College Football Betting News and Notes Week 6

Big Ten betting News and Notes

After the first week of Big Ten conference play, the Big Ten Leaders division is doing just that, leading.

In cross-divisional games, teams from the Leaders Division, Illinois and Wisconsin picked up wins over Legends Northwestern and Nebraska while Michigan State of the Legends defeated Ohio State of the Leaders.

In terms of overall games, the divisions are pretty even. The Leaders (Illinois, Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State and Indiana) are 20-9 while the Legends (Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Minnesota) are 19-9.

A look at the Coaches Poll shows the Leaders with No. 5 Wisconsin and No. 16 Illinois ranked while the Legends boast three ranked teams with No. 11 Michigan, No. 15 Nebraska and No. 20 Michigan State, with Penn State also knocking on the door of the Top 25.

Dissecting the records and rankings may make things look close, but the true barometer of your division is how the favorites do, and Leaders favorite Wisconsin made the biggest statement on Saturday night against Legends favorite Nebraska.

Salt in the wound

Blowing a 28-10 third-quarter lead to No. 24 Illinois was not the worst thing that happened to Northwestern on Saturday. In the fourth quarter they blew a 35-31 lead with 1:15 to play. "Shocked," was what Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald said of his team's second-half meltdown.

That was still not the worst thing to happen to the Wildcats. Northwestern's top running back, sophomore Mike Trumpy, tore his ACL during the third quarter on a non-contact injury and is done for the season. Trumpy averaged 5.2 yards per carry. He ranked second in rushing yards behind quarterback Kain Colter, but there was no mistaking that Trumpy was a legitimate weapon in the backfield.

Coach Pat Fitzgerald attempted to play down his loss. "I thought we ran the ball pretty well without him," Fitzgerald said. "Treyvon Green and Jacob Schmidt and Adonis (Smith) are coming on. So we have guys there that have been involved." Things won't be any easier this week for the Wildcats when they host No. 11 Michigan (5-0).

Not so fast

Ohio State was in desperate need of some offensive help and they were slated to get it just in time for their showdown Saturday night at No. 14 Nebraska. Last year's leading rusher Daniel Herron and top returning receiver DeVier Posey were supposed to return from their five-game suspension this weekend. But their suspensions for accepting cash and free tattoos were extended because they also accepted too much money for summer work.

The NCAA also suspended offensive lineman Marcus Hall for the first time. None of that will make things easier on freshman quarterback Braxton Miller, who is scheduled to get the start in Lincoln.

"Braxton (Miller) is still the starter," former starter redshirt senior Joe Bauserman said. Bauserman, the starter for the first three games of the season, accounted for Ohio State's only touchdown in a 10-7 loss at the Horseshoe on Saturday. But Ohio State coach Luke Fickell remains behind Miller despite the freshman only connecting on 5-of-10 passes for 56 yards and an interception. He also finished with minus-27 yards rushing

"Things were happening fast for him," Fickell said of his quarterback. "I think maybe he didn't see the field real well."

Miller was more blunt. "Welcome to the Big Ten, Michigan State has one of the best defenses around," the quarterback said. Nebraska is a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.

Not impressed

Michigan's thorough 58-0 dismantling of Minnesota was enough to impress the pollsters, who vaulted the Wolverines from No. 19 to No. 11 in the Coaches Poll and from No. 19 to No. 12 in the AP Poll.

The Michigan locker room remains unimpressed. "Ranking doesn’t mean anything to us," senior defensive tackle Ryan Van Bergen said. "We definitely don’t think we've played up to the potential of being a No. 12 team in the country."

Coach Brady Hoke voted his Wolverines into the Top 25 for the first time this season on his coaches ballot, although, from the sound of things, he didn’t have them anywhere near the Top 10.

We're not playing the football that we need to play. We're not playing well enough," Hoke said. We're not finishing things well enough."

There might be a reason the Wolverines want to downplay this ranking. Last time the school was ranked this high was in 2007 when they were pegged as No. 5 in the preseason poll. They opened that season against Appalachian State and we all know what happened then.

Badger duo

Russell Wilson's 287 yards of total offense and three scores received a lot of the headlines after Wisconsin's 48-17 pasting of Nebraska, but a lot of credit needs to go to linebacker Mike Taylor as well. The junior linebacker recorded a career-high 14 tackles and picked off a Taylor Martinez pass.

As a unit it seems the Badger defense is undervalued. They rank 10th in the country in total yards allowed (264 yards per game) and fourth in points allowed per game (10.2 points per game). Those numbers should only improve this week when 1-4 Indiana comes to town.

Against the number

Wisconsin is one of only four teams in the country with a perfect record against the spread. The Badgers (4-0-1 ATS) along with Rutgers (4-0 ATS), Stanford (4-0 ATS) and Georgia Tech (4-0-1 ATS) have been a bettor’s best friend this season. On the flip side of that, Penn State is the only team in the country to go 0-5 ATS and believe it or not, the only team in the country to go 0-5 on over bets. Somehow the Nittany Lions are 4-1 SU.

Pac 12 Conference News and Notes
By Matt Fargo

Week Five Rewind

The Pac 12 again had a majority of disappointing games with lopsided outcomes and misleading finals.

The game of the day took place in Colorado as Washington St. came from behind to defeat the Buffaloes 31-27. The Cougars led the game early but Colorado started to take control of the game and took a 10-point lead with 5:11 left. Washington St. then made it a three-point game with 2:35 left, forced a punt and scored five plays later for the win.

USC won by a touchdown over Arizona but the game was not as close as that score shows. The Trojans jumped ahead 17-0 and the Wildcats could not keep up and was not able to close the deficit by less than a touchdown. Arizona was only outgained 582-554 but two of its first three possessions resulted in interceptions.

Washington was the other Pac 12 road winner this weekend as it had a surprisingly easy time with Utah. The Huskies easily covered as double-digit underdogs as they jumped ahead 31-7 before the Utes scored their second touchdown in garbage time with seven seconds left. The Huskies won the yardage battle 411-322.

Oregon St. jumped ahead 13-0 over the Sun Devils as all of those points were results of three Arizona St. turnovers. The Sun Devils eventually built an eight-point lead but the Beavers hung around until Arizona St. scored the final two touchdowns of the game. Oregon St. won the yardage battle 388-367 but five turnovers and 13 penalties did them in.

Stanford continues to bury the completion as the Cardinals jumped ahead of UCLA 17-0 and never looked back. They outgained the Bruins 442-343 and balance was the key as the Cardinal rushed for 202 yards and passed for 240 yards. Stanford has won all four games by at least 26 points and is a perfect 4-0 against the number.

Hot Seat?

Another week, another huge loss for UCLA. The Bruins have alternated losses and wins this season and head back home to try and keep that trend going with a win over Washington St. The Cougars have been the pleasant surprise of the Pac 12, going 3-1 including a 1-0 record in the conference following that big win at Colorado.

A loss against Washington St. could mean the beginning of the end for head coach Rick Neuheisel who came into the season on the hot seat and it is only getting hotter. No one is happy with the lack of a turnaround that he promised when coming to his alma meter four years ago.

Neuheisel said the UCLA program is "not far away." It's too bad he may not be around to see it.

Washington St. head coach Paul Wulff came into the season with a similar bit of pressure. He brought in a 5-32 record through his first three years but he has already surpassed his win total in any of those first three seasons so he is looking fine to stick around for at least another year.

The problem is that the Cougars play in the same division as Oregon and Stanford so getting out of the Pac 12 North will be a challenge.

Defensive Lack of Ability

Last week we talked about how good the conferences quarterbacks have been and that is directly related to how the defenses have played. We saw another week of high scoring games with the total going 3-2 to the over with the Cougars/Buffaloes falling under by just two points.

The defenses have been sieves this season, with only Stanford and California ranked in the top 30 in the nation in total defense and just five teams ranked in the top 50. The scoring defenses are even worse as Stanford is in the top ten but nine teams are outside the top 50 with UCLA and Arizona ranked 105th and 114th respectively.

The linesmakers will be making big adjustments if this continues and we may be able to find value in the other direction.

The over is now a profitable 20-14 on the season.

Game of the Week

California at Oregon on Thursday night. This is the lone game that has two teams squaring off with greater than .500 records, the second straight week there has been only one such game. Both the Bears and Ducks come in with 3-1 records although California is 0-1 in the Pac 12 after losing its last game at Washington.

Oregon is 1-0 in the conference following its win at Arizona in its Pac 12 opener. The Ducks won last year's meeting in Berkeley 15-13 in a defensive battle despite outgaining the Bears 320-193.

Oregon was favored by 18.5 points then and it is favored by 23.5 points at home this season. California has taken four of the last five meetings against the number while all four of the previous meetings have stayed under the posted total.

This Week In The ACC
By Marc Lawrence

Frustration Bowl

A matchup of two disappointing teams kicks off in Blacksburg where Virginia Tech looks to bounce back from it’s lethargic home loss to Clemson, while Miami Florida hopes to get its offense back in gear after gaining a mere 335 yards against Bethune Cookman last week.

UM head coach Al Golden is frustrated with the team's lack of success in short-yardage situations.

“It's unacceptable, so any criticism there is more than fair,” he said. “We have to decide what we want our identity to be there. When it's one yard, and the game is on the line, we have to get that via the run.”

To that extent the team is glad 6’ 8” 360 lb OL Seantrel Henderson is back after suffering a herniated disc injury lifting weights during the offseason. Surgery corrected the problem.

“It wasn't scary, but it put a hold on everything I was trying to do,” Henderson said. “They told me I was supposed to miss this season, so I didn't think I'd be back this fast.”

Miami has jumped from 96th in overall team defense in 2009 to 31st in 2011.

Virginia Tech boss Frank Beamer feels his offense can bounce back from its 258 yards and three-point performance against Clemson.

“We’re so close on so many plays,” he said. “As you watch the film and how we started out and as physical as we were playing, it doesn’t seem right that we only scored three points.”

The game features a matchup of Top 10 running backs with VPI’s David Wilson (128.6 rypg) featured against Miami’s Lamar Miller (127.8 rypg).

Clemson is 5-0 and ranked in the top 10 for the first time in three years. As such, head coach Dabo Swinney is guarding against a letdown this week.

"All we are is 5-0. We go lay and egg this week, people will forget about that real quick,” said Swinney.

OC Chad Morris has talking points planned to preempt any complacency as Clemson hosts Boston College (1-4, 0-2 ACC) following three straight wins against ranked opponents.

Morris notes the offense hasn't scored a TD against Boston College in two years.

Despite the surprising 5-0 beginning, Swinney thinks the team has room to improve.

“We have not really put all three phases together where we’ve been a dominant team,” Swinney said. “We’ve been winning two out of three phases.”

EJ’s Back

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher said QB EJ Manuel’s expected return to the starter's role adds "extreme athleticism" to the offense.

Manuel returned to practice Monday after he injured his left shoulder against Oklahoma Sept. 17 and missed the Clemson game Sept. 24. He says he made marked improvement during FSU's bye week.

"My range of motion, my strength, my other stuff is back, I'm feeling good," Manuel said.

Manuel is confident FSU (2-2) will be successful against Wake Forest's (3-1) defense, ranked third in the ACC (299.5 ypg).

"They do a lot of blitzing; they disguise (it) very well," Manuel said. "I think with our athletes and our speed, we'll be able to combat that pretty well."

Backup QB Clint Trickett is suffering from celiac disease, an inability to absorb nutrients properly. As a result he has changed his diet and has slowly gained weight.

Trickett, undersized at 6-2 and 180 pounds, must avoid gluten, which is found in wheat, barley, rye, and possibly oats. His diet now includes rice, beans and potatoes.

Tech’s Message

Georgia Tech is 5-0 for just the third time since 1966.

The Jackets' No. 13 ranking in the AP and coaches polls is their highest since they finished the 2009 season ranked 13th following an Orange Bowl loss. That year was also the last time Tech jumped eight spots in the polls, like they did this week. Tech has been ranked in the AP poll at least once in each of the past seven years.

RB Orwin Smith said the Techsters haven’t accomplished enough yet.

“5-0 means a lot, obviously,” he said. “We just have to keep going. In my mind, we haven't played real competition yet to really test our skills... I'm looking forward to the tough games -- Virginia Tech and Clemson. Those really are going to make a statement.”

The Jackets lead the nation in rushing (378.2) and are rank second in scoring (51.6) and total offense (587.0). A-back Smith is averaging 15.1 yards a carry, and QB Tevin Washington has thrown 10 TDs against one INT.

Maryland ranks 92nd in total defense (412.5) and 64th in scoring defense (25.5).

From The Database

• ACC Head-to-Head: Boston College is 6-1 ATS as a dog versus Clemson… North Carolina is 0-3 ATS at home versus Louisville… Virginia Tech is 12-5 ATS versus Miami, including 5-0 ATS the last five… Wake Forest is 9-3 ATS as a dog versus Florida State.

• ACC Coaches: Clemson’s Dabo Swinney is 9-3 ATS off a win in ACC games… Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson is 7-13-2 ATS at home versus an opponent off a win… Maryland’s Randy Edsall is 35-20 ATS as a dog, including 10-1 the last 11… Miami’s AL Golden is 9-3-1 ATS as a dog off a win… Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe is 16-9-1 ATS as a home dog, including 11-4 the last 15.

• STAT OF THE WEEK: Virginia Tech is 10-3 ATS at home in games off an immediate home loss, including 6-0 ATS versus an opponent off a win.

College Notebook
By Bruce Marshall

Arizona State…The anchor of the Sun Devil OL, C sr. Garth Gerhart, limped off of the Sun Devil Stadium field last Saturday vs. Oregon State in the first half with a twisted ankle and did not return to the fray. ASU's offense struggled somewhat in his absence, with a handful of bad snaps to QB Brock Osweiler helping to short-circuit a few drives, although the Sun Devils won anyway, 35-20.

Bowling Green... The Falcons were a bit shorthanded for their trip to Morgantown last week, as top rusher Anthon Samuel (leg injury; 414 YR and 6.8 ypc. helped by an earlier 96-yard TD run) and top receiver Eugene Cooper (academic issues; 21 catches thru first four games) were both absent in the lopsided 55-10 loss to WVU.

BYU... Cougars could have a QB controversy brewing as soph Jake Heaps was pulled last Friday vs. Utah State in favor of senior Riley Nelson, a onetime Utah transfer who began his career at USU in 2006. Nelson, who was splitting time early in 2010 with Heaps, led a late Cougar comeback with a pair of 4th Q TD passes, including the game-winner to Marcus Mathews (via a tip) in the final seconds of a 27-24 Cougar. No word from HC Bronco Mendenhall who might be starting this week vs. San Jose State.

Florida... Check status of QB John Brantley, who had completed 10 of 16 passes before twisting his knee and ankle just before halftime of last Saturday's 38-10 loss to Alabama. The game got out of hand in the second half when Brantley was sidelined and HC Will Muschamp inserted touted true frosh Jeff Driskel, who completed only 2 of 6 passes in Charlie Weis' offense. An extended absence of Brantley would hurt the Gators, who must travel to LSU this week.

Indiana... Starting QB Edward Wright-Baker, nursing a sore knee, missed last week's game vs. Penn State, although some Big Ten observers believe first-year HC Kevin Wilson was ready to hand the job to RS soph Dusty Kiel anyway after he led a belated fourth-quarter rally the previous week at North Texas. Kiel went the distance vs. the Nittany Lions but wasn't overly impressive, completing 22 of 45 for 182 yards as once again the Hoosiers could not score a TD until the 4th Q of an eventual 16-10 loss.

Kansas State... Touted Tennessee transfer RB Bryce Brown, who was expected to do big things for the Wildcats this season, was a no-show at team practices last week and for the game vs. Baylor. Personal issues are being cited as the official reason, although Brown had relinquished most of his carries to 5'8 dynamo John Hubert, who ran for 166 yards in the Sept. 24 win at Miami-Florida and another 57 YR last week vs. the Bears from Waco. Rough-hewn QB Collin Klein led all K-State rushers with 113 yards in last week's thrilling 36-35 win over Art Briles' Baylor side.

Kentucky... HC Joker Phillips looks like he wants to pull ineffective starting QB Morgan Newton, who struggled again last week at LSU when completing only 6 of 20 passes for 57 yards in the Cats' 35-7 loss. Frosh backup Maxwell Smith, however, doesn't appear ready to contribute after completing only 1 of 5 passes in his short stint before Newton got another chance in the late going and led a belated TD drive in the final minutes that at least gave UK the spread cover at Baton Rouge.

LSU... Former starting QB Jordan Jefferson has been reinstated to the Tigers team after charges against him resulting from a bar fight on August 19 were reduced to a misdemeanor. Jefferson then saw limited action last weekend vs. Kentucky, and even scored a TD on his first snap on 1-yard run, although HC Les Miles insists he has no inclination to rotate QBs or bench starter Jarrett Lee, who completed only 8 of 21 passes butt for 169 yards in the 35-7 win over UK.

Louisville... Starting QB Will Stein's shoulder injury suffered Sept. 17 vs. Kentucky forced him to be scratched from last Saturday's 17-13 loss to Marshall. Unlike vs. the Wildcats, however, true frosh Teddy Bridgewater did not come to the rescue vs. the Thundering Herd, suffering a pair of picks and being held to just 16 YR on 15 carries in the 4-point loss.

Minnesota... The season has gone pear-shaped for the Gophers, already losers at home to New Mexico State and North Dakota State and whose first-year coach Jerry Kill was admitted to the hospital for the second time in less than three weeks with another bout of seizures prior to last week's game at Michigan. Kill was released from the hospital and coached last Saturday's game at Michigan, but maybe wished he hadn't in a 58-0 loss. Minny had to go the whole way with true frosh Max Shortell at QB after starter MarQueis Gray was ruled out with an injured toe on his left foot. Shortell completed only 11 of 22 passes and was sacked three times as the Gophers failed to convert any of their eleven third-down chances at Ann Arbor.

Ole Miss...Maybe Houston Nutt has found his QB. Juco redshirt Randall Mackey became the Rebs' third starter at the position this season last Saturday at Fresno State, passing for 214 yards and running for 35 more while providing a heretofore absent spark to the Ole Miss attack in a 38-28 win over the Bulldogs.

Nevada...PK Anthony Martinez missed last Saturday's game at Boise State with a hip injury, although strong-legged RS frosh Allen Hardison, a prep soccer standout, filled in admirably with a field goal in the 30-10 loss to the Broncos. Wolf Pack was also minus RS frosh QB Cody Fajardo, who suggested at a much longer look from HC Chris Ault when running for 139 yards at Texas Tech Sept. 24, due to shoulder injury. Third-stringer Mason Magleby tossed Nevada's only score of the day with a 53-yarder to Rishard Mathews in the last minute of the 20-point loss.

New Mexico... HC Mike Locksley was dismissed shortly after the Lobos' 48-45 OT loss to Sam Houston State on Sept. 24. Locksley, who had earlier survived a couple of unwelcome off-field incidents, was canned by AD Paul Krebs after not only the loss to the FCS Bearkats, but because a 19-year-old family friend was charged with DWI while driving a car registered to Locksley. "I just didn't see a good ending to the story," said AD Krebs after the dismissal. Defensive coordinator George Barlow will be the interim HC for the rest of 2011. although his regime began very inauspiciously with a 42-28 loss to rival new Mexico State last Saturday, UNM's third loss in a row to the Aggies.

New Mexico State... The Aggies, who had already lost QB Andrew Manley for the season with a knee injury, were also minus top WR Taveon Rogers (19 receptions and nearly 20 yards per catch, plus 26.3 per kick return) last Saturday at New Mexico. But it was all no problem for the Aggies, who rolled to a 42-28 win behind QB Matt Christian, who started eight games in 2010 and tossed 4 TD passes vs. the Lobos.

North Texas... Starting QB Derek Thompson was held out of last Saturday's game at Tulsa because of a lower-body injury (and we thought only the NHL referred to injuries in such general terms). Backup Andrew McNulty got the start vs. the Golden Hurricane but was picked off twice for TDs by Tulsa defenders in an eventual 41-24 loss. The Mean Green rallied late for the backdoor cover behind RS soph QB Brent Osborn, who tossed a pair of TDs in the final five minutes to make the score line a bit more flattering for UNT.. Thompson's status for FAU this week is unknown.

Northwestern... Sr. QB Dan Persa, out since last November with an Achilles tendon injury, made a triumphant return to the Cat lineup last week at Illinois when throwing 4 TD passes, but pulled himself from the game late in the 4th Q when apparently re-aggravating the injury. Backup Kain Colter was in for NU in its belated final drive of a bitter 38-35 loss to the Illini.

Ohio State... Beleaguered interim HC Luke Fickell, whose assignment is doubtful to last beyond this season, has suggested that he might re-open the QB derby prior to this week's game at Nebraska. And that would include RS soph Kenny Guiton and RS frosh Taylor Graham in the mix along with sr. Joe Bauserman and true frosh Braxton Miller. All in the wake of last Saturday's ugly 10-7 home loss to Michigan State when the struggling Braxton was pulled in the second half. Bauserman fared only slightly better, completing 7 of 14 passes, but did contribute to OSU's only TD of the day on a 33-yard TD pass with 10 seconds to play. The Buckeyes managed just 178 yards of offense vs. the nation's top-ranked defense from East Lansing.

Oregon State... RB Malcolm Agnew, who gained 223 yards in the opening shock loss to Sac State but was subsequently sidelined by a pulled hamstring, missed his third straight game last Saturday when the Beavers lost at Arizona State by a 35-20 count.

Penn State... Joe Paterno's QB merry-go-round continued last week at Indiana as Shades rotated Rob Bolden and Matt McGloin with little success until McGloin, in his second chance of the game, fired a 74-yard TD pass to Derek Moye immediately upon re-entering the game in the 3rd Q of an eventual 16-10 win over the Hoosiers.

Rutgers…QB controversy in East Brunswick? Maybe after touted true frosh Gary Nova relieved ineffective starter Chas Dodd in the second half last Saturday at Syracuse and promptly paced the Scarlet Knights to a heart-stopping 19-16 double-OY win. Nova completed 14 of 24 passes and a TD and led a late Rutgers rally at the Carrier Dome. Nova figured to get some snaps regardless vs. the Orange, but sources say HC Greg Schiano might be contemplating a starting QB switch to Nova. Stay tuned.

Tennessee... With star soph WR Justin Hunter out for the season with a knee injury suffered Sept. 17 at Florida, soph Da'Rick Rogers stepped up last weekend vs. Buffalo, catching 7 passes for 179 yards and 2 TDs from QB Tyler Bray in the Vols' 41-10 win.

TCU... RB Ed Wesley returned to the lineup last week vs. SMU for the first time since suffering a shoulder injury in the opener at Baylor. Wesley looked fine when rumbling for 96 yards on 12 carries, but the mistake-prone Frogs were ambushed by their Metroplex neighbors in OT, 40-33.

UAB... Starting QB Bryan Ellis, who suffered a concussion the previous week at East Carolina, was held out of last week's game at Troy. Although backup Jonathan Perry fared decently as he had the previous week vs. the Pirates, completing 19 of 38 passes and putting the Blazers in position for an upset win before two late Trojan scores gave Troy a 24-23 win. UAB has handily covered the point-spread in its last two games with Perry at the controls.

Utah... Ute QB Jordan Wynn suffered an injury to his non-throwing (left) shoulder near the end of the first half last Saturday vs. Washington. Backup Jon Hays went the entire second half for the Utes, who lost contact with the Huskies in an eventual 31-14 U-Dub romp. Utah was held scoreless with hays at the controls until a TD pass in the final minute of play. The status of Wynn, who endured serious surgery on his other shoulder (the one that throws) after last season, was unknown as of Sunday for this week's game vs. Arizona State.

Virginia...HC Mike London might be moving toward a permanent change at QB as true frosh David Watford again impressed off the bench in relief of starter Michael Rocco in last Saturday's narrow 21-20 OT escape vs. Idaho at Charlottesville. The Cavs were also minus top RB Kevin Parks (271 YR) for last week's cliffhanger vs. the feisty Vandals.

CFB Overtime Overload
By Robbie Gainous

Week 6 of the college football season is upon us and as we gaze into our crystal ball, we see overtime as a perfect situation for examination. Overtime is a relatively new phenomenon in college football even though it has a limited history it has proven to be a very profitable situation when used to defeat the oddsmakers number.

This week’s system isolates teams who have returned home after going on the road and suffering an overtime loss as an underdog. Research shows that these underdogs have had no will to fight after coming so close but falling just short.

Our system tells us to play AGAINST a Saturday home underdog of four or more points off a road underdog overtime SU loss as long as they are not seeking revenge for a SU loss of more than sixteen points. The system has posted a record of 0-14 SU losing by an average of 24.9 points per game and 0-14 ATS failing to cover by an average of 12.6 points per game since 1996.

Last week the University of Idaho went on the road to Charlottesville Virginia for a meeting against the host Virginia Cavaliers. The Vandals were installed as 16-point road underdogs against the Cavaliers. Virginia jumped out to a 14 to 0 lead in the first quarter. The Vandal defense rose to the occasion and shut the Cavaliers down after that but their offense struggled and were only able to kick a pair of field goals before halftime.

The score remained the same until the 3:11 mark of the 4th Quarter when Idaho scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion. With the game tied at the end of regulation 14 to 14 the Vandals felt confident in their ability coming all the way back and now an opportunity to get the straight up victory in the overtime period.

Virginia opened the overtime period scoring a touchdown and converting the extra point to lead 21 to 14. Idaho got their opportunity and scored a touchdown with the extra point pending. The Vandals elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win. Virginia brought defensive pressure on Idaho QB Reader who launched a pass toward the end zone, TE Mike LaGrone made a leaning, one-handed attempt to pull in the ball, unfortunately, it hit the turf with a massive thud.

The Vandals own website put it best “One word – heartache that is all that can be said about Idaho’s gutsy, gut-wrenching 21 to 20 overtime loss at Virginia.” Our system suggests the Vandals will struggle after suffering such an emotional loss falling flat here and setting up a perfect play against situation for us.

The Bulldogs from Ruston Louisiana travel to Moscow Idaho for a Saturday evening battle against the host Vandals. With all of our system’s parameters met, we will recommend playing against the Vandals on Saturday night as Louisiana Tech takes advantage of the situation and gets the straight up and against the spread victory.

Big 12 News and Notes
By Nick Parsons

Five undefeated Big 12 teams play this week and by the time Saturday is over, that number will be cut down by at least 1.

Here's a quick look at the important games ahead:

Cat Fight

Take a look at the boxscore from the Baylor-Kansas State game. You will see that Robert Griffin part three threw for 346 yards and 5 TDs, while KState's Collin Klein was 13 for 28 for just 146 yards and 2 TDs. However all that mattered in the end was Kansas State 36, Baylor 35. Key moment was a late Griffin interception, his first of the year:

This Saturday marks the 3rd straight game that the undefeated Wildcats find themselves underdogs, this time against Missouri. It is also the first time during that three game stretch that they have the public on their side. The question now remains for handicappers, is it time to sell their stock?

Homefield advantage is a plus and also their defense, led by player of the week Arthur Brown, ranks 16th in the nation allowing under 300 yards per game. However this a Missouri Tigers team that has beat them in 5 straight games by an average score of 41.4 to 23.4.

The Tigers are 2-2 this season, but both of those losses were tight games on the road, against quality opposition.. They lost in OT to Arizona State and were competitive in Norman losing 38-28. Trying to make light of their loss (where they were 20 point underdogs), WR T.J. Moe stated, “If they’re the best team in the country, then we’re pretty good ”.

Well they are actually number 3 according to the SEC biased AP, but the main point is that Missouri are 3 point road favorites for a reason and just be weary that the oddsmakers in Costa Rica (not Vegas its not the 80s) don't give out gifts too often.

Overboard?

Two Big 12 games have a posted total over 70 this week and it involves the obvious candidates. In most years, Texas Tech is a good under wager because of their association with the “Air Raid”, this year though they are living up to their reputation hitting the over in 3 straight games. They are 7th in total yards at 525 per game and 5th in points at 47.2, oh and they are also 4-0. Texas A&M seems like the perfect dancing partner for the over averaging 518.5 yards per game and with the last three head to heads between these two going over the total.

The other high total this week belongs to Oklahoma State and Kansas. The Cowboys are 1st in plays per game at 90.0, and QB Brandon Weeden is making a legitimate push for the Heisman with already 1592 yards, 10 TDs and a 74.3% completion rate. For over backers, the question remains whether or not Kansas can contribute to that 73 point total.

The Jayhawks have hit the over in all of their games this season and much of that is a result of their dreadful defense which is giving up 44.2 points per game. However the fact that they are 31 point underdogs suggests that points could be difficult to come by. Jayhawks coach, Turner Gill was asked whether or not he used the spread as motivation for his team, he responded “That doesn’t do any good, Football’s an emotional game, but it comes down to execution. No, I don’t use that as motivation.”

True its an emotional game, but odds are set by complex, accurate algorithms that tap into emotion and for the most part help build hotels in Vegas and nice resorts in the Caribbean.

Red River Blowout

When future lines were posted in August, Oklahoma was listed as a -8 point favorite. The fact that the Longhorns are undefeated and are in the Top 10 appears to have had no effect at all on oddsmaker's respect towards the Longhorns with the line opening at -9.5 in favor of the Sooners. There isn't much to be said about this contest that the ESPN / Longhorn Network marriage won't over-expose for the next couple of days. So for handicappers toss a coin on this one or just pass.

Games to Watch - Week 6
By Brian Edwards

Oklahoma vs. Texas

As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Oklahoma (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 56 ½. The Sooners trashed Ball St. 62-6 Saturday to improve to 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit favorites. They are led by junior quarterback Landry Jones, who has 1,447 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through four games. He has one of the nation's elite WRs in Ryan Broyles, who has 38 catches for 476 yards and six touchdowns. Texas (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) is trying to bounce back from a nightmare 2010 season and is on its way thanks to rushing for better than 200 yards per game to date. The Longhorns have cruised to easy road wins at UCLA (49-20) and at Iowa St. (37-14) their last two times out. OU won last year's Red Rivalry showdown by a 28-20 count, but Texas has a 4-1-1 spread record in the last six head-to-head meetings with the Sooners. Mack Brown's team has been an underdog five times since 2009, limping to an abysmal 1-4 spread record. Texas senior safety Christian Scott will be in street clothes against OU after injuring his wrist against the Cyclones.

Michigan vs. Northwestern

As of Wednesday, Michigan (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) was favored by seven with a total of 59. Brady Hoke's squad is coming off a dominant performance in its Big Ten opener. The Wolverines trounced Minnesota 58-0 as a 21-point home favorite. Denard Robinson completed 15-of-19 passes for 169 yards and a pair of TDs without being intercepted. Robinson also rushed for 51 yards and one score. Northwestern (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) raced out to an 18-point lead at Illinois thanks to four TD passes from QB Dan Persa, who was making his season debut. However, Persa's Achilles began to act up and he pulled himself from the game. Without their star signal caller, the Wildcats gave up the big lead and lost 38-35. They nevertheless took the cash as 10-point road underdogs. Persa was 'probable' early in the week, but RB Mike Trumpy is 'out' after tearing his ACL against the Illini. As a home underdog during Pat Fitzgerald's tenure, NW is 7-6 ATS. The 'under' has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings between these schools, while the Wildcats have taken the cash in the last three encounters.

Missouri vs. Kansas State

Missouri at Kansas State - Missouri (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) was favored by three and the total was 55 1/2 as of Wednesday. The Tigers have had two weeks to prep for Kansas St. (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) after losing 38-28 at Oklahoma. They have covered the spread in both previous road games, an overtime loss at Arizona St and the setback at OU. James Franklin, Mizzou's sophomore QB, has filled in admirably for Blaine Gabbert in his first year as the starter. Franklin has seven TD passes compared to only one interception. K-St. rallied from a nine-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Baylor 36-35 as a 3 ½-point home underdog Saturday. QB Collin Klein threw for 146 yards and two TDs and also rushed for 113 yards and one score. The Wildcats own a 7-3 spread record in their last 10 games as home 'dogs on Bill Snyder's watch. Gary Pinkel's team has won five in a row over K-St, going 3-2 ATS in the process.

Miami vs. Virginia Tech

Miami at Virginia Tech - Va. Tech (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) is coming off a 23-3 home loss to Clemson as a seven-point 'chalk.' Once again, Frank Beamer's team has been tabbed as a seven-point home favorite. The Hokies are struggling offensively, resulting in four straight 'unders.' Tyrod Taylor's replacement under center, Logan Thomas, has more interceptions (five) than TD passes (four). Miami (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) is mired in a 3-10 ATS slide dating back to last year. Va. Tech has won six of the last eight meetings with UM. Even better, they are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 encounters with the Hurricanes. The 'under' is 7-1 in the last eight VT-UM matchups.

Auburn vs. Arkansas

Auburn at Arkansas - Most books had Arkansas (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a 10-point 'chalk' with a total of 63 on Wednesday morning. Auburn (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) is plus-300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300). Gene Chizik's squad is coming off a 16-13 win at South Carolina as 10-point underdog. The win improved AU to 2-0 in SEC play. Arkansas rallied from a 35-17 halftime deficit to beat Texas A&M, 42-38. The Razorbacks, 2 ½-point 'dogs at most spots, have won three in a row over the Aggies at Cowboys Stadium. Tyler Wilson threw for a career-high 510 yards and three TDs without being picked off. Bobby Petrino's team has injury concerns on the defensive line, as DE Tenarius Wright is 'out' and DT Robert Thomas is 'questionable.' Senior DE Jake Bequette, who has missed three straight games with a hamstring injury, is expected to be back in the starting lineup. On the injury front for AU, WR Trovon Reed is 'out' and WR Emory Blake (19 catches, 4 TDs) is 'doubtful.' Arkansas has won two of the last three against AU both SU and ATS, but the Tigers won a 65-43 shoot-out last season. The 'over' has hit in the last three meetings.

Ohio State vs. Nebraska

Ohio State at Nebraska - This was supposed to be the game when Ohio St. (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) would return several key players like RB Daniel Herron and WR DeVier Posey, but both were suspended again this week for new NCAA issues. The Buckeyes have been anemic offensively in both of their losses, scoring just six at Miami and seven in last week's 10-7 home loss to Michigan St. Nebraska (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) is coming off its first loss, a 48-17 defeat at Wisconsin. The Cornhuskers, favored by 11 on Wednesday morning, are 9-14 ATS as home favorites during Bo Pelini's four-year tenure.

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 6
By Adam Thompson

California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-23.5, 62)

Why Cal will cover: The Bears have put up points (39.5 ppg, 12th) and can stuff the run. They can keep up offensively, as long as the defense makes a few stops.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks have the nation’s most explosive offense, averaging 52 ppg. Cal’s defense hasn’t faced anything like Oregon. The Ducks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 following bye weeks.

Points: The over is 3-1 in both teams’ games, and there’s not enough defense to think this will be a low-scoring affair.

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs (+20.5, 58.5)

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos’ points differential is 20 ppg. Boise State is 2-0 ATS on the road, busting the likes of Georgia and Toledo.

Why Fresno State will cover: The Bulldogs have faced Cal, Nebraska and Ole Miss, so they’re battle-ready. They haven’t lost by more than 15 yet.

Points: The under is 8-1-1 in BSU’s last 10 games, but the over is 4-1 for Fresno this season.

Maryland Terrapins at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-15.5, 63.5)

Why Maryland will cover: The Terrapins should be able to score and everyone has scored at least 21 on the Jackets.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Tech averages 378 yards rushing per game, tops in the nation. Maryland ranks 90th against the run. GT is 4-0-1 ATS, Maryland is 1-3.

Points: The over is 5-0 in Jackets games, and the Terps’ offense should get in the end zone a couple times.

Connecticut Huskies at West Virginia Mountaineers (-19.5, 53.5)

Why Connecticut will cover: The Huskies have been wildly disappointing (1-4 ATS). That said, those losses have come by seven points or fewer. Maybe this is the week they break out of the funk.

Why West Virginia will cover: The Mountaineers can throw the ball with the best of them, while pass defense is UConn’s big weakness. At home, this game could be over by halftime.

Points: The over is 4-1 in WVU games, and 1-4 in UConn games.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+9.5, 58.5)

Why Oklahoma will cover: OU’s offense ranks fifth in yards and 11th in points, The Sooners are 6-2 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records. Texas is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 overall.

Why Texas will cover: Texas is on a roll, blowing out UCLA and Iowa State on the road. OU’s defense has bent (40th in yards allowed) but not been broken (14th in points allowed). Maybe the Horns have the offense to break through.

Points: While both teams are 2-0 on the over in their last two, each has defenses that are tough to score on.

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks (-19, 44)

Why Kentucky will cover: The offense has been horrible, but the defense has kept most opponents in check, especially against the pass (11th, 163.6).

Why South Carolina will cover: USC’s defense ranks No. 3 against the pass (150.8 ypg), so how is UK going to score more than seven points? The Gamecocks, coming off a 16-13 loss to Auburn, have something to prove and the firepower to make it ugly.

Points: The under is 3-0 in USC’s last three and 3-1-1 for UK this season.

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+13, 49.5)

Why Florida State will cover: After losing close games to Oklahoma and at Clemson, the Seminoles should overwhelm Wake in terms of speed and talent. The defense, which ranks in the top 25 in every major category, will make it rough on the Deacons.

Why Wake Forest will cover: Wake is 3-0 ATS in its last three games, while FSU is 0-3 ATS, and the dog is 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Wake is averaging over 100 yards more than its opponents, and while that’s unlikely to happen here, keeping the game close is not out of the question.

Points: This game could be a shootout or a one-sided blowout.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Indiana Hoosiers (+16, 52.5)

Why Illinois will cover: Indiana is 22nd in rushing yards (209.8), while IU is 97th at stopping the run. Indiana’s offense hasn’t shown much. Once Illinois gets ahead, it will keep running until it hits the end zone.

Why Indiana will cover: Illinois finds ways to win, but not ways to cover, with its last three victories each by three points. IU hung with Penn State and all four losses have been by seven points or less.

Points: The over is 2-3 for both teams, and this number is a little high for these teams.

Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers (-22, 54)

Why Boston College will cover: The Eagles have struggled, but have not faced a spread this large. They make games low-scoring, which bodes well for a spread of more than three TDs.

Why Clemson will cover: Few teams have been as impressive as Clemson. If the focus is there, the Tigers should dominate. They’re 4-1 ATS, while the Eagles are 1-4.

Points: Despite the 4-1 over start for Clemson, the under is 8-1 in its last nine ACC games, and is 19-7 in BC’s last 27 overall.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (+3, 48.5)

Why Arizona State will cover: ASU ranks 28th in passing and Utah is 91st against the pass. The Devils dismantled USC by 21 points, while Utah lost to the Trojans by nine.

Why Utah will cover: While Utah is just 1-3 ATS, ASU is only 1-4. The Devils have played just one road game, and they lost (at Illinois).

Points: The over is 4-1 for ASU, but is 1-3 for Utah. Both teams have had defenses that keep scores down.

Miami Hurricanes at Virginia Tech Hokies (-7.5, 44.5)

Why Miami will cover: The Hokies have proven vulnerable, even at home. The best is yet to come from the Canes, who rank 28th in points allowed.

Why Virginia Tech will cover: Both teams like to run the ball, the difference being VT is No. 2 at stopping the run, while Miami is 105th. VT has something to show after last week’s home blowout loss to Clemson.

Points: The under has hit in VT’s last four games and is 2-2 for Miami overall. The under is also 8-1 in the last nine meetings.

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-13.5, 41.5)

Why Florida will cover: That’s a good-sized spread for a team that can score on any play. And the defense ranks in the Top 20 in every major category. UF is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games.

Why LSU will cover: Florida was exposed by an Alabama team that is similar to LSU’s. The Tigers’ defense ranks No. 9 in yards and points allowed and No. 3 in rush yards allowed. The offense isn’t bad either, averaging 38 ppg (19th).

Points: Both defense typically shut down foes, though the over has hit in Florida’s last three.

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-33, 71)

Why Kansas will cover: Kansas averages more than 200 yards passing and rushing per game. OSU’s defense isn’t good at stopping either.

Why Oklahoma State will cover: The Cowboys average 46.8 ppg, and the Jayhawks’ defense is dead last in the nation in points allowed (44.2). But those two stats together, and …

Points: The over is 4-0 in KU games, 2-2 for OSU, and neither defense has shown the ability to stop anything.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas State Wildcats (+3, 55.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Missouri can run the ball and stop the run. It struggled to stop the pass, but the Wildcats can’t throw. Mizzou can. The Tigers are 3-0 ATS in their last three.

Why Kansas State will cover: A Top-25 team at home, an underdog against an unranked opponent? There’s never been better blackboard material. K-State is just as adept at running and slowing the run.

Points: Missouri’s last three games and K-State’s last two have hit the over.

Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks (-10, 63)

Why Auburn will cover: The Tigers can run the ball (36th), while the Razorbacks struggle to stop it (109th). Auburn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 SEC games. Auburn was plus-10.5 last week at South Carolina and won SU.

Why Arkansas will cover: The team throws 350 yards per game and has beaten down better defensive backfields this season. The defense ranks 75th in yards allowed, but only gives up 22.8 ppg (48th). The team is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite and last nine home games.

Points: Neither defense has what it takes to consistently stop the other team’s offense.

Texas A&M Aggies at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+6.5, 70)

Why Texas A&M will cover: The Aggies’ offense ranks among the top 25 nationally in every way. Teams can’t run on Texas A&M, and if the Aggies can take a lead, they can pull away.

Why Texas Tech will cover: Tech can and will throw the ball (9th, 345.5 ypg), while Texas A&M is the worst team in the nation at stopping the pass. Tech is 3-1 ATS.

Points: The over is 3-1 in Tech games. Both offenses should have field days.

Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats (+3.5 59.5)

Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS because their defense has been better than expected, holding four opponents to single digits. The offense ranks No. 7 in rushing, while Northwestern’s defense is 89th at stopping the run.

Why Northwestern will cover: The Wildcats’ offense has looked spectacular at times, but inconsistent.

Points: The over is 8-2 in Northwestern’s last 10 home games and in its last 10 as a dog.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Alabama Crimson Tide (-29, 41.5)

Why Vanderbilt will cover: The Commodores don’t score much but their defense is very solid, ranking in the top 25 against the run and pass.

Why Alabama will cover: Despite typically being big favorites, Bama is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 at home. Vandy is 1-7 in its last eight SEC games. The defense ranks No. 1 against the run (39.6 ypg) and in points allowed (8.4), is No. 5 against the pass (152). How is Vandy going to move the ball … at all?

Points: The Tide may have to do all the scoring to hit the over, though they’ve scored 38 or more in four of their five games.

Colorado Buffaloes at Stanford Cardinal (-27, 57.5)

Why Colorado will cover: If Stanford has a weakness, it’s passing defense (86th), which matches up with Colorado’s strength of throwing the ball (36th).

Why Stanford will cover: It’s all clicking right now for Stanford, 4-0 ATS, with an offense that ranks No. 7 in points (45.8) and a defense that’s No. 6 in scoring (11.5). The team averages 34.3-point margin of victory, and Stanford has blown out better opponents on the road.

Points: Nobody’s slowed Stanford yet, and if Colorado can score some second-half scores against a lax Cardinal secondary, anything is possible.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11, 43.5)

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes’ offense is atrocious, but the defense can hold down teams. That’s a decent spread for a team that allows just 14.6 ppg (11th).

Why Nebraska will cover: Despite the embarrassing performance at Wisconsin, Nebraska can score, ranking No. 22 points and No. 9 in rushing.

Points: The under is 8-1 in OSU’s last nine and 14-6 in Nebraska’s last 20 at home.

Returning Starter Angle Plays Week 6
By Rocky Atkinson

Many years ago I received a newsletter from Mike Lee, a sports handicapper who just recently passed away in the past few years. I’m not sure if he came up with this Returning starter angle or if he was just passing it along but it has really been a nice addition to my own personal handicapping arsenal. He had said in his newsletter that the previous year the angle had hit above 70%. I was skeptical but I started following the angle and the next two years it achieved the 70%+ mark again. In recent years the angle has not been as strong but still profitable.

The Returning Starter angle is as follows: Play On: Any team returning five or more net starters against their opponent. I use Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Yearbook for returning starter information. Go down the list and compare each team’s returning starters. An example from the 1st week would be Mississippi State vs Memphis. Mississippi State has 15 starters returning for Head Coach Dan Mullen while Memphis returns only 9 starters for Head Coach Larry Porter. That’s a difference a 6 returning starters in favor of Mississippi State. Mississippi State won the game easily by a score of 59-14 in the Thursday night opener.

Let’s take a look at this week’s returning starter angle and see if it can produce us another winning week. Keep in mind several other factors should go into your handicapping methods, so be sure to use this as an addition to your overall handicapping formula. We’ll put returning starters in parenthesis.

Week 1 Results only 2-6 ATS and Week 2 were 6-5 ATS and Week 3 3-5 ATS and Week 4 5-3 ATS and Week 5 4-4 ATS. We’ll keep a running total for the season. Not too good so far.

Western Kentucky (17) vs Middle Tennessee State (10) Play On: Western Kentucky

Boise State (16) vs Fresno State (9) Play On: Boise State

Iowa (10) vs Penn State (15) Play On: Penn State

Memphis (9) vs Rice (18) Play On: Rice

Army (11) vs Miami Ohio (17) Play On: Miami Ohio

Auburn (6) vs Arkansas (13) Play On: Arkansas

Colorado (16) vs Stanford (11) Play On: Colorado

Arkansas State(14) vs Louisiana Monroe (19) Play On: Louisiana Monroe

Oklahoma vs. Texas: What Bettors Need to Know

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+10.5, 56.5)

THE STORY: As usual, the stakes are high in the Red River Rivalry. Top-ranked Oklahoma will look to stay unbeaten against surging Texas, which opened the season ranked 24th but has climbed all the way to No. 10 after four straight victories. Ten of the last 13 meetings between these Big 12 rivals have been decided by 10 or more points, but the last two meetings have been single-digit affairs. Texas has won three of the last five against the Sooners, who defeated the Longhorns 28-20 in 2010. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is 7-5 all-time against Texas coach Mack Brown. Texas holds the all-time advantage in the series, 58-41-5.

TV: ABC

LINE MOVES: Oklahoma opened as a 8.5-point favorite and has been bet up to 10.5 as of Friday afternoon. The total opened at 56 and was bet up to 57 before coming down to 56.5 points.

ABOUT NO. 1 OKLAHOMA (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, 3-1 ATS): The Sooners have won all four of their games by 10 or more points, including a road win over then-No. 5 Florida State on Sept. 17. Quarterback Landry Jones, a Heisman Trophy candidate, has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, throwing 10 touchdowns against five interceptions. However, the Oklahoma offense continues to put up huge numbers, averaging 42 points and 555 yards, fourth-best in the country. Oklahoma has struggled against Texas on the ground in the last three years, averaging just 52 rushing yards. In 2009, a 16-13 loss, the Sooners were held to minus 16 yards on 22 carries.

ABOUT NO. 10 TEXAS (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, 3-1 ATS): The Longhorns could match their win total from all of last season with a victory over the Sooners. Texas went 5-7 last year and finished last in the former Big 12 South division. Texas has relied on an improved offense and a revamped defense, which has demonstrated success under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz. However, while the Longhorns rank No. 14 in total defense, it’s worth noting that the best offense they’ve faced is UCLA’s 63rd-ranked unit. Texas has gone up against offenses ranked 75th, 103rd and 109th, so this week qualifies as its biggest challenge yet. The Longhorns failed to force even a single turnover in last year’s meeting against the Sooners.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Oklahoma hasn’t beaten Texas in consecutive seasons since 2003 and 2004.

2. The Sooners are looking to start 5-0 for the third time in the last four years.

3. With its 37-14 win over Iowa State, Texas improved to 12-2 in Big 12 openers under Brown.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Sooners are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
* Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma 38, Texas 21 – The Sooners are too good on both sides of the ball for Texas to keep pace, and Jones is poised for a huge game on a big stage.

Game of the day: Ohio State at Nebraska

Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-11, 44.5)

THE STORY: Nebraska’s weaknesses were on full display for the nation to see last week. Unfortunately, Ohio State’s flaws have been front and center on the college football scene for some time. In Saturday’s 48-17 nationally televised blowout loss at No. 5 Wisconsin, the Huskers allowed a season-worst 486 yards and the most points it had surrendered in a game since a 62-28 loss to Oklahoma in 2008. Three interceptions from quarterback Taylor Martinez led to 21 points for the Badgers. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have been working under the NCAA's microscope since the end of the 2010 season. The latest hit was this week’s announcement that three players - including wide receiver DeVier Posey and running back Dan Herron - will not play Saturday as punishment for receiving improper benefits. Both players were also involved in the memorabilia scandal that eventually led to the dismissal of former coach Jim Tressel. Nebraska and Ohio State have met twice, with the Buckeyes winning both meetings in Columbus in 1955 and 1956.

TV: ABC

LINE MOVES: Nebraska opened as a 9.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -11. The total opened at 44 and dropped to 43.5 before going up to 44.5.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (4-1, 0-1 Big Ten, 1-4 ATS): Martinez has only four touchdown passes against five interceptions in 2011. The Huskers feature the ninth-best rushing attack in the country, led by Rex Burkhead (511 yards) and Martinez (425) - individual totals that rank as the second- and fourth-best marks in the conference, respectively.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (3-2, 0-1, 2-3 ATS): The Buckeyes, who rank 108th in total offense this season, had only 178 total yards in a 10-7 loss to No. 20 Michigan State last week, only avoiding a shutout by scoring with 10 seconds remaining. Conversely, Ohio State has fared well on the other side of the ball, ranking 11th nationally in scoring defense and 13th in total defense.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Huskers coach Bo Pelini, who played for Ohio State from 1987-1990, is 2-0 against his alma mater during his coaching career, but will be facing the Buckeyes for the first time as a head coach.

2. Nebraska has started conference play with two losses only once since 1968.

3. The Buckeyes have won 16 of their last 19 conference games dating back to 2008.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.
* Cornhuskers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as favorites of 10.5 or greater.
* Under is 9-1-2 in Buckeyes' last 12 road games.
* Under is 14-6 in Cornhuskers' last 20 home games.

PREDICTION: Nebraska 24, Ohio State 13 - The Huskers will struggle to run the ball again, but the Buckeyes don’t have the same kind of offensive weapons that Wisconsin does to take advantage of the Huskers’ mistakes. Expect Nebraska to win a low-scoring slugfest.

SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards

Editor's note: Brian Edwards has been crushing the books with winners galore in college football. To be exact, Brian owns a 28-10 record (74%!) and has a pick pack for Saturday plus this pay-if-it-wins-only selection.

When you’re a true freshman quarterback, you aren’t supposed to get thrown to the wolves like this. In my opinion, Alabama has the nation’s premier defense and LSU has the second-best stop unit.

In the first six quarters of meaningful playing time in Jeff Driskel’s career, this is what he must face. When Florida senior quarterback John Brantley suffered a severe ankle sprain late in the second quarter vs. Alabama last week, Driskel was suddenly thrust under center for the Gators in the third and fourth quarters.

The results weren’t pretty, as Alabama shut down UF in the second half en route to a 38-10 win as a four-point road favorite.

Things looked good for Will Muschamp’s team in the early going. On the second play from scrimmage, sophomore wide receiver Andre DeBose got separation from ‘Bama lockdown cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and Brantley hit him perfectly in stride for a 65-yard scoring strike.

After Alabama answered with a field goal, UF promptly marched into the red zone and nearly got into the end zone on three straight plays. On first and goal, Brantley hit Chris Rainey all alone along the sideline, but Rainey was unable to keep his balance and his momentum took him out of bounds at the five.

Brantley threw a TD pass on the next play, but the score was correctly reversed after a replay review. Then a third-and-goal pass should’ve been caught, but the Gators had to settle for a field goal and a 10-3 lead.

With the score tied at 10-10 early in the second quarter, Brantley made his only mistake of the night and pair for it dearly. Courtney Upshaw intercepted Brantley’s short pass and returned it 45 yards for a touchdown.

The Crimson Tide would tack on another score for a 24-10 advantage with 3:13 remaining in the second quarter. UF then moved into ‘Bama territory but on a third-down play, Brantley was sacked and suffered the high ankle sprain that’ll likely keep him on the sidelines for 3-4 weeks.

Caleb Sturgis’s 53-yard field-goal attempt on the final play of the half was long enough but wide. And, as previously mentioned, it was all Alabama in final 30 minutes.

Now Driskel will make his first career start on the road at one of the country’s most difficult venues. But the Gators have had plenty of success at Tiger Stadium, especially for our purposes.

In fact, Florida (4-1 straight up, 3-1-1 against the spread) has taken the cash in six straight games at LSU, winning outright four times. The Gators are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as road underdogs.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) favored by 13½ with a total of 42. Gamblers can take UF on the money line for a lucrative plus-450 return (risk $100 to win $450).

Since 2001, Florida has been a double-digit underdog just twice. The Gators have covered the spread in both instances. The last double-digit ‘dog spot came at LSU in 2003 when Keiwan Ratliff’s interceptions led UF to a 19-7 win over the eventual national champions.

LSU has been No. 2 in my power rankings from the get-go and it has been the country’s most impressive team to date thanks to the quality of its five wins over Oregon (40-27), Northwestern St. (49-3), Mississippi St. (19-6), West Va. (47-21) and Kentucky (35-7).

Les Miles’ team has an outstanding power running game, dangerous weapons at the WR position and a play-making defense that creates turnovers galore. Jarrett Lee has been solid at QB since taking over for Jordan Jefferson, who was suspended for the first four games of the year.

Lee has a 7/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has played like a veteran in three big wins on the road (Oregon was actually a neutral at Cowboys Stadium, but you get the point.). This is why I believe Miles needs to be extremely careful about the way he incorporates Jefferson into the offense.

In other words, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. LSU is in cruise control and the last thing it needs is controversy in the locker room. Jefferson screwed up to lose his job and Lee has taken advantage. Nevertheless, Miles seem intent on getting Jefferson snaps in short-yardage situations to utilize his speed, but this could be a slippery slope that could lead to team turmoil.

LSU has not fared well as a home favorite during Miles’ seven-year tenure, posting an abysmal 13-25-1 spread record. In the Tigers’ last 15 games as double-digit home ‘chalk,’ they are an atrocious 3-11-1 ATS.

CBS will have television coverage of UF-LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

In a huge SEC East showdown at Neyland Stadium, Tennessee (3-1 SU, 2-0-2 ATS) will take on Georgia in Knoxville. With South Carolina and Florida losing last week, the UGA-UT winner will have an excellent chance of winning the division.

Most books are listing Georgia (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a two-point favorite with the total in the 55-56 range. The Dawgs have won three in a row both SU and ATS since losing their first two games. They thumped Mississippi St. by a 24-10 count as seven-point home favorites last week.

Isaiah Crowell rushed for 104 yards and Aaron Murray threw a pair of touchdown passes. However, Murray was intercepted three times. He has a 13/6 TD-INT ratio for the year.

Mark Richt’s team is 2-1 in SEC play, losing to South Carolina and winning at Ole Miss prior to the victory over MSU. Crowell has rushed for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.

Tennessee is coming off a 41-10 win over Buffalo as a 28½-point home favorite. Tyler Bray threw for 342 and four TDs without being intercepted. For the season, Bray now has 14 TD passes compared to only two picks.

Georgia has been a road favorite 28 times under Richt, compiling a 16-11-1 spread record. Meanwhile, the Vols are 4-7 ATS as home underdogs since 2001. They are 0-3 versus the number in three such spots on Dooley’s watch.

UGA spanked UT by a 41-14 count as an 11-point home ‘chalk’ last season. But in its last two trips to Knoxville, Georgia has taken woodshed treatment. The Vols won by a 45-19 count in 2009 and a 35-14 score in ’07.

Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

The ‘over’ is on a 9-2 run in UT’s last 11 home games.

South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier will give Connor Shaw his second career start Saturday vs. Kentucky. Shaw started the season opener but was relieved by Stephen Garcia when the Gamecocks quickly fell behind 17-0 to East Carolina. Garcia has been intercepted six times in the last two games against Vandy and Auburn. South Carolina is favored by 21 vs. UK.

Miami DT Marcus Fortson is done for the season.

Ohio State is a double-digit underdog Saturday at Nebraska. The Buckeyes have only been double-digit ‘dogs once since 2003. That occasion came in 2008 when Southern Cal stroked OSU 35-3 as a 12-point home favorite.

Coaching Hot Seats:

1-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
2-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
3-Neil Callaway (UAB)
4-Mike Riley (Oregon State)
5-Mark Richt (Georgia)

Big 10 Report - Week 6
By ASA

Nebraska (-10) vs. Ohio State

NEB: 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS - Last week: at Wisconsin, L 17-48
OSU: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Michigan State, L 7-10

Both teams are off of a loss. Nebraska was embarrassed in its first conference game as a member of the Big Ten while Ohio State continued to struggle in a 7-10 loss at home to Michigan State. This game looked like a match-up of juggernauts when it was announced in the offseason, now it's a match-up of two teams trying to save face in the Big Ten.

Ohio State was lucky to avoid a shutout last week against MSU as it scored a meaningless touchdown with :10 seconds remaining. It had just 35 rushing yards on 39 carries, totaled 178 yards, and allowed nine sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Problems stem from inconsistency at QB, where Bauserman and Miller have combined to complete just 40.3% for 96 YPG with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions over the past three games. More bad news for the offense: Herron, Posey, and Hall (supposed to return after suspensions) are all suspended for at least one more week.

After averaging 43 points per game in non-conference play, Nebraska could only manage 17 against Wisconsin last week. QB Martinez threw three costly interceptions and the defense, supposed to be the strength of this team, is still a work in progress. The Blackshirts are now allowing 377 yards per game (64th nationally) and 27 points per game (73rd). Coach Bo Pelini said he was embarrassed by his team's defensive performance in Madison and you can bet the Blackshirts will have a better performance here against OSU's struggling offense.

Determining an advantage for either side is difficult as it is Homecoming for the Huskers and Memorial Stadium should be electric for the first home game as a member of the Big Ten. But the Buckeyes can't afford another loss if they even want a shot at competing in the Big Ten as they have a road trip to 5-0 Illinois and a home meeting with 5-0 Wisconsin in their next two games.

Something to consider: OSU 18-2 straight up in Big Ten road games over the past five years and 20-7-1 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss. Nebraska is 1-10-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a double-digit favorite.

Penn State (-3) vs. Iowa

PSU: 4-1 SU, 0-5 ATS - Last week: at Indiana, W 16-10
IOWA: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: BYE

Penn State barely escaped with a win over hapless Indiana last week as its offensive woes continue. Just like Ohio State, PSU's struggles start at the quarterback position. McGloin and Bolden have completed just 52% with 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions this season. Overall this offense is 81st in total yards and 94th in points per game. Despite the offensive struggles, PSU's defense is keeping things afloat. This unit ranks 6th in pass defense, 24th in rush defense, and 7th in points allowed.

Iowa has defeated Penn State nine of the past 11 meetings and three straight overall, including a win @PSU in 2009 when the Lions were ranked no. 5. Last year, Iowa held Penn State to just 301 yards and 3 points in the 21-point victory.

This Hawkeyes offense is surging behind QB Vandenberg and a bevy of talented receivers. In his first season as starting QB, Vandenberg has completed 63% for 274 yards per game with 10 touchdowns and just one interception. He leads an offense that is averaging 38 points per game.

Iowa is off a bye week, and while we can't predict how the rest of the season will play out, a win here could give Iowa a head-start in the wide-open Legends division as four of its next five games are at home and they don't face Wisconsin or Illinois.

Something to consider: Iowa has been historically good as an underdog, covering 36 of its previous 54 games as a 'dog (67%). PSU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games overall and 1-5 ATS in its last six home match-ups with Iowa.

Northwestern (+7) vs. Michigan

NW: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at Illinois, L 35-38
MICH: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Minnesota, W 58-0

This is the highest the Wolverines have been ranked since starting the 2007 at no. 5 (lost to Appalachian State and haven't been in the Top 10 since. This will be their first game outside of Ann Arbor, however, and they can't overlook a pesky Northwestern squad - especially with a road game at in-state rival Michigan looming. Northwestern has to fix its defense that's allowing 174 rush YPG and 420 total YPG or Denard Robinson and company will have a field day. These two haven't met since 2008.

It's hard to find a flaw with this Michigan squad. Offensively QB Robinson has this unit rolling, while the defense is allowing just 10.2 points per game (2nd nationally). However, some might attribute this to playing weak opponents at home, as the Wolves allowed 31 points to its best opponent thus far (Notre Dame). They are off of a 58-0 drubbing of horrendous Minnesota, and this team is building confidence under first year coach Brady Hoke.

Northwestern surged to a 28-10 third-quarter lead at Illinois last week behind outstanding play from quarterback Dan Persa (first start back from injury and he threw a career-high 4 touchdown passes). Then Persa got injured and everything fell apart. Illinois rallied for a 38-35 win and now Northwestern is in dire need of a victory. Persa is practicing and expected to start this weekend.

Something to consider: Michigan is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games as a favorite and 4-23 ATS its last 27 conference games. Northwestern is 13-5 ATS its last 18 games as an underdog but just 1-5 ATS its last 6 home games.

Indiana (+16) vs. Illinois

IND: 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 10-16
ILL: 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Northwestern, W 38-35

The defense led Illinois to back-to-back close wins over Western Michigan and Arizona State, but the offense stepped up in a big way in the 38-35 comeback win over Northwestern last week. QB Scheelhaase had 391 yards passing - 268 of them to WR Jenkins - and four total touchdowns as the Illini erased an 18-point deficit in the final 18 minutes. Still, Illinois is playing with fire with three straight three-point victories. Now they're a double-digit road favorite in their first game outside of Champaign.

After hitting rock bottom in a loss at North Texas two weeks ago, Indiana bounced back with a decent performance against Penn State, particularly on defense. The Hoosiers forced three turnovers (two inside the red-zone) and limited the Lions to just 16 points. With QB Wright-Baker out with an ankle injury, sophomore Kiel got the first start of his career. He threw for 184 yards (49%) with a touchdown and an interception.

Indiana has dropped three of the last four against Illinois, including last year's 13-43 loss in Champaign. Indiana had +100 yards and +7 first downs, but turned the ball over five times and repeatedly gave the Illini a short field for easy scores.

Something to consider: Illinois hasn't been a double-digit road favorite since 2007. Indiana has covered five of the last six overall as an underdog but is just 9-18 ATS its last 27 games as a double-digit 'dog.

Purdue (-10) vs. Minnesota

PU: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Notre Dame, L 10-38
MINN: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 0-58

These two teams lost by a combined 86 points last week. Minnesota lost on the road while Purdue's loss came at home. Purdue's porous defense was exposed last week as the Irish racked up 287 rush yards and 551 total yards against this unit. On the other side, Minnesota was outgained by 403 yards and had 24 fewer first downs and was shutout. Neither of these teams has a lot going for them right now, but the good news is that one will get its first Big Ten win of the season on Saturday. Offensively the Boilermakers solid numbers may be deceiving (averaging over 200 yards passing and rushing and scoring nearly 30 points per game) as those numbers were accumulated against mediocre talent. QB's Marve and TerBush combined to complete 19-of-37 for 192 yards with a touchdown and a pick last week against Notre Dame. TerBush remains number one on the depth chart, but both will see playing time again this weekend.

Minnesota ranks at or near the bottom in every major offensive and defensive category. True freshman QB Shortell made the first start of his career last week as MarQueis Gray was out with a toe injury. Gray is expected to be back and the Gophers will welcome his athleticism (351 rush yards and 521 pass yards). Something to consider: Purdue has won 10 of the last 13 meetings with Minnesota, including last year's 11-point victory. However, the Boilers are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a double-digit favorite.

Wisconsin - BYE

WISC: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, W 48-17

Wisconsin opened up conference play with a 48-17 beat-down of Nebraska. There aren't many teams in the nation playing better football than Wisconsin right now. The Badgers rank 8th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 10th in total defense, and 4th in scoring defense. No matter the opponent, Wisconsin will be a healthy favorite for the remainder of the season (11-1 ATS the past 12 games).

Michigan State - BYE

MSU: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS - Last week: at Ohio State, W 10-7

Michigan State won its first game @OSU since 1998. The offense was supposed to be the strong point of this team, but QB Cousins (6 TD & 4 INT) and the rest of this unit has failed to match last years production. The defensive unit is what's holding this team together. This 'D' smothered Ohio State to the tune of 178 yards and 7 points. For the season this unit ranks 1st in the nation in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. The next two weeks will define the season with home dates against Michigan and Wisconsin.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts

The Las Vegas sports books had some activity from sharp money Thursday afternoon for this week’s college football action that pushed several games.

Mississippi State initially opened at the Wynn Resort as a 17-point favorite on Sunday night while the Las Vegas Hilton opened up 16½ on Monday morning. Despite UAB being at home -- what little advantage it is for them -- it’s been all Miss State money and today the number was pushed up 18½ at the Hilton.

Purdue and Minnesota are coming off lopsided losses last week as they meet up in West Lafayette. For Minnesota, they will be without starting quarterback MarQueis Gray. The game was tentatively opened at Purdue -10 for low limits because of Gray’s ‘questionable’ status, but between the combination of wagers and air moves based on information, the line is now pretty universal at -13½.

North Carolina opened as a 12-point favorite at the Wynn Sunday night and then got bet down to -11 for its home game against Louisville. Once another line was available for reference from the offshore outfits, money started pouring in on Carolina. When the Wynn closed Sunday night, the line was Carolina -13½. On Monday, their first bets were on Carolina pushing the game to -15. Then on Thursday, they got a little buy-back on Louisville at +15 and 14½ and currently sit at 14.

The Hilton opened Central Florida as a 16-point favorite for its home against Marshall. Thursday afternoon they took some wagers on UCF pushing the game to -19.

Arizona also saw some action for its road game at Oregon State. Arizona opened as a 1-point favorite, was bet against down to PICK, and then bet on Thursday pushing it up to -2.

Quarterback E.J. Manuel is expected to start for Florida State at Wake Forest this week, which should be a good thing, but the line hasn’t reflected it. The Hilton opened FSU -12½, was bet up to -13, and then bet against between Wednesday and Thursday to its current number of -10.

The Wynn opened Texas A&M as a 6½-point favorite for its road game at Texas Tech and no one touched the game. On Monday, they found themselves being bet to -7½, Wednesday to -8 and Thursday to -8½. The Hilton currently has the Aggies as 9½-point favorites.

Akron got some play for their Saturday home game, getting +20½-points on the opening Hilton line from Florida International. The South Point and others currently have the game 17.

The most interesting side-to-total game this week is Alabama laying -29 at home against Vanderbilt where the total is 41 ½. Anytime a spread is 50% of what the total is, the bettor has a great correlated parlay advantage whether taking the favorite to OVER, or underdog to the UNDER.

One of the big games of the week is Ohio State visiting Nebraska. The Huskers opened up as 10 ½-point favorites at the Hilton and are now -11. It’s been all one-way action with small money. The public has been winning these nationally televised games with regularity so far this season and Station Casinos looked to stay ahead of the line moves by being a half-point higher than the rest of the world at -11½. By them still being there -- with no large money taking the points -- it’s a sign to the rest of the sports books that there might not be any Buckeyes money until 13 comes around. Even then, it may be a hard sell because of how bad THE Ohio State University’s offense looks.

Station’s also had a high number on LSU -14, but found some Florida money Thursday and are now back down to -13½. LSU opened as a 12-point home favorites for this one.

The Hilton opened Oklahoma as a 10-point favorite for their Red River rivalry match against Texas. Sooners money came in initially, but the spread has been steady at -10½ with Leroy’s being the highest at -11. Station Casinos and Lucky’s have low number in town at -10.

The Wynn opened the game -10½ Sunday and got nothing but Texas money dropping as low as -8. But their roller coaster ride brought them right back in line to the number they started with. For their sake, I hope the Sooners don’t win by 10.