College Football Betting News and Notes Week 9

Pac 12 Notebook
By Matt Fargo
VegasInsider.com

Week Eight Rewind

Blowout City!

Every game that featured Pac 12 teams ended up being horribly non-competitive. The smallest margin of victory was USC's 14-point non-conference win at Notre Dame.

Even worse, the five conference games were decided by 36, 43, 24, 44 and 23 points. Good times.

Action got underway Thursday with Arizona blowing away UCLA 48-12. After the Bruins closed the gap to 14-7 in the first quarter, Arizona ran off 34 unanswered points to run away with the game. The Wildcats outgained UCLA 573-323 and they had their best rushing performance of the season with 254 yards, easily eclipsing their previous best of 129 yards.

Oregon scored touchdowns on its first four possessions, all in the first quarter as it dominated the Buffaloes 45-2. The Ducks racked up 527 total yards including 371 yards rushing on 48 carries (7.7 ypc). They have rushed for at least 327 yards in each of their last five games. Colorado avoided its first home shutout since 1986 with a third quarter safety.

The first quarter featured two punts by each team but then California erupted for 20 second quarter points and eventually built a 34-0 lead before the Utes scored their 10 points in garbage time. The Golden Bears held Utah to just 178 total yards including 13 yards rushing. The Utes had only 58 total yards through three quarters.

USC outgained Notre Dame 443-267 and the Irish hurt themselves with three turnovers. Notre Dame was trailing 17-10 and was driving for the game-tying touchdown but fumbled and the Trojans returned it 80 yards for a touchdown. The Irish again fought back and down a touchdown, fumbled at their own 18 and USC punched it in.

Stanford rolled again to improve to a perfect 7-0 ATS as it rushed for a school record 446 yards on 44 carries (10.1 ypc). After Washington cut the lead to 17-14 in the second quarter, the Cardinal scored on a 70-yard run on the very next play to start of a run of 31 unanswered points. Stanford has won 15 straight games and has not trailed this season.

Last and certainly least, the Beavers went into Seattle and destroyed the Cougars by 23 points. Oregon State won the yardage battle 551-315 and scored on eight of its first nine possessions. Washington State tied the game at 14 apiece early in the second quarter but the Beavers ran off 20 unanswered points to pull away.

Brewhaha

Not only was the Thursday game between UCLA and Arizona an ugly matchup, it got uglier right before halftime.

A streaker came onto the field with four seconds remaining in the first half which caused a delay in the game and that gave enough time for Bruins wide receiver Taylor Embree and Arizona cornerback Shaquille Richardson to start fighting. The benches cleared and a melee ensued.

Order was eventually restored but both teams will suffer the consequences.

Along with Embree, UCLA has lost receivers Randall Carroll, Ricky Marvay and Shaqelle Evans for this week's game against California. The good news is that the two top receivers were not lost but depth will be an issue.

Defensive tackle Cassius Marsh was suspended two games.

For Arizona, Richardson and fellow cornerback Jourdon Grandon were suspended for this week's game at Washington while cornerbacks Mark Watley and Lyle Brown will have to sit out the first half.

The Seat is Getting Hotter

Speaking of UCLA, guess who is back on the hot seat?

Not only did Rick Neuheisel lose badly against Arizona, he lost his team during the fight that took place against the Wildcats.

"It's definitely a step in the wrong direction," Neuheisel said. "I still hold out my feeling we can and will turn the corner."

Good luck Rick.

The ugly loss to Oregon St. did not help matters for Washington St. head coach Paul Wulff. He posted a 5-32 record in his first three years but the season started well this year as the Cougars opened 3-1 but they have dropped three straight, the last two by a combined 53 points.

You can make it four straight losses after this weekend as they head to Eugene as five-touchdown underdogs to the Ducks.

Game of the Week

Stanford passed a small test at home against Washington and now it gets tougher with a trip to USC this weekend. The Cardinal have won 15 straight games since losing at Oregon last year and with the way the Trojans looked at Notre Dame last week, this is certainly no gimmie.

Stanford moved from No. 8 to No. 6 in the BCS Standings and this would be its first real signature win of the season which would help improve that ranking even more. The Cardinal have won the last two meetings against USC including a 34-point drubbing the last time they played in Southern California two years ago.

Stanford is a 7.5-point favorite at most sports books.

Games to Watch - Week 9
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Michigan State vs. Nebraska

As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Nebraska installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 49 ½. The Spartans are plus-155 on the money line. Mark Dantonio's team has won four in a row both SU and ATS, including last week's 37-31 win over previously-unbeaten Wisconsin on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Senior QB Kirk Cousins threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns without being intercepted. For the season, Cousins has an 11/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. Nebraska came off its open date to trash Minnesota 41-14 last week. The Cornhuskers are unbeaten in four home games, but they are 0-4 ATS in those four contests. On Bo Pelini's watch since 2008, Nebraska has a 9-15 ATS record in 24 games as a home 'chalk.' As a road underdog during Dantonio's five-year tenure, MSU owns a 6-5 spread record. The 'over' is 4-3 overall for Nebraska this year, 3-1 in its home games. As for the Spartans, they have seen the 'under' go 5-2 overall, 2-0 in its road assignments. Since 1995, these schools have met three times with Nebraska winning each meeting by a combined score of 122-27.

Oklahoma vs. Kansas State

As of Wednesday, most books were listing Oklahoma as a 13½-point favorite with a total of 58½. Bob Stoops' team is looking to bounce back from a stunning 41-38 loss to Texas Tech as a 29-point home favorite. Landry Jones threw five TD passes, but the Sooners allowed 572 yards of total offense to the Red Raiders. Kansas St. is one of the nation's biggest surprises, racing out to a 7-0 record while hooking up its backers at a 6-1 ATS clip. The Wildcats have been getting stellar play from junior QB Collin Klein, who has rushed for four TDs and threw for another in last week's 59-21 win at Kansas. Klein has rushed for 14 TDs and has an 8/3 TD-INT ratio. K-St. owns an 8-3 spread record in its last 11 home 'dog situations under Bill Snyder (spanning two separate terms). Since he took back over in 2009, the Wildcats have won outright in five of eight home 'dog spots. OU has won four in a row over K-St., but the Wildcats are 4-2 versus the number in the last six head-to-head meetings.

Florida vs. Georgia

Florida vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville) - As of Wednesday, most spots had Georgia listed as a three-point 'chalk' with a total of 49. Florida has won 18 of the last 21 head-to-head meetings dating back to Steve Spurrier's arrival at UF in 1990. Will Muschamp was on the losing end of four of those games when he played at UGA. Muschamp's first UF team has lost three in a row both SU and ATS, and it is in dire need to get back senior QB John Brantley, who hasn't played since the loss to Alabama. Brantley and RB Jeff Demps are both listed as 'probable' vs. UGA. Mark Richt's team has won five straight, going 4-1 ATS, since losing its first two games to Boise St. and South Carolina. The Dawgs won a 33-28 decision at Vandy their last time out, but the Commodores blocked a punt in the final minute that nearly led to a miraculous comeback win. Georgia QB Aaron Murray has a 16/7 TD-INT ratio. The 'over' has hit in four straight games between these bitter rivals.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State

Baylor at Oklahoma State - As of Wednesday, most books had Oklahoma St. listed as a 13½-point favorite with a total of 79 (highest in CFB all year!). Baylor has 5/1 odds to win outright at the Las Vegas Hilton. Mike Gundy's squad easily ended Missouri's 10-game winning streak at home by blasting the Tigers 45-24 last week. Brandon Weeden threw for 338 yards and three TDs, while Joseph Randle rushed for 138 yards and three scores. Baylor had an open date after losing 55-28 at Texas A&M. The Bears, who are 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road, are led by QB Robert Griffin III, who has 22 TD passes and only two interceptions. They are 8-6 ATS as road 'dogs under Art Briles. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 for Baylor this year, while OSU has seen the 'over' go 3-3-1 overall, 2-1 in its home outings. OSU has won the last five head-to-head meetings both SU and ATS.

Illinois vs. Penn State

Illinois at Penn State - Most spots are listing PSU as a five-point 'chalk' with a total of 40½. The Nittany Lions have won six in a row since suffering their lone loss of the year vs. Alabama. They are off a 34-24 win at Northwestern as 4½-point favorites. Silas Redd was the catalyst with 164 rushing yards and one TD on just 18 carries. QB Matt McGloin threw a pair of TD passes without an interception. Illinois has dropped back-to-back games since starting 6-0. The Illini are in the midst of a 1-4 ATS slide, but it is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a road 'dog under Ron Zook. PSU has watched the 'under' go 6-1-1 overall this year, while Illinois has seen the 'under' go 5-3. The 'over' has hit in four straight games between these Big Ten rivals. When these schools met last year, the Illini cruised to a 33-13 win as a nine-point underdog.

Wisconsin vs. Ohio State

Wisconsin at Ohio State - Wisconsin had better shake off its first loss fast with this trip to The Shoe looming. Most books have the Badgers installed as seven-point favorites with a total of 50½. The Buckeyes are plus-235 on the money line. They are 2-2 ATS in four home underdog situations dating back to 2001. Ohio St. has had two weeks to prep for this game after beating previously-unbeaten Illinois by a 17-7 count as a three-point underdog. Wisconsin is 8-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Brett Bielema. The 'over' is 5-2 overall for the Badgers, but the 'under' is 5-2 for the Bucks. Wisconsin beat OSU 31-18 as a 3½-point home underdog in last year's encounter.

Big 10 Report - Week 9
By ASAWins.com

Nebraska (-4) vs. Michigan State

NEB: 6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: at Minnesota, W 41-14
MSU: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Wisconsin, W 37-31

This is arguably the Big Ten Game of the Year in the Legends Division. The winner has the inside track to play in the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis. This was already a huge game for the Huskers as they won't want to lose to the two top teams in the Big Ten in their inaugural season as a member (already blown out by Wisconsin). It's an extremely tough situation for the Spartans, as they have to bounce back after last week's huge win and play in a hostile environment.

Michigan State delivered a win last week that will be shown in highlights for the next 50 years. With the score tied 31-31, MSU completed a Hail Mary pass as time expired to beat 6th ranked Wisconsin. The Spartans were actually outgained by the Badgers, but made big plays when it mattered. They blocked a punt for touchdown, blocked a field goal, forced a safety, and scored on a double-reverse. QB Cousins played his best game of the season, completing 22-of-31 passes for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Nebraska made quick work of Minnesota last week, rolling to a 34-0 halftime lead. The Huskers were able to cruise to an easy 41-14 win behind 515 total yards and 27 first downs. They recorded a defensive touchdown while holding the Gophers to just 254 yards and 11 first downs. It's hard to determine how strong a team is after dismantling the last place team in the Big Ten, but Nebraska certainly has some momentum as it returns home to face the Spartans after back to back wins over Ohio State and Minnesota (with a bye in between).

Michigan State is 8th in the nation in rush defense (89 YPG), but was torched for 220 yards (5.4) last week against Wisconsin. Nebraska is 7th nationally in rush offense, averaging 261YPG. Nebraska may be able to run the ball with success against MSU, but the main key here will be the passing game behind QB Martinez. Martinez is completing just 55% for 168 YPG with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.

Something to consider: MSU head coach Mark Dantonio is just 1-6 straight up in road/neutral games vs. ranked teams. Nebraska is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 home games.

Ohio State (+7) vs. Wisconsin

OSU: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: BYE
WISC: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan State, L 31-37

This is not a good situation for the Badgers. Wisconsin must bounce back from a heartbreaking last second loss to Michigan State last week - a loss that eliminates them from National Championship contention and likely takes QB Wilson out of the Heisman running. To make matters worse, it will be their second-consecutive road night game in Columbus for OSU's homecoming. And the Buckeyes are off of a bye week and want revenge after Wisconsin upset then-#1 OSU last season (only defeat of the 2010 season).

The Badgers actually outplayed the Spartans last week, but let their guard down for 4-5 plays that turned the game in MSU's favor. Wisconsin had more yards and more first downs, but had a punt blocked (for touchdown), a field goal blocked, was forced into a safety, and allowed a Hail Mary touchdown. Wisco boasts the 8th best offense (511 YPG) in the nation, 5th scoring offense (47.4 PPG), 9th total defense (287 YPG allowed), and 6th scoring defense (13.6 PPG allowed).

Over the last five games, Ohio State QB's have completed just 30-of-79 passes (38%) for 83 YPG with five touchdowns and three interceptions (including just one completion in a 17-7 win over Illinois on Oct. 15). OSU's offense ranks 110th nationally in yards per game and 88th in scoring offense. The Buckeyes have remained competitive with a strong defense, but we're going out on a limb here and saying that OSU will need competent QB play to upset the Badgers on Saturday.

Ohio State already has as many losses this season as it had in 2009 & 2010 combined. The Buckeyes are off of a much-needed bye week and healthy for this season-defining game. A win here would put OSU in the mix in the Leaders division title and give them a ton of momentum for a favorable schedule ahead.

Something to consider: Ohio State has been a Big Ten home underdog just three times in the past 10 years. You'd have to go back to 1992 for the last time Ohio State was a touchdown-or-more underdog at home.

Penn State (-4.5) vs. Illinois

PSU: 7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS - Last week: at Northwestern, W 34-24
ILL: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS - Last week: at Purdue, L 14-21

After PSU's loss to #2 Alabama back on September 10th, everyone all but dismissed the Nittany Lions and their Big Ten title hopes. But here we are in the last week of October and Penn State is alone in first place of the Leaders division with a 4-0 conference mark. It's not always pretty, but the Lions simply continue to win games (five of their six straight wins have been by 10-points or less). A win here would give PSU seven-straight wins heading into its bye week.

This PSU stop-unit is as good as it gets. PSU is limiting its opponents to just 282 yards per game (8th nationally) and 13 points per game (5th) despite the early season loss of standout LB Mauti. The emergence of QB McGloin and RB Redd has greatly helped this struggling offense. McGloin has passed for seven touchdowns and just two picks over the last five games and Redd has rushed for 566 yards in four Big Ten games (142 YPG and 5.5 YPC) after just 303 rush yards in four non-conference games.

Illinois has dropped two straight games after a strong 6-0 start. The offense has failed to put up points in six of the last eight quarters (shutout in the first three quarters of back-to-back games). They've put up just 326 YPG and 21 total points in those two losses after averaging 448 YPG and 35 points per game in the first six games of the season.

Something to consider: Illinois won 33-13 at Penn State last year for its first ever win in State College. Prior to last year, Illinois was 0-6 in Happy Valley with the average margin of defeat of 16 PPG. They are 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings but just 3-11 straight up since 1993.

Michigan (-13) vs. Purdue

MICH: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
PUR: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS - Last week: vs. Illinois, W 21-14

Purdue has followed up every win with a loss this season and the Boilers will try to avoid that streak as they head into Ann Arbor after a breakthrough win over Illinois last week. The Wolverines are off of a bye week will try to avoid the 2nd half slide that has happened over each of the last two seasons. They started 4-0 in 2009 and 5-0 in 2010 before finishing both seasons a combined 3-13 (started 6-0 this season before last week's loss).

Defensively the Wolverines have respectable statistics and rankings, but this unit has struggled against the three best offenses it has faced. Against MSU, Notre Dame, and Northwestern the Wolverines have allowed 28 PPG, 173 rush YPG, and 428 total YPG (allowing 5 PPG, 124 rush YPG, and 267 total YPG against four other teams). Purdue's offense is improving, but isn't on par with the top half of the Big Ten.

Michigan was averaging 458 YPG and 38 PPG before managing just 250 yards and 14 points against MSU. QB Robinson totaled just 165 total yards (had been averaging 308 YPG). Robinson leads the Big Ten in rushing, but is also tops in interceptions and has had to leave in each of the last two games with injuries. Purdue is respectable on defense (40th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed) and saw some success against Robinson last season. The Boilers held him to just 176 passing yards and 68 rush yards (3.1 YPC) and forced four turnovers (2 interceptions and 2 fumbles).

Something to consider: Purdue won the last time here in 2009 to end an 18-game losing streak at the Big House. They've now covered three straight against the Wolverines.

Minnesota (+16) vs. Iowa

MINN: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Nebraska, L 14-41
IOWA: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Indiana, W 45-24

Iowa bounced back after the three-point performance at Penn State by racking up 86 points in wins against Northwestern and Indiana the past two weeks. QB Vandenberg completed 26-of-38 passes with six touchdowns and just one interception in those two games while RB Coker has rushed for 263 yards (5.8 YPC) and four touchdowns. Both Vandenberg and Coker should have another big day against this defense that ranks 100th in yards allowed and 116th in points allowed.

Iowa still has a long way to go on defense as the Hawkeyes are surrendering 245 pass YPG (90th) and 162 rush YPG (68th). They have a chance to gain some confidence here against Minnesota. The Gophers have scored just 31 points the past three games and rank near the bottom in every major offensive category.

The Gophers don't have much to brag about these days. They came out of their bye week lifeless against Nebraska last week, falling behind 34-0 by halftime. Minnesota has now dropped four straight games and will be lucky to avoid a 1-11 season. They do, however, have possession of the Floyd of Rosedale trophy after last year's upset win over Iowa. Minnesota outgained Iowa by +168 yards and had +6 first downs.

Something to consider: Iowa has won eight of the last 10 in this series. The Hawkeyes were 12-1 ATS in this series from 1993-2005, but have failed to cover four of the last five - including last year's loss.

Indiana (+8.5) vs. Northwestern

IND: 1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS - Last week: at Iowa, L 24-45
NW: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS - Last week: vs. Penn State, L 24-34

The nightmare season has continued for Northwestern. They've dropped five straight after a 2-0 start and need to win four of the final five games to become Bowl eligible. Indiana is already eliminated from Bowl contention as the Hoosier's only win this season came against FCS South Carolina State.

Northwestern is allowing 39 points per game in Big Ten play. The offense is gaining yards (405 per game) and putting up points (28 points per game), but until this defense starts creating stops, this team is going nowhere. QB Persa (75% with six touchdowns) can put up big numbers in this offense if he can stay healthy.

Indiana has lost four straight Big Ten games. The last three have been by 21, 52, and 21 points. Defensively the Hoosiers have allowed 41+ points in three straight games and this unit ranks at or near the bottom in every major statistical category. If there's a silver lining in all of this, it's that Indiana had a strong contribution from freshman QB Tre Robinson last week in his first start. Robinson passed for 197 yards and a score while rushing for 84 more.

Something to consider: Northwestern has won six of the last seven meetings. However, the largest margin in any of those games was 7 points - average margin of victory of 3.7 points per game.

College Football Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet: Week 9
By Nick Parsons
Covers.com

Rice Owls at Houston Cougars (-27.5, 70.5)

Why Rice will cover: The Owls scored 20 or more in all but one game (at Texas A&M), which means Houston would have to put up 50-plus to cover that spread.

Why Houston will cover: Houston has the top-ranked pass offense (442 ypg) and top-ranked scoring offense (49.3 ppg). Rice’s defense ranks in the bottom 25 in every category.

Points: The under has hit in Rice’s last three and in two of Houston’s last four games.

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines (-13, 52.5)

Why Purdue will cover: The Boilermakers are led by a defense that doesn’t allow big plays, which is how the Wolverines have been winning.

Why Michigan will cover: The team has something to prove after the meltdown two weeks ago at Michigan State. The defense still ranks No. 8 in scoring (14.8 ppg). The home team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series.

Points: Both teams are led by defenses that bend but don’t break.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4, 49.5)

Why Michigan State will cover: The Spartans beat a Wisconsin team that spanked the Huskers earlier this season. MSU is 4-0 ATS recently and 8-2 in its last 10 against teams with a winning record, while NU is 2-5 ATS this season.

Why Nebraska will cover: Nebraska is a new team, outscoring Ohio State 28-7 in the second half of a win and rolling at Minnesota last week. The Huskers don’t lose often at home.

Points: With a Big Ten division title possibly in the balance, both teams are due for breakout offensive games.

Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-11.5, 61.5)

Why Missouri will cover: Texas A&M ranks dead last against the pass, but if the defense is focused on stopping Mizzou’s 39th-ranked pass game, its 12th-ranked run game will get it.

Why Texas A&M will cover: The Aggies offense averages better than 40 ppg and the defense, while poor against the pass, is No. 5 against the run.

Points: The over is 4-3 for both teams, and both teams seem poised to put up yards.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores (+10, 52)

Why Arkansas will cover: Arkansas’ offense can go off at any moment. The team is 11-3 in its last 14 SEC games, while Vandy is 2-8 in its last 10.

Why Vanderbilt will cover: Vandy’s defense has been reliable, and the offense can run the ball and grind the clock if it gets a lead.

Points: If Vandy gets an early lead, the under could hit. If Arkansas comes out firing, the over is favorable.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils (+15, 53.5)

Why Virginia Tech will cover: The Hokies run the ball and stop the run for success. Duke won’t be able to run, and a one-dimensional offense isn’t going to get it done.

Why Duke will cover: Duke’s run defense is decent, and if the Devils get down, they have shown the ability to move the ball through the air.

Points: The under is 8-1-1 in Duke’s last 10 and 10-4-1 in Va. Tech’s last 15.

Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks (-36.5, 69)

Why Washington State will cover: That’s a monster spread for a BCS conference game. Especially against a WSU team ranking 10th in passing and 32nd in scoring (34 ppg).

Why Oregon will cover: The banged-up Ducks are getting healthier every week. Washington State can’t stop them, and the defense doesn’t allow big points.

Points: That’s a big total, but Oregon games have hit higher.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (13.5, 58.5)

Why Oklahoma will cover: The Sooners still have an ultra-explosive offense that ranks No. 4 in passing (379 ypg) and No. 7 in scoring (44.3 ppg). OU is 7-3 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Why Kansas State will cover: K-State is 6-0 ATS in its last six because its defense is solid at every level and QB Collin Klein has emerged as a hard-to-handle dual-threat.

Points: The over has hit in four of the last five for both teams.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (6.5, 53.5)

Why West Virginia will cover: The Mountaineers average 374 yards with the pass. Rutgers’ offense, meanwhile, has been inconsistent at best.

Why Rutgers will cover: Rutgers’ defense has kept teams within distance; the team is 5-2 ATS this season. The Knights saw how Syracuse dismantled WVU last week.

Points: The over is 6-0 for West Virginia in its last six, but the under is 4-0 in Rutgers’ last four.

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14, 79)

Why Baylor will cover: Baylor can score on anyone, averaging 549 ypg (No. 2). The defense isn’t great, but neither is OSU’s.

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU’s offense is third in yards, second in pass yards and second in scoring nationally. Baylor’s defense is in the bottom-third in every major category. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Points: The over is 10-1 in Baylor’s last 11 in conference. There could easily be 1,000 yards of offense.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions (-4.5, 40.5)

Why Illinois will cover: While Penn State’s offense can’t do much, Illinois can run the ball well. PSU is just 2-6 ATS.

Why Penn State will cover: The Lions’ defense is in the top 20 in every category, including fifth in points allowed. Illinois’ offense has been shut down in the last two weeks.

Points: Both teams rely on stout defenses for success.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-3, 49)

Why Florida will cover: The Gators are 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games (this one’s in Jacksonville). The defense has been stout, especially against the pass.

Why Georgia will cover: Florida will struggle to throw on Georgia, so if the Bulldogs can build a lead early, they might win handily.

Points: This game could be a grind-it-out slugfest.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils (-30.5, 56)

Why Colorado will cover: Colorado has struggled, but that’s a good-sized spread against an ASU team that isn’t necessarily lighting the world on fire.

Why Arizona State will cover: ASU’s numbers aren’t terrific, but it still ranks No. 31 in points scored and No. 36 in points allowed. Colorado simply can’t keep up.

Points: ASU piles up the points at home, but can it score enough knowing Colorado isn’t likely to help much?

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-15, 66.5)

Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones have a balanced offense that can keep an undisciplined defense on edge. If ISU has a strength on defense, it’s defending the pass.

Why Texas Tech will cover: Confidence must be high after winning at Oklahoma last week. ISU won’t be able to keep up in a shootout. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games.

Points: The over has hit in six straight for TTU and three of the last four for ISU.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (3.5, 43.5)

Why South Carolina will cover: USC’s defense is No. 1 against the pass, and Tennessee can’t run the ball.

Why Tennessee will cover: After playing LSU and Alabama in the last two weeks, anything else will feel like a breather. Its defense has been decent against teams not named Alabama or LSU.

Points: The over is 12-4-1 in UT’s last 17 at home.

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (7, 60)

Why Stanford will cover: The Cardinal have covered every game this season, and this is the smallest spread for the squad that ranks No. 3 in scoring and No. 4 in scoring defense.

Why USC will cover: USC has shut down offenses not from Arizona or Arizona State, and has an offense led by a strong pass game that is never out of it. We’ll see what Stanford really has.

Points: If USC gets going offensively, the over could be hit by the end of the third quarter.

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (7, 50.5)

Why Wisconsin will cover: Wisconsin wants to prove it can rebound from the Hail-Mary loss to Michigan State and has the horses to punish OSU. If Wisconsin gets ahead and OSU is forced to rally, the Buckeyes rank just 115th in passing. UW is 8-1 ATS in its last nine.

Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes’ defense has no weaknesses, and if the run game can get established, anything can happen, especially at home.

Points: The under is 8-2 in OSU’s last 10, but the over is 4-0 in UW’s last four.

Southern Mississippi Eagles at UTEP Miners (10, 57)

Why Southern Miss will cover: The Eagles are balanced on both sides, ranking 21st in scoring offense and scoring defense. USM is 5-0 ATS in its last five.

Why UTEP will cover: If the Miners can get their ground game going, they have a chance to win SU. UTEP is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against teams with winning records.

Points: The under has been hitting for both teams.

Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3.5, 63.5)

Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six and show no signs slowing offensively. Georgia Tech’s offense has been exposed in recent weeks. We’ll see if Clemson can take advantage.

Why Georgia Tech will cover: Georgia Tech can still run the rock, and Clemson ranks 76th at stopping it. Clemson’s main strength – passing – matches up well with Tech’s top defensive strength.

Points: The over is 7-2 in Clemson’s last nine and was 5-0 in GT’s first five before the under has it in the last three. Could see some major points scored.

Unbeaten Road 'Chalk'
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Week 9 of the 2011 college football season offers us a pair of primetime games with unbeaten road favorites on the road trying to stay in the national-title picture.

Let’s start on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta, where a slumping Georgia Tech (6-2 straight up, 4-3-1 against the spread) squad will host Clemson. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Tigers installed as 3 ½-point favorites with the total in the 62-63 range. Gamblers can take the Yellow Jackets to win outright for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).

Clemson (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) has covered the spread in six straight games, including last week’s 59-38 win over North Carolina as a 9½-point home favorite. Tajh Boy enjoyed another tremendous performance, throwing for 367 yards and five touchdowns without being intercepted. He also added a rushing score.

For the season, Boyd has an incredible 24/4 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. The sophomore signal caller has a dynamic freshman weapon in wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who has 55 receptions for 819 yards and nine TDs. Watkins has 1,391 all-purpose yards and had a kickoff return for a TD that played a crucial role in a comeback win at Maryland two weeks ago.

Junior RB Andre Ellington has a team-high 745 rushing yards and seven TDs while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. However, Ellington has been limited at practice this week with an ankle injury and is listed as ‘questionable.’

Ga. Tech raced out to a 6-0 start but has gone down in back-to-back road games. On Oct. 15, Paul Johnson’s team lost a 24-21 decision at Virginia as a 7 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ Then last week in South Florida, Miami thumped the Yellow Jackets 24-7 as a three-point home favorite.

The Hurricanes limited Ga. Tech’s offense to merely 211 yards of total offense. QB Tevin Washington was held to only 36 rushing yards on 20 carries and he threw a costly interception.

Washington played extremely well in Tech’s first six wins. For the season, he has 460 rushing yards and nine TDs. The junior signal caller has 1,139 passing yards and a 10/5 TD-INT ratio.

Junior RB Orwin Smith leads the Jackets in rushing with 516 yards and eight TDs. Smith averages an eye-opening 12.3 YPC. He also has 12 receptions for 286 yards and one TD.

As a home underdog during Johnson’s four-year tenure, Ga. Tech has posted a 1-1 record both SU and ATS. Clemson owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite on Dabo Swinney’s watch.

When these teams met last season, Clemson captured a 27-13 win as a 4½-point home favorite. However, the Tigers lost 30-27 in their last trip to Atlanta in 2009 and also lost to the Jackets that same year by a 39-34 count in the ACC Championship Game.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for Clemson this year, 1-1 in its two road assignments. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 overall, 3-1 in its home games. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these ACC adversaries.

This game will come off the board at 8:00 p.m. Eastern and will be a part of ESPN’s Game Plan package (channel 789 on DirecTV).

Stanford (7-0 SU, 7-0 ATS) is another unbeaten road favorite with a dangerous game Saturday night. David Shaw’s team will come to The Coliseum to face a hot Southern Cal squad.

Stanford has won its seven games by 26 points or more, scoring 44 points or more on its own in six of those contests. The Cardinal blasted a 5-1 Washington team by a 65-21 count as a 20½-point home ‘chalk’ last week.

Junior QB Andrew Luck, who is the plus-150 favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at Sportsbook.com, threw a pair of TDs to improve his TD-INT ratio to 20/3. Stepfan Taylor burned the Huskies for 138 yards and one score on just 10 carries.

Taylor has rushed for 697 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.3 YPC. His back-ups, Anthony Wilkerson and Tyler Gaffney, have combined to rush for 465 yards and eight scores.

USC (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) has won three in a row since getting routed by Arizona St. in Tempe. The Trojans were extremely impressive last week, going to South Bend and emerging with a 31-17 win as 9½-point road underdogs.

Junior QB Matt Barkley threw for 224 yards and three TDs without getting picked off. Curtis McNeal carried the load on the ground, rushing 24 times for 118 yards.

For the year, Barkley has 19 TD passes compared to only four interceptions.

Stanford has been dynamite as a road favorite recently, going 7-1 ATS in its last eight such spots. The Cardinal has a 9-3 spread record in its last 12 games as a single-digit favorite (regardless of home/away).

USC has only been a home ‘dog once on Lane Kiffin’s watch. In that spot, it got thumped 53-32 as a 6½-point home ‘dog.

When these Pac-12 rivals met in Palo Alto last season, Stanford won a 37-35 decision but the Trojans took the cash as double-digit underdogs.

The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for USC, 2-2 in its home games. As for Stanford, it has seen the ‘under’ go 4-3 overall, 3-0 in its road tilts.

Most spots are listing Stanford as an eight-point favorite with a total of 60 1/2. The Trojans are plus-250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).

ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

A dilemma many bettors face with this week’s college football action is trying to figure out who they trust more after a recent turn of events. How will two of the powerhouse teams in the nation, that experienced their first loss last week, respond this Saturday on the road?

Kansas State is undefeated and has gone 6-1 against the spread this season, but is that enough to sway the public against an Oklahoma squad that has the potential to run it up quickly on anyone. How about if Las Vegas dangle’s a 14-point head start for the home team?

Fourteen points was definitely enough to attract some sharp early action on Kansas State and the game is currently Oklahoma -13 and 13 ½ everywhere in town. But what about the public money? Who are they taking?

So far, it’s been kind of an even game in ticket counts. Despite Kansas State being an underdog in four of its last five games, the public is starting to believe in the school. It also doesn’t hurt that the public won with K-State last week laying points at Kansas, one of the first times this season they were on them, while also likely losing with Oklahoma.

Wisconsin is coming off a heart-breaking loss at Michigan State, their first real road game of the season. Now they have to travel to Columbus to face a Buckeyes squad that looks like they are slowly coming around with Braxton Miller at quarterback. Who will be more focused? The team that just lost their national title hopes or the team still stinging from losing their national title shot last year at the hands of the Badgers.

The Wynn Resort opened Wisconsin as an 8½-point favorite Sunday and it was quickly taken, pushing the game down to -7½, which is what most sports books opened with on Monday morning. Since then, it’s come down to a strong -7 almost everywhere.

It’s an odd occurrence to see anyone giving Ohio State points at Columbus, especially a touchdown. In fact, I can’t recall the last time the Buckeyes EVER got that many at home.

After USC dominated Notre Dame at South Bend last week, there is a small fraction of bettors that believe USC will keep the roll going and give Stanford a hard time. The Wynn opened Stanford -8½ and were immediately bet against settling the number at -7½, which is the number most sports books opened with. The number is currently at -8 at most books.

USC’s only blemish came at the hands of a crazed ASU home crowd. But since that loss, have put together a nice little three game roll. Prior to the ASU loss (22-43), the Trojans were struggling on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, Stanford remains the only team to be perfect against the number (7-0), but there are those who believe their record is just a reflection of not having played anyone this season. That was the same thing said last week before disposing of Washington by 44 points (65-21). This week’s game is the first time all season that Stanford's spread is under double digits.

Have you seen this Baylor-Oklahoma State total of 79? At first glance, you look at it and think, ‘no way they’ll get that many.’ But then you start checking the numbers, such as averaging 92.9 points between them on the season, and think, ’that total is way too low.’

Cal-Neva currently has 80 on the board and by kickoff you can expect most sports books to be there and higher as well.

The Wynn opened Oklahoma State as an 18-point favorite and by Monday morning, most everyone else in town opened up -14½ where it has stayed steady with a few sprinklings of -14.

Arizona fires its coach (Mike Stoops) and immediately looks like the pesky team from last year. The Wildcats sent UCLA (48-12) to a new low last Thursday causing many to rapidly adjust their power ratings on Arizona. This week, Washington opened as an 8-point favorite at the Wynn and are now -4½ with almost every other Vegas book at -4.

While we have seen Washington look terrific all season long, we only have one thing to go off of with Arizona, its last game. To be fair, the Wildcats did have a brutal schedule to start the year with losses at Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon and USC. I suppose it’s the bad loss at Oregon State that still has Arizona smelling bad.

South Carolina will now have to show they can move on without superstar running back Marcus Lattimore, a player who is worth about five points alone in the spread. The Wynn opened the Gamecocks as 6½-point road favorites at Tennessee and Vols money came in settling the line at -4½ by Monday morning. The Las Vegas Hilton currently has the low number of -3½.

Rick Neuhiesel’s coaching career at UCLA is hanging by a thread. Everyone has the feeling the coach will be gone after this season, so how does that motivate a team for an individual game? Do they play hard for themselves and school pride or do they stop listening to the coach who has guided them to embarrassment? Bettors apparently think UCLA has something in the tank for its home game against California this week. The Hilton opened Cal as a 6-point road favorite and the number is currently down to -5.

Notre Dame opened Sunday at the Wynn as a 17½-point favorite for its home game against Navy and were bet up to -20. The Hilton currently has the game at -21½.

Auburn has been bet from a 10½-point home favorite over Mississippi to -12.

The MAC is always good for a few major line moves. This week we have three games:

-- Central Michigan opened -10 at the Hilton for their game at Akron and has been bet against down to -7½.
-- Bowling Green started at -5 for its game at Kent State and it’s now -3½.
-- Miami, Ohio opened -8 at the Wynn for its home game against Buffalo and is now -5.

LSU and Alabama both have the week off before their big game next Saturday from Tuscaloosa. The Hilton opened Alabama -6½ and LSU money has come in dropping the game to -5.

Stanford at USC: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (+7.5, 60)

THE STORY: Stanford has been on a roll and the No. 3 Cardinal face their biggest challenge thus far when they visit Southern Cal. Stanford boasts the nation’s longest winning streak at 15 games and has won each of its past 10 contests by 25 or more points. The Cardinal, who routed Washington 65-21 last week, are off to their best start since going 9-0 in 1951. The Trojans have won three consecutive games and won at Notre Dame last week. USC is 4-0 at home this season, but Stanford has won in its last two visits to the Los Angeles Coliseum.

LINE MOVES: Stanford opened as a 8.5-point favorite but has been bet down to 7.5. The total opened around 60 points and has remained fairly steady.

ABOUT USC (6-1, 3-1 Pac-12 South, 4-3 ATS): Junior quarterback Matt Barkley and sophomore receiver Robert Woods seemingly play catch at will. Woods has 72 receptions for 902 yards through seven games and appears to be a shoo-in to break Keyshawn Johnson’s school-record 102 catches in 1995. Barkley has thrown for 2,006 yards and 19 touchdowns against only four interceptions. The Trojans rank 11th in rushing defense (91.1 yards per game) but only 104th in passing defense (265.1). Junior defensive end Nick Perry has a team-leading four sacks. Sophomore running back Dillon Baxter, the school’s top recruit two seasons ago, left the program earlier this week.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-0, 5-0 Pac-12 North, 7-0 ATS): So much for the offense being all Andrew Luck - the Cardinal set a school-record with 446 rushing yards in the rout of Washington as Luck threw for a season-low 169 yards. The probable No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL draft is having a fantastic season with 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Luck has completed 71.8 percent of his passes and Stanford ranks second in scoring offense at 48.6 points per game. Junior running back Stepfan Taylor has a team-best 697 rushing yards. Defensively, Stanford ranks fourth in scoring defense at 12.6 points per game and third in rushing defense (75.6). The Cardinal have 25 sacks, including a team-leading 5.5 from senior linebacker Chase Thomas.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USC leads the series 59-27-3. Stanford won last year 37-35 on a last-second field goal.

2. Stanford has allowed two sacks, lowest in the nation.

3. Barkley passed for 390 yards against Stanford last season with Woods catching 12 passes for 224 yards.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Southern California.
* Over is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Southern California.
* Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

PREDICTION: Stanford 30, USC 27 - Stanford proves to have just a tad more Luck by outlasting Barkley and the Trojans in an epic nationally televised showdown.

College Football Betting Weather Report: Week 9
By Covers.com

It’s been a pretty tame October as far as weather is concerned. However, we may have spoke too soon.

There are some nasty forecasts in the cards for Week 9 of the college football season, and did someone mention the S-word? Check out how weather will impact your bets this weekend:

Central Michigan Chippewas at Akron Zips (+7.5, 50.5)

The forecast for Akron is calling for a 41 percent chance of rain and game-time temperatures in the low 40s.

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Florida State Seminoles (-18.5, 54)

Winds will reach speeds of up to 15 mph in Tallahassee, blowing north from corner to corner.

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4, 49.5)

The forecast in Lincoln is calling for winds of speeds up to 15 mph, blowing south from end to end, for Saturday’s Big Ten battle.

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan Wolverines (-14, 53)

There is a 35 chance of thundershowers in Ann Arbor Saturday.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Duke Blue Devils (+14.5, 53)

There is an 88 percent chance of showers in Durham, with winds of up to 14 mph blowing WNW across the field.

Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes (+3.5, 39.5)

The forecast in Kent is calling for a 41 percent chance of rain and game-time temperatures in the low 40s.

Ball State Cardinals at Western Michigan Broncos (-12, 58)

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Waldo Stadium. There’s a 30 percent chance of showers with winds reaching speeds of 15 mph, blowing WNW across the field.

Boston College Eagles at Maryland Terrapins (-7, 50.5)

The only thing chillier than Terps fans’ comments about Randy Edsall is the weather in College Park. Snow is in the forecast, with a 100 percent chance of rain or white stuff. Winds will get up around 13 mph, blowing north from corner to corner at Capital One Field.

Tulane Green Wave at East Carolina Pirates (-17, 55)

Rain is in the forecast for Greenville, with a 65 percent chance of showers. However, skies are expected to clear around halftime, with wind reaching speeds of 15 mph and blowing WNW from end to end.

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5, 48.5)

There will be a 14-mph wind blowing through the World’s Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville Saturday. There is also a 24 percent chance of rain.

Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-21.5, 62.5)

Rain is in the forecast for South Bend, with a 20 percent chance of showers and gamer-time temperatures in the mid 40s.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions (-5.5, 38.5)

Happy Valley could be snowy valley with snow in the forecast Saturday. There’s a 100 percent chance of rain or flurries, with game-time temperatures in the mid 30s.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+6.5, 52)

Rain is expected to turn into snow midway through this Big East grudge match. There’s a 97 percent chance of precipitation and a cold north wind blowing of speeds up to 15 mph.

Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats (+13.5, 58.5)

Winds will get up to speeds of 20 mph in Manhattan Saturday, blowing SSW from corner to corner.

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-14, 79)

Passing could be tough against the 15-mph winds in the forecast for Stillwater Saturday. Gust are expected to blow south across Boone Pickens Stadium.

SMU Mustangs at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-2.5, 58.5)

It’s no Golden Hurricane, but the forecast is calling for winds of up to 15 mph in Tulsa, blowing SSW from corner to corner.

Memphis Tigers at UCF Knights (-28.5, 48.5)

The forecast in Orlando is calling for a 36 percent chance of showers, clearing off towards the fourth quarter Saturday. Winds will blow north at speeds of up to 15 mph, from end to end.