College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 1
By Andrew Lange
Sportsmemo.com
With Penn State holding a narrow 13-10 lead late in the third quarter of Saturday's game against Syracuse, the Orange came up with a forced fumble on big PSU pass play. Syracuse's Allen Robinson looked like he had a clear lane to the end zone, a score that would have given his team a 17-13 lead. Instead, PSU offensive tackle Garry Gilliam (a converted tight end) made a great open field, touchdown saving tackle. Syracuse took over at the PSU 27-yard line and ended up missing a field goal. Early in the fourth quarter, Penn State kicked a field goal, tacked on a touchdown, and held on for the 23-17 win. The Nittany Lions failed to cover (-8) but had Gilliam not made that play, the straight up outcome of the game may have been different.
Favored by -34, Ohio State's Urban Meyer was all business (and perhaps all dick) when he went for and converted two, two-point conversions on the Buckeyes' first two touchdowns of the game. Perhaps some karma involved as Buffalo snagged an easy ATS victory in the 40-20 loss. Boosters Beware! Meyer is now 2-6 ATS when laying double-digits since arriving in Columbus.
Last season, Iowa at times toyed with the idea of playing up-tempo but in the end, the Hawkeyes were one of the slowest teams in the country at 66 plays per game. On Saturday, Iowa ran 80 plays and produced 458 yards – 28 yards better than 2012's top effort. But before we anoint Iowa as "up-tempo" note that in last year's game against NIU, the Hawkeyes ran 82 plays but got progressively slower as the season wore on. So much so that they ran 60 or fewer plays four times.
This is why box scores can be deceiving. According to Yahoo Sports, Purdue's lone touchdown drive in its 42-7 loss to Cincinnati went 6 plays for 88 yards. They covered 88 yards but got some help from the Bearcats. Purdue was actually forced to punt but picked up fumble and were handed the ball on the Cincinnati 10-yard line and eventually scored. The Boilermakers' second half drives resulted in punt, interception, fumble, downs, downs, fumble, and end of game. And in watching the game, Cinci was not particularly sharp with three turnovers and a sluggish first half. Could be a long year in West Lafayette.
I made a bet and released to my clients a play on Marshall-Miami-Ohio under 67. There were numerous reasons for the play but a majority of my logic was based on the Thundering Herd improving on the defensive end – not difficult considering they allowed 43.1 ppg last year. All told, my handicap was fairly accurate as Marshall held the RedHawks to nine first downs, 239 total yards, and 14 points. The problem however was that Marshall's offense may be faster and improved. The Herd racked up nearly 600 yards on a whopping 94 plays. With five minutes to go in the first half, I was sitting under 67 with a 7-7 score. But when Marshall has the ball, time essentially stands still. The Herd rolled up a quick score and so did Miami-Ohio leaving the halftime score 14-14. In the second half, Marshall did whatever it wanted on offense and were essentially scoring at will. After a pick six with 10 minutes to go in the game, my once strong bet looked dead in the water with Marshall leading 52-14. Luckily, both teams wanted to get out of dodge and the clock finally started to churn. But not until on 3-and-10, up 38, in the waning seconds did Marshall's back-up QB attempt a pass into the end zone. It was somehow picked off by Miami-Ohio and the game landed 66. I'll obviously take the winner but I don't think I'll be playing very many Marshall games under moving forward even with totals routinely be north of 70.
Wasn't Oklahoma's Blake Bell supposed to be the running threat? Trevor Knight earned the starting job over Bell and ended up as the team's leading rusher (13 for 103, long of 24) in the Sooners' 34-0 win over UL-Monroe. Unfortunately for Knight, passing the ball proved extremely difficult as he finished 11-of-28 for 86 yards.
They were in control for much of the game so we won't put too much stock into Arkansas' run-pass ratio. However, it is clear that Bret Bielema is going to try to establish the run this season. The Razorbacks rushed for 292 yards on 51 carries in their 34-14 win over UL-Lafayette. Last season, Arkansas never attempted more than 40 rushes in a game.
It is hard to get a read on just how "big" the four major FCS upsets were this past weekend because the betting markets were so crazy. On the surface it looked like CRIS just posted a number (any number) and with lower limits was willing to roll the dice. However, there were still betting lines and obvious action on those games so while the numbers may have been "soft" we do have something to go on.
Eastern Washington +25.5 at Oregon State
McNeese State +20.5 at South Florida
Northern Iowa +9.5 at Iowa State
Eastern Illinois +14 at San Diego State
North Dakota State +12.5 at Kansas State
What is funny is while these upsets managed to garner a lot of pub and rightfully so there were hardly any FBS vs. FBS upsets. In fact, the biggest we could spot was Texas State's (+7.5) outright win at Southern Miss who was 0-12 last year. Wyoming was close, losing 37-34 as 30-point dogs at Nebraska. However, it is safe to say that more than a few big upsets loom on the horizon given the nature of college football.
4th Quarter Covers - Week 1
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the opening weekend of college football. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
Utah (-1) 30, Utah State 26: Utah State took a 23-14 early in the third quarter as a slight underdog, but Utah had the lead by the end of the third quarter, taking advantage of a successful onside kick to score 10 points in less than two minutes. After trading field goals in the fourth quarter, Utah forced a punt and then took the clock down to 19 seconds before kicking a field goal to get past the spread as a Hail Mary from the Aggies fell short.
Mississippi (-3½) 39, Vanderbilt 35: The SEC opener delivered an amazing finish as both teams squandered leads early in the game. Early in the fourth quarter, Mississippi took a 32-28 lead and it appeared that might hold as Vanderbilt faced a 4th-and-18 in its own territory with just two minutes to go. The Commodores amazingly converted and then took advantage of a blown coverage on the next play for the go-ahead touchdown. On the second play for Mississippi after getting the ball back, Jeff Scott broke one the great runs of the weekend for a 75-yard score. Vanderbilt took the ensuing kickoff to midfield but an interception ended the game.
USC (-24½) 30, Hawaii 13: After an ugly start to the game, USC managed to go up 30-5 late in the fourth quarter after completing an 80-yard drive, seemingly earning a late cover. With less than a minute to go, Hawaii connected for a 60-yard touchdown play that took the underdog cover back for the Warriors.
Miami, FL (-31½) 34, Florida Atlantic 6: The Hurricanes led by 28 in the fourth quarter sitting at 1st and goal at the Florida Atlantic 2-yard line. The Owls would hold as Miami failed to punch the ball in with four straight rushing attempts from Gus Edwards, preserving a narrow underdog cover for the Owls. Florida Atlantic put together a 16-play drive on the subsequent possession, but also wound up without points in the scoreless fourth quarter.
Texas Tech (-4½) 41, SMU 23: The Mustangs were a popular underdog and with a late third quarter rushing touchdown, SMU was within four. Texas Tech dominated in the fourth quarter, posting three touchdowns on three consecutive drives and putting the game out of reach before SMU scored again.
Wisconsin (-43) 45, Massachusetts 0: Covering a massive spread seemed unlikely for the Badgers with just a 17-0 lead at halftime. Wisconsin hit three big touchdown plays in the third quarter and got an interception on the only productive drive for the Minutemen in the second half. Wisconsin would add an early fourth quarter touchdown and it would be just enough.
Northern Illinois (+3) 30, Iowa 27: The Hawkeyes appeared poised to take a narrow win against the Huskies for the second year in a row, but this year, Northern Illinois delivered the comeback. Iowa led by four entering the fourth and by seven after a field goal with less than seven minutes to go. Northern Illinois had struggled to move the ball most of the second half, but took just six plays to deliver the tying score. After trading punts, Iowa gave Northern Illinois the ball in Iowa territory after an interception with just over a minute to go. The Huskies burned most of the clock and hit the go-ahead field goal for the upset win.
Virginia (+3) 19, BYU 16: The Cavaliers took a 12-7 lead into the fourth quarter in a defensive battle with BYU. The Cougars would get an elusive touchdown with just over six minutes to go to lead by one as they failed on the 2-point conversion. BYU was able to quickly add three more points after Virginia fumbled on the kickoff return, but settling for the field goal would prove costly. The BYU defense did its part as Virginia was held to a three-and-out and another punt. BYU had the ball with the lead, but on a key third down play with less than three minutes to go, an interception gave the Cavaliers great field position and it took just one play to punch in for a touchdown. The game continued with two more possessions for the Cougars, but Virginia held on.
Oklahoma State (-13) 21, Mississippi State 3: The Cowboys had an ugly start to the game on offense, scoreless until late in the second quarter. After punting on the first five possessions of the game, the offense was productive on five consecutive drives, resulting in three touchdowns, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs in MSU territory. A touchdown early in the fourth quarter put Oklahoma State past the spread for the first time, but it appeared the Bulldogs would answer, getting inside the 15-yard line, but ultimately leaving empty handed after a missed field goal. Mississippi State went into Oklahoma State territory on its next possession as well, but an interception late in the game secured the cover for Oklahoma State despite just 21 points scored.
Texas (-44) 56, New Mexico State 7: With just over two minutes left in the first half, New Mexico State went up 7-0 on highly ranked Texas, making a cover for the favorite look impossible with the over six-touchdown spread. The Longhorns incredibly scored twice in 40 seconds of game clock to take the lead into the half. Texas took control from there with three touchdowns in each of the third and fourth quarters, getting the final touchdown with just over a minute to go to get past the spread.
Penn State (-9) 23, Syracuse 17: Penn State led just 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but the Lions managed to gain some distance, adding a long field goal and then connecting on a 54-yard touchdown pass to lead 23-10. Syracuse was given another chance as an interception was returned to the Penn State 1-yard line, setting up an easy score that flipped the cover with just seven minutes to go. Neither team seriously threatened to score the rest of the way.
LSU (-6) 37, TCU 27: In the big late game in Arlington, LSU led most of the way, taking a 30-17 lead into the fourth quarter. A fumble recovery deep in LSU territory gave TCU a second wind and the Frogs were within six a few plays later. TCU forced a punt and then put together a productive drive, but ultimately had to settle for a field goal to trail, 30-27 with less than eight minutes to go. A 75-yard kickoff return gave the momentum back to LSU and the Tigers converted with a touchdown on a big third down play. TCU had to punt on its next possession and never got the ball back.
UCLA (-21) 58, Nevada 20: While the Bruins had big numbers on offense, they created a bit of a deceptive final score with late touchdowns. UCLA led by just four at the half and by just 17 into the fourth quarter, but three Bruins touchdowns late in the game pushed the margin to 38 points and past the spread as Nevada had just 15 net yards on its final four possessions.
Northwestern (-6½) 44, California 30: Cal led 24-20 in this game before an interception return for a touchdown sparked the Wildcats to a 27-24 lead entering the fourth quarter. The Bears tied the game early in the fourth quarter, but another interception return touchdown allowed Northwestern to pull away for the win and cover in a game that was closer than it looked and featured a yardage edge for the Bears.
Colorado (+3) 41, Colorado State 27: The final score makes this look like a convincing win for the Buffaloes in the opening week rivalry game, but the Rams led 24-23 entering the fourth quarter. A long fumble return touchdown gave Colorado a bit of a margin and a 75-yard pass play to immediately answer a Colorado State field goal with less than four minutes to go put the game away. Colorado did dominate the statistics, but a punt return touchdown helped to keep the Rams in the game.
Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 1
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
Week 1 of the 2013 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the land and see how they did from an ATS (Against-the-Spread) perspective in their first go at it of the year.
(Results in parentheses represent SU and ATS Results)
1) Alabama (W-W vs. Virginia Tech 35-10)
The Tide only rolled to a cover in this one because of two returns for touchdowns.
2) Ohio State (W-L vs. Buffalo 40-20)
Braxton Miller looks like the real deal, but after going up 23-0 after 1, the Bucks were outscored by the Bulls the rest of the way for an ATS defeat.
3) Oregon (W-W vs. Nicholls State 66-3)
Nicholls State never had a chance. Oregon had the ball for just 19 minutes and rolled up 772 yards of offense.
4) Stanford (Bye)
5) Georgia (L-L vs. Clemson 38-35)
The Dawgs have some regrouping to do after suffering their first loss of the season, especially with South Carolina on tap.
6) South Carolina (W-W vs. North Carolina 27-10)
Can SC be the #2 team in the land after this week? Beating Georgia for a second straight cover might do the trick.
7) Texas A&M (W-L vs. Rice 52-31)
Johnny Football nearly led A&M all the way back for a cover after the Aggies fell behind in the first half, but his antics on the field were more of a story than Rice's cover.
8) Clemson (W-W vs. Georgia 38-35)
No team had a bigger ATS win than Clemson last week, as the Tigers beat a Top 5 team and made a good case for the ACC to be a contender in 2013.
9) Louisville (W-W vs. Ohio 49-7)
The Cards blew out the Bobcats for a cover in this one, but there are bigger challenges on the horizon.
10) Florida (W-L vs. Toledo 24-6)
This is the same old Florida offense. The Gators needed to score more than 24 to cover a spread of 23.5.
11) Florida State (W-W vs. Pittsburgh 41-13)
Welcome to the big time, Jameis Winston! After a near perfect season debut, expect to hear the Winston for Heisman talk banter all week.
12) LSU (W-W vs. TCU 37-27)
The Bayou Bengals looked as good on offense in this game as they have since their National Championship season.
13) Oklahoma State (W-W vs. Mississippi State 21-3)
It was supposed to be a shootout, but we're more impressed with the Pokes' 'D', which ensured this cover.
14) Notre Dame (W-L vs. Temple 28-6)
Irish eyes were never meant to smile on Notre Dame bettors on Saturday, as the Golden Domers were never good enough to cover 30.
15) Texas (W-W vs. New Mexico State 56-7)
It was a shaky start, but UT finished with over 700 yards to cover the Aggies.
16) Oklahoma (W-W vs. Louisiana Monroe 34-0)
The defense looks great for the Sooners, but Trevor Knight is going to need to be much, much better if they are going to cover future games.
17) Michigan (W-W vs. Central Michigan 59-9)
Central Michigan was literally never a match for Devin Gardner and the gang.
18) Nebraska (W-L vs. Wyoming 37-34)
Nearly a huge upset. The Black Shirts 'D' has a lot of work to do to keep the Huskers in the Big Ten race this year.
19) Boise State (L-L vs. Washington 38-6)
The Broncos suffered their worst loss of the Chris Petersen era on Saturday in Seattle.
20) TCU (L-L vs. LSU 37-27)
This was a chance for the Horned Frogs to stick with the big boys, and they just weren't able to stack up.
21) UCLA (W-W vs. Nevada 58-20)
Really, most of the Pac-12 looked good this past week, so it shouldn't be a surprise that Brett Hundley and the gang roared to victory.
22) Northwestern (W-W vs. Cal 44-30)
Both Venric Mark and Kain Colter were hurt in the cover against the Golden Bears.
23) Wisconsin (W-W vs. Massachusetts 45-0)
Yawn. It was UMass. Show us you can beat some real foes, Wisky.
24) USC (W-L vs. Hawaii 30-13)
The Trojans have big problems at the quarterback position.
25) Oregon State (L-L vs. Eastern Washington 49-46)
OSU became the third ranked team in the country to ever lose to an FCS foe.
Week 1 Rewind
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
All college football fans, especially those fond of making wagers, are always fired up for the Thursday slate of Week 1 games. However, we’re rarely treated to the excitement we got with this year’s set of contests.
In the lid-lifter, South Carolina took control against North Carolina early in the first quarter by racing out to a 17-0 lead. The Tar Heels were fortunate to get a bogus facemask call when the Gamecocks had them stopped in their own territory on a long third-down play.
UNC capitalized on the opportunity and sliced the deficit to 17-7 by finishing the drive. The Tar Heels trailed 20-7 at intermission but got a field goal on their opening drive in the third quarter.
South Carolina answered when running back Mike Davis busted off right tackle for a 75-yard touchdown drive. The scoring stalled at that point and the ‘Cocks held a 27-10 advantage with 8:20 remaining when lightning in the area forced the game to be temporarily postponed.
For gamblers supporting South Carolina as an 11-point favorite and ‘under’ backers, this provided for more than an hour of anxiety. As I learned in 2002 when the lights went out in Vegas for a Wisconsin-UNLV game, a game is not official for betting purposes until it has been played for 55 minutes.
Therefore, the game was more than three minutes shy of being official. Like that night at Sam Boyd Stadium, if the game wasn’t resumed, all wagers would be ruled no-plays (the same as a push).
That didn’t happen, but the anxiety for South Carolina backers remained when UNC was threatening with a first-and-goal opportunity in the final two minutes. But the ‘Cocks were able to mount a goal-line stand and when Kelcy Quarles stopped UNC quarterback Bryn Renner at the one on fourth and goal, at last South Carolina supporters could relax.
Next, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss waged what was probably the most entertaining game of Week 1. Facing a second-and-10 play with 1:20 remaining while trailing 35-32, Rebels’ coach Hugh Freeze called a draw play for RB Jeff Scott, who somehow found the corner and raced for a 75-yard TD run.
Ole Miss took the cash as a three-point road favorite and the ‘over’ was an easy winner. But the Rebels weren’t all smiled following their comeback victory. They lost their best offensive lineman Aaron Morris to a season-ending injury, while leading returning tackler, LB Denzel Nkemdiche, suffered an injury that’ll keep him out for the next 4-6 weeks.
Thursday had one more thriller that went deep into Friday morning on the East coast. Fresno St. played from behind for most of the night yet captured a 52-51 overtime win over Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights had a chance to win at the end of regulation, but a potential game-winning field goal sailed wide right. The Bulldogs scored on the first play of the extra session, but RU answered with a TD of its own. At that point, Kyle Flood elected to go for two and I was fine with that decision.
The conversion failed, however, and the Scarlet Knights had to check into the Heartbreak Hotel before heading back to New Jersey. They did easily cover the number as 10.5-point underdogs, but their money-line backers were unable to cash a ticket in the +330 to +380 range.
Fresno’s Derek Carr threw for 470 yards and five TDs. RU’s Gary Nova also had five TD passes.
Clemson has now won back-to-back games over two of the SEC’s premier programs in LSU and Georgia. Tajh Boyd threw three TD passes and ran for two more scores to lead the Tigers to a 38-35 win over UGA as two-point home underdogs Saturday night.
Boyd might be the early Heisman leader following that performance, but junior WR Sammy Watkins could be in that mix, too. Watkins had six receptions for 127 yards and turned a short pass into a 77-yard score.
When UGA’s Aaron Murray provided the final score of the game on a one-yard plunge with 1:19 left, ‘under’ backers (closed at 71 points) had to rip up their tickets as the 73 combined points slipped ‘over.’ The onsides kick failed and Clemson ran out the clock.
Georgia doesn’t have any time fret over the defeat because South Carolina will invade Athens on Saturday. The Bulldogs have dropped three in a row to the ‘Cocks, who will have two extra days to prepare compared to UGA.
Alabama’s Christion Jones stole the show at the Ga. Dome by scoring three TDs in a 35-10 win over Va. Tech as a 21-point favorite. Jones had a pair of special-teams scores and Vinnie Sunseri had a pick-six, but the Hokies actually produced more offense (212-206) compared to the two-time defending national champs.
Nick Saban had to be furious by the mediocre play of his offensive line. The Crimson Tide has two weeks to get the offense right before a monster game at Texas A&M.
The total had a wild result for ‘Bama-VT. The number was 45.5 for most of the week and a few spots spent some time at 46. Therefore, my pick on VI of the ‘over’ (at 45.5) was a loser. However, the total closed at 45 and some books were offering 44.5 early Saturday afternoon.
With ‘Bama leading 28-10 at intermission for 38 combined points, ‘over’ supporters were looking good. But A.J. McCarron’s TD pass to Jones midway through the third quarter was the last score of the game. Therefore, some gamblers pushed but most ‘over’ backers who got their bet in early suffered a bad beat.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Week 1 Goat Teams: Oregon St. lost at home to Eastern Washington, UConn lost at home to Towson (by 15!), South Florida lost at home to McNeese St. (by a 53-21 count!!), Kansas St. lost at home to North Dakota St., Iowa St. lost at home to No. Iowa and San Diego St. went down to Eastern Illinois.
Week 1 Studs: Tajh Boyd (Clemson QB), Marcus Mariota (Oregon QB), Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville QB), Lache Seastrunk (Baylor RB), Brett Hundley (UCLA QB), Dominique Easley and Ronald Powell (Florida d-linemen), Derek Carr (Fresno St. QB), Khalil Mack (Buffalo LB), Jordan Taylor (Rice WR), Collin Ellis (Northwestern LB) and Jordan Matthews (Vandy WR).
Week 1 Duds: Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina DE), Colton Browning (ULM QB), A.J. McCarron (Alabama QB), Tyler Tettleton (Ohio QB) and Georgia long snapper (on crucial bad snap on short field goal in second half).
Georgia WR Malcolm Mitchell is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered during an end-zone celebration during the loss at Clemson. Mitchell was UGA’s leading returning receiver after snagging 40 catches for 572 yards and four TDs last season.
Northwestern starting CB Daniel Jones was lost to a season-ending injury in Saturday’s 44-30 win at California. The Wildcats host Syracuse this week and might do so without QB/WR Kain Colter, who is listed as ‘doubtful.’ Also, keep an eye on the status of RB and special-teams ace Venric Mark.
Games to Watch
Florida at Miami – The Hurricanes are 3-0 ATS as home underdogs during Al Golden’s tenure, while UF is 2-1 ATS as a road favorite on Will Muschamp’s watch. The Gators were missing three defensive starters when they blanked a quality Toledo offense in a 24-6 win. All three of those guys (LB Antonio Morrison, CB Loucheiz Purifoy and DT Darious Cummings) will return this week. Also, starting RB Matt Jones is expected to return (‘probable’). Miami will be without last year’s second-leading WR Rashawn Scott (shoulder). The key for Florida will be containing Miami star RB Duke Johnson. Heat will be a major factor for this noon Eastern kick on ESPN. Most spots have UF favored by three as of Monday afternoon.
Texas at BYU – These teams met in Austin two years ago with Texas winning a 17-16 decision, but BYU took the cash as a seven-point underdog. Most spots have the Longhorns favored by seven. BYU had more offensive yardage (362-223) and won the turnover battle (2-1), but it still dropped a 19-16 decision at Virginia as a 2.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Cougars were missing their best player, WR Cody Hoffman, who remains ‘questionable’ for Texas due to a strained hamstring. BYU has been a home underdog just five times during Bronco Mendenhall’s nine-year tenure, going 2-3 ATS. Since 2008, Texas has compiled an 11-6 spread record as a road favorite.
Oregon at Virginia – These schools are meeting for the first time. On Monday, most spots had Oregon installed as an expensive 21.5-point favorite. UVA now owns a 3-6 ATS record in nine previous home underdog situations under Mike London. The Cavs will be facing a much more dynamic offense that the one they held in check (BYU) last weekend. The Ducks have playmakers galore in QB Marcus Mariota and RB De’Anthony Thomas. They have covered the number in eight consecutive games as road favorites.
Notre Dame at Michigan – Most books have Michigan as the 3.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Wolverines blasted Central Michigan 59-9 in their opener. Meanwhile, Notre Dame failed to cover in a 28-6 home win over Temple. The Irish won 13-6 as a six-point home favorite when they squared off in South Bend last year. In the last encounter at The Big House in 2011, Denard Robinson rallied the Wolverines to a 35-31 win as a 3.5-point home underdog. As a home favorite on Brady Hoke’s watch, Michigan owns an 8-5 spread record. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS as a road ‘dog during Brian Kelly’s tenure.
San Jose St. at Stanford – When these schools met in Palo Alto last season, San Jose St. nearly pulled an upset in a 20-17 loss as a 24.5-point underdog. The Spartans had more total offense (287-280) than the Cardinal. San Jose St. beat Sacramento St. by a 24-0 count in its opener. The Spartans, who finished 2012 with an 11-2 record both SU and ATS, have one of the nation’s best QBs in David Fales, who threw for 4,193 yards and 33 TDs last season. Stanford star LB Shayne Skov won’t play due to a one-game suspension. The Cardinal didn’t play in Week 1. Most books have David Shaw’s squad favored by 26.5.