College Football Betting News and Notes Week 6

Betting Recap - Week 5
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

College Football Week 5 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-16
Against the Spread 27-33-2
Home-Away
Straight Up 40-22
Against the Spread 30-30-2
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 34-28

The largest underdogs to win straight up

South Alabama (+19.5, +750 ML) vs. San Diego State, 42-24
Northwestern (+11, ML +350 ML) at Iowa, 38-31
North Carolina (+10.5, +330 ML) at Florida State, 37-35

The largest favorites to cover

Ohio State (-39) vs. Rutgers, 58-0
Auburn (-32.5) vs. Louisiana-Monroe, 58-7
Houston (-27.5) vs. Connecticut, 42-14
Texas Tech (-27.5) vs. Kansas, 55-19

Top 25 Notes

Clemson fired out to a big lead, let it slip away, and then rebounded for a win over Louisville in the marquee battle of the weekend at Death Valley, keeping their ACC and playoff hopes on track. QBs DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson lived up to the immense hype, going toe-to-toe in a slugfest. After an 0-2 ATS start to the season the Tigers have covered three in a row. The 'over' result was the first of the year for the Tigers, while the 'over' is now 5-0 for the Cardinals. ... Michigan pushed aside Wisconsin in the Big House by a 14-7 score in a defensive slog. It was the first 'under' for Michigan after four 'over' results, and the first time all season they failed to score at least 45 points. The Wolverines are allowing just 12.4 points per game (PPG). The 'under' is now 4-1 in five games for the Badgers. ... Georgia rebounded nicely with a solid effort at home against Tennessee after getting waxed in Oxford last weekend. The Bulldogs went up 31-28 on a 47-yard touchdown pass with :10 to seal the victory. Or so they thought. After an excessive celebration penalty, the Volunteers returned the ball just shy of midfield. With :00 remaining on the clock, Joshua Dobbs hit Jauan Jennings on a 43-yard Hail Mary to silence the crowd and win between the hedges. It will be hard for UGA to make it back from this one.

Washington-Stanford was supposed to be the marquee battle Friday to get everyone ready for the weekend. Unfortunately only one team showed up. The Huskies might not be all the way back to the pinnacle of college football, but they're certainly carrying the banner for the Pac-12 Conference and have a legitimate chance at a spot in the four-team playoff if they keep playing this well for head coach Chris Petersen.

Florida State is struggling like we haven't seen in many years. They were blown out at Louisville in mid-September, and they kicked off October with a stunning loss against North Carolina with no time left on the clock. Senior K Nick Weiler booted the game-winning field goal from 54 yards out to give head coach Larry Fedora his first signature win since coming to Chapel Hill. The loss snapped a 22-game winning streak at home for the Seminoles..

Miami-Florida picked up a 35-21 road victory at Georgia Tech, as the Hurricanes quietly improved to 4-0 SU/ATS, including 2-0 ATS on the road. As it stands, the 'Noles will be coming to town next weekend and they'll be awfully angry. The 'over' is 3-1 for Miami this season. The Yellow Jackets slipped to 1-3-1 ATS, including 1-3 ATS in four games at home. They'll head to Pitt next weekend.

Big Five Conference Report

Virginia splashed cold water on Duke, winning their ACC opener on the road at Wallace Wade Stadium by a 34-20 score. The Cavaliers improved to 3-0-1 ATS in the past four games, while the 'under' is now 3-1 over the past four outings. Duke slipped to 1-3 SU/ATS against FBS teams, including 0-2 SU/ATS at home, both league games. ... Boston College has been a difficult team to figure. They improved to 2-0 in Chestnut Hill following a 35-3 thrashing of Buffalo. The Eagles have allowed 10 or fewer points in three of their past four outings, but their defense will be put to the test Friday when they welcome Clemson to town. ... North Carolina State dealt Wake Forest its first setback of the season, winning and covering 33-16. The Wolfapack improved to 3-0 SU/ATS at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh. They'll host Notre Dame next Saturday. ... The Irish got back on track with a 50-33 win over Syracuse in a neutral-site game. The 'over' is now 4-1 in five games for the Irish as they head to Raleigh next Saturday.

Ohio State kept it rolling, spanking Rutgers by a 58-0 count. Ohio State has allowed just 4.3 PPG in three home games, and they improved to a perfect 4-0 ATS. They'll host Indiana next weekend, which suddenly looks a little more formidable. ... The Hoosiers topped Michigan State 24-21 in overtime at 'The Rock' in Bloomington, picking up their first victory against Sparty in 10 years. The Hoosiers are now halfway to bowl eligibility, and they have scored 24 or more points in each of their four outings this season. ... In another game decided in overtime, it was Minnesota falling in Happy Valley against Penn State by a 29-26 score. Penn State has alternated wins and losses in their five games, but a couple of things are constants. They're 3-0 SU/0-2-1 ATS at home this season, and the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in their games.

The game of the day in the Big 12 was between Oklahoma and Texas Christian in Fort Worth. The Sooners looked like they had it in the bag, up 49-24 heading to the fourth quarter. But the Horned Frogs opened the final stanza with 22 unanswered points to close the Sooners' lead to three. A late field goal gave the Sooners some breathing room, and it was like losing twice for TCU side bettors. ... West Virginia staved off Kansas State in Morgantown, as Matthew McCrane misfired on a 42-yard field goal attempt in the closing moments. The Mountaineers improved to 4-0 SU, but slipped to 1-3 ATS while failing to cover in their past three.

Colorado kept their foot on the gas, throttling a helpless Oregon State side by a 47-6 count. The Buffaloes improved to 3-0 SU/ATS at home, and they're a perfect 5-0 ATS on the season. They'll travel to Southern California next weekend. ... USC hammered on visiting Arizona State by 41-20 score. It was just the second straight-up win for the Trojans, who have struggled away from home, but been very good at the L.A. Coliseum. USC is 0-3 SU/ATS in road or neutral-site games, and 2-0 SU/ATS at home. They host Colorado next weekend.

Louisiana State kicked off interim head coach Ed Orgeron's tenure with an impressive 42-7 win over Missouri. The homestanding Tigers were on point against the visiting Tigers, as Mizzou failed to cover for the first time in four games. ... Vanderbilt was strong on defense against visiting Florida, but they fell 13-6. It was the third time in five games they scored 10 or fewer points. Vandy is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS in two games in Nashville this season. They head to Kentucky next weekend. The Commodores topped the Wildcats 21-17 last November. ... After opening the season 0-3 ATS, the Wildcats have covered each of their past two.

Mid-Major Report

South Florida continues their impressive offensive performance this season, scoring at least 35 points for the fifth time in five games. They ran roughshod over Cincinnati in a 45-20 win at Nippert Stadium, improving to 4-1 SU/ATS. The 'over' is also 4-1 in the five games for the Bulls. ... Tulane has been surprisingly effective, winning for the third time in four games while moving to 3-1-1 ATS. They'll travel to UCF next Friday in what is suddenly an attractive game in the American Athletic Conference.

In Conference USA it was Old Dominion pounding lowly Charlotte by a 52-17 count. The 49ers have been awful, slipping to 0-4 SU/ATS in four games against FBS foes. The 'over' is 4-1 in their five games, mostly due to the fact they're allowing an average of 51.8 PPG in four outings against FBS teams. ... Rice has started to piece together the offense lately, averaging 31.5 PPG over the past two outings, but they came up just short at Southern Mississippi. The Owls are 0-5 SU, but they have looked a lot better recently.

Ohio won at winless Miami-Ohio, but it was anything but easy. The scratched out a 17-7 win, and needed a strip sack and touchdown with about a minute to go to secure the victory. The RedHawks are winless in five tries, but they a respectable 3-2. The 'under' is a perfect 4-0 in the past four games for both Ohio and Miami. ... Very quietly Eastern Michigan has improved to 4-1 SU/ATS in five outings, including straight-up wins in the past two weekends as an underdog.

Wyoming surprised Colorado State in Fort Collins by a 38-17 count. The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses in five games this season. Their cover pumped the brakes on an 0-3 ATS skid heading into play. ... New Mexico held off San Jose State in a 48-41 shootout. The Lobos failed to cover for the third straight game, but the 'over' improved to 4-0 in four games this season. ... It's five games and five 'over' results for UNLV, as they roughed up Fresno State 45-20. Fresno used to be a tough out, but they slipped to 1-4 SU, and 0-4 vs. FBS teams while going 1-3 ATS. The 'over' has hit in three in a row for the Bulldogs.

Troy won 34-13 in the Kibbie Dome at Idaho, covering for the fourth consecutive game. On the flip side, the Vandals slipped to 1-4 ATS heading into their road trip to Monroe next weekend. Idaho topped ULM 27-13 last October. ... New Mexico State isn't as big of a pushover as past seasons. They dumped Louisiana-Lafayette by a 37-31 score in overtime. The Aggies have covered three of the past four, while the 'over' is 3-1-1 in five games this season. They travel to Idaho in two weeks.

Bad Beats

The Marshall-Pitt total opened as high as 68 1/2, but closed at 58. In the end, it didn't matter when you placed your wage, the 'over' won across the board. The Thundering Herd scored a touchdown with 4:01 to go to cut the Panthers lead to three. With 1:04 to go, Pitt scored a 54-yard touchdown to take a 37-27 lead, and that appeared to be all she wrote. Some early bettors still hit the 'under', while some hit the 'over'. However, with :00 left on the clock, Pitt had a pick-six to roll to a 43-27 and deal 'under' bettors the harshest of blows.

If you were a Georgia moneyline bettor, with :10 remaining you were ecstatic thinking you were about to cash a nice little sum. But on the final play a Hail Mary gave the Vols a miraculous win, and sent UGA moneyline bettors scrambling for the Pepto Bismol.

'Under' (67.5) bettors were feeling good until 2:58 left in regulation when ULL booted a field to tie New Mexico State 24-24, eventually heading to overtime. Under bettors were still looking good, but 20 points later it was New Mexico State scoring the game-winning touchdown in 2OT to inch the total over by just a half-point.

Minnesota bettors were feeling good for most of the game. They relinquished the lead late, but recovered with a 37-yard field goal with :54 left in regulation, appearing to have the game won. The Nittany Lions moved it down and kicked a game-tying 40-yard field goal to force OT, making 'under' (54.5) very nervous. After the Gophers posted a field goal the Lions answered back with a Saquon Barkley TD run to win it for Penn State and push the total just 'over'.

In Friday's game, Washington led 37-6 late in the fourth quarter. Rather than calling off the dogs, the Huskies snapped off a 25-yard touchdown run with 1:38 to go to inch the total 'over' (46.5).

TCU fought back with 22 straight points to open the fourth quarter, closing a 25-point gap to three, covering a 3 1/2-point number with 5:36 to go. It wouldn't last, however, as the Sooners moved it down the field and kicked the three with 1:55 to go, pushing the win back in the favor of Oklahoma side bettors.

Opening Line Report - Week 6
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Here’s a peek at the early betting action and the thoughts of two Las Vegas oddsmakers on some key games for Week 6 of the college football regular season:

Virginia Tech at North Carolina (-2.5)

North Carolina survived Florida State’s comeback bid Saturday and has lost a total of two regular-season games over the past two seasons. This week, the Tar Heels return home, where they have won nine straight.

Our oddsmakers, though, both flipped the conversation to Virginia Tech.

"(North Carolina is) winning close ones, they’re scoring a lot of points, they’re giving up a lot of points. But that’s not the story here. The story is Virginia Tech," said John Avello, vice president of race and sports and the Wynn, the first book in Las Vegas to post college football lines each week.

The Hokies are 3-1 on the season, the loss coming against Tennessee at Bristol Motor Speedway, 45-24. Their three wins are against Liberty, Boston College and East Carolina. Despite that level of competition, bookmakers are impressed.

Virginia Tech’s Justin Fuente is a "really good coach, and it’s pretty obvious that they’re a team on the rise, and the line says it as well," said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

While the Wynn took some favorite action after opening UNC -3 on Sunday night and momentarily bumped the number to -3.5, it didn’t take long for it to come back the other way.

"The line is going to come down, not because North Carolina is playing poorly, because they’re not," Avello said. "The players are going to want to play Tech here, thinking they can win this game straight up."

Sure enough, a few hours after we spoke, Avello moved to 2.5, and at least one other book – CG Technology – was dealing 2.

Notre Dame at N.C. State (pick ‘em)

In an indication of how down bettors are on Notre Dame, Avello opened the Irish as 3.5-point favorites only to watch a flood of underdog money move him to a pick ‘em.

"I’m kind of shocked it moved down that far, to be honest with you," Avello said. "N.C. State is 3-1, but the competition has been really, really weak." The Wolfpack lost to East Carolina, and beat William & Mary, Old Dominion and Wake Forest.

When they stepped up in class last year to play teams like Louisville, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina and Mississippi State, they lost every time, Avello pointed out. None of N.C. State’s seven wins last season were against what one would consider a quality opponent.

Despite Notre Dame’s defensive woes, Avello said, "I still disagree with the move. I can see this game coming back the other way."

Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas

The Wynn opened Oklahoma -9.5, moved to -10.5 later Sunday night and made a half-point adjustment in Texas’ direction on Monday.

Compared to the last three years of the Red River Showdown, this season’s version features a short line. The Sooners have been -16, -16.5, and 13-point favorites in three most recent meetings, but lost two of those games outright and covered the spread in none of them.

If it wasn’t for Texas’ uninspiring performance in its loss to Oklahoma State on Saturday, the spread would have been even shorter, according to Avello. Texas is also dealing with injuries to two running backs, D'Onta Foreman (probable) and Chris Warren (out).

"That loss changed their power rating a few points," Avello said.

The Westgate’s Salmons thought Texas was in an ideal spot on Saturday, as the Longhorns were coming off a bye and facing a Cowboys team that had been an emotional rollercoaster over the past several weeks.

"There was no reason for Texas not to go in there and give them their best shot and win that game," Salmons said, "They played zero defense. .... Texas absolutely imploded. I mean, it was embarrassingly bad. They literally quit at the end of that game."

If you are thinking about taking the points Saturday, you may be cheering alone. Neither bookmaker anticipates much Texas money.

"It’s a one-way number, the way Texas is playing right now," Salmons said of the early line. "They can’t stop anyone. Every team scores 50 points against them. …. Wherever you put the line up, everyone’s going to bet on Oklahoma. It’s going to close 11.5, 12, 13, whatever."

Florida State at Miami (-3)

Miami hasn’t beaten Florida State since 2009 and hasn’t been favored in the series since 2010. But the Hurricanes are undefeated, and the 3-2 Seminoles are having major issues on defense.

"Miami’s been playing great this year. There’s nothing fluky about them so far," Salmons said. "So I would think this is a really good shot for Miami to win a game against Florida State, which they haven’t been able to do in a long time."

Avello is reserving judgement on Miami.

"Miami is 4-0 but hasn’t played a top 30 team yet – unless you want to call Georgia Tech a top 30 team – but this is the real test."

Saturday’s game against their in-state rival is also the beginning of a brutal stretch of schedule for the Hurricanes. The next four weeks bring North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, at Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.

As of about 4:30 p.m. ET Monday, nearly every Las Vegas sports book was dealing Miami -3 for this game, although some 2.5s and 2s have flashed on betting boards around town.

Tennessee at Texas A&M (-7)

The line on this SEC clash seesawed during early wagering at the Wynn, which opened Texas A&M -6.5 and was bet to as low as -5.5. Avello said he’s taken bets on both sides.

Running back Jalen Hurd looks like a go for Tennessee.

Vols believers will point to the fact the team is 5-0 and that they are resilient, coming back from off the ropes several times this season, including stunning Georgia with a game-winning Hail Mary on Saturday. Doubters wonder when their luck will run out.

"Tennessee is off back-to-back miracle wins. I don’t know what they have left in their gas tank," Salmons said. "At some point, the miracles are going run out on Tennessee, and this will probably be the week."

Avello, though, thinks the momentum from the win in Athens may carry over to College Station.

"That just propels you going into the next game, a play like that," he said. "This is a very difficult game for A&M. I think this is going to be a close one."

Washington (-8 ) at Oregon

Washington’s power rating "shot way up" after the Huskies’ 44-6 thrashing of Stanford on Friday night, Avello said, and Oregon has lost three straight. The sizable point spread on next week’s Pac 12 contest is the result.

"When did you ever see Oregon get 8 points at home?," Avello asked. "It just goes to show you, one team has fallen off and there’s a new guy in town."

Avello, though, hinted bettors should be careful with Washington in this spot.

"They were life-and-death at Arizona two weeks prior, and the rest of their schedule is s---. Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. I like the team, I like the coach (Chris Petersen), but I wouldn’t get too crazy here."

Alabama (-13.5) at Arkansas

While this line didn’t move in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn, other shops put 14s on their boards Monday.

The numbers present a dilemma for bettors: Either lay two touchdowns on the road against a tough SEC team that is traditionally strong as an underdog, or bet against mighty Alabama. Neither option is appealing.

"This game has zero play on it," Avello said. "I mean, there might be a couple grand on the game, but there’s nobody that really touched it, so (sharp bettors) thought the number was right and didn’t know what to do with it."

Added Salmons, "Arkansas is going have a hard time scoring against Alabama. That’s usually the kind of matchup Alabama has a lot of success with, teams that play slow and try to run the ball. They’ll have no chance to run against Alabama. But laying that many points on road is difficult."

If you are inclined to take the point here, Avello offered a strategy to consider.

"If I was going to bet this game and I liked the underdog, I would probably take them in the first half," he said. "You get a little bit more than 7 in the first half, maybe 7.5, and you take a chance that they’re highly motivated, their game plan is intact and maybe they keep it close. Alabama has a way of adjusting in the second half and make good teams look bad."

Early Line Moves

These games moved 2 points or more in the favorite’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Temple vs. Memphis
Opening line: Memphis -8
After 23 hours: Memphis -10

Tulane vs. Central Florida
Opening line: UCF -11
After 23 hours: UCF -13

SMU vs. Tulsa
Opening line: Tulsa -13
After 23 hours: Tulsa -17

Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan
Opening line: Toledo -15
After 23 hours: Toledo -17

These games moved 2 points or more in the underdog’s direction in the first 23 hours of wagering at the Wynn.

Maryland vs. Penn State
Opening line: Penn State -3.5
After 23 hours: Penn State -1

Army vs. Duke
Opening line: Duke -6
After 23 hours: Duke -4

Indiana vs. Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -32.5
After 23 hours: Ohio State -30

Notre Dame vs. N.C. State
Opening line: Notre Dame -3.5
After 23 hours: pick ‘em

Bowling Green vs. Ohio
Opening line: Ohio -14.5
After 23 hours: Ohio -12

Air Force vs. Wyoming
Opening line: Air Force -13
After 23 hours: Air Force -10

Georgia vs. South Carolina
Opening line: Georgia -9.5
After 23 hours: Georgia -7.5

Fresno State vs. Nevada
Opening line: Nevada -11.5
After 23 hours: Nevada -9.5

Washington State vs. Stanford
Opening line: Stanford -12
After 23 hours: Stanford -8

ACC Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Notre Dame at North Carolina State

All eyes will be on the tropics, as Hurricane Matthew is menacing the Southeast United States this week, and will be threatening the Tar Heel state Saturday. The possibility exists that kickoff could be moved, or even the venue could be changed. Notre Dame righted the ship somewhat last weekend in E. Rutherford, N.J., powering past Syracuse 50-33. The Irish haven't been able to post a streak against the number lately, going 0-4 ATS in their past four following a cover. They are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 against teams with a winning overall record, however. N.C. State is equally inept at following up covers with more covers, going 1-5 ATS in their past six after a straight up win, and 1-4 ATS in their past five following a cover. The 'over' could be the play here, as it is 4-0 in the past four road games for Notre Dame, 6-1 in their past seven overall and 6-2 in their past eight road outings against a team with a winning home mark. For N.C. State, the over is 6-0-1 in their past seven overall, 5-0-1 in their past six at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh and 4-1 in their past five following a straight up victory. The total has been bet down from an opening line of 67 1/2 to 63 1/2 as of Wednesday morning, with the Wolfpack short 'dogs at home.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh

The Yellow Jackets and Panthers needn't worry about the weather, but bettors need to worry about each team's struggles against the spread. Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight dating back to last season, 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 ACC games and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six on the road. Pitt is 5-16 ATS in its past 21 home games, 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five home games against a team with a winning road mark. Something's gotta give. Pitt is favored by a touchdown in this one. Pittsburgh has struggled to stop the pass, but that's not a strong suit of Ga. Tech. The 'under' is 6-2-1 in the past nine overall for the Yellow Jackets, and 5-2 in their past seven on the road as well as inside the conference. The 'over' is 4-0 for Pitt in the past four, and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall record.

Virginia Tech at North Carolina

The Hokies and Tar Heels are another game potentially bothered by the affects of Hurricane Matthew. If the game does go off as scheduled, there could be plenty of wind and rain which could tamp down the offensive production for both sides. The total opened at 62 and has slipped to 59 as of Wednesday morning. The Tar Heels are coming off an impressive road win at Florida State, Dave Doeren's first signature win at the helm in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels are now 9-3 ATS in the past 12 against teams with a winning record, and they're 21-6 ATS in their past 27 games at Kenan against a team with a winning road mark. The Hokies were blazed by Tennessee earlier in the season, but they have been good lately. They're 4-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, and also 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Chapel Hill. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series, with the 'under' hitting in eight of the past nine meetings.

Army at Duke

Yet another game which might be impacted by Hurricane Matthew, Army and Duke are tentatively set to battle at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. Duke has been as unpredictable as the weather lately, losing at home to Wake Forest, winning the biggest game in program history at Notre Dame and then coming home to lay an egg against lowly Virginia. The Black Knights have had two weeks to stew after losing a heartbreaker at Buffalo, their first setback after a 3-0 SU/ATS start. These sides met last season in West Point with Duke rolling to a 44-3 win, but this Blue Devils team isn't as prolific and Army is much improved. Duke enters favored by four points. Army is just 8-22-1 ATS in the past 31 on the road, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against ACC foes. Duke is 2-5 ATS in their past seven at Wallace Wade, and 0-5 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning overall record.

Syracuse at Wake Forest

The Orange might wish they were at home under the comfort of their dome and away from the elements, as the weather in Winston-Salem could be breezy and damp. While the Triad is well away from the coast, plenty of rain could push inland to impact this game. As we've seen in the other North Carolina games, the total has been bet down from 57 1/2 to 54 1/2. The over is 6-1 in Syracuse's past seven road games, 5-1 in their past six ACC games and 12-5 in their past 17 games overall. It's the opposite for Wake, as the under is 13-6-1 in their past 20 home games, 21-10 in their past 31 conference tilts and 22-8-2 in their past 32 against teams with a losing overall record.

Florida State at Miami-Florida

The marquee game of the ACC weekend takes place in Miami, and as long as there isn't any storm damage or travel issues. FSU enters the game 0-2 in the conference for the first time since 2011. The Seminoles are looking to avoid an 0-3 conference start for the first time ever in ACC play, and will likely look on Miami-native Dalvin Cook to run early and often. This is Miami's biggest test, as arguably their biggest challenges have been road outings at Appalachian State and Georgia Tech, not exactly the cream of the crop. FSU is still 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a winning home reocrd. Miami has covered all four of their games. However, the Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Miami, and the road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The underdog has also cashed in 14 of the past 17 in this Sunshine State rivalry, with the 'under' 7-2-1 in the past 10 in Miami, and 5-0 in the past five overall.

Bye Week

Louisville, Virginia

Big 12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Texas Christian at Kansas

Neither of these teams have been very good against the number, and generally the Jayhawks haven't been very good on the scoreboard, either. TCU lost a shootout to Oklahoma last weekend, and they have allowed 31.4 points per game (PPG) through five outings, including 41 or more points in three of their games. TCU is averaging 43.4 PPG, and they'll be able to move the ball against a Kansas team which has given up at least 37 points in each of the past three outings. TCU is 1-4 ATS in the past five overal, while Kansas is 17-35-1 ATS in the past 53 against teams with a winning overall record. The Jayhawks are also 1-5 ATS in their past six overall and 1-6 ATS in the past seven in the Big 12. However, for whatever reason, Kansas gives TCU fits. They're a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past four meetings in this series, and the underdog has covered five straight.

Texas vs. Oklahoma

The Red River rivalry has lost some of its luster with both combatants entering with 2-2 records and no shot at a playoff spot. Still, this should be a hotly contested game, as neither side wants a third loss before the leaves have fully turned. Texas enters this game 5-2 ATS in their past seven neutral-site games, while Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS in their past eight inside the conference, including last weekend's shootout at TCU. However, the Sooners are 0-5 ATS in the past five neutral-site games. The Longhorns have dominated this series lately, at least against the number, going 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings. That includes years when Oklahoma has had a much more superior team. This season Texas has closed the gap considerably.

Iowa State at Oklahoma State

Iowa State played their hearts out against Baylor last weekend, losing a 45-42 heartbreaker but cover a 17-point number. The Cyclones have covered three in a row, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts. Despite the cover last weekend I-State is just 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 against teams with a winning overall record, and they're 1-4 SU overall. Oklahoma State lost a controversial game at home to Central Michigan earlier in the season, but have wins in two home games against Pitt and Texas since then. They enter as a 17-point favorite as they look for their fifth straight cover in Stillwater against the Cyclones. OK State is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall, while the favorite is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 and the home team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The over is 5-1 in Iowa State's past six conference tilts, while the over is 9-3 in OK State's past 12 overall and 7-1 inside the Big 12.

Texas Tech at Kansas State

Texas Tech heads to Manhattan looking to keep their high-powered offense on track. The Red Raiders have scored at least 55 points in each of their past four outings, leading the nation in total yards and passing yards. They're also No. 1 in points scored with 59.5 PPG. However, QB Patrick Mahomes II (shoulder) is questionable for the game, so that will be a big determining factor if they can win on the road and cover. K-State is 21-8-1 ATS in their past 30 against teams with a winning overall record, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning road record. The over has cashed in seven of the past eight meetings in this series, with the favorite 6-2 ATS in the past eight. K-State has covered four of the past five meetings in this series. They enter as a touchdown favorite in this one.

Bye Week

Baylor, West Virginia

Pac-12 Report - Week 6
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Colorado at Southern California

This game has plenty of questions, with the biggest one being is Colorado for real? We'll get a good indication early in their visit to USC, a team which looked awfully good last weekend against a previously unbeaten Arizona State team. The Buffaloes have covered all five of their games, and they are off to a 2-0 conference start after dropping both of the Oregon schools. The Buffaloes are back in the Top 25 for the first time since 2005, and if they hope to remain they need a signature win against the Trojans. QB Steven Montez filled in admirably over the past two outings for the injured QB Sefo Liufau, who is ready to return. It's uncertain who head coach Mike MacIntyre plans to use under center. Colorado enters 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a losing home record. USC enters just 3-8 ATS over their past 11 overall dating back to last season, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight in conference. That includes a 27-24 win and non-cover at Colorado last November.

Washington at Oregon

Washington annihilated Stanford 44-6 last weekend in Seattle, now take it on the road to battle a wounded, yet still very dangerous Oregon team. The Ducks have dropped an uncharacteristic three games in a row, including two straight to open their conference schedule. A win over Washington could save their season. If Oregon is able to grab the 'W', it would be a 13th straight victory over the Huskies for the 'Webfoots'. The Huskies enter 6-2 ATS over their past eight overall, 13-5 ATS in their past 18 against teams with an overall losing record and 4-0 ATS in their past four on the road against teams with a losing home record. Oregon is still 14-5 ATS in their past 19 conference tilts while going 27-11-1 ATS in their past 39 against teams with an overall winning record. Still, those trends for Oregon have come with much better teams. Oregon is 0-4 ATS in their past four home games, which is a bit more indicative of this team. Washington enters 3-12-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings with Oregon, and 0-6-1 ATS in the past seven in their House of Horrors, Autzen Stadium. Washington enters as a nine-point favorite as of Wednesday morning.

California at Oregon State

Cal has alternated wins and losses this season through five games, and they're coming off an impressive 28-23 win at home against previously unbeaten Utah. If that trend holds up, Oregon State is ready to pull off an upset as a 12 1/2-point underdog in Corvallis. But the Beavers are terrible, losing all three of its games against FBS teams this season. Oregon State had been a tough out, though, losing by seven at Minnesota and 14 against Boise State. However, they had their clocks cleaned in Boulder last week, falling 47-6 to Colorado. Cal has an Air Raid passing attack capable of putting up points in a hurry. They pounded Oregon State 54-24 last November, and a similar result is likely in this one.

Arizona at Utah

The Wildcats hit the road for Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City and they'll meet an angry Utah team coming off a 28-23 loss at Cal last weekend. Arizona hasn't fared very well against the number, going 1-4 ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS in two games away from home. Utah looks to avenge an overtime setback in Arizona last season, 37-30. The Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their past five conference games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with an overall losing record. They haven't followed up failure very well, either, going 0-4 ATS in their past four following a straight-up loss. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings with Utah, and they're also 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to SLC. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series.

UCLA at Arizona State

UCLA heads to Tempe looking to avoid a third loss, while Arizona State looks to get back on track after an ugly loss at USC last weekend. The Bruins have owned this series, at least against the number, going 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings. The road team has also covered four of the past five meetings in this series. UCLA has been ice-cold against the spread lately, though, going 1-4 ATS in their past five against winning teams, 1-6 ATS in their past seven dating back to last season and 0-4 ATS in their past four on the road. AZ State is 5-0 ATS in their past five against winning teams, 6-0 ATS in their past six games at home and 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall, although one of those two ATS losses came last week at USC. The over has cashed in five of the past six meetings in this series, and the over is 4-1 in Arizona State's past five at home. The over is also 5-0 in AZ States past five against teams with a winning record.

Washington State at Stanford

Washington State picked up an important win at home against Oregon, but they'll have their work cut out against an angry Stanford team which was embarrassed 44-6 at Washington a week ago. The Cougars have been red hot against the number, going 5-0 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a winning home record, 8-0 ATS in their past eight overall against winning teams, 9-1 ATS in their past 10 conference games and 6-1 ATS in their past seven road outings. They're also 13-3 ATS in their past 16 games overall. For Stanford, they are 40-18-1 ATS in their past 59 games on 'The Farm', and they're a strong 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games following a straight up loss. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, but the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in this series. Stanford enters as a 7 1/2-point favorite.

Big Ten Report - Week 6
By ASAWins.com

Maryland (-1) at Penn State

Penn State – The Nits picked up a huge win in OT last week coming from behind to top Minnesota 29-26. At halftime it looked like PSU was in big trouble down 10 and having put up only a FG in the first half. They went into the locker room averaging just 5.1 YPP and passing for just 95 yards. That pretty much played to the script of PSU all season as they have been outscored 92-54 in the 1st half this year. In the 2nd half the Lions erupted for 26 points, 295 yards passing, and over 9.0 YPP. PSU was 2-2 coming into the game and last week was pretty much dubbed a must win for a once proud program trying to turn the corner. The reaction of the players after the win speaks volumes. "That’s the best our locker room has ever been," said kicker Tyler Davis, a smiling redshirt junior. "That was awesome. I think that could really be a turning point to our season." Now sitting at 3-2 vs a tough schedule thus far (Kent, Pitt, Temple, Michigan, and Minnesota) the Nittany Lions have a chance to keep the momentum going with 2 more home games the next 2 Saturdays. Despite being above .500, PSU is getting outgained by an average of almost 40 YPG. Much of that, however, we due to their game at Michigan where they were outgained by well over 300 yards. Most of their other games were fairly even yardage wise. This week they played an undefeated Maryland team and this line has swung from Penn State -1 to Maryland -1 or -1.5 as of this writing on Wednesday.

Maryland – The Terps are 4-0 on the season but how good this team is has yet to be seen. In fact, none of their wins have come against a team ranked higher 63rd (Sagarin Ratings) with victories over FIU, UCF, Howard, and Purdue. That being said, last week’s win vs the Boilers was an impressive one. They put up 50 points, outrushed Purdue 400 yards to just 10 yards, and scored on 7 of their 12 drives (not including the drives that ended in a turnover). The Terps have now outgained 3 of their 4 opponents, UCF being the only exception, by a combined total of 564 yards. One huge reason for Maryland’s improvement is QB play. Interceptions thrown to be exact. This season the Terps have thrown only 1 interception making them one of eleven teams in the nation that has thrown one or fewer picks. Last year this team threw a whopping 29 interceptions which was the most in the nation by a full 6 picks. On top of not turning the ball over, QB Perry Hills has increased his completion percentage by 11% from last year and increased his yards per attempt by 2 full yards. We’ll quickly find out if Maryland is for real as their schedule now gets significantly more difficult. After Penn State, this team plays Minnesota, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska in the upcoming weeks.

Last Year – If history is an indicator, we can expect a close game between these two. Last year PSU traveled to Maryland and squeaked out a 31-30 win despite getting outgained by 100 yards. The Terps turned the ball over 5 times in that game. The previous season Maryland won at Penn State by a final score of 20-19.

Inside the Numbers – If this number stays where it is, it will be the first time that Maryland has been favored in a conference game on the road since joining the Big Ten in 2014. Since 2005, PSU has been a home underdog just 11 times covering only 3 of those games. The Nittany Lions have dominated this series going 12-1-1 SU (5-8-1 ATS) since 1980.

Iowa (-2) at Minnesota

Minnesota – The Gophs are off OT road loss at PSU 29-26. The yardage was almost dead even but Minnesota ran a whopping 90 offensive plays to just 70 for Penn State. That was their first loss of the year after running up a 3-0 mark in the non-conference season (Oregon State, Indiana State, and Colorado State). Minnesota will “possibly” receive a boost this week as head coach Tracy Claeys has reinstated 4 suspended players including Hardin and Buford, two of the Gophs top corners. However, Claeys has said he’s not sure the players will play this Saturday. They could especially use Harding and Buford as injuries mount in the defensive backfield. On the other side of the ball, Minny welcomed back starting RB Shannon Brooks from injury two weeks ago vs Colorado State. He has given the offense a boost rushing for 185 yards on just 27 carries in his two games. That could be a problem for the Iowa defense that has given up 183 YPG on the ground after allowing just 121 YPG last season. One thing Minnesota does have to clean up is their penalty situation. They lead the Big Ten in penalty yardage at 76 YPG. That was after committing only 45 YPG in penalties last year and just 46 the year before.

Iowa – The Hawks continued their struggles by losing at home last Saturday to Northwestern. The Cats won the game 38-31 topping 30 points for first time since last September – a span of 15 games. It was also the first time the Iowa defense allowed more than 35 points in a regular season game since the 2014 season. Coming into the game the Wildcats were ranked 125th (out of 128) in scoring offense before they exploded last Saturday. Offensively, the Hawkeyes continued to struggle despite their 31 point output. The fact is, Iowa put up only 283 total yards on 68 plays for just 4.1 YPP. Even more disturbing was the Iowa running game tallied only 79 yards on 41 carries for 1.9 YPC. The previous week the Hawkeyes scored only 7 points on a Rutgers team that allowed 58 last Saturday vs Ohio State. While Iowa sits at 3-2 on the season, they have been outgained in every game but one this season. The good news is, they are fairly healthy. Besides the key loss of WR Vandeburg in the Rutgers game, the Hawks had no new injuries last week vs Northwestern.

Last Year – These two battle for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy which Iowa currently holds after a 40-35 win last season. The Hawkeyes led 40-28 late when Minnesota scored with just 1:15 remaining to make it close.

Inside the Numbers – The home team has won 9 of the last 11 in this Big Ten series. Since 1980, Iowa has been favored at Minnesota 13 times. The Hawkeyes are just 4-9 ATS in those games and even more telling just 6-7 SU. Two years ago they were favored by 1.5 at Minnesota and lost 51-14! Since the start of the 2007 season, Minnesota is 15-8 ATS as a home underdog.

Indiana at Ohio State (-29)

Ohio State – Talk about sheer domination. The Buckeyes beat Rutgers 58-0 last week but dare we say the final score didn’t indicate how dominant OSU was in that game? They outgained the Scarlet Knights 669-116! That’s the same Rutgers team that outgained Iowa a week earlier and gave the Hawkeyes all they could handle in a 14-7 loss. The 553 yard differential was the widest gap for the Buckeyes since Urban Meyer took the helm 5 years ago. It’s actually the second time already this year that OSU has outgained an opponent by more than 500 yards (Bowling Green). The Rutgers offense did not cross midfield the entire game. After 4 games, the Buckeyes closest game was a 21-point margin at Oklahoma. They’ve outscored their opponents 228-37 and outgained their four foes 2,305-952. The Bucks are 4-0 ATS covering those 4 games by a combined 94 points or 23.5 points per game. On top of that, this team is rested as the starters have been able to sit a fair portion in the 2nd half of 3 of their 4 games. They are also healthy.

Indiana – IU is off a huge win for the program topping Michigan State at home last week 24-21 in overtime. It was just their 7th win over MSU in the last 32 meetings. The Hoosier offense continues to hum along on offense under head coach Kevin Wilson averaging 29 PPG on 497 YPG. The surprise has been their defense. They are allowing “just” 21 PPG on 373 YPG. While that may not seem like a big deal, remember this Indiana team gave up over 37 PPG and more than 500 YPG last season. They have allowed 32 PPG or more in each of the last 6 seasons so this year has been a huge improvement. IU has actually played Ohio State very tough the last two seasons. Last year they had the ball inside OSU’s 10-yard line and a chance to tie the game with under 1:00 minute left before losing 34-27 as a 21.5 point underdog. A year earlier the Bucks were favored by 36.5 points at home and actually trailed with under 3:00 to go in the 3rd quarter. OSU won the game 42-27. That means the Hoosiers have covered vs OSU each of the last two years by a combined 36 points.

Last Year – Indiana gave OSU a scare last year in Bloomington with the Bucks winning 34-27. IU actually had the ball first & goal on Ohio State’s 6-yard line with under 1:00 remaining in the game but couldn’t get it into the endzone.

Inside the Numbers – As you would expect, OSU leads this series with an imposing 72-12-5 all-time record. The Hoosiers last outright win over the Buckeyes was way back in 1988. However, Indiana has now covered 5 in a row in this series by a combined 71 points (14.2 points per game).

Purdue at Illinois (-10.5)

Illinois – The Illini gave Nebraska all they could handle in Lincoln last week before falling 31-16. The game was much closer than that throughout as Illinois led heading into the 4th quarter and trailed just 17-16 with under 5:00 remaining in the game. It looked like the Illini defense wore down late in the game. In Nebraska’s 3 TD drives in the 4th quarter the Huskers pretty much kept the ball on the gournd and Illinois could not stop them. Those 3 drives combined for 205 total yards of which only 38 were through the air. Fatigue could be problem moving forward as the Illini have not controlled the clock and the defense has been on the field too much. In the last two games (Western Michigan & Nebraska) the Illini have held the ball for 48 minutes compared to 72 minutes for their opponents. They’ve also been outscored 28-0 in the 4th quarter in those two games. For the season, they have been outscored 45-17 in the 4th quarter. Last week’s loss dropped them to 1-3 on the year yet they are favored by double digits here. If you throw out their lone win vs FCS Murray State, the Illini are 0-3 and have been outscored by 64 points (21.3 PPG) and outgained by 428 yards (142 YPG). However, those 3 opponents have combined for a 14-1 record so all is not lost for the Illini.

Purdue – The Boilers were destroyed last week at Maryland 50-7 allowing the Terps to gash them for 400 yards on the ground. You can bet after rushing for 392 yards on 9.1 YPC last year and seeing the results from last week, Illinois will attempt to run the ball 40+ times on Saturday. Not only did Purdue allow 400 yards rushing but they only came up with 10 yards rushing on 27 carries. The task of running the ball might not get any easier as Purdue’s top RB and top offensive weapon Markell Jones injured his shoulder last week and may not play on Saturday. With that loss, Purdue has a record of 2-23 SU their last 25 Big Ten games! Even more telling, 18 of those 23 losses came by at least 10 points. They are also just 7-36 SU their last 43 road games. Their overall numbers aren’t terrible as Purdue is 2-2 on the season (same number of wins as all of last year) and they are outgaining their opponents by 7 yards per game. However, they were whipped by the two decent teams they played (Cincinnati & Maryland) both on the scoreboard and in the stat line. Purdue built up big stat advantages in their two wins over sub-par opponents Eastern Kentucky & Nevada, ranked 175th and 118th respectively (Sagarin ratings).

Last Year – The Illini destroyed Purdue in West Lafayette last year 48-14. It was no fluke as Illinois rolled up almost 600 total yards and held Purdue to just 263. They outrushed the Boilers by almost 300 yards in the game.

Inside the Numbers – Since the start of the 2011 season, the Illini have been double digit favorites vs a conference opponent just 3 times (1-2 ATS) and they lost 2 of those games outright. Purdue has been an underdog in 25 of their last 26 Big Ten games. The Boilers are just 1-14 SU their last 15 road games. However, Purdue is 10-2 ATS the last 12 times they’ve been tabbed a double digit underdog.

Michigan (-27.5) at Rutgers

Rutgers – The Wolverines should be licking their chops here after watching Ohio State put up almost 700 yards of total offense last week vs this Rutgers defense. The Knights were gashed for 7.5 yards per play while picking up only 2.1 YPP on offense. OSU ran a whopping 89 offensive plays to just 54 for Rutgers. At one point Ohio State scored points on 9 straight possessions. Offensively the Knights completed only 3 passes the ENTIRE GAME and rushed for only 2.2 YPC. However, Rutgers was playing quite well leading into last week’s blowout loss winning 2 of their 3 previous games with their only loss coming at home to Iowa by 7 points. If you throw out last week’s result, the Scarlet Knights had actually outgained their opponents by a combined 103 yards on the season. It’s possible this game might be affected by poor weather conditions as Hurricane Matthew is expected to affect the East Coast on Saturday. That can sometimes “even out” the playing field for an underdog playing a heavy favorite. We’ll see.

Michigan – Are the Wolverines actually playing on the road this weekend? Yes it’s true. Michigan travels to Rutgers leaving the friendly confines of the Big House for the first time this season. The Wolverines topped Wisconsin last week 14-7 in a game they controlled more than the final score indicated. The Michigan defense was ultra-impressive holding Wisconsin to just 159 total yards. The Badgers running game was able to average only 2.5 YPC and QB Hornibrook completed just 9 of his 25 passes. Michigan moved the ball fairly well against a very good Wisconsin defense totaling 349 yards. It was the first time this year they were held under 45 points. The Wolves were dealt a big blow though as starting LT Newsome was lost for the remainder of the season with a knee injury. Much has been made of Michigan’s “easy” schedule but they have played two very good teams and beat them up pretty good. They topped Colorado by 17 points and the Buffs have since won at Oregon and crushed Oregon State by 41 points. Last week’s win over Wisconsin wasn’t hugely impressive on the scoreboard but outgaining the Badgers by nearly 200 yards was. This week’s game at Rutgers probably won’t tell us much and that leads into a Michigan bye week.

Last Year – Michigan is favored by more in this game (-27.5) than they were last year at home vs Rutgers. A year ago the Wolves were favored by 24 and whipped Rutgers 49-16. Two years ago, in their first and only other meeting, Rutgers upset Michigan at home 26-24 and the fans stormed the field.

Inside the Numbers – Michigan has not been a road favorite of more than 24 points since the 1998 season. They have not been a road favorite of that magnitude vs another Big Ten teams since 1992. They’ve only been a favorite of more than 24 points (home or away) in Big Ten play ONCE since the 2006 season. Rutgers has not been a home dog of 24 points or more since the 2003 season. Can the Knights pull the upset? Not likely as Rutgers is just 1-42 SU their last 43 as a double digit underdog.

BYU at Michigan State (-6)

This lined opened MSU -4.5 and pushed to -6. Sparty is off back to back losses and they were favored in both (vs Wisconsin & Indiana). That is rare occurrence as entering this season MSU had a SU record of 66-10 the last 76 times they took the field as a favorite. The last time they lost back to back games when favored was back in 2012 when Nebraska & Northwestern beat them. This MSU offense has been underperforming making it tough on the “D”. They looked great a few weeks ago rolling up 36 points at Notre Dame. In hindsight, that performance doesn’t look all that impressive anymore as the Irish defense has been torched twice since that game for 38 & 33 points by the likes of Duke and Syracuse. Other than that game, this Michigan State offense scored 24 points vs Furman, 6 vs Wisconsin, and 21 vs an Indiana defense that allowed 37 PPG last season. BYU is traveling back to the eastern time zone for the 2nd time in 3 weeks after playing West Virginia at Fed Ex Field in Washington DC on September 24th. If BYU’s previous performances are any indication, we can expect a close game here. BYU is 3-2 on the season and their 5 games have been decided by a TOTAL of 11 points. The Cougars are already 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year and going back further they have covered 20 of their last 28 when getting points. Sparty has covered 6 of their last 7 when off back to back SU losses. Finally, the last time Michigan State lost 3 games in a row outright was back in 2009.

NCAAF Week 6

Maryland-Penn State split pair of one-point decisions last two years; Terrapins scored 40.3 pts/game in winning first three I-A games, but they step up in class here, against PSU squad that needed OT to beat Minnesota LW. Maryland is 5-8 in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less points. Under Franklin, Nittany Lions are 2-2-1 in such games. Terms ran for 295 yards/game last three weeks; they had 400 YR in LW’s Big 14 opener vs Purdue. PSU allowed 554 rushing yards in its last two games, vs Michigan/Minnesota. Terms are 15-9 vs spread in last 24 road games.

Iowa lost two of last three games and win was 14-7 at Rutgers, hardly impressive; they also lost to I-AA North Dakota State. Hawkeyes had been 9-0 as a road favorite last 4+ years before not covering at Rutgers. Favorites covered last four Iowa-Minnesota games; Hawkeyes are 11-4 in last 15 series games, but are 2-4 in last visits here, winning 23-7/55-0- they survived wild 40-35 (-9.5) home win vs Minnesota LY. Gophers lost in OT at Penn State LW; total yardage was 471-469; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog, 2-4 in last six games with spread of 3 or less points.

Virginia Tech is 9-3 in last 12 games with North Carolina, 4-3 in last seven; Hokies won five of last six visits to Chapel Hill- favorites covered four of last five series games at UNC. Tar Heels won last two games by total of 3 points; they’ve got to come back to earth after huge win LW at Florida State, making 54-yard FG on last play. UNC has allowed 31.8 pts/game vs I-A foes this year. Tech is 8-6-1 in its last 15 games with spread of 3 or less points; this is Hokies’ first true road game- they lost 45-24 to Tennessee on neutral field at Bristol. Tech is 5-2 in its last seven games as a road dog. UNC is 3-6 in its last nine games with spread of 3 or less points.

NC State/Notre Dame haven’t met since a bowl game 14 years ago. Fighting Irish are 2-3, giving up 33+ points, 489+ TY in four of five games- they lost 50-47 in OT at Texas, in only true road game this year. ND is 6-9 vs spread in last 15 true road games. Wolfpack scored 34 pts/game in its three I-A games but step up in class here; State is 2-6 as home dog under Doeren- they threw for 639 yards in last two games. Notre Dame is 4-2 in last six games with spread of 3 or less points; State is 3-7 in its last ten. ACC underdogs are 6-4 vs spread out of conference this season.

Texas allowed 788 PY, 99 points in losing last two games; at disappointing 2-2, only team they held under 47 points this season is UTEP. Oklahoma allowed 91 points in splitting last two games- they beat TCU 52-46 LW, giving up 449 PY. Underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread in last nine Oklahoma-Texas games (3-0 last three years); Texas won two of last three years, despite being 12+-point dogs in all three games— Sooners averaged only 157.7 PY in those games. Longhorns are 8-4-1 in last 13 games as a double digit dog. Oklahoma is 14-17 in last 31 games as a double digit favorite.

Florida State’s defense is sub-par this year, giving up 42.3 pts/game vs I-A opponents. Losing on last-second 54-yard FG wrecked their season, tough bounce back here in rivalry game with an unbeaten Miami team. Underdogs are 12-3 vs spread in last 15 FSU-Miami games. Florida State won its last six games with Miami, with three of last five by 5 or less points; FSU won its last five visits here- they’ve won SU last four times they were a series underdog. Hurricanes won their I-A games by 28-35-14 points; they’re 12-3-2 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less points. Seminoles are 7-2 under Fisher when spread is 3 or less points.

Road team won last four UCLA-Arizona State games; Bruins won 62-27/45-43 in last two visits to Tempe. UCLA covered four of last five as a series favorite, but allowed 448+ TY in its last six games vs ASU. Bruins allowed 449 rushing yards last two weeks, vs Stanford/Arizona; they’re 8-5-1 as road favorites under Mora, 0-0-1 this year, winning 17-14 at BYU after losing at Texas A&M in OT. Sun Devils allowed 1,160 TY last two games; four of their five opponents threw ball for 366+ yards; they’re 5-11 as underdogs under Graham, 1-3 at home. Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 vs spread in conference games, 3-1 if an underdog.

Home side won six of last seven Georgia-South Carolina games; Dawgs lost last three visits here, by 3-28-11 points. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in series. Georgia allowed 79 points in losing last two games; they got their hearts torn out on last-play Hail Mary by Tennessee LW. Dawgs are giving up 32.5 pts/game vs I-A foes- they’re 5-7 in last 12 games as a road favorite. Carolina lost three of last four games; they allowed 432 rushing yards in last two games. SC has been held to 14 or less points in four of five games this year. Since 2009, Gamecocks are 7-1 as a home underdog.

Tennessee pulled rabbits out of a hat the last two weeks, scoring on Hail Mary to win LW after rallying from down 21-3 at half to beat Florida the week before; they play Alabama next week, better not look past this game. Vols are 4-5 as road underdogs under Jones; LW was their first true road game this year. Texas A&M is 5-0 with three wins away from home and an OT win over UCLA here, their only home game vs I-A foe; Aggies are 10-14 as home favorites under Sumlin, 1-0 this year- they’ve run ball for 254 yards/game vs I-A opponents this year. Teams last met in 2004.

Oregon lost its last three games, allowing 256 rushing yards, 42.3 pts/game; locusts will start circling over coach Helfrich with another loss here, vs Washington team Ducks have beaten 12 times in row, 11 by 17+ points (11-1 vs spread). Oregon is +10 in turnovers in last five series games. Huskies lost last six visits to Eugene (0-6 vs spread), but are 3-2 as road favorites under Petersen; they needed OT to win 35-28 at Arizona (-13) in only road game this season. Washington held Stanford to 216 TY in impressive 44-6 win last Friday. Oregon is a home underdog for first time in seven years; they allowed 1,244 TY in last two games.

Colorado is having a breakthrough season, off to a 4-1 start with win at Oregon; Buffs scored 88 points in last two games with a backup QB- they’ve run ball for 506 yards in last two games, are 4-0 vs spread this season. 5-2 in last seven games as a road underdog. USC is just 2-3, but won/covered its two home games, 45-7 over Utah State, 41-20 over ASU; they’re 10-5 in last 15 games as home favorite. Trojans won their last five games with Colorado (3-2 vs spread), scoring 44.4 pts/game; Buffs lost 50-6/56-28 in their last two visits here. Home favorites are 7-1 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games this season.

Alabama is 5-0 this season with four one-sided wins; they won 48-43 at Ole Miss in only true road game, rallying back from being down double digits in first half. Crimson Tide won its last nine games with Arkansas, winning by 1-13 points last two years; Bama is 5-3 vs spread in last eight series meetings, 4-0 SU in last four visits here, winning by 1-52-4-35 points- they’re 2-4 as a favorite in Arkansas. Razorbacks got waxed by Texas A&M two weeks ago, after winning tight games with La Tech/TCU to open season; Hogs are 4-4 as home dogs under Bielema. Arkansas allowed 34.3 pts/game in three games that weren’t against stiffs.

Washington State gave up 76 points in losing its first two games this year (ran ball 45 times for 137 yards), then ran ball for 75 times for 528 yards in last two games and won them, upsetting Oregon LW. Coogs are 13-3 vs spread in last 16 games as a road underdog. Stanford won its last eight games with Wazzu (5-3 vs spread); they’re +8 in turnovers in last four series games. Cardinal played USC-UCLA-Washington last three weekends; they got crushed by U-Dub last week, losing 44-6. Stanford is 12-6 in its last 18 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this season. Even in their three wins this year, Cardinal scored only 25 mpg, all against good teams, though.

Armadillosports.com

Saturday's SEC Action
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Tennessee at Texas A&M

Tennessee is poised to take its 11-game winning streak into College Station to face unbeaten Texas A&M. As of early Friday afternoon, most betting shops were listing the Aggies as seven-point favorites with a total of 57 points. The Volunteers were +230 on the money line (risk $100 to win $230).

With Thursday’s developments – LSU at Florida being postponed with the possibility that the game might not be played at all – coming about, Tennessee is under even more pressure to win. According to a response from the SEC to a question posed by Kyle Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, if Tennessee loses twice in SEC play (it has to face top-ranked Alabama next week) and Florida win its remaining conference games, the Gators would win the East instead of the Vols. UF would have a 6-1 SEC record, while UT would go 6-2 (assuming it wins the remaining SEC games after losses to A&M and Alabama). Therefore, UF’s “best winning percentage” would rule the day. This would be a gross injustice to Tennessee if this scenario plays out, but it appears to be a possibility at this time. Therefore, the best way to avoid it is to capture a win at Kyle Field this weekend.

The extra pressure from the aforementioned scenario could be just what the doctor ordered for a Tennessee squad that has been forced to overcome four double-digit deficits on its way to winning its first five games. UT trailed by 11 in its season opener, fell behind 14-0 in Week 2, was in a one-possession game with Ohio in the fourth quarter, was down 21-0 at home to a UF team that had beaten it in 11 straight meetings and then dealt with all sorts of obstacles in Athens last weekend. The Vols needed 20 yards of gift-wrapped penalties from Georgia and a Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play to get out of Sanford Stadium with a victory last weekend.

UGA jumped on UT 17-0 in the first half, but Butch Jones’s team trimmed to deficit to 17-7 on a four-yard touchdown run by Josh Dobbs with 12 ticks remaining in the second quarter. Then with 10:31 left in the third, Dobbs hooked up with Jalen Hurd on a 19-yard scoring strike. UGA would go back ahead by double digits on a 50-yard TD pass from Jacob Eason to Isaac Nauta. Then on the opening play of the final stanza, Dobbs found Alvin Kamara for a 16-yard TD pass. With 2:56 remaining, the Vols took their first lead when Derek Barnett hit Eason in the end zone and caused a fumble that was recovered by Corey Vereen for a TD. Then with 10 seconds left, Eason made up for his critical mistake by hitting Riley Ridley with a dart for an incredible 47-yard TD pass. However, the ensuing celebration prompted a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Then on the kickoff, UGA gave UT another five yards by being offside. This left the Vols with one play and Dobbs’s 43-yard pass to the end zone was caught by Jauan Jennings for the game-winning score.

Dobbs has completed 77-of-133 passes (57.9%) for 1,035 yards with a 13/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has also rushed for 267 yards and five TDs with a 4.1 yards-per-carry average. Hurd has rushed for a team-best 407 yards and two TDs with a 4.0 YPC average. Josh Malone has been Dobbs’s favorite target, hauling in 15 receptions for 310 yards and five TDs. Jennings has 12 catches for 213 yards and three TDs.

Texas A&M (5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the spread) went to Columbia last week without two elite WRs, Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil, and perhaps the best player in the nation in junior DE Myles Garrett. This trio was left behind to get treatment and rest up for this week’s showdown against the Vols. The Aggies won a 24-13 decision at South Carolina, but they never threatened to cover the number as 19.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The 37 combined points fell ‘under’ the 50.5-point total. Trayveon Williams rushed for 98 yards and one TD on 14 carries, while Trevor Knight rushed for 84 yards and one score on 12 attempts. Knight completed 23-of-40 passes for 206 yards with zero TD passes and one interception. Christian Kirk had 12 receptions for 61 yards, while Jeremy Tabuyo had four catches for 89 yards.

Texas A&M is 2-0 both SU and ATS at home this year, beating UCLA (31-24 in overtime) and Prairie View A&M (67-0). The Aggies have additional victories at Auburn (29-16) and vs. Arkansas (45-24 in Arlington at Jerry World).

Knight has connected on 98-of-181 throws (54.1%) for 1,261 yards with a 7/3 TD-INT ratio. The grad transfer from Oklahoma has rushed for 392 yards and six TDs with a 7.8 YPC average. Williams has run for a team-high 487 yards and four TDs with an eye-popping 9.0 YPC average. Reynolds has 20 receptions for 399 yards and three TDs, while Kirk has 33 catches for 272 yards and three TDs.

Tennessee (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) has wins vs. Appalachian St. (20-13 in overtime), vs. Va. Tech (45-24 in Bristol), vs. Ohio (28-19), vs. Florida (38-28) and at Georgia (34-31). The Vols failed to cover the spread last week in Athens as 3.5-point road favorites. The 65 combined points went ‘over’ on Eason’s TD pass with 10 seconds left.

Tennessee has been a road underdog nine times on Jones’s watch, going 4-5 ATS. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is 11-14 ATS in 25 games as a road favorite during Sumlin’s five-year tenure.

Texas A&M is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 15.4 points per game. This unit is led by Garrett, who has 11 tackles, five tackles for loss, three sacks and six QB hurries in four games. Senior LB Shaan Washington has a team-high 38 tackles, 4.5 TFL’s, two sacks, two forced fumbles, four QB hurries and five passes broken up.

Tennessee will be without two of its best defensive players in LB Darrin Kirkland and LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin. Kirkland had 66 tackles and three sacks last season, while Reeves-Maybin recorded a team-best 105 tackles, six sacks, eight TFL’s, four passes broken up and three QB hurries. Also, according to a Thursday night report from 247Sports, Hurd is “unlikely to play” due to an undisclosed injury. This will mean more touches for Kamara, who has rushed for 158 yards on the season. Kamara has more speed than Hurd but less size.

The ‘under’ is 3-1-1 overall for the Aggies, going 1-0-1 in their two home games at Kyle Field. They have seen their games average combined scores of 54.6 PPG.

he ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Tennessee with its games averaging combined scores of 56.0 PPG.

This is the first time these teams have met since A&M joined the SEC in 2012. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Alabama at Arkansas

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) listed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 49. The Razorbacks were +450 on the money line.

Nick Saban’s team has been a road favorite 36 times during his 10-year tenure, compiling a 21-15 spread record.

Alabama improved to 2-0 in SEC play with last week’s 34-6 win over Kentucky as a 37-point home ‘chalk.’ The 40 combined points fell ‘under’ the 54.5-point tally. True freshman QB Jalen Hurts hit 20-of-33 passes for 262 yards and two TDs without an interception. Joshua Jacobs, another true freshman, ran for a team-best 100 yards and one TD on 16 carries. Calvin Ridley produced 11 receptions for 174 yards and two TDs.

Hurts won the starting job with his solid play in a 52-6 season-opening win over Southern Cal at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. He left no doubt that he is the present and the future QB in Tuscaloosa when he sparked his team from a 24-3 deficit to an eventual 48-43 win at Ole Miss in Week 3. Hurts led the Crimson Tide with 146 rushing yards against the Rebels. He has completed 84-of-135 passes for 989 yards with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. Hurts has run for 276 yards and three TDs with a 5.1 YPC average.

Ridley might be the nation’s top WR. The true sophomore has hauled in 31 receptions for 398 yards and three TDs. He also has a rushing score to his credit. ArDarius Stewart was off to a flying start this year until sprained his knee in the second quarter of the win at Ole Miss. He has missed back-to-back games but is ‘probable’ to return against the Hogs. Stewart had four catches for 113 yards and two TDs in the blowout of USC. Then in a 38-10 win over Western Ky. in Week 2, he had five catches for 90 yards and one TD. O.J. Howard is one of the top tight ends in the country. He has 12 catches for 165 yards and one TD.

Damien Harris didn’t get many touches last week against UK because he was nursing an injury sustained in a 48-0 win over Kent St. Nevertheless, the true sophomore RB has rushed for a team-high 356 yards and one TD with a 8.5 YPC average. Jacobs has run for 250 yards and three TDs while averaging 7.4 YPC.

Alabama ranks eighth in the nation in total defense, third in rush defense and ninth in scoring (13.0 PPG). This stop unit is led by senior LB Rueben Foster, who has 35 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s, 0.5 sacks and a pair of QB hurries. Senior DE Jonathan Allen, who was a third-team All-American selection in 2015, has 22 tackles, four sacks, four QB hurries, one blocked kick and a 75-yard fumble return for a TD. Senior safety Eddie Jackson has 14 tackles. 1.5 TFL’s, two PBU and has scored TDs on a 55-yard pick-six and a punt return.

Arkansas (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) has wins vs. Louisiana Tech (21-20), at TCU (41-38 in double overtime), vs. Texas State (42-3) and vs. Alcorn State (52-10 in Little Rock). The Razorbacks took their only defeat against Texas A&M by a 45-24 count at Jerry World. However, the final score was extremely misleading. Bret Bielema’s bunch was stopped on a fourth-and-goal play when the game was tied at 17-17 late in the third quarter.

Arkansas bounced back from the loss to A&M to spank Alcorn St., but it failed to hook up its backers as a 50.5-point favorite. Austin Allen completed 13-of-18 passes for 206 yards and three TDs without an interception. Devwah Whaley rushed for a team-high 135 yards and one TD on just nine carries, while Rawleigh Williams ran for 126 yards on 13 attempts. Jared Cornelius had four catches for 106 yards and two TDs. Junior CB Henre Toliver had a 70-yard pick-six.

Allen has been outstanding in his first five starts since taking over the vacant starting QB position left behind by his older brother Brandon, who is now with the Jacksonville Jaguars. He took a beating from Texas A&M's pass rush but continued to play well the entire game. Allen has connected on 94-of-139 passes (67.6%) for 1,232 yards with a 12/2 TD-INT ratio. Williams has rushed for 559 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Whaley has run for 220 yards and one TD with a 6.7 YPC average.

Arkansas has a deep and talent group of WRs led by Keon Hatcher and Drew Morgan. Hatcher missed the Alcorn State game nursing a hamstring injury, but he was upgraded to ‘probable’ after practicing on Wednesday. Morgan has 28 receptions for 301 yards and one TD, while Hatcher has 14 grabs for 281 yards and three TDs. Jared Cornelius has 14 catches for 262 yards and four TDs, while TE Jeremy Sprinkle has caught 15 balls for 157 yards and three TDs. Sprinkle’s TD catch on a fourth-down play late in the fourth quarter lifted the Hogs past Louisana Tech in the opener.

Arkansas is 4-4 ATS with a pair of outright victories in eight games as a home underdog on Bielema’s watch. This is just the second time during Bielema’s tenure that the Hogs have been double-digit home ‘dogs. They took the cash in 2013 in a 45-33 loss to Texas A&M as 13.5-point puppies.

The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for the Hogs, cashing in all three of their home outings. Their games have averaged combined scores of 59.2 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 3-2 overall for ‘Bama after cashing in back-to-back games. The ‘over’ hit in its lone previous road assignment at Ole Miss.

ESPN will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Georgia has lost three in a row to South Carolina at Williams-Brice Stadium. This game has been postponed to Sunday with the time slot tentatively set for 2:30 p.m. Eastern. The game was off the board early Friday afternoon, but the Bulldogs were favored by seven with a total of 40.5 for most of the week.

Auburn is a 2.5-point favorite at Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prep for the Tigers, who are off a 58-7 home win over ULM. Dan Mullen’s team has won back-to-back games over AU and three of the last four. Most important for our purposes, MSU is 4-0 ATS in the last four encounters with Auburn. The ‘under’ is also on a 4-0 run in this rivalry and has hit in eight of the last 10.

Kentucky is a 3.5-point home favorite against Vanderbilt. UK is 8-5 ATS as a home favorite since Mark Stoops took over in 2013. Meanwhile, the Commodores are 7-5 ATS in 12 games as a road underdog on Derek Mason’s watch. Obviously, both coaches are in dire need of a win in terms of their job security.

With Cincinnati starting QB Hayden Moore ‘doubtful’ at UConn due to an ankle injury, Tommy Tuberville is going to give the starting nod to redshirt freshman Ross Trail. Gunner Kiel, the senior who left the Bearcats before last year’s bowl game and didn’t participate in spring practice due to personal reasons, was once the No. 1 ranked recruit in the nation. He was set to go to LSU, only to change his mind and register for classes at Notre Dame during the spring of his senior year of high school. Kiel never played for the Fighting Irish and eventually landed at Cincy. He threw 14 TD passes in his first four games with the Bearcats, but his hiatus from the team (understandably) caused him to fall out of favor with Tuberville. How about this quote from Tubs earlier this week: “I’m a Gunnier Kiel fan, but we play the best guy, that knows the offense, that’s ready to play.” When Tubs was asked if Kiel doesn’t know the offense, he replied, “He knows it, he’s getting better at it. He missed spring ball. Zach [Taylor, the first-year offensive coordinator] doesn’t know Gunner Kiel. He treats them all the same. It’s his offense. It’s football. Next best guy goes in. Gunner has had a good career here. Not great. He has thrown a lot of interceptions.” Damn!

Pitt is 1-6 ATS as a home favorite since Pat Narduzzi took over in 2015. The Panthers, who have seen the ‘over’ hit in each of their last four games, are 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Georgia Tech.

Washington State owns a 15-6 spread record in 21 games as a road underdog on Mike Leach’s watch. The Cougars are 7.5-point ‘dogs at Stanford.

Best Bets - Week 6
By Sportsbook.ag

Now that the LSU/Florida game this week has been cancelled because of Hurricane Matthew, voiding my best bet on Florida +3, it was time to go back to the drawing board for this week's college football card. There were a few other games featuring ranked teams that narrowly missed out on being on that first piece, so I'm turning to one of those games that comes from the Pac-12 for my alternate best bet this week.

Sportsbook.ag Odds: #5 Washington (-10) vs. Oregon (+10); Total set at 69

Washington jumped up to #5 in the polls this week thanks to their dominating performance over Stanford in primetime last week and now the Huskies are in the new role of maintaining that top tier spot the rest of the way. There is no denying how good Washington looked in dismantling Stanford, but that game was also at home and was built up to be a “game of the year” type contest by Washington all summer and leading up to it. For as good as they are, Washington isn't a program that's used to being the top dog and this week they've got to defend that status in a very tough place to play that's been a house of horrors for them this century.

Oregon isn't the powerhouse this year that we've seen in recent years and are coming off three straight defeats, the last of which was a 18-point defeat as a small favorite against the other school from the state of Washington. In fact, Oregon has yet to cash a spread on the closing number (0-4-1 ATS) and when you combine that with how good Washington has looked, it's no wonder that most of the early money has come Washington's way, moving the line up from it's opener of -8.

However, Eugene, Oregon is always a tough place to come in and get a win for a visiting team and while Oregon might not be as good as we've seen in the past, this team can still put up points with the best of them and that's always a plus for any underdog in college football betting. The Ducks are also 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Huskies and that includes a 6-0-1 ATS run at home. Autzen Stadium truly has been a house of horrors for this Washington program for a number of years, and even though many of the players weren't there for the bulk of those defeats, that type of domination still weighs on a program, especially when they are 0-10 SU at any venue against Oregon the past 10 years.

Furthermore, when you think about all the hype and emotion that went into Washington's big win over Stanford this week, it's tough to see the Huskies being anywhere near as sharp in this spot. Washington would love to get revenge for a 6-point home loss as -2.5 point favorites vs the Ducks last year – and more than likely will win this game outright – but asking them to go on the road in a place they've never done well in and win by double digits is a lot to ask.

We've seen before that when people get down on Oregon because of their inability to stop the opposition (like giving up 51 @ Washington State last week) and their offense having execution problems at times. Going up against this Washington defense will be the toughest test to date for Oregon, but with 32 or more points in all five of their games this year, don't sleep on the Ducks this week.

This is only the second true road game for the Huskies and their first one was a seven-point OT win @ Arizona two weeks ago as 16-point favorites. This game could end up playing out a lot like that contest did and while Washington should win this game, they won't cover the spread.

Take Oregon +10

Week 6 Pointspread Picks and Predictions
By Joe Fortenbaugh
Covers.com

If you haven’t done so already, get familiar with Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck, as the 35-year-old former NFL wide receiver is about to become one of the hottest coaching candidates in the entire country.

Fleck took a Broncos team that went 4-8 under Bill Cubit in 2012 and did this over the next four seasons:

2013: 1-11
2014: 8-5 with a bowl game loss
2015: 8-5 with a bowl game win
2016: 5-0

That’s right. Western Michigan is a perfect 5-0 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread this season thanks to an offense that is scoring an average of 44.8 points per game and a defense that is surrendering an average of just 18.6 points per game. Not only that, but Fleck has already engineered an upset of Northwestern (22-21 on September 3) and is just one week removed from hammering Central Michigan 49-10 as three-point favorites.

But this weekend’s matchup against Northern Illinois is a different story, as it’s time for Fleck and his Broncos to make a big statement. Western Michigan has dropped seven straight matchups against Northern Illinois, but can no doubt smell blood in the water as the one-time MAC power is off to a brutal 1-4 start and is now just 1-7 ATS over its last eight games overall.

In P.J. Fleck we trust.

Pick: Western Michigan -20

Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels

Spread: North Carolina -1.5

This game will be won in the second half due to two key reasons: First, North Carolina has expelled an abundance of energy over the last two weeks in wins over Pittsburgh and Florida State. While hosting Pittsburgh on September 24, the Tar Heels scored two frantic touchdowns over the game’s final 5:24 to defeat the Panthers 37-36 in an instant classic. The following Saturday in Tallahassee the Tar Heels were at it again thanks to a last second 54-yard field goal en route to a 37-35 upset victory as 10.5-point favorites.

So the big question here is how much gas does North Carolina have left in the tank?

Expect the Tar Heel defense to wear down late on Saturday against a Virginia Tech team that is coming off a bye and is 4-1 ATS over its last five conference games and 4-1 ATS over its last five showdowns with the Tar Heels that have taken place in North Carolina.

In addition, take note that the road team is 7-3 ATS over the last 10 meetings between these two programs.

Pick: Virginia Tech +1.5

Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes

Spread: Ohio State -28.5

Almost too quietly, the Hoosiers have put together a 3-1 straight-up record with victories over Florida International, Ball State and, most notably, Michigan State last Saturday via a 24-21 upset as five-point underdogs. Not only that, but don’t forget about the fact that Indiana took Ohio State down to the wire last October before ultimately falling short 34-27.

But another key aspect of this matchup that you have to keep in mind revolves around the Ohio State schedule, as the Buckeyes have a tricky travel date at Wisconsin on deck. Yeah, that’s the same Wisconsin team that will be out for revenge against Ohio State this season after getting shellacked to the tune of a 59-0 blowout defeat when these two programs met last December.

Back to Indiana, the Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS over their last four conference games and 5-0 ATS over their last five showdowns with Ohio State. Four touchdowns should be more than enough cushion for head coach Kevin Wilson and his troops.

Pick: Indiana +28.5

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats

Total: 68

The last five meetings between the Red Raiders and Wildcats have seen an average of 77.2 points per game scored, with only one of those encounters (2014) dipping below 75 total points.

Expect more of the same Saturday in Manhattan.

Texas Tech is averaging a staggering 59.5 points per game so far in 2016 while posting at least 55 points in every single outing. Kansas State is no slouch either when it comes to the end zone, as Bill Snyder’s Wildcats are averaging a total of 38.0 points per contest over their last three games.

In addition, note that the over is 13-5 in Texas Tech’s last 18 games overall and 43-17 in Kansas State’s last 60 outings when coming off a loss.

Oh, and by the way, the over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these two programs.

Pick: Over 68

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet
By Covers.com

Texas Longhorns vs No. 22 Oklahoma Sooners (-11.5, 73)

* After the Longhorns gave up 49 points against Oklahoma State last week -- the third time in four games that the Longhorns have surrendered 47 or more points this season -- Strong decided to demote defensive coordinator Vance Bedford and will take over control of the defense. The offense, under first-year offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert, has been clicking, averaging 41.2 points and is led by running back D’Onta Foreman, who is second in the nation with his average of 145.3 rushing yards per game, and the quarterback duo of freshman Shane Buechele and senior Tyrone Swoopes, who have combined for 14 total touchdowns. Linebacker Anthony Wheeler leads the team in tackles (31) while five players are tied for the team lead in sacks with two including linebacker Breckyn Hager who is also tied for second on the team in tackles with 23.

*The Sooners bounced back from an embarrassing 45-24 loss to Ohio State to edge TCU, 52-46, last Saturday. Quarterback Baker Mayfield, who finished fourth in Heisman Trophy balloting a year ago, led the way, completing 23-of-30 passes for 274 yards and two touchdowns and also rushing for 55 yards and two more TDs. Joe Mixon (105 yards, 1 TD) and Samaje Perine (98 yards, 2 TDs) paced a strong ground game in the win over the Horned Frogs while linebackers Jordan Evans (10 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss) and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (6 tackles, 2 sacks) led the way defensively.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as 10-point home favorites and the line rose throughout the week to sit at the current number of -11.5. The total opened at 74 and came down a full point to 73 by Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Longhorns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
* Sooners are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
* Under is 8-1 in Longhorns last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Sooners last 4 neutral site games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma.

No. 5 Houston Cougars at Navy Midshipmen (+17, 50.5)

* The Cougars have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing and are allowing 42 rushing yards and 11.2 points. Ward (1,325 passing yards with eight TDs and 178 rushing yards with five TDs in four games) has plenty of options in the passing game with four Cougars - led by Linell Bonner's 33 catches for 439 yards - with at least 19 receptions. Duke Catalon (225 rushing yards in three games) is expected to return for the Cougars, who have outscored their opponents 221-56 during their win streak to start the season.

* Quarterback Will Worth (527 passing yards with one TD and 173 rushing yards with five TDs) led Navy to two comeback wins after taking over for injured Tago Smith in the opener. Fullback Chris High leads the Midshipmen with 295 rushing yards, but Navy was held to 57 on the ground in last week's loss to Air Force. Micah Thomas has 32 tackles and two pass breakups to lead a defense that allows 20.5 points and 377.2 yards.

LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as big 18-point road favorites and the line was quickly adjusted down slightly to 17 - where it has remained all week. The total hit the board at 53 and took a sharp drop down to 50.5 late in the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Midshipmen are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 6-1 in Midshipmen last 7 games on fieldturf.

No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 57)

* The Vols’ status as a comeback team hit a crescendo with last week’s miraculous 34-31 win at Georgia, as Jauan Jennings pulled down a 43-yard Hail Mary pass as time expired to keep Tennessee undefeated. The offense has been able to come up with big plays when needed, with quarterback Joshua Dobbs accounting for 18 touchdowns (13 passing, five rushing). While far from dominant, Tennessee’s defense has forced 10 turnovers - including two or more in three of its five contests - but again will be without injured linebackers Jalen Reeves-Maybin (shoulder) and Darrin Kirkland Jr. (ankle).

* The Aggies boast the SEC’s most efficient offense, averaging a league-best 521 total yards per game with quarterback Trevor Knight leading the charge. Knight and freshman running back Trayveon Williams guide a running game that averages 258.6 yards and has gained at least 200 in every contest this season. The Aggies' defense has been disruptive in opponents’ backfields, leading the nation with 50 tackles for losses – 17 more than any other team in the SEC – as star defensive end Myles Garrett has accounted for five along with three sacks.

LINE HISTORY: The Aggies opened as 6.5-point favorites and the spread was quickly bumped up to -7 - where it has remained all week. The total opened at 56, went as low as 54.5 on Wednesday, and then rose back up to 57 by Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Volunteers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Aggies last 10 games overall.

Virginia Tech Hokies at No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5, 58)

* The Hokies start a critical stretch to their season with four of the next five on the road, but they appear to be improving in all phases since the loss to Tennessee. Evans has passed for 907 yards while running for another 209 and has a prime target to look for in junior Isaiah Ford, who boasts 24 receptions and 376 yards to go along with four touchdowns. The defense came up with six sacks last time out in a 54-17 win over East Carolina and the Hokies have forced 30 opponent drives to go three-and-out (or less) this season.

* Trubisky has completed 76 percent of his passes to lead the nation while tossing 13 touchdowns and avoiding an interception for his last 240 attempts, dating back to 2014. One of the advantages the junior has is a stable of experienced receivers, led by senior Ryan Switzer (47 catches, 587 yards). If Virginia Tech can limit the Tar Heels’ passing game, there is still a ground attack for them to turn to with junior Elijah Hood (338 yards, four TDs) and senior T.J. Logan (258, five rushing TDs, two receiving scores).

LINE HISTORY: The Tar Heels opened as 3-point home favorites and by Friday afternoon that line was all of the way down to -1.5. The total started the week at 62 and dropped steadily all week to sit at 58. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Hokies last 16 games in October.
* Over is 8-1 in Tar Heels last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Indiana Hoosiers at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-28, 59)

* The Hoosiers have received superb play from Ricky Jones, who has 13 catches for 332 yards and a score over the last two weeks. Richard Lagow recovered from a five-interception effort against Wake Forest to play better against the Spartans, while relying on Devine Redding (19 carries, 100 yards), who has reached the century mark in three of the four games this year. Linebackers Tegray Scales and Marcus Oliver combined for 20 tackles against Michigan State and need to be on top of their game against a Buckeyes squad averaging 52.3 points over its last six outings.

* Even though the Buckeyes return only six starters from last season, one of them is quarterback J.T. Barrett, who became the school's all-time leader in touchdown passes (59) last week in a 58-0 rout of Rutgers. Barrett has 14 TD passes, three TD runs and only two interceptions this season, while his top three running backs are all averaging at least 7.2 yards per carry. On the defensive side of the ball, the Buckeyes allowed 33 passing yards last week, did not yield a rushing touchdown for the fourth straight game, and improved their season turnover margin to plus-8.

LINE HISTORY: Oihio State opened the betting week as massive 31-point home faves and that spread was bet down a bit throughout the week - the current number is -28. The total began at 61.5 and has fallen down to 59 by Friday afternoon. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
* Buckeyes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 road games.
* Under is 12-3 in Buckeyes last 15 games on fieldturf.

No. 23 Colorado Buffaloes at Southern California Trojans (-4.5, 63.5)

* Despite their newfound success, the Buffaloes are dealing with a quarterback dilemma as redshirt freshman backup Steven Montez has rolled up 789 yards of total offense and accounted for seven touchdowns the last two weeks in place of Sefo Liufau, the senior who’s been sidelined with an ankle sprain suffered Sept. 17 against Michigan. Liufau, though, has steadily been ramping up his practice workload, and MacIntyre said he expects it to come down to a game-time decision Saturday. Not to be overlooked, though, is Colorado’s marked defensive improvement as the Buffaloes lead the conference in total (290.4 yards allowed per game) and passing defense (150.4 yards) on the strength of an experienced secondary featuring safety Tedric Thompson (team-most seven passes defended, two interceptions).

* The Trojans have had their own freshman step up at quarterback the last two weeks in Sam Darnold, who’s 41-of-59 passing for 605 yards and three TDs while adding a pair of rushing scores. Darnold, who replaced junior Max Browne after three games, has gotten wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster back involved after a sluggish start, and the two connected seven times for 123 yards and three TDs against Arizona State. The Trojans also stepped it up defensively against the Sun Devils, allowing only 75 rushing yards on 33 attempts and keeping the visitors out of the end zone for the game’s first 51 minutes.

LINE HISTORY: USC opened the betting week at -4.5, were bet up to -5.5 by midweek, and returned to the opening number of -4.5 by Friday afternoon. The total opened at 60.5 and rose sharply to sit at 63.5 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buffaloes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Trojans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Under is 5-1 in Buffaloes last 6 conference games.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 25 Western Michigan Broncos (-20, 66)

* Senior quarterback Anthony Maddie made his first start a winning one, completing 26-of-41 passes for 298 yards with two touchdowns and an interception versus Ball State after getting the job when No. 1 Drew Hare injured his hamstring and No. 2 Ryan Graham was ineffective. Senior wide receiver Kenny Golladay caught 13 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns last week and is among the national leaders in receiving TDs (tied for fourth with six), overall TDs (tied for fifth with eight), receiving yards (ninth with 556) and receptions per game (10th, 7.4). Senior linebacker Sean Folliard was named MAC West Defensive Player of the Week after recording 17 tackles (11 solo) versus Ball State and leads the Huskies with 22 solo tackles.

* The Broncos are the only team in the nation without a turnover and the ball protection starts with senior quarterback Zach Terrell, who completes 69.7 percent of his 119 passes (12 touchdowns) for 212.6 yards per game. Senior wide receiver Corey Davis, the MAC West Offensive Player of the Week after recording 72 yards and two touchdowns versus Central Michigan, is tied with Greg Jennings for most receiving TDs in school history with 39 and is the all-time MAC receiving yards leader with 4,252. Junior linebacker Robert Spillane paces the team with 43 tackles and 25 solo while sophomore defensive lineman Eric Assoua and senior defensive end Keion Adams share the sack lead with 3.5 apiece after combining for three of Western Michigan's eight last week.

LINE HISTORY: Western Michigan opened as 18.5-point home favorites and by the end of the week that line was bet all of that way up to -20. The total began at 63.5 and rose sharply up to 66. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Broncos are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Huskies are 15-3-1 ATS in their last 19 meetings.

No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (+14, 49)

* Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts (989 passing yards, seven touchdowns) is fully entrenched as the starter and that led to the recent transfer announcement from redshirt freshman Blake Barnett, who opened the season as the Crimson Tide starter. Sophomore receiver Calvin Ridley is performing well with 31 receptions for 398 yards and three touchdowns and junior wideout ArDarius Stewart could return after missing two straight games due to a knee injury. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen has been superb with four sacks on a star-studded defense that includes senior safety Eddie Jackson (nine career interceptions) and senior weak-side linebacker Reuben Foster (team-best 35 tackles).

* Junior quarterback Austin Allen has played solid football while passing for 1,232 yards and 12 touchdowns against two interceptions. Sophomore running back Rawleigh Williams III has 559 yards and four touchdowns and junior wideout Jared Cornelius (14 receptions, 262 yards) has provided a boost with back-to-back 100-yard receiving outings. Sophomore weak-side linebacker Dre Greenlaw (35 tackles) and senior middle linebacker Brooks Ellis (34 tackles) lead the defense and senior defensive end Deatrich Wise has recorded three sacks.

LINE HISTORY: The Alabama Crimson Tide opened as 13.5-point road favorites and throughout the week that line was bumped up to 14. The total hit the board at 50.5 and by Friday afternoon it was down to 49. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 8-0 in Crimson Tide last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Razorbacks last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

No. 4 Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+29.5, 53)

* Left tackle Grant Newsome suffered a season-ending knee injury against the Badgers and was replaced by Juwan Bushell-Beatty, who is likely to get the start on Saturday. Kenny Allen, who made 18-of-22 field goals last year, missed two more attempts to bring his season total to 4-of-8 - prompting Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh to declare there will be a "kicking competition in practice" this week. Dark-horse Heisman candidate Jabrill Peppers, who led Paramus Catholic High School to two state championships, will play in New Jersey for the first time after missing Michigan's trip to Piscataway with a leg injury in 2014.

* Chris Laviano continues to struggle as he was limited to 3-of-12 passing for 33 yards while backup quarterback Tylin Odin misfired on all four of his pass attempts in the loss to Ohio State. Tyreek Maddox-Williams led the Scarlet Knights' defense with a career-high 11 tackles while Kiy Hester and Deonte Roberts added 10 tackles apiece against the Buckeyes. Cornerback Ross Douglas, who graduated from Michigan in the summer and transferred to Rutgers with two years of eligibility remaining, returned last week after missing two games with a leg injury and hopes to make some plays against his former team.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened the week as 26-point road dogs. It appears that opening number wasn't high enough for Wolverines backers and the line was steadily bumped up all week to sit at 29.5 on Friday afternoon. The total opened at 54 and dropped a full point to sit at 53. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Scarlet Knights are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Over is 12-1 in Wolverines last 13 games overall.
* Over is 6-1 in Scarlet Knights last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

No. 6 Washington Huskies at Oregon Ducks (+9, 68.5)

* Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has been superb and ranks third in the nation with 17 touchdown passes while completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 1,114 yards. The productive skill players include two productive tailbacks in sophomore Myles Gaskin (402 yards) and junior Lavon Coleman (335 yards, 8.2 average) and two solid receivers in junior John Ross (21 receptions for 277 yards and six touchdowns) and sophomore Chico McClatcher (16 catches for 313 yards and four scores). The Huskies have racked up 21 sacks with senior outside linebackers Psalm Wooching (4 1/2) and Joe Mathis (four) at the front of the charge and also lead the nation in fumble recoveries (11) and takeaways (15).

* The Ducks are considering switching quarterbacks with Justin Herbert replacing senior Dakota Prukop, and such a move would make Herbert the first true freshman to start at the position for Oregon since future NFL quarterback Chris Miller in 1983. The timing of the possible move seems odd with Oregon averaging 40 points behind Prukop (1,173 yards, eight touchdowns) and junior running back Royce Freeman (463 rushing yards, seven touchdowns) and about to face the nation's sixth-ranked squad. The defense is allowing 36.2 points and 490.4 yards per game and was punished for 280 rushing yards by typically pass-happy Washington State in the latest defeat.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 8-point road favorites and by Monday that line was bumped up to 9. The adjusted point spread of 9 held steady all week. The total opened at 69.5 and came down a full point to 68.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
* Ducks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 conference games.
* Favorite is 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

No. 21 Florida State Seminoles at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (-3, 64.5)

* The Seminoles have plenty of offensive firepower led by Cook, who has rushed for 407 yards in the last two games, and red-shirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois (264.7 yards per game), who has exhibited poise and the ability to make plays with both his arm and his legs. His targets include Cook (19 receptions, 15.1 yards per catch) out of the backfield and speedy wide receivers Jesus Wilson (22, 15.5) and Travis Rudolph (17, 14.3). The top performers for the struggling defense, which sorely has missed defensive back Derwin James (torn meniscus), have been linebacker Matthew Thomas (30 tackles) and defensive ends DeMarcus Walker (6.5 sacks) and Brian Burns (four).

* While Kaaya - who recorded 405 yards passing in last year's loss to the Seminoles - remains the key to Miami's offense, coach Mark Richt is employing a more balanced approach this season (241.8 yards passing, 232.5 rushing) that has left opposing defenses guessing. Running backs Mark Walton (445 yards, 7.1 yards per carry versus 3.5 in 2015) and backup Joe Yearby (323, 7.3 versus 4.9) also have benefited from an improved offensive line. Although the defense gave up more rushing yards last week against Georgia Tech (267) than it had allowed in its first three games combined, it held the Yellow Jackets to three third-down conversions on 12 attempts and produced two touchdowns as freshman linebackers Shaquille Quarterman and Michael Pinckney returned fumbles for scores.

LINE HISTORY: Miami opened as 2-point home favorites over their in-state rivals from Florida State. The spread was bumped up to -3 almost immediately and has held steady all week. The total opened at 65 and on Friday afternoon was sitting at 64.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Seminoles last 8 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Underdog is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Arizona Wildcats at No. 24 Utah Utes (-9.5, 53)

* Rodriguez won’t announce his starting quarterback until game-time as injuries have sidelined starter Anu Solomon (knee) and backup Brandon Dawkins (ribs) in recent weeks and forced Rodriguez to burn the redshirt off highly touted true freshman Khalil Tate in last week’s loss to the Bruins in the Rose Bowl. Things aren’t much better at running back where starter Nick Wilson is battling a high ankle sprain and things got so dire that slot receiver Tyrell Johnson moved to running back last week and led the team with 77 yards on 16 carries. The defense has also been ravaged by injuries – Rodriguez says there are 28 players, including 18 starters on his injury list this week – and is led by sophomore safety Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, who has a team-high 27 tackles and two interceptions.

* The Utes definitely miss two-time All-Pac-12 running back Devontae Booker and have not had a 100-yard rusher yet in the first five games of the season. True freshman Zack Moss is averaging 77.2 yards per game and splits time with sophomore Armand Shyne who is averaging 68 yards per game while junior quarterback Troy Williams is averaging 268 yards per game passing and has six completions of 40 yards or longer. The defense, a Whittingham trademark, ranks second in the Pac-12 against the run (117.4 yards per game) and is led by junior defensive tackle Lowell Lotulelei, considered a likely first round NFL Draft pick next spring, and end Hunter Dimick, who has a team-best five sacks.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened the betting week as 9.5-point home favorites and, despite a brief wobble up to -10, on Friday afternoon the spread was still at that opening number. The total hit the board at 53 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 9-0 in Wildcats last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-1 in Utes last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Washington State Cougars at No. 15 Stanford Cardinal (-7, 58.5)

* The Cougars are more balanced than ever but still rely heavily on quarterback Luke Falk, who ranks fourth nationally in passing at 373.8 yards per game and was 36-of-48 passing for 371 yards without an interception against Oregon. The running game has been bolstered by the development of offensive linemen Riley Sorenson, Eduardo Middleton, Cole Madison, Andre Dillard and Cody O’Connell, a first-year starter. Senior wide receiver Gabe Marks had a touchdown reception in last season’s 30-28 loss to the Cardinal and ranks sixth nationally with nine catches per game.

* Junior running back Christian McCaffrey looks to regain his standing in the Heisman Trophy race after recording a season-low 12 carries for 49 yards last week against the Huskies. Quarterback Ryan Burns struggled last week under constant pressure and needs more support from wide receivers Trent Irwin and Michael Rector along with tight end Dalton Schultz, who has just six receptions this season. In addition to its two starting cornerbacks, the team’s lengthy injury list includes right tackle Casey Tucker, wide receiver Francis Owusu and fullback Daniel Marx.

LINE HISTORY: Stanford opened the betting week as 8.5-point home favorites and by Friday afternoon that line was all of the way down to -7. The total opened at 57 and was bumped up to 58.5 late in the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 8-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cardinal are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.