College Football Betting News and Notes Week 5

Betting Recap - Week 4
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

College Football Week 4 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 41-14
Against the Spread 26-27-1
Home-Away
Straight Up 30-25
Against the Spread 26-27-1
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-24

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Duke (+21, ML +800) at Notre Dame, 38-35
Idaho (+14.5, ML +475) at UNLV, 33-30 OT
Colorado (+13.5, ML +425) at Oregon, 41-38
Buffalo (+13.5, ML +450) vs. Army, 23-20 OT

The largest favorites to cover

Missouri (-48) vs. Delaware State, 79-0
Alabama (-42.5) vs. Kent State, 48-0
Houston (-31) at Texas State, 64-3

Top 25 Notes

Clemson kicked off the week with a 26-7 road win at Georgia Tech Thursday night for the second straight cover after opening 0-2 ATS in their first two outings. The Tigers defense is on a roll, allowing a total of seven points in the past two games. The 'under' is now a perfect 4-0 for Clemson on the season. ... We've seen this before. Mississippi builds a huge lead to start in a high-profile game. However, this time the story was different, as the Rebels didn't fritter away that big lead. They jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead over Georgia and kept their foot on the gas this time around. After big leads to FSU and 'Bama, the Rebels weren't going to do it this time around, winning 45-14. ... It was a battle of Top 10 teams between Michigan State and Wisconsin, but only one team showed up. The Badgers rolled to their second high-profile win of the season, topping Sparty 30-6. The Badgers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Wisconsin's defense is allowed 11.8 points per game (PPG), as the 'under' is 3-1.

Tennessee finally snapped their losing skid against rival Florida, although it didn't start out looking that way. The Gators entered with an 11-game winning streak in this series, and jumped out to a 21-3 lead at the half. However, the second half it was all Vols, outscoring the Gators 35-7 en route to a big win and a cover, which didn't look possible early on.

Louisiana State headed for the Plains to take on Auburn. The home team won without scoring a touchdown for the first time since Sept. 13, 2008 when the Tigers topped Mississippi State 3-2. LSU also lost Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette to an ankle injury, although he was able to appear later in the final drive, mostly as a decoy. LSU appeared to have a touchdown in the back corner of the end zone for a miraculous win, but after further review the Tigers were unable to get the play off before the play clock hit :00, and after LSU celebrated, it was time for Auburn and its fans to celebrate in an unlikely and amazing finish.

Michigan rolled to a 49-10 win over Penn State in their conference opener. The Wolverines improved to 3-1 ATS, while the 'over' is now a perfect 4-0. Next up for the Wolverines is the biggest test to date, as Wisconsin pays a visit to the Big House next Saturday.

Big Five Conference Report

Virginia Tech told East Carolina enough is enough, snapping the six-game win streak by the Pirates against the ACC. The Hokies built a 38-0 lead at halftime and never looked back, rolling to a 54-17 win. Since Va. Tech was crushed at Bristol Motor Speedway by Tennessee, the Hokies covered for a second straight game. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for the Gobblers. ... Duke picked up an unbelievable road victory at Notre Dame for what head coach David Cutcliffe called the biggest win in school history. The Blue Devils snapped a two-game skid and non-cover streak, and have renewed hope heading into their next home game against Virginia next Saturday. The Cavaliers won their first of the season, topping Central Michigan. The Cavs are also 2-0-1 ATS over their past three.

Nebraska earned a hard-fought 24-13 road win at Northwestern to move to 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS overall. The 'under' result was the third in four outings for the 'Huskes heading into next weekend's game against Ilinois. ... While Minnesota failed to cover for the second time in three games, but they pushed aside Colorado State to run their record to 3-0 SU. The Gophers will travel to Happy Valley next weekend trying to stay unbeaten against a Nittany Lions team which is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS. ... The 'over' is 4-0 in Penn State's four games, and they have allowed at least 27 points in each of the past three, giving up 39.3 PPG during the span.

Baylor improved to 4-0 and posted their first cover of the season in an impressive 35-24 win over Oklahoma State. While their 1-3 ATS mark is surprising, it's nothing compared to the fact the 'under' is now 4-0 in four games for the Bears. ... Iowa State posted a 44-10 victory against San Jose State to get off the schneid and win for the first time in four tries. The Cyclones also covered the second straight outing. ... West Virginia managed a 35-32 win over Brigham Young at FedEx Field. While the Mountaineers are 3-0 SU, they slipped to 1-2 ATS.

Arizona forced overtime in their game against Washington, but the Wildcats were unable to pull off the monumental upset. The Wildcats were able to earn the easy cover, their first in four tries. The 'over' hit for the third time in four gams for 'Zona, and their late TD led to a bad beat (see below). ... Colorado earned a huge win at Oregon to improve to 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, and the 'over' has hit in each of the past three. In their three victories Colorado is averaging 47.0 PPG. ... Stanford posted a 22-13 win at UCLA, 22-13, as the Cardinal improved to 3-0 SU/ATS. While Christian McCaffrey gets all of the headlines, it is their defense which has been impressive in wins over K-State, USC and UCLA. They are allowing just 12.0 PPG against three top-notch opponents, and now they'll head to Seattle for a Pac-12 showdown at Washington next Friday.

Kentucky earned its second straight win, topping South Carolina 17-10 in a defensive slog. It was the first cover of the season for the Wildcats, who also snapped a three-game 'over' streak. Kentucky had allowed at least 42 points in their first three games, but obviously found their stride on defense in this one. ... Alabama absolutely trucked an undermanned and overwhelmed Kent State squad, 48-0. 'Over' bettors weren't happy with the second half (see below), but the Tide were able to improve to 3-1 ATS, and 3-0 ATS in non-conference games. ... Vanderbilt might want to consider a move to Confernece USA. They topped Western Kentucky 31-30 in OT. They're now 2-0 SU/ATS against teams from Conference USA, and 0-2 SU/ATS against Power 5 teams.

Mid-Major Report

South Florida crashed back to Earth in a 55-35 setback against Florida State at the Ray Jay. The loss snapped a 3-0 SU start, and was also the first non-cover for the Bulls. The 'over' is now 3-1 for USF, thanks mostly due to their offense. They have scored 35 or more points in each of their four outings this season, but they hadn't allowed more than 20 points in a single game until the 'Noles blew them up for 55. ... Cincinnati bounced back with a 27-20 win over rival Miami-Ohio, although the Bearcats continue to win ugly. They're 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS with the 'under' 3-1 in their games so far. ... Houston routed Texas State to stay unbeaten at 4-0 while improving to 3-1 ATS. Surprisingly, it was the first 'over' result in four games for the Cougars.

In Conference USA it was North Texas posting a 42-35 overtime win at Rice. While it was the first win for the Mean Green against an FBS team this season, they have now covered three in a row. ... Southern Mississippi got untracked with a 34-7 victory at Texas-El Paso, moving to 2-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. The Golden Eagles will host Rice next Saturday in Hattiesburg. ... Old Dominion picked up the home win against Texas-San Antonio, improving to 2-0 SU/ATS at home in two tries. Their offense is averaging 43.5 PPG at home and just 14.5 PPG on the road in two games each. The 'over' is 2-0 at home for ODU, and 3-1 in four games overall.

It was ugly week for the Mid-American Conference, with the MAC going 5-6 SU/ATS. Central Michigan and Kent State lost to Power 5 teams which is excusable. However, the loss by Bowling Green at Memphis was a black eye for the conference. It isn't so much that they lost, but how they lost. The Falcons were bombed 77-3 at the Liberty Bowl, slipping to 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, and it is the second time they've allowed 77 this season. In three games vs. FBS teams they have allowed an average of 65.0 PPG per contest. ... Buffalo scored an impressive win for the conference, topping previously unbeaten Army by a 23-20 score in overtime as 13-point underdogs. The Bulls entered 0-2 SU/ATS.

Not a good week for the Mountain West, as only Air Force and BoiseState were able to score victories. ... Fresno State nearly joined the party, blowing out to a 31-0 lead over the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa. However, the Bulldogs choke was of epic proportions, allowing Tulsa to come all the way back, force overtime and then steal one in The Valley, 48-41. It was the first cover for the Bulldogs, but this loss will be a hard one to overcome. If you had the Bulldogs +500 on the moneyline, don't drink too much tonight, OK?

Idaho might not be your first thought when thinking of the Sun Belt, but they did the conference proud with a win over UNLV, adding to the MWC's nightmare. The Vandals won outright as 14.5-point underdogs, covering for the first time in four tries. ... South Alabama almost shamed the Belt with a lost to FCS foe Nicholls State, a team who nearly knocked off Georgia earlier inthe season. However, the Jaguars escaped with a 41-40 OT. They're still 0-3 ATS since winning at Mississippi State in their opener.

Bad Beats

It was a double bad beat in Chapel Hill Saturday afternoon. Moneyline bettors of Pittsburgh felt the sting, as well as 'under' bettors, when North Carolina struck with :02 left in regulation to pick up the 37-36 victory. The TD was a crushing blow to moneyline bettors of the Panthers, who just missed out on a +240 payday. It was also a back-breaker for 'under' (66.5), who looked like they had a win in the bag until the final play.

If you had the 'under' in the game between Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulane, condolences are in order. The total was 46.5, with the Ragin' Cajuns scoring the game-tying TD with 5:55 to play in regulation to make it 16-16. After the dust cleared after 4 OTs, there was a total of 80 points on the board.

'Under' (56) were hoping Michigan would just rag the clock for a 42-10 win, but the Wolverines struck paydirt with 2:04 left in regulation to push the game to the 'over' side.

Southern California side bettors are still sick about the comeback by Utah (-3) in Salt Lake City Friday night. The Utes struck for the game-winning touchdown with :16 left in regulation, posting a 31-27 win and cover.

Boise State (-16.5) looked to have the cover at Oregon State, scoring a touchdown with 3:33 left in regulation to take a 38-17 lead. However, on the ensuing kickoff the Beavers had a 99-yard kickoff return for touchdown to grab the cover back for good. What a swing of emotions.

'Over' bettors (61) probably felt like they were on their way to an easy win in UGA-Ole Miss, as the Rebels held a 45-7 lead after three quarters. Midway through the final quarter the Dawgs struck for a touchdown, but there were no scores for the final 7:38.

Houston scored an unnecessary touchdown with 3:26 remaining in regulation to take a 64-3 lead at Texas State. It was meaningless unless you had an 'under' (63.5) ticket in your hand.

Louisville held a 59-21 lead late in the fourth quarter at Marshall, but the Herd struck with 2:41 remaining to pull within 31. For bettors who got in on the Cardinals early in the week, the late touchdown wasn't damaging. But for those who bet late and were laying 31, it turned an easy win into a push.

In that Idaho-UNLV game, the Vandalas booted a 55-yard field goal with 5:09 left in regulation to force OT, tied 27-27. Not what 'under' (61.5) bettors wanted to see. UNLV opened with a field goal, and the Vandals finished with a touchdown for a total of 63 and a late-game bad beat Vegas style.

In that Washington-Arizona game, the total was 58.5. With :17 left in regulation the Wildcats picked up a touchdown to tie the Huskies 28-28 and force overtime, killing the 'under' in the process.

Opening Line Report - Week 5
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

The opening line of next Saturday night’s major ACC clash suggests oddsmakers have Louisville rated higher than Clemson, a team whose only loss over the last two seasons is against Alabama in last season’s national championship. The Tigers opened -2.5 at the Wynn on Sunday, a number that factors in the Death Valley home-field advantage, which means that on a neutral field, the Cardinals would be favored.

There’s another reason the line opened where it did: bookmakers’ anticipation of bets coming in on Louisville.

"I opened (at Clemson -2.5) because I knew I was going to get Louisville money," said John Avello, vice president of race and sports at the Wynn. "I didn’t want to open it too high because I knew the Louisville backers would be there."

Sure enough, as we were talking at around noon ET on Monday, the Wynn wrote another max bet on Louisville and moved the line from 2 to 1.5. A few hours later, the game was a pick ‘em.

Public bettors "like the flashy stuff. They see Louisville scoring 70 points every game," said Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons. "They saw them just kill Florida State, and in their mind, Florida State is this great team. You can still be fooled by results at this stage of the year. The big question is, ‘is Florida State that good?’ I’m not so sure they are."

Avello and Salmons used the identical phrase to describe the public’s feelings about the high-flying Cardinals. The public is "in love with Louisville right now," both bookmakers said.

So in love with them, in fact, that they’re ready to back them against a team that has won 18 straight games at home, its last loss at Memorial Stadium coming in October 2013 against Florida State. Also, kickoff next Saturday is at 8:00 p.m. ET, giving the home crowd plenty of time to fuel up for the rowdiness. The fact that the game is at night is worth as much as a point to the spread, according to Avello.

"If they go and win this game, that tells me they’re for real," Avello said of Louisville.

The books will likely need Clemson, and in a big way.

"I think there’s going to be an avalanche of public money on Louisville," Salmons said. "I would be shocked if that wasn’t a huge decision."

Stanford at Washington (-3)

Wiseguys have been laying bigger numbers with Washington here in Games of the Year wagering at the Westgate SuperBook.

"They laid me 4.5 two weeks ago, and they laid me 5.5 last week," said Salmons, who sees this as a difficult spot for Stanford because the Cardinal are playing their second consecutive tough conference road game (they won at UCLA 22-13 last week), and they’re doing it on short rest.

While Salmons envisions this line closing around 4.5, Avello offered a different perspective.

"They really have played no one," Avello said of Washington. "Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State and an Arizona team without their starting quarterback, and they were life-and-death to win that in overtime. I’m not sure how much of a favorite they’re supposed to be over (Stanford). I do respect (Washington coach) Chris Petersen. He’s certainly taken that team in the right direction, but they’re unproven."

Avello added, "Stanford is sound defensively. They’ve played three pretty decent teams (Kansas State USC, UCLA ) and kind of shut them all down. I would expect to see (sharp) money on the dog here at +3."

Indeed, some shops were dealing 2.5 on Monday.

Wisconsin at Michigan (-10.5)

The Wynn opened Michigan -9.5, was bet to -10.5 later Sunday night, moved to -10 before the night was over, only to return to -10.5 on Monday. That is the number on most Las Vegas oddsboards as of this writing.

Again, Salmons and Avello have different opinions on which way this line will go, which may be attributable to their opinions about the Badgers.

"I think they’re pretty good, I really do," Avello said. "They’re the surprise team of the year. To shut down Michigan State that way, and I don’t care what you say about LSU, LSU is always a good team...And don’t discount the Akron team they manhandled. Akron’s not a bad team, and they took them apart. This team is really good."

To Salmons, though, Wisconsin’s wins over LSU and Michigan State have become less impressive as the season has progressed.

"Michigan looks like the same kind of team as Wisconsin except they have better athletes and they have more polish to them. They’re just better," he said.

Salmons added, "I think the game is priced right. If anything, I can see it moving up and going off at maybe 11."

Asked if he believes bettors will take the double digits, though, Avello said, "I think anybody who watches college football closely might."

Tennessee (-3.5) at Georgia

After its remarkable come-from-behind win against Florida, Tennessee finds itself laying points on the road at Georgia, who the Vols haven’t beaten in Athens since 2004 (the Vols are 0-4 at Georgia in that span). The line opened 4, but was bet down to 3.5.

Georgia’s horrific performance at Ole Miss last week, as well as the injury sustained by running back Nck Chubb, are factors in that line.

Avello’s been impressed by Tennessee so far and says the Vols are deserving of road favorite status. "They’re 4-0, and those wins are pretty good wins," he said.

Salmons suggested the betting market is overreacting to last week’s results.

"If this game was put up last week, Georgia would be the favorite," Salmons said.

LSU (-13.5) at Missouri

A few hours before Avello posted his numbers, news broke that Les Miles was out as head coach of LSU and that he’s being replaced on an interim basis by Ed Orgeron. Did the coaching change factor into Avello’s opening line of LSU -14.5?

"A little bit," he said. "I guess I would have opened it up maybe half a point higher, that’s all."

Avello added of LSU under Orgeron, "They’re not going to skip a beat here. Offensively, they’re going to open it up more. The problem is they don’t have a good quarterback, and that’s always a problem for these college teams."

Early line moves

Here are games that saw a spread swing of 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction during the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn:

N. Illinois at Ball State
After 23 hours: Ball State -2
After 23 hours: Ball State -4

Akron at Kent State
After 23 hours: Akron -4.5
After 23 hours: Akron -7

Rice at Southern Miss
After 23 hours: Southern Miss -21
After 23 hours: Southern Miss -24

Oklahoma at TCU
After 23 hours: Oklahoma -1
After 23 hours: Oklahoma -3.5

Utah State at Boise State
After 23 hours: Boise State -18.5
After 23 hours: Boise State -20.5

Here are games that saw a spread swing of 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn:

Buffalo at Boston College
After 23 hours: BC -19.5
After 23 hours: BC -17.5

Kanas State at West Virginia
After 23 hours: WVU -5.5
After 23 hours: WVU -3

Virginia at Duke
After 23 hours: Duke -6
After 23 hours: Duke -3.5

Louisville at Clemson
After 23 hours: Clemson -2.5
After 23 hours: pick ‘em

UL-Monroe at Auburn
After 23 hours: Auburn -35
After 23 hours: Auburn -33

ACC Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Notre Dame vs. Syracuse

So how many people had Syracuse entering October with a better overall record than Notre Dame? And how many had the Irish with three losses before the leaves have fully started to change? Well, after last weekend's loss at home to Duke, Notre Dame cannot overlook anybody. This line opened with the Irish favored by 13, but has quickly fallen to just 10. The public is loving the Orange, who enter 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral-site games. Syracuse is also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against teams with a losing overall record, for which the Irish certainly qualify. Notre Dame is just 1-4 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 on fieldturf. They're also 3-7 ATS in their past 10 following a straight-up loss.

Miami-Florida at Georgia Tech

Miami heads to Atlanta for their second road game of the season. They have had a couple of weeks to prepare for this game after their road trip two weeks ago to Appalachian State. Georgia Tech was tripped up at home against Clemson last Thursday and will also be well rested. The last time these teams met was a 38-21 win in Miami Nov. 21, 2015. The U is 5-1 ATS in its past six games overall, and 13-3 ATS in their past 16 following a straight up win by 20 or more points in their previous outing. Georgia Tech is just 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games, 2-10-1 ATS in the past 13 overall and 1-8 ATS in the past nine against a team with a winning overall record. The Ramblin' Wreck is also 0-4-1 ATS in the past five against ACC foes.

Virginia at Duke

After Duke lost back-to-back games to Wake Forest and Northwestern people were ready to write off the Blue Devils for this season, as they thought it was the end of Duke's miraculous bowl run. But they went to South Bend and pulled off the biggest win in school history, topping Notre Dame 38-35 for their first win and cover against an FBS school this season. Duke has been having some issues on the defensive side of the ball, and their offensive line hasn't been a strong suit. They're still just 1-5 ATS in the past six ACC games. Virginia picked up its first win against Central Michigan, 49-35 in Charlottesville last weekend. The Cavaliers are 2-0-1 ATS over the past three games, and the 'over' was the first of the season in four tries. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, with the Cavaliers 2-7 ATS in the past nine meetings, including 0-4 ATS in their past four trips to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham.

Buffalo at Boston College

Buffalo hits the road for Chestnut Hill looking to build upon its exciting win over Army in overtime last weekend. It was Army's first cover, as they had lost their first two outings against FCS Albany and at Nevada. The Bulls are just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and the cover against Army was their first in the past six overall. Boston College is just 12-27 ATS in their past 39 games, although they did cover against UMass in their most recent foray outside of the conference, and they're 3-1-1 ATS in their past five against non-conference foes.

North Carolina at Florida State

In the ACC undercard leading up to Louisville-Clemson, it's the Tar Heels invading Tallahassee to tangle with the Seminoles in an intriguing cross-division matchup. North Carolina enters as 11-point underdogs, and if they're going to win outright they will need to find a way to step up on defense and find a way to stop the run. Despite their struggles on the defensive end, UNC is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a winning overall record, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven road outings against a team with a winning home mark. FSU bounced back with a resounding win at South Florida after getting trucked at Louisville two weeks ago. The 'Noles enter 5-1 ATS in their past six at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, with the underdog going 5-1 ATS in the past six. UNC is 5-1 ATS in its past six trips to Tally, too.

Wake Forest at North Carolina State

Wake Forest ran its record to 4-0 with a win at Indiana last weekend, picking up a victory despite the fact QB Kendall Hinton and RB Cade Carney were sidelined. Hinton will remains sidelined for at least a couple more weeks, but Carney is questionable with his knee issue. Wake has picked up the pace offensively, though, despite the losses to key personnel. They averaged 15.5 points per game (PPG) in the first two games, but they have averaged 35.5 PPG over the past two outings. N.C. State has won and covered both of their home games this season, averaging 48.5 PPG at Carter-Finley Stadium in two outings against William & Mary and Old Dominion. However, the Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. The 'over' is 2-0-1 this season for N.C. State. The home team is an impressive 16-5 ATS in the past 21 meetings in this series, with the Deacs 0-4 ATS in their past four trips to Raleigh.

Marshall at Pittsburgh

Marshall took it on the chin against Louisville at home, now they try to rebound against another ACC team which suffered an awful last-second loss at North Carolina last week. The Thundering Herd pushed as 31-point underdogs against the Cardinals, and they're 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against ACC teams. They're also 3-1-1 ATS in their past five non-conference games. Pitt is 1-8 ATS in their past nine home games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six overall, although late lone cover came in Chapel Hill. The 'over' is 3-0 in the past three for Pittsburgh, as they have averaged 38.7 PPG while allowing 40.3 PPG.

Louisville at Clemson

In a game with huge playoff, potential national championship and even Heisman Trophy implications, Lamar Jackson and Louisville square off with DeShaun Watson and Clemson in Death Valley in a marquee game in the ACC. Louisville has scored 59 or more points in each of their four games this season, including 62.5 PPG in two conference outings. That includes a 63-20 thrashing of Florida State. The 'over' is a perfect 4-0 for the Cardinals, and they are 3-0-1 ATS in four outings this season. Clemson started off a bit sluggishly, nearly losing it all in a home outing against Troy Sept. 10. Head coach Dabo Swinney helped the Tigers right the ship, pounding FCS South Carolina State 59-0 to gain confidence for the offense, and the defense stepped up with a huge effort at Georgia Tech last Thursday, 26-7. While the 'over' is 4-0 for the Cards, the 'under' is 4-0 for the Tigers. The total is set at 67 1/2, and the Tigers are short 'dogs in their own barn. Can Louisville do it again?

Bye Week - Virginia Tech

Big 12 Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Kansas at Texas Tech

The Jayhawks were routed in Memphis two weeks ago, now head into conference play well rested but with a lot of question marks. The Jayhawks are averaging 14.0 PPG while allowing 40.0 PPG in two outings against FBS teams this season, going 0-2 ATS with two 'under' results in those games. A defense that gives up so many points in bad news against a Texas Tech offense which has scored 55 or more points in each of its three games this season. The defensive numbers of KU, and the offensive numbers of TTU make the Red Raiders look like a good pick as four-touchdown favorites. However, the Red Raiders will have to be a lot better defensively, as they have given up 113 points in the past two outings.

Baylor at Iowa State

Baylor finally picked up its first cover of the season, and they picked a good time for it in a 35-24 win against Oklahoma State last weekend. Iowa State also earned its first victory of the season a week ago, taking out frustrations on visiting San Jose State. The Bears are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven Big 12 battles, but one of those covers came last week. They're 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a losing home record. For Iowa State, they're 5-2 ATS in their past seven conference tilts, but just 6-17-3 ATS in the past 26 against teams with an overall winning record. They're also 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight home games against teams with a winning road mark. Baylor is 1-4-1 ATS in their past six trips to Ames, while the home team is 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings. The total is set at 60, and the 'under' is 4-0 for Baylor in four games this season.

Texas at Oklahoma State

The Big 12 might not have much of a chance at a playoff spot, but Texas and Oklahoma State will battle in a very important conference game in Stillwater with plenty on the line. The Longhorns enter as a field-goal underdog, looking to turn around a poor streak against the number on the road. They're 1-5 ATS over their past six road games. OK State is 0-4 ATS in their past four inside the Big 12, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall. The Longhorns have covered their past four trips to Stillwater, and the road team is an impressive 9-0 ATS in the past nine meetings. The favorite is also 14-3 ATS in the past 17 in this series.

Kansas State at West Virginia

K-State hits the road for Morgantown in a game with some potential. The Mountaineers are favored by 3 1/2, as they look to add to K-State's road woes. The Wildcats lost and failed to cover at Stanford Sept. 2, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five road games dating back to last season. West Virginia hasn't been much better lately, going 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall, and 8-17 ATS in their past 25 conference tilts. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover in six straight against teams with an overall winning record, and they're 6-20 ATS in their past 26 home games against teams with a winning road mark. K-State has covered four straight meetings, while the 'under' is 4-0 in the past four. The under is also 14-3 in West Va.'s past 17 conference tilts, and 11-3 in their past 14 at home.

Oklahoma at Texas Christian

The Sooners head to Fort Worth, opening as low as a pick 'em and ballooning to as much as Oklahoma - 3 1/2. The Sooners have struggled outside of the conference, losing outright to Houston and Ohio State, but they're 6-1 ATS in their past seven conference tilts dating back to last season. They're also 25-11 ATS in their past 36 following a straight-up loss, and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. TCU is happy to turn the calendar to October, as they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight games in the month. They're also 14-5 ATS in their past 19 at home, while going 36-17 ATS in their past 53 home games against teams with a losing road mark. The underdog is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in this series, with the Sooners going 2-6 ATS over the past eight. The 'over' is 8-3 in Oklahoma's past 11, and 11-5-1 in their past 17 on the road. For TCU, the over is 4-0 in their past four home games, and 4-1 in their past five overall. However, in this series the under is 5-1 in the past six.

Pac-12 Report - Week 5
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Stanford at Washington

It's a battle of Top 10 teams when Stanford pays a visit to Seattle Friday night. Head coach Chris Petersen has the Huskies back to the pinnacle in the Pac-12, but can they take a step further with a big win over the Cardinal? Heisman hopeful Christian McCaffrey looks to keep Stanford on track for its first playoff berth. He ranks second in the country with 145.3 rushing yards per game, but might need a much bigger performance against Washington if his team is to remain unbeaten. The Cardinals stayed unbeaten against the number, but it was a bad beat of epic proportions for UCLA bettors last week. A strip sack, fumble, scoop and score with zeroes on the clock helped Stanford to a miraculous cover. The Cardinal are 5-0 ATS in their past five Friday appearances, 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning home record and 38-16-1 ATS in their past 55 conference battles.Washington is 5-2 ATS in their past seven overall, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home against a team with a winning road record. In this series the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, and the under is 5-1 in the past six in Seattle and 9-3 in the past 12 meetings overall. The Huskies are favored by three with a total of 44.

Oregon State at Colorado

Is Colorado back? Well, they won at Oregon to move to 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS on the season, serving notice to the rest of the conference that the Buffaloes are no longer pushovers. Now, they need to win a game they're supposed to against visiting Oregon State. The Buffaloes opened as a 16 1/2 point favorite and it has been bet up to 18 1/2. Oregon State is just 3-13 ATS in the past 16 inside the Pac-12, and 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against teams with a winning record. The Buffaloes are 5-2 ATS in their past seven inside the league, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven against losing teams. However, they're just 2-6 ATS in their past eight at Folsom against teams with a losing road record.

Utah at California

The Utes moved to 4-0 with a miraculous last-second victory against USC last weekend. Now, they hit the road and look to remain unblemished at Cal. The Bears are favored by two points, which might appear to be a rather curious line given the fact the Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 battles. They're also just 8-20 ATS in their past 28 home games. Utah is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 road games, but 2-5 ATS inside the past seven conference tilts. Bettors might lean to the 'over', too. The over is 6-0 in Utah's past six on the road, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight following a straight up win. The over is also 6-0 in Cal's past six overall, and 5-0 in their past five contests against teams with an overall winning mark. The under is 9-3 in Cal's past 12 inside the conference, however.

Arizona State at Southern California

Two teams going in opposite directions hook up at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum Saturday night, as Arizona State heads in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, while USC enters 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS. So naturally the Trojans opened as eight-point favorites and have been bet up into the double digits, right? The Sun Devils have covered seven of their past eight overall, and they're 7-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a losing overall record. They're also 4-0 ATS in their past four conference tilts. Of course they shouldn't have covered last week, but a kickoff return for touchdown on an onside kick helped them to the miraculous backdoor cover. Arizona State has struggled against the number on the road, going 2-7 ATS in their past nine away from the desert. USC is 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a inning record, and 1-5 ATS in their past six overall. They're also 1-6 ATS in their past seven inside the league. The Sun Devils have dominated this series against the number, going 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to USC, and 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings overall.

Oregon at Washington State

Two of the most disappointing teams in the Pac-12 do battle on the Palouse as the Ducks invade Pullman to square off with the Cougars. Oregon enters as slight road favorites at -1 1/2, looking to avoid a three-game losing streak. Oregon lost to WaZu last season in overtime, snapping an eight-game win streak against the Cougs. The last time the Ducks had a losing streak to a Pacific Northwest school from the Pac-12 was back in 2006-07. Oregon enters 22-5-1 ATS in their past 28 road games, but these Ducks are a shell of their former selves. They're 0-5-1 ATS over their past six games, and that trend paints a more accurate picture. The Cougs are short 'dogs at home, a place they're 6-1 ATS over the past seven. They're also 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games overall. In this series Oregon has failed to cover in six in a row, and they're 1-5 ATS in their past six at Pullman. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings, and 5-2 in the past seven meetings at Washington State.

Arizona at UCLA

Arizona came oh so close to stunning Washington in the desert last weekend, but they were unable to finish off the upset in overtime, falling 35-28. The Wildcats have re-discovered their offense after a slow start, averaging 37.5 PPG over the past tow outings. Of course their defense has allowed more points than the previous weekend in each of the past three affairs. UCLA was winning and covering against Stanford for nearly the entire game last week, but the Bruins blew it in the fourth quarter and allowed Stanford to steal one. Now, Arizona and UCLA battle in what amounts to an elimination game, as a second conference loss this early likely means no chance at a trip to the Pac-12 championship game. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in the past six overall. UCLA is 0-4 ATS in the past four at home, and 0-6 ATS in their past is overall. In this series the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the past nine, with the home team 9-4 ATS in the past 13. The Wildcats have failed to cover in four straight meetings. UCLA is a 13 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

Saturday's Best Bets
By Sportsbook.ag

College Football Week 5 Ranked Underdogs with a Chance

Now that conference play has fully arrived, we will see some great weekly mathcups between ranked opponents. That means that there will be some ranked underdogs out there on the board and many of them will win the game outright.

This week we've got six ranked teams catching points this week, with two of them (Wisconsin, Clemson) being featured in Top-10 matchups.

Three others (Utah, TCU, Texas) are getting points against unranked foes (always a concern), while the final game is the Tennessee/Georgia game in a battle of Top-25 foes.

None of these underdogs are getting more than the +10.5 points Wisconsin is on the road against #4 Michigan, so expect some very entertaining, tight affairs.

That being said, here are two games that college football bettors should be willing to take a little longer look at the underdog when they are breaking down the games this weekend.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: #11 Tennessee (-4) vs. #25 Georgia (+4); Total set at 53

It was a tail of two halves for Tennessee last week as they finally were able to stop the losing streak against rival Florida with 38 unanswered points between the late stages of the 2nd quarter and final five minutes of the game.

Much has been made about that Tennessee/Florida rivalry and how the Gators have owned it this century, but the Vols were able to snap it in dramatic fashion a week ago.

Now the Vols head out on the road to face a Georgia team that looked absolutely awful in a 45-14 loss to Ole Miss a week ago. It's unlikely that bettors who had viewed those two SEC contests would have any faith in Georgia this week, yet the spread is only a single score.

That fact alone has be believing that the odds makers believe Georgia will have a strong bounce back effort this week, win or lose. The Bulldogs catch Tennessee off a huge emotional high in this spot and that could hurt the plethora of bettors looking to lay the points with the road side here.

Tennessee may be 4-0 SU, but they've yet to play a complete 60 minutes of sound football and eventually that will catch up with them. Considering Tennessee is on a 7-18-1 ATS run after covering the spread, Georgia is 5-2 ATS after a loss, and the underdog in this rivalry is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four years, taking a long hard look at grabbing the points with the Georgia Bulldogs this week could very well be rewarded.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: #22 Texas (+3) vs. Oklahoma State (-3); Total set at 72

Texas had a week off to regroup after suffering their first loss @Cal two weeks ago and now many are hesitant to back them against the typical powerhouses in the Big 12. After all, Oklahoma State comes into this one unranked after losing their last game themselves; falling to 2-2 SU in the process.

While taking unranked or lower ranked home favorites in college football is a solid strategy overall, this Texas team is for real and the time off to mourn their first defeat and get hungry to rebound had to have served them well.

It also doesn't hurt Texas' chances here knowing that the road team has gone 7-0 SU and ATS the last seven times these two teams have hooked up, including a 30-27 win by OK State last year as -2.5 point favorites. These two have alternated wins since the start of the 2011 season and this year's Longhorns squad is very capable of keeping that streak alive.

NCAAF: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

UL Monroe at Auburn

Auburn Tigers opened a whopping -33.5 point favorites vs UL Monroe Warhawks. Rather generous as Tigers 1-8 ATS as double digit chalk at Jordan Hare Stadium, 1-3 laying 30 or more points. Additionally, Tigers 3-8 ATS skid in non-conference games. Warhawks 4-1 ATS handed 25 or more points, 5-0-1 ATS vs non-conference.

San Jose State at New Mexico

Lobos have had an extra week to prep and should be extremely motivated after loss at Rutgers last game. Lobos also have revenge motive from loss against Spartans last season. San Jose without QB Kenny Potter due a leg injury, its defense under fire giving up 39.5 PPG on 482.2 yds/game expected a Lobo romp. Lay the expected -9.0 points at bet365.com, Lobos are 14-5 ATS following a bye week, 9-3 ATS following a loss previous game, Spartans are a money-burning 1-9 ATS as visiting dogs.

Clemson at Louisville

The eyes of most college football fans as well as those with a penchant for sports gaming will be on the ACC Showdown between host Clemson Tigers and visiting Louisville Cardinals. Petrino's squad opened 3.0 point dogs but money has come in on Louisville and Cardinals are currently 2.0 point road favorite at bet365.com.

Louisville (4-0, 3-0-1 ATS) lead by duel threat Lamar Jackson notching 1330 PY (13 TD), 526 RY (12 TD) are averaging a nation best 63.5 points/game on 682 total yards. Cardinals whopping offensive overshadows a solid defense allowing 22.5 PPG on 278.2 total yards.

Clemson also out of the gate at 4-0, (2-2 ATS) are not as productive offensively putting up 33.5 points/game on 452.5 total yards but defense its moniker, the Tigers are surrendering just 11.0 points/game on 218.5 total yards split between 125.8 passing, 125.8 rushing.

Clemson won both meetings since Louisville joined the conference topping Cardinals 20-17 at Papa John's Stadium last season as 5.0 point road chalk and 23-17 here at Clemson Memorial Stadium in 2014 handing Cardinals 8.5 points of offense.

Clemson are grabbing points in front of the home audience for the first time since the 2013 campaign but it's well to note, Tigers have failed in the roll last five times going 1-4 ATS. On the other side, Louisville has thrived in enemy territory laying points posting a 6-2 record against the betting line and the

NCAAF Week 5

Penn State is 2-2, giving up 91 points, 667 RY in its two losses, both on road. Lions are 15-12 in last 27 games as home fave, 0-2 this year- they won four of last five games with Minnesota, with 20-0/44-14 wins in last two here- last game here was in ’09. This is teams’ second meeting since ’10. First road game for Gophers, who are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road underdog.

Last 9+ years, Kansas State is 20-12-1 as road underdog; they lost 26-13 at Stanford in only road game this year- they outgained the Cardinal by 62 yards. Wildcats won last four games with West Virginia; they were underdog in three of the four; Wildcats won 55-14/26-20 in last two visits here. WV is 11-15 as home favorite under Holgorsen; they gave up 983 TY in two I-A wins this year. BYU ran for 280 yards in WV’s 35-32 win in Landover LW.

Miami beat up on three stiffs to start season, now move up into ACC play. Hurricanes won six of last seven games with Georgia Tech, with five of six wins by 15+ points. Hurricanes are 2-3 in last visits here. Tech was held to 95 RY in 26-7 loss to Clemson LW; Jackets are 3-6 in last nine games as a home underdog. Favorites are 6-2 in last eight series games. Hurricanes play Florida State next; better not look past this game.

Wisconsin held LSU/Michigan State to combined 20 points in pair of upset wins- they held Spartans to 75 rushing yards LW. Badgers covered five of last six as an underdog vs Michigan, won three of last four games SU vs Wolverines; teams last met in 2010. Wisconsin had 586 yards rushing in last two series games, 48-28/45-24 wins. Michigan hasn’t had close game yet; 45-28 win over Colorado was closest game, when Buffs’ QB got hurt when game was closer. Michigan is 7-3 as home favorite under Harbaugh, 3-1 this year. Badgers are 6-2 in last eight games as a road underdog.

Clemson held Louisville to 272-264 TY in 20-17 (-6), 23-17 (-9.5) wins over Louisville last two years; Cardinals are scoring 58.5 pts/game in 4-0 start, with 34/31 point wins at Syracuse/Marshall. Louisville is 6-2 as road favorite under Petrino. Tigers are an unimpressive 4-0, scoring 25 mpg in its three I-A games, though two of those were on road. Clemson is 13-13-1 as home favorite last 4+ years, 26-21-1 overall under Swinney. Syracuse passed for 293 yards vs Louisville; Watson is by far, the best QB they’ve faced this season.

Underdogs are 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 Navy-Air Force games, 6-0 in last six played here; Middies lost two of last three visits here, are +8 in turnovers in last four series games (+4 LY). Falcons are 6-2-1 in last nine games as home favorite, 1-0 this year. Navy had LW off while Flyboys won tough 27-20 game at MW rival Utah State. Middies won only road game 21-14 at Tulane, are 24-9 as road underdogs the last decade. Mountain West teams are 10-18 vs spread out of conference, 3-4 as home favorites.

Georgia is home underdog for first time since 2011, 4th time in last 11 years (0-2-1 vs spread). Tennessee had huge comeback at home vs nemesis Florida LW, now goes between hedges to play Georgia; Vols lost last four visits to Athens, with underdogs covering last four in series (average total, 74). This is first true road game for Tennessee; over last decade, they’re 11-4 as road favorites. Dawgs gave up 971 PY in splitting pair of SEC road games last two weeks; they got whacked 45-14 at Ole Miss LW, after escaping Mizzou with 27-26 win.

Utah rallied late LW, pulled out emotional 31-27 home win over USC; Utes are 4-0 with two close wins, beating rival BYU 20-19- they won only road game 34-17 (-13) at San Jose State. Utah covered its last six games where spread was 3 or less points; since ’10, Golden Bears are 5-10 in games with spread of 3 or less. Cal is 4-9-1 as home favorite under Dykes; Utah covered six of its last seven games as a road dog. Bears scored 40-50-41 points in last three games and lost two of the three. Home side won last five series games; Utes lost 34-10/29-21 in last two trips to Berkeley, last of which was in 2011.

Home side lost last seven Texas-Oklahoma State games (favorites 6-0-1 vs spread); Longhorns won last eight visits to Stillwater. Texas had LW off after 50-43 loss to Cal- they’ve allowed 47-50 points in two of three games and have Oklahoma rivalry game on deck next week. OSU allowed 34.3 pts/game losing losing two of last three games; they got beat 35-24 (+7.5) at Baylor LW. Cowboys are 26-10 as home favorite last 8+ years (1-1 this year), 3-7-2 in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less. Texas is 1-4 as a road dog under Strong, 5-7-1 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.

Wake Forest is 4-0 after upsetting Indiana LW; Deacons are 9-4 as double digit underdog last 2+ years, already have road wins at Duke/Indiana this year, but they’ve also lost last four visits to Raleigh, with three of four losses by 29+ points. Favorites covered five of last seven Wake Forest-NC State games; Wolfpack won three of last four meetings, all of which were decided by 15+ points. State has 604 rushing yards in last two games with Wake- they had LW off, play Notre Dame/Clemson next two weeks. Wolfpack is 8-4 as double digit favorite under Doreen. Hard to tell lot about State, since they’ve played soft schedule so far.

USC is 1-3, losing Pac-12 games on road last two weeks; Trojans are 19-11 in last 30 games as a home favorite, 9-13 in last 22 as a double digit favorite- they won only home game this year, 45-7 (-16) over Utah State. Arizona State is 4-0 despite allowing 600+ TY in two of last three games; Texas Tech/Cal passed for 1,018 yards vs ASU- even I-A Northern Arizona had 369, but 4-0 is 4-0. Favorites covered four of last five series games with ASU 3-2 SU in those five; Sun Devils lost seven of last eight visits to Coliseum, winning 38-34 in last visit here in ’14- they won 32-28 at UTSA in only road game.

Oklahoma won four of last five games with TCU, with last three decided by 4 or less points; Sooners won two of last three visits here. OU had last week off after dismal 45-24 home loss to Ohio State, when Buckeyes ran for 291 yards in easy win. This is first true road game for Sooners who have rivalry game with Texas next week; Oklahoma is 10-5 as road favorite last 4+ years. Horned Frogs are young (3 starters back on offense); their only loss was to Arkansas in OT. TCU is 4-1 as an underdog last 3+ years, 2-0 at home. QB Hill (son of former MLB pitcher) has completed 66% of his passes this year.

Oregon allowed 76 points in pair of FG losses to Nebraska/Colorado last two weeks; Ducks allowed 1,021 TY, 488 RY in those games. Washington State (+16) upset Ducks 45-38 in Eugene LY, ending 8-game series skid. Ducks gained 500+ TY in seven of last nine series games, winning last four visits to Paloose, three by 20+ points. Underdogs covered last six series games. Coogs are 4-2 under Leach in games with spread of 3 or less points, 4-6 as home underdog; they had LW off after 1-2 start, with pair of FG losses, to I-AA team and at Boise State.

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

No. 21 Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores (+9.5, 40.5)

* Even with last week’s meltdown, the Gators still lead the SEC in total defense (221.8 yard per game, fourth nationally) and are allowing a league-best 13 points per game. Appleby, a fifth-year senior transfer from Purdue, completed 23-of-39 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns at Tennessee as Del Rio recovers from a knee injury. Better offensive line play also is needed this week, after the Gators rushed for just 19 yards on 13 attempts in the second half last week.

* Quarterback Kyle Shurmur played well down the stretch in the Commodores' rally, going 8-for-12 for 155 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and overtime. Webb leads the SEC in rushing (472 yards) and is ninth nationally after rushing for 95 yards and three touchdowns last week. Vanderbilt is allowing 452.5 yards per contest, next-to-last in the SEC.

LINE HISTORY: The point spread for this one hit the board with Florida giving 9.5 points. There were a few wobbles throughout the week (went as high as 10.5) but the line currently sits right on that opening number. The total opened at 41 and fell a half point to 40.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Commodores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-0 in Commodores last 6 games in October.
* Road team is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

No. 25 Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 70.5)

* Freshman Shane Buechele has completed 66.3 percent of his passes for 720 yards and seven TDs as the Longhorns average 44.7 points. The backfield of D'Onta Foreman (288 yards, three TDs in two games) and Chris Warren III (260 yards, three TDs) is averaging 5.6 yards per carry while backup quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has added three scores. Freshman defensive end Malcolm Roach (two sacks) could get more playing time as part of Strong's changes to the defensive personnel.

* Mason Rudolph has thrown for 1,296 yards and six TDs, connecting with James Washington (league-leading 122 receiving yards per game) for three scores. Hill (211 rushing yards, TD) had 122 yards and two fumbles in a loss at Baylor last week while Rennie Childs (158 yards) has six rushing TDs. The Cowboys have forced a league-best nine turnovers - including two interceptions by cornerback Ramon Richards - but have lost eight, including six fumbles.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma State opened as three-point favorites and by midweek the spread was bet down to -2.5. The total opened at 71.5 and came down a full point to sit at 70.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-0 in Longhorns last 8 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Road team is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-38, 60)

* Janarion Grant leads the team with 20 catches for 210 yards (not to mention 138 rushing yards and a touchdown pass) but will miss the remainder of the season with a right ankle injury suffered against Iowa. That will put more pressure on quarterback Chris Laviano (647 passing yards, five TDs) and running back Robert Martin (358 yards, one TD). Rutgers outgained the Hawkeyes last week, 383-355, thanks to 106 rushing yards by Martin, who is seeking his third straight 100-yard performance this weekend.

* The Buckeyes' defense returns only three starters from last year - as does the Ohio State offense - but the results have been extremely impressive to this point. Defensively, Ohio State has nine interceptions - four of them "pick-sixes" - and is the only FBS team not to allow a rushing touchdown all season. On the offensive side, J.T. Barrett has 10 touchdowns and only one interception, a big reason why the Buckeyes lead the nation with a plus-9 turnover margin.

LINE HISTORY: Ohio State opened the betting week as 38-point favorites over their conference rivals from Rutgers. In the middle of the week, the lofty spread actually went up slightly to -38.5 but settled back down to the opening number on Thursday evening. The total began the week at 59 but immediately dropped to 57.5. On Wednesday afternoon the total made another big move up to the current number of 60. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Scarlet Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
* Buckeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights' last 5 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes' last 6 conference games.

No. 14 Miami Hurricanes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+7, 54)

* Linemen Demetrius Jackson and Chad Thomas have combined for 10 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks while the all-freshman starting linebacker trio featuring Michael Pinckney and Shaquille Quarterman has exceeded expectations for a defense that is tied for first in sacks (4.33 per game) and No. 1 in tackles for loss (13.3). After dominating Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic on the ground, coach Mark Richt opened up the offense against the Mountaineers behind Kaaya, who threw scoring passes to veterans Stacy Coley and David Njoku while finding a new big-play option in freshman Ahmmon Richards (four catches, including a 62-yard TD). Sophomore Mark Walton is averaging 133.7 yards rushing and got the Hurricanes started with an 80-yard score on Miami's first offensive play against Appalachian State.

* Versatile quarterback Justin Thomas will look to get his team's usually reliable running attack back on track after an error-filled outing that Johnson termed "a train wreck" while also looking to improve his passing accuracy (23-of-51) in an effort to keep the Hurricanes' defense guessing. Freshman running back Dedrick Mills has emerged as the team's top rushing threat (67 yards per game, five touchdowns) and sophomore Clinton Lynch has big-play ability, averaging 12 yards on 11 carries and also scoring on a 71-yard pass play. Led by lineman Patrick Gamble (2.5 sacks), linebacker P.J. Davis (24 total tackles) and defensive back Corey Griffin (25 tackles, one interception), the defense had been solid - allowing only 31 points in three wins - prior to the first-half mess against Clemson.

LINE HISTORY: Miami opened the betting week as 6.5-point road favorites and by Monday morning that line was up to 7. The total hit the board at 49 and was bet up all week - 51.5, 52, 53 - and finally settled at its current number of 54. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Yellow Jackets are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Yellow Jackets' last 6 conference games.
* Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

No. 13 Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones (+16.5, 61)

* The Bears have led the NCAA in total and scoring offense the last three years but are off to a slow start -- for them -- averaging 42 points (24th in FBS) and 548.8 yards (eighth). Russell is the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week after passing for 387 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Oklahoma State and for the season has thrown for 1,148 yards and 13 TDs while completing 80-of-133 attempts. Tailback Shock Linwood became the school's all-time leading rusher in the win over Rice and now has 3,679 yards, third-most among active FBS players, while linebacker Aiavion Edwards leads the defense with 33 tackles.

* The Cyclones lost their first three games to open the season, including a 25-20 home loss to FCS Northern Iowa, but finally broke though in the win column for first-year head coach Matt Campbell with an impressive 44-10 victory over San Jose State last Saturday. Mike Warren rushed for 103 yards and Jacob Park (165 yards, 3 TDs) and Joel Lanning (136 yards, 2 TDs) both had big games splitting time at quarterback. The defense, which intercepted four passes, was led by safety Kamari Cotton-Moya, who had 11 tackles and an interception, and linebacker Brian Mills, who finished with six tackles, a sack and a forced fumble.

LINE HISTORY: Baylor opened the betting week as 16.5-point road favorites and, despite a brief bump up to 17 in the middle of the week, the spread currently sits right on that opening number. The total opened at 60 and came up a point to 61 on Thursday. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games on grass.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Cyclones last 7 games following a straight up win.

No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 20 Georgia Bulldogs (+3, 52)

* Quarterback Joshua Dobbs ripped Florida’s defense for a career-best 319 yards passing and four touchdowns in winning SEC offensive player of the week, and has rushed for more than 80 yards in each of the Volunteers’ first four games. The Volunteers have five touchdown drives of one minute or less, and average 1:54 on their 16 offensive touchdown drives this season. Defensive end Derek Barnett earned SEC defensive player of the week honors after recording two sacks, three tackles for a loss and a batted pass in the second half.

* Chubb, who suffered a devastating left knee injury early in last season’s 38-31 loss at Tennessee, rushed for 57 yards on 12 carries last week before leaving. If Chubb cannot play, the tandem of Brian Herrien (78 yards last week) and Sony Michel (66 yards) will have to establish the running game and provide balance for Jacob Eason. The freshman quarterback struggled in his second road start last week, completing only 16-of-36 passes and throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as three-point road favorites and on Tuesday that line went up to 3.5. On Thursday morning some money came back on Georgia which dropped the line back to the opening number of 3. The total began the betting week at 54 before being dropped, almost immediately, to 53 and came down another full point to 52 on Thursday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
* Over is 8-2 in Volunteers last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 8-0 in Bulldogs last 8 home games.

No. 23 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (-10.5, 70)

* The Tar Heels have also struggled keeping teams off the scoreboard, permitting 30 points per game, and coordinator Gene Chizik told reporters, “We need to show up and play with a defense that looks like it can compete in this league.” The other side of the ball is not a problem, although Pitt held the Tar Heels to 18 yards rushing last week and running back Elijah Hood is averaging just 72.8 yards per game. Trubisky boasts four veteran targets with at least 183 receiving yards, led by senior Ryan Switzer’s 33 catches (16 last week) and 429 yards.

* The Seminoles rushed for at least 400 yards for the first time since 1995 (10th overall) last week (478) and sophomore Jacques Patrick showed he can be a factor in support with 124 yards against USF. Freshman quarterback Deondre Francois is completing 62.8 percent of his passes with just two interceptions and junior Travis Rudolph boasts 16 receptions for a team-high 233 yards and three scores. Florida State has not put it together on defense, yielding more than 200 yards per game on the ground, but has 13 sacks – 5.5 by end DeMarcus Walker.

LINE HISTORY: Florida State began the betting week as 11.5-point favorites. That spread was quickly bumped up to -12 before being dropped to -11 later Monday morning and was dropped even further to -10.5 on Thursday. The total opened at 69 and was bumped up to 70 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
* Seminoles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
* Over is 8-0 in Tar Heels last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Seminoles last 6 home games.

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 44.5)

* Freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook showed veteran poise in his first career start, throwing for 195 yards and a touchdown to lead the Badgers past Michigan State. T.J. Watt, who is the brother of Houston Texans star J.J. Watt, was named the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week after registering six tackles, including 3.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks against the Spartans. Offensive lineman Brett Connors will make his second straight start after an impressive performance last week while left guard Jon Dietzen (right leg) and kicker Rafael Gaglianone (back) are listed as questionable after missing the victory against Michigan State.

* The Wolverines' running back by committee approach paid off as Karan Higdon rushed for 81 yards and two touchdowns while De'Veon Smith (107), Ty Isaac (74) and Chris Evans (56) all added a TD apiece last week. Senior cornerback Jeremy Clark will miss the remainder of the season after tearing his ACL on a kickoff return in the fourth quarter against Penn State. Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh revealed he's "hopeful" that nose tackle Bryan Mone, who has been sidelined with a knee injury since the opening week, will return in time to face the Badgers while freshman defensive backs Lavert Hill and David Long are expected to see more meaningful snaps in Clark's absence.

LINE HISTORY: The Michigan Wolverines opened the betting week as 10.5-point favorites for this key Big Ten matchup. The line wobbled between -10 and -11 all week before settling back to -10.5 on Thursday evening. The total hit the board at 44 and was immediately bumped up to 45 before being dropped back slightly to 44.5 where it remained for most of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Badgers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 12-0 in Wolverines last 12 games overall.

Illinois Fighting Illini at No. 15 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20, 53)

* Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Kendrick Foster combined for 337 yards rushing on 48 carries over the Illini's first two contests but totaled only 25 yards on 10 attempts as the Broncos stacked the box and forced quarterback Wes Lunt to beat them. Lunt had a season-high 312 yards passing in the loss, but he took four sacks, committed two turnovers (including his first interception of the season) and only three of his 29 completions covered more than 20 yards. The defense has also not held up its end of the bargain after allowing -10 yards rushing and recording three takeaways in the opener, yielding 484 total rushing yards and failing to force a turnover in the two games since.

* Tommy Armstrong Jr. has flourished in his senior season - averaging a career-high 8.78 yards per attempt while also posting a 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio - and is coming off a game in which he threw for 246 yards and ran for a career-high 132 yards. After running backs Terrell Newby and Devine Ozigbo each fumbled on potential scoring opportunities in the first half, Chicago native Mikale Wilbon impressed with 55 yards on six carries as the Cornhuskers put the game away on the ground over their final two drives. Guard Tanner Farmer (high-ankle sprain) has been ruled out and big-play wideout Alonzo Moore (shoulder), who leads the team with 310 yards receiving, is doubtful for Saturday.

LINE HISTORY: Nebraska opened the week as 21-point home favorites. The line held for most of the week before taking a couple of 1/2 point drops on Thursday to settle in to its current number of -20. The total began the week at 54, was dropped to 52.5, and came back up slightly to 53 on Thursday. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Illini are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Cornhuskers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Fighting Illini last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Cornhuskers last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (+17.5, 47.5)

* The Aggies are the only team in the SEC and one of three in the nation who have passed and rushed for at least 1,000 yards, as they lead the SEC with 269.2 rushing yards per game. Texas A&M rolled up 366 rushing yards in last week’s 45-24 win over Arkansas with freshman running back Trayveon Williams and quarterback Trevor Knight leading the charge with more than 150 yards apiece. The defense was a liability a year ago but has been steady early this season with pass-rush specialist Myles Garrett leading a unit that is much-improved, especially against the run.

* The Gamecocks have taken to Muschamp’s defensive philosophy, allowing a respectable 17.3 points per game and forcing six turnovers over the past two games. The offense has not been as effective, as freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain has not thrown an interception but has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with two touchdowns. The ground game has been even worse, as the Gamecocks have averaged a paltry 2.95 yards per carry.

LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened the betting week as 17-point road faves and their line was bumped up to 17.5 early in the week - the spread has not moved since Monday. The total opened at 47.5 and hasn't moved at all as of Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
* Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in Aggies last 6 road games.
* Under is 9-1 in Gamecocks last 10 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Oklahoma Sooners at No. 19 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (+3.5, 69.5)

* The Sooners are averaging 35.3 points per game behind Mayfield, who has passed for 793 yards and seven touchdowns against two interceptions after accumulating 3,700 yards and 36 touchdown passes last season. Sophomore Joe Mixon (235 yards, 8.4 average) has been much more productive than junior Samaje Perine (149 yards, 4.5 average) while sophomore wideout Mark Andrews has 211 receiving yards and four touchdowns on just nine receptions. Oklahoma is one of seven teams nationally without an interception and also has just five sacks while allowing an average of 31.7 points - including 33 to Houston and 45 to Ohio State.

* The Horned Frogs are averaging 42.8 points per game and junior quarterback Kenny Hill has been a multi-dimensional threat by passing for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 166 yards and six scores. Junior receiver John Diarse, a transfer from LSU, has blossomed with 13 receptions over the past two weeks, while junior running back Kyle Hicks has been solid with a team-best 314 rushing yards. Sophomore outside linebacker Ty Summers has posted 29 of his team-best 39 tackles in the past two games as a defensive unit that allowed 82 points over its first two games has given up just 23 over the last two contests.

LINE HISTORY: The unranked Oklahoma Sooners opened as 2-point road favorites against the No. 19 ranked TCU Horned Frogs. As the betting week progressed this line took several 1/2-point jumps to settle at its current number of 3.5. The total hit the betting board at 69.5 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Over is 9-1 in Sooners last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 home games.

No. 18 Utah Utes at California Golden Bears (-2.5, 65)

* Cornerback and team captain Dominique Hatfield, who had two interceptions in last year’s win over Cal, missed this season’s first three games with a knee injury but recorded five tackles last week and faces a key matchup against Cal’s top receiver on Saturday. While the Utes’ defense was expected to be among the team’s strengths, the offense has been a pleasant surprise thanks to players such as Tim Patrick, who is coming off back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. True freshman Zack Moss is averaging 92.5 rushing yards since becoming the starter two games ago, and the Utes’ offensive line didn't allow a sack last week against the Trojans.

* The Golden Bears have scored at least 40 points in each of their games but rank among the worst in the country in several defensive categories despite the play of end Cameron Saffle, who notched eight tackles and two sacks against Arizona State. While the defense remains a concern, the offense continues to put up points behind Webb and wide receiver Chad Hansen, who has six touchdowns and leads the nation with an average of 12.5 catches per game. As good as the offense has been, the Golden Bears still need more production from their running game along with wide receivers Demetris Robertson and Melquise Stovall.

LINE HISTORY: Cal opened the week as one-point home favorites and that line was bumped up to -2 on Wednesday before being bumped another 1/2 point to -2.5 on Thursday. The total opened at 67, went up slightly to 68, took a sharp drop to 65.5 on Thursday afternoon, and settled down to its current number of 65. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Utes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Golden Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Over is 6-0 in Utes last 6 road games.
* Over is 6-0 in Golden Bears last 6 games overall.

Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35.5, 57.5)

* The Wildcats are effective on the ground with an average of 196.8 yards per game as both junior Stanley "Boom" Williams (464 yards, 8.0 average) and freshman Benny Snell (209 yards, 6.3 average) have played well. Junior quarterback Stephen Johnson made his first career start last Saturday and went 11-of-19 passing for 138 yards in a victory over South Carolina and he may hold the job the rest of the season after Drew Barker's back injury leaves his status unclear. Sophomore weak-side linebacker Jordan Jones has a team-leading 43 tackles while sophomore strong-side linebacker Josh Allen and sophomore defensive end Denzil Ware share the team lead with three sacks.

* Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has been superb while passing for 727 yards and five touchdowns and adding 251 yards and three scores on the ground. If Harris doesn't play, freshman Joshua Jacobs is in line for increased duty after producing 97 yards and two touchdowns on just 11 carries versus Kent State. The Crimson Tide have allowed 59 points - 43 were in one game by Ole Miss - and thrives behind star players such as senior safety Eddie Jackson (nine career interceptions), senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (three sacks), senior weak-side linebacker Reuben Foster (team-best 29 tackles) and senior strong-side linebacker Ryan Anderson (three sacks).

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as big 34.5-point home favorites over Kentucky and that line was bumped up even further throughout the week to settle in at -35.5. The total opened at 57.5 and, as of Friday afternoon, has yet to move off the opening number. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
* Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Crimson Tide last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

Memphis Tigers at No. 17 Mississippi Rebels (-14.5, 69)

* Ferguson was named American Athletic Conference Offensive Player of the Week despite playing only the first half of last weekend's thumping of the Falcons; his 359 yards passing was the 11th-highest single-game mark in school history, while his six passing touchdowns fell one short of Lynch's school record. Anthony Miller tallied 10 catches during last year's upset and leads the team with 17 receptions this season, while leading rusher Doroland Dorceus needed only nine carries to accumulate 117 yards versus Bowling Green, joining Miller as one of 11 Tigers this season to score a touchdown. After recording one takeaway against Southeast Missouri State in the opener, Memphis has forced 10 turnovers the last two games and is tied for fourth in FBS with 11.

* Chad Kelly continued his assault on the Rebels' record book during Saturday's victory over Georgia, completing a TD pass for the 17th straight game to break Eli Manning's school record while also moving past Archie Manning into sixth place on the total yardage list with 5,901. Evan Engram leads all FBS tight ends with a SEC-best 26 catches and 397 yards receiving, the latter of which is good for 13th among all players in the country. Senior defensive back Derrick Jones ran back Ole Miss' first interception of the season 52 yards for a touchdown last weekend - only one of four turnovers forced by the team this season - while junior linebacker DeMarquis Gates is one of nine SEC players with at least 30 tackles.

LINE HISTORY: Ole Miss opened the betting week for this matchup as 14.5-point home favorites. There was some movement down to -13.5 early in the week, but the point spread returned to its opening number of -14.5 by Wednesday and still sits at that number on Friday afternoon. The total hit the betting board at 65.5 and rose sharply to 69 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. SEC.
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Rebels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

No. 24 San Diego State Aztecs at South Alabama Jaguars (+18.5, 51.5)

* Pumphrey justifiably has received most of the credit for the Aztecs’ hot start, but sophomore quarterback Christian Chapman also has played well with six touchdown passes - including three to wide receiver Mikah Holder. The offense is averaging 39.3 points and 442.7 yards per contest, while the defense ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards allowed per game (107.6) since the beginning of the 2015 season. Linebacker Calvin Munson has recorded 34 tackles to lead a unit that includes defensive end Alex Barrett (four sacks) as well as shutdown cornerbacks Damontae Kazee and Derek Babiash.

* Dallas Davis threw for 302 yards but was intercepted four times in last week’s win over Nicholls while playing through a case of turf toe suffered on Sept. 17 in a loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. Xavier Johnson, the team’s leading rusher, ran for 142 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s win over San Diego State but could miss Saturday’s contest due to a sprained ankle suffered in last week's victory. The defense is allowing an average of 28 points and will need another strong effort Saturday from safety Kalen Jackson and linebacker Roman Buchanan, who are tied for the team lead with 33 tackles apiece.

LINE HISTORY: San Diego State opened as 20-point road favorites and that line steadily fell all week to settle in at 18.5 by Thursday afternoon. The total hit the board at 52 and got as high as 53 before settling down to 51.5 on Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Aztecs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Jaguars are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in Aztecs last 10 games in October.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Jaguars last 9 home games.

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals at No. 3 Clemson Tigers (+1, 67)

* Jackson is widely considered the runaway leader in the Heisman Trophy race, having accounted for 25 touchdowns (13 passing, 12 rushing) through four games. Running back Brandon Radcliff has topped 100 yards rushing in three straight games, combining with Jackson to lead the nation’s No. 3 rushing attack at 318.2 yards per game. The Cardinals’ huge offensive numbers have overshadowed a strong defense, which has held three of four opponents under 300 total yards.

* If any team is up to the task of quieting the Cardinals’ offense, it might be the Tigers, who are coming off a dominant defensive effort after holding Georgia Tech to 124 total yards in a 26-7 victory. Clemson ranks third nationally in total defense and has been especially tough against the pass, allowing just 125.8 yards per game through the air. Watson has put up solid passing numbers, but the Tigers could use more of a contribution from running back Wayne Gallman, who has averaged just 44.3 rushing yards over the past three games.

LINE HISTORY: This is the big matchup that everyone has been waiting for all season. Clemson opened the betting as 3.5-point home favorites but the betting public hammered Louisville and forced some drastic line moves throughout the week. The spread was dropped from -3.5 to -2 almost immediately after release and on Monday the books dropped it all of the way to a Pick 'Em. On Tuesday that Pick 'Em fully jumped the fence and Louisville were installed as 2-point favorites. As of Friday afternoon the spread was beginning to come back again and Louisville currently sits as 1-point faves.

The total began the betting week at 67.5, took a slight bump to 68, and settled back down to 67 on Friday. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 conference games.
* Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games overall.

No. 16 Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+6.5, 52)

* While the offense had its struggles against Wisconsin, Dantonio has to be concerned about his defense, especially with two of the unit’s most productive players – Riley Bullough and Jon Reschke – dealing with injuries. Bullough, a senior captain at linebacker, missed the game against the Badgers and is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, while fellow LB Reschke will be out for a “significant time period” with an ankle injury, according to Dantonio. Shane Jones started for Bullough against the Badgers and will likely see time whether Bullough plays or not, while Andrew Dowell, who started for Reschke when he missed the opener against Furman, will also see his playing time go up.

* The Hoosiers are coming off a huge game passing the ball, with Lagow throwing for 496 yards and WR Ricky Jones setting career highs with eight catches for 208 yards. But to keep Michigan State’s ferocious defensive line from simply pinning their ears back and rushing Lagow every play, the running game must improve from last week’s 115-yard outing. The Spartans don’t give up many yards on the ground, but look for the Hoosiers to feed Devine Redding and other backs the ball early to at least establish the threat of a running attack.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan State opened the week as 7.5-point road favorites. The point spread went up as high as 8.5 early in the week but settled all of the way down to 6.5 by Wednesday. The total opened at 53.5 and dropped down to 52 by Thursday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

Big Ten Report - Week 5
By ASAWins.com

Wisconsin at Michigan (-10.5)

Michigan: Penn State had scored 30+ points in each of their first 3 games before Michigan held them to 10 points last week. Wolverines dominated winning 49-10 outgaining PSU by 324 yards. Their offense is clicking scoring 45 or more points in each of their first four games. It will be strength on strength here as they now face a Wisconsin defense that has allowed only 3 offensive TD’s in 4 games this season. The offense has been as balanced as anyone in the country averaging 238 YPG passing & 230 YPG passing. The defense will look to slow down Wisconsin’s running game and they’ve been very good at doing that for the most part this year. In 3 games they held their opponent to 81 yards rushing or fewer with the one aberration being their game vs UCF where the Knights gashed the Wolverines for 275 yards on the ground. Michigan did pick up a key injury in last week’s win over PSU as starting CB Jeremy Clark injured his knee and is out for the season. Much has been made of the Wolves fairly easy schedule to date but they have a chance to prove they are worth their ranking by beating #8 Wisconsin in the Big House this week (Michigan’s 4th straight home game). Surprisingly Michigan is 0-11 their last 11 games vs top 10 teams with their last win coming 8 years ago in 2008.

Wisconsin: Unlike those that might be questioning Michigan’s early competition, the same cannot be said for Wisconsin. After upsetting Michigan State on the road last week 30-6, the Badgers have now beaten two top 10 teams in their first 4 games (also beat LSU). Freshman QB Alex Hornibrook made his first career start and was very solid. We were told his accuracy was the most impressive thing as he battled Bart Houston in pre-season camp. That has shown to be the case in game action as well as Hornibrook has completed 34 of his 48 passes for a 71% completion rate. RB Corey Clement returned after sitting out the previous game but Wisconsin is still banged up at that position with Taiwan Deal and Bradrick Shaw still questionable. Kicker Rafael Gaglianone is now out for the season with a back injury. His absence didn’t end up affecting last week’s game although is replacement Andrew Endicott did miss an extra point. The Badger defense took a huge hit this week when LB Vince Biegel injured his foot in practice and will be out for 2 to 4 weeks. We’ll see if the UW defense can keep up their dominant season with Biegel on the sideline. The Badger defense kept MSU’s offense out of the endzone last Saturday. It was the 2nd time in 4 games that the UW defense did not allow an offensive TD. They have allowed only 3 offensive TD’s in 4 games this year which has led to just 11.7 PPG for their opponents. They will get a test this weekend facing a Michigan offense that ranks 4th in the nation averaging over 50 PPG. It will be strength on strength this Saturday in Ann Arbor.

Last Year: These two play in opposite divisions of the Big Ten and have not met since 2010.

Inside the Numbers: Since 1999, Wisconsin is 35-23-1 ATS as an underdog (60%). As a double digit underdog (they are +10.5 as of this writing), Wisconsin is 18-6-1 ATS. As mentioned above, the Wolverines have not beaten a top 10 team since 2008. They are on an 0-11 SU run vs teams ranked inside the top 10. Michigan dominated this series between 1965 - 2002 with a 29-3 record. Since 2002, Wisconsin has won 4 of the 6 meetings.

Minnesota at Penn State (-3)

Penn State: The Nittany Lions are really banged up on defense right now and it really showed last week when Michigan shelled them for 49 points and over 500 total yards including 326 yards on the ground. It was already the 2nd time this season that PSU’s defense allowed over 325 yards rushing in a game (the other was vs Pitt). Their 3 starting linebackers were out last week and remain sidelined this Saturday vs Minnesota. Once known as Linebacker U, Penn State’s 2-deep at that position this week consists of 2 sophomores, 1 freshman, 2 former walk ons, and a player who was not initially a LB that had to move there due to the depth issues. That could cause a problem again this week as Minnesota relies heavily on the run averaging 45 attempts for 228 YPG. That includes a running QB in Mitch Leidner which will make it even tougher on this injury plagued defense. Offensively this team put up 30+ points in each of their first 3 games but were held to just 10 last week. They had only 191 total yards on just 3.4 YPP. In the first half alone, the Nits accumulated just 50 total yards on 24 plays. Four of their six drives in the 1st half were 3 and outs and another was a 4 and out. At that point they were already down 28-0.

Minnesota: The Gopher defense has been solid through 3 games allowing just 347 YPG on 4.7 YPP. Despite those numbers, they have allowed 23, 24, and 28 points in their 3 games and those point totals should be lower based on their YPP average. Minny continues to be shorthanded in the secondary one starter suspended (Hardin) and two reserves out. Their pass defense has allowed 228 YPG this year (68th nationally) after giving up just 179 YPG a year ago (11th nationally). The problem with those pass defense numbers is this, the Gophers haven’t played any good QB’s to date. Oregon State started a transfer from Utah State, Indiana State is well, Indiana State, and Colorado State had a freshman making his first road start under center. Now they face a PSU QB in McSorley that has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in his 4 games. Putting pressure on McSorley could be compromised with Minnesota starting defensive end Tai’yon Devers who had 3 sacks last week vs Colorado State will not play in this game due to an ankle injury. Offensively they are run heavy as we noted in the Penn State analysis. They’ve been putting points on the board (almost 40 PPG) and the Gophs are tied for first in the country when it comes to offensive red zone efficiency. Minnesota has produced 10 rushing touchdowns, three passing touchdowns and a field goal on 14 possessions.

Last Year: These two play in opposite divisions of the Big Ten and have not met since 2013.

Inside the Numbers: Penn State has covered the number 16 of the last 24 times they’ve been tabbed a home favorite. Dating back to 1981, Minnesota is just 6-15 ATS as a road underdog between +3 and +7 in conference play.

Northwestern at Iowa (-13)

Iowa: The already struggling Iowa offense received a huge blow this week when WR Matt Vandeberg injured his foot in practice. Vandeberg, who was the Hawkeyes leading receiver last year and so far this season, will be out for an extended period of time, possibly the entire season. To give you an idea of his importance to the Iowa offense, he has 19 catches this year and all other wide receivers have combined for 15 catches. The Iowa offense put up only 14 points last week at Rutgers and just 21 the week before at home to FCS opponent North Dakota State. Last week’s offensive output vs Rutgers was a bit alarming as the Knights had allowed 48 & 28 points in their other two games vs FBS opponents (Washington & New Mexico). The Hawkeyes currently rank 101st in total offense and they have been outgained in 3 of their 4 games (they had more yardage than Iowa State and that’s it). This team is averaging just 356 YPG while allowing 365. It’s hard to believe with those stats that Iowa has outscored their opponents 122-54 so far this year.

Northwestern: Speaking of struggling offenses, the Wildcats are right at the top of the heap. After scoring 24 points and putting up over 400 yards for the first time in 11 games a week earlier vs Duke, the Cats fell back into their struggling ways last week at home vs Nebraska. The Huskers held NW to just 13 points dropping their season average to only 16 PPG. Overall offensively they rank 104th nationally in total offense (347 YPG) and 125th nationally in scoring offense. Mistakes were front and center as the culprit vs Nebraska last Saturday. The Wildcats missed a FG, had one drive end on downs at the Nebraska 23 yard line, and threw 2 interceptions deep in Husker territory. Poor offense is nothing new to this team as they averaged just 19 PPG on 327 YPG last season. They finished 10-3 due to a staunch defense that allowed just 18 PPG on 319 YPG. This year the defense has also fallen off as they’ve been ripped for 435 YPG which is 94th nationally. Somehow, despite allowing big yardage, opponents have scored only 17 PPG on this NW defense. The discouraging part about Northwestern’s 1-3 start is all of those games have been at home. They have won 7 of their last 10 road games so maybe getting away from home isn’t a bad thing.

Last Year: Iowa (-1.5) destroyed Northwestern 40-10 last year in Evanston. It wasn’t a fluke as Iowa outgained the Cats by almost 300 yards. Iowa put up 6.3 YPP in that win to just 2.8 for NW. The game was tight at half with Iowa leading 16-10 and the Hawks went on to outscore Northwestern 24-0 in the 2nd half.

Inside the Numbers: The Wildcats have covered 16 of their last 25 road games overall. Over the last 5 years, Northwestern has both won and covered their first road game of the season. Since 1981, Iowa is 23-10 SU and 20-13 ATS in this Big Ten series. The Hawks are 14-4 SU at home in this series (since 1980) with all but 3 of those wins coming by double digits. Iowa is a money burning 12-33-1 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more dating back to 2006.

Rutgers at Ohio State (-38.5)

Ohio State: Ohio State is 3-0 both SU & ATS and they’ve beaten the spread by a whopping 75.5 points over those 3 contests! The Buckeyes had last week off after beating up on Oklahoma 45-24 the week before. The offense continues to click despite returning only 3 starters from last year’s team. They rank 3rd nationally in scoring offense at 56 PPG and 10th in the nation in total offense averaging 545 YPG. Amazingly, this Ohio State team has now scored 40 points or more in 26 of their last 39 games. Ohio State has had 35 drives this year in which they did not commit a turnover. On those drives they have scored points on 23 of them. Not bad scoring on over 65% of your drives where you don’t turn it over. Defensively the Bucks have held all 3 opponents under their season PPG average by a combined 50 points. They may also have some extra motivation on that side of the ball as OSU defensive coordinator Greg Schiano was the head coach at Rutgers for 11 years (2001-2011) and this will be the first time he’s faced his former team. In a weird twist, Schiano replaced Chris Ash as DC for OSU after Ash took the head job at Rutgers this year.

Rutgers: Speaking of Rutgers head coach Chris Ash, he should have a decent idea of how to defend to OSU offense after facing them in practice every day last year. Having an idea what to do and implementing with the lessor talent at Rutgers are two different things. However, this team looks much better defensively this year compared to last. They are currently allowing just 362 YPG through their first 4 games which is a full 100 yards per game better than last year. Their pass defense ranks 28th nationally allowing only 181 YPG through the air. That stat is a bit skewed however as the Knights have faced New Mexico, Howard, Washington, and Iowa, only one of which is a prolific passing team (Washington). The other 3 prefer to run the ball and their passing games are not dynamic. The Rutgers defense did take a big hit last week when their best defensive lineman, Quanzell Lambert, was lost for the season. Scoring points was a problem last week as they put up just 7 points vs Iowa. That task gets tougher this week as Rutgers has to face OSU without their #1 offensive weapon, Jenarion Grant is out for the season after injuring his ankle last week. Grant accounted for 35% of Rutgers all purpose yards this year with 210 yards receiving, 138 yards rushing, 195 yards on kick returns, and 112 yards on punt returns. Tough loss for a team that will probably have to score quite a few points this Saturday to keep up.

Last Year: The Bucks destroyed Rutgers on the road last year 48-7 as 21.5 point favorites. Rutgers lone TD in last year’s loss came with just 13 seconds remaining in the game. These two have met each of Rutgers first two years in the Big Ten and OSU has won both games big outscoring the Knights 105-24 and outgaining them 1,119 to 638.

Inside the Numbers: Since the start of the 2012 season, OSU has been favored by 30 points or more 12 times covering just 3 of those games. Urban Meyer is 44-3 SU when he has more than one week to prepare for his opponent. Dating back to 1999, the Scarlet Knights have been tabbed a dog of 21 points or more 25 times. They are 7-18 ATS in those games. In their 2 years since joining the Big Ten, Rutgers has a conference record of 4-12 SU and 6-10 ATS.

Purdue at Maryland (-10.5)

Maryland: The Terps are one of 19 remaining unbeaten teams. They are also one of 5 unranked and unbeaten teams so most feel the jury is still out on Maryland. We agree. The Terps 3 wins have come against the likes of Howard, FIU, and UCF and those teams have combined to go 2-10 so far this year. Maryland is off a bye and their game two weeks ago vs UCF went to overtime. Maryland won the game 30-24 but they were outgained by 75 yards. UCF ran 18 more offensive plays in that game as well. In that game, freshman QB Tyrrell Pigrome was inserted for one play in OT and he ran for a 24 yard TD and the win. Pigrome was under center because starting QB Perry Hills injured his shoulder late in that win. Hills looks OK and is expected to start on Saturday. On defense, starting safety Denzel Conyers tore his ACL vs UCF and is out for the season. His replacement will be making the first start of his career and two freshman are now back ups at the position. The Maryland defense is allowing only 4.9 YPP but again the competition may have something to do with that. Howard is a bad FCS team and FIU is averaging only 4.6 YPP on the season. The one decent offense they played, UCF, racked up 455 yards.

Purdue: The Boilers have won 2 of their 3 games this year which is has given their fan base some optimism. While it may not seem like a big deal to most, keep in mind that coming into this year this team had won only 2 of their previous 18 games so 2 of 3 sounds pretty good. Last week they beat Nevada 24-14 but the fact is, the Boilers dominated more than the final score may indicate. They outgained the Wolfpack by over 200 yards but were -4 in the turnover margin which kept the game close. Two of those turnovers came inside the Nevada 5-yard line which took away 14 potential points. Turnovers have been a big problem for Purdue as they are -9 the last two games alone! Starting QB David Blough has already thrown 7 interceptions in just 3 games. Partly due to the turnovers, this offense has scored on just 8 of their 13 red zone attempts (61%) ranking them 124th nationally. The defense is allowing 25 PPG and while it’s early, it is much better than last year’s 36 PPG allowed. However, the one good offense the Boilers faced, Cincinnati, rolled up 38 points.

Last Year: Maryland joined the Big Ten just 2 years ago and these two have not yet met. Their only meeting was back in 2008 and the Terps won that game 24-7.

Inside the Numbers: Purdue has won just 2 of their last 24 Big Ten games dating back to 2013. This will be the Boilers first road game of the season and they are 9-3 ATS (75%) their last 12 away from home. However, Purdue are just 7-35 SU their last 42 road games. In their two years in the Big Ten, Maryland has never been a double digit favorite. The Terps are just 3-9 both SU & ATS their last 12 with more than a week of rest.

Illinois at Nebraska (-20)

Nebraska: The Huskers come in with a perfect 4-0 record having won 3 of their 4 games by double digits. Their offense is as balanced as they come as they are averaging 242 YPG on the ground and 243 YPG through the air. Nebraska beat Northwestern 24-13 on the road last week but the Huskers dominated more than the scoreboard showed. They rolled up 556 yards on the Wildcat D including 310 yards rushing. However, the squandered a number of scoring opportunities including not once but twice losing fumbles at the Northwestern 1-yard line. The Husker defense has been decent (not great) this year allowing 366 YPG on 5.4 YPP. Where they have been solid is in the red zone where they have allowed just 5 TD’s and 1 FG in 10 trips inside the 20 which ranks them 18th nationally.

Illinois: After whipping Murray State in their season opener, the Illini have been outscored by 39 points and outgained by 277 yards in their last 2 games and lost both (Western Michigan & North Carolina). They had a bye last week to try and straighten things out. The Illinois defense was a bright spot last year as they allowed just 23 PPG on 351 YPG. They lost many of their key starters on that side of the ball and it shows. If you subtract their game vs Murray State, the Illinois defense has allowed 900 yards on 129 plays – almost 7.0 YPP – in their other 2 games. They’ve also allowed 484 yards rushing in those 2 losses. QB Wes Lunt has been decent hitting 62% of his passes with 6 TD’s and just 1 interception this year. The problem is, the Illini rushing attack has been inconsistent at best. Sure they looked great against a bad Murray State team rushing for 287 yards, but in their most recent game vs a defense with a pulse, the Illini rushed for only 3 yards on 15 attempts. It makes it almost impossible to win with those numbers unless you have a prolific passing attack which Illinois does not.

Last Year: Illinois won just 2 Big Ten games last year and one of them was against this Nebraska team. Illinois (+6.5) topped the Huskers 14-13 in Champaign outgained Nebraska by 90 yards in the game.

Inside the Numbers: Illinois has lost 18 consecutive games vs ranked Big Ten teams. Their last win over a ranked conference opponent came way back in 2007. Illinois is just 4-15 SU the last 19 times they’ve had more than a week to prepare for a game. The Huskers have won and covered 4 of the 5 meeting with Illinois with last year being the only exception. Nebraska is 12-5 ATS the last 17 times they’ve been favored by 20 points or more.

Michigan State (-7.5) at Indiana

Indiana: The Hoosiers come into this game off a home loss to Wake Forest last week. Looking at the stats you would have never guess that IU lost the game. They put up 611 total yards to just 352 for Wake. The Hoosiers averaged 7.7 YPP while the Deacs averaged only 4.4 YPP. Indiana was up 7-0 after the first play of the game when QB Lagow threw a 75 yard TD pass. Lagow threw for 496 yards and 3 TD’s. So how did they lose? Lagow also threw 5 interceptions which led directly to 17 of Wake’s 33 points. Before last week Lagow had attempted 54 passes this season without an interception. The Indiana offense has been prolific under head coach Kevin Wilson averaging 400+ YPG in each of the last 4 seasons. They look like they will be again already averaging over 500 YPG on 6.7 YPP. The defense has been atrocious under Wilson and that’s an understatement. In his 5 seasons as head coach IU has allowed at least 33 PPG each year and at least 430 YPG each year. They look better on that side of the ball this year “just” 22 PPG but now we’ll see if that continues as they hit the meat of their schedule.

Michigan State: Sparty is coming off an embarrassing 30-6 loss at home vs Wisconsin. It was their worst home loss since 2009. The yardage was close to even but two key turnovers killed MSU. A 66-yard fumble return for a Wisconsin TD and a muffed punt attempt by MSU inside their 5-yard line led to 14 of Wisconsin’s 30 points. The key here will probably be if MSU can slow down Indy’s passing attack. The Spartans have been OK this year allowing 226 YPG passing and 7.2 yards per attempt. They did face a very good passing attack in Notre Dame and a decent passing game in Wisconsin to prepare for this one. Creating a pass rush vs Indiana will be key. The problem is MSU has only 5 sacks this year after racking up 37 last year. Making things even tougher is they will be short at LB again this week as starter Joe Reschke will be out and Riley Bullough, their team leader on defense, might have to sit again this week after missing the Wisconsin game. Offensively, look for Sparty to lean more on their running game this week. Last week the Badger stymied them for just 75 yards on 27 attempts. The Spartans will test an IU defense that has been solid vs the run this year but last season allowed over 200 YPG.

Last Year: MSU rolled at home 52-26 a year ago. However Sparty led just 31-26 with under 5:00 minutes remaining but scored 21 points in the final 4:57 to make it a blowout.

Inside the Numbers: MSU has absolutely dominated this series winning 16 of the last 18 and 25 of the last 31 overall. Sparty is also 13-4 ATS the last 17 in this Big Ten battle. If you’re looking for the outright win from the home dog, don’t count on it. IU has lost 19 of their last 20 games SU as a home underdog. That’s not all. Indiana is a terrible 1-41 SU the last 42 times they’ve been an underdog of 7 or more.

Saturday's SEC Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Tennessee at Georgia

Coming off a monster win, Tennessee heads to Athens to take on Georgia in a crucial SEC East showdown. If the Volunteers can get a victory between the hedges, they will be in a great position to get back to Atlanta for the first time since 2007.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Tennessee (4-0 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 52.5 points. The Bulldogs were +140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).

Tennessee finally snapped an 11-game losing streak against Florida at Neyland Stadium last week, scoring 38 unanswered points after falling behind 21-0 en route to a 38-28 win as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ It was a tale of two halves. The first half saw the Gators lighting up a UT secondary minus its best cover corner in Cam Sutton. Austin Appleby hit three deep balls in the first half, while UF’s defense stayed in Josh Dobbs’s face and shut down the Vols’ ground attack. After intermission, however, UT’s offense got cranked up in a hurry. On the other side, Jim McElwain and offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier went away from the aerial attack that had been so successful in the first half and the running game stalled. McElwain pointed out that poor field position was one reason why UF chose to run the ball in a third quarter that saw his team get shut out in the first-down department. Dobbs completed 16-of-32 throws for 319 yards and four touchdowns compared to two interceptions. The senior signal caller rushed 17 times for 80 yards and one TD. Jalen Hurd had 95 yards on 26 carries, while Jauan Jennings had three catches for 111 yards and one TD. The UT defense didn’t allow Florida to score in the second half until there was 4:17 remaining and the outcome had basically been decided.

For the season, Dobbs has completed 57.0 percent of his passes for 805 yards with a 10/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 241 yards and four TDs. Hurd has rushed for 365 yards and two TDs, but the junior is only averaging 4.0 yards per carry. Josh Malone has been Dobbs’s favorite target, hauling in 13 receptions for 287 yards and five TDs.

Before beating Florida, UT posted wins vs. Appalachian State (20-13 in overtime), vs. Virginia Tech (45-24) and vs. Ohio (28-19).

Tennessee is still without Sutton, who might return in (late) November from a broken bone in his leg. Two other starters, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin (shoulder) and LB Darrin Kirkland (ankle), are ‘questionable’ at UGA. Kirkland has missed back-to-back games since spraining his ankle against the Hokies. He had 66 tackles and three sacks as a true freshman in 2015. Reeves-Maybin was injured vs. Ohio and tried to play in pain last week, but he was limited to only two snaps in the second half.

Georgia is a hard team to figure out at this point. The Bulldogs trailed by nine late in the third quarter of its opener at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta vs. North Carolina. They rallied for a 33-24 win with Nick Chubb looking like his old self by rushing for 222 yards and a pair of scores on 32 carries. But in Week 2 at home vs. Nicholls, an FCS school, UGA trailed for a decent chunk of the game and barely escaped with a 26-24 win as a 53-point ‘chalk.’ Next, Kirby Smart’s team went to Missouri and had to hit a fourth-and-10 TD pass from Jacob Eason to Isaiah McKenzie for 20 yards with 1:29 remaining to emerge with a 28-27 victory. Then in Oxford last week, Ole Miss raced out to a 45-0 advantage on its way to an easy-as-hell 45-14 triumph over UGA as a seven-point home favorite.

Chubb hasn’t been able to equal his Week 1 production in the three combined games since then. He was forced out against the Rebels last week with an ankle sprain after rushing for 57 yards on 12 attempts and was kept out of practice all week. On Friday, the Bulldogs downgraded him to 'out vs. the Vols. Fortunately for UGA, it has a back-up RB who already has a 1,000-yard season to his credit. After Chubb was injured at UT last year, Sony Michel took over and finished the year with 1,161 rushing yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. Michel, a true junior, broke his arm in July and missed the opener vs. UNC. He had only three carries for three yards vs. Nicholls. Michel had 11 carries to 66 yards against the Rebels, but he’s yet to get into the end zone this year.

Eason, a true freshman, has been up and down as you would expect. He has all the tools in terms of size and arm strength, but he’s still trying to find his way and probably took a substantial confidence hit last week. Eason has connected on just 64-of-123 passes (52.0%) for 780 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target has been McKenzie, who has a team-best 21 receptions for 318 yards and four TDs.

Tennessee owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a road favorite during Butch Jones’s four-year tenure. This is obviously the first home underdog situation for first-year head coach Kirby Smart, but we’ll nonetheless point out a 0-2-1 spread record in UGA’s three games as a home ‘dog over the last 10 years.

Georgia saw its five-game winning streak over Tennessee snapped last season when the Vols rallied from a 24-3 deficit to win a 38-31 decision a 2.5-point home underdogs. It was UT’s fourth spread cover in a row against UGA, but we should point out that the previous there were from double-digit ‘dog situations. UT is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 encounters with UGA.

In last year’s come-from-behind win, Dobbs scored the game-winning TD on a five-yard run with 5:48 left in the final stanza. Dobbs was the catalyst all day, throwing for 312 yards and three TDs while also rushing for a team-high 118 yards and a pair of scores. Hurd ran 21 times for 80 yards, while Malone had five catches for 60 yards. After Chubb was injured on the game’s first play from scrimmage, Michel ran for 145 yards on 22 totes.

The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive head-to-head meetings between these SEC East rivals. The combined scores have been 69, 67, 65 and 95.

The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for UGA this year, 1-0 in its lone home games. However, we should note that all three ‘unders’ had totals that were in the 60s. As for UT, its totals have been split (2-2) and this is its first true road assignment.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Texas A&M at South Carolina

Texas A&M (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) will travel for a third consecutive week to take on South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia on Saturday afternoon. As of Friday afternoon, most books had the undefeated Aggies listed as 17.5-point favorites with a total of 48. The Gamecocks were +650 on the money line.
I spent all summer hyping this A&M squad. My thinking was that veteran grad transfer Trevor Knight would be a good fit at QB in an offense featuring four elite WRs. In addition, there was no reason to think that John Chavis’s defense wouldn’t get even better in his second year at DC helm. Although things could still turn south and such a change in fortune might lead to Kevin Sumlin taking a pink slip, that scenario is looking less likely every week. Most important, my wager for the Aggies to go ‘over’ their season win total of 6.5 is looking like an easy winner. They’ve posted wins vs. UCLA (31-24 in overtime), vs. Prairie View A&M (67-0), at Auburn (29-16) and vs. Arkansas (45-24 at Jerry World).

Sumlin’s squad pulled away from the Razorbacks in the fourth quarter last week in Arlington. Texas A&M played great goal-line defense all night. In the first half, its ‘D’ kept Arkansas out of the end zone on seven straight plays (the Hogs were given a new set of downs following a pass-interference penalty) to force a field goal. Then with the game tied at 17-17 late in the third quarter, A&M’s defense got a stop on a fourth-and-goal play that completely shifted the momentum of the game into its favor.

Following the fourth-down stop late in the third quarter, Knight hooked up with Josh Reynolds for a 92-yard scoring strike to give the Aggies the lead for good. They would score on three straight possessions en route to the spread cover as seven-point favorites. The 69 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 52-point total. Knight threw for 225 yards and two TDs without an interception and also rushed for a team-high 157 yards and two scores on 10 carries. True freshman RB Trayveon Williams ran for 153 yards and two TDs on 12 carries, while Reynolds finished with four catches for 141 yards and the aforementioned TD.

Texas A&M’s defense held Arkansas to a 3.0 YPC average. This unit is led by junior DE Myles Garrett, who has 11 tackles, five tackles for loss, three sacks and six QB hurries. Garrett is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play.

Texas A&M WR Ricky Seals-Jones is listed as ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Seals-Jones has 10 receptions for 175 yards.

For the season, Knight has connected on 75-of-141 throws (53.2%) for 1,055 yards with a 7/2 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 308 yards and five TDs while averaging 8.1 YPC. Meanwhile, Williams has rushed for a team-high 389 yards and three scores on 40 attempts for an amazing 9.7 YPC average. Reynolds has brought down 17 receptions for 370 yards and three TDs, while Christian Kirk has 21 catches for 211 yards and three TDs.

South Carolina (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) won its opener by a 13-10 count at South Carolina thanks to a 55-yard field goal from Elliott Fry late in the fourth quarter. Will Muschamp’s first team at his second head-coaching gig came up short in a Week 2 trip to Starkville, dropping a 27-14 decision at Mississippi State as a 7.5-point underdog. The Gamecocks would bounce back to edge East Carolina 20-15 as two-point home ‘chalk,’ but then they lost 17-10 at Kentucky last weekend.

In the one-possession loss at UK, South Carolina generated only 268 yards of total offense against a deplorable defense that had given up 42, 45 and 44 points in its first three games. True freshman QB Brandon McIlwain completed only 15-of-30 passes for 177 yards and his scrambling skills were negated. McIlwain had just 11 rushing yards on 13 attempts. The Gamecocks mustered merely 91 rushing yards on 35 attempts for an atrocious 2.6 YPC average. Sophomore tight end Hayden Hurst had a team-best seven receptions for 84 yards.

McIlwain has completed 47-of-91 passes (51.6%) for 533 yards and two TD passes without an interception. He has 91 rushing yards and a pair of rushing scores. McIlwain looks like a keeper and his scrambling ability will be needed against an A&M d-line that gets after passers with authority.

On his Thursday night radio show, Muschamp said WRs Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards will be game-time decisions due to hamstring injuries. Samuel has missed back-to-back games after rushing for a key eight-yard score at Vandy and catching four balls for 66 yards in the first two games. Edwards, a true freshman who has the terrible misfortune of being a Brian with a ‘y,’ is a beast and a future star. He has 17 receptions for 223 yards through four contests.

South Carolina’s defense gave up 27.5 points per game in 2015 and returned only four starters once star senior LB Skai Moore was ruled out for the season due to neck surgery this past summer. But the Muschamp Effect has been in full force through four outings. The Gamecocks are giving up plenty of yards (399.2, ranking No. 74 in the nation), but they’ve been excellent at forcing turnovers or field-goal attempts in the red zone. This is evidenced by its No. 17 ranking nationally in scoring defense (17.5 PPG).

The ‘under’ is 4-0 for the Gamecocks this season with their combined scores looking like this: 27, 35, 41 and 23.

The SEC Network will provide the telecast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

Kentucky at Alabama

As of Friday afternoon, Alabama (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) was listed as a 35.5-point favorite with a total of 57.5 points. Are you the one feeling a UK upset? Well, if so, 5Dimes is offering a 100/1 money-line return, so go ahead and get you some.

Alabama has wins vs. USC (52-6 at Jerry World), vs. Western Ky. (38-10), at Ole Miss (48-43) and vs. Kent State (48-0). The Crimson Tide had to rally from a 24-3 first-half deficit in Oxford to eventually capture a 48-43 win. The Rebels hooked up their backers as 11-point underdogs in backdoor style. They were down 48-31 late in the fourth quarter before mounting a furious rally.

Alabama has three key players listed as ‘questionable:’ WR ArDarius Stewart, RB Damien Harris and WR Robert Foster. Also, All-American LB Tim Williams is a question mark after being arrested on campus Thursday for possession of a firearm without a permit.

Jalen Hurts, a true freshman, has emerged as the QB of the present and future for Nick Saban’s program. In fact, that’s become so crystal clear that redshirt freshman Blake Barnett chose to transfer several days ago. Hurts can beat you with his arm and his legs. Through the first four games of his career, he has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 727 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio. Hurts is second on the team in rushing yards (251) with three rushing scores and a 5.6 YPC average.

Hurts’s favorite target is Calvin Ridley, a true sophomore who might be the nation’s top WR even though his numbers don’t point that out. Ridley has 20 catches for 224 yards and one TD, and he also had a key rushing TD at Ole Miss. Stewart was off to a fast start before getting injured against the Rebels. In 2.5 games, he had 13 receptions for 205 yards and three TDs. Harris has rushed for a team-best 345 yards and one TD on 40 carries. That’s good for an 8.6 YPC average.

Kentucky (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) has won back-to-back games since dropping its first two games in disappointing fashion. In the team’s lif-lifter, Mark Stoops’s team raced out to a 35-10 lead over So. Miss at home. However, the Golden Eagles rallied to capture a 44-35 win as four-point road underdogs. Then in Week 2, the Wildcats went to The Swamp in Gainesville and were dealt a 45-7 clubbing for their 30th consecutive loss to the Gators.

After beating New Mexico State 62-42 at home in Week 3, UK improved to 1-1 in SEC play by beating South Carolina, 17-10. The ‘Cats took the cash as 2.5-point home favorites thanks to Benjamin Snell’s one-yard TD plunge with 10:21 left in the fourth quarter. Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams rushed for 123 yards and one TD on 15 carries, while Snell produced 73 yards on 16 totes. Junior QB Stephen Johnson struggled, completing just 11-of-19 passes for 135 yards and one interception.

Johnson has taken over as the UK starting QB since Drew Barker was ineffective at Florida and injured his back against NM State. Barker is ‘out’ this week and might not return for a month or so. He had a 4/5 TD-INT ratio in three games. Johnson was the catalyst in the win over the Aggies, connecting on 17-of-22 passes for 310 yards and three TDs without an interception. He also rushed for 51 yards on 10 carries. For the season, Johnson is completing passes at a 65.9 percent clip for 490 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.

Williams is one of the SEC’s premier RBs. The junior has rushed for 464 yards and two TDs while averaging 8.0 YPC. Snell has run for 209 yards and five scores while averaging 6.3 YPC. Jeff Badet has eight receptions for 245 yards and one TD, while Garrett Johnson has 13 catches for 212 yards and two TDs.

Since Stoops took over in 2013, Kentucky has limped to a 5-9 spread record in 14 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, Alabama is 29-31 ATS as a home ‘chalk’ on Saban’s watch.

Kickoff on ESPN is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Sportsbook.ag updated its Games of the Year lines this week. Alabama is now favored by 12 at Tennessee, by 10 (-115) at LSU and -21.5 vs. Auburn.

Florida will be in bounce-back mode for its noon Eastern kick at Vanderbilt. As of late Friday afternoon, most spots had the Gators listed as 10-point favorites with a total of 40.5 points. Starting QB Luke Del Rio was upgraded from ‘doubtful’ to ‘questionable’ after practicing on a limited basis Thursday. Jim McElwain indicated that Del Rio might be the back-up if Austin Appleby gets injured. If he has his druthers, McElwain would like to keep the redshirts on true freshmen QBs Kyle Trask and Feleipe Franks. Two defensive starters and one starting offensive lineman are listed as ‘questionable’ – DB Quincy Wilson, DE Jordan Sherit and OG Tyler Jordan. UF owns a 3-0 spread record as a road favorite on McElwain’s watch. Vandy has taken the cash in two of the last three head-to-head meetings with the Gators. In fact, the Commodores ended a 22-game losing streak to UF with a 34-17 win at The Swamp in 2013. In last year’s encounter, a field goal in the final minute gave Florida a 9-7 non-covering win to clinch the SEC East title. As a home ‘dog under Derek Mason, Vandy has compiled a 5-3 ATS mark.

Missouri owns a 12-6 spread record in its last 18 games as a road underdog. Barry Odom’s team was listed as a 13-point underdog late Friday afternoon. Missouri sophomore QB Drew Lock has soaring confidence thanks to 1,503 passing yards that ranks him third in the nation. LSU is expected to be without star RB Leonard Fournette due to an ankle injury.