riding a seven-game winning streak into this regular-season finale. The Cowboys drubbed Texas Christian 31-6 getting 6.5 points in Week 12.
“Plenty of motivation left for both squads, and obviously a huge rivalry game,” Lester said. “But with the way OU has been covering spreads, we wanted to make this high enough to hopefully attract underdog money. We'll see if the Cowboys can compete, or if they're in the same tier as West Virginia.”
Championship Game Notes
VegasInsider.com
Week 14 of the 2016 college football season will be highlighted with eight championship games on tap.
The action starts Friday with the MAC and Pac-12 title games before finishing on Saturday with six more championships.
Check out the matchups, odds and betting notes on all eight title games below.
MAC Championship - Western Michigan vs. Ohio
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
MAC Betting History
Odds: Western Michigan opened as a 19-point favorite.
Betting Notes and Trends
Friday’s matchup will be the 20th MAC Championship.
This will be the Western Michigan's first appearance in the title game since 2000.
Western Michigan and Ohio have never faced each other in the MAC title game. Ohio is making its first appearance in this contest since losing to Northern Illinois in 2011.
The Broncos destroyed the Bobcats earlier this season, 49-14 to cash as 3.5-point road underdogs.
Underdogs have gone 11-8 against the spread in the MAC title game.
Western Michigan is one of two undefeated teams in the country (Alabama), while going 6-0 on the road this season, 5-1 ATS. The Broncos went 4-3 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.
Ohio won four of six games away from Athens this season, as one of those defeats came in September at Tennessee, 28-19 as 27-point underdogs.
Preseason Future Odds to win the MAC
Ohio 10/1
Western Michigan 4/1
Pac 12 Championship - Washington vs. Colorado
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California
Pac-12 Betting History
Odds: Washington opened up a seven-point favorite.
Betting Notes and Trends
The Pac-12 North has captured the first five championship games, which includes two wins by both Stanford and Oregon.
Favorites have gone 4-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS in the first four Pac-12 title games.
The ‘over/under’ has gone 3-2.
Both the Huskies and Buffaloes are making their first appearance in the conference championship.
These teams did not meet this season, as Washington has won all four matchups with Colorado since the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12 in 2011.
Washington won all five games away from Seattle this season, while Colorado went 3-2 in true road contests.
The Buffaloes put together a terrific 10-2 ATS record, including a 4-0 ATS mark in the underdog role.
Preseason Future Odds to win the Pac-12
Colorado 200/1
Washington 40/1
CUSA Championship - Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky
Venue: LT Smith Stadium
Location: Bowling Green, Kentucky
C-USA Betting History
Odds: Western Kentucky opened as a 7 ½-point home favorite.
Betting Notes and Trends
This will be the 12th Conference USA Championship Game. Underdogs have gone 6-5 against the spread. Total bettors have seen the ‘under’ go 6-4-1.
WKU will playing in its secpnd straight title game while Louisiana Tech will be making its first trip since it lost the championship in the 2014 season.
Western Kentucky has gone 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this season. The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS when listed as a single-digit favorite, but two of those ATS losses came on the road.
WKU started the season with three consecutive 'unders,' but is 6-3 to the 'over' the last nine contests.
Louisiana Tech is 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road, including losses by four points or fewer to Arkansas and Middle Tennessee State.
The Bulldogs closed the season on a 7-1 run but lost their season finale as double-digit road favorites at Southern Mississippi. The school finished 2-1 ATS as a road underdog, while posting an 8-2 ATS mark as a road 'dog since 2014.
Louisiana Tech outlasted Western Kentucky in its last meeting back in October, 55-52 as 2 ½-point home underdogs. Each quarterback, Louisiana Tech's Ryan Higgins and WKU's Mike White tossed five touchdown passes apiece in the shootout.
Preseason Future Odds to win the CUSA
Western Kentucky 2/1
Louisiana Tech 4/1
American Athletic Championship - Temple at Navy
Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Location: Annapolis, Maryland
AAC Betting History
Odds: Navy opened up as three-point favorites.
Betting Notes and Trends
This will be the second American Athletic Championship game as Temple fell to Houston in last year's inaugural edition.
Temple started the season with a surprising home loss to Army, but the Owls have been a machine recently by covering 11 straight games.
Navy was 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home this season, while scoring at least 40 points four times at home.
The Owls and Midshipmen did not meet this season as Navy won at Temple in September 2014 by a 31-24 count as three-point favorites.
Preseason Future Odds to win the AAC
Navy 7/1
Temple 20/1
SEC Championship - Alabama vs. Florida
Venue: Georgia Dome
Location: Atlanta, Georgia
SEC Betting History
Odds: Alabama opened up as heavy 22 ½-point favorites, but that number has moved to 23 at several books.
Betting Notes and Trends
Saturday’s matchup will be the 25th SEC Championship Game. Since its inception in 1992, underdogs have gone 12-11-1 against the spread.
Total players have watched the ‘over’ cash in the last seven championship games. The ‘over’ is 15-9 in the 24 title matchups.
The SEC West has won seven straight matchups and six of those victories were by double digits.
Alabama has won four championships during the recent span and five overall.
This will be the ninth meeting between these teams in the championship game. The teams have split the first eight meetings, including Alabama's 29-15 win last December.
The Crimson Tide went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road, while Florida was 3-3 SU and 1-4 ATS as a visitor.
Alabama has won five straight meetings against Florida, winning all of them by at least 14 points.
Preseason Future Odds to win the SEC
Alabama 2/1
Florida 20/1
Mountain West Championship - Wyoming vs. San Diego State
Venue: War Memorial Stadium
Location: Laramie, Wyoming
MWC Betting History
Odds: San Diego State opened as a six-point home favorite.
Betting Notes and Trends
This will be the fourth MWC Championship game and played at the venue of the higher seed.
In the first three title games, the home team won each time.
Underdogs are 2-1 ATS while the ‘under’ has gone 2-1.
Wyoming was a great bet at home (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS), including wins over San Diego State, Boise State, and Air Force as heavy underdogs. San Diego State went 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on road, as the Aztecs were listed as favorites in each of those games.
The Cowboys lost two of their final three games, but won the three-team tiebreaker with Boise State and New Mexico to advance to their first MWC title game.
Wyoming took care of San Diego State two weeks ago as a 10-point home underdog, 34-33. These two teams have split the past four meetings dating back to 2011.
Preseason Future Odds to win the MWC
San Diego State 6/1
Wyoming 40/1
ACC Championship - Clemson vs. Virginia Tech
Venue: Camping World Stadium
Location: Orlando, Florida
ACC Betting History
Odds: Clemson opened up as nine-point favorites.
Betting Notes and Trends
This will be the 12th installment of the ACC Championship. Favorites have gone 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS. Total bettors have watched the 'over' go 6-5.
Clemson has played in the title game three times and has gone 2-1, including a 45-37 victory over North Carolina last season.
Virginia Tech will be making its sixth appearance in the title game, going 3-2 with the last appearance coming against Clemson in 2011, a 38-10 defeat.
The Tigers have gone 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS on the road this season while Virginia Tech was 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Clemson's only loss came at home to Pittsburgh in mid-November, 43-42, but the Tigers held eight opponents to 17 points or less.
The Hokies are 1-1 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, beating Notre Dame (+1) and losing to Tennessee (+11) at Bristol Motor Speedway.
These teams haven't hooked up since 2012 as Clemson has captured each of the past three meetings.
Preseason Future Odds to win the ACC
Clemson 2/1
Virginia Tech 8/1
Big 10 Championship - Penn State vs. Wisconsin
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
Big Ten Betting History
Odds: The Badgers opened up as slight three-point favorites.
Betting Notes and Trends
Underdogs have gone 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the first five Big Ten title games.
The ‘over’ has gone 4-1.
Penn State is riding an eight-game winning streak, while covering in each of the past seven victories. The Nittany Lions went 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road.
Wisconsin is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a visitor, the lone loss coming in a 14-7 defeat at Michigan.
These teams didn’t play in this year’s regular season. Penn State won the previous matchup in 2013 as 25-point road underdogs in the regular season finale, 31-24.
Preseason Future Odds to win the Big 10
Wisconsin 7/1
Penn State 25/1
Opening Line Report - Week 14
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Here are the opening point-spreads and notes on early betting action for the four major college football championship games set for this week, plus Bedlam, the Big 12’s informal title contest.
We picked the brains of two prominent Las Vegas bookmakers – John Avello at the Wynn and Ed Salmons at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook – for their thoughts on the card.
Pac-12: Colorado vs. Washington (-7.5)
Washington opened -6.5 at CG Technology but -7 almost everywhere else in Las Vegas, and early bettors laid the points, pushing the number to -7.5.
Avello cautions against spotting Colorado too many points. The Buffaloes’ two losses this season have come on the road against two of the better teams in the country – Michigan and USC. Also, while there does not appear to be path for them to make the College Football Playoff, the chance to win the Pac-12 title is all the motivation the Buffs need, Avello believes.
"This is a Colorado team that’s just trying to win a conference championship, and that’s probably all they’ve been trying to do from the very beginning," he said. "I don’t think they ever had aspirations of getting into the final four."
Washington, though, is back in the groove after its 26-13 loss to USC on Nov. 12, scoring 44 and 45 Arizona State and Washington State, respectively. "They got back to their ways of putting a lot of points on the board," Avello said. "This looks to be a game with a lot of points scored."
SEC: Florida vs. Alabama (-24)
The Wynn opened Alabama -22 on Sunday but was bet up to -24 by Monday.
Salmons, whose shop opened the game 23.5 before a move to 24, anticipates a pace slow enough to help the underdog cover a spread this size, even if the Gators can’t put many points on the board.
"If Florida can score 10 points, they’ll cover," Salmons predicts "The pace will be so slow, and Florida’s defense always gives them a chance to cover that kind of spread. That’s a humongous number."
Avello, though, sees vulnerability in the Gators defense.
"Florida is normally built on good defense and hang around in the game, that’s kind of the Florida style," Avello said. "The problem now is they’re just not scoring, and teams capable of scoring can put 30, 40 on ‘em."
Plus, as good as Alabama’s defense has been all year, it has gotten better as the season progressed. Avello pointed out that in their last three SEC regular-season games, the Crimson Tide gave up no points to LSU, three to Mississippi State and 12 to Auburn.
"They’re playing exactly the way Nick Saban wants them to play," he said. "Not give up a lot and get the points you need to get to win the football game." One caveat: While it looks doubtful early in the week, should quarterback Luke Del Rio be healthy enough to start, it’s a "huge plus for (Florida)," Avello said.
"Maybe help them get motivated, help them put a few points on the board. But I don’t know, this Alabama team looks awful tough."
ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Clemson (-10)
Clemson was bet from -9 to -10, but Avello isn’t sure why. The 11-1 Tigers have dodged some bullets this season – and caught one against Pittsburgh for their only loss of the season – and their late-season momentum has been built with wins against the likes of Syracuse, Wake Forest and South Carolina.
"I don’t know if the move on this game is people saying they’re back in stride, because I don’t know how they are back in stride," Avello said. "Beating those teams is nothing..."They’ve been in some really close calls," he added. "They were in a close call with Louisville, and now we see Louisville’s really no good."
While Salmons doesn’t see much value in the point-spread, he gives Virginia Tech a solid chance to win the game.
"Clemson turns the ball over," he said. "They’re really lax with the ball on offense. If you turn the ball over you can lose the game."
Similar to Colorado, Virginia Tech will find plenty of motivation in the form of a potential conference championship.
Avello said, "I’m not sure, coming off a 7-6 season, (Virginia Tech) was expecting to make the final four. This is their season, right here. I expect a big effort out of them."
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Wisconsin (-3)
The Big Ten title tilt opened Wisconsin -3 at most shops and -3.5 at the Westgate, with Monday bettors taking Penn State plus the points and pushing the number to 2. In fact, MGM Resorts was dealing 1 on Monday.
Salmons said he made his personal line 5.5 when the matchup was set Saturday, but admits his numbers have been off on Penn State all season.
"It seems low to me, but then again, I don’t know if I’d be looking to lay points with Wisconsin with the way they play," he said Sunday of the opening number of 3. "That’s going to be a pretty low total, I think."
With both teams facing injury concerns to key offensive players (RB Saquon Barkley for Penn State, QB Alex Hornibrook for Wisconsin), Avello was reluctant to hang a number on the game.
"This is a game that concerns me. I have it up only because of the impact that game has," he said.
Big 12: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-12)
The de facto Big 12 championship game opened in the 13, 13.5 range, with underdog money bringing the number down to between 11 and 12 on Monday. Home-field advantage hasn’t meant much in Bedlam, as the road team has taken the last three games in the series.
Despite the move against the Sooners, Salmons does not think -13 was too high.
"The number feels perfect to me," Salmons said. "The total is going to be in the 70s, just a high-paced game where 13 is not a lot of points."
Salmons added, "Oklahoma, offensively, has been playing as well as anyone in the country. Their weakness is defense. But they’re so much of a better team than Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is winning with mirrors this year – they’re just not that good of a team. They’re just playing Big 12 teams and the Big 12 stinks. It’s an awful conference."
Avello sees an improved team in Oklahoma from the one that lost to Houston and Ohio State early in the season.
"At the beginning of the year, there was so much expected of (Sooners junior QB Baker Mayfield) and he wasn’t performing well. He seems to really have found himself as of late," Avello said. "I think that’s the reason the team has been more consistent the past four or five games. It’s not like they shut anybody down, but it seems they can move the ball up and down the field. Nobody’s been able to stop them."
Early line moves
Three games on the light Week 14 card have seen the point spread move at least two points in the first 22 hours of wagering at the Wynn:
Troy vs. Georgia Southern:
Opening line: Troy -9
After 22 hours: Troy -7
Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky
Opening line: WKU -7.5
After 22 hours: WKU -9.5
Florida vs. Alabama
Opening line: Alabama -22
After 22 hours: Alabama -24
Big 12 Report - Week 14
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Kansas State at Texas Christian
Two bowl-bound teams wrap up their regular season at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats haven't been very good lately against the number, going 2-5 ATS in their past seven overall, 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning overall record and 0-4 ATS in their past four games following a straight-up win. TCU hasn't had a ton of success against the number, either, as they're 3-8 ATS in their 11 games this season and 2-6 ATS in their eight league games. TCU is also 0-6 ATS in their six home games this season, although they are 6-1 ATS in their past seven at home against teams with a winning road mark.
These two teams met under different circumstances last season in Manhattan, and the Horned Frogs won 52-45 on Oct. 10, 2015, with the Wildcats covering. The 'over' has cashed in each of the past three meetings, and the home team is 3-0 ATS in the past three, with TCU covering two of the past three in the series.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
It's time for 'Bedlam' in Norman, as the Cowboys and Sooners renew their rivalry. Oklahoma opened as a two-touchdown favorite, but the line has been bet down to 11 as of Wednesday morning. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five league games. The Sooners have been pretty solid against the number lately, too, going 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a winning overall record. They're also 11-4 ATS in their past 15 league games, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven home outings against a team with a winning road record.
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, with the Cowboys 3-8 ATS in the past 11 meetings. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair, as the 'over' is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings. The over is also 11-3 in Oklahoma State's past 14 league games, and 13-5 in their past 18 overall. The over is 10-4 in Oklahoma's past 14 against teams with an overall winning mark, while going 20-8-1 in their past 29 conference tilts.
Baylor at West Virginia
Baylor and West Virginia lock horns in what is expected to be Jim Grobe's last regular season coaching assignment. Both teams will be headed for bowl games after. The Bears lost QB Seth Russell to a dislocated ankle in the Oklahoma game, and they haven't been unable to get on track. In fact, after a 6-0 start, the Bears are 0-5 SU/ATS over the past five outings. West Virginia has been much better against the number lately, going 2-1 ATS, although they have failed to cover each of their past two at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their past six road games, 0-5 ATS in their past five overall and 0-4 ATS in their past four following a straight up loss. For the Mountaineers, they are 1-4 ATS in their past five home games, and 4-12 ATS in their past 16 against teams with a winning record.
In four meetings since West Virginia joined the Big 12, Baylor is 3-1 ATS. The home team has covered each of the past three in this series, with the favorite also going 3-0 ATS. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings as well.
ACC Championship Preview
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
The Clemson Tigers (11-1 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) heads back to the ACC Championship Game for the second straight season, and fourth time in the past eight years. They'll also meet the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) for the second time in the title game. The last time these sides met in 2011 it was Clemson winning 38-10 as a seven-point underdog.
The stakes are much higher for the Tigers in this game, as they are ranked No. 3 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. There is no margin for error, with Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and potentially Colorado are nipping at their heels. The Tigers need a decisive win in their first meeting with the Hokies this season, and Vegas believes they will get it, as Clemson is favored by 10 points as of Wednesday morning.
Since a stunning 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh in Death Valley Nov. 12, Clemson has rattled off a pair of resounding victories. They topped Wake Forest 35-13 on the road, and they rolled rival South Carolina 56-7 last week for their third consecutive 'over' result. Clemson's offense has never been a question, as they rank 12th in the country with 509 total yards per game while rolling up 336.3 yards per game passing, fifth nationally. They are averaging 40.0 points per game (PPG), which also has them ranked 17th in the nation. While QB DeShaun Watson gets all of the headlines, the defense is just as responsible for Clemson's success. They rank eighth in the country by allowing just 307.8 total yards per game, while allowing 17.0 PPG to rank ninth overall. The Tigers are also allowing just 180.2 yards per game through the air, sitting 12th in the country in that department.
For Va. Tech, their offense hasn't been too shabby under head coach Justin Fuente in his first season, a departure from past seasons when defense and special teams play ruled the roost for the Gobblers under head coach Frank Beamer. The Hokies have posted 453.4 totals yards per game to rank 38th, buoyed by their pass attack which ranks 39th with 261.6 yards per game. While not quite at Clemson's level, Va. Tech is humming along with 35.0 PPG to rank 35th overall. Their defensive statistics are nearly a mirror image of Clemson's offensive-to-defensive ratio. The Hokies allow just 332.2 total yards per game to rank 18th, while yielding 21.1 PPG to check in 20th nationally.
Like Clemson, Virginia Tech suffered a debilitating and surprising loss Nov. 12, falling 30-20 to Georgia Tech despite entering as two-touchdown favorites. Since that setback the Hokies rattled off a hard-fought 34-31 win at Notre Dame and they too whitewashed their in-state rival last weekend, routing Virginia 52-10. The Hokies have covered each of their past two after an 0-3 ATS run, and the 'over' has connected in each of their past two.
For the Tigers, the offense starts and stops with the Heisman Trophy candidate Watson. He has completed 67.5 percent of his 453 pass attempts for 3,626 yards, 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and he has been a dual-threat option with 439 rushing yards (4.0 yards per attempt) while finding the end zone four times with his feet. While he wasn't as prolific on the ground as he was in 2015, he is still obviously very dangerous. He tossed six touchdowns last week against South Carolina and appears to be on a mission.
WR Mike Williams missed this game last season due to injury. He finished the regular season with 79 receptions for 1,114 yards (14.1 yards per reception) while finding the end zone 10 times. Williams is far from the only threat in the vertical game, however, as TE Jordan Leggett is a force with 588 yards and five scores while racking up 17.3 yards per reception. WR Deon Cain had 30 receptions for 552 yards while pulling down nine scores, and he was the team's leader with 18.4 yards per reception. WR Artavis Scott rounds out the solid triumvirate of wideouts with 64 catches for 544 yards and five scores. Even WR Ray-Ray McCloud is a player who can be dangerous, as he had 44 catches for 434 yards with two scores, and he would have had another if he didn't drop the ball at the 1 earlier in the season in a premature celebration.
Clemson RB Wayne Gallman is a stud in the run game, coming up with 943 rushing yards (5.3 yards per rush) with 14 touchdowns. Neither Gallman or RB Tavien Feaster are much of a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, although sophomore RB C.J. Fuller proved he could be a future pass-catching option out of the backfield in the future. It will be tough sledding for all involved against a Hokies rush defense allowing 145.8 yards per game, 39th in the country.
For Va. Tech, QB Jerod Evans isn't making anyone forget Michael Vick or Tyrod Taylor anytime soon, but he had a very underrated season with 3,045 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions while completing 63.8 percent of his passes. He also led the team in rushing with 713 yards, 4.4 yards per run and eight touchdowns on the ground. Evans picked up the slack for a rather toothless rushing attack, with RB Travon McMillian the best of the lot with 600 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry) and just four rushing scores. In fact, Evans had the eight rushing TDs and the rest of the team managed just 12.
WR Isaiah Ford was a top-notch option in the receiving game, leading the team with 949 yards with 13.8 yards per grab. He also tied for the team lead with seven scores. His partners in crime, WR Cam Phillips and TE Bucky Hodges, will need to be accounted from by the Clemson defense as well. Hodges led the team with 14.2 yards per catch while tying Ford with seven scoring grabs. Phillips averaged 13.4 yards per catch and can be a big-time playmaker. Both Hodges and Phillips each found the end zone in each of the final two regular season games.
Virginia Tech K Joey Slye posted 20 field goals and 108 points on the season, including a field goal of 47 yards. He had moderate range and reliable accuracy. Clemson's Greg Huegel is not terribly dependable in the kicking game, and he had 18 fewer points than in 2015, finishing with just 13 field goals and 56 extra points. Like Slye, Huegel's long was 47 yards in the field goal department. The kicking game might not play a huge factor in this game, but if it does the edge is slightly in Virginia Tech's favor.
Betting Trends to Watch
The Tigers have covered each of their past seven neutral-site games, and they're 5-0 ATS in their past five games played in the month of December. However, they're also just 1-4 ATS in their past five league games and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. Clemson is also 1-5 ATS in their past six games played on field turf.
Virginia Tech has struggled against the number, going 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles while posting a 1-4 ATS mark in their past five following a straight up win.
As far as totals are concerned, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five overall for Clemson, and 4-0 in their past four against teams with a winning overall record. In the past seven league games the 'over' is 5-2 for Clemson. In games played on field turf, the over is 4-1 in the past five for the Tigers, too.
For Va. Tech, the 'over' is 4-0-1 in the past five neutral-site assignments, while going 6-2 in their past eight games in the month of December. However, the 'under' has cashed in 18 of their past 25 games played inside the conference.
In this series, the underdog has cashed in four of the past five meetings, although the favorite hit in the most recent meeting Oct. 20, 2012 in Death Valley with Clemson coming out on top 38-17 as a 7 1/2-point favorite. The 'under' also hit in that meeting, and is 5-1 in the past six games played between these two sides.
Big 10 Championship Preview
By ASAWins.com
Wisconsin (-2.5) vs Penn State
The Numbers Game
Who called for Wisconsin to face Penn State in the Big Ten Championship before the season started? That’s what we thought. Nobody. Wisconsin entered the season with odds of +1400 to win the conference title while PSU was +1800. Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, and Nebraska all had better odds entering the season than the two that made it to Indianapolis.
Both these teams finished with 10-2 records despite the fact that Penn State’s win total opened in late May at 6.5 and Wisconsin’s was set at 7. Both teams obviously outplayed where most had them predicted including the betting market where the Badgers are 9-2-1 ATS and the Nittany Lions are 8-3-1 versus the number.
The Badgers opened as a 1.5 point favorite in this game and it was quickly bet up to -3. It has since come back down to -2.5 in some spots. The total opened at 47.5 and has been pushed up to 48 as of this writing. The underdog in the Big Ten Championship game is 4-0-1 ATS with three of those dogs winning outright. The five Big Ten Championship games in order from 2011 to 2015 have totaled 81, 101, 58, 59, and 29 points.
Wisconsin - Wisconsin entered their home game last week against Minnesota already knowing they’d won the Big Ten West. That’s because Iowa beat Nebraska on Friday which locked the Badgers into the championship game no matter how they fared against the Gophers.
Already knowing their position may have affected Wisconsin at the start of the game last week because they played one of their worst halves of the season. Minnesota took a 17-7 lead into the break at Camp Randall holding Wisconsin’s offense to just 139 yards before halftime. Normally reserved senior safety Leo Musso gave an inspiring halftime talk about retaining Paul Bunyon’s Axe, which Wisconsin has now held for 13 straight years and goes to the winner of this game.
After playing one of their worst halves the Badgers turned around and played one of their best outscoring Minnesota 24-0 after the break. The UW defense had 4 interceptions and stopped the Gopher offense cold in the 2nd half allowing only 90 yards. Starting QB Alex Hornibrook sat out much of the game after a big hit in the first half. He is going through concussion protocol this week and has not yet been cleared. If he is not, Bart Houston, who’s been sharing time at QB, will start.
Wisconsin’s two losses this year came at the hands of Michigan, by 7 points, and Ohio State, by 7 points in OT. They outscored their remaining seven Big Ten opponents, 219-79. The Badgers average scoring margin in Big Ten games only was 27.7-13.7 (+14 PPG). They outgained their Big Ten opponents by an average of 361 yards to 302 (+59 YPG).
The Badger defense leads the conference in interceptions by a mile with 18 picks in just 9 conference games. That’s a full 8 interceptions more than OSU, Northwestern, and Michigan who have 10. They also lead the nation in time of possession holding the ball for an average of 35:00 minutes per game. In main part because of the defense and the offense controlling the clock, Wisconsin moves on to play in their 4th Big Ten Championship game in six years, more appearances than any other team in the conference.
Penn State - Penn State needed Michigan to lose at Ohio State in their 12 PM ET kick in order for their game to be extra meaningful that evening. That’s exactly what happened meaning a PSU win over Michigan State would send them to their first ever Big Ten Championship game.
The Nits looked a bit shaky in the first half and went into the break down 12-10. They exploded out of the locker room in the second half and scored five TD’s on seven possessions for an easy 45-12 win. MSU had eight second half possessions and they punted on 5 of them, turned it over on downs twice, and fumbled once.
It was a really tough spot for the Spartans as they are a team that is used to going to big bowl games and that wasn’t going to happen win or lose. It was also their final road game after taking Ohio State to the wire in their home finale a week earlier. Once they got down in the second half, you could almost see the air come out of the balloon for Michigan State.
Nittany Lion QB Trace McSorely was fantastic completing 17 passes for 376 yards which came to a whopping 22 yards per completion. With his breakthrough season, McSorely became PSU’s all time single season total offense leader with over 3,300 in 2016. Penn State’s All-American caliber RB Saquon Barkley left last week’s game in the third quarter with an ankle injury and did not return. Word out of PSU is that Barkley should definitely be ready to go on Saturday.
Penn State’s two losses this season came at the hands of Pittsburgh and Michigan. In their 39-36 loss at Pitt, the Lions were down 28-7 in the second quarter and battled back to make a game of it. Their other loss, at Michigan was a whitewashing as they lost 49-10 and were outgained 515 yards to 191 yards.
Their biggest win of the year was at home vs Ohio State giving the Buckeyes their only loss of the year 24-21. Special teams were key in that game as PSU was outgained by nearly 100 yards but had a blocked punt that led the a field goal and a blocked field goal returned for the winning TD late in the fourth quarter.
Since starting the season 2-2, Penn State has won 8 straight going on 7-0-1 ATS run covering the spread by over 130 combined points during that run. The Lions average scoring margin in Big Ten games only was 37-21 (+16 PPG). They outgained their Big Ten opponents by an average of 444 yards to 347 yards (+97 YPG). Penn State had one of the most balanced offenses in the conference this year averaging 201 YPG on the ground and 243 yards passing. Since beating Ohio State 24-21, they have scored at least 39 points in each of their last five games.
Common Opponents
These two teams played seven common opponents this year (Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Purdue, and Minnesota). Wisconsin finished 5-2 in those games with losses to Michigan and OSU as we mentioned earlier. The Badgers had a point differential of +61 and a total yardage differential of +223 yards versus those seven opponents. Penn State was 6-1 facing those teams with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan. The Nittany Lions had a point differential of +65 and a total yardage differential of +239 in those games. Very similar numbers to say the least.
SEC Championship Preview
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
For the ninth time since former commissioner Roy Kramer invented the SEC Championship Game in 1992, Florida and Alabama will collide Saturday afternoon to decide the conference champ. It will be the seventh and final time these schools will meet at the Georgia Dome.
The first two SEC Championship Games were played at Legion Field in Birmingham. The event will move to the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta next year.
If Alabama wins on Saturday, it will tie the Gators for the most wins at this event with seven. UF is making its league-record 12th appearance, while Alabama will rep the West for the 11th time.
As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (12-0 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) as a 24-point favorite with a total of 41. The Gators had 12/1 odds to win outright at most spots.
This is the 10th time a team has been a double-digit favorite at the SEC Championship Game. The underdog has posted a 4-5 spread record in those nine previous games. This line, assuming it holds, will be tied for the highest in the game’s history. Florida was a 24-point ‘chalk’ over Danny Ford’s Arkansas squad in 1995 when the Gators won 34-3. They put the game away late in the first half when Ben Hanks intercepted a pitch on an option play and ran it back 95 yards.
Nick Saban’s team completed an unbeaten regular season by winning by a double-digit margin for the 11th time this year at last week’s Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide beat Auburn by a 30-12 count as a 20-point home ‘chalk,’ while the 42 combined points fell ‘under’ the 47-point tally.
Auburn led 3-0 early and trimmed the deficit to 10-9 on Daniel Carlson’s third of four field goals from 39 yards out with 3:30 left in the first half. Alabama would score the next 17 points, however, to extend the lead to 27-9 on a 38-yard touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts to ArDarius Stewart with 5:16 left in the third. After another FG from Carlson made it a two-possession game, Adam Griffith’s 34-yard field goal with 12:46 remaining provided the last of the scoring.
Alabama’s defense limited Auburn to 182 yards of total offense, while the Tide’s offense produced 501 yards. Hurts was intercepted twice, but he also threw for 286 yards and two TDs and ran for 37 yards and one score. Stewart finished with 10 receptions for 127 yards and one TD, while Bo Scarbrough rushed for 90 yards on 17 totes.
Hurts, a true freshman, has been sensational. He has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,425 yards with a 20/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hurts is more dangerous with his legs, rushing for 840 yards and 12 TDs. Another quality trait for Hurts is his calm, especially for a freshman. The dude never gets rattled.
Damien Harris has rushed for a team-high 897 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Joshua Jacobs, another true freshman, has run for 516 yards and three TDs with a 6.7 YPC average. Jacobs also has 12 receptions for 153 yards, while Harris has 13 grabs for 105 yards and two TDs.
Stewart has 49 receptions for 774 yards and seven TDs despite missing 2.5 games. Calvin Ridley, a true sophomore who is a future star in the NFL, has 61 catches for 691 yards and seven TDs. O.J. Howard is one of the nation’s top tight ends, bringing down 35 balls for 404 yards and two TDs.
Alabama’s most notable victories have come vs. Southern Cal (52-6 at Jerry World in Arlington), at Arkansas (49-30), at Tennessee (49-10), vs. Texas A&M (33-14) and at LSU (10-0).
Alabama’s defense certainly didn’t lose a step with former coordinator Kirby Smart leaving to become the head coach at Georgia. UGA’s former DC Jeremy Pruitt returned to Tuscaloosa to take over for Smart.
Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense (247.2 yards per game), No. 1 against the run and No. 1 in scoring (11.4 points per game). This unit has future NFL players galore, including senior DE Jonathan Allen, who has recorded 52 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss, seven sacks, 13 QB hurries, two passes broken up, one blocked field goal and two TDs on fumble returns that covered 105 total yards.
Florida (8-3 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) wrapped up the SEC East by winning a 16-10 decision at LSU as a 14-point underdog two weeks ago at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Jim McElwain’s team clinched a date with Alabama thanks to an epic goal-line stand in the final minute.
However, UF had to hit the road again last week to face arch-rival Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. FSU captured a 31-13 win as an 8.5-point home favorite, breaking open a tight game when Deondre Francois found Travis Rudolph for a 46-yard scoring strike on a third-and-10 play to give the Seminoles a 17-6 advantage with 5:38 left in the third quarter.
With UF’s offense going 0-for-12 on third downs, the short-handed defense eventually gassed out and gave up a 27-yard TD run to FSU’s Freddie Stevenson early in the fourth quarter. After the ‘Noles quickly forced a three and out, their punt returner fumbled on the return and UF’s Marcell Harris recovered and went 12 yards for a TD.
UF would get the ball back with a chance to get closer, but it wasn’t to be. The offense was deplorable for four quarter other than the opening drive, but McElwain went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 2-yard line and Austin Appleby threw incomplete after getting pressured early.
Appleby will be making his sixth start of the season. UF has gone 3-2 in the grad transfer from Purdue’s five starts. Appleby has completed 60.0 percent of his throws for 964 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio.
If UF is going to hang around with the nation’s top-ranked team, it is going to need some explosive plays. The most capable candidate of providing those is true sophomore Antonio Callaway, who has produced 905 all-purpose yards on 72 touches. Callaway has a team-best 43 catches for 603 yards and two TDs. He is the only player in school history to score a TD in five different ways – kick return, punt return, run, pass and catch.
Florida has plenty of depth at the RB position, but Jordan Scarlett is the best of the bunch. Scarlett, a true sophomore, has rushed for 778 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.1 YPC. Lamical Perine, a true freshman, has run for 394 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. Perine also has eight catches for 129 yards and one TD.
Florida will be without at least five defensive starters in Atlanta. The latest starter to go down was junior DE Jordan Sherit, who will require knee surgery after being injured in the second half at FSU. Sherit has recorded 38 tackles, five tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks and two QB hurries. His play on Derrius Guice on fourth-and-goal on the game’s final play at LSU saved the game.
Other starters besides Sherit who are ‘out’ include senior safety Marcus Maye, junior LB Alex Anzalone, senior DE Bryan Cox and junior safety Nick Washington. LB Daniel McMillian and reserve DB Duke Dawson, who had a pick-six at Arkansas, are listed as ‘doubtful.’
On the bright side, star senior LB Jarrad Davis has practiced this week and will start after missing three consecutive. Davis is the team’s second-leading tackler, registering 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two sacks, four PBU and five QB hurries.
Florida is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, fourth against the pass and fifth in scoring (14.6 PPG). The Gators have two of the nation’s top CBs in Teez Tabor and Quincy Wilson. Just like UF needs at least one explosive play from Callaway, it could certainly use a pick-six from either one of these players. Tabor, a true junior, has nine career interceptions and three pick-sixes.
Alabama has won five in a row in this storied rivalry, cashing tickets at a 4-1 ATS clip. The Gators’ lone cover came in backdoor fashion at last season’s game in Atlanta. UF lost a 29-15 decision but took the money as a 17-point underdog thanks to a 46-yard TD pass from Treon Harris to C.J. Worton with 5:02 remaining. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight head-to-head meetings between these schools and four of the last five. UF’s other TD in last year’s game came on an 85-yard punt return for a TD by Callaway.
Florida owns a 3-4-1 spread record with two outright wins (vs. Ole Miss last year, at LSU this season) in eight games as an underdog on McElwain’s watch. The Gators are 2-0 ATS under McElwain with one outright victory as double-digit ‘dogs.
Meanwhile, Alabama is 7-4 ATS in 11 games as a double-digit favorite this year. The only single-digit ‘chalk’ spot came in its win at LSU. The only game Alabama hasn’t won by a double-digit margin was its 48-43 triumph at Ole Miss.
The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Alabama, going 4-1 in its last five contests. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 50.8 PPG. This is the lowest total ‘Bama has seen this season. The previous low was 46 in the 10-0 win at Tiger Stadium where the ‘under’ was an easy winner.
After cashing in five consecutive games, the ‘under’ has improved to 8-3 overall for UF. The Gators have seen their games average combined scores of 38.7 PPG.
This will be the 10th time Saban has faced a former assistant. He is 9-0 against those former staffers who went on to become head coaches.
ACC Championship Preview
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
The Clemson Tigers (11-1 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) heads back to the ACC Championship Game for the second straight season, and fourth time in the past eight years. They'll also meet the Virginia Tech Hokies (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) for the second time in the title game. The last time these sides met in 2011 it was Clemson winning 38-10 as a seven-point underdog.
The stakes are much higher for the Tigers in this game, as they are ranked No. 3 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. There is no margin for error, with Washington, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State and potentially Colorado are nipping at their heels. The Tigers need a decisive win in their first meeting with the Hokies this season, and Vegas believes they will get it, as Clemson is favored by 10 points as of Wednesday morning.
Since a stunning 43-42 loss to Pittsburgh in Death Valley Nov. 12, Clemson has rattled off a pair of resounding victories. They topped Wake Forest 35-13 on the road, and they rolled rival South Carolina 56-7 last week for their third consecutive 'over' result. Clemson's offense has never been a question, as they rank 12th in the country with 509 total yards per game while rolling up 336.3 yards per game passing, fifth nationally. They are averaging 40.0 points per game (PPG), which also has them ranked 17th in the nation. While QB DeShaun Watson gets all of the headlines, the defense is just as responsible for Clemson's success. They rank eighth in the country by allowing just 307.8 total yards per game, while allowing 17.0 PPG to rank ninth overall. The Tigers are also allowing just 180.2 yards per game through the air, sitting 12th in the country in that department.
For Va. Tech, their offense hasn't been too shabby under head coach Justin Fuente in his first season, a departure from past seasons when defense and special teams play ruled the roost for the Gobblers under head coach Frank Beamer. The Hokies have posted 453.4 totals yards per game to rank 38th, buoyed by their pass attack which ranks 39th with 261.6 yards per game. While not quite at Clemson's level, Va. Tech is humming along with 35.0 PPG to rank 35th overall. Their defensive statistics are nearly a mirror image of Clemson's offensive-to-defensive ratio. The Hokies allow just 332.2 total yards per game to rank 18th, while yielding 21.1 PPG to check in 20th nationally.
Like Clemson, Virginia Tech suffered a debilitating and surprising loss Nov. 12, falling 30-20 to Georgia Tech despite entering as two-touchdown favorites. Since that setback the Hokies rattled off a hard-fought 34-31 win at Notre Dame and they too whitewashed their in-state rival last weekend, routing Virginia 52-10. The Hokies have covered each of their past two after an 0-3 ATS run, and the 'over' has connected in each of their past two.
For the Tigers, the offense starts and stops with the Heisman Trophy candidate Watson. He has completed 67.5 percent of his 453 pass attempts for 3,626 yards, 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and he has been a dual-threat option with 439 rushing yards (4.0 yards per attempt) while finding the end zone four times with his feet. While he wasn't as prolific on the ground as he was in 2015, he is still obviously very dangerous. He tossed six touchdowns last week against South Carolina and appears to be on a mission.
WR Mike Williams missed this game last season due to injury. He finished the regular season with 79 receptions for 1,114 yards (14.1 yards per reception) while finding the end zone 10 times. Williams is far from the only threat in the vertical game, however, as TE Jordan Leggett is a force with 588 yards and five scores while racking up 17.3 yards per reception. WR Deon Cain had 30 receptions for 552 yards while pulling down nine scores, and he was the team's leader with 18.4 yards per reception. WR Artavis Scott rounds out the solid triumvirate of wideouts with 64 catches for 544 yards and five scores. Even WR Ray-Ray McCloud is a player who can be dangerous, as he had 44 catches for 434 yards with two scores, and he would have had another if he didn't drop the ball at the 1 earlier in the season in a premature celebration.
Clemson RB Wayne Gallman is a stud in the run game, coming up with 943 rushing yards (5.3 yards per rush) with 14 touchdowns. Neither Gallman or RB Tavien Feaster are much of a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, although sophomore RB C.J. Fuller proved he could be a future pass-catching option out of the backfield in the future. It will be tough sledding for all involved against a Hokies rush defense allowing 145.8 yards per game, 39th in the country.
For Va. Tech, QB Jerod Evans isn't making anyone forget Michael Vick or Tyrod Taylor anytime soon, but he had a very underrated season with 3,045 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and just five interceptions while completing 63.8 percent of his passes. He also led the team in rushing with 713 yards, 4.4 yards per run and eight touchdowns on the ground. Evans picked up the slack for a rather toothless rushing attack, with RB Travon McMillian the best of the lot with 600 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry) and just four rushing scores. In fact, Evans had the eight rushing TDs and the rest of the team managed just 12.
WR Isaiah Ford was a top-notch option in the receiving game, leading the team with 949 yards with 13.8 yards per grab. He also tied for the team lead with seven scores. His partners in crime, WR Cam Phillips and TE Bucky Hodges, will need to be accounted from by the Clemson defense as well. Hodges led the team with 14.2 yards per catch while tying Ford with seven scoring grabs. Phillips averaged 13.4 yards per catch and can be a big-time playmaker. Both Hodges and Phillips each found the end zone in each of the final two regular season games.
Virginia Tech K Joey Slye posted 20 field goals and 108 points on the season, including a field goal of 47 yards. He had moderate range and reliable accuracy. Clemson's Greg Huegel is not terribly dependable in the kicking game, and he had 18 fewer points than in 2015, finishing with just 13 field goals and 56 extra points. Like Slye, Huegel's long was 47 yards in the field goal department. The kicking game might not play a huge factor in this game, but if it does the edge is slightly in Virginia Tech's favor.
Betting Trends to Watch
The Tigers have covered each of their past seven neutral-site games, and they're 5-0 ATS in their past five games played in the month of December. However, they're also just 1-4 ATS in their past five league games and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. Clemson is also 1-5 ATS in their past six games played on field turf.
Virginia Tech has struggled against the number, going 1-4 ATS in their past five neutral-site battles while posting a 1-4 ATS mark in their past five following a straight up win.
As far as totals are concerned, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five overall for Clemson, and 4-0 in their past four against teams with a winning overall record. In the past seven league games the 'over' is 5-2 for Clemson. In games played on field turf, the over is 4-1 in the past five for the Tigers, too.
For Va. Tech, the 'over' is 4-0-1 in the past five neutral-site assignments, while going 6-2 in their past eight games in the month of December. However, the 'under' has cashed in 18 of their past 25 games played inside the conference.
In this series, the underdog has cashed in four of the past five meetings, although the favorite hit in the most recent meeting Oct. 20, 2012 in Death Valley with Clemson coming out on top 38-17 as a 7 1/2-point favorite. The 'under' also hit in that meeting, and is 5-1 in the past six games played between these two sides.
NCAAF Week 14
Baylor lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread) after a 6-0 start; their QB is gone, they’ve allowed 548+ TY in four of last five games, giving up 47.6 pts/game during their skid. Home team won last four Baylor-West Virginia games, with an average total of 104.3 (yes, 104.3). Bears lost last two visits here 41-27/70-63. Mountaineers are 3-2 in last five games after a 6-0 start; they’re 2-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 15-1-24-27 points and a loss to Oklahoma. Big X home favorites are 10-13 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.
TCU beat Kansas State 41-20/52-45 last two years, gaining 553/543 TY. Favorites are 2-2 vs spread in last four series games; teams split last two played here. Horned Frogs are 1-5 vs spread as a favorite this year, 0-4 at home; they became bowl eligible LW with 31-9 rout of rival Texas. K-State is 3-1 as an underdog this year, with road losses (2-3 SU) by 13-1-21 points. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in their games this year. Big X home favorites are 10-13 vs spread. Last four K-State games went over; under is 5-1 in TCU’s last six games.
New Mexico State lost five of last six games but is 3-2 vs spread in last five; they’re 2-4 as a road underdog this year, losing away games by 16-20-46-32-42-19 points. South Alabama needs a win to become bowl eligible; they’re 0-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 SU at home vs I-A teams, with odd home upset of San Diego State. Under is 4-0-1 in last five New Mexico State games, 5-3-1 in South Alabama games this year. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-12 against the spread this year.
Georgia Southern beat Troy 42-10/45-10 last two years, running ball for 746 yards in the two games, but Eagles are having rough year (4-7) this year while Trojans are 9-2, 2-1 vs spread as a road favorite, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread. GSU lost its last four games, allowing an average of 33.5 pts/game- they’re 1-8 vs spread in last nine games, 1-3 as an underdog this season. Under is 5-2-1 in Troy’s last eight games; Georgia Southern’s last three games all went over. Sun Belt home underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this year.
UL-Lafayette won seven of last eight games with UL-Monroe, in series where underdog is 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven meetings. Ragin’ Cajuns won last five visits here, with four of five wins by 7+ points. ULL needs win to be bowl eligible; they’re 2-3 on road with two OT losses, with wins by 24-7 points (1-1 as a road favorite). ULM is 4-7 but covered its last three games; they’re 4-4 as an underdog this year, 1-0 at home. Over is 4-1 in ULL road games, 8-0 in last eight ULM games. Sun Belt home underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this year.
Oklahoma is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Oklahoma State; underdogs covered three of last four meetings in the Bedlam Rivalry. State won 38-35 in last visit here in ’14, snapping a 5-game skid in Norman. Sooners ran ball for 304-344 yards in last two series games. Cowboys won seven in row after a 2-2 start; they’re 3-1 on road, 2-1 as a road dog, with only loss 35-24 at Baylor. Oklahoma won its last eight games after a 1-2 start; they’re 3-2 as a home favorite this year. Over is 5-2 in last seven OSU games, 1-3 in Sooners’ last four games. Big X home favorites are 10-13 vs spread this season.
Arkansas State covered six of last seven games but had 5-game win streak snapped at ULL last week; ASU is 2-3 on road (1-1 as road favorite), with wins by 15-32 points- they’re on road for 4th time in last five weeks. Texas State lost its last seven games, was outscored 199-44 in its last five. Home side won last three Arkansas State-Texas State games; Red Wolves lost 45-27 (-6) in last visit here two years ago. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 5-0 in last five TSU games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.
Georgia State is 3-8, but 3-4 in last seven games; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games, 4-1 as a road underdog this year, with road losses by 34-6-14-10-3 points. Idaho covered its last six games; they’re 7-4 and headed to a bowl, scoring 36 pts/game while winning last three games behind QB Linehan (son of Cowboys’ OC). Vandals are 2-0 as a home favorite this year. Under is 6-3 in last nine Georgia State games (0-2 in last two games), 2-4 in last six Idaho games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-12 vs spread.
Louisiana Tech (+2) upset Western Kentucky 55-52 at home October 6, throwing ball for 454 yards; Tech lost 41-38 here LY. Louisiana Tech/Western Kentucky are #1/#2 in country in yards/play; there are rumors that WKU coach Brohm is taking Purdue job, not sure if that factors in here. Bulldogs are 3-1 vs spread as an underdog this year; they had won 7 in a row before losing as a 14-point road favorite at So Miss LW. WKU won its last six games, scoring 51.5 pts/game- they’re 3-2 as a home favorite. Over is 8-2 in Tech’s last ten games, 5-2 in Hilltoppers’ last seven. C-USA home favorites are 15-14 vs spread this season.
Temple covered its last ten games, is 4-0 vs spread as an underdog. Navy won/covered its last four games, scoring 66-75 points in last two games while running ball for 480-496 vs disinterested defenses. Middies lost when a) Air Force stopped their option and b) when USF used superior speed to run for 412 yards. Temple won its last six games and hasn’t allowed more than 165 YR in any of its last eight games. Middies have Army rivalry game next week. Last four Temple games stayed under; six of last seven Navy games went over. AAC home favorites are 12-12 vs spread.
Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten SEC title games. Florida split its last four games, losing 31-10 at Arkansas, 31-13 in their rivalry game at Florida State LW; Gators are traveling for 4th time in last five weeks- they’re 1-2 as an underdog this year. Alabama covered its last six games- they’re 8-2-1 vs spread this year, winning last three I-A games by a combined score of 91-15. Crimson Tide whacked Florida 29-15 in this game LY, outgunning Gators 437-180. Under is 5-0 in last five Florida games, 3-1 in last four Alabama games. SEC favorites are 26-25 vs spread this season.
San Diego State scored TD on last play of game here two weeks ago, but went for two points and win- they failed, losing 34-33; Cowboys are 4-3 in last seven series, 4-2 in last six meetings played here, where temps are expected to be in teens Saturday, not good for San Diego kids. San Diego State won this game LY; this is Wyoming’s first appearance in Mountain West title game. Both teams got crushed as favorites LW, Aztecs losing 63-31 at home to Colorado State, Wyoming losing 56-35 at New Mexico. Last five Aztec games, seven of last eight Wyoming games went over total.
Clemson needs win to get spot in 4-team national playoff; Tigers scored 91 points in winning last two games since 44-42 home loss to Pittsburgh. Clemson is 2-4 vs spread in its last six games, 4-4 when laying a double digit spread this year- they won this game 45-37 over UNC last year. Virginia Tech is 9-3 but lost to Syracuse, Ga Tech; Hokies scored 86 points in winning last two games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year, 3-2 vs bowl teams this year. Underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine ACC title games. Over is 3-2 in Tech’s last five games, 5-2-1 in Clemson’s last eight.
Penn State won/covered its last eight games since a 49-10 loss at Michigan Sept 24; Nittany Lions are 2-1 as an underdog this year- they’re 5-2 vs bowl teams. Wisconsin won its last six games, is 9-2-1 vs spread this season, 3-1 in games with single digit spread (PSU is 5-1 in games with single digit spread). Badgers are also 5-2 vs bowl teams. These teams haven’t met since 2013. Penn State is playing in this game for first time, Wisconsin for 4th time in last six years (2-1 in first three appearances). Over is 4-1 in Penn State’s last five games, 3-0 in Wisconsin’s last three.
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