Primetime Showdowns
By Brian Edwards
Florida (4-0 straight up, 3-0-1 against the spread) will be looking to avenge back-to-back losses to Alabama in blowout fashion when it hosts the Crimson Tide at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS at The Swamp on Saturday.
Most betting shops opened Alabama (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) as a 4 ½-point favorite this past Sunday. The number was down to four by Monday afternoon, where it has stayed for most of the week. A lot of offshores went to 3 ½ on Wednesday, but most Vegas shops stayed at four, where the number was early Friday night.
The total opened at 44 ½ at most books. This number has wavered in the 44-45 range for most of the week, but the Las Vegas Hilton adjusted to 43 late Friday afternoon.
Gamblers can UF to win outright for a plus-160 return (risk $100 to win $160).
Will Muschamp’s team has won by double-digit margins in its first four games, beating FAU (41-3), UAB (39-0), Tennessee (36-26) and Kentucky (48-10). The only non-cover came in the win over the Vols as 10-point favorites when they got a late score for the backdoor push.
UF made quick work of UK in Lexington last week, racing out to a 28-3 lead early in the second quarter. The Gators stayed comfortably ahead of the 17 ½-point number the rest of the way.
Jeff Demps stole the show, rushing 10 times for 157 yards and a pair of touchdowns, including an 84-yard scamper early in the third quarter. Chris Rainey added 105 rushing yards on 15 carries.
Nick Saban’s team also covered easily as a double-digit favorite in last week’s 38-14 win over Arkansas as an 11 ½-point home ‘chalk.’ A.J. McCarron completed 15-of-20 passes for 200 yards and two TDs without an interception. Junior RB Trent Richardson rushed for 126 yards on 17 carries.
With a 10-7 lead late in the second quarter, ‘Bama got a big play from its defense when DeQuan Menzie intercepted a Tyler Wilson pass and returned it 25 yards for a TD. The Tide went ahead 24-7 early in the third quarter thanks to an 83-yard punt return for a score by Marquis Maze.
When these teams met in Tuscaloosa last year, Alabama cruised to a 31-6 win as an 8 ½-point home favorite. The previous meeting in 2009 came between a pair of unbeaten teams at the Ga. Dome for the SEC Championship. In that affair, the Tide embarrassed the Gators 32-13 as a five-point underdog.
Alabama has a 7-1-1 spread record in its last nine games against UF. It hasn’t played in Gainesville since 2006 when a Reggie Nelson pick-six lifted the Gators to a 28-13 win. However, ‘Bama took the cash as a 16-point underdog.
’Bama’s last win at The Swamp came in 1999 when Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard TD run in overtime lifted his team to a 40-39 victory as a live 16-point ‘dog.
The ‘over’ is 2-2 for both teams this year.
In the same 8:00 p.m. Eastern time slot, Wisconsin will take on Nebraska at Camp Randall on ABC. This will be the Cornhuskers’ debut in the Big Ten.
Most books, as of early Friday night, had Wisconsin (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) installed as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’ The total was in the 56-57 range, while Bo Pelini’s team was plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).
Brett Bielema’s squad is averaging 48.5 points per game and is limiting opponents to just 8.5 PPG. However, the Badgers haven’t played anything but cupcake foes to date.
Nebraska (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of foes, either. The ‘Huskers struggled to win outright as double-digit favorites in wins over Fresno St. and Washington. They finally hooked up their backers in last week’s 38-14 win at Wyoming as 21-point road favorites.
As always, Wisconsin has one of the nation’s biggest and baddest offensive lines. This group is the catalyst for a power running game with two outstanding backs, Montee Ball and James White, who both rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2010.
With a powerful running game, QB Russell Wilson is even more dangerous in play-action situations. Wilson, the transfer from N.C. St. has been nothing short of sensational, connecting on better than 75-percent of his passes with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio.
Nebraska has been known for defense on Pelini’s watch, but this year’s unit has given up 29 points to Fresno and 38 to Washington.
As for the Huskers’ offense, it’s entirely too one-dimensional. QB Taylor Martinez is completing just 50.6 percent of his throws, although we should point out his 4/2 TD-INT ratio. And Martinez can certainly get it done on the ground, as evidenced by his 421 rushing yards and seven TDs.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
According to Alabama beat writer Cecil Hurt of the Tuscaloosa News, ‘Bama sophomore LB C.J. Mosley is ‘out’ at UF with an elbow injury. Hurt reported that during a guest appearance Friday on The Paul Finebaum Show. For what it’s worth, Hurt predicted a 17-13 win by Alabama.
Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS in its last eight home games, 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games regardless of the venue.
UF’s John Brantley and UA’s A.J. McCarron both have 4/2 TD-INT ratios.
Bettors should continue to check the status of rampant injuries to North Carolina State’s personnel. The Wolfpack were missing six of its top players in last week’s blowout loss at Cincy. They are hoping to get two of those six players back Saturday vs. unbeaten Ga. Tech.
Nebraska owns a 5-2 spread record in seven games as an underdog on Pelini’s watch. The Cornhuskers have won two of those games outright.
Wisconsin is 16-13 ATS as a home favorite during Bielema’s tenure.
By covering in Thursday’s 49-42 home loss to Houston on Thursday, UTEP now owns a 10-4 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog during Mike Price’s eight-year tenure.
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in five games as a road underdog during Dabo Swinney’s four-year tenure.
Big 10 Report - Week 5
By ASA
Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Nebraska
UW: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. South Dakota St, W 59-10
UN: 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Wyoming, W 38-14
This is quite possibly the game of the year (and possibly a preview of the Big Ten Championship) for the Big Ten as two Top-10 teams matchup at Camp Randall. ESPN's College Gameday crew will be on hand as Nebraska plays its very first conference game as a member of the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened at -7, but that number quickly rose and now sits at -9.5.
Wisconsin has been the league's only consistently dominant team through four weeks, albeit against a fairly weak schedule. Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense and 6th in scoring offense with QB Wilson completing 75.8% with 11 touchdowns and RB's White and Ball with 663 rush yards and 12 touchdowns combined. Defensively the Badgers are allowing just 247 yards per game (8th nationally) and 8.5 points per game (3rd). The competition level goes up significantly this week at home, where Wisconsin is 45-4 since the start at the 2004 season and 34-3 under coach Bielema. Those three teams to beat Wisconsin at home all went on to play in BCS Bowls.
The Huskers have been quite one-dimensional on offense thus far. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead have combined for 841 rush yards (7.6 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. But Martinez is completing just 50% of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The Huskers haven't needed an effective passing attack yet as their rushing game has been sufficient through four games. Nebraska's defense hasn't been as dominant as it was supposed to be this season as it ranks 52nd in total defense and 48th in scoring defense. However, the Huskers haven't been at full strength yet as three preseason All-American candidates - DT Crick, LB David, and CB Dennard - will all play together Saturday for the first time this season.
Something to consider: Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall - a run started with a 13-point win over then-No. 1 Ohio State at home last October.
Ohio State (-3) vs. Michigan State
OSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Colorado, W 37-17
MSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Central Michigan, W 45-7
The fact that both of these squads suffered non-conference losses makes this game more intriguing. The winner will get off to a strong start in conference play while the loser has more questions to answer. The Spartans have lost seven straight to the Buckeyes and haven't won in Columbus since 1998. Only one meeting has been decided by single digits and the average win margin for OSU is 18 points per game. OSU is a much different team this time around, yet is favored by 3 points at home. MSU has yet to register a quality win, but their defense has looked dominant. Not only are the Spartans limiting yards (1st in total defense) and points (9th in scoring defense), but they're making big plays, as they showed last week by intercepting CMU's QB four times. The Spartans are averaging 39 points per game at home, but scored just 13 points in their only road game so far (a 18-point loss to Notre Dame).
OSU ranks 91st in total offense and 69th in scoring offense. Freshman QB Braxton Miller got the first start of his young career last weekend. He completed just 5-of-13 passes for 83 yards, but had two touchdowns while also rushing for 83 yards. How he reacts against a Big Ten opponent will determine how well the Buckeyes perform on Saturday. OSU plays Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois in its next three games, so a loss could send the Buckeyes reeling. Expect a big effort at home from OSU.
Something to consider: Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games (16-5 ATS as a home favorite).
Illinois (-8) vs. Northwestern
ILL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Western Michigan, W 23-20
NU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
Last year this game was played at Wrigley Field in November. Northwestern was off of a huge win vs. Iowa and was playing its first game without QB Persa (injured the previous week). Illinois netted 519 rush yards and won by 21 points. Prior to that game NU had won six of the previous eight meetings. Illinois opens as an 8.5 point favorite for this year's matchup.
Northwestern QB Persa should finally make his return for the Land of Lincoln Trophy showdown. How Persa performs in his first action since last November remains to be seen, but his presence alone should be a rousing factor for the Wildcats. Northwestern figures to be super motivated for this game: with Persa back, off of a loss with an extra week to prepare, and the fact that this is a rivalry game with a chance to knock Illinois off its pedestal.
Illinois had a flat performance against Western Michigan last week - understandable after a huge win against Arizona State the week prior - but found a way to remain unbeaten and at 4-0 for the first time since 1951 with a three-point victory. Illinois lost one 1st and one 2nd round talent from its 2010 defense. Still, the Illini rank 6th in rush yards allowed, 12th in total yards, and 13th in scoring defense.
Something to consider: Northwestern is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Big Ten games, but is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also covered eight of the last 11 meetings against Illinois.
Michigan (-20) vs. Minnesota
Mich: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. San Diego State, W 28-7
Minn: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. North Dakota St, L 24-37
Minnesota is off of a terrible loss to North Dakota State and now has to play a team that has beaten it 19 of the previous 20 meetings (since 1987). Michigan has outscored Minnesota by 22 points per game in that 20 game span and only four games were decided by less than 10 points. Michigan was favored by 20+ points in seven of those games and was 6-1 ATS. Again the Wolverines are favored by 20 points heading into this weekend.
Minnesota fell to an FCS opponent for the second consecutive year and the third time in the past five seasons with its 13-point loss to North Dakota State last week. The Gophers now have a quarterback dilemma on their hands with Marqueis Gray and Max Shortell. Gray (50.6% with 3 TD & 3 INT) remains the starter, but freshman Shortell will see time.
The Wolverines are 4-0 for the third consecutive year after a 21-point win over head coach Brady Hoke's former team - San Diego State. QB Robinson again had a big game on the ground with 200 rush yards and three touchdowns, but his deficiencies in the passing game could come back to haunt UM. The defense continues to make strides, as it has now forced 17 turnovers in four games and is allowing just 13 PPG (11th nationally).
Something to consider: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Michigan is just 3-23 ATS in its last 26 conference games.
Indiana (+16.5) vs. Penn State
IU: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at North Texas, L 21-24
PSU: 3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Eastern Michigan, W 34-6
Indiana fell behind 24-0 to winless North Texas last week before mounting a rally in the final minutes. UNT ranks at or near the bottom of every major offensive and defensive category and Indiana couldn't get a W. First-year coach Kevin Wilson still has a lot of questions heading into Big Ten play, most notably at quarterback. Wright-Baker has started every game thus far, but freshman Kiel remains neck-and-neck.
The Nittany Lions rank 8th nationally in total defense, 7th in passing defense, and 10th in scoring defense. However, this unit took a big hit last week as defensive captain and team leader LB Mauti tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.
The Nittany Lions had their best offensive game of the season last week against Eastern Michigan when they tallied 468 yards and 34 points. Co-starting QB's McGloin and Bolden combined to complete 21-of-30 passes for 335 yards and four scores. Both could see some success against this Hoosier defense that allowed passing touchdowns of 17, 32, and 83 yards to North Texas last week.
Something to consider: Penn State has never lost to the Hoosiers with a 14-0 all-time record (average margin of victory 17 PPG). PSU is 6-0-1 ATS its last seven games as a double digit road favorite.
Purdue (+12) vs. Notre Dame
PU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
ND: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Pittsburgh, W 15-12
The Boilers beat up on FCS Southeast Missouri State two weeks ago before spending the bye week preparing for Notre Dame. QB Marve returned after an ACL injury last season delayed his comeback. He completed 7-of-8 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown while splitting time with TerBush. TerBush will start against the Irish, but both will get playing time.
Purdue really needed that bye week to prepare for this, as QB Marve put it, "program defining game." Notre Dame is more battle-tested, having played three teams in the Top-25 so far. But this Irish offense has 15 turnovers through four games, and that most certainly cost them two wins. Purdue will need to convert on any forced turnovers to upset ND.
Something to consider: Purdue has lost three straight and is just 5-20 against the Irish since 1986. The Boilers have won four out of its last five games as a double digit home underdog and is 9-4-1 ATS its last 14 as a home 'dog.
Iowa - BYE
3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. UL Monroe, W 45-17
The Hawkeyes enter the bye week after an easy win against Louisiana-Monroe. QB Vandenberg has caught fire, tallying 1,095 pass yards with 10 TDs and only one INT through four games. Iowa will spend the off week preparing for a date with Penn State in Happy Valley